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Heresy 221 and the Children of Winterfell

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7 hours ago, St Daga said:

Now, we are told that Ned was 18 at Harrenhal, but he could also be just barely 18 or a month away from turning 19, GRRM is almost taunting us with the vagueness.

It's not that much of a taunt, IMO, if the goal is just to establish the gap between Harrenhal and the war.

• Ned was 18 at Harrenhal

• The Rebellion lasted "close to a year" (meaning somewhat less than a year)

So if the war kicked off fairly soon after Harrenhal, then clearly Ned would only be 19... or at best, only just 20, when the war ended

But that simply isn't the case.  So we know there was a long gap between Harrenhal and the war, and we also know Jon was not conceived at Harrenhal, which was much too early.

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, JNR said:

It's not that much of a taunt, IMO, if the goal is just to establish the gap between Harrenhal and the war.

• Ned was 18 at Harrenhal

• The Rebellion lasted "close to a year" (meaning somewhat less than a year)

So if the war kicked off fairly soon after Harrenhal, then clearly Ned would only be 19... or at best, only just 20, when the war ended

But that simply isn't the case.  So we know there was a long gap between Harrenhal and the war, and we also know Jon was not conceived at Harrenhal, which was much too early.

I don't see the logic in stretching this out. Ned turned 19 after the tourney and was 19 when the war began. By the end of 282 he turned 20, and was 20 during the Sack in 283, and 20 when Robb was born. A Game of Thrones begins in 298 when Ned was 35. The Rebellion ended 15 years ago in 283, proving Ned was 20. Robb was born in 283 - he'd have to have been if he was 14 when the story begins in 298, turning 15 part way through the year.

There wasn't much of a gap between the tourney and when Jon Arryn raised his banners. I'd say roughly 3 months. The tourney is the whole reason to setup the false romance between Rhaegar and Lyanna. His crowing her queen of love and beauty made the abduction story plausible. All of the events are a trail of dominoes, one leading to the other...

After the tourney, Brandon's plan was to return to Riverrun for his wedding to Catelyn, but he "heard about Lyanna" on his way and rode to Kings Landing instead. Lyanna went missing in January of 282, so Brandon's wedding must have been planned for January 282, which suggests that Brandon's duel with Petyr was likely prior to the tourney.

It all makes logistical sense to travel down from Winterfell, stop at Riverrun to announce the wedding date, duel with Petyr, leave to compete in the tourney, and then return to Riverrun for the wedding, only to end up riding to Kings Landing. I suspect the reason why Lyanna wasn't riding with him was because she was with Benjen returning home so that he could be the Stark in Winterfell to allow Rickard to attend Brandon's wedding. 

Edited by Feather Crystal

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1 hour ago, Neddy's Girl said:

I wouldn't be disappointed if RLJ is true, but I also feel it's been demonstrated just how hollow focussing on his "Targaryeness" becomes.  I've not considered Dany being dead before, but I agree that there must be consequences from Jon's death. 

RLJ has never been the problem for me, the problem has always be the tower of contradictions.

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4 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

RLJ has never been the problem for me, the problem has always be the tower of contradictions.

Quite - and that's what so revealing about the way the Mummers are so very obviously stumbling around in the dark.

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1 hour ago, LynnS said:

I lean towards Dany as the pwip and so then she is Rhaegar's sister, but I'm inclined to think Rhaegar and Ashara's daughter.

The great red temple at Volantis would make a good dragon pit.  I have a gut feeling that R'hllor is a very old dragon.

I see two related options. She is Rhaegar and Ashara's daugther and Ned delivered her to Lys Red Temple to keep her alive risk free and as she looked too Valyrian. A courtesan seems to be a reasonable honorable option in Planetos. He kept Jon as he could pass as his own but then sent him to the NW when risks increased.

The other option is the Red Priests using magic to make their promised saviour by manipulating dragonlord bloodlines.

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

 

But Yandel's tale is deeply problematic as a whole for other reasons.  Boiled down, it looks like this:

• The false spring happened in the last two months of the year, and was deemed over when winter returned at the very end of the year

• Elia, known to be frail and sickly, went to Harrenhal... despite being within a few weeks of giving birth

• No one in canon recalls her being pregnant

• Soon after Harrenhal, she gave birth to Aegon

• Immediately after that -- "with the turn of the new year" -- Rhaegar left on a long road trip for no apparent reason

• He did not care that his wife Elia had just nearly died -- his road trip was more important

• He also did not care about the winter being so incredibly bad, for weeks after he left, that the Blackwater literally froze over

This is just a disaster of a story, the sort of failed continuity we see in the show all the time.  It's also  the kind of logical mess GRRM's remarks warned us to expect.

I'm not sure that anyone would have bothered to make a point on commenting that Elia was in foal. Its a normal part of life.

However just by way of throwing a random thought out there with regard to point 5 onwards, there may be a bit of misinformation by Yandel here. The traditional version per Trouserless Bob/Yandel and the R+L=J disciples is that Lyanna turns up in the crowd at Harrenhal, then performs so spectacularly as a mystery knight that Rhaegar falls madly in love, obtains a chaplet of blue roses by way of next day delivery through Amazon, and then immediately elopes with her.

However, as you note the weather turned spectacularly bad after Harrenhal - which doesn't really jibe with a romantic assignation

So why did Rhaegar ride out? 

Were the blue roses, as I've suggested before, a political rather than a romantic gesture - and why did Aerys want Trouserless Bob's head?

Or did Rhaegar ride out after the weather went bad, precisely because Winter had returned?

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35 minutes ago, Tucu said:

I see two related options. She is Rhaegar and Ashara's daugther and Ned delivered her to Lys Red Temple to keep her alive risk free and as she looked too Valyrian. A courtesan seems to be a reasonable honorable option in Planetos. He kept Jon as he could pass as his own but then sent him to the NW when risks increased.

The other option is the Red Priests using magic to make their promised saviour by manipulating dragonlord bloodlines.

I think Ned did have something to do with hiding Ashara and her daughter but I doubt he would countenance sending them into prostitution.
He does suggest that Cersei do the same thing and flee to Essos.

Quote

 

A Game of Thrones - Eddard XV

When he thought of his daughters, he would have wept gladly, but the tears would not come. Even now, he was a Stark of Winterfell, and his grief and his rage froze hard inside him.

When he kept very still, his leg did not hurt so much, so he did his best to lie unmoving. For how long he could not say. There was no sun and no moon. He could not see to mark the walls. Ned closed his eyes and opened them; it made no difference. He slept and woke and slept again. He did not know which was more painful, the waking or the sleeping. When he slept, he dreamed: dark disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises. When he woke, there was nothing to do but think, and his waking thoughts were worse than nightmares. The thought of Cat was as painful as a bed of nettles. He wondered where she was, what she was doing. He wondered whether he would ever see her again.

 

I've wondered about the broken promises and whether this has something to do with keeping Ashara's daughter safe (from Robert).

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2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Lets just focus on Aegon's conception and birth, which we know was in 282 if he was to be about a year when he died in 283.

You just contradicted Yandel, since he claims Aegon was already born when Rhaegar went on his imaginary road trip in the middle of the blizzard, which Yandel says was the minute 282 began:

Quote

Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends

Now, if you don't believe Yandel, what are we arguing about?

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48 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

However, as you note the weather turned spectacularly bad after Harrenhal - which doesn't really jibe with a romantic assignation

So why did Rhaegar ride out? 

Oh, I don't think he did.

Here's another point on that same subject, though.  We know for sure Brandon was just about to be married when Lyanna vanished.  Because:

Quote

Brandon had been twenty when he died, strangled by order of the Mad King Aerys Targaryen only a few short days before he was to wed Catelyn Tully of Riverrun.

Why would anybody hold a wedding of two Great Houses... requiring extensive travel of many people... in the middle of a horrible winter? 

We're not talking about the modern world with sealed heated planes and cars that go dozens or hundreds of miles an hour; we're talking about Westeros.

We also know the wedding could not have been planned for any time during the false spring, because Yandel spells out that Rhaegar began his long road trip precisely when the winter "returned with a vengeance" and that this incredibly bad winter then went on and on for weeks.  Yandel says it was at the end of this supposed road trip that he "ultimately" fell on Lyanna near Harrenhal.

It just doesn't seem to make much sense.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I think Ned did have something to do with hiding Ashara and her daughter but I doubt he would countenance sending them into prostitution.
He does suggest that Cersei do the same thing and flee to Essos.

I've wondered about the broken promises and whether this has something to do with keeping Ashara's daughter safe (from Robert).

The tale around the ToJ was a low point for Ned's honour, so I would not look at what he would approve but at what were his practical options to keep the girl alive without leaving traces that would endager her and his family. Courtesans can have a comfortable life and can rise in the social ladder. He was capable of sending Jon to The Wall were comfort is non-existent and there are only traces of honour left.

Edited by Tucu

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, JNR said:

You just contradicted Yandel, since he claims Aegon was already born when Rhaegar went on his imaginary road trip in the middle of the blizzard, which Yandel says was the minute 282 began:

Now, if you don't believe Yandel, what are we arguing about?

Yandel is attributing Rhaegar’s absence to a road trip, whereas I’m asserting he was attending Aegon’s birth. By the time Brandon arrived in Kings Landing, Rhaegar and Elia were sailing to Dorne.

4 hours ago, JNR said:

Oh, I don't think he did.

Here's another point on that same subject, though.  We know for sure Brandon was just about to be married when Lyanna vanished.  Because:

Why would anybody hold a wedding of two Great Houses... requiring extensive travel of many people... in the middle of a horrible winter? 

We're not talking about the modern world with sealed heated planes and cars that go dozens or hundreds of miles an hour; we're talking about Westeros.

We also know the wedding could not have been planned for any time during the false spring, because Yandel spells out that Rhaegar began his long road trip precisely when the winter "returned with a vengeance" and that this incredibly bad winter then went on and on for weeks.  Yandel says it was at the end of this supposed road trip that he "ultimately" fell on Lyanna near Harrenhal.

It just doesn't seem to make much sense.

I think Brandon stopped at Riverrun on his way to the tourney. His wedding is announced for after the tourney. His duel with Petyr occurs, and then he tells Catelyn that they will be married upon his return. At that time everyone thought it was Spring, so there shouldn’t have been an issue with a January wedding. 

After the tourney Brandon heads back to Riverrun while Lyanna and Benjen head home. Her abduction occurred after they separated ways, and Brandon hears about her abduction before he got all the way to Riverrun. Since it’s said Lyanna went missing in early January, then Brandon’s wedding must have been scheduled for January. People would have already ventured out because of the tourney not knowing winter was soon to return.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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Way off topic...I am loving the "Are we the baddies?" moment going on in the show forums

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Tucu said:

The tale around the ToJ was a low point for Ned's honour, so I would not look at what he would approve but at what were his practical options to keep the girl alive without leaving traces that would endager her and his family. Courtesans can have a comfortable life and can rise in the social ladder. He was capable of sending Jon to The Wall were comfort is non-existent and there are only traces of honour left.

Sorry, I just don't see it this way.  As for the Lys connection, there is also Varys and Mopatis who are thick with plans for Dany, Viserys and Aegon.  Dany's early memory of soft hands may not fit with a weapon's master like Ser Willem, but they do describe Varys.  I think whatever went on with the marriage contract between Dorne and Derry had more to do with Varys/Mopatis machinations than anything.  Varys would have the connections for hiding someone in Lys.  Ned may have helped Ashara to disappear but I doubt he would want her or her daughter to become courtesans.  She had money after all.  I entertain the notion that Varys hid Dany and Mopatis hid Aegon for a time. I still think that Lemore is Ashara.  I think it was Varys who recruited Connington and gang as well as Ser Willem.

Jon more or less insisted on joining the Night's Watch.  Ned was surprised but allowed it.

     

Edited by LynnS

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8 hours ago, Tucu said:

Way off topic...I am loving the "Are we the baddies?" moment going on in the show forums

I went looking, but didn't find. You should have provided a link. ;)

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I went looking, but didn't find. You should have provided a link. ;)

It is sprinkled all over the main episode discussion thread and the rant and rave threads. Now there is also a dedicated thread to look at Dany's psychology:

 

Edited by Tucu

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