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Free Northman Reborn

Master thread on what the Show means for the book plot

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25 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Aegon will be in Cersei’s role - meaning in possession of King’s Landing with the Golden Company, but dragonless.

The Dragonhorn plotline will be rather pointless if Euron does not get a dragon as a result of it, so I expect he will get one.

Agreed.

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1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Aegon will be in Cersei’s role - meaning in possession of King’s Landing with the Golden Company, but dragonless.

I've not much faith in the show telling. But if fAegon will be the one contesting Daenerys' heirloom, she will still find Cersei entrenched in KL. This part seemed right to me.

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Oh, man. We're all going to be dissecting this for years. So many possibilities!

To kick things off, yes, I do believe Bran will be the king at the end of the series. Authors love their poetic flair, and Bran, having had the first chapter of the series, will likely also have the last. (Oddly enough, I thought Bran would be king for several seasons, until he became robotic, and then I started to change my mind. I guess I should have just stuck with my gut). There's also Luwin saying that Bran is Ned Stark's "true son," and ACOK's display of Bran's emotional maturity, in spite of his age. Fire & Blood also gave us the precedent of a Great Council.

I think Arya will go off on an adventure, but I think it will be framed similarly to Frodo's departure at the end of Return of the King. Arya will feel like there's no coming back from her trauma, and her years of violence, preventing her from staying with her family in Westeros.

I actually think that the North and Iron Islands being independent makes sense from a cultural standpoint. Neither region follows the Faith of the Seven, and they never fully assimilated with the rest of Westeros. Whether as a queen or a lady, I find it likely that Sansa will preside over Winterfell.

D&D clearly love Dany, so I don't think that they would have her burn the city and then be killed by Jon if it wasn't part of George's outline. As horrifying as it is to consider, I think it's very possible that Dany will also be pregnant at the time, given how much that was foreshadowed last season. I'm guessing they decided to do away with the pregnancy plot in order to make Jon more sympathetic on the show. 

Cersei's taken on the role of Aegon, who I think will be in King's Landing at the time of Dany's attack, so I doubt Cersei will still be around by then. The impression I got when Dany burned the people of King's Landing was that she was punishing them for not loving her, and I think that could make a lot of sense in the books. The people will have embraced the mummer's dragon, Aegon, and Dany won't be able to handle Westeros not living up to her expectations. She doesn't feel at home anywhere, and that takes a huge toll on her mental health.

The blandness of Brienne's plot in seasons 6 and 7, along with the fanservice of season 8 (getting knighted, sleeping with Jaime, becoming Lord Commander) makes me think that she'll die in TWOW. I think it's likely that Jaime will outlive both Brienne and Cersei, but I don't think he'll be the valonqar, since I don't think George will have two main characters kill their "mad queen" lovers.

I definitely think that the Dornish--Arianne, Doran, the Sand Snakes--are all doomed. Theon and his uncles are also doomed, and Asha will sit the Seastone Chair.

I admit that I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen with the Others. 

I love the idea of Drogon living and flying off into the great unknown. It leaves open the possibility that magic still exists in the world, even if we don't get to see it. I'm not sure what the trajectory for Viserion and Rhaegal will be. I find it likely that they will have various riders, but will both die in ADOS.

I'm curious to see how Val factors into Jon's story going forward.

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On 5/20/2019 at 5:31 PM, Free Northman Reborn said:

Can we have a definitive thread to discuss the implications of the Show for the future book plot.

Which parts are true and which are nonsense? I have my thoughts. Let's discuss.

So let's start with the Iron Throne.  I don't think Bran becomes King. I cannot see any path to him being elected King by the other Great Lords. There will be a Great Council, but like always politics will win the day, and the faction with the most support will choose the King. Just like Jon's election as Lord Commander back in Book 3. 

 

Eh, an aliens gestalt Intelligence taking over the body of a powerful human telepath and using his a abilities to take over the human race via manipulation is a very GRRM ending. It was not presented well here, because it was neither obvious that the Three Eyed Raven (for clarity, I won't be calling him Bran) was in fact manipulating the events which led to his election (he clearly was, but it wasn't obvious to the average viewer, hence the failure) nor was it unambiguous that the Three Eyed Raven was not Bran (though they did beat us over the head with this one, so I'm not sure why people are confused, but clearly they could have made it more obvious somehow.

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10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As seminal as the previous Long Night and Aegon’s Conquest. In fact, I would argue this moment in history combines and resolves both those initiating events, and will effectively end the legacy of both - ending the Others and Aegon’s dynasty.

Well, sure.  Reverting back to their original states is a plausible ending - and that would indeed be a seminal moment rather than "just a snapshot," which is what I was disagreeing with there.  I will not argue that's a strong possibility, I just think it's kind of lame.  As someone who studies institutions for a living, very rarely do you see those that are well-established simply be abandoned in such a way.  There are ebbs and flows of course, but most work off of their "progress" - if you want to call it that - in one way or another to feed into something bigger.  I suppose the counter-example to that would be the Balkans, but I don't think that's what Martin's going for.

5 hours ago, divica said:

In adition, if I am not mistaken the pope was only the leader of rome and the other city states had their own rullers.

The pope also controlled the papal states for a very considerable period.

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3 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

Cersei's taken on the role of Aegon, who I think will be in King's Landing at the time of Dany's attack, so I doubt Cersei will still be around by then. The impression I got when Dany burned the people of King's Landing was that she was punishing them for not loving her, and I think that could make a lot of sense in the books. The people will have embraced the mummer's dragon, Aegon, and Dany won't be able to handle Westeros not living up to her expectations. She doesn't feel at home anywhere, and that takes a huge toll on her mental health.

Could well be. I don't think its an impossibility. But I think that after Tommen departs the Iron Throne no man will sit on it until "Bran", which can be argued if its a "he" or an "it" I suppose, takes it.

But anyway I think that Cersei will indeed make it to the last and be the one to burn in King's Landing. What I think about Aegon's plotline is that he will march into the Reach next to gather various allies, like the Hightowers and probably the Tarlys (I think that Tarly will do to the Tyrells what Bolton did to Stark, they've both got a red man on their coat of arms and I think that means something) before he turns towards the capital, and is destroyed by Danaerys. Instead of the Lannister army with the food getting destroyed, it will be Aegon that has his dreams shattered by dragon fire.

I could of course be wrong and the presence of the Golden Company at King's Landing in the end hints that its Aegon who holds the city, yet somehow I think that Cersei will make it to the end, and she will never give up the throne or capital while there's life in her.

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I initially believed that Aegon would beat Cersei, but, Cersei and Euron teaming up does seem sort of a natural alliance, so I wonder if she doesn't beat her opponents or at least stay alive beyond the end of Winds.  

I don't really think the Pope is much of a parallel to Bran since the people electing him have not also given up their hereditary rights and we're not talking about an religiously derived authority for Bran since most of Westeros is of a different religion than he is.  

 

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Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Jon Mark Selmy said:

It is and it ain't. If you go by the show (and I believe the book ending will follow the same broad strokes) you will see that from now on the king will be chosen by an election and that one of the most culturaly diverse areas of the realm is now independent. Also, a new culture has been integrated to Westeros (dothraki), a woman has notoriously became a knight, and so on and so forth. All those things stablish precedents for further democratization, further secession, and further social advancements.

The Dothraki are not new to Westeros, we have seen Dothraki sellswords in Westeros from the beginning of the series. You may be overestimating how of little importance a thousand or so Dothraki will have on a population of 40 million. If they remain they are going to be quickly assimilated. That is not enough for a new 'culture'.

Brienne is not the first female warrior in Westeros. Queen Alysanne had her own Queensguard who protected her, that Queensguard member fought against one of Manderly's household warriors, a female Wildling.

There have been female warriors before Brienne and after Brienne, it seems unlikely that their society is going to leap huge strides in terms of progression where the year 303 (or whichever is the year the series ends) that it will be socially acceptable for women to do so.

An elective monarchy is also not new to Westeros. The Ironborn practice it, no one in the South is in awe of this practice, they are not going to look at Euron being elected as the king of the Ironislands and think that's the way to go.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Bernie Mac

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22 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

An elective monarchy is also not new to Westeros. The Ironborn practice it, no one in the South is in awe of this practice, they are not going to look at Euron being elected as the king of the Ironislands and think that's the way to go.

:laugh:

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, DMC said:

Strongly disagree there.  This is undoubtedly a seminal moment in Westerosi history.  If it wasn't why would Martin stage the conflict during such an era?  It makes more sense that things will change in the denouement than if things didn't.

Unless GRRM is planning more books detailing the future then that is an impossible call to make. Regardless of who ends up on the Throne we the reader will have no idea how seminal it is.

 

22 hours ago, Nevets said:

Some might consider that a feature, not a bug,

Some might, but GRRM's based these people on our own middle ages. Creating heirs was the single most important part of the job for a ruler, pushing out those heirs as quickly as possible is just a part of their mindset. Fertility is very important.

I'm not sure how the events of this series are going to suggest that the Ironborn's elective process is a better scenario. Maybe Euron will be hugely admired by the end of the series and they will want another leader elected but I have my doubts.

And if they did suddenly think of this as a feature how would this possibly work in future? Would noble Houses start castrating evert other son to have them be in with a chance to be King?

 

Quote

 

especially if they are not interested in a dynastic monarchy, but something closer to a Republic.  It means they don't have to worry about any children making a claim

How did that work out for the Ironborn? The children of elected kings still make a claim, often the Kings will be the ones who make make sure their chosen heirs have the support of the majority.

Monarchies advanced from the Witenaġemot, elective monarchies are a step back, not a step forward.

Quote

Neither does anybody else.  The Targaryens are dead, as well as all the Baratheons.   At least the legitimate ones, anyway.  The Starks happen to be one of the most respected houses left.

In the books they are no more respected than the likes of the Arryns, Martells, Hightowers, Lannisters etc. But there are Houses with distant claims to the Throne such as the Martells, Tarths and likely many others.

However the idea that the North gets to go independent and the South still appoint an underage, impotent, cripple from House Stark beggars belief.

 

Quote

He was brought up in both faiths.  Even if he currently worships the Old Gods,, I don't know that that is inconsistent with anointment by the Faith.

The Faith has a problem with Stannis, who was brought up with the Seven because of his connection with the Red God. Why would they accept Bran? The King worshipping another God is not good for the Faith, it causes their flock to diminish or to be angry with the Faith for supporting such a man of a different Faith.

There is a reason that Aegon and his heirs adopted the Faith, even with Dragons, they realized it was easier that way.

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He had a pretty decent education at Winterfell before that from Maester Luwin, which puts him well above that vast majority of the population.  

He has a better education than the majority of the population, he has a lesser education than many of the nobility.

The Lords of the Realm are not overly concerned with an education from a Maester, they are concerned with their educations in warfare. Being able to lead men, to inspire it.

To the readers of the book a man like Robert is an oaf, but he is far, far closer to the ideal than Bran or Sam.

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I tend to think that he is chosen because he is a compromise choice that they think will be a weak leader who can be controlled.  In which case, his weaknesses might be considered advantages, or at least serious debits.

Lords don't want this. Not after the regent wars of Aegon III. It's why Egg was appointed over his nephew and niece. Being easily controlled is bad in this society for the majority because others may use the monarch as their puppet.

Quote

Considering how little interest the showrunners showed in Bran, I cannot imagine that they made him the end-game leader unless that is what GRRM told them was going to happen.

I can. Its a twist and the show long abandoned character development for shock. If it gets people talking they'd include it.

Do you think Bronn inheriting the Reach is also down to GRRM?

Edited by Bernie Mac

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

I initially believed that Aegon would beat Cersei, but, Cersei and Euron teaming up does seem sort of a natural alliance, so I wonder if she doesn't beat her opponents or at least stay alive beyond the end of Winds.  

Why does this seem natural?

Cersei isn t an atractive prospect for euron… First all her children must die before she becomes interesting. Then if she looses the aliance with the tyrells she will only have a depleated army. Next problem is that nobody will accept euron and cersei in the books. If we already think cersei is doomed then if we add euron the smallfolk and the faith will never accept them. Then Euron seems to want more than material power in his wife… He wants magic!

Honestly, the only way I see euron on the IT is if he is a skinchanger and steals faegons body. Nobody will ever support euron as king for a long time… 

And another thing to take into account is that euron won t be cersei's errand boy as he is in the series… I don t see how cersei can help euron achieve any of his objectives… we don t even know if she can still have kids...

 

edit: I don t even know how loyal the lannister army will be to cersei if she loses KL (and even if she keeps it I think there will be problems, bringing euron into the equation will only make things worse).

 

Edited by divica

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1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

Unless GRRM is planning more books detailing the future then that is an impossible call to make. Regardless of who ends up on the Throne we the reader will have no idea how seminal it is.

 

Some might, but GRRM's based these people on our own middle ages. Creating heirs was the single most important part of the job for a ruler, pushing out those heirs as quickly as possible is just a part of their mindset. Fertility is very important.

I'm not sure how the events of this series are going to suggest that the Ironborn's elective process is a better scenario. Maybe Euron will be hugely admired by the end of the series and they will want another leader elected but I have my doubts.

And if they did suddenly think of this as a feature how would this possibly work in future? Would noble Houses start castrating evert other son to have them be in with a chance to be King?

 

How did that work out for the Ironborn? The children of elected kings still make a claim, often the Kings will be the ones who make make sure their chosen heirs have the support of the majority.

Monarchies advanced from the Witenaġemot, elective monarchies are a step back, not a step forward.

In the books they are no more respected than the likes of the Arryns, Martells, Hightowers, Lannisters etc. But there are Houses with distant claims to the Throne such as the Martells, Tarths and likely many others.

However the idea that the North gets to go independent and the South still appoint an underage, impotent, cripple from House Stark beggars belief.

 

The Faith has a problem with Stannis, who was brought up with the Seven because of his connection with the Red God. Why would they accept Bran? The King worshipping another God is not good for the Faith, it causes their flock to diminish or to be angry with the Faith for supporting such a man of a different Faith.

There is a reason that Aegon and his heirs adopted the Faith, even with Dragons, they realized it was easier that way.

He has a better education than the majority of the population, he has a lesser education than many of the nobility.

The Lords of the Realm are not overly concerned with an education from a Maester, they are concerned with their educations in warfare. Being able to lead men, to inspire it.

To the readers of the book a man like Robert is an oaf, but he is far, far closer to the ideal than Bran or Sam.

Lords don't want this. Not after the regent wars of Aegon III. It's why Egg was appointed over his nephew and niece. Being easily controlled is bad in this society for the majority because others may use the monarch as their puppet.

I can. Its a twist and the show long abandoned character development for shock. If it gets people talking they'd include it.

Do you think Bronn inheriting the Reach is also down to GRRM?

If not Bran, then who?  I agree that Bran is a lousy choice.  I also think that he may be the best of a bad lot, at least of major characters.  And it will be a major character.  It's apparently not Jon, because if it was, I can just about guarantee that that would be the ending on the show, too.

As for Bronn taking the Reach, that's probably because they wiped out the Tyrells earlier in the show.  In the books, there's a lot more of them, so I think they will still be around at the end.  

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1 minute ago, Nevets said:

If not Bran, then who?  I agree that Bran is a lousy choice.  I also think that he may be the best of a bad lot, at least of major characters. 

Depends who is still left alive at the end of the series.

Sansa is a better choice, she's healthy, presumably fertile and if she marries another noble from a major House we have a repeat of the end of the War of the Roses were a union between Lancaster and Stark ended the war.

Sansa may be the Westerosi Elizabeth of York and Edric Storm (with both a Baratheon and distant Targaryen claim) may be its Henry Tudor.

Alternatively Arianne and Aegon may be Westeros' Elizabeth and Henry if they go that route.

But with two books to go its impossible to say which nobles will still be alive and which Houses will have clout.

By the end of the show the Reach had 'no one left in it' while the North kept on re-spawning their armies. This is not going to happen in the books, there are going to be many Houses at the end, not just the Starks and their closest allies.

 

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

 

And it will be a major character.

I have my doubts. The story is not about who wins the Throne. It might be a character who has largely been unimportant, it might be a character who only rises in prominence in the last book or two.

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

It's apparently not Jon, because if it was, I can just about guarantee that that would be the ending on the show, too.

The last two seasons of the show were less about development and more about twist. Jon and/or Dany were expected to win the throne. Bran was such an outsider that Brienne suggested it as the show was about shock and Nikolaj Coster-Waldau correctly pointed out it made zero sense.

1 minute ago, Nevets said:

As for Bronn taking the Reach, that's probably because they wiped out the Tyrells earlier in the show.  In the books, there's a lot more of them, so I think they will still be around at the end.  

As will many nobles, many better options than Bran, the cripple, impotent Northern child.

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19 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

I have my doubts. The story is not about who wins the Throne. It might be a character who has largely been unimportant, it might be a character who only rises in prominence in the last book or two.

Honestly, these last books have been so focused about how some characters rule and the lessons they need to learn that who ends up in the throne should be someone we have seen become a ruler.

Otherwise it will make dance and feast 2 stupid books… 

At present moment only danny or jon (ignoring cersei and euron) would be satisfying. With winds we might add faegon to the list… To me sansa seems to be leading to a behind the scenes leader like LF but I could be wrong. I have no idea how we will have a ruling arcs for other characters...

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Continually referring to Bran as "crippled and impotent" is exactly the kind of abusive bigotry that Martin has sought to overturn throughout his work by raising cripples, bastards, and broken things.

Think back to that big scene in Dragonstone when the only participant sporting a functional set of block and table was our favorite dwarf? Tells you something.

One gets tired of hearing people continuously put down with hate speech. It says far more about the speaker's regressive bigotry than it does about the Summer King himself. 

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1 hour ago, CrypticWeirwood said:

Continually referring to Bran as "crippled and impotent" is exactly the kind of abusive bigotry that Martin has sought to overturn throughout his work by raising cripples, bastards, and broken things.

eh? He is crippled and he is impotent and he lives in a time when their society was heavily prejudiced against such disabilities. Thankfully we live in far more enlightened time, but the people in the books don't and there is zero indication that these people are going to turn around at the end of the series and suddenly be okay with being ruled by such a person.

 

1 hour ago, CrypticWeirwood said:

Think back to that big scene in Dragonstone when the only participant sporting a functional set of block and table was our favorite dwarf? Tells you something.

I really don't understand what you mean here? This topic is about what the show means for the book.

1 hour ago, CrypticWeirwood said:

One gets tired of hearing people continuously put down with hate speech. It says far more about the speaker's regressive bigotry than it does about the Summer King himself. 

lol I'm now a bigot for stating the a disability of a fictional character?  Whatever makes you feel better about yourself.

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I think it will be Jon. For a limited amount of time (maybe measured in years) until he voluntarily takes the Black. After that, the Throne is disbanded, which is effectively what the Show has done in a way, making it some kind of weird elected position which may end after Bran dies in any case.

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I honestly think we have to wait for TWoW to even try to guess how things are going to go down.

I mean, we have no idea what Cersei/Jaime are going to do in the books. If Cersei's plot is mostly derived from Aegon's plot then what the hell is Cersei's plot going to be in the books? We have no idea.

Are Cersei/Euron going to hook up in the books? I think so, in fact that was my idea for a very long time, but what is that going to accomplish? What will they do? We have no idea.

The scenario at the ending makes no sense in any context (and I'm not talking about Dany being dead or Jon not becoming king, merely about the resolution in that nonsense 'council').

- Bran is going to stay in the cave - but even if he left he is not going to become 'king'. He is going to become a god among men, meaning that 'counting coppers' is not going to be something that's going to interest him.

- The North's independence makes only sense if at least the Iron Islands and Dorne get their independence, too - and if that was the case, why not everybody else, too? Especially if the Iron Throne - and thus the symbol of power and unity - was destroyed?

- Gendry is never going to become Lord of Storm's End. Edric Storm could, perhaps, if he returns into the story.

- Arya has no reason/motivation to become a sea captain sailing west. If she leaves Westeros in the end I could see going back to Braavos - a place she seems to grow fond of in AFfC.

- Sansa could end up with Winterfell, sure, but I see her more somewhere in the south (I still hope George is not going to kill Rickon).

- I don't see Tyrion surviving the series or ruling as Hand in the end. He is too dark a character, and he has to pay for too many black deeds. In fact, if there is a character I expect to snap and run amok it is Tyrion. He has severe issues with himself, his family, and - very likely in the future - with a Daenerys who is not going to love him the way he loves her. The guy is jealousy incarnate - remember how he reacted to Shae so much as talking to other men...

- I also have difficulty to see Jon surviving the Others thing. His return from the death will come at a price, and he will come back for a reason - and that reason won't be to become some mundane king.

- I also doubt that we'll get a mundane war/burning of KL as the grand finale in the books. They might have to resolve some minor issues to deal then, but I don't see a war of conquest there. Because whoever will defeat the Others will stand united against whoever failed to support them during this enterprise.

If Bran is not the king then I could see somebody who doesn't exist in the show to fill the role - a child of Aegon and Arianne, perhaps, or Aegon and Sansa (if she ended up marrying him, too), or the child of Dany and Jon (if they get a child). Could even be Aegon himself if he actually survives the series...

Since I don't buy for a moment that they will end up giving up the hereditary monarchy thing, I could actually see Edric Storm as the new king. He is the most eligible scion from the Targaryen-Baratheon branch, and if the Targaryens are all dead/unwilling/whatever then the Baratheons would be the next in line. 

I mean, you have to keep in mind that the final council nonsense in the show was completely dependent on the characters they (still) had in the show. Nonsense like Grand Maester Sam, Lord Bronn of Highgarden the Master of Coin, etc. are consequences of their writing decisions - they didn't really have other characters to fill such roles, so we got that travesty. George has a much greater ensemble of characters, many of which might be actually competent.

And how this Second Dance scenario is going to go is rather unclear anyway. It seems very likely that Aegon is going to topple the Lannisters in KL, but does this then mean Euron (and Cersei?) are going to topple Aegon in turn, causing Dany to mainly fight against these two later on? Because what we know right now makes it more likely that Euron will sit the Iron Throne than Aegon. But if Aegon never sits the throne he won't be much of threat to anyone. Without the symbol of Targaryen power the boy would be pretty much nothing. Or is Euron only going to seize the throne while everybody else fights the Others? We really have no idea.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

- Arya has no reason/motivation to become a sea captain sailing west. If she leaves Westeros in the end I could see going back to Braavos - a place she seems to grow fond of in AFfC.

I wonder about Arya.  We still have "When the spring thaw comes, they will find your body with a needle still locked tight between your frozen fingers."  And we know she's not going to kill the "night king" in the books.  Which makes one wonder what she is going to do, because I do expect her to do something of significance.  While I think Jaime will kill Cersei, I suppose she's still a candidate there. 

But if she does survive, what motivation doesn't she have to sail west?  Or rather, what motivation would she have to go back to Braavos, or to Essos in general?  I don't see how those are innately more likely options.  Sure, she liked hanging out in Braavos, but she's also an explorer at heart.

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