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Black Crow

Heresy 221 and the Children of Winterfell

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25 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

to her but she wasn't moved thinks Bael story could be hint at RLJ

The name RLJ fits the theory very well, as the name is only a short version, if you are already convinced of Rhaegar. Other people starting with R are Robert, Rickard or Randyll. And thus RLJ is a meaningless term, if you don't know the theory. 

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47 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

So my mother who read the books with me, thinks Jon is either the son of Rickard/ or Tywin/Lyanna... well time to invite her to heresy thread! I mentioned Eddard/Lyanna to her but she wasn't moved thinks Bael story could be hint at RLJ (Rickard it is) 

@Black Crow when I write the essay do I sent it to you or post it in the general thread? 

Recall that the story of Bael is one about "who" fathered the bastard of Winterfell. As I mentioned upthread, Bael is the "quince" or the bitter fruit of a situation that went "all pear-shaped". Jon is "Bael's son, but people disagree on who "Bael" was. Many think Rhaegar was Bael simply because of their shared interest in playing and singing songs, but we already have a song that encompasses the whole story: the Song of Ice and Fire, and I think the names Sansa and Arya (aria) are meant to remind us that the song was written to include Ned.

In my opinion, Lyanna as Jon's mother is a red herring. It feeds into the false kidnapping narrative, which according to the canon, could not have happened. Rhaegar wasn't anywhere near the Riverlands when Lyanna went missing. He was attending the birth of his son on Dragonstone, and then when Elia was well enough to travel, they sailed to Dorne, and then returned from the south to Kings Landing sometime after the Battle of the Bells.

I find it interesting that many in Heresy doubt that Rhaegar is Jon's father, and yet they hold onto the idea that Lyanna is somehow still his mother! I think Ned was telling the truth when he said Jon was of his blood and that Wylla was his mother. Wylla is just the identity Ashara assumed when she got home just as Sansa assumed the role of Alayne when her "father" brought her "home".

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6 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Recall that the story of Bael is one about "who" fathered the bastard of Winterfell. As I mentioned upthread, Bael is the "quince" or the bitter fruit of a situation that went "all pear-shaped". Jon is "Bael's son, but people disagree on who "Bael" was. Many think Rhaegar was Bael simply because of their shared interest in playing and singing songs, but we already have a song that encompasses the whole story: the Song of Ice and Fire, and I think the names Sansa and Arya (aria) are meant to remind us that the song was written to include Ned.

In my opinion, Lyanna as Jon's mother is a red herring. It feeds into the false kidnapping narrative, which according to the canon, could not have happened. Rhaegar wasn't anywhere near the Riverlands when Lyanna went missing. He was attending the birth of his son on Dragonstone, and then when Elia was well enough to travel, they sailed to Dorne, and then returned from the south to Kings Landing sometime after the Battle of the Bells.

I find it interesting that many in Heresy doubt that Rhaegar is Jon's father, and yet they hold onto the idea that Lyanna is somehow still his mother! I think Ned was telling the truth when he said Jon was of his blood and that Wylla was his mother. Wylla is just the identity Ashara assumed when she got home just as Sansa assumed the role of Alayne when her "father" brought her "home".

Well I am more into Eddard/Fisherman's Daughter situation but not going to confuse her at this moment, during her first read she was into Rhaegar/Lyanna but changed to more shocking idea of incest, woman didn't even flinched when she said Rickard is the father, I nearly had a heart attack though.

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1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

The False Spring and the Winter that followed it are things that are remembered.

Sure, there's no doubt they happened in the year before the Rebellion began.  We just don't know much more than that.

1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

Rhaegar, however is a different matter. He disappeared at the beginning of the Winter. What we don't know is why.

How do you know, using the canon, that he disappeared then?  That idea only comes from Yandel.

Now, we agree it's clear there was a period of months when Aerys couldn't find Rhaegar.  That period was from shortly after the start of the war until when Rhaegar returned to King's Landing.  We know that because:

Quote

When Merryweather failed so dismally to contain Robert's Rebellion and Prince Rhaegar could not be found, Aerys had turned to the next best thing, and raised Connington to the Handship.

But this period of missing time for Rhaegar was not right after Harrenhal, when the winter returned, as Yandel says.

It was quite a long time after Harrenhal.  This is because there was an extended gap between Harrenhal and the war, as we know from Ned's age at Harrenhal (18) vs. his apparent age when Jon was born (21 or close to it, close in time to the Sack).

So I suggest a common sense chronology.  First Harrenhal... then winter returns, showing the spring was false.

Then many months go by (perhaps as much as a year).   Winter is now well over, and there's nothing false about this spring.

Spring finally having come, Brandon's wedding to Catelyn is fixed in time... spring being a much more convenient time for people to travel than winter. 

So Brandon is on his way to Riverrun, per the canon.  Now Lyanna disappears and Brandon learns of that.  A chain of events follows, the war begins, and now it turns out Aerys cannot find Rhaegar, per the quote above about Merryweather. 

If so, there was never a time when Rhaegar arbitrarily went on a long road trip during a winter so intense, for so long, that it froze the Blackwater.

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I think the problem is in linking Rhaegar's riding out into the storm with the abduction of Lyanna and so concluding that he rode out in order to abduct/elope, when two entirely different events could be conflated and Lyanna was ambushed by chance.

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1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

 I find it interesting that many in Heresy doubt that Rhaegar is Jon's father, and yet they hold onto the idea that Lyanna is somehow still his mother! I think Ned was telling the truth when he said Jon was of his blood and that Wylla was his mother. Wylla is just the identity Ashara assumed when she got home just as Sansa assumed the role of Alayne when her "father" brought her "home".

 If Jon is part Stark, either Ned or Lyanna is one of his parents.   Ned doesn't really fit and has a lot fewer possibilities for interesting theories.

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2 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

So my mother who read the books with me, thinks Jon is either the son of Rickard/ or Tywin/Lyanna... well time to invite her to heresy thread! I mentioned Eddard/Lyanna to her but she wasn't moved thinks Bael story could be hint at RLJ (Rickard it is) 

@Black Crow when I write the essay do I sent it to you or post it in the general thread? 

You can try to PM it to me and if that doesn't work let me know and I'll ping you my email address

As for your mother, did she feel the identity of Jon's parents was important, or was it a question of idle curiosity. Although I'm not as cheesed off with the subject as Alien Area, I still think that its nowhere near as important as the disciples seem to think it is.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

So my mother who read the books with me, thinks Jon is either the son of Rickard/ or Tywin/Lyanna... well time to invite her to heresy thread! I mentioned Eddard/Lyanna to her but she wasn't moved thinks Bael story could be hint at RLJ (Rickard it is) 

@Black Crow when I write the essay do I sent it to you or post it in the general thread? 

Duplicate post

Edited by Black Crow

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

You can try to PM it to me and if that doesn't work let me know and I'll ping you my email address

As for your mother, did she feel the identity of Jon's parents was important, or was it a question of idle curiosity. Although I'm not as cheesed off with the subject as Alien Area, I still think that its nowhere near as important as the disciples seem to think it is.

No she doesn't care much, unlike me though she is familiar with the show too and didn't understand why Jon is a Targaryen, she also think Tywin has to be part of Lyanna' abduction since the two families are enemies but she is a Stannis fan lol. 

I will send you a PM tomorrow :)

Edited by Jova Snow

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19 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

No she doesn't care much, unlike me though she is familiar with the show too and didn't understand why Jon is a Targaryen, she also think Tywin has to be part of Lyanna' abduction since the two families are enemies but she is a Stannis fan lol. 

I will send you a PM tomorrow :)

I like the way your mother thinks! 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Black Crow said:

I think the problem is in linking Rhaegar's riding out into the storm with the abduction of Lyanna and so concluding that he rode out in order to abduct/elope, when two entirely different events could be conflated and Lyanna was ambushed by chance. 

That would be a logical problem indeed, since it seems quite a few months passed between Harrenhal and Lyanna's vanishing act.  (I notice the wiki in fact makes the error you describe.)

The difference is that we know for sure, from the canon, that Lyanna did disappear shortly before the war began.  So if we want to include that concept in a theory, we're on very sure footing.

But we never get any faint reference in the canon to Rhaegar beginning a long road trip in a blizzard... either right after Harrenhal, or at any other time.  This curious notion only exists in the World book.

Edited by JNR

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Placing the Rebellion nearly a year after the tourney simply doesn’t work, because it throws off Robb’s age at the beginning of A Game of Thrones in 298, making him a year younger.

Robb was born in 283. If Jon Arryn didn’t call his banners until late 282, then Robb’s conception would get pushed to mid-283 and his birthday into early 284, making Robb 13 going on 14 instead of 14 going on 15.

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I considered Rickard or Brandon as Jon's father.   The timing doesn't seem to work,  it probably makes Jon too old, we'd have to assume they got Jon's mother pregnant before Lyanna was captured.  And we have the SSM about Brandon's bastards which seems to rule out Jon.

If J=R+L, Ned has a very good reason to keep Jon's parentage a secret.   If Ned is the father,  it might make sense to keep the mother a secret.   But most other possibilities don't have a good reason for secrecy. 

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3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Robb was born in 283. If Jon Arryn didn’t call his banners until late 282, then Robb’s conception would get pushed to mid-283 and his birthday into early 284, making Robb 13 going on 14 instead of 14 going on 15.

The long gap between Harrenhal and the war doesn't have to be a full year.  

For instance, let's assume Yandel is right that Harrenhal happened around December 281.

You could now have seven or eight months go by before the war begins -- this is the long gap, in which the winter eventually dissipates and true spring returns.

This places Brandon's wedding and the Rebellion beginning circa June 282, springtime.

Robb and Jon are then conceived roughly September/October 282, some months after the war has begun.  Ned and Catelyn have married.

The war then ends after about a year, say June 283.   A year and a half has passed since Harrenhal.  Robb and Jon would both be born around then, which matches the various canonical accounts and explains their clear similarity of age.

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@Brad Stark I think secrecy works for incest relationship too, I think it's Catelyn who says both old and new Gods hated incest, bringing home a bastard child of a commoner is one thing, bringing home a child of incest is another. Rhaegar/Lyanna fails to explain why Ned never thinks of Rhaegar and why Jon has no resemblance to his birth parents, compared to Young Griff who is an attractive young man with a viper's temper, the answer should be more than plot convenience. 

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8 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

No she doesn't care much, unlike me though she is familiar with the show too and didn't understand why Jon is a Targaryen, she also think Tywin has to be part of Lyanna' abduction since the two families are enemies but she is a Stannis fan lol. 

I will send you a PM tomorrow :)

This was why I asked, because in truth the books, other than setting up Jon's resentment of his bastardy, don't really explore his parentage as an issue and it certainly isn't the "central mystery" proclaimed by some. I''m reminded that non-reading viewers had to be told through newspaper articles and the like that there was a widely believed theory, etc. because even before it went downhill the Mummers version didn't feature it, far less centre his character around it. Hence the strong contention by many on thee here pages that it aint anywhere as important as the disciples want us to believe

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2 hours ago, JNR said:

The long gap between Harrenhal and the war doesn't have to be a full year.  

For instance, let's assume Yandel is right that Harrenhal happened around December 281.

You could now have seven or eight months go by before the war begins -- this is the long gap, in which the winter eventually dissipates and true spring returns.

This places Brandon's wedding and the Rebellion beginning circa June 282, springtime.

Robb and Jon are then conceived roughly September/October 282, some months after the war has begun.  Ned and Catelyn have married.

The war then ends after about a year, say June 283.   A year and a half has passed since Harrenhal.  Robb and Jon would both be born around then, which matches the various canonical accounts and explains their clear similarity of age.

Indeed, which is basically what I'm suggesting. 

Rhaegar, is presented with the son he desires - the Prince that was Promised and all is going to plan, when suddenly Winter strikes back and he rides out in a panic because that wasn't supposed to happen. What he's trying to do about it the Gods only know, but at some point Lyanna falls into his hands and the rest is [Yandel's] history.

Perhaps ultimately the twist in all of this may be that Trouserless Bob was right all along and that far from being a romantic elopement, Lyanna was indeed abducted and raped.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Perhaps ultimately the twist in all of this may be that Trouserless Bob was right all along and that far from being a romantic elopement, Lyanna was indeed abducted and raped. 

Yes, I think this is possible.  Dany saves the lamb women who are being raped by the Dothraki and Jorah tells her:

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Daenerys VII

"I will not have her harmed," Dany said. "I claim her. Do as I command you, or Khal Drogo will know the reason why."

"Go with them," she commanded Ser Jorah.

"As you command." The knight gave her a curious look. "You are your brother's sister, in truth."
"Viserys?" She did not understand.
"No," he answered. "Rhaegar." He galloped off.

 

It's not in Rhaegar's playbook according to Jorah.  But it is in the Lannister playbook.  If it was Tywin's ambition to put Cersei on the throne and that failed when Rhaegar married Elia; then it's necessary to get rid of Rhaegar and his offspring and replace him with someone more biddable like Trouserless Bob.  Kevan Lannister voices that ambition in the epilogue of DwD.  So Lyanna had to go as well.  As long as we're speculating; if Rhaegar knew of Lyanna's importance to the prophecy in producing the child of ice; he may have gotten wind of some plan to abduct and kill her and rode off to intervene.  It makes some sense that he would send her off into hiding with Ser Arthur.
Edited by LynnS

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7 hours ago, JNR said:

The long gap between Harrenhal and the war doesn't have to be a full year.  

For instance, let's assume Yandel is right that Harrenhal happened around December 281.

You could now have seven or eight months go by before the war begins -- this is the long gap, in which the winter eventually dissipates and true spring returns.

This places Brandon's wedding and the Rebellion beginning circa June 282, springtime.

Robb and Jon are then conceived roughly September/October 282, some months after the war has begun.  Ned and Catelyn have married.

The war then ends after about a year, say June 283.   A year and a half has passed since Harrenhal.  Robb and Jon would both be born around then, which matches the various canonical accounts and explains their clear similarity of age.

Robb was conceived shortly prior to the Battle of the Bells. Your timeline is placing that battle only three or four months after Jon Arryn raised his banners. You’re not allowing enough time for all of the events that occurred prior, and too long of a gap afterward. The Battle at the Trident was not long after the Battle of the Bells.

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On 5/12/2019 at 1:58 PM, Black Crow said:

However just by way of throwing a random thought out there with regard to point 5 onwards, there may be a bit of misinformation by Yandel here. The traditional version per Trouserless Bob/Yandel and the R+L=J disciples is that Lyanna turns up in the crowd at Harrenhal, then performs so spectacularly as a mystery knight that Rhaegar falls madly in love, obtains a chaplet of blue roses by way of next day delivery through Amazon, and then immediately elopes with her.

However, as you note the weather turned spectacularly bad after Harrenhal - which doesn't really jibe with a romantic assignation

So why did Rhaegar ride out? 

Were the blue roses, as I've suggested before, a political rather than a romantic gesture - and why did Aerys want Trouserless Bob's head?

Or did Rhaegar ride out after the weather went bad, precisely because Winter had returned?

Sorry, it's been awhile but I have a point to make. From the Bael story, we are told that the Blue Roses are considered priceless to the Starks. They are only grown in Winterfell and to my knowledge, have never been seen elsewhere (aside from visions). This suggests two ideas to me:

1. The Blue roses were fakes, meant to anger the Starks. If the flowers can only be created in Winterfell, these would have to be some other rose that has been colored or something like that. It would be a mockery of something that the Starks are proud of. 

2. The roses show an alliance between Rhaeghar and the Starks (and their allies). If the Starks are the only ones that could have these roses, then Rhaeghar getting them is problematic. We get the young generations reactions (mostly anger and rage) but we do not get the older generations reactions and I think that is telling. Something like this wouldn't sneak past Tywin for example. Basically, the roses are a signal of who Rhaeghars allies are and used as a non-verbal communication. 

Either way, this was a planned act. It is implied that Rhaeghar cheated to win the Tourney, and him giving the roses to Lyanna was not a spur of the moment decision. 

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