DireWolfSpirit Posted September 16, 2019 Author Share Posted September 16, 2019 16 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: The ultra conspiracist in me thinks this is a US operation. The Trump camp is almost certain that Trump will lose in 2020, so a pretext for war is required and they see the best option as being Iran. Regarding motive, Interestingly with the stock market opening today, we see who has benefited fthe most rom the incident. Energy stocks are among the strongest performers thanks to the rising oil prices. Chesapeake Energy jumped more than 15%. Exxon Mobil and Chevron were some of the strongest Dow stocks at the open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 8 hours ago, Karneol said: You seriously think that Trump is loyal to someone who is not himself? Even if Putin has something to blackmail him, I would consider it far more likely that Trump would not follow his orders and when it comes out would claim "it's fake news, given to "Russian-Trump" Putin by the were evil China." If Russia has Trump by the balls, then Trump loyal to Trump only and always still works. When someone has an axe dangling over your head, then loyalty to oneself means doing whatever the person holding the axe tells you to do. Trump is unlikely to want to risk whatever it is coming out and being able to dismiss it as fake news. Hypothetically of course. Russia may have nothing on Trump and he only appears to be doing some things Russia likes because his interests happen to coincide with Putin's. @DireWolfSpirit It is interesting. It's also interesting that a lot of the world's oil producing regions are politically unstable. Coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karneol Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: If Russia has Trump by the balls, then Trump loyal to Trump only and always still works. This loyalty part referred to the idea of a Putin-Trump alliance (votes in exchange for political favors). Even if he has something to blackmail Trump with, what could it be? What could make his reputation even worse? None of hims supporter seems to care that he is a racist, sex offender, cheater or makes really weird statements about his daughter 11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said: It's also interesting that a lot of the world's oil producing regions are politically unstable. Not only oil but ressources in general. Just look at Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 5 hours ago, Karneol said: Even if he has something to blackmail Trump with, what could it be? What could make his reputation even worse? If we’re going down this rabbit hole, keep in mind blackmailing Trump likely has less to do with hurting his reputation and more to do with messing with his ability to profit post-presidency. Many of his actions give off the impression that his business is seeking to profit massively once he’s out of office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted September 17, 2019 Author Share Posted September 17, 2019 I will never stay at one of his properties, rumor has it that 3/4's of them are infested with bed bugs. He"s really made his brand a target of activist for pertuity, deservedly so imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Last Storm Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/world/army-green-beret-killed-afghanistan-identified.amp Another US Soldier killed, bombs go off via Taliban. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 All three exit polls show Netanyahu's far-right bloc failing to gain 61 seats. Now (assuming those polls are relatively accurate) it's just a question of whether a coalition of the centrist parties, the arab parties and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu can be formed. Which will not be easy. Does anyone who knows more about Israeli politics want to comment? This seems like a good result, with Bibi no longer able to hold off corruption allegations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 37 minutes ago, Maithanet said: This seems like a good result, with Bibi no longer able to hold off corruption allegations? Well, I wouldn't get too excited yet. The Blue and White party is right to be weary after the April exit polls. However, unless the exit polls are drastically inaccurate, it appears either coalition is going to require Liberman as the kingmaker - and he is insisting on a unity government that includes both Blue and White and Likud (and himself of course). Not sure how that'll work, but if Blue and White and/or their coalition wins the most seats, seems prudent they'd get the PM spot in any such unity government, especially considering Bibi's legal troubles. (Interesting to note, BIbi clearly violated two election laws the past few days - first by publicizing poll results after candidates are barred from doing so, and then by giving a radio interview on election day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted September 17, 2019 Share Posted September 17, 2019 9 hours ago, Karneol said: This loyalty part referred to the idea of a Putin-Trump alliance (votes in exchange for political favors). Even if he has something to blackmail Trump with, what could it be? What could make his reputation even worse? None of hims supporter seems to care that he is a racist, sex offender, cheater or makes really weird statements about his daughter Not only oil but ressources in general. Just look at Africa. favors for votes isn't having someone by the balls. Having someone by the balls means you can actually do some damage to them. Something concretely impeachable that would get even Republican senators off side with him would do the trick. It may not even come to impeachment because his own party could pull the mentally incompetent card and put Pence in office. And the base would soon come around, so long as its someone who makes the right noises the racist homophobic base will fall into line. They have no where to go and they are not stupid enough to revolt while a Republican is in power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 5 hours ago, Maithanet said: All three exit polls show Netanyahu's far-right bloc failing to gain 61 seats. Now (assuming those polls are relatively accurate) it's just a question of whether a coalition of the centrist parties, the arab parties and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu can be formed. Which will not be easy. Does anyone who knows more about Israeli politics want to comment? This seems like a good result, with Bibi no longer able to hold off corruption allegations? I don't know a ton about Israeli politics, but I can't imagine that Liberman would be willing to join a government that has the Arab parties in it. And there's no path for the Blue & White to form a government that doesn't have him or Likud in it (no way though they make a deal with the religious far right parties). So I assume Likud will be in the government either way, it's just a question of whether Bibi can bribe off Liberman to have a far-right government, or if Likud is willing to ditch Bibi to join a Blue & White centrist government, or if the Blue & White gives up to avoid a far-right government and lets Bibi stay with them supporting him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Well, Bibi says he won coz he got the majority of the Jewish vote. So that's how USA's bedbug will do it. He loses the election but he got the majority of his base so he won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 26 minutes ago, Fez said: I don't know a ton about Israeli politics, but I can't imagine that Liberman would be willing to join a government that has the Arab parties in it. And there's no path for the Blue & White to form a government that doesn't have him or Likud in it (no way though they make a deal with the religious far right parties). So I assume Likud will be in the government either way, it's just a question of whether Bibi can bribe off Liberman to have a far-right government, or if Likud is willing to ditch Bibi to join a Blue & White centrist government, or if the Blue & White gives up to avoid a far-right government and lets Bibi stay with them supporting him. I think there's another option, which is that B&W form a govt with Likud and Liberman, with the agreement that Likud jettison Bibi. Obviously Netanyahu won't be a fan of that, but there have got to be people on Likud that are ready to make that change, and it seems clearly preferable to a third election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Yeah the antipathy between Liberman and Bibi seems to trump (honestly no pun intended) the ideological proximity between the two parties. It seems the only thing all other parties except Likud and the Orthodox can agree upon is Bibi needs to go. As for Yisrael being open to the Joint List parties involved in a unity government, I agree it doesn't make much sense from either side to be involved with the other, so we'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Well, looks like the results are mostly in and the exits appear to be about accurate. It does not appear the center-left bloc can build a sufficient coalition by just adding the Joint List, but looks like B&W is probably gonna beat out Likud (they're up 32-31 in the the Haaretz link, AP has them up 33-32 right now). So, seems a unity government with YB but without the Joint List is most likely, with Likud sacking Bibi as leader and joining. It's definitely not looking good for him: Quote In a reflection of his predicament, officials in Netanyahu’s office announced that he had called off a planned visit to New York, where he was scheduled to address the U.N. General Assembly and meet with Trump. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity pending an official announcement. A lukewarm statement by Trump provided little support for the embattled leader. “Our relationship is with Israel,” he said in California. “We’ll see what happens.” Ben Caspit, a columnist for the Maariv daily, said Netanyahu’s chances of returning as prime minister are low. “He has nothing that he can leverage. He has no one to exert pressure on. There are simply no more rabbits left in his hat,” he said. “He’ll blame the entire world, but he has only himself (and his wife) to blame. This phenomenally talented man became addicted to power and rotted from the inside out.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted September 18, 2019 Share Posted September 18, 2019 Here are some helpful pods on Israel's current situation. https://the1a.org/shows/2019-09-18/israel-goes-to-the-polls-again https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2019/09/18/israel-elections-trump-us-iran-saudi-oil-attacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karneol Posted September 20, 2019 Share Posted September 20, 2019 Netanyahu's mysterious Palestine annexion plans? Anti-Iran conspiricy with bin Salman? Or blackmail talks with Putin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted September 23, 2019 Share Posted September 23, 2019 On 9/16/2019 at 5:19 PM, The Anti-Targ said: If Russia has Trump by the balls, then Trump loyal to Trump only and always still works. When someone has an axe dangling over your head, then loyalty to oneself means doing whatever the person holding the axe tells you to do. Trump is unlikely to want to risk whatever it is coming out and being able to dismiss it as fake news. Hypothetically of course. Russia may have nothing on Trump and he only appears to be doing some things Russia likes because his interests happen to coincide with Putin's. Dude, you haven’t actually shown in any real way that what Trump is doing concerning Iran(tearing up the nuclear agreement, having war-hawks in positions of power where they decry Iran as a great evil), are things Putin likes. Just presented this vague hypothesis(which you’ve given no evidence for) that the Ayelatolla and Putin would rather become nuclear even at the cost of great economic sanctions imposed on it(the very things that got them to agree to the nuclear deal in the first place). Seriously, you do understand if Iran goes nuclear how Trump’s base would demand immediate military action against it right? Evangelicals see it as one of the biggest threats to Israel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindwalker Posted September 29, 2019 Share Posted September 29, 2019 Well, well. Say hello to the next Chancellor of Austria. You may remember him, he was also the previous chancellor. Huge gains for his party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted September 30, 2019 Author Share Posted September 30, 2019 Pope Francis making the perfect point here- Countries that make weapons of war foment migration but refuse refugees, Pope Francis says https://news.yahoo.com/countries-weapons-war-foment-migration-113114545.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karneol Posted October 4, 2019 Share Posted October 4, 2019 South-America crisis news: State of emergency in Ecuador: President strips away fuel subsidies. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/03/world/americas/ecuador-transit-strike-fuel-subsidy.html Sequel for colombian civil war? Ex-Farc members don't feel like the goverment fullfill the peace treaty . The EU has imposed some new sanctions on Venezuela, which don't make the situation there better- like at all. https://m.dw.com/en/the-human-cost-of-the-us-sanctions-on-venezuela/a-50647399 Argentina gets itself into another crisis (another one!). Maybe you should spend more time on the Weimar Republic in history lesson. https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-argentina-faces-an-economic-crisis-again-11569422388 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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