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Heresy 221 and the Children of Winterfell

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On 5/15/2019 at 7:02 PM, JNR said:

Rhaegar would have had no reason, at any time in his life, to imagine that his first son Aegon would not be king.  Because Rhaegar died before his son by Elia did.

OK, fine. New rationalization: George Foreman named all his sons George, and there's like five of them. No reason Rhaegar couldn't.

I'm sure this has been done to death, but: R+A=D, R+L=J, R+E=A? Three heads, three mothers, one very randy man of prophecy?

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8 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

@Brad Stark I think secrecy works for incest relationship too, I think it's Catelyn who says both old and new Gods hated incest, bringing home a bastard child of a commoner is one thing, bringing home a child of incest is another. Rhaegar/Lyanna fails to explain why Ned never thinks of Rhaegar and why Jon has no resemblance to his birth parents, compared to Young Griff who is an attractive young man with a viper's temper, the answer should be more than plot convenience. 

Incest would be a reason for secrecy, but who are the potential parents?  Lyanna seems to be the only possible female.   We haven't seen anything to suggest Ned and Lyanna were together,  although I suppose that's possible, but I have a hard time putting them in the same place when Jon was conceived.  Ned's brother and father were likely dead or captured before Jon was conceived, again, putting them in the same place is again really hard. 

If Jon is the son of Lyanna and a non Stark, he doesn't look much like his father,  Rhaegar or anyone else.   Jon seems to have even more of the Stark look than Ned, which points to Lyanna being his mother.  Jon is muscular but lighter and thinner than Robert, possibly Rhaegar's build. 

I'd need to reread the first book to see if Ned thinks about Rheagar, but the two didn't know each other. 

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9 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

I'd need to reread the first book to see if Ned thinks about Rheagar, but the two didn't know each other. 

Both were at least at the tourney at Harrenhal, both knew Ashara. 

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When Robert wanted to compete in the Hand’s tourney, Ned persuaded him not to by telling him that all his foes would let him win. So I think that is why Rhaegar won the day. No one wanted to defeat him and risk displeasing or injuring him, so whoever secured the blue roses  knew they would be Rhaegar’s to award. But, if this was an instance of setting up Rhaegar, how would they know he wouldn’t give them to his pregnant wife? Perhaps Rhaegar understood the history of the blue roses and gave them to Lyanna simply because she was a daughter of Winterfell?

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8 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Rhaegar, is presented with the son he desires - the Prince that was Promised and all is going to plan, when suddenly Winter strikes back and he rides out in a panic because that wasn't supposed to happen.

It's possible, but I find it doubtful because I don't think Aegon was born anywhere near Harrenhal (see also my earlier discussion of when GRRM said he was born).

So Rhaegar may have ridden out after the son he desired was born, but I don't think it was anywhere near that point in time (blizzard conditions).  I think it was quite a bit later, when Aegon was actually born.

3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The Battle at the Trident was not long after the Battle of the Bells.

Show me the canonical support for this idea, if you can. 

It's just not there... and is only an assumption fans have made, much like the idea that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna right after Harrenhal, to suit their theories.

The truth is that many things happened after the Battle of the Bells, and collectively they took time (including Robert recovering from his wounds).  Such as:

Quote

The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to Stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father. But no raven returned from Casterly Rock, and that made the king even more afraid. He saw traitors everywhere, and Varys was always there to point out any he might have missed. So His Grace commanded his alchemists to place caches of wildfire all over King's Landing. Beneath Baelor's Sept and the hovels of Flea Bottom, under stables and storehouses, at all seven gates, even in the cellars of the Red Keep itself.

It seems evident that all that did not happen lickety-split after the Battle of the Bells.  The entire wildfire plot, for instance, had to happen in that timeframe, as Robert recovered.

Now here's my question for you.  If you believe Robb and Jon are very close in age, and you also believe this:

3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Robb was conceived shortly prior to the Battle of the Bells.

How can you possibly think Jon was conceived at Harrenhal?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Direwolf Blitzer said:

OK, fine. New rationalization: George Foreman named all his sons George, and there's like five of them. No reason Rhaegar couldn't.

In support of this theory, I point out that in naming his sons George, Rhaegar would also have been honoring the creator of his fictional world... who is also named George.

Edited by JNR

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George Takai is a time traveller, named after George Targaryen, who travelled back in time, to save extinct whales direwolves and bring them back to Winterfell, because a giant space undead direwolf wanted to destroy the planet Westeros. 

There. I have solved the plot. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, JNR said:

It's possible, but I find it doubtful because I don't think Aegon was born anywhere near Harrenhal (see also my earlier discussion of when GRRM said he was born).

So Rhaegar may have ridden out after the son he desired was born, but I don't think it was anywhere near that point in time (blizzard conditions).  I think it was quite a bit later, when Aegon was actually born.

Show me the canonical support for this idea, if you can. 

It's just not there... and is only an assumption fans have made, much like the idea that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna right after Harrenhal, to suit their theories.

The truth is that many things happened after the Battle of the Bells, and collectively they took time (including Robert recovering from his wounds).  Such as:

It seems evident that all that did not happen lickety-split after the Battle of the Bells.  The entire wildfire plot, for instance, had to happen in that timeframe, as Robert recovered.

Now here's my question for you.  If you believe Robb and Jon are very close in age, and you also believe this:

How can you possibly think Jon was conceived at Harrenhal?

The Battle of the Bells was a turning point in the Rebellion, and imo, likely midway or 3/4 through the year that the war was said to take. I also believe the two weeks Catelyn said she had with Ned was the time it took Hoster to call his banners, placing Robb’s conception shortly before they left to rescue Robert. A number of things occurred before this.

GRRM said the Rebellion lasted about one year, began as soon as Jon Arryn raised his banners, and ended at the Sack. Assuming that calling his bannermen lasted a minimum of two weeks, he next moves on Gulltown. I have no idea how long it took to march from the Eyrie to Gulltown or how long the battle took, but let’s add two weeks to round off that first month. After Gulltown, Robert rides for Storms End to raise his banners. Let’s give him a week or two to get home - he likely needed to slip past Kings Landing undetected - and take at least two weeks to raise his banners. That eats up month number two. The next conflict involves marching towards Summerhal where he fights a series of battles in quick sequence, then brings prisoners back to Storms End before heading back out again. Now we’re well into the third month and Robert needs to march to Ashford. Do you still think the Battle of the Bells is 4 months after Jon Arryn raised his banners?

i think Jon is 6-7 months older than Robb. Obviously older in his development, but small enough in his physical build to look smaller in size than Robb, who was said to be more robust.

Robert was injured at Stoney Sept, but it’s stated that he stayed behind after the Trident to recover. Who’s to say it wasn’t the same injury that was aggravated when he stoved in Rhaegar’s chest?

Edited by Feather Crystal

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4 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Incest would be a reason for secrecy, but who are the potential parents?  Lyanna seems to be the only possible female.   We haven't seen anything to suggest Ned and Lyanna were together,  although I suppose that's possible, but I have a hard time putting them in the same place when Jon was conceived.  Ned's brother and father were likely dead or captured before Jon was conceived, again, putting them in the same place is again really hard. 

If Jon is the son of Lyanna and a non Stark, he doesn't look much like his father,  Rhaegar or anyone else.   Jon seems to have even more of the Stark look than Ned, which points to Lyanna being his mother.  Jon is muscular but lighter and thinner than Robert, possibly Rhaegar's build. 

I'd need to reread the first book to see if Ned thinks about Rheagar, but the two didn't know each other. 

Jon is a Ned clone though, no one says he looks like a Stark, they say he looks like Ned Stark. I think biggest problem with parentage theories is the fact we don't have any about Jon's birthday, we know he turns fifteen before Robb and he should be eight/nine months older than Daenerys. Jon is actually short and lithe, Robb is the taller and muscular sibling due to his Tully side. 

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Its worth reminding ourselves that GRRM has in the past commented adversely on forensic horology, ie; our angels are dancing on pinheads and while the ducks need to be set up in the right order the spacing between them isn't a deal-breaker.

Yandel, sez GRRM, aint reliable and has twisted certain things in order to suit a certain ruling house which is presumably that of Baratheon - or Lannister - but that's going to centre around actions and attributed motivations rather than the calendar. So rather than getting our collective knickers in a twist about when things happened I think we can let the calendar slide while we look at whay really happened and why.

In this case, what was really going on at Harrenhall? Its suggested that Rhaegar was using it at cover for some kind of conspiracy, presumably aimed and getting Aerys shuffled off into an honourable retirement for the sake of the dynasty while at the same time heading off a parallel conspiracy aimed at putting Trouserless Bob on the throne with a Northern Alliance. The blue roses then become a political message rather than astonishing romantic gesture.

Afterwards Rhaegar leaves King's Landing in a panic and disappears. Why? Is it the unexpected return of Winter and this Ice and Fire stuff he's obsessed with, or is it still political?

That gives us a lot of options, including Twyin Lannister stirring the pot and certainly doesn't rule out Lyanna being abducted and raped in truth. Its the old story that just because you're paranoid it doesn't mean that they're not out to get you. Trouserless Bob may have been right all along and its this sort of examination which is more likely to produce results than counting months on fingers

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Honestly the more I think about Rebellion timeline the more confusing it becomes so we know Tywin and Cersei along with other Lannisters(?) weren't at the Harrenhall, I think it is safe to assume Tully's weren't there too(?) since Catelyn only hears name of Ashara in Winterfell and doesn't know her husband danced with the lady in a grand tourney. Oberyn was at Harrenhall yet we never learn his reaction to Rhaegar crowning Lyanna, though he says noble Rhaegar left Elia for another woman. 

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13 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

 Rhaegar/Lyanna fails to explain why Ned never thinks of Rhaegar and why Jon has no resemblance to his birth parents

Ned thinks or talks about Rhaegar in at least eight out of his fifteen chapters, so the claim that Ned never thinks of Rhaegar is simply not true. In AGOT: Sansa I, Sansa's POV explicitly states that Arya looks like Jon, then seven chapters later in AGOT: Arya II, Ned explicitly tells Arya that she looks like Lyanna. So it is certainly indicated that Jon could look like Lyanna in some ways. That Jon doesn't have gold or silver hair is no surprise, as this is relatively common in the first children of Targaryens and non-Targaryens with darker features. Jon's almost black grey eyes could even be seen as possibly caused in part by his paternal heritage, as seen in people like Orys and Jocelyn Baratheon, whose eyes are black rather than purple or blue.

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I don't know how much time was between Bells and Trident, but from the military positions and movements, I assume that Rhaegar was under time pressure. Under normal circumstances, the Targaryens should play on time and wait for more troops. It is clear from the text that Rhaegar rushed the formation of his army, yet he is the attacker, not the defender. 

For a serious battle, both sides need a reason to fight and not retreat. I suggest that Rhaegar was marching against two different armies: the Tully-Stark-Arryn alliance and a Lannister alliance. So he had to defeat one army fast, he positioned against the larger host and the Lannister army got into his flank, with possibility to march on KL an Rhaegar's host.

Robert's forced may have had similar problems. They couldn't allow Rhaegar to cross the Trident and din't know about the Lannister position. 

Overall, from the speed the armies were assembled and Rhaegar's attack instead of fighting defensive,  I conclude that there was another issue (like Lannister) putting pressure on the Targaryens. So much pressure that they had no time to regroup on a strategic level. I don't think there was more than 6 month between Bells and Trident. Unless the Targaryens lost another army, we know nothing about.

The timetable may suggest the siege of Storm's End lasted for the better part of a year. This is true, but as someone posted earlier, Robert has to do his world journey, the rebels have to march on King's Landing and then on Storm's End. If the better part of a year ... is ten month, then there may be 5 month between Bells and Trident. 

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5 hours ago, Direwolf Blitzer said:

OK, fine. New rationalization: George Foreman named all his sons George, and there's like five of them. No reason Rhaegar couldn't.

I'm sure this has been done to death, but: R+A=D, R+L=J, R+E=A? Three heads, three mothers, one very randy man of prophecy?

What if R+L= Nothing? We are told Lyanna had fever from Ned, assuming it's due to child birth we have Daenerys and Leana Velaryon with child birth fever, in both situations babies are deformed and didn't survived, Leana whose name is also similar to Lyanna died in child birth too. Rhaegar wanting the third head doesn't mean Rhaegar having the third head of dragon. 

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46 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

What if R+L= Nothing? We are told Lyanna had fever from Ned, assuming it's due to child birth we have Daenerys and Leana Velaryon with child birth fever, in both situations babies are deformed and didn't survived, Leana whose name is also similar to Lyanna died in child birth too. Rhaegar wanting the third head doesn't mean Rhaegar having the third head of dragon. 

Possible, but I don't see how that leaves any possibility for Jon to be anyone other than Ned's son.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Honestly the more I think about Rebellion timeline the more confusing it becomes so we know Tywin and Cersei along with other Lannisters(?) weren't at the Harrenhall, I think it is safe to assume Tully's weren't there too(?) since Catelyn only hears name of Ashara in Winterfell and doesn't know her husband danced with the lady in a grand tourney. Oberyn was at Harrenhall yet we never learn his reaction to Rhaegar crowning Lyanna, though he says noble Rhaegar left Elia for another woman. 

Yeah, I don’t think Catelyn or her father were at the tourney either. IMO when Brandon defeated Petyr in the duel, he told Catelyn that they would marry when he returned. Why go anywhere unless it’s a short distance away? I think Brandon left to compete in the tourney and planned to get married afterward.

As for the story that Ned danced with Ashara...lately I’ve been wondering if that story is more of an allegory full of symbolism rather than a straight literal telling of events.

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

I don't know how much time was between Bells and Trident, but from the military positions and movements, I assume that Rhaegar was under time pressure. Under normal circumstances, the Targaryens should play on time and wait for more troops. It is clear from the text that Rhaegar rushed the formation of his army, yet he is the attacker, not the defender. 

For a serious battle, both sides need a reason to fight and not retreat. I suggest that Rhaegar was marching against two different armies: the Tully-Stark-Arryn alliance and a Lannister alliance. So he had to defeat one army fast, he positioned against the larger host and the Lannister army got into his flank, with possibility to march on KL an Rhaegar's host.

Robert's forced may have had similar problems. They couldn't allow Rhaegar to cross the Trident and din't know about the Lannister position. 

Overall, from the speed the armies were assembled and Rhaegar's attack instead of fighting defensive,  I conclude that there was another issue (like Lannister) putting pressure on the Targaryens. So much pressure that they had no time to regroup on a strategic level. I don't think there was more than 6 month between Bells and Trident. Unless the Targaryens lost another army, we know nothing about.

The timetable may suggest the siege of Storm's End lasted for the better part of a year. This is true, but as someone posted earlier, Robert has to do his world journey, the rebels have to march on King's Landing and then on Storm's End. If the better part of a year ... is ten month, then there may be 5 month between Bells and Trident. 

The military movements that make me scratch my head is the path the rebels took after the Battle of the Bells at Stoney Sept, which is southeast of Riverrun, southwest of the Gods Eye, and way south of the Ruby Ford of the Trident. Why did the rebel army retreat to the north side of the river?

Edited by Feather Crystal

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2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Possible, but I don't see how that leaves any possibility for Jon to be anyone other than Ned's son.

But Jon is already Ned's son, there isn't much that changes really. 

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1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Yeah, I don’t think Catelyn or her father were at the tourney either. IMO when Brandon defeated Petyr in the duel, he told Catelyn that they would marry when he returned. Why go anywhere unless it’s a short distance away? I think Brandon left to compete in the tourney and planned to get married afterward.

As for the story that Ned danced with Ashara...lately I’ve been wondering if that story is more of an allegory full of symbolism rather than a straight literal telling of events.

The military movements that make me scratch my head is the path the rebels took after the Battle of the Bells at Stoney Sept, which is southeast of Riverrun, southwest of the Gods Eye, and way south of the Ruby Ford of the Trident. Why did the rebel army retreat to the north side of the river?

Would love to know to your ideas about their dance, btw in Dunk & Egg there is a song about Gulltown, about visiting  maiden and kissing her, is it a reference for Fisherman's daughter story?

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Posted (edited)
On 5/16/2019 at 9:50 AM, redriver said:

Please go for it.It would make a refreshing change.

If I see much more RLJ stuff I would likely hurl my PC out the window,along with the phone.

First a shout out to redriver.  Hello old friend.

I'm going to venture out on a limb (I told myself not to do that again) and agree with several of you regarding Ned's fever dream, Yandel's World Book and of course, the carnage that the mummer's show is dishing out.  Allow me to explain and if you'll indulge me.....to reference The Beverly Hillbillies.

Everyone knows the opening song about bubbling oil and Texas Tea.  But do you know where Jed Clampett is from?  Apparently, know one knows.  It is hinted at that he is from Bugtussle, which one would presume would be nearby to Petticoat Junction, or Hooterville.  Which state?  Anyone's guess but Southwest Missouri (USA) would at least put you somewhere in the ballpark.

It doesn't matter and so to my point.  When it comes to R+L=J, the tourney at Harrenhal, the PTwP and who Rhaegar might have been banging is a matter of opinion.  As someone who was once an engineer (I found a better paying gig), George is (has been) spoon feeding us and I think we are all traversing a "red herring" mine field.

I don't think anyone can say with certainty where George might be headed.  Let's hope that where he ends up is not in the direction that the mummer's are taking us.

Side note:  I'm a gullible person, so don't burn me with wildfire.

Edited by Mace Cooterian

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On 5/16/2019 at 9:52 PM, Brad Stark said:

I considered Rickard or Brandon as Jon's father.   The timing doesn't seem to work,  it probably makes Jon too old, we'd have to assume they got Jon's mother pregnant before Lyanna was captured.  And we have the SSM about Brandon's bastards which seems to rule out Jon.

If J=R+L, Ned has a very good reason to keep Jon's parentage a secret.   If Ned is the father,  it might make sense to keep the mother a secret.   But most other possibilities don't have a good reason for secrecy. 

I'd be a bit hesitant to use the SSMs to rule out anyone conceiving Jon before Lyanna was kidnapped.  GRRM seems to love to play games with the way he words his answers.

I had an occasion to go back and read the SSM where GRRM lined up Jon's age with Dany's.  The person who posed the question actually didn't come right out and ask George when Jon was born (assuming that George wouldn't answer that question).  Instead he/she tried to figure out the amount of time that elapsed between the time AGOT noted the passing of Jon's 15th nameday and the passing of Dany's 14th nameday.  The person who asked the question actually thought over a year elapsed in the book before each had noted that their nameday had come and gone.

GRRM never really answered that question, stating that the chronology in the books always gave him fits.  So rather than directly answering how much time elapsed in the books between their namedays, George came right out and stated that Jon was 8 to 9 months older than Dany.  

Now the most straighforward way of reading this, is that GRRM is acknowledging that Jon and Dany's namedays reflect their actual age thus their namedays are 8 to 9 months apart.  If so, then we must assume that Dany's nameday occurred 9 months after Rhaella and Viserys fled King's Landing.  Thus Jon was born right around the time of the Sack. 

Another way of reading this, is that Jon and Dany's actual age may be different than what their namedays reflect.  After all, we know that Jon's birth is shrouded in mystery, and perhaps Dany's is as well, depending on how much stock you put into the possibility that Viserys was full of crap, and that Dany wasn't born 9 moons after a midnight flight to Dragonstone to Rhaella (i.e. lemongate).  If this is true, then George may have actually sidestepped the reader's question, and answered instead the difference in time between their actual ages, knowing that the reader doesn't really have a good frame of reference of Dany's actual birth to do the math and try to figure out when Jon was conceived.

As for the SSM about Brandon, I think the possibility is even greater that George is leaving himself wiggle room.  After all, the SSM is that Brandon died before he had sons.  So does that mean that Brandon died before he could conceive sons?  Or does it mean that Brandon died before any of his sons were born?  Or more simply, it may mean that Brandon died before he could marry and conceive any legitimate sons.

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