Mel wrote the Pink Letter to stop Jon from going to Hardhome

[The Map Guy]

12 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

As bad as the mission to Hardhome was, the planned attack on the Bolton’s is off the scale bad.  Even Mel would not condone such an act.  But maybe she didn’t count on Snow Flake being so reckless.

Jon Snow is terribly stupid. Even GRRM admits that kids shouldn't look up to Jon Snow as a role model.

The smart thing to do after receiving the Pink Letter is FIND HIS SISTER! Not go picking a fight.

It is Brandon Stark at King's Landing all over again. Brandon should of said "WHERE IS MY SISTER??" instead of "RHAEGAR!! COME OUT & DIE!!!"

4 hours ago, redriver said:

How does Mel know about Reek?A Stannis letter?Saw him in her flames?

It was in the OP, it was assumed that Stannis sent a raven to Mel informing Arya is on her way to Castle Black. The second assumption is that Stannis, Mel & Jon confused "Reek" as the nickname of Arya. He wants his bride back. He wants his Reek. As readers, we know who Reek is. But not Stannis, Mel & Jon. They should question who "Reek" is, but they never did. They assumed Reek = bride.

And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."
Theon Greyjoy smiled. They know my name, HE THOUGHT. {Theon I TWOW}

4 hours ago, redriver said:

How do the raven logistics work out?Does she steal one herself?

Like I said, it is assumed that a raven was sent to Mel from Stannis. Re-read the excerpt above. Once the raven reaches Mel, she can re-use that same raven to Clydas some how. Either with her henchmen Devan, or a ruby glamour trick thingy.
 

4 hours ago, redriver said:

Does she have an accomplice in this?

Yes, Devan. See Post#16. 

4 hours ago, redriver said:

What if she chose the wrong raven and it flew to Dorne?

There would be a confused Sand in Dorne, claiming he/she never even been to the North before.

4 hours ago, redriver said:

Did she wander off down the Kings road herself and set it free?

No, she has Devan. And he only needs to drop off the raven at Clydas' without the old man noticing it.

4 hours ago, redriver said:

Are you saying that dry parchment/paper that has been tightly rolled up immediately flattens and stays flattened after unrolling?

dry parchment/paper that has been tightly rolled up recently, and then flattens by human hands stays flattened after unrolling

[Seams]

On 5/21/2019 at 2:06 PM, The Map Guy said:

By the time they returned to the surface, the shadows of the afternoon were growing long. Clouds streaked the sky like tattered banners, grey and white and torn. The yard outside the armory was empty, but inside Jon found the king's squire awaiting him. Devan was a skinny lad of some twelve years, brown of hair and eye. They found him frozen by the forge, hardly daring to move as Ghost sniffed him up and down. "He won't hurt you," Jon said, but the boy flinched at the sound of his voice, and that sudden motion made the direwolf bare his teeth. "No!" Jon said. "Ghost, leave him be. Away." The wolf slunk back to his ox bone, silence on four feet.
Devan looked as pale as Ghost, his face damp with perspiration. "M-my lord. His Grace c-commands your presence." The boy was clad in Baratheon gold and black, with the flaming heart of a queen's man sewn above his own.

I was going back to look for something else, but this Devan passage struck me in a new way all of a sudden. This may be related to the idea of Mel being behind the pink letter, so I'll throw it into this thread.

Think about the Wizard of Oz movie. Can you see the Oz character to which Devan is compared here? The tin man, right? Not only is he frozen (the tin man was rusted and needed oil), but he has someone else's heart sewn onto his chest, similar to the clockwork heart eventually given by the wizard to the tin man. I guess that makes the direwolf into Toto, Dorothy's Cairn terrier (which I LOVE because I love Cairns).

What does this have to do with Melisandre writing the pink letter? I think Melisandre is the Wizard of Oz character in Jon's story arc. In the movie, Dorothy sought the Wizard because she had been told that he could help her return to Kansas. In Dany's arc, Hizdahr Zo Lorac is the wizard. (Notice how GRRM cleverly hides the name within the name - Hizdahr / Wizard, Zo / Oz. Don't know what the Lorac represents in terms of Wizard references, if any.) Dany gets on Drogon's back and becomes a dragonrider at the fighting pits, which are decorated in rainbow colors. In other words, "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" is her goal - flying, getting home, returning to her rightful throne - involve going over that particular rainbow.

There is a tension between the faith of the seven, with rainbows as a central symbol of the faith, and R'hllor, with night fires casting shadows. Catelyn, a devout follower of the Seven, is associated with rainbows. Melisandre is a destroyer of rainbows and she is associated with shadows. (It's a long story, but I wrote a post here.)

So Jon is about to fly over the rainbow, in a different way, trying to get home, to break his oath. So is Melisandre the author of the letter, indirectly encouraging Jon to go to Winterfell, or is she breaking that rainbow, preventing Jon from making the trip? I may have more to add later, but gotta go for now.

[The Map Guy]

1 hour ago, Seams said:

Don't know what the Lorac represents in terms of Wizard references, if any.)

Nice Wizard of Oz wordplay ... maybe "Lorac" is "Carol", an actress in the original movie or in a re-make. Seems to be GRRM's name-wordplay formula.

1 hour ago, Seams said:

In other words, "Somewhere Over the Rainbow" is her goal - flying, getting home, returning to her rightful throne - involve going over that particular rainbow.

I don't think you need a rainbow to be on Team Mel - Mel wants Jon to claim Winterfell lol ... it is what it is.

[The Map Guy]

Anyways The Paper Theory is confirmed intentional. Just came to my head ... paper shield.

GRRM was heavily involved in Season 1 of GoT and writing ADWD about the same time.

Here are some Season 1 clips to confirm the Paper Curl Theory ... show spoiler tags on:

Spoiler

 

 

2:15 mark - Ned has a freshly written letter that was written locally ... unrolled and flatten

 

So many clues here. The dialogue, the intentional solo shot on Theon at the 0:13 mark, and all them messenger ravens flying in the end.

The Paper Curl Theory is intentional!

 

 

[redriver]

Frankly paper curl theory is a load of bollocks.

But I still think you've done enough to put team Mel in the competition,though IMO somewhere near the bottom of the league.

Top for me is team Mance,second is team Stannis with assistance from Mance.

Neither Mel nor Devan were present when Mance threatened to have Jon's heart cut out.Every aspect of the letter was either spoken or directly observed by him,including many of the examples you cited up thread in Mel's case.

He's the only character with all the knowledge to pen the letter as soon as Theon/fArya jump.He wants Jon in Winterfell because he knows the Others and to defeat the Others there must always be  Stark in Winterfell.

[Nevets]

On 5/21/2019 at 12:06 PM, The Map Guy said:

Mel's plan was to have Jon come to her with the Pink Letter. Then Mel says its a fake since she received a letter from Stannis informing them that Winterfell was successfully taken and Arya Stark is on her way to Castle Black. Like my first assumption, Mel does have an authentic letter from Stannis. After Mel & Jon review the Pink Letter and all the discrepancies, they come to a conclusion that the Pink Letter is fake and written by one the Night's Watch brothers ... who dislike Jon and the Queen's people.

Now since Arya is on her way up, Jon stays at Castle Black to wait for her AND investigate into the NW traitors ... the "daggers in the dark."

Jon doesn't go to Hardhome anymore.

Jon: "You were right about your fire visions my lady ... my sister, the daggers in the dark ... I will come to you when I need help"
Mel: "I thought you knew nothing Lord Snow, but I was wrong."
Jon's thoughts: At last! I do know something!
Mel's thoughts: Haha sucker!

If the Pink Letter is proven to be a fake - and the OP only mentions Stannis sending it from Crofters Village - there is another logical suspect for Jon other than NW men.  That is Melisandre herself.  He doesn't trust her, so could suspect her of faking the letter just as easily as he could the NW.  And if that happens, he might suspect she faked the Stannis letter, too.

This theory seems excessively risky and convoluted.  Much easier to show Jon the letter to convince Jon to stay.  In the meantime, she can continue to work on him to keep him away from Hardhome help him identify his enemies in the NW.

[The Lord of the Crossing]

Mellissandre is not adept with bird messengers.  How could she accomplish this trick without the aid of the maester.  I don't think anybody would cooperate.  She might even be glad to get rid of Tormund and the wildlings.  That is less people to have to share the supplies with.  

[The Map Guy]

On 5/24/2019 at 2:41 PM, redriver said:

Frankly paper curl theory is a load of bollocks.

Why? Because it discredits Team Ramsay, Team Mance and Team Stannis immediately?

On 5/24/2019 at 2:41 PM, redriver said:

Top for me is team Mance,second is team Stannis with assistance from Mance.

Neither Mel nor Devan were present when Mance threatened to have Jon's heart cut out.Every aspect of the letter was either spoken or directly observed by him,including many of the examples you cited up thread in Mel's case.

He's the only character with all the knowledge to pen the letter as soon as Theon/fArya jump.He wants Jon in Winterfell because he knows the Others and to defeat the Others there must always be  Stark in Winterfell.

But for Team Mance:

"[...] "I could visit you as easily, my lord. Those guards at your door are a bad jape. A man who has climbed the Wall half a hundred times can climb in a window easy enough. But what good would come of killing you? The crows would only choose someone worse." He (f-Rattleshirt/Mance) chewed, swallowed. "I heard about your rangers. You should have sent me with them."

[...]

"Our false king [Mance] has a prickly manner," Melisandre told Jon Snow, "but he will not betray you. We hold his son, remember. And he owes you his very life."

{Melisandre I ADWD, with Mance in the room}

Mance knows what happens when a NW brother breaks their vows, why bait Jon to break them? Just to be a Stark in Winterfell? He would risk Jon's life, including the life of his son for this? This answer would be an assumption for Team Mance.

 

Same case for Team Stannis:

Melisandre took that as a sign and dismissed her own guard as well. They crossed the yard together, just the two of them. The snow fell all around them. She walked as close to Jon Snow as she dared, close enough to feel the mistrust pouring off him like a black fog. He does not love me, will never love me, but he will make use of me. Well and good. Melisandre had danced the same dance with Stannis Baratheon, back in the beginning. In truth, the young lord commander and her king had more in common than either one would ever be willing to admit. Stannis had been a younger son living in the shadow of his elder brother, just as Jon Snow, bastard-born, had always been eclipsed by his trueborn sibling, the fallen hero men had called the Young Wolf. Both men were unbelievers by nature, mistrustful, suspicious. The only gods they truly worshiped were honor and duty.

{Melisandre I ADWD}

Stannis worships the gods of honor and duty. If Jon is an ally, why does Stannis break character to deceive him? This answer would be an assumption for Team Stannis.

 

Team Mel - Stopping Jon from going to Hardhome has a simple motive, with two or three assumptions, but assumptions that are supported in the text.

The assumptions listed above for Team Mance and Team Stance are assumptions that contradicts the text.

Anyways, we'll see in TWOW. May the best Team that gets Jon killed wins!

 

On 5/24/2019 at 5:32 PM, Nevets said:

This theory seems excessively risky and convoluted.  Much easier to show Jon the letter to convince Jon to stay.

Don't under-estimate the the craziness of needy, attention-seeking people after they get rejected.

Mel: "Winter is almost upon us now. I am your only hope."

Jon: "A fool's hope." Jon turned and left her.

{Jon XIII ADWD}

 

On 5/25/2019 at 5:02 AM, The Lord of the Crossing said:

Mellissandre is not adept with bird messengers.  How could she accomplish this trick without the aid of the maester.

It's splitting hairs here. Minor details like this won't matter. My theory is not 100% perfect. But so are all the other Teams.

And I mentioned it in Post#16, Mel is using Devan as a spy. Perhaps Devan sneaked into Clydas' room, stole the original Stannis-parchment and gave it to Mel. Mel read it and wrote a new fresh dry parchment, rolled it up, and Devan went back to Clydas to drop it off ... while the old man was doing something else.

Do I have any evidence for this? No. But since everyone else is making up stories for the Pink Letter, I think I am allowed one too.

And GRRM does give us these lines:

He was walking beneath the shell of the Lord Commander's Tower, past the spot where Ygritte had died in his arms, when Ghost appeared beside him, his warm breath steaming in the cold. In the moonlight, his red eyes glowed like pools of fire. The taste of hot blood filled Jon's mouth, and he knew that Ghost had killed that night. No, he thought. I am a man, not a wolf. He rubbed his mouth with the back of a gloved hand and spat.
Clydas still occupied the rooms beneath the rookery. At Jon's knock, he came shuffling, a taper in his hand, to open the door a crack. "Do I intrude?" asked Jon.
"Not at all." Clydas opened the door wider. "I was mulling wine. Will my lord take a cup?"
"With pleasure." His hands were stiff from cold. He pulled off his gloves and flexed his fingers.
Clydas returned to the hearth to stir the wine. He's sixty if he's a day. An old man. He only seemed young compared with Aemon. Short and round, he had the dim pink eyes of some nocturnal creature. A few white hairs clung to his scalp. When Clydas poured, Jon held the cup with both hands, sniffed the spices, swallowed. The warmth spread through his chest. He drank again, long and deep, to wash the taste of blood from his mouth.
{Jon III ADWD}

Maybe these lines are foreshadow/double-meaning for Devan sneaking into Clydas' room and smuggling in/out the parchment. Maybe they are not.

• ... he came shuffling, a taper in his hand, to open the door a crack. "Do I intrude?" asked Jon. INTRUDER ALERT! INTRUDER ALERT! INTRUDER ALERT!
• I was mulling wine. Was Clydas mulling wine or drunk off his ass when Devan sneaked in? ... no situational awareness?
• He's sixty if he's a day. An old man [...] dim pink eyes of some nocturnal creature. Does Clydas have trouble seeing far?
• He pulled off his gloves and flexed his fingers. When you snatch a parchment off a table, your fingers would need to flex.
• Devan was quick and smart and able too ... {Melisandre I ADWD} Mel's thought of Devan, son of the smuggler Ser Davos Seaworth