International Thread 3

[Martell Spy]

Will China Invade Hong Kong? Or Taiwan Instead?
Xi Jinping has no good options dealing with runaway Hong Kong. To compensate, he may put pressure on Taiwan.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/will-china-invade-hong-kong-or-taiwan-instead?ref=home

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Xi Jinping’s choices on Hong Kong are all atrocious, so the Chinese ruler could just enlarge the problem and cause an incident elsewhere. An audacious act would not be out of character for Xi.

For many, an invasion of Taiwan or some other belligerent act seems inconceivable, but the events of the last few weeks have been nothing short of extraordinary. Unfortunately, anything can happen now. 

Beijing made headlines on Wednesday when Wu Qian, a Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman, called last weekend’s protests in Hong Kong “absolutely intolerable” and suggested China might send in troops, pointing out that the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s “mini constitution,” allowed the Hong Kong government to request the assistance of the Chinese military. 

 

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And Beijing attempted to stir up emotions. 

That suggests Xi does have one other option. If he feels the situation in Hong Kong is no-win for him—and given the trend of events how could it not be?—the Chinese leader could cause mischief abroad in hopes of creating internal unity. He did, after all, have Wu, the military spokesman, make unprovoked threats against Taiwan on Wednesday. “If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese military would not hesitate to go to war,” he said (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-takes-aim-at-us-taiwan-in-new-military-blueprint/2019/07/24/38168b14-adbf-11e9-9411-a608f9d0c2d3_story.html?utm_term=.2aa761eb4dca).

Apparently someone in the Pentagon is worried. The USS Antietam, a Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser, sailed through the Taiwan Strait right after the provocative Chinese Defense Ministry pronouncements on Hong Kong and Taiwan. 

Everyone needs to be concerned about what Xi does next.

 

 

[Toth]

I'd be very surprised if China doesn't invade Hong Kong over the course of the next weeks. Xi is eager to rush up the dissolving of Hong Kong's special status and I'm sure this can be used as a pretext to do just that. It's not like Britain is any position to do more than faintly complain in the background.

The Taiwan thing, while troubling, isn't anything new. Threatening Taiwan is China's "Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam". I also don't see how that would solve the Hong Kong issue when the protesters see themselves as not belonging to the People's Republic if they open up another can of worms there.

[The Anti-Targ]

Can you "invade" part of your own country? Hong Kong might have a special status, but it's still part of China, and the civil unrest is an internal matter.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

“The Kremlin has a choice between bad and extremely bad options,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a former Kremlin speechwriter-turned-political consultant. “Not allowing opposition figures to run means triggering massive protests that will delegitimize the political system throughout the entire country. But if strong opposition candidates … are allowed to stand at the City Duma elections they will win, without doubt … and Putin’s political order will start to crumble.”

* * *

As of Monday morning, the majority of would-be opposition candidates remained behind bars. "The last illusion that we are able to participate legally in politics has disappeared,” said Dmitry Gudkov, another longtime Putin foe who has also been barred from the City Duma elections.

 

Moscow protests pose problem for Putin
Police crack down on pro-democracy activists ahead of September’s vote for the Moscow city assembly.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-moscow-strikes-protests-police-raids-pose-problem-for-president-vladimir-putin/

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

On 7/27/2019 at 8:46 AM, Toth said:

I'd be very surprised if China doesn't invade Hong Kong over the course of the next weeks. Xi is eager to rush up the dissolving of Hong Kong's special status and I'm sure this can be used as a pretext to do just that. It's not like Britain is any position to do more than faintly complain in the background.

The Taiwan thing, while troubling, isn't anything new. Threatening Taiwan is China's "Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam". I also don't see how that would solve the Hong Kong issue when the protesters see themselves as not belonging to the People's Republic if they open up another can of worms there.

Taiwan also has a strong military and is an island. China is definitely not able to just walk in there the way they can do with Hong Kong. Then there is the real possibility of a direct confrontation with the USA if they were to try. 

USA's traditional approach regarding this issue is one of strategic ambiguity, where strong support is expressed for Taiwan's right to be protected from aggression, but the US refuses to give a clear answer on whether they would interfere on their behalf in a war or not. This is done in order to discourage Taiwanese hardliners from needlessly provoking China, which they might if they felt safe that the US would cover their backs in any situation. Either way, invading Taiwan would be a very risky move for China. 

The situation in Hong Kong is completely different. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

This is disturbing as fuck.

https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-miners-kill-tribal-leader-183323837.html

Eta: Geezus even more terrible Brazilian news here- 

Prison riot in Brazil leaves 16 inmates decapitated and dozens more killed

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/29/americas/brazil-prison-riots-intl/index.html

And apparently this isn't an isolated incident as they had 55 prison riot killings earlier in 4 other facilities. This reminds me of the kind of conditions that were prevalent in S.American prisons during the height of the Escobar era.

[Varysblackfyre321]

7 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

This is disturbing as fuck.

https://news.yahoo.com/brazil-miners-kill-tribal-leader-183323837.html

Eta: Geezus even more terrible Brazilian news here- 

Prison riot in Brazil leaves 16 inmates decapitated and dozens more killed

https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/29/americas/brazil-prison-riots-intl/index.html

And apparently this isn't an isolated incident as they had 55 prison riot killings earlier in 4 other facilities. This reminds me of the kind of conditions that were prevalent in S.American prisons during the height of the Escobar era.

Bolsano’s response is as vile, and racist as one might expect:

https://news.yahoo.com/news/bolsonaro-says-no-strong-evidence-tribal-chief-murdered-164154837.html

Seriously, he couldn’t at the very least to try cozy up his speak and try not referencing the indigenous people of Brazil as Indians.

Not to say that’s the main problem of course. His response basically gives license for anyone to go out and kill indigenous people to help pave way for his attempts to steal the last drops of land they have left.

But, no  massive international outcry for this guy to step down given his propensity towards what could be seen as the first steps towards literal state-sanctioned genocide or his documented efforts to retain his power through patently undemocratic ways-i.e jailing his political opposition because they might defeat him in an election. 

Because, he’s an American/Western corporate  lackey, his crimes could be allowed to continue. 

He’s a necessary evil by virtue of him benefiting the US-well At least some entities in it.

If he was socialist and not a lap-dog to the US there’d be much more deserved condemnation.

Hell any suggestion of it not being ok for foreign entities being the ones to overthrow him, would be seen as literal support his heinous regime and there’d be whining of such talk showing a lack of care for humanity.

Quite honestly I can’t help but role my eyes at such accusations when it comes such conversations typically given it’s so obviously meant to simply silence dissent. 

The lack of vitriol directed towards Bolsonaro in comparison to some other regimes the US is trying to overthrow demonstrates how most talk of the US or powers in the West forcing a regime change for “humanitarian means” as hollow justifications for imperialism.

[Karneol]

On 7/27/2019 at 3:00 AM, Martell Spy said:

Will China Invade Hong Kong? Or Taiwan Instead?
Xi Jinping has no good options dealing with runaway Hong Kong. To compensate, he may put pressure on Taiwan.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/will-china-invade-hong-kong-or-taiwan-instead?ref=home

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Under "normal" circumstances I would have said they would get away with Hong Kong and Taiwan (but only under heavy sanctions or some dirty deal with the US)

But with Trump every choice could lead towards a US-China war. It's not a secret at all that Trump hates China and by refusing to attak he would lose much of his supporters.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Absolutely agree with all your points Varysblackfyre. The Brazilian government looks like it's okay with killing off the legal inhabitants of those lands in order to seize the natural resources. It's another chapter in a long history repeated over every continent. 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

15 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

The lack of vitriol directed towards Bolsonaro in comparison to some other regimes the US is trying to overthrow demonstrates how most talk of the US or powers in the West forcing a regime change for “humanitarian means” as hollow justifications for imperialism.

Is it still imperialism if the basis for whether you overlook the domestic atrocities of a regime is whether or not private corporations are able to profit from said regime? Seems it would be more apt to call it corporatism, since it more accurately conveys the true motivations for foreign policy decisions.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 7/30/2019 at 11:22 AM, DireWolfSpirit said:

Absolutely agree with all your points Varysblackfyre. The Brazilian government looks like it's okay with killing off the legal inhabitants of those lands in order to seize the natural resources. It's another chapter in a long history repeated over every continent. 

 

True. And people will openly mush on how/why it was so hard to see Bolsano was a monster and how he got power. And then proceed to give power to someone who speaks the same vein of bigotry Bolsano utilized. Having that person’s gross rhetoric concerning certain groups excused as being not serious(it’s just comedy bro x political figure doesn’t really think  non-white groups shouldn’t have political power in their own lands, x political figure is just saying that to start a conversation) or  politically incorrect but true(even if the statements made are false-especially if they’re  false). 

On 7/30/2019 at 9:25 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

Is it still imperialism if the basis for whether you overlook the domestic atrocities of a regime is whether or not private corporations are able to profit from said regime? Seems it would be more apt to call it corporatism, since it more accurately conveys the true motivations for foreign policy decisions.

Corporatism I find is more apt to call a frequent cause of imperialism. Imperialism is a tool corporations use to fill their pockets. And I think that’s a meaningful distinction to make. Think of British imperialism of countries in Africa, and Asia throughout the Industrial Age.  These countries where often rich with the resources that fueled the companies that where springing out.

[DireWolfSpirit]

Is the President of Honduras a Narco?

I believe in innocent until proven guilty, but this story definitely raises some ugly possibilities.

https://news.yahoo.com/honduran-president-accused-ny-drug-182515867.html

This coming on the heels of the Brazilian delegations airplane drug bust at the G-20 summit, smh.

 https://beta.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/06/27/cocaine-bust-looming-typhoon-add-more-drama-already-tense-g-summit/?outputType=amp

[Guest]

Haven't seen this addressed anywhere else, so if I missed it I apologize, but India has revoked Kashmir's semi-autonomous status, and is currently inundating the province with troops while arresting Kashmiri leaders and cutting off internet and phone access to the outside world.

This won't end well.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Hey, what could go wrong when one of the hottest spots in the world gets out of hand.....

[Which Tyler]

16 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Hey, what could go wrong when one of the hottest spots in the world gets out of hand.....

Now that depends. Are both sides nuclear powers with religious, racial and territorial tensions to be prayed upon?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Now that depends. Are both sides nuclear powers with religious, racial and territorial tensions to be prayed upon?

Seven decades of tensions to be exact. Obama always said a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan is what kept him up at night the most.

[Zorral]

Haiti has begun impeaching their president, who, like his his predecessor, was installed via the connivance >!<  -- see the Vocabulary thread -- of the Clintons, and has pillaged and stolen every bit of money that was to go to Haiti for himself.

The problem is the mechanism to do so has to be created; there certainly is no provision for it in the Haitian Constitution.  In the past, when the Haitian people decided definitely to rid themselves of a ruler they hated, they resorted to tearing him to pieces.  Duvalier, etc., got off easy.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article233436722.html

https://sentinel.ht/post/politics/legislative/11052-impeachment-of-a-haitian-president-how-it-is-done

 

[Guest]

5 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Now that depends. Are both sides nuclear powers with religious, racial and territorial tensions to be prayed upon?

Hey now, that's just crazy talk! Indians and Pakistanis go on holiday to Kashmir to build campfires, make S'mores and sing Kumbaya together. Let's slow down a bit with the doom and gloom.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Hey now, that's just crazy talk! Indians and Pakistanis go on holiday to Kashmir to build campfires, make S'mores and sing Kumbaya together. Let's slow down a bit with the doom and gloom.

Really? I thought they'd be jamming out to Led Zeppelin. 

[Guest]

14 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Really? I thought they'd be jamming out to Led Zeppelin. 

You know, I decided to check out your claim so I ended up doing some research. Oh, and I do the best research by the way, the best. Everyone's been saying, how does he do research so good? They say, it's crazy they say, how you can't slip anything past him, you can't slip anyone past me. I have one of the great minds of all time and a memory like a steel drum and that's why I do research so good. And I'll have you know, they don't listen to any of that Lead Zeppelin balloon nasty music. It's nasty, nasty I tell you. They have this nasty, nasty little song they like to sing called "Immigrant Song". It's a nasty song, just the worst. Should have been called "Invader", because that's exactly what is happening along our southern border. Yes, yes, listen to them, don't you all worry, that's exactly what's going to happen. In fact we're already building that big beautiful wall right now. Here, I even have some pictures of it on my phone. Oh what's that? You can't see the pictures way out in the crowd? Well it's there, trust me, you can trust me because, see this beautiful, sexy Anerican flag over here? I'm just going to give it a nice big hug and a kiss. The flags let you do it when you're famous like me. And there, see? That's how you know the wall is getting built. But you see, as I mentioned, i do good research, the best! The best, best research and in this case, I found out exactly what the Indians and Pakistanis sing when they go on holiday together in Cashmere, goodness, isn't cashmere so soft? The softest wool, and the only place in the world it comes from is this Cashmere province. But I know the song they sing, and it's not what you think. I'm the only one who knows what it is they sing, I'm the only one that could find out. Now the failing New York Times is going to pop in here and say "the Indians and Pakistanis know what they sing!" Fake News!!!! Trust me when I say that I'm the only one that knows, you see, because after getting back from holiday, they forget what they sang while they were in Cashmere. But I'm going to let you all in on a little secret. Are you ready? It's going to blow your mind. It didn't blow my mind because I have such a big a-brain, but it might blow yours, but here it is. Are you ready for it? They actually sing "Buddy Holly" by Weezer! That's what has kept the peace in Cashmere for dozens and hundreds of years.