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Tygett Lannister

Game: You are Littlefinger, what do you do?

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Let say you are Littlefinger in the situation that is latest known to us.
You have this information or will have fairly soon:
- Stannis victory over Wildings in the North.
- Ironborn invasion of Shield Islands.
- Aegons invasion of Stormlands.
- Situation in Kingslanding (Kevans death, Mace new Regent, Faith trials...).
- Death of Lord Commander Jon Snow.
- Daenerys is in Dothratki sea (Penny being LF agent).
You have strong presence in Kingslanding from setting up men loyal to you in time of your service as master of coin and the Kettlebacks, also you are probably the richest man in Westeros since you robbed the crown of money (believe me Robert didn't spend 6 milion on tournaments).
You are currently organising a tournament to get 8 Guards for Robin Arryn. Since you can rig the match ups which would you pick to win their places in the Guard. They would potentially be your wards (hostages). You have kidnapped Tyrek Lannister in riots of KL and hold him hidden there.  There is a question of what to do with Alayne/Sansa. You could have her marry Harry the Heir as Sansa Stark and have Robin poisoned with overdose. Vale can then try to take North for Sansa, but winter is coming. You can have Alayne legitimised (ask Tommen or crown Robin King) and marry Harry the Heir to Alayne (if legitimised she is heir to Riverlands as LF is de jure Lord of Riverlands so marriage is definitely possible). Of course there is option of marrying Sansa yourself, anyhow you reveal Sansa you become the enemy of the Tommens rule.

Try to stay in what you believe to be Littlefingers character.

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Too many people underestimate Littlefinger.  That is mostly true for Sansa;s fans.  Don't you think Littlefinger knows her better than you all do?  He does.  He will use her to get something he wants and then he will dispose of her like he did with Dontos.  He's doing what he can based on what he thinks is happening.  Speculating that the winter will cause food shortage and he wants to have enough food to use against the other kingdoms.  He will need to get rid of any extra mouths to have to feed.  A war among the families in the Eyrie might not be a bad thing.  Too many consumers is the enemy of long-term survival when food is scarce. 

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2 hours ago, 867-5309 said:

He will use her to get something he wants and then he will dispose of her like he did with Dontos.

I always assumed his long term goal is actually to marry Sansa himself. Either that or he sees her as his daughter. He went to great trouble to get her out, and not just because she's a good game piece. He's obviously always been infatuated by Catelyn and Sansa has her looks. Plus, now he's had some time and will continue to instill his mind in her. 

Anyway, on to the OP, I think you continue to wait. Time is Littlefinger's friend right now. The longer he acts as regent and gets the lords of the Vale used to him, the more power he can actually wield. I have my doubts that Harry the Heir is actually Littlefinger's end plan anyway. If I'm Littlefinger, I prefer acting as regent to Sweetrobin as long as possible. I've got Sansa who knows how to deal with him and meanwhile I can do as I please.

As for the tournament, Mychel Redfort seems like he'll be one. He's mentioned as being one of the best young swords of the Vale. Plus, he has connections to two houses (Royce by marriage) of the Lords Declarant. I think I'd use at least some of the 8 places to have some kind of lever with those houses that oppose me, especially those associated with the Lords Declarant. One of the Waynwoods would also be a good choice, Donnel is the current Knight of the Gate so he's probably got some chops, but I think I'd want Wallace because he seems a lot sweeter and more tractable. Obviously, you can only rig things so much tho. The 8 winners are still going to be among the best dozen or so knights.

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6 hours ago, Syl of Syl said:

I always assumed his long term goal is actually to marry Sansa himself. Either that or he sees her as his daughter. He went to great trouble to get her out, and not just because she's a good game piece. He's obviously always been infatuated by Catelyn and Sansa has her looks. Plus, now he's had some time and will continue to instill his mind in her. 

It is definetly a question if he likes Sansa enough to throw his game or not. He probably new or even helped with the Red Wedding where Caitlyn is killed. And he might not even be into younger women. 

Thanks for your input on the game. 

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15 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Try to stay in what you believe to be Littlefingers character.

Petyr Baelish is the best entrepreneur in Westeros.  He's right up there with Illyrio Mopatis and Hizdahr zo Loraq in business skills.  He's speculating on the price of grain.  Winter will cause the price of grain to rise.  Famine makes people desperate though and it is critical for him to have the ability to protect his grain from being taken by force.  Those who cannot pay will have to borrow.  He's using economics to gain power like he has always done.  He didn't reveal all of his plans to Allayne.  He doesn't want to serve a queen.  He wants to rule the kingdom.  Allayne cannot give him that.  She is just one step on his ladder to the top.  Look at his history for proof.  The Lannisters gave him status and the lordship of Harrenhal.  Those are high honors.  Anybody else would have been content.  But not Petyr.  Oh no, he wants to reach the top.  Marrying Sansa to Harry will bring her a little power but it is not even close to what he needs to take the throne.  It puts her higher up on the ladder but that won't bring him closer to the throne.  She's just another step in his ladder and I will bet she's not the top step on that ladder. 

15 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Let say you are Littlefinger in the situation that is latest known to us.
You have this information or will have fairly soon:
- Stannis victory over Wildings in the North.
- Ironborn invasion of Shield Islands.
- Aegons invasion of Stormlands.
- Situation in Kingslanding (Kevans death, Mace new Regent, Faith trials...).
- Death of Lord Commander Jon Snow.
- Daenerys is in Dothratki sea (Penny being LF agent).

Petyr thrives on disorder.  All of these things help him because they weaken the establishment and he is anti-establishment.  He has to destroy the High Lords in order to have a shot at the throne.  Jon's death doesn't affect him because everybody knows it's a crime for the NW to interfere.  No commander has ever broken that sacred law.  Daenerys announced her intentions to stay and rule Meereen.  She disappeared on the back of her dragon.  Petyr is not affected.  She might even make a good ally if he needs to take down a stubborn high lord in the future.  "Your Grace, I destroyed the stags and their dogs.  I did you a favor.  How about we finish off the squids and the wolves."

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1 hour ago, Allardyce said:

Petyr thrives on disorder.

Right up until the time for that is done.

When the time for healing and rebuilding has come, that's when Littlefinger abandons chaos and chooses one of the pretenders to the crown, brings the Vale in on their side, and decides the fate of Westeros.   The trick is to be the tipping point.   For that, you must ensure the remaining armies are evenly matched.  Sabotage some of them if necessary.  So that all parties know the Vale will cast the deciding vote.  So they all start making bigger and bigger offers in a bidding war.   

That's how I see a queen sansa sitch developing.   She controls the Arryn, the North will come back into the fold once Lann is deposed and they have a Wolf waving to them from KL, the Riverlands will cheer for a Tully daughter and will have seen Vale forces smashing Freytown with Pete legitimately raging at what befell Catelyn.  If the south is divided evenly between two competitors, adding all of this to one of them tips the scales.   Harry the Heir is a benippled breastplate.    Arianne Martell is the Mean Girls blonde who ended up with the caste on her neck.   This Pete thing is going back to the capital, not to winterfell.

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