Why would Kevin care about Daenerys?

[Tyrion1991]

I didn’t understand the way this scene was framed. The characters talk as if there’s this imminent threat just looming over the horizon. Already Kevin’s dwelling on the loyalty of Mace Tyrell if Dany arrived.

But she’s thousands of miles away in Slavers Bay embroiled in her own war. This chapter is written as if Dany might be showing up early in the next novel; but this is extremely unlikely. The characters shouldn’t even consider the notion that Danys army might rock up to help Aegon. Don’t they know about the Daemon Road, Valyrias stormy seas and her lack of a navy? They don’t know Vic is going to Mereen or that Dany might open up the Dothraki Sea. From their vantage Dany is trapped in Slavers Bay. 

I get that GRRM wanted dramatic effect by having Kevin appear forward thinking and a steady hand; before getting killed by Varys. But I think it’s more than that. It’s as if GRRM knew people might be annoyed at Dany still being in Essos; so he wrote an epilogue implying that “next time” she would be arriving.

But to me that just rings false to the situation and it’s even a little condescending to tease something that won’t happen until ADOS. Whenever ADOS gets published that is.

 

[BlackLightning]

7 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I didn’t understand the way this scene was framed. The characters talk as if there’s this imminent threat just looming over the horizon. Already Kevin’s dwelling on the loyalty of Mace Tyrell if Dany arrived.

But she’s thousands of miles away in Slavers Bay embroiled in her own war. This chapter is written as if Dany might be showing up early in the next novel; but this is extremely unlikely. The characters shouldn’t even consider the notion that Danys army might rock up to help Aegon. Don’t they know about the Daemon Road, Valyrias stormy seas and her lack of a navy? They don’t know Vic is going to Mereen or that Dany might open up the Dothraki Sea. From their vantage Dany is trapped in Slavers Bay. 

I get that GRRM wanted dramatic effect by having Kevin appear forward thinking and a steady hand; before getting killed by Varys. But I think it’s more than that. It’s as if GRRM knew people might be annoyed at Dany still being in Essos; so he wrote an epilogue implying that “next time” she would be arriving.

But to me that just rings false to the situation and it’s even a little condescending to tease something that won’t happen until ADOS. Whenever ADOS gets published that is.

 

You're approaching this from a 21st century perspective.

You have to remember that information travels a lot more slowly in the medieval era...even fictional ones with messenger ravens. The world was a lot smaller back then. 200 miles away might not seem like much now but we have cars, trains, buses and planes to compensate. 200 miles away back then would take what a week of travel. And that's a big if because travelling in those days was hard, expensive and dangerous even for rich people.

[Tyrion1991]

4 hours ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

You're approaching this from a 21st century perspective.

You have to remember that information travels a lot more slowly in the medieval era...even fictional ones with messenger ravens. The world was a lot smaller back then. 200 miles away might not seem like much now but we have cars, trains, buses and planes to compensate. 200 miles away back then would take what a week of travel. And that's a big if because travelling in those days was hard, expensive and dangerous even for rich people.

 

Imagine moving an army across that distance?

 

[BlackLightning]

7 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

 

Imagine moving an army across that distance?

 

Not that hard to imagine because it has happened in history.

In fact, believe it or not, entire armies could move faster than word of mouth.

[SirArthur]

12 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I get that GRRM wanted dramatic effect by having Kevin appear forward thinking and a steady hand; before getting killed by Varys. But I think it’s more than that. It’s as if GRRM knew people might be annoyed at Dany still being in Essos; so he wrote an epilogue implying that “next time” she would be arriving.

The case of Dany is a weird one. Robert is also obsessed with her, although "her" original plan was to support Viserys. However Robert never has a problem with Viserys or any Blackfyre pretender. In the case of the Blackfyres it is even mentioned that only females survive. And yet Dany is Robert's big problem he deems worthy to assassinate. Why ? Because of some Dothraki thread that could work for Blackfyres or Viserys. 

It's not really coherent. Any female Blackfyre could also marry a Dothraki. 

[corbon]

21 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I didn’t understand the way this scene was framed. The characters talk as if there’s this imminent threat just looming over the horizon. Already Kevin’s dwelling on the loyalty of Mace Tyrell if Dany arrived.

That is appropriate to the information level they have.

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But she’s thousands of miles away in Slavers Bay embroiled in her own war. This chapter is written as if Dany might be showing up early in the next novel; but this is extremely unlikely.

They don't know that. The've barely heard Dany is 'active'. Note that Kevan muses 

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"Mad she may be," Ser Kevan said, "but with so much smoke drifting west, surely there must be some fire burning in the east."

They know very little, and don't know how much of what they've heard is true. Thus the "if smoke then fire" reference. They are dealing with smoke now, so must assume some fire.

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The characters shouldn’t even consider the notion that Danys army might rock up to help Aegon.

Why not? Sure, the Targaryens and Blackfyres were enemies, but they were the same house and heritage. Having been dispossessed, its more than reasonable to assume that like the brothers they are, they drop their internal fights, at least temporarily, in order to recover the wider family position.
Arguably, it would be unreasonable and negligent, to not assume so.

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Don’t they know about the Daemon Road, Valyrias stormy seas and her lack of a navy?

No to the lack of a navy. Anyway, that can be overcome, one way or another. Que Vic. Or the TV series answer, or any one of a dozen other possibilities.

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From their vantage Dany is trapped in Slavers Bay. 

They don't even know she's in Slavers Bay. let alone trapped there. They've heard, but what to trust and what not to? Note Pycelle's reference to the many different stories about a silver haired queen with three dragoons. They're probably still getting mixed stories generated by her presence in Quarth, as well as Meereen. 
You'd have to be an insane moron in-world to not agree with Kevan's statement about the probability Dany will turn her head towards Westeros.
And he is 100% right. Thats been her plan all along even if she may have put it on hold for now.

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I get that GRRM wanted dramatic effect by having Kevin appear forward thinking and a steady hand; before getting killed by Varys. But I think it’s more than that. It’s as if GRRM knew people might be annoyed at Dany still being in Essos; so he wrote an epilogue implying that “next time” she would be arriving.

I think he's written a fairly accurate summation of what Kevan might know and think. 

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But to me that just rings false to the situation and it’s even a little condescending to tease something that won’t happen until ADOS. Whenever ADOS gets published that is.

 

I think Kevan, and GRRM, are a fair bit smarter.

[Tyrion1991]

Not really, it’s actually irrelevant since Pycelle and Kevin die immediately after this. They have no reason to consider rumours from across the other side of the world. Even if they generally know that she is in Slavers Bay or Qarth they would know that the logistics of moving any army from there to Westeros would be insurmountable. We are told point blank that Dany would have lost all her Unsullied if she took the only road to Volantis.

GRRM wanted to start making it feel as if Dany was part of the main story in Westeros despite there being no possibility of her being introduced until ADOS. It is a teaser. You are meant to read this and think “ohhh, Danys coming in TWOW”. When in fact that won’t happen. Such a teaser is misleading. This of sort of discussion should not be relevant until Danys a lot closer to Westeros.

At best they should send somebody to find more information and then move on to other matters. Instead the scene is overly dramatised and the characters act as if they are aware of the threat Daenerys poses to them. Assuming she might have full grown dragons. Assuming she has an army. Assuming she has a fleet. Why should they be discussing a teenage girl with no claim to the Iron Throne and no support. The Golden Company’s invasion is the immediate priority. We as the reader can infer that Dany might be a big deal later on; but nobody should be thinking that right now.

So no, I don’t think it was in character. It felt like an empty teaser for something that won’t happen until ADOS. He didn’t need to have their last discussion be of Dany; he did that to tease Danys story in TWOW.

[BlackLightning]

7 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

Not really, it’s actually irrelevant since Pycelle and Kevin die immediately after this. They have no reason to consider rumours from across the other side of the world. Even if they generally know that she is in Slavers Bay or Qarth they would know that the logistics of moving any army from there to Westeros would be insurmountable. We are told point blank that Dany would have lost all her Unsullied if she took the only road to Volantis.

GRRM wanted to start making it feel as if Dany was part of the main story in Westeros despite there being no possibility of her being introduced until ADOS. It is a teaser. You are meant to read this and think “ohhh, Danys coming in TWOW”. When in fact that won’t happen. Such a teaser is misleading. This of sort of discussion should not be relevant until Danys a lot closer to Westeros.

At best they should send somebody to find more information and then move on to other matters. Instead the scene is overly dramatised and the characters act as if they are aware of the threat Daenerys poses to them. Assuming she might have full grown dragons. Assuming she has an army. Assuming she has a fleet. Why should they be discussing a teenage girl with no claim to the Iron Throne and no support. The Golden Company’s invasion is the immediate priority. We as the reader can infer that Dany might be a big deal later on; but nobody should be thinking that right now.

So no, I don’t think it was in character. It felt like an empty teaser for something that won’t happen until ADOS. He didn’t need to have their last discussion be of Dany; he did that to tease Danys story in TWOW.

LOL

How is it suddenly irrelevant because Pycelle and Kevan died immediately after this? They weren't the only ones in the room having this conversation. Mace Tyrell is in the room and he's the Hand of the King, the Warden of the South, and the Lord of Highgarden. Hello!

[Nevets]

The news Kevan is hearing is several months old.  Quite a bit can happen in that amount of time.  Kevan has no real idea of Daenerys's plans, but has good reason to assume that her ultimate goal is Westeros.  And by the time he hears that she has left Meereen, she will probably just about be on Westeros's doorstep.  The time to start planning is now, so that when they hear something definitive, they are more or less prepared.

[Tyrion1991]

5 minutes ago, Jabar of House Titan said:

LOL

How is it suddenly irrelevant because Pycelle and Kevan died immediately after this? They weren't the only ones in the room having this conversation. Mace Tyrell is in the room and he's the Hand of the King, the Warden of the South, and the Lord of Highgarden. Hello!

 

Because the purpose of bringing Dany into the conversation is essentially a “next time on a Song of Ice and Fire”; implying that Dany would arrive in TWOW. This is not going to happen. So I think there’s a bit of dishonesty going on. It’s as bad as the back cover of Storm of Swords saying Dany was going to Westeros. 

I don’t think Mace Tyrell is going to be bothering with Dany considering he’s preoccupied with Margery and Aegon.

Its bad practice to tease a plot point that isn’t going to be happening in the book.

 

[Tyrion1991]

Just now, Nevets said:

The news Kevan is hearing is several months old.  Quite a bit can happen in that amount of time.  Kevan has no real idea of Daenerys's plans, but has good reason to assume that her ultimate goal is Westeros.  And by the time he hears that she has left Meereen, she will probably just about be on Westeros's doorstep.  The time to start planning is now, so that when they hear something definitive, they are more or less prepared.

 

This chapter is only just after Danys vision in the Dothraki Sea. You’re suggesting that Danys storyline is several years out of sync with the Westeros plot. Victarions crossing suggests they are happening near simultaneously.

He has no reason to care without breaking the forth wall. Dany is a teenage girl many thousands of miles away. Across country that is desolate and impossible to transport large armies across. He doesn’t know that she is a threat and has every reason to believe that she is too far from Westeros to be relevant.

Kevin would need to know that Dany had taken Mereen and has 10,000 Unsullied. Even then, I would point to the distances involved and the impossibility of her getting to Westeros without opening up the Dothraki Sea or a fleet randomly joining her. Kevin can not possibly know that these are on possibilities on the table. 

Dany is not on the horizon for Kevin. It’s framed in the chapter as if Danys part of the narrative in Westeros. When she just isn’t. She’s only just decided to carry on with her journey and is further away from Westeros than she could possibly be. Nobody in Westeros should be thinking, “well we better get ready for a teenage girl taking all the Dothraki and riding to Pentos”. Which is what Kevin is doing because Dany can’t get an army to Westeros without inconceivable plot events like the Dothraki and Iron Fleet joining her. 

This was done for dramatic effect in the epilogue and to try and tie it to the conclusion of Danys story where she vows to give to Westeros. The characters in the story have no reason yet to conceive of Dany as a threat for many years; if at all.