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Heresy 221 and the Children of Winterfell


Black Crow

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3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

Although this is not working with the flow of the conversation, I want to talk more about naming children, especially naming rights. The only other Sansa we know is another Stark, so it is safe to conclude that Ned named all children. Why didn't Cat name any child ? Robert and Cersei have this turned around, Joeffrey, Mycella and Tommen are not exactly Baratheon names. Why didn't Robert care ? 

I'm not sure sure if GRRM wasn't gardening the names out of their intended role. I guess Sansa should sound southish, but that has been destroyed by the other gardened Sansa Stark. And Arya sounds targaryenish. Also a Joeffrey Lannister was gardened in later. 

I don't know what's going on and why there has to be a Joeffrey Lannister, Arya Flint, Sansa Stark and so on in the canon. When I expected a Joeffrey Baratheon, Arya Whent or Sansa Tully. Which would fit better with the naming rights and intentions of their parents. Who named Mya Stone ? I really don't know what is going on and why only Gendry, the bastard Robert likely does not know about, sounds baretheonish. 

Robert didn't care much about his children, Cersei's whole meaning of life was her children.   So Robert could have had the right to pick names, but Cersei could have pushed for a name and Robert didn't push back. 

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Can I still write about asoiaf religions because I have a question - is there any ties between Garth the Greenhand's children and Essosi deities? Bors the Breaker was said to drink bull's blood and grow horns, there is an Essosi deity Aquan the Red Bull. Harlon and Herndon were ancestors of House Tarly and two brothers woods witch as a lover, in Essos there are Semosh and Selloso as brother deities.

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3 hours ago, LynnS said:

Oh I like this reasoning.  Kevan Lannister tells us that Rhaegar would never have 'looked twice' at Lyanna if Cersei had been at the tournament.  So I don't think Rhaegar chose Lyanna for her beauty or for love.  Doing a double-take when you see someone for the first time indicates a level of surprise and recognition or deja vu.  I think Rhaegar was more than a scholar.  I think it likely that he was a dreamer and went off to Summerhall to compose and consult with the Ghost of High Heart;  the original wood's witch who made the PwiP prophecy.  I think Lyanna figures in those dreams or visions given to him by the GoHH in payment for his songs.

But of course pure friggin speculation without any back-up whatsoever.  lol

Different men see different things in women and Kevin is biased.   But we can take 2 things from this:

Lyanna was truly beautiful.   If Cersei were there, in Kevin's mind, Lyanna would be the second most beautiful woman there.  Otherwise, this comment doesn't make sense, and he'd be asking why Rhaegar chose Lyanna with so many beautiful women around. 

Rhaegar may not have chosen for looks.   Lyanna had a very strong personality and was a very different person from most of the women attending. 

But I don't think we can rule out prophesies and visions.   We know Targaryens can see things, Rhaegar was motivated by prophesy.   We have his conversation at the hotu.  I've always said Starks and Targaryens are the most important bloodlines and represent ice and fire, maybe he knew he needed a child of both. 

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6 hours ago, SirArthur said:

Although this is not working with the flow of the conversation, I want to talk more about naming children, especially naming rights. The only other Sansa we know is another Stark, so it is safe to conclude that Ned named all children. Why didn't Cat name any child ? Robert and Cersei have this turned around, Joeffrey, Mycella and Tommen are not exactly Baratheon names. Why didn't Robert care ? 

I'm not sure sure if GRRM wasn't gardening the names out of their intended role. I guess Sansa should sound southish, but that has been destroyed by the other gardened Sansa Stark. And Arya sounds targaryenish. Also a Joeffrey Lannister was gardened in later. 

I don't know what's going on and why there has to be a Joeffrey Lannister, Arya Flint, Sansa Stark and so on in the canon. When I expected a Joeffrey Baratheon, Arya Whent or Sansa Tully. Which would fit better with the naming rights and intentions of their parents. Who named Mya Stone ? I really don't know what is going on and why only Gendry, the bastard Robert likely does not know about, sounds baretheonish. 

Sansa and Arya are musical terms. A sansa is a musical instrument. It's been described as a finger harp, gourd piano, or thumb piano. Arya of course sounds like aria, which is an expressive melody, often sung with musical accompaniment, but it can be solely instrumental. We might conclude then, that the author chose musical names for these two, because they play a part in the song of ice and fire.

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9 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Sansa and Arya are musical terms. A sansa is a musical instrument. It's been described as a finger harp, gourd piano, or thumb piano. Arya of course sounds like aria, which is an expressive melody, often sung with musical accompaniment, but it can be solely instrumental. We might conclude then, that the author chose musical names for these two, because they play a part in the song of ice and fire.

There is a music instrument called Lujon and also a music piece. :rofl:

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7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Something had happened to spook him badly and I wonder whether that something was the untimely return of winter.

Is there some reason, other than Yandel's curious account, that you think Rhaegar ever did ride out on a long road trip in the middle of a blizzard?   

The whole premise has no canonical foundation at all.

For that matter, we can't even determine based on the canon when in the year of the false spring Harrenhal happened, or how long the false spring lasted.  All that comes from Yandel too.

It seems... improbable... that in less than two turns, winter could "end" long enough that spring could be declared as having returned, Lord Whent could decide to host a huge tourney and send out invitations to the whole continent, and then all the nobles of Westeros could travel to Harrenhal, no matter their starting points, so that the tourney as we know it could be held.  That's a mighty compressed sequence of events.

 

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13 hours ago, Matthew. said:

since everyone in Show World has suddenly decided that she's the smartest character?

Heh.  I would find that a stronger argument if Sansa had actually done something smart on the show... such as realize Popsicles can be killed with obsidian and instruct archers with obsidian arrows to take out Night King from a hundred yards away.

Or she might have realized that hiding in the crypts was a mighty bad idea because corpses would become wights, and there was only a single exit up a long steep staircase.  But she did not.

Or earlier, in the Battle of the Bastards, I'm sure it would have been helpful to Jon, who was nearly killed, to be told the Vale knights were coming so as to alter his battle tactics.  But Sansa, who knew that, somehow forgot to mention it.

Show Sansa is, however, much smarter than Book Sansa.  She may be the only major character who is actually better on the show.

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3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

But I don't think we can rule out prophesies and visions.   We know Targaryens can see things, Rhaegar was motivated by prophesy.   We have his conversation at the hotu.  I've always said Starks and Targaryens are the most important bloodlines and represent ice and fire, maybe he knew he needed a child of both. 

Yes, I agree.  It may be that Jon is not Rhaegar's son.  He may have known that Jon would be Lyanna's son and both fire and ice bloodlines are needed for what is coming.  Not necessarily that there has to be a mixing of fire and ice bloodlines.  Rhaegar may have recognized Lyanna's importance and gives her the crown (of winter roses) for that reason alone.

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3 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Can I still write about asoiaf religions because I have a question - is there any ties between Garth the Greenhand's children and Essosi deities? Bors the Breaker was said to drink bull's blood and grow horns, there is an Essosi deity Aquan the Red Bull. Harlon and Herndon were ancestors of House Tarly and two brothers woods witch as a lover, in Essos there are Semosh and Selloso as brother deities.

Please go for it.It would make a refreshing change.

If I see much more RLJ stuff I would likely hurl my PC out the window,along with the phone.

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

Is there some reason, other than Yandel's curious account, that you think Rhaegar ever did ride out on a long road trip in the middle of a blizzard?   

The whole premise has no canonical foundation at all.

For that matter, we can't even determine based on the canon when in the year of the false spring Harrenhal happened, or how long the false spring lasted.  All that comes from Yandel too.

It seems... improbable... that in less than two turns, winter could "end" long enough that spring could be declared as having returned, Lord Whent could decide to host a huge tourney and send out invitations to the whole continent, and then all the nobles of Westeros could travel to Harrenhal, no matter their starting points, so that the tourney as we know it could be held.  That's a mighty compressed sequence of events.

 

If Yandel has inserted the correct timing for the tourney at Harrenhal as being held during the False Spring, which he records as occurring the last two months of 281, I have wondered if the tourney itself was actually held in December, for two reasons. One, which you have already pointed out, is that people would need to believe Spring had arrived before planning a tourney, and then allow enough time for people to get there.

The second reason is more symbolic. As you know I believe Arya is replaying Lyanna's role from the previous turn on the wheel of time, and the Cat of the Canals chapter says Arya served in the House of Black and White, three nights out of every thirty. Arya, of course, is "no one", which I believe indicates her status as "dead" Lyanna. The three nights are the penance for the three knights, (and three squires for that matter) that the Knight of the Laughing Tree defeated. Just a side note - I don't believe Lyanna was the knight all by herself. Why in the world anyone would think a 15 or 16 year old girl could defeat seasoned knights is beyond logic, IMO. Neither do I believe Howland was the knight all by himself. He was too small and untrained. What I do believe is that the Knight of the Laughing Tree was a composite of two or more people, and an instance of consensual skinchanging. But, I'm getting away from my thoughts regarding the three nights for the three knights...Arya is serving a penance, just as Lyanna paid a price for her participation in defeating the knights. The thirty days then, is the length of time from the end of the tourney until Lyanna was abducted, which would coincide with the timing of her abduction at the beginning of the new year 282.

54 minutes ago, JNR said:

Heh.  I would find that a stronger argument if Sansa had actually done something smart on the show... such as realize Popsicles can be killed with obsidian and instruct archers with obsidian arrows to take out Night King from a hundred yards away.

Or she might have realized that hiding in the crypts was a mighty bad idea because corpses would become wights, and there was only a single exit up a long steep staircase.  But she did not.

Or earlier, in the Battle of the Bastards, I'm sure it would have been helpful to Jon, who was nearly killed, to be told the Vale knights were coming so as to alter his battle tactics.  But Sansa, who knew that, somehow forgot to mention it.

Show Sansa is, however, much smarter than Book Sansa.  She may be the only major character who is actually better on the show.

I fully admit that I really hated book Sansa in the beginning, but you have to consider that she was a 12 year old child when she refused to back Arya up regarding the matter with Joffrey. And while she was a prisoner of Cersei in the Red Keep, she really had no recourse other than learn how to survive. But I think she's learning quite a bit about playing the game of thrones from Littlefinger, and I suspect that she will grow in influence in the Vale, and become a formidable player in her own right. At least, that is what I suspect. That being said, I believe she is replaying the role Ashara had played on the previous turn of the wheel, and Ashara is pretending to be dead and is in disguise - just as Sansa is in disguise as Alayne. We should be able to get a sense of what's in store for Sansa by reviewing what we know about Ashara, but keep in mind that Sansa's end may turn out to be the complete opposite. 

Sansa didn't appear to be an accomplished player while she was held prisoner, but she did learn quite a bit from Cersei. Are we to assume that Ashara was quite the opposite? Ashara was Princess Elia's handmaiden. I don't claim to be an expert at medieval practices, but to me that sounds like a demotion for a highborn lady of a great house, who should have been married or promised instead. I think the reason why Ashara wasn't promised or married was because it was already well known that she was pregnant, and the handmaiden status signified her dishonor. Sansa already shows evidence that she's playing the reverse of Ashara's role, because she managed to leave the castle with her maidenhead intact. It is said Ashara jumped from a tower in grief from the loss of both her child and brother. Lysa planned to push Sansa out the Moon Door, even though she knew who she was, so in effect, having Littlefinger push Lysa out the Moon Door was the deceit needed for Sansa to become Alayne, which means a man close to Ashara was with her when a body was pushed from the Palestone Tower into the sea. It seems likely that it may have been Ned, and the body thrown could have been anybody in a woman's dress.

Now, since Sansa remained at the Eyrie after Lysa went out the Moon Door and assumed the identity of Alayne, doesn't it seem possible that Ashara also remained at Starfall and assumed the identity of Wylla?

If Ashara is Wylla, then it could be that she is not Septa Lemore, opening up the possibility that the septa might be Queen Rhaella - OR in an even bigger twist, Lyanna.

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26 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I fully admit that I really hated book Sansa in the beginning, but you have to consider that she was a 12 year old child when she refused to back Arya up regarding the matter with Joffrey. And while she was a prisoner of Cersei in the Red Keep, she really had no recourse other than learn how to survive. But I think she's learning quite a bit about playing the game of thrones from Littlefinger

It's possible.  She may yet surprise me. 

However, when last seen in a TWOW sample, she was focused on flirting with Harry the Heir (a very AGOT-ish thing for her to do) and still thinking of herself as Alayne.  So if this series is really going to wrap in two books, she's going to have to develop mighty fast to become a serious political player.

28 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

doesn't it seem possible that Ashara also remained at Starfall and assumed the identity of Wylla?

Tricky.  Assuming Edric is right in saying this:

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"Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."

Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?"

"Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born."

 

...that would mean the entire staff of Starfall knew Ashara was suddenly abandoning her identity as Ashara Dayne, and was instead calling herself Wylla and becoming a servant, like them, whose role was wet nurse.

That would be such an amazing situation, I can't imagine it lasting as a secret for very long.  I'd think all of Westeros would be aware of it after more than a decade of gossip.

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6 minutes ago, JNR said:

...that would mean the entire staff of Starfall knew Ashara was suddenly abandoning her identity as Ashara Dayne, and was instead calling herself Wylla and becoming a servant, like them, whose role was wet nurse.

That would be such an amazing situation, I can't imagine it lasting as a secret for very long.  I'd think all of Westeros would be aware of it after more than a decade of gossip.

What other recourse would an unmarried mother have that didn't involve marrying beneath her house? Pregnant Lollys got stuck with Bronn. Ashara may have thought it was preferable to live out the rest of her life as Wylla at her own family's castle than to be forced into an undesirable marriage. Dishonored women get shit for husbands, so she made a deal with her family to remain in disguise for the rest of her life as Wylla. She may even be Edric's natural mother, but in order for Edric to be called a Dayne she had to pretend that she was only his nursemaid. Has Edric ever mentioned his mother was still alive?

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8 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

What other recourse would an unmarried mother have that didn't involve marrying beneath her house? Pregnant Lollys got stuck with Bronn. Ashara may have thought it was preferable to live out the rest of her life as Wylla at her own family's castle than to be forced into an undesirable marriage. Dishonored women get shit for husbands, so she made a deal with her family to remain in disguise for the rest of her life as Wylla. 

Well ... if your ideas play out, Sansa should get pregnant and do the thing Ashara didn't do: either conceive or abort. 

The other thing is, the house of the father then ows house Dayne something. In the category of what Eddard Dayne talks about. We have this situation wih Edric Storm, where a king was forced to acknowledge. 

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1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

The second reason is more symbolic. As you know I believe Arya is replaying Lyanna's role from the previous turn on the wheel of time, and the Cat of the Canals chapter says Arya served in the House of Black and White, three nights out of every thirty. Arya, of course, is "no one", which I believe indicates her status as "dead" Lyanna. The three nights are the penance for the three knights, (and three squires for that matter) that the Knight of the Laughing Tree defeated. Just a side note - I don't believe Lyanna was the knight all by herself. Why in the world anyone would think a 15 or 16 year old girl could defeat seasoned knights is beyond logic, IMO. Neither do I believe Howland was the knight all by himself. He was too small and untrained. What I do believe is that the Knight of the Laughing Tree was a composite of two or more people, and an instance of consensual skinchanging. But, I'm getting away from my thoughts regarding the three nights for the three knights...Arya is serving a penance, just as Lyanna paid a price for her participation in defeating the knights. The thirty days then, is the length of time from the end of the tourney until Lyanna was abducted, which would coincide with the timing of her abduction at the beginning of the new year 282.

TKOTLT defeated 3 squires, not seasoned Knights.   Lyanna would be crushed against Jamie,  Arthur or Barristan.  Lyanna was extremely skilled on horseback, which we are told is what's important.   We also see visions of her fighting Brandon with sticks.   She may have even been trained, we aren't told anything along these lines directly, but Ned hiring Syrio to train Arya is strange in itself.   If hiring a weapons instructor for his daughter was Ned's idea, it is all that much more plausible someone hired one for his sister. 

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1 minute ago, SirArthur said:

Well ... if your ideas play out, Sansa should get pregnant and do the thing Ashara didn't do: either conceive or abort. 

The other thing is, the house of the father then ows house Dayne something. In the category of what Eddard Dayne talks about. We have this situation wih Edric Storm, where a king was forced to acknowledge. 

Not necessarily. If she's replaying Ashara's role and the wheel of time is running in reverse, her story has details that also get reversed. Recall that Joffrey implied that he would force himself upon her even if she were married to Tyrion and he to Margaery, but Sansa avoided losing her maidenhead, because Joffrey was killed at his wedding feast and Sansa escaped.

There may be symbolic evidence in Cat of the Canals chapter that suggests how Ashara was dishonored. It's certainly open to interpretation, but I'll provide my opinion and how I derived my interpretation. 

There's an innocuous passage in this chapter that goes like this:

Quote

The day was nearly done by the time Cat reached the Happy Port, across the alley from where the Ship was anchored. Some of the mummers sat up atop the listing hulk, passing a skin of wine from hand to hand, but when they saw Cat's barrow they came down for some oysters. She asked them how it went with Seven Drunken Oarsmen. Joss the Gloom shook his head. "Quence finally came on Allaquo abed with Sloey. They went at one another with mummer swords, and both of them have left us. We'll only be five drunken oarsmen tonight, it would seem."

Why do I think this passage is about Ashara? IMO "Sloey" is a symbolic reference to Ashara. Sloe berries are purple and Ashara had purple eyes. Also in that chapter "ships", specifically their names, are symbolic of specific people, and there is one ship named the Sloe-Eyed Maid, which I believe is another reference to Ashara. 

I have FreyFamilyReunion to thank for helping identify who Quence and Allaquo are based on what their names might mean.

Quence sounds a bit like the fruit, “quince”, which is a pear-shaped fruit that can leave a bitter taste in one’s mouth. Not to mention that when something goes wrong, people sometimes describe it as going “all pear-shaped”. It has been speculated that the quince was the fruit of the forbidden Tree of Knowledge in the Garden of Eden. There is also a Turkish expression, “to eat the quince”, which apparently refers to an unpleasant situation to avoid. Lastly, the Bael fruit is sometimes called the Bengal Quince. This last tidbit may be a tiny confirmation that Jon is Ashara's son, an unexpected bitter Bael "fruit" of a situation that went all pear-shaped.

FFR also shared his best thoughts about Allaquo. He said the closest word that was similar was Alaqua, which is a Native American word for the Sweet Gum Tree. This tree has pointed five-star-shaped leaves and round spikey balls as fruit. It is also known as redgum - which brings to mind the red sourleaf chewed in the story. Sourleaf is a foul tasting plant, chewed similar to tobacco. It causes a pink froth on the lips, staining the mouth and teeth red, and causes a noticeable red smile. The "red smile" brings to mind the Smiling Knight who I posit was actually Robert Baratheon

Jaime once described the Smiling Knight as “the Mountain of my boyhood. Half as big, twice as mad.” Catelyn Stark considered Masha Heddle’s smile to be a “bloody horror”. Masha Heddle is the innkeeper of the Crossroads Inn in the Riverlands, a place that seems to be involved with more than one kidnapping, so I have a growing suspicion that "sourleaf" is meant to direct our attention from Allaquo to this train of thought: redgum-sourleaf-bloody-smile-Smiling Knight-bloody horror. I might also point out that when Robert died, Ned noted that Robert had a bloody smile:

Quote

“Stinks,” Robert said. “The stink of death, don’t think I can’t smell it. Bastard did me good, eh? But I . . . I paid him back in kind, Ned. ” The king’s smile was as terrible as his wound, his teeth red. “Drove a knife right through his eye. Ask them if I didn’t. Ask them. ”

“Truly,” Lord Renly murmured. “We brought the carcass back with us, at my brother’s command. ”

“For the feast,” Robert whispered. “Now leave us. The lot of you. I need to speak with Ned. ”

This bloody smile definition of "Allaquo" suggests that he might be a parallel to Robert Baratheon, and that Ashara "turned to Stark", because Robert tried to take her maidenhead. This would make "Quence" symbolically 'Ned' in the passage, because he came upon Robert trying to force himself upon Ashara. Ned stopped Robert and spoke with Ashara after he left. One thing led to another and it turned into a situation where they conceived Jon. Jon became the Bael fruit of an encounter that went all pear-shaped, and Ned was left with a bitter taste in his mouth.

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1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

What other recourse would an unmarried mother have that didn't involve marrying beneath her house?

Moon tea seems pretty obvious.  Sure seems to have been Lysa Tully's, Arianne Martell's, and Asha Greyjoy's solution.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Ashara may have thought it was preferable to live out the rest of her life as Wylla at her own family's castle than to be forced into an undesirable marriage.

This still doesn't explain how it was possible for Ashara to change her name, become a servant, and rent her boobs to strange babies... and yet the gossip of this never got out, and no one ever knew. 

16 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

TKOTLT defeated 3 squires, not seasoned Knights.

Feather's right, actually:

Quote

Whoever he was, the old gods gave strength to his arm. The porcupine knight fell first, then the pitchfork knight, and lastly the knight of the two towers.

The squires never rode against the mystery knight.

19 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Lyanna was extremely skilled on horseback, which we are told is what's important.

When Jaime said that, he was surely comparing two adult knights in his head, one of whom was better on horseback than the other.   The concept that one of them was secretly a fourteen year old wearing bits and pieces of strange armor, who had never jousted against other people or competed in a tourney, wasn't part of it.

20 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

We also see visions of her fighting Brandon with sticks. 

It was Benjen, her younger brother, who was smaller and weaker than she was.

 

 

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

Moon tea seems pretty obvious.  Sure seems to have been Lysa Tully's, Arianne Martell's, and Asha Greyjoy's solution.

I suspect Ashara kept the baby, because she fell in love with Ned. Maybe she was a rebel and wanted to buck traditional expectations?

The fisherman's daughter tale indicates that the woman Lord Borel saw had a belly bump, because he told Davos that Ned left a bastard in her belly. I believe the daughter was Ashara, and that she had escaped Kings Landing around the time King Aerys was busy killing Brandon and Rickard. Naturally she feared for her unborn Stark bastard, so she slipped away on a ship much like Sansa did. She had somebody's help, and she was able to sail to the Fingers, where she finds Ned on his way to Winterfell to call his banners.

I believe Ned fully intended to marry Ashara and that she gave birth to Jon at Winterfell. Maybe the reason why he didn't marry her before leaving for the Rebellion was because their houses were on opposite sides? And then when he was forced politically into marrying Catelyn in order to secure an alliance with House Tully, he came up with the plan to raise Jon and send Ashara home. This is mirrored when Jon forces Gilly to give up her son.

After the war Ned has two reasons to go to Starfall: 1) to return Arthur's sword, and 2) to see Ashara. I'm thinking Ashara is the one that comes up with the suicide plan, because she doesn't want to be forced into a marriage beneath her house, and Ned helps her go through with the farce.

1 hour ago, JNR said:

This still doesn't explain how it was possible for Ashara to change her name, become a servant, and rent her boobs to strange babies... and yet the gossip of this never got out, and no one ever knew. 

If Edric was an infant around the time Ashara first got home, she would still be lactating, because of Jon. Edric is the mirror to Mance's son Aemon that Gilly was forced to accept as her own and raise at Horn Hill. 

The family was willing to keep up the farce that Ashara was now Wylla, because her dishonor was their dishonor too. 

There's another obvious detail that I might point out - Edric Dayne might be the real Aegon, and Young Griff is just a decoy setup by Queen Rhaella. If Edric is Aegon he would be mirroring Aegon V when he travelled the realm in disguise as Egg. Egg was Duncan's squire, just as Edric was Beric's squire. And like I've mentioned a few pages back, I believe Lem Lemoncloak is actually one of the Kingsguard, but I cannot decide if he's Gerold Hightower or Arthur Dayne. His physical description is most like Hightower, but living with the commoners is something more like what Arthur would do. And having a Kingsguard with the real Aegon would be the proof. Not only that, it would complete the parallel with Mance's son Aemon. Gilly is raising the King Beyond the Wall's prince, so the boy that Ashara nursed should be a prince also.

If Edric is indeed Aegon, then the Daynes would've had one more reason to keep Ashara hidden as Wylla. Ashara may have been the one to bring Aegon out of Kings Landing, and all connections to Ashara must be severed.

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3 hours ago, JNR said:

Is there some reason, other than Yandel's curious account, that you think Rhaegar ever did ride out on a long road trip in the middle of a blizzard?   

The whole premise has no canonical foundation at all.

For that matter, we can't even determine based on the canon when in the year of the false spring Harrenhal happened, or how long the false spring lasted.  All that comes from Yandel too.

It seems... improbable... that in less than two turns, winter could "end" long enough that spring could be declared as having returned, Lord Whent could decide to host a huge tourney and send out invitations to the whole continent, and then all the nobles of Westeros could travel to Harrenhal, no matter their starting points, so that the tourney as we know it could be held.  That's a mighty compressed sequence of events.

 

While GRRM has teasing told us that Yandel isn't to be relied on, there are ways and ways of telling a story. The False Spring and the Winter that followed it are things that are remembered. As I said earlier the manipulation is most likely to occur in the small events not the great ones.

In this case I'm suggesting that the Spring, the Tournament and the return of Winter all occurred as people remember.

Rhaegar, however is a different matter. He disappeared at the beginning of the Winter. What we don't know is why. We have Yandel's story of his riding out and at some point snatching Lyanna Stark and having his wicked way with her. That's the story Trouserless Bob wanted to hear and so blackguard Rhaegar's name forever.

On the other hand we can argue that the proximity of his beloved wife Elia being brought to bed of the heir that he was expecting makes such an assignation unlikely. Similarly, an infatuation with a young girl he had never met or spoken to also seems unconvincing.

So why did he disappear?

Was it connected with the plotting Yandel speaks of? Was the infamous circlet of roses a political rather than a romantic gesture? And was something going horribly wrong?

Or was there a different reason. Was it connected with the untimely coming of a Winter that wasn't yet due - at a time when his own duck [Aegon/PtwP] wasn't yet set up?

Whatever the outcomes, I'm suggesting that rather than Lyanna being what all this was about, as Bob wanted to believe, Lyanna may simply have been caught up in something quite different

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So my mother who read the books with me, thinks Jon is either the son of Rickard/ or Tywin/Lyanna... well time to invite her to heresy thread! I mentioned Eddard/Lyanna to her but she wasn't moved thinks Bael story could be hint at RLJ (Rickard it is) 

@Black Crow when I write the essay do I sent it to you or post it in the general thread? 

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