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Black Crow

Heresy 221 and the Children of Winterfell

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We have the fairly cliche Tolkien ending - after the final battle, all magic leaves the world.  I am afraid we are heading this way, as we were told the reason for the imbalance of seasons is magical and will be revealed in the end, how magic seems tied to the dragons, and Leaf's speech.  Except I expect death for the Starks and Wolves and Dragons, rather than them sailing off into the sunset like Bilbo.

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2 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Darkstar is refered as Knight  Starfall so founding of HH might be recent one. 

High Hermitage is a vassal or bannerman to House Dayne, so unless you're a household knight then your sword would be sworn to the liege lord, which would be the Lord of Starfall.

2 hours ago, JNR said:

Among other things, Varys had zero reason to lie to a dying Ser Kevan, in flatly stating so... and Aegon's reality and future political prospects were Varys' primary motive to kill Kevan at all.

Just providing the text for anyone that would like to reread what reason Varys gave Kevan for killing him:

Quote

 

"Varys?"

The eunuch set the crossbow down. "Ser Kevan. Forgive me if you can. I bear you no ill will. This was not done from malice. It was for the realm. For the children."

I have children. I have a wife. Oh, Dorna. Pain washed over him. He closed his eyes, opened them again. "There are … there are hundreds of Lannister guardsmen in this castle."

"But none in this room, thankfully. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on such a cold dark night. There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes … but you were threatening to undo all the queen's good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen's rule. So …"

A gust of wind blew up. Ser Kevan shivered violently.

"Are you cold, my lord?" asked Varys. "Do forgive me. The Grand Maester befouled himself in dying, and the stink was so abominable that I thought I might choke."

Ser Kevan tried to rise, but the strength had left him. He could not feel his legs.

"I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him."

"Aegon?" For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. "Dead. He's dead."

"No." The eunuch's voice seemed deeper. "He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

Kevan Lannister tried to cry out … to his guards, his wife, his brother … but the words would not come. Blood dribbled from his mouth. He shuddered violently.

"I am sorry." Varys wrung his hands. "You are suffering, I know, yet here I stand going on like some silly old woman. Time to make an end to it." The eunuch pursed his lips and gave a little whistle.

Ser Kevan was cold as ice, and every labored breath sent a fresh stab of pain through him. He glimpsed movement, heard the soft scuffling sound of slippered feet on stone. A child emerged from a pool of darkness, a pale boy in a ragged robe, no more than nine or ten. Another rose up behind the Grand Maester's chair. The girl who had opened the door for him was there as well. They were all around him, half a dozen of them, white-faced children with dark eyes, boys and girls together.

And in their hands, the daggers.

 

Rhaegar's words to Jaime before leaving for the Trident seem to imply that he was involved with plans to overthrow his father - but what if that's not true? Maybe Varys was just putting these ideas into Aerys's head to cause him to feel paranoid? Swapping out Aegon for the Pisswater Prince would at minimum require Elia's knowledge. Rhaegar himself may not have even known. Young Griff told Tyrion that Varys carried him away - not his father.

Quote

 

The lad flushed. "That was not me. I told you. That was some tanner's son from Pisswater Bend whose mother died birthing him. His father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Arbor gold. He had other sons but had never tasted Arbor gold. Varys gave the Pisswater boy to my lady mother and carried me away."

"Aye." Tyrion moved his elephants. "And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat friend the cheesemonger, who hid you on a poleboat and found an exile lord willing to call himself your father. It does make for a splendid story, and the singers will make much of your escape once you take the Iron Throne … assuming that our fair Daenerys takes you for her consort."

 

 

2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

I have to believe a Greenseer's power goes beyond staring weirdly and talking about dead Targaryens.  The Warg powers might only involve the wolves, which being beyond the nondragon effects budget,  is a more understandable omission. 

I believe we have yet to learn all the powers of being a greenseer too. Surely there's more to it than looking at the past and present through the weirwoods and visiting people in their dreams. It's said they cannot change the past, but if you know historical events repeat themselves you could in theory change the future.

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

on the political front they missed out Aegon - unless of course that's the reason for re-naming Jon as Aegon Targaryen !

Daenerys would be Young Griff's aunt just like show Jon.

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

I know this may not be the right time to ask questions about rebellion timeline but - is it possible Elia visited Dorne after birth of Elia because Prince of Dorne died at that time? And is there any significance for Rhaegar to hide during most of the rebellion until Trident? Is it possible for third child to born before the Trident? Or is it possible Rhaegar leaved once he was sure the mother was pregnant and won't have a miscarriage? 

I do think Elia travelled to Dorne after she recovered from the birth of Rhaenys, because the timing would coincide with when she was attacked in the Kingswood. Rhaenys was born in 280 - the same year her parents were married. The tourney at Harrenhal occurred at the end of the following year, and the attack by the Kingswood Brotherhood on Elia occurred many months before the tourney. It had to have been, because there are two instances where people came into contact with the Kingswood Brotherhood. The first time is when Elia is attacked and Hightower is injured. The second contact was the detachment that Aerys sent out after them. Jaime was knighted after the detachment put the Kingswood Brotherhood out of commission roughly a month before the tourney. It seems reasonable to speculate that Elia travelled from Dragonstone to Dorne, and was attacked in the Kingswood south of Kings Landing. Why would she even be on this road unless she were returning from Dorne?

I believe Elia followed a similar route when she gave birth to Aegon. She conceived Aegon early in 281 making her pregnant at the tourney, then left for Dragonstone in preparation for the birth. Aegon was born early in 282 and his birth was said to have nearly killed her. This is why I believe Rhaegar could not have kidnapped Lyanna, because he was with Elia on Dragonstone. After her recovery they went to Dorne, and that is how Rhaegar returned from the south.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

@LynnS I hope Rickon will survive! 

I know this may not be the right time to ask questions about rebellion timeline but - is it possible Elia visited Dorne after birth of Elia because Prince of Dorne died at that time? And is there any significance for Rhaegar to hide during most of the rebellion until Trident? Is it possible for third child to born before the Trident? Or is it possible Rhaegar leaved once he was sure the mother was pregnant and won't have a miscarriage? 

Sorry, I don't have any gut feeling about Elia having left Dragonstone until she was summoned to Kingslanding.  No I don't think there is  third child in that scenario.  

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7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

while the Mummers left out the all-important Stark warging [and totally ignored the significance of Ghost] , on the political front they missed out Aegon - unless of course that's the reason for re-naming Jon as Aegon Targaryen !

Nah, I think they're just dolts. 

Rhaegar's son Aegon does exist in Show World; he was just killed by the Mountain. 

So Benioff and Weiss really were trying, with a straight face, to talk us into the idea Rhaegar had two different sons named Aegon.  Heh.

(Now, in another place, it's been argued that Book Jon was secretly named Aegon too, because that was what Rhaegar wanted his first son to be named, and Lyanna wanted to honor her true love by... uh... giving him a backup son named Aegon.   We can judge that theory as we see fit.)

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

She conceived Aegon early in 281 making her pregnant at the tourney, then left for Dragonstone in preparation for the birth. Aegon was born early in 282

Or not.  In which case the reason no one in canon remembers Elia being blatantly pregnant at Harrenhal is that she simply wasn't, and Aegon wasn't born in early 282.

Frankly, I'll take GRRM's statement on this subject over Yandel's any day.

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6 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

And is there any significance for Rhaegar to hide during most of the rebellion until Trident?

Almost certainly.  Though it's not clear exactly when he came back -- only that it was after the Battle of the Bells.

A fair amount of time then passed, and I think Rhaegar did some important things in that time before marching off to his doom. 

For instance, he issued some orders to some people.

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4 hours ago, LynnS said:

Sorry, I don't have any gut feeling about Elia having left Dragonstone until she was summoned to Kingslanding.  No I don't think there is  third child in that scenario.  

I mean third child from a second woman? 

@Feather Crystal excluding my writing errors I think it is possible for Elia to visit Dorne either after death of her mother or maybe to seek medical assistance from Orphans as they are midwives and wetnurses? 

 

@JNR do you have any ideas what kind of orders they were and to whom? 

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4 hours ago, JNR said:

Nah, I think they're just dolts. 

Rhaegar's son Aegon does exist in Show World; he was just killed by the Mountain. 

 

Ah no, what I was suggesting is that the Mummers are aware that in GRRM's world the Dance of the Dragons is intended to be a conflict between two Targaryens, ie; in the red corner Danaerys Targaryen and in the blue corner Aegon "Young Griff" Targaryen. Having totally ignored the latter the Mummers may therefore have renamed Jon Snow as Aegon in his place

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5 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

I mean third child from a second woman?

Yes, Ashara Dayne is high on my list.

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The original Dance with Dragons involved literal dragons fighting, not just Targaryens. 

If GRRM intended a second Dance, either it will be completely different from the first, or Griff needs a lot more dragons.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, JNR said:

Almost certainly.  Though it's not clear exactly when he came back -- only that it was after the Battle of the Bells.

A fair amount of time then passed, and I think Rhaegar did some important things in that time before marching off to his doom. 

For instance, he issued some orders to some people.

(Whoop, grabbed the wrong post)

There’s no doubt Aegon was born during the first quarter of 282. Anything later gets a bit tricky for Rhaegar to find the time to impregnate Elia and be there for his birth on Dragonstone and still find time to head out on the road with his friends near the beginning of 282.

GRRM said Aegon was a year old at the Sack give or take a moon or two. In other words 10-14 months old in 283.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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7 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Ah no, what I was suggesting is that the Mummers are aware that in GRRM's world the Dance of the Dragons is intended to be a conflict between two Targaryens

Cross-world symbolism -- "we're naming him Aegon to reflect that he has Book Aegon's role" -- doesn't mean anything at all to the vast majority of show fans, who never read the books and never will. 

And really, I don't even believe D&D ponder this stuff that deeply. 

These are the same folks who told us the first white walker was made by tying a first man to a tree and stabbing him with dragonglass; they have no idea what they're doing. 

That they would name him Aegon is just typical of their striking failure to preserve continuity, for instance by remembering that in their show they already established Rhaegar had a previous son named Aegon.

8 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

@JNR do you have any ideas what kind of orders they were and to whom? 

Certainly.  The three Kingsguard associated with the TOJ dream.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Anything later gets a bit tricky for Rhaegar to find the time to impregnate Elia and be there for his birth on Dragonstone and still find time to head out on the road with his friends near the beginning of 282.

Well, let's be clear about what Yandel says:

Quote

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon.  With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants

So we know Rhaegar left "with the coming of the new year."  First week of January, in our terms.

And hence, according to Yandel, Aegon was already born at that point.

Then, according to Yandel, Rhaegar chose to bail on his "young son," and Elia, right after Aegon was born, even though Elia (of whom he was supposed to be very fond) had just nearly died bringing his heir into the world.  And despite blizzard conditions unlike anything Rhaegar had ever seen in his life.

We can believe that or not as we see fit.  As for me, I find it preposterous on its face and am quite sure Yandel has played games with history, rearranging events exactly as GRRM told us was happening in the World book, explicitly, in the Vulture interview.

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On 5/8/2019 at 7:18 AM, Brad Stark said:

Is Cersei hooking up with Euron a thing in the books?  He really isn't her type. 

Euron wants Dany, but what he really wants is power. If he hooks up with Cersei, it will only be to use her. Imo.

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32 minutes ago, JNR said:

Cross-world symbolism -- "we're naming him Aegon to reflect that he has Book Aegon's role" -- doesn't mean anything at all to the vast majority of show fans, who never read the books and never will. 

And really, I don't even believe D&D ponder this stuff that deeply. 

These are the same folks who told us the first white walker was made by tying a first man to a tree and stabbing him with dragonglass; they have no idea what they're doing. 

That they would name him Aegon is just typical of their striking failure to preserve continuity, for instance by remembering that in their show they already established Rhaegar had a previous son named Aegon.

Certainly.  The three Kingsguard associated with the TOJ dream.

Well, let's be clear about what Yandel says:

So we know Rhaegar left "with the coming of the new year."  First week of January, in our terms.

And hence, according to Yandel, Aegon was already born at that point.

Then, according to Yandel, Rhaegar chose to bail on his "young son," and Elia, right after Aegon was born, even though Elia (of whom he was supposed to be very fond) had just nearly died bringing his heir into the world.  And despite blizzard conditions unlike anything Rhaegar had ever seen in his life.

We can believe that or not as we see fit.  As for me, I find it preposterous on its face and am quite sure Yandel has played games with history, rearranging events exactly as GRRM told us was happening in the World book, explicitly, in the Vulture interview.

I don't believe Yandel's account either, but your insistence that Elia was not pregnant at the tourney is just preposterous. When, pray tell, do you think he was born?

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18 minutes ago, TNTW said:

Euron wants Dany, but what he really wants is power. If he hooks up with Cersei, it will only be to use her. Imo.

Yep. Euron and Cersei, while I see them being married, won't last very long. Euron will dispose of Cersei when the time comes, giving the Falia Flowers treatment (or the Aeron treatment which will probably be worse). Cersei will once again find herself  in a horrific situation of her own making that she can't wriggle out of. Unlike with the Faith where she got to walk away, this time, she'll die.

20 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And of course, while the Mummers left out the all-important Stark warging [and totally ignored the significance of Ghost] , on the political front they missed out Aegon - unless of course that's the reason for re-naming Jon as Aegon Targaryen !

While prophecy can be a dodgy business so far as Westeros is concerned I can confidently predict that in GRRM's version we are on the one hand going to find the Stark warging powers being very important, not just for Bran but for Jon and his sisters and Winterfell itself. While on the political front there will be a Dance of the Dragons featuring Danaerys Targaryen on the one hand and an Aegon Targaryen [?] - who isn't R+L=Jon Targaryen on the other.

There's an awful lot still to come from GRRM which will owe nothing to the Mummers

You know, the decisions that D&D have made kinda make me sick. Like I really would have been fine with the fact that Bran being the only warg in the family and Daenerys being the only dragonrider...but for the two of them not to do much of anything in the final fight against the Others.

Like it makes no sense that dragonfire would do nothing to the Big Bad White Walker and that Bran would just space out in his wheelchair in the godswood...and do nothing.

22 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I meant it in the literal sense that I'm not sure Dany will ever physically sit the Iron Throne or occupy KL, even briefly. More specifically, I'm not sure that she sits the IT if GRRM aspires to finish within two books, or even three books.

To do any justice to the Others invasion as a plot line, I believe it already has to have been formally kicked off (eg, the Wall has failed) by the beginning of a hypothetical final book--for now, lets say that's book 7.

At the same time, Dany's hypothetical unfinished business includes the Dothraki, Meereen, obtaining passage across the Narrow Sea, the Euron plot line, having some kind of homecoming arc where we find out how various regions will react to her, and a second Dance of the Dragons with Young Griff. In the midst of all of that, there's also whatever it is that Littlefinger is planning.

IMO, GRRM either has to check off Dany's list of plot points at a pace he has never achieved up to this point (and, consequently, have many of them play out in a rushed and unsatisfying fashion), has to expand the book count, or he's going to have some of Dany's invasion arc running concurrently with the Others invading the north--and, consequently, she may be brought into the fray against the Others without all of her other issues cleanly resolved.

The bold blue part.

A song of ice and fire = Westeros buckling under the weight of two invasions, Daenerys Stormborn (fire) in the South and the Others (ice) in the North.

Yes, Dany is going to have to drop everything so that she can focus her attention on the Others. But I think there will be plenty of time for her to try and pick up where she left off. That's the "scourging of the Shire" part of the story: Dany going south again and finding that Aegon has been butchered, that Euron has f*****d everything up, that the Lovecraftian Deep Ones have weaseled their way onto the surface and she's public enemy #1.

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28 minutes ago, TNTW said:

Euron wants Dany, but what he really wants is power. If he hooks up with Cersei, it will only be to use her. Imo.

Yes, exactly. 

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At this point I am really beginning to question the whole R+L=J thing. Almost seems too obvious. E+A=J seems to fit better. I am truly wondering if Howland Reed did take the child of Lyanna and Rhaegar home with him (as I do believe there was a child), and that Jon truly is Ned's bastard. Could Meera actually be that child? 

I know that's an old theory, but I am finally starting to believe it has a chance. It just seems like the Daynes and Dawn have to fit into this puzzle somewhere, and Howland Reed basically disappearing, for the most part, since then, could fit in there as well.

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Edric Dayne was very young when his father died - too young to assume his duties as Lord of Starfall, so his aunt Allyria arranged for him to become Beric Dondarrion's page after her betrothal to him. He was raised to squire by the age of 10, and by the time Arya met him he was 12 and still Beric's squire. While he's not mentioned by name once Lady Stoneheart becomes their new leader, the wiki claims he left the Brotherhood after Beric stayed dead. The wiki also claims some of the members abandoned after Beric's death. I've checked the sources that the wiki gives for Edric, but neither reference was useful.

Edric's location at the end of Dance seems to be undocumented, but he could have remained with the Brotherhood and just not be mentioned directly by name. It is also possible that Lem Lemoncloak took him on as his squire, or that the boy returned to Starfall. In any case, I think he's a serious contender to become the next Sword of the Morning, unless the Dayne's have more unnamed males living at Starfall. I just don't see Darkstar as being thought of as deserving.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, JNR said:

So we know Rhaegar left "with the coming of the new year."  First week of January, in our terms.

Ah, well not necessarily. Until Britain [and America] switched from the Julian to the Gregorian calendar in 1752 the new year began on March 25 [Lady Day] which is why the tax year is normally calculated from the beginning of April in each year. 

Edited by Black Crow

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10 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 I just don't see Darkstar as being thought of as deserving.

Perhaps he's bitter and twisted because he was turned down for the job

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TNTW said:

At this point I am really beginning to question the whole R+L=J thing. Almost seems too obvious. E+A=J seems to fit better. I am truly wondering if Howland Reed did take the child of Lyanna and Rhaegar home with him (as I do believe there was a child), and that Jon truly is Ned's bastard. Could Meera actually be that child? 

I know that's an old theory, but I am finally starting to believe it has a chance. It just seems like the Daynes and Dawn have to fit into this puzzle somewhere, and Howland Reed basically disappearing, for the most part, since then, could fit in there as well.

We miserable heretics [among others] have been questioning R+L=J for years. Its obvious nature does suggest it may be a red herring to distract from something else entirely and not necessarily some other hidden heir

As I remarked in the OP the mummers' treatment of the issue is interesting in that they seem to be following fan theory in "confirming" rather than anything GRRM has told them because having proclaimed the truth of R+L=J they clearly have no idea what to do with that revelation. The faithful have variously and confidently proclaimed him the rightful heir to the Iron Throne - not interested. He has also of course been proclaimed Azor Ahai/Prince that was Promised the union of Ice and Fire - nope, that doesn't happen either and the big bad got offed by Arya. Now granted we're dealing with the mummers, but if either [or both] scenario belonged to GRRM there should surely be some hint of this in the outcome

 

Edited by Black Crow

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