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5 hours ago, bent branch said:

Did I say there couldn't be any future twists?

Did I say you had said that?

5 hours ago, bent branch said:

I just re-read what I wrote and I do believe you are putting words in my mouth.

Back at you buddy.  Re-read what I wrote, and you will see that I never ascribed any words to you at all.

5 hours ago, bent branch said:

I am often accused of getting pissed off because people don't agree with me, but what really pisses me off is how my words are twisted.

In this case you are pissed because you agree with what I said.

5 hours ago, bent branch said:

What I said was that GRRM called Aegon "Aegon VI" because that is how he is being represented in the story at this time. For GRRM to act like he is potentially someone else would be the real spoiler. Whether it is just the current state of the reveal or not has yet to be determined.

I agree with you.

5 hours ago, bent branch said:

If GRRM never openly reveals Aegon to be fake, then the current understanding of who he is stands.

Assuming he finishes the books, sure.

5 hours ago, bent branch said:

I actually believe there is some evidence in the text which suggests Aegon is fake. Not the long list of out of context quotes usually cited, but there is some. I think there is enough of a possibility that Aegon is fake that I would never make a bet against it. (Although I think the whole Serra thing is bogus.) It seems to me that it is people who push the Aegon is fake narrative that can't stand any suggestion that it may be wrong.

All points and arguments, whether good or bad, retain the same value they had before.  GRRM has not confirmed or denied anything, as we both seem to agree.

For the record, I think Baby Aegon is alive, but Young Griff is not Baby Aegon.  I think Serra is Young Griff's grandmother, and Septa Lemore's mother.

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35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure. But he could have just as well have written 'Young Griff' or 'Prince Aegon', no? That he did not do this could be a hint that he is a point in the books where calling 'the lad' 'Aegon VI' comes naturally to him because he is already sitting the Iron Throne.

You think the 6th book will end with him sitting in the throne?

 

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

And this could mean, that there will be an epidemy of greyscale amongst followers of fAegon - "And the first went, and poured out his vial upon the earth; and there fell a noisome and grievous sore upon the men which had the mark of the beast, and upon them which worshipped his image." - Revelation 16:2.

That would fit nicely with a theory about patchface and the chance he'll infect people with greyscale.

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Aegon or FAegon, whatever one believes will lay claim, he really already has. I do forsee that he will be the one who will take the throne from The Lannisters and drive them back to the Rock possibly and he will have a Beautiful Qeen by his side to fulful the prophecy by Maggie the Frog in regards to Cersei. However, he will probably not hold it for long.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Aegon or FAegon, whatever one believes will lay claim

Power resides where men believe it resides.

Edited by Ser Loras The Gay

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18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I made a case in the thread on George's blog post that this is indeed a spoiler, either to Aegon officially becoming a pretender to the Iron Throne and being thus called 'King Aegon VI Targaryen' by his own followers and sycophants (which isn't the case yet, they still style him 'prince' and only made plans for him to wash his hair and declare himself after they had taken Storm's End) or that he is actually going to sit the Iron Throne as the crowned and anointed King Aegon VI Targaryen.

 

I wouldn't really consider as a spoiler. Pretty much everybody has guessed he is going to sit in the IT one day. Even if GRRM confirmed R+L=J, it would hardly come as a surprise. I'm actually more interested in the journeys rather the endpoints.

As you said. Is he going to make his claim at Storm's End or wait until he takes KL? What will be the outcome of the battles? Which kind of difficulties will he have in his way to the throne and which ones once he sits there?  When Dany will learn about him? What the rest of Westeros (in particular Stannis) will make of his claim? Etc, etc.

I have some ideas about some of these... but I'm not writing the books.

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12 minutes ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

Power resides where men believe it resides.

From a certain point of view, yes but in the books there is still honor and duty to Righteous claims and causes no matter the perceived power not in their favor.

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2 hours ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

You think the 6th book will end with him sitting in the throne?

Sure, hopefully not just the end but rather the middle of the book. Things in KL should unravel very quickly now.

All that stuff about Cersei keeping the Red Keep and Aegon not securing the Iron Throne before he goes, perhaps, on other campaigns to pacify his Realm were always not very believable. Cersei can come eventually back to KL as Euron's wife and queen but that's not something for TWoW but rather for a later book - ADoS, or even the one after that considering it is pretty much insane to assume this series could be wrapped up in just two more books. It would look more silly than the TV show if George tried to do that.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I wouldn't really consider as a spoiler. Pretty much everybody has guessed he is going to sit in the IT one day. Even if GRRM confirmed R+L=J, it would hardly come as a surprise. I'm actually more interested in the journeys rather the endpoints.

Some people assumed this to be the case - and the number of those steadily increased over the years but if you go back to read discussions immediately after ADwD then people really downplayed the whole Aegon plot. As I point out in the other thread Ran and Linda both entertained ideas back then that Aegon might actually be killed during the attack on Storm's End (based on his rather cocksure attitude as well as the fact that his claim that 'he is the only dragon the Golden Company will need' always sounded rather ominous - even more so after it turned out in TWoIaF that Daeron I used a similar phrase).

Right now I'd say the consensus among readers seems to be indeed that Aegon will rule (vast portions of) Westeros as King Aegon VI for a time but this wasn't always the case. And anything from George pointing us in that direction is significant.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

As you said. Is he going to make his claim at Storm's End or wait until he takes KL? What will be the outcome of the battles? Which kind of difficulties will he have in his way to the throne and which ones once he sits there?  When Dany will learn about him? What the rest of Westeros (in particular Stannis) will make of his claim? Etc, etc.

Regardless where he is proclaimed/crowned/anointed king we now do have implicit confirmation that this happens. Prior to that there was still a chance that Aegon might die at Storm's End before he could wash his hair and declare himself or he could be killed by the victorious Tyrell army. Both seems more unlikely right now than it was before George's post.

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Only kings have kingsguards. Aegon names Duck to his Kingsguard in ADwD. He is styling himself Aegon VI. This is his style regardless of whether he ever sits his arse on the Iron Throne. It is, again, not a spoiler.

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17 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As I point out in the other thread Ran and Linda both entertained ideas back then that Aegon might actually be killed during the attack on Storm's End (based on his rather cocksure attitude as well as the fact that his claim that 'he is the only dragon the Golden Company will need' always sounded rather ominous - even more so after it turned out in TWoIaF that Daeron I used a similar phrase).

Well, indeed, we know that they took Storm's End and that a Tyrell army is descending upon them and that "Prince Aegon means to smash his enemies in the field." That sounds pretty ominous. Instead of trusting the command to an experienced leader (JonCon), Aegon apparently wants to lead these forces. Pretty sure, something will go awry. Not necessarily dead, but maybe wounded, but more importantly for the plot, defeated and besieged.

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Ran said:

Only kings have kingsguards. Aegon names Duck to his Kingsguard in ADwD. He is styling himself Aegon VI. This is his style regardless of whether he ever sits his arse on the Iron Throne. It is, again, not a spoiler.

That, or Prince Aegon is getting presumptuous by starting to create a Kingsguard while he isn't a king yet. Go back to 'The Griffin Reborn'. Nobody refers to Aegon as the king despite the fact that he has one Kingsguard already. In Arianne 1 Connington styles himself 'Hand of the True King' in his letter to Prince Doran but that's an empty title at this point - and he does not refer to Aegon as 'King Aegon VI' yet.

By the way - what we can draw from that practice actually is that Aegon is not going to take on any of the established KG. He will deal with them the way Jaehaerys I dealt with Maegor's KG (unless he pardons Jaime), choosing his own men rather than to accept the allegiance of the Lannister pets or even give those goons the honor of treating them as proper KG.

19 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, indeed, we know that they took Storm's End and that a Tyrell army is descending upon them and that "Prince Aegon means to smash his enemies in the field." That sounds pretty ominous. Instead of trusting the command to an experienced leader (JonCon), Aegon apparently wants to lead these forces. Pretty sure, something will go awry. Not necessarily dead, but maybe wounded, but more importantly for the plot, defeated and besieged.

Ah, well, what's true of all that talk we don't no yet, anyway. After all, Maar and Haldon don't necessarily tell the truth.

I really hope that this plot finally takes up speed. And it is one of the few things were George could really have a rotten movement unravel in a matter of seconds. This whole 'Targaryen loyalists' thing has been built up since ACoK at least, and those sentiments are strongest in the Reach. So the way to continue would actually be the Tyrell soldiers refusing to fight Aegon/defecting to his side once they see Mathis Rowan ride beside Aegon. The idea that armies can force their generals to follow their lead has yet to be used in the books, and this would be a great moment to get Aegon on the throne fast.

But then, if things go wrong there are always the elephants and Black Balaq's superior archers.

If Aegon were defeated and besieged he would be dead, basically. Dorne would not declare for the failure, and so would nobody else. If he isn't going to become a victory machine with more success than Robb he is going to accomplish nothing. The criteria to judge whether he is Rhaegar's son or not will be his victory in the field. If loses so much as one battle during his initial campaign for the Iron Throne he will be seen as an impostor. And that also goes for his later campaign against Dany. If he reveals and weakness/incompetence there then people will start to wonder whether he is a Targaryen at all. He is in a much weaker position than even Cersei's children who were at least raised as Robert's children. Aegon just has some foreign eunuch and exiled lord with his own revenge again vouching for him (assuming Varys ever publicly vouches for him).

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2 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

From a certain point of view, yes but in the books there is still honor and duty to Righteous claims and causes no matter the perceived power not in their favor.

But don't you think that these reasons to be appointed "rightful" to something is in itself something that needs to be believed first? Like a social contract ou a social construct? If we got a democratic system in Westeros the "power" resides in the votes, and why people votes resides on what we believe is right. But no matter how we try to spin it. It resides on what we believe or what we think is the right thing.

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

it is pretty much insane to assume this series could be wrapped up in just two more books. It would look more silly than the TV show if George tried to do that.

If you're right (and I think you are) we're never going to see the "true" ending of the series, because if he's not going to die before ADoS he's certain to die before a third or a fourth book. That's no way he can finish if he needs more than 2 books.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, bent branch said:

This isn't a spoiler. After the reveal, Aegon is NEVER presented as anything but the real deal in the books. Some fans believe that Aegon is fake. While they are probably a majority, it is nowhere close to all. People just stop arguing with them because they insist upon interpreting things their own way. Many people also argue that if GRRM never actually reveals Aegon to be fake, then that will mean it remains a "mystery". This statement by GRRM shows that if he doesn't reveal Aegon to be a fake, then he intends the reader to believe that Aegon is precisely who he is represented to be.

Nothing you wrote here is accurate.

1. Through five books, only one character has made the claim that Rhaegar's murdered son Aegon was actually switched, saved, and carried away by Varys: Young Griff.

We can be certain that Young Griff believes this story. We can speculate that supporters like Jon Connington, Lemore, and Haldon believe this story. But Young Griff only believes what he has been told, and none of his aforementioned supporters can be shown to have entered Young Griff's life until he was already a number of years old. None of them can vouch for Young Griff's actual provenance. None of them are witnesses to the claimed story. The entire claimed story rests on the word of Varys, a foreigner who happens to be one of the least trusted and least believed people in Westeros. That does not automatically mean that it is a lie, but the claim that anything in ADWD uncritically presents Young Griff as truly being the murdered son of Rhaegar is utter nonsense.

2. GRRM calling Young Griff by the name Aegon VI does not tell us one way or another whether Young Griff is truly Rhaegar's murdered son.

This is no more and no less than what Jon Connington states Young Griff will soon, with the help of the Golden Company, be:

That time was done, though. "No man could have asked for a worthier son," Griff said, "but the lad is not of my blood, and his name is not Griff. My lords, I give you Aegon Targaryen, firstborn son of Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone, by Princess Elia of Dorne … soon, with your help, to be Aegon, the Sixth of His Name, King of Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and Lord of the Seven Kingdoms."

- ADWD: The Lost Lord

All it tells us is that he is being claimed to be the sixth person named Aegon Targaryen to be king of Westeros. Not the first, not the seventh. The sixth. None of this is anything we didn't already know from ADWD, for instance:

"You. You are unwed. A great lord, still virile, with no heirs except these cousins we have just now dispossessed, the scion of an ancient House with a fine stout castle and wide, rich lands that will no doubt be restored and perhaps expanded by a grateful king, once we have triumphed. You have a name as a warrior, and as King Aegon's Hand you will speak with his voice and rule this realm in all but name. I would think that many an ambitious lord might be eager to wed his daughter to such a man. Even, perhaps, the prince of Dorne."

- ADWD: The Griffin Reborn

And if you've read TWOW chapters, you know that:

Spoiler

Jon Connington is openly styling himself Hand of the True King, meaning they are openly referring to Young Griff as King Aegon VI.

 

Edited by Bael's Bastard

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, bent branch said:

Let me try to state this in another way. At this point in time, GRRM has presented Aegon as the real thing in the books. The hints you think you see may or may not be real. GRRM may or may not in the future reveal Aegon to be a fake, Blackfyre or not. But for GRRM to call Aegon anything but Aegon VI at this time would be the spoiler. 

No, GRRM has not presented Young Griff as really being Rhaegar's murdered son in the books. For GRRM to call him Aegon VI is completely in line with the story in ADWD, in which Young Griff and his supporters are invading Westeros in order to put him on the throne as the next Aegon Targaryen, which would be the Sixth of his name, as Jon Connington explicitly states to the Golden Company in ADWD: The Lost Lord. That in no way vouches for the claimed backstory of Young Griff being Rhaegar's murdered son.

Edited by Bael's Bastard

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If Aegon were defeated and besieged he would be dead, basically. Dorne would not declare for the failure, and so would nobody else. If he isn't going to become a victory machine with more success than Robb he is going to accomplish nothing. The criteria to judge whether he is Rhaegar's son or not will be his victory in the field. If loses so much as one battle during his initial campaign for the Iron Throne he will be seen as an impostor. And that also goes for his later campaign against Dany. If he reveals and weakness/incompetence there then people will start to wonder whether he is a Targaryen at all. He is in a much weaker position than even Cersei's children who were at least raised as Robert's children. Aegon just has some foreign eunuch and exiled lord with his own revenge again vouching for him (assuming Varys ever publicly vouches for him).

Ever heard of Battle of Dobrynichi?

Westeros is not Russia. And Tommen is not Boris Godunov.

But False Dmitry the First actually could, and did, recover from a defeat in battle.

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Posted (edited)

Lannister-Tyrell or now more correctly Tyrell-Lannister alliance still have over 100k large army potentially counting only Westerlands and the Reach. Their enemies Ironborn, Golden Company and potentially Dorne can gather barely half the number. Stannis is stuck in the North and might have to turn back North soon. And Littlefinger is probably waiting in Vale. It is true that Mace Tyrell who is Regent-Hand is pretty dumb but I still can't see his alliance falling easily to Aegon. I guess Lannister Tyrell war would be necessary to bring down Tommen's rule or dragons. 

Edited by Tygett Lannister

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3 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Lannister-Tyrell or now more correctly Tyrell-Lannister alliance still have over 100k large army potentially counting only Westerlands and the Reach. Their enemies Ironborn, Golden Company and potentially Dorne can gather barely half the number. Stannis is stuck in the North and might have to turn back North soon. It is true that Mace Tyrell who is Regent-Hand is pretty dumb but I still can't see his alliance falling easily to Aegon. I guess Lannister Tyrell war would be necessary to bring down Tommen's rule or dragons. 

Mace really isn't that dumb, and I find it difficult to believe that the Tyrells would choose to go down with a sinking Lannister ship. The Tyrell claim to the throne currently relies on Maegaery's marriage to a young boy Tommen who will not be capable of consummating and providing a child for years. It is a flimsy alliance that is unlikely to survive any real difficulty that arises. And AeGriff is going to present a real difficulty. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tyrells personally open the city to AeGriff, and deliver Tommen to him themselves. 

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2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

We can be certain that Young Griff believes this story. We can speculate that supporters like Jon Connington, Lemore, and Haldon believe this story.

That's really funny. If anyone, besides Varys, knows the truth about fAegon's origin, it's Lemore. And, in my opinion, she is fAegon's mother.

If the kid is fake, and his parents are not Elia and Rhaegar, then, obviously, he has a different set of parents. So, someone is his mother, and someone is his father. And for some reason GRRM let readers to know about Lemore's stretch marks. So, in my opinion, it is a hint, that she is the mother.

Her name from Italian (or French?) translates as "the blackberries". In one of Tyrion chapters, him and Cersei were eating swan, and the blackberry tarts, and were talking about Varys. So it's a clue, that septa Lemore, protege of Blackfyres, is Lady Jeyne Swann. Which also means, that, most likely, fAegon's father is Barristan Selmy. 

Barristan is GRRM's parallel to Florian the Fool, and Lemore is a parallel to Lady Jonquil. Which also means, that Lemore is the Perfumed Seneschal. Because Tyrion had mentioned Florian, when him and Jorah were on board of a ship Fragrant Stewart. And in medieval ages jonquil (it's a flower from the same family as daffodil and narcissus) was used as a component for making perfumes. And also narcissuses/jonquils are flowers associated with Mother Mary (on many icons she is portraid with halo of 12 flowers/stars around her head). fAegon is a parallel to Biblical Antichrist, so his mother, Lemore, is a parallel to a fake Mother Mary. While the real "Mother Mary" is Dany, and the real "Jesus" is Rhaego.

Also, based on a slight change in fAegon's behaviour in JonCon's last chapter, the boy already known, who he really is - that he is a Blackfyre.

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58 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Mace really isn't that dumb, and I find it difficult to believe that the Tyrells would choose to go down with a sinking Lannister ship. The Tyrell claim to the throne currently relies on Maegaery's marriage to a young boy Tommen who will not be capable of consummating and providing a child for years. It is a flimsy alliance that is unlikely to survive any real difficulty that arises. And AeGriff is going to present a real difficulty. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tyrells personally open the city to AeGriff, and deliver Tommen to him themselves. 

I mean it is Ollena who has strong influence on him and she isn't dumb. And it is likely Tyrells would look to switch sides again, but Aegon can't exactly marry Arianne and Margery at the same time. 

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1 hour ago, Megorova said:

That's really funny. If anyone, besides Varys, knows the truth about fAegon's origin, it's Lemore. And, in my opinion, she is fAegon's mother.

If the kid is fake, and his parents are not Elia and Rhaegar, then, obviously, he has a different set of parents. So, someone is his mother, and someone is his father. And for some reason GRRM let readers to know about Lemore's stretch marks. So, in my opinion, it is a hint, that she is the mother.

Her name from Italian (or French?) translates as "the blackberries". In one of Tyrion chapters, him and Cersei were eating swan, and the blackberry tarts, and were talking about Varys. So it's a clue, that septa Lemore, protege of Blackfyres, is Lady Jeyne Swann. Which also means, that, most likely, fAegon's father is Barristan Selmy. 

Barristan is GRRM's parallel to Florian the Fool, and Lemore is a parallel to Lady Jonquil. Which also means, that Lemore is the Perfumed Seneschal. Because Tyrion had mentioned Florian, when him and Jorah were on board of a ship Fragrant Stewart. And in medieval ages jonquil (it's a flower from the same family as daffodil and narcissus) was used as a component for making perfumes. And also narcissuses/jonquils are flowers associated with Mother Mary (on many icons she is portraid with halo of 12 flowers/stars around her head). fAegon is a parallel to Biblical Antichrist, so his mother, Lemore, is a parallel to a fake Mother Mary. While the real "Mother Mary" is Dany, and the real "Jesus" is Rhaego.

Also, based on a slight change in fAegon's behaviour in JonCon's last chapter, the boy already known, who he really is - that he is a Blackfyre.

The theories that say Lemore is AeGriff's mother run into some of the same issues as the theories that say Ashara is Lemore. There is simply no hint of Lemore having the sort of blue or purple eyes that AeGriff has., especially when Tyrion makes a point to describe pretty much everyone else of note in AeGriff's little crew. As for the rest, I enjoy considering theories as much as the next person, but this level of tin foil and fan fiction has no appeal to me, sorry.

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1 hour ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I mean it is Ollena who has strong influence on him and she isn't dumb. And it is likely Tyrells would look to switch sides again, but Aegon can't exactly marry Arianne and Margery at the same time. 

Olenna certainly speaks of Mace as if he is an idiot, and it isn't inconceivable that she actually believes that. But I suspect that they perpetuate this idea because they have found it to work to their benefit for Mace to be underestimated.

Whatever the case, by the end of ADWD:

Mace is father-in-law and Hand of the King.

His bannerman Randyll Tarley is Master of Laws.

His bannerman Paxter Redwyne is Master of Ships.

His uncle Garth had been invited by Tywin to become Master of Coin, only for Cersei to rush to appoint Gyles Rosby then Harrys Swyft. By the end of ADWD, Mace is again trying to get Garth appointed to the position.

His uncle Gormon was chosen by the Conclave to replace Pycelle as Grand Maester, leading Tywin to raise Pycelle back to the position. However, by the end of ADWD Pycelle is dead.

He also has some amount of his army with him in King's Landing, and if I recall correctly he has infused the Gold Cloaks with some number of Reach men.

And while Margaery and Tommen had a wedding ceremony, there is no question that the marriage has not been consummated, and will not be consummated for a number of years.

If AeGriff is already wed to Arianne by then, they may be willing to accept Margaery being a second wife, or perhaps some other reward. Or maybe that will be enough for them to choose to go down fighting on the side of the Lannisters. But I think the Tyrells will be looking to jump ship.

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