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Black Crow

Heresy 222 vindication

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Another thought would be, like you mentioned, Rhaegar would have to be nuts to think taking Lyanna wouldn’t anger the northerners. But if Rhaegar thought a prophecy foretold the return of the Others, the first kingdom in their path would be the north, and Rickard May have taken interest in that.

Whilst the R+L=J theory might be consistent with this. I don't think that Rhaegar [like Mel] had any notion of the Others. I still think that he was obsessed with hatching dragons simply because he knew the dynasty wouldn't survive without them

Edited by Black Crow

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12 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I don't think that Rhaegar [like Mel] had any notion of the Others

Obviously, the issue is that we don't know exactly what Rhaegar read.  But we are told in Storm of Swords:

Quote

"As you wish," said Whitebeard. "As a young boy, the Prince of Dragonstone was bookish to a fault. He was reading so early that men said Queen Rhaella must have swallowed some books and a candle whilst he was in her womb. Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father's knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, 'I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.'"

So, whatever it was, he knew that he must be geared and prepared for battle.  This implies that there will be some sort of foe. 

Also, Melisandre frequently refers to "The Great Other".  She may not know exactly what they are going to be battling, but knows it is something.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/28/2019 at 11:46 AM, Feather Crystal said:

Someone up thread questioned Euron's age. We can only use approximations, because his name day or age is never mentioned. The wiki calculates his birth year anytime between 256-268, making him 30-42 when A Game of Thrones begins, and 13-25 years old during the tourney at Harrenhal. That's a huge range, but since his eye patch seems to be old news - no one comments on its recent appearance, so I think we can safely assume he's had it a very long time. Long enough for Theon to remember it when he was young before being taken as Ned's ward. We also need to consider his night time visits to Urri and Aeron would have logically occurred while he was young enough to be living at home and not out sailing and plundering - I suppose puberty to young teen. I'd be tempted to say he was 13 during the tourney when lightning struck hard enough to reset winter, damage his eye, awaken his gifts, and for Euron to begin experimenting on his younger brothers...

My head canon has always told me that Balon Greyjoy (and his brothers Euron and Victarion) was older than Ned, although there is no proof of that.  Still, if Ned was 24-25 at the time Theon was 10, and Theon was the youngest of Balon's children, then Balon has to be more than a few years older than Ned. Ned would have had 5 year old boys at this time, and Balon's eldest sons were old enough to fight in the rebellion, so at least 16, but maybe 15. We don't know what age Balon married Alannys Harlaw, but it's doubtful he was very young, and there were at least 3 years between Asha and Theon, or how much older Rodrik or Maron might have been in comparison to Asha, but at least 2-3 years, I would think, with Asha 13 and Theon 10. Even if Balon married and had a first son at 14, it would make him 30 at the time of his rebellion if Rodrik is 16. And if, as the wiki calculates Euron being as young as 13 at Harrenhal and 15 at the end of the Robert's Rebellion, therefore he would be 20 at the time of the Greyjoy rebellion, and I find it hard to imagine an 8- 10 year age gape between Balon and Euron, although I guess it's possible.

Hard to say how much time came between the Greyjoy brothers (Quellon's sons), but of the 5 born to the same mother, the order seems to be Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urrigon and Aeron, although the way that Aeron thinks of Urri is almost like Aeron was older. Still, I will go with the wiki on this, which I think comes from the order that Aeron lists himself and his full-siblings. If Aeron was 13 when Urrigon died at age 14, and that was at the end of Robert's Rebellion, the same time that Quellen died and Balon became Lord of Pyke. We have no idea if Balon was married and had children, but he must have, just based on the ages of his children during the Greyjoy rebellion. Still, he would have had all of his children born by the time of Harrenhal, too, if the least amount of time is 7 years between Harrenhal and the Greyjoy Rebellion, and we know that Theon is 9 at the time of the Greyjoy rebellion.  It's hard to fathom that Balon was so much older than Euron that he was married and had all four of his children born while his next youngest brother was only 13. According to the wiki, if the youngest Balon could have been at the time of his rebellion was 28, which means he had Rodrik at probably age 12, which is pretty darn young. Young enough that people would probably brag of this age, and not the fact that he took his first salt wife at 15. I actually think Balon, Euron and Vic, at least, are older than Ned and Robert, closer to the higher estimates in the wiki and not the younger.

If there was only 1 year between Harrenhal and the and of the Rebellion, then at the time of Harrenhal, Urri was 13, based on Urri age of 14 at death. If it was closer to 2 years, then Urri was 12 at Harrenhal but died two years later at the end of Robert's Rebellion. Either way, Euron has to be older than 13 years old, since he is older than Urri, and Victarion still lies between them. So, even with one year between Euron and Vic and one year between Vic and Urri, Euron could have only been 2 years older than Urri, making the youngest Euron could be 14-15 at Harrenhal, in my estimation. 

Honestly, I am not sure how the wiki get's to it's calculation on Euron's possible birth years, and I might be missing something in my own calculations. 

Quote

 

A flying axe took off half of Urri's hand when he was ten-and-four, playing at the finger dance whilst his father and his elder brothers were away at war. AFFC-The Prophet

 

I read this as Urri dying at 14, which would have probably been 283, the year Robert's rebellion ended.  I guess much could very depending on how quickly Quellon had his sons on his Sunderley wife, and how long between Harrenhal and the end of the rebellion, but I think 13 is still young for Euron at Harrenhal. Unless there is a set of twins in the mix, and that has never been hinted at with the Greyjoy's.

Both Balon and Victarion are grey haired, and although Euron has no grey hairs and his face is handsome and unlined, he is still older than Victarion, and I think he is quite capable of using glamours or dark magic to keep himself looking young.

I am honestly more confused about all of this than when I started, and I still am not certain of anything! :angry: LOLing at myself! I'm sorry it sounds so scattered, The more I tried to clarify the ages and my thoughts, the more scattered it sounded.

 

**And to completely derail my own post, but Quellon's 9th son was Robin and he is said to have been sickly and Aeron refers to Robin as a "sickly, idiot boy" which actually makes me think of Sweetrobin a bit, based on health and name. Robert Arryn is also considered sickly and weak, is looking to die at a young age, perhaps because of his "possible seizure disorder" which might be a greenseer trying to see through him, and Robin isn't actually his name at all, just an odd nickname. Does Robin Greyjoy's health and death have a hint to us about what might be going on with Sweetrobin? Or does Sweetrobin's situation give us some idea of what might have happened to Robin Greyjoy? 

 

 

Edited by St Daga
clarification on Quellon's name

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On 5/28/2019 at 6:13 PM, MaesterSam said:

This is only slightly related but I suppose this is as good a time as any to mention that Tywin's mother was a Marbrand from Ashemark. So Cersei could have gotten her love for fire from her grandmother. More intriguingly, the sigil of House Marbrand is a burning tree - orange on a smokey (grey) field/ background. Funny that this doesn't come up more often...

Sorry, I am days behind on this thread, so if this was already commented on, I apologize. Addam Marbrand has always stood out to me. First of all, he get's quite a few mentions in the story, more than I think  makes sense for what seems like a minor character. He is one of three characters described with "copper" hair, the other two being women, Melisandre and Sansa (I almost typed Sandra-oops!) He is a childhood friend of Jaime's but I don't think Cersei is overly fond of him. He was appointed the head of the city watch for a time and accompanied Jaime into the riverlands to tie up the loose ends of the War of Five Kings. When last we see Ser Addam, he is off hunting the whereabouts of the Blackfish!

His family home is Ashemark and his families sigil is VERY interesting. The burning tree, as you pointed out. Along with the copper color of his hair, these details sound important.  Oddly enough, he wears an "ash" grey cloak, but for some reason, the grey cloak makes me think of the Starks, the copper hair makes me think of Sansa, the "burning tree" makes me think of the weirwoods, although I think the tree on the sigil is described as "a burning tree, orange on smoke", so a grey background but is the tree orange, the flames orange or all of it. What tree has orange bark? Perhaps the flames make the bark of a white tree appear orange? Are the Marbrand's weirwood burners?

I think there is something important about Addam or his future, although I am not sure what it might be.

 

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On 5/29/2019 at 11:04 AM, Jabar of House Titan said:

I think Cersei killed her for both reasons.

It's sad though...Cersei killing her friend and watching her drown. Are we sure that Cersei is not just a narcissist but a sociopath?

Well, Joffrey was a sociopath and he clearly doesn't get this from Jaime, so... Yes, I think it fit's Cersei, but I think she is growing more unhinged! I also think Tywin could be a sociopath, but one that was very well controlled. 

 

On 5/29/2019 at 1:41 PM, Jova Snow said:

@Black Crow and @St Daga another Sorrowful Men of our story is Xaro Xhoan Daxos

Perhaps. What kind of clues are you looking at?

 

12 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

Catelyn was twelve when she was bethored to Brandon, Ashara's sister Allyria was eleven or twelve, Myrcella was nine and Arya was eight if I am not wrong. 

I don't think Arya was betrothed, but the real Arya was perhaps 11  at the time of fArya/Jeyne Pooles betrothal to Ramsay. 

I do think it's odd that Balon never got Asha betrothed or married, since her marriage might have been a strong alliance for the Greyjoy's, perhaps in even getting Theon back from Ned's "wardship". 

 

8 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

We should consider the possibility Rickard was more like Littlefinger and less like Ned.  Jon Arryn raised him and all Ned's values of honor and honesty could be from Jon's ideals of Knighthood, not his biological father. 

This would be a nice mirror to Jon being so like Ned IF Ned turns out not to be Jon's bio-Dad. Jon (Snow) is like Ned, and Ned is like Jon (Arryn) and none of them are like their sperm donor.

 

5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Now, something that I just thought of while writing this post actually is the Tourney of Lannisport.  Perhaps we should be looking more at things that happened during this time.  This was prior to Rhaegar's marriage to Elia, this was where Tywin was spurned by Aerys, and Jorah won his knighthood. What was the purpose of the tourney - was it celebrating Viserys' birth or 10 years on the throne? I can't remember.  Perhaps we have been looking for answers to some of our questions at the wrong tourney.

Jorah won his knighthood (and Lynesse) at a tourney after the Greyjoy rebellion, so long after Rhaegar was dead. I think there are multiple tourney's at Lannisport, but we know of two. The tourney in honor of Prince Viserys's birth in 276 and the Tourney after the Greyjoy rebellion in 289.

 

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I don't think that there was a conspiracy, or at least a single, unified conspiracy, but rather that those families were jockeying for power in the post Targaryen Westeros. One faction and perhaps the strongest faction was the northern one headed by Rickon Stark but probably orchestrated by Jon Arryn. The Lannisters obviously were another and with their own agenda, while Rhaegar Targaryen as I suggest was trying to save the dynasty. Amidst all of this Lyanna Stark's fate had everything to do with politics and nothing to do with ballad singers.

It does make sense that many of the great lords were trying to put some regulations on the crown. We see this in history with monarchies, when powerful lords constrain the kingship in some way, be it a Magna Carta type of situation or Lord's pushing for a parliament of Lords that could perhaps overrule the king at times. If Rhaegar suspected such a thing was possible, probably in relation to Aerys questionable mental status, Rhaegar would perhaps not like to think he was going to eventually inherit a very "limited" throne, in comparison to what had come before him. That is a good reason for him to try to destroy any such alliance. IF Rickard was a large part of that, perhaps holding a hostage by the crown like Lyanna, would make Rhaegar think he had some power. But he lost his hostage for what ever reason, and things spiraled out of control. This is rather like what happened to Cat when she kidnapped Tyrion. It all spiraled out of control and caused a war. This again makes me think if Rhaegar and Lyanna crossed paths, it was by pure accident, much like Cat and Tyrion.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am still reviewing the timeline you sent me. I don’t have a problem with most of it and like you said, it’s hard to be sure.  My big thing is that Think there is a gap between the tourney, which compensates for the Elia pregnancy issue. 

And thank you! That actually fits my point better! Wouldn’t Rickard be very angry his only daughter was kidnapped? He was already heading south for Brandon’s wedding but as you noted, answered Aerys’ summons and demands trial by battle. He doesn’t bring up Lyanna being taken? That strikes me as peculiar, unless Rickard has sent Lyanna on a mission of some sorts. Another thought would be, like you mentioned, Rhaegar would have to be nuts to think taking Lyanna wouldn’t anger the northerners. But if Rhaegar thought a prophecy foretold the return of the Others, the first kingdom in their path would be the north, and Rickard May have taken interest in that.

We only get the details of Rickard and Brandon's executions from Jaime's POVs and they are as an observer standing next to the king. He would have no idea of what Rickard was thinking.

People were shocked that Rhaegar rode past his wife to lay the laurel in Lyanna's lap. Don't you think her being pregnant added to that shock? Again, we have to keep in mind how we know these details. Ned's thoughts provide most of it and the bulk of his memories center on how it led to Lyanna's death and the deaths of Elia and the children.

There are no mentions of Elia being pregnant at all in any of the text and yet we know that she had given birth to two children. Just because no one mentioned seeing her pregnant doesn't mean that she wasn't. The timing of her marriage, birth of her first child, and the noted six month recovery period proves that she was pregnant during the tourney.

There's only a three month window using Rhaenys birth as an anchoring point. Rhaenys was born during the same year her parents married. Rhaegar and Elia could have married Jan, Feb, or Mar and still produce Rhaenys in Oct, Nov, or Dec of 280. Now add six months recovery, which is basically saying she conceived her second child six months after delivering the first. Aegon was conceived either April, May, or June 281, and born either Jan, Feb, or Mar 282. Harrenhal was late Nov or early Dec 281, making Elia anywhere from 5 months to 8 months pregnant at the tourney - which are definitely times when a pregnancy would be noticeable.

GRRM confirmed that Aegon was 10-14 months old at his death in 283. Since his birth month is either Jan, Feb, or Mar, then our 10-14 month window for the Sack can only occur during Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, or May 283 at the latest. 

Pushing Aegon's birth month later than Mar disregards the text that states Elia recovered six months. "Recovering" after birth implies the length of time before conceiving again. It doesn't mean "bed-ridden" or that she could not travel. It simply means her "lady-bits" needed time before it could produce another child. 

Pushing Aegon's birth later also creates issues with logistics. Exactly when did Rhaegar find the time to impregnate his wife if not before the tourney? Wasn't he absent at the beginning of the new year 282 when Lyanna went missing?

20 minutes ago, St Daga said:

My head canon has always told me that Balon Greyjoy (and his brothers Euron and Victarion) was older than Ned, although there is no proof of that.  Still, if Ned was 24-25 at the time Theon was 10, and Theon was the youngest of Balon's children, then Balon has to be more than a few years older than Ned. Ned would have had 5 year old boys at this time, and Balon's eldest sons were old enough to fight in the rebellion, so at least 16, but maybe 15. We don't know what age Balon married Alannys Harlaw, but it's doubtful he was very young, and there were at least 3 years between Asha and Theon, or how much older Rodrik or Maron might have been in comparison to Asha, but at least 2-3 years, I would think, with Asha 13 and Theon 10. Even if Balon married and had a first son at 14, it would make him 30 at the time of his rebellion if Rodrik is 16. And if, as the wiki calculates Euron being as young as 13 at Harrenhal and 15 at the end of the Robert's Rebellion, therefore he would be 20 at the time of the Greyjoy rebellion, and I find it hard to imagine an 8- 10 year age gape between Balon and Euron, although I guess it's possible.

Hard to say how much time came between the Greyjoy brothers (Quellon's sons), but of the 5 born to the same mother, the order seems to be Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urrigon and Aeron, although the way that Aeron thinks of Urri is almost like Aeron was older. Still, I will go with the wiki on this, which I think comes from the order that Aeron lists himself and his full-siblings. If Aeron was 13 when Urrigon died at age 14, and that was at the end of Robert's Rebellion, the same time that Quellen died and Balon became Lord of Pyke. We have no idea if Balon was married and had children, but he must have, just based on the ages of his children during the Greyjoy rebellion. Still, he would have had all of his children born by the time of Harrenhal, too, if the least amount of time is 7 years between Harrenhal and the Greyjoy Rebellion, and we know that Theon is 9 at the time of the Greyjoy rebellion.  It's hard to fathom that Balon was so much older than Euron that he was married and had all four of his children born while his next youngest brother was only 13. According to the wiki, if the youngest Balon could have been at the time of his rebellion was 28, which means he had Rodrik at probably age 12, which is pretty darn young. Young enough that people would probably brag of this age, and not the fact that he took his first salt wife at 15. I actually think Balon, Euron and Vic, at least, are older than Ned and Robert, closer to the higher estimates in the wiki and not the younger.

If there was only 1 year between Harrenhal and the and of the Rebellion, then at the time of Harrenhal, Urri was 13, based on Urri age of 14 at death. If it was closer to 2 years, then Urri was 12 at Harrenhal but died two years later at the end of Robert's Rebellion. Either way, Euron has to be older than 13 years old, since he is older than Urri, and Victarion still lies between them. So, even with one year between Euron and Vic and one year between Vic and Urri, Euron could have only been 2 years older than Urri, making the youngest Euron could be 14-15 at Harrenhal, in my estimation. 

Honestly, I am not sure how the wiki get's to it's calculation on Euron's possible birth years, and I might be missing something in my own calculations. 

I read this as Urri dying at 14, which would have probably been 283, the year Robert's rebellion ended.  I guess much could very depending on how quickly Balon had his sons on his Sunderley wife, and how long between Harrenhal and the end of the rebellion, but I think 13 is still young for Euron at Harrenhal. Unless there is a set of twins in the mix, and that has never been hinted at with the Greyjoy's.

Both Balon and Victarion are grey haired, and although Euron has no grey hairs and his face is handsome and unlined, he is still older than Victarion, and I think he is quite capable of using glamours or dark magic to keep himself looking young.

I am honestly more confused about all of this than when I started, and I still am not certain of anything! :angry: LOLing at myself! I'm sorry it sounds so scattered, The more I tried to clarify the ages and my thoughts, the more scattered it sounded.

 

**And to completely derail my own post, but Quellon's 9th son was Robin and he is said to have been sickly and Aeron refers to Robin as a "sickly, idiot boy" which actually makes me think of Sweetrobin a bit, based on health and name. Robert Arryn is also considered sickly and weak, is looking to die at a young age, perhaps because of his "possible seizure disorder" which might be a greenseer trying to see through him, and Robin isn't actually his name at all, just an odd nickname. Does Robin Greyjoy's health and death have a hint to us about what might be going on with Sweetrobin? Or does Sweetrobin's situation give us some idea of what might have happened to Robin Greyjoy? 

 

 

Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urri and Aeron were from a second marriage, and probably a noticeable gap from Quellon's elder sons. The wiki gives a range for the year of Balon's birth: 255-261, while Ned's birth year is stated as 263, making Balon 8-2 years older than Ned. Do we have text to support the idea that Euron is older than Victarion? I guess I'd want to start there before trying to nail down their ages.

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34 minutes ago, St Daga said:

I don't think Arya was betrothed, but the real Arya was perhaps 11  at the time of fArya/Jeyne Pooles betrothal to Ramsay. 

Catelyn promised Arya to one of Walder's grandsons.

34 minutes ago, St Daga said:

I do think it's odd that Balon never got Asha betrothed or married, since her marriage might have been a strong alliance for the Greyjoy's, perhaps in even getting Theon back from Ned's "wardship". 

Asha was Balon's choice for heir. Her husband would be like Prince Albert is to Queen Elizabeth. Asha would be the monarch, so I'm sure he was still struggling with the choice when he was killed. Plus Asha was still young and captain of her own ship. Euron married her to that old man that he put in charge of the Iron Islands in his absence though.

35 minutes ago, St Daga said:

But he lost his hostage for what ever reason, and things spiraled out of control. This is rather like what happened to Cat when she kidnapped Tyrion. It all spiraled out of control and caused a war. This again makes me think if Rhaegar and Lyanna crossed paths, it was by pure accident, much like Cat and Tyrion.

The parallel is between the Starks and the Lannisters. Catelyn is the Lady of Winterfell while Tyrion is the son of the Lord of Casterly Rock. The inverted parallel would be the Lord of Casterly Rock is responsible for the abduction of a daughter of Winterfell. Lord versus Lady, and daughter versus son. The son was taken east, while I suspect the daughter was taken west.

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Do we have even 1 example before the events leading up to the rebellion of the heir to a Great House marrying into another Great House? 

I don't count Targaryens as a Great House, as the Great Houses are their vassals. 

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On ‎5‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 1:58 PM, Black Crow said:

I'm really not sure about Illyrio. While he's certainly up to his fat neck in whatever's going on and has a suitably mysterious past, he doesn't strike me as being the one running the show.

This idead about Rugen is fascinating.  Recall that Arya overhears Illyrio referring to Rugen as wizard.  Maybe that's not so far off the mark.  Illyrio defers to him when asked to acquire more little birds in spite of the difficulty.  Perhaps Varys did perish when his parts were sacrificed.  Is this a case of a faceless man assuming the memory as well as the identity of their victim? 

One of Varys' oddest comments went something like: waves crash overhead but I keep paddling along.  Sorry my search of ice and fire isn't working today.  This is a kind of under-the-sea statement that reminds me of Patchface.

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2 hours ago, St Daga said:

Sorry, I am days behind on this thread, so if this was already commented on, I apologize. Addam Marbrand has always stood out to me. First of all, he get's quite a few mentions in the story, more than I think  makes sense for what seems like a minor character. He is one of three characters described with "copper" hair, the other two being women, Melisandre and Sansa (I almost typed Sandra-oops!) He is a childhood friend of Jaime's but I don't think Cersei is overly fond of him. He was appointed the head of the city watch for a time and accompanied Jaime into the riverlands to tie up the loose ends of the War of Five Kings. When last we see Ser Addam, he is off hunting the whereabouts of the Blackfish!

His family home is Ashemark and his families sigil is VERY interesting. The burning tree, as you pointed out. Along with the copper color of his hair, these details sound important.  Oddly enough, he wears an "ash" grey cloak, but for some reason, the grey cloak makes me think of the Starks, the copper hair makes me think of Sansa, the "burning tree" makes me think of the weirwoods, although I think the tree on the sigil is described as "a burning tree, orange on smoke", so a grey background but is the tree orange, the flames orange or all of it. What tree has orange bark? Perhaps the flames make the bark of a white tree appear orange? Are the Marbrand's weirwood burners?

I think there is something important about Addam or his future, although I am not sure what it might be.

 

 I am almost certain the tree has to be a weirwood - because what's the significance of burning some other tree? 

The burning tree combined with the castle name Ashemark and the House name Marbrand strongly links this House to fire. In fact, it seems like everything linked to that House (sigil, castle & name) is connected to fire, and it seems likely that it refers to the fire of the burning tree - probably a key event in their history. 

The copper hair also tells us that the Marbrands are kissed by fire, so that's yet another link. 

In terms of other associations, the Grey King of the ironborn also killed their weirwood (though it was cut down to become a longship, rather than burned). It may symbolize a rebelling against the Old Gods in both cases. Ashemark makes me think of Asha...

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urri and Aeron were from a second marriage, and probably a noticeable gap from Quellon's elder sons. The wiki gives a range for the year of Balon's birth: 255-261, while Ned's birth year is stated as 263, making Balon 8-2 years older than Ned. Do we have text to support the idea that Euron is older than Victarion? I guess I'd want to start there before trying to nail down their ages.

I wasn't questioning the age gap between children of Quellon's first marriage and second (though I was so damn disorganized and rambling that probably wasn't clear), only the time frame for the kids of the second marriage. Balon is the eldest of the five boys from Quellon's second marriage. If Balon and Euron are next to each other in line of birth for Quellon and from the same marriage, which it seems they are, I doubt there is a several years or more between their birth dates.

Quote

Nine sons had been born from the loins of Quellon Greyjoy, the Lord of the Iron Islands. Harlon, Quenton, and Donel had been born of Lord Quellon's first wife, a woman of the Stonetrees. Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urrigon, and Aeron were the sons of his second, a Sunderly of Saltcliffe. For a third wife Quellon took a girl from the green lands, who gave him a sickly idiot boy named Robin, the brother best forgotten. The priest had no memory of Quenton or Donel, who had died as infants. Harlon he recalled but dimly, sitting grey-faced and still in a windowless tower room and speaking in whispers that grew fainter every day as the greyscale turned his tongue and lips to stone. One day we shall feast on fish together in the Drowned God's watery halls, the four of us and Urri too. AFFC-The Prophet

My head canon actually had Urri as younger than Aeron, but since Aeron lists their order with him last, and the wiki states the same thing, I am going with this order for their births.

Quote

 

"And Victarion?" asked Gorold Goodbrother. "He has the Iron Fleet. Will Victarion make a claim, Damphair?"
 
"Euron is the elder brother . . ." began the maester.
 
Aeron silenced him with a look. In little fishing towns and great stone keeps alike such a look from Damphair would make maids feel faint and send children shrieking to their mothers, and it was more than sufficient to quell the chain-neck thrall. "Euron is elder," the priest said, "but Victarion is more godly." AFFC-The Prophet

 

 

Quote

"It was good of you to bring such gifts to my queensmoot, Nuncle," she told Victarion, "but you need not have worn so much armor. I promise not to hurt you." Asha turned to face the captains. "There's no one braver than my nuncle, no one stronger, no one fiercer in a fight. And he counts to ten as quick as any man, I have seen him do it . . . though when he needs to go to twenty he does take off his boots." That made them laugh. "He has no sons, though. His wives keep dying. The Crow's Eye is his elder and has a better claim . . ." AFFC-The Drowned Man

From these quotes, I think it confirms that Euron is definitely older than Victarion. So, I think the order that Aeron lists in his thoughts is probably correct. Balon, Euron, Victarion, Urrigon, then Aeron from Quellon's second marriage.
 
Edited by St Daga

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27 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

I am almost certain the tree has to be a weirwood - because what's the significance of burning some other tree? 

The burning tree combined with the castle name Ashemark and the House name Marbrand strongly links this House to fire. In fact, it seems like everything linked to that House (sigil, castle & name) is connected to fire, and it seems likely that it refers to the fire of the burning tree - probably a key event in their history. 

The copper hair also tells us that the Marbrands are kissed by fire, so that's yet another link. 

In terms of other associations, the Grey King of the ironborn also killed their weirwood (though it was cut down to become a longship, rather than burned). It may symbolize a rebelling against the Old Gods in both cases. Ashemark makes me think of Asha...

Here is what I thought of when reading your post. I already had mentioned that Addam Marbrand, Melisandre and Sansa are the only character's in the text that I have found to have copper colored hair. So, you bring up some nice hints that the Marbrand's, with Addam being the only one we know, as possible weirwood burners. Then we have Melisandre, who is reported to have burned the weirwood at Storm's End, and we see her orchestrating wildlings burning weirwood branches as part of a ritual to cross the wall. And then we have Sansa with the copper hair... does this hint that Sansa perhaps is going to be linked to the burning of weirwoods?

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Lady Catelyn had turned over her hands, to show Brienne the scars on her palms and fingers where a knife once bit deep into her flesh. Then she had begun to talk about her daughters. "Sansa was a little lady," she had said, "always courteous and eager to please. She loved tales of knightly valor. She will grow into a woman far more beautiful than I, you can see that. I would often brush her hair myself. She had auburn hair, thick and soft . . . the red in it would shine like copper in the light of the torches." AFFC-Brienne II

I might need to look into Sansa's imagery with fire. I remember her being terrified of the fire on the Blackwater when Stannis's fleet burned, but she watched it burn for quite some time. The other thing that sticks in my mind is her burning her sheet's and mattress after her moon's blood starts. The rest will involve some research, but I admit I am intrigued by this possibility.

 

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1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

Do we have even 1 example before the events leading up to the rebellion of the heir to a Great House marrying into another Great House? 

I don't count Targaryens as a Great House, as the Great Houses are their vassals. 

Well, when Ned was researching Baratheon-Lannister marriages and hair color of offspring, it looks like there were some marriages between these two houses. I am not sure about them being the heir to the lordship or not.

And we have Torrhen Stark's daughter being married to Ronnel Arryn, the lord of the Eyrie, although that was orchestrated by the Targaryen queens.

Those just popped into my head. I am not sure they really fit though, considering the requirements of heir. I am not sure if that is a direct heir or just in the line of inheritance?

ETA: Also I guess it matters what we consider a great house. Luwin tells Bran that only a few of the great houses of the north follow the faith, so I am not sure how many houses in the north that Luwin considers "great houses".

Edited by St Daga
ETA

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8 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I think you've been hanging out with the R+L=J crowd too long. You've adopted their standard "we know" claim when it's only a theory.

I think they're wrong about Jon's parents, but they're not wrong about everything.  (Stopped clocks are right twice a day.)

There is just never any canonical evidence, or even a suggestion, that Harrenhal happened right before the war. 

All the information we're given, with no exceptions to my knowledge, suggests a gap of quite a few months.

8 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Feather Crystal and I have sparred in good fun with this in the past (the Hammering Out the Timeline thread I believe).  My estimation is between 4 to 6 months.  What do you think?

Six might work, though I imagine it was a bit longer than that. 

Jaime was 15 at Harrenhal and 17 at the Sack.  Meanwhile, Ned was 18 at Harrenhal... and yet in AGOT, he is 35 when Jon is 14, meaning Ned was 20-21 when Jon was born near the end of the war.  So both of these situations suggest a gap of around a year between Harrenhal and the war, followed by the war lasting a year or so. 

We can futz around with birthdays, but it amounts to trying to twist facts to suit theories, when, as Conan Doyle pointed out, theories should instead be twisted to suit the facts.  

There is also the problem of the horrible winter that followed Harrenhal, ending the false spring, because we know Lyanna disappeared shortly before Brandon's wedding to Catelyn. 

It seems likely to me the winter played itself out, and true spring returned, taking months... and then Brandon and Catelyn's wedding was scheduled, since it was spring... and then Lyanna disappeared.

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2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Do we have even 1 example before the events leading up to the rebellion of the heir to a Great House marrying into another Great House? 

There's every single example Ned finds of Baratheon/Lannister marriages yielding black-haired children, leading him to understand the phrase "the seed is strong."

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5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:
5 hours ago, St Daga said:

I don't think Arya was betrothed, but the real Arya was perhaps 11  at the time of fArya/Jeyne Pooles betrothal to Ramsay. 

Catelyn promised Arya to one of Walder's grandsons.

Gosh, I totally spaced that out. Elmar Frey. Thanks! 

 

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Asha was Balon's choice for heir. Her husband would be like Prince Albert is to Queen Elizabeth. Asha would be the monarch, so I'm sure he was still struggling with the choice when he was killed. Plus Asha was still young and captain of her own ship. Euron married her to that old man that he put in charge of the Iron Islands in his absence though.

I think Balon was holding out hope in Theon, even after he felt Theon had grown up soft at Winterfell. He was perhaps using Asha, too, playing them against each other. It's doubtful, even with his support, she could lead the Iron Born. Unless perhaps she married one of her uncles, and that just leaves Euron and Victarion, because I doubt Aeron can marry as a priest of the Drowned God.

Even if she was his planned heir, she is 23 when we meet her, definitely she should be married, or at least there should be a plan in place for her to marry. If she had already been married to a man of her and Balon's choice, it would have saved her a marriage by proxy seal to Erik Ironmaker. Her lack of allies and a husband put her in a weak position, although I am sure that Balon didn't expect to be murdered, so he might have had more of a plan in place for after the north was secured. Then he would have a much stronger negotiating power as the King of the Isles and North. It's interesting because this weakens her ability to get allies and her marriage seems to be as legal to Erik Ironmaker as Sansa's is to Tyrion. It will be interesting to see how these situations play out. 

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

There's every single example Ned finds of Baratheon/Lannister marriages yielding black-haired children, leading him to understand the phrase "the seed is strong."

Here is that passage:

Quote

The seed is strong, Jon Arryn had cried on his deathbed, and so it was. All those bastards, all with hair as black as night. Grand Maester Malleon recorded the last mating between stag and lion, some ninety years ago, when Tya Lannister wed Gowen Baratheon, third son of the reigning lord. Their only issue, an unnamed boy described in Malleon’s tome as a large and lusty lad born with a full head of black hair, died in infancy. Thirty years before that a male Lannister had taken a Baratheon maid to wife. She had given him three daughters and a son, each black-haired. No matter how far back Ned searched in the brittle yellowed pages, always he found the gold yielding before the coal.

It's been 90 years since a Lannister-Baratheon marriage, and neither of these two examples include a male heir of either house. (Presumably Ned would not refer to the heir as "a male Lannister" in his mind, though it can't be entirely ruled out). 

Other than these I can't easily think of great house marriages not involving House Targaryen. I'll have to skim the World Book. 

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

There's every single example Ned finds of Baratheon/Lannister marriages yielding black-haired children, leading him to understand the phrase "the seed is strong."

While we have to assume their were some Lannister to Baratheon marriages for Ned to have found, we don't actually have examples.  And I would not count cadet branches far removed from the head of the House as this sort of marriage.

 Before the rebellion, we have Tywin refuse to betroth Princess Elia Martell to Jaime and offer Tyrion.  We have Brandon, then Ned betrothed to Catelyn.   We have Jon Arryn marry Lisa Tully.  We have Robert marry Cersei.  Only House Tyrell isn't involved in these sort of marriages.  If we look at the Lords of the 7 Kingdoms and their children, well over half at least discussed a betrothal with another Great House. 

Going a generation before the rebellion and further back, these marriages are either rare or nonexistent.  They are easily less than one percent of the hundreds of marriages listed in the various family trees in the Great Houses.

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3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Going a generation before the rebellion and further back, these marriages are either rare or nonexistent.  They are easily less than one percent of the hundreds of marriages listed in the various family trees in the Great Houses.

OK.  Show me the heirs of the Baratheon family tree going back to Aegon the Conqueror, and we'll go over all those marriages of all those heirs.  Or hey, if you can't do that, just tell me who Lyonel's wife was.  Or if you can't do that either, never mind the Baratheons.  List the Tyrell heirs, going back to Aegon I.   Or if not them, the Martells. 

We just don't know who married whom, beyond a few decades backwards in time... even for a relatively new house like Baratheon.  

We certainly haven't got a clue going back thousands of years in cases like House Stark and House Lannister.   So if you want to demonstrate "these marriages are rare to nonexistent," it will be essential to get GRRM to pony up the info.

 

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