International Thread 3

[dornishpen]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's not realistic now, and I agree with you that there's a good chance that China lays low for the time being and then attempts to enact a massive crackdown of HK. It's at that moment in time though where it might be possible to rally international support for a clean break from the mainland. At least that's the only thing that seems feasible without having thoroughly studied the subject.

The world hasn't blinked twice at China locking up over a million Uighur Muslims in "re-education" (concentration) camps in Xinjiang which is a much bigger human rights violation, Hong Kong may be more popular and sympathetic to westerners, but no one is going to do anything if they can't even be bothered to use strong words about the concentration camps.

[The Anti-Targ]

Independence for Hong Kong is surely a pipe dream. Look how hard it is for Independence movements elsewhere in the world, including in allegedly liberal democracies, like Spain. And look how doggedly China is insisting that Taiwan is still part of China despite the whole world, and China, knowing that notion is total BS. China has such a hold on Taiwan being part of China that in multilateral organisations like APEC they do not use the terms "country" or "nation" or "state" to identify members, members are referred to as economies. I was giving a speech at an APEC meeting and I accidentally said "country" once (not as part of the prepared speech of course). I caught myself and quickly said "economy", but I don't know if I should have corrected myself or just let is slide. It didn't create a stir or anything as delegates will slip from time to time, but there is definitely a sensitivity about it.

Hong Kong is recognised and accepted by every country (that matters) and the UN as being part of China. They aren't getting independence. In fact if independence really started to become the explicit goal then China could more easily assert it's right to intervene militarily to prevent revolution and civil war. There might be sympathy on the part of a lot of countries, but every country with regions fighting (in one way or another) for independence is going to stay pretty quiet if China starts putting the boot into any serious independence movements. Heck even the UK would need to think about how it would comment, since there are Scottish and Welsh independence movements, who might quite like it if the UK govt started vocally supporting the justness of Hong Kong independence.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

On 9/2/2019 at 8:07 PM, DMC said:

Well, Russia didn't get invited either, and that clearly has to do with Russia's current regime rather than anything they did in WWII.  (Also, if you wanna have a laugh, take a look at these responses from Russian officials to the snub.)  I don't know much about contemporary Serbian politics, but I'm pretty sure the current regime has pretty close ties to Putin and has since Putin took power, no?  I suspect their snub has more to do with that than anything about what happened in WWII.

The fact that Russia took the Eastern half of Poland and kept it post WWII might also contribute to Poland choosing not to invite the Russians.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The fact that Russia took the Eastern half of Poland and kept it post WWII might also contribute to Poland choosing not to invite the Russians.

Again, the fact that Putin was at the commemoration 10 years ago suggests otherwise.  The fact that Germany was there, logically, suggests otherwise.  And most importantly, the fact that the Polish administration literally told the press - nearly six months ago - this is about Crimea suggests otherwise:

Quote

Polish authorities have refused to invite a Russian delegation to a commemoration ceremony marking the 80th anniversary of the outbreak of World War II.

Krzysztof Szczerski, an aide to the Polish president, said Wednesday in comments carried by the Polish news agency PAP that Russia hasn’t been invited to the events in September because of its aggressive actions in Ukraine.

Russia has been slapped with various international sanctions for its annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014 and ongoing support for separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Szczerski said the anniversary ceremonies will be held “in the company of countries with whom Poland cooperates closely now for peace that is based on the respect for international law, for the sovereignty of nations and of their territory.”

This is not debatable.

[Scott_N]

22 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Hong Kong protestors have defeated Beijing, at least in the meantime. Hopefully they can push forward and get full independence.  

I suspect you are entirely alone having the view protesters have defeated Beijing (or, indeed, won anything at all). Certainly no protester or pro-democracy advocate here in Hong Kong would agree with you.

Nothing has changed except for the technicality that instead of the extradition bill being "dead" it will be formally withdrawn. Without at least an independent review of the police force it's hard to see any kind of rapprochement being brokered. 

[DMC]

On Hong Kong, the most likely outcome - by far - is the maintenance of the status quo, as it always is.  The idea that Beijing will pull back only to wait in the weeds to eventually "crackdown" at a later date is kinda silly, and the thought of an independent Hong Kong even more so.

The withdrawal of the extradition bill satisfies the original impetus for the protests.  3 of the other 4 demands of the protesters relate to the protests themselves (retraction of the "riot" characterization, release/clemency of arrested protesters, inquiry on policy misconduct/use of force during the protests); and the final one is Lam's resignation and universal suffrage.  Wouldn't be surprised if there's empty promises on most of those demands in the coming weeks as well.

[Maithanet]

52 minutes ago, DMC said:

On Hong Kong, the most likely outcome - by far - is the maintenance of the status quo, as it always is.  The idea that Beijing will pull back only to wait in the weeds to eventually "crackdown" at a later date is kinda silly, and the thought of an independent Hong Kong even more so.

But the status is not quo.  Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" more or less expires with in 2048.  At the time that HK moved from British to Chinese control, 50 years seemed like a really long time, but we're getting towards the halfway point and China is trying to increasingly integrate Hong Kong to avoid a big shift in policy at mid-century.  The people of Hong Kong are pushing back against that, but it is hard to see this as anything but an impossible fight. 

China is willing to be patient, so long as they are slowly increasing their control over the island.  But if China's current approach of controlling institutions and information in HK isn't working, then they're going to move to more aggressive forms of control, and they will do so on their own timetable.  That doesn't strike me as "silly" at all.  If HK continues to defy the Chinese govt, a crackdown is virtually guaranteed. 

[DMC]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

But the status is not quo.  Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" more or less expires with in 2048.

Well, that's still 30 years away.  Politically it's safe to say something that long away will still revert to the status quo.  Will the fight continue over the next two decades?  Sure.  But that doesn't mean there's going to be either a "crackdown" in a mass violence sense nor sovereignty for Hong Kong.  They'll probably work out some kind of deal that...maintains the status quo.  

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

But if China's current approach of controlling institutions and information in HK isn't working, then they're going to move to more aggressive forms of control, and they will do so on their own timetable.  That doesn't strike me as "silly" at all.  If HK continues to defy the Chinese govt, a crackdown is virtually guaranteed. 

I disagree.  Empty concessions are virtually guaranteed, like the one Lam just gave em.  The likelihood this turns into any type of massacre or something is very unlikely.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 hours ago, Scott_N said:

I suspect you are entirely alone having the view protesters have defeated Beijing (or, indeed, won anything at all). Certainly no protester or pro-democracy advocate here in Hong Kong would agree with you.

Nothing has changed except for the technicality that instead of the extradition bill being "dead" it will be formally withdrawn. Without at least an independent review of the police force it's hard to see any kind of rapprochement being brokered. 

I'm honestly surprised by this take. Most reports I read led me to believe that Beijing would not back down, which they eventually did. I'd call that a victory, albeit a minor one. It leads me to believe that there is still a possibility for greater reforms, although they will not occur quickly enough.

58 minutes ago, DMC said:

I disagree.  Empty concessions are virtually guaranteed, like the one Lam just gave em.  The likelihood this turns into any type of massacre or something is very unlikely.

I do wonder though what would have happened if either that cop had been killed in the airport and/or he shot and killed multiple protesters. That could have been the spark that truly ignited something horrific in HK.

[Scott_N]

16 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm honestly surprised by this take. Most reports I read led me to believe that Beijing would not back down, which they eventually did. I'd call that a victory, albeit a minor one. It leads me to believe that there is still a possibility for greater reforms, although they will not occur quickly enough.

This is the view across the board so you need better sources. The technicality of calling the extradition law "dead" or having it fully withdrawn is just semantics. Also, that law has always been positioned as having been instigated by Lam herself, not Beijing. So no loss of face for Beijing. 

Until at least some of the other demands are being meaningfully addressed, especially the investigation of police overreach, nothing really changes on the ground. Government hopes some of the less radical protesters will stay home but even if that turns out to be true, sentiment will not change. 

Hong Kong independence is a pipe dream. The only way that could happen is through a revolution in China proper. Which is not on the cards. Anyone who understands the Party, and how deeply their thinking and paranoia has been influenced by the fall of the Soviet Union knows that China will never ever make any concessions regarding territory. 

Xi's China is a reversal to what came before. When he says "Party, government, military, civilian, and academic; east, west, south, north, and center, the Party leads everything" is it not empty rhetoric or slogans. It is the reality. 

Under Xi, there's been an obvious and on-going tightening of controls in Hong Kong. Universal suffrage, regardless of what promises were made before hand-over and what's in the basic law, will not happen. Everyone knows this - protesters and pro-government supporters alike. 

Beijing's version of allowing democracy in Hong Kong is to handpick the Chief Executive, decide who can or cannot be on the Executive Council, approve all ministerial and senior civil service appointments, interfering - in plain sight - in all legislative and district council elections, handpick which Hong Kongers get to "represent" the city at China's people's congress and political conferences. The list is endless, really. So when Carrie Lam says the IPCC - which  is stocked with Beijing-loyalists and lack investigate capabilities - should deal with complaints of the police, it is not a concession at all. 

All that being said, it's generally assumed Beijing will play the long game. Continue to crack down on radical protesters (about a third of them is believed to have been apprehended so, unless there's plenty of new recruits, at some stage violence will naturally diminish) but only through Hong Kong police. Offer some assurances around committees being formed to investigate underlying causes, appeal for patience and bet on it it'll all petering out just like all previous mass-protests have. Until the next flash point. 

[Maithanet]

9 hours ago, Scott_N said:

All that being said, it's generally assumed Beijing will play the long game. Continue to crack down on radical protesters (about a third of them is believed to have been apprehended so, unless there's plenty of new recruits, at some stage violence will naturally diminish) but only through Hong Kong police. Offer some assurances around committees being formed to investigate underlying causes, appeal for patience and bet on it it'll all petering out just like all previous mass-protests have. Until the next flash point. 

I agree, that is fully what I expect China to do.  And if that approach doesn't work, they will take a more forceful approach.  But this will only end one way, with HK fully a Chinese city, with only a few small concessions to its "unique" status. 

[Gorn]

9 hours ago, Scott_N said:

Hong Kong independence is a pipe dream. The only way that could happen is through a revolution in China proper. Which is not on the cards. Anyone who understands the Party, and how deeply their thinking and paranoia has been influenced by the fall of the Soviet Union knows that China will never ever make any concessions regarding territory. 

Agreed. Change of government in China will not happen in the foreseeable future, for the simple reason that 2010's China is not 1980's Soviet Union. Eastern Europeans overthrew communism not because they wanted freedom and democracy, but because they wanted jeans, Volkswagens and Western entertainment, and freedom and democracy were the best method of obtaining them.

Present-day Chinese already have jeans, Volkswagens and Western entertainment. There is no comparable "Yeltsin in a US supermarket" moment, because someone from Shanghai who visits Manhattan will be mostly unimpressed. So what else can you offer them, that's worth risking a return to the Warlord Era?

[Maithanet]

24 minutes ago, Gorn said:

someone from Shanghai who visits Manhattan will be mostly unimpressed.

I think most Americans do not realize the degree to which this is true.  Shanghai is the most modern/"futuristic" city I've ever been to.  It is a showcase of what the Chinese economy is capable of. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

India to become 4th country to achieve a lunar landing-

How to watch the Indian moon landing

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/india/indian-moon-landing-scn-intl-scli/index.html

 

Eta: Apparently the mission ran into some trouble

India's historic, risky landing on Moon's polar surface may have failed

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/india/india-moon-lunar-landing-chandrayaan-2-scn/index.html

[Karneol]

Saudi-Arabia has removed it's energy minister. This might be because of the two following things:

Quote

It comes at a time when oil prices have remained stubbornly below what is needed to keep up with government spending, with Brent crude trading under $60 a barrel, well below the $80-$85 range that analysts say is needed to balance the Saudi budget.

 

Quote

Riyadh has been pumping less than 10m barrels per day for most of 2019, below its OPEC output target.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/09/saudi-king-names-son-prince-abdulaziz-energy-minister-190908045532252.html

[Karneol]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-trump/trump-says-he-canceled-peace-talks-with-taliban-over-kabul-attack-idUSKCN1VS0TJ

Quote

Donald Trump on Saturday said he canceled peace talks with Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders after the insurgent group said it was behind an attack in Kabul that killed an American soldier and 11 other people.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

On 9/5/2019 at 1:08 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

Independence for Hong Kong is surely a pipe dream.

Vanity quote.

On 9/6/2019 at 3:21 PM, Scott_N said:

 

Hong Kong independence is a pipe dream.

 

Oi!! I was there first! Get your own turn of phrase. 

 

Re the oil situation. Funny petrol prices have never been higher here (well, they have, but not by much). Then again, we don't have any real competition in the petrol market. Still, high petrol prices will hopefully keep driving people towards non-emitting modes of transport / public transport.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Quote

Benjamin Netanyahu has announced he will annex large swathes of occupied Palestinian territories if he is re-elected, a decision that for decades has been considered an endgame scenario for Palestinians’ aspirations of statehood.

The Israeli prime minister said on Tuesday that he planned to make the move, which would permanently seize up to one-third of the West Bank, after the election next week and hinted it may have been approved by Washington.

“I am waiting to do this in maximum coordination with [Donald] Trump,” he said in a speech broadcast live on Israeli television.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/10/netanyahu-vows-annex-large-parts-occupied-west-bank-trump

I will never understand the right's approach to maintaining a Jewish state. Making everyone hate you is not the path to follow. 

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I will never understand the right's approach to maintaining a Jewish state. Making everyone hate you is not the path to follow. 

The Israeli right is all about finding it easier to deal with others' hatred than to seek to overcome it.

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

The Israeli right is all about finding it easier to deal with others' hatred than to seek to overcome it.

Or just get rid of those they hate. I’m guessing  most of the Palestinians on the ground will be eventually “asked” to leave by Israel sometime after the annexation.  instead of adopting them into citizens out of fear of their birth rates overshadowing the current Israel population. Or set it up to be the Palestinians have no political/social equal rights to any person of Jewish. I also imagine there will be tons of whining on how critiquing Israel over committing ethnic cleansing or Apartheid isn’t fear(maybe anti-Semitic), because the Palestinians are so bad.