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1 hour ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I mean it is Ollena who has strong influence on him and she isn't dumb. And it is likely Tyrells would look to switch sides again, but Aegon can't exactly marry Arianne and Margery at the same time. 

Well Aegon doesn’t have to marry Arianne because she is his cousin and will most likely pledge to him after hearing of Quentyn’s death. In this scenario I think there is a chance that Aegon can marry Margery.

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4 hours ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

If you're right (and I think you are) we're never going to see the "true" ending of the series, because if he's not going to die before ADoS he's certain to die before a third or a fourth book. That's no way he can finish if he needs more than 2 books.

I'd agree with that. And quite honestly, if the travesty even remotely resembles George's planned ending I don't want to get that...

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Nothing you wrote here is accurate.

1. Through five books, only one character has made the claim that Rhaegar's murdered son Aegon was actually switched, saved, and carried away by Varys: Young Griff.

We can be certain that Young Griff believes this story.

We can assume this, but we don't know. Aegon lived with Illyrio Mopatis and, possibly, his wife Serra how long exactly? 3-4 years? How often did they visit Illyrio after that? We don't know. We don't know what the bright lad knows or suspects. He could well tell Tyrion a lie (that he is Rhaegar's son) after a lie (that his name is 'Young Griff').

3 hours ago, Jaak said:

Ever heard of Battle of Dobrynichi?

Westeros is not Russia. And Tommen is not Boris Godunov.

But False Dmitry the First actually could, and did, recover from a defeat in battle.

But Aegon would not. Tommen is a boy king and in a weak position right now, but he is surrounded by powerful men who certainly could stay loyal to him. If Tarly were to clean up the mess in the High Septon, and mount the head of 'His High Holiness' above the gates of KL, followed by crushing the Golden Company and Aegon's pitiful Stormlanders in battle Harry Strickland would gladly sell Connington and 'Aegon' to King Tommen in exchange for his miserable hide. Just as Arianne would wish them all the luck in the world, send a raven to the Dornishmen in the mountains (to stay at home, of course), and jump a ship back to Dorne.

Aegon is not Viserys III or Daenerys. People think he is dead. They won't buy he is alive because there is a boy who claims he is Aegon but continues to lose battle after battle. Aegon is not claiming to be some Romanov who was incarcerated his entire life in some fortress. He is claiming to be a dead infant prince whose manner of death is known to pretty everybody in the Realm. People need a strong incentive to buy his story. And success in the field is what he needs. He has to present himself the way Jaehaerys I presented himself after his uncle's death. He has to seduce and bedazzle them all. But he has no dragons. He has to do it with victories.

He can crack and crumble once he sits the Iron Throne, but not before. He shows any weakness before he has the throne the men around him will abandon and betray him. 

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2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Mace really isn't that dumb, and I find it difficult to believe that the Tyrells would choose to go down with a sinking Lannister ship. The Tyrell claim to the throne currently relies on Maegaery's marriage to a young boy Tommen who will not be capable of consummating and providing a child for years. It is a flimsy alliance that is unlikely to survive any real difficulty that arises. And AeGriff is going to present a real difficulty. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tyrells personally open the city to AeGriff, and deliver Tommen to him themselves. 

I don't know. While the Tyrells are probably correct to be regarded as schemers and untrustworty, they don't strike me as cowards. And they did join their strength to the Lannisters when the Lannister ship was looking anything but strong in the first place.

The main problem I have with the "sinking ship" example is that it is based on that there would be no incentive for the Tyrells to stay and fight with their massive army, not to mention that they have a very strong hold over the small council last I checked. A dead Margaerys will certainly sour the Tyrells on Cersei, and perhaps the Lannisters in general, and the High Sparrow. But I would expect them, who raised a rebellion with Renly and joined with the Lannisters against Stannis and Robb, not to get scared before a blow has been struck, clear the house out for Aegon and then let the Targaryens and Martells march in to claim all the rewards and which Aegon, maybe after giving them some worthless scraps, sends the Tyrells back where they came, and tell them to stay there or else. I am utterly convinced that unless something drastic happens beyond that the Lannisters are weakened, the Tyrells will just give up and go home after having finally secure their prize with dominance at court and a puppet king. It don't make sense with the ambitions they've displayed so far in the series.

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10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

He also has some amount of his army with him in King's Landing, and if I recall correctly he has infused the Gold Cloaks with some number of Reach men.

Mace should have 30,000-40,000 men with him in KL, minus whatever men are left with Rowan at Storm's End. Garlan took only have of the Reach troops back with him to Highgarden, so it depends how high we think the Reach part of Renly's original army was (plus the 10,000 Tyrell Mace had kept as a reserve in Highgarden back in ACoK).

That should be more than enough to make short work of the Golden Company if they throw all those men against them. Which they might not if the situation in the city is tensed. But they would also have enough men to sack KL and butcher all the sparrows. It would be bloody work, sure, but they have the numbers and they are already in the city. If they did that and defeated the Golden Company King Tommen's crown would be secure until Euron or Stannis or Dany come knocking.

The deciding question is whether the Reach men with Mace and Tarly will be willing to fight a self-proclaimed Targaryen pretender. And, if they do, how successful that enterprise is going to be. The Golden Company certainly could defeat an army thrive or even four times their number if the enemy only fights half-heartedly and/or if they use their assets - elephants, superior archers, and their professional soldiers - strategically.

One could see easily enough see some version of the Battle of the Kingsroad taking place in the Kingswood. Tarly is a good soldier, but one assumes he has never faced elephants.

If the Tyrells suffer a defeat in that battle then chances are very high that Mace himself is going to hand over KL and Tommen to Aegon. He was a Targaryen loyalist during the Rebellion, after all. He can easily make peace with him. And he would gladly cut his ties with the Lannister if the Margaery situation gets worse. Cersei is to be blamed for all that. The only thing keeping Mace in camp Tommen right now is the prospect that Margaery gets acquitted. If that doesn't happen or gets complicated chances are not that great that Mace will a King Tommen isn't exactly of much use to him.

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If AeGriff is already wed to Arianne by then, they may be willing to accept Margaery being a second wife, or perhaps some other reward. Or maybe that will be enough for them to choose to go down fighting on the side of the Lannisters. But I think the Tyrells will be looking to jump ship.

A second wife for Aegon seems to be impossible before he is crowned and anointed - and even afterwards it should be pretty much impossible with the newfound power of the Faith. I can eventually see Sansa in such a position but never Margaery - especially since the latter stands accused of improper behavior. Even if she were acquitted the High Septon would likely never make an exception for her.

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20 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

I don't know. While the Tyrells are probably correct to be regarded as schemers and untrustworty, they don't strike me as cowards. And they did join their strength to the Lannisters when the Lannister ship was looking anything but strong in the first place.

The main problem I have with the "sinking ship" example is that it is based on that there would be no incentive for the Tyrells to stay and fight with their massive army, not to mention that they have a very strong hold over the small council last I checked. A dead Margaerys will certainly sour the Tyrells on Cersei, and perhaps the Lannisters in general, and the High Sparrow. But I would expect them, who raised a rebellion with Renly and joined with the Lannisters against Stannis and Robb, not to get scared before a blow has been struck, clear the house out for Aegon and then let the Targaryens and Martells march in to claim all the rewards and which Aegon, maybe after giving them some worthless scraps, sends the Tyrells back where they came, and tell them to stay there or else. I am utterly convinced that unless something drastic happens beyond that the Lannisters are weakened, the Tyrells will just give up and go home after having finally secure their prize with dominance at court and a puppet king. It don't make sense with the ambitions they've displayed so far in the series.

There has to be some sort of blow severing their ties with Tommen, of course.

If things go good for them Mace himself will realize when that blow came and he will lead his house in camp Aegon. If not, if he dies in battle, is executed, or captured by Aegon then (Lord) Willas will lead the Reach to Aegon. The Tyrells' greatest advantage at this point is that the heir to Highgarden was not involved in any way in the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath, meaning there is no bad blood between him and the other people, nor are there any conflicting loyalties.

The Tyrells are far too smart. They will start hedge their bets as soon as they realize that a considerable number of Reach lord side with Aegon - which could be, after he declares himself at Storm's End (i.e. before the battle between the Golden Company and the Tyrell army at KL), houses like the Rowans (Lord Mathis only needs a nudge), Peakes, Merryweathers, and some others. The lands of the latter are close to the Stormlands, meaning they could actually send levies to Storm's End rather quickly (no idea whether they would arrive in time for the battle against the Tyrells, of course).

If the battle is not a victory for House Tyrell, then they should jump ship again, making themselves the leaders of the new pro-Targaryen movement in the Reach rather than risk that others lead that movement. That would endanger their position as lords of the Reach.

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46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If things go good for them Mace himself will realize when that blow came and he will lead his house in camp Aegon. If not, if he dies in battle, is executed, or captured by Aegon then (Lord) Willas will lead the Reach to Aegon. The Tyrells' greatest advantage at this point is that the heir to Highgarden was not involved in any way in the War of the Five Kings and its aftermath, meaning there is no bad blood between him and the other people, nor are there any conflicting loyalties.

 

GRRM in latest post specifically mentioned Garlan but not Loras and Willas. I am dying to know what later developments in WoW make him more important.

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Posted (edited)

Something I wrote on LotR/ASoIaF parallels, a portion of it is relevant to this topic:

EDIT: A portion in question:

One particular point, which inspired me to write this to begin with, are parallels between Aegon VI / Aegon Blackfyre(?) and Aragorn. Discussed more here, but both of them had been raised and given education necessary to be ideal kings. What Illyrio says of Aegon - "shaped for rule", "knows that kingship is his duty", and has been living as a commoner for long stretches of time - all apply to Aragorn as well. Aragorn had been educated in Rivendell, but also spent a long time as a "mere" Ranger; Aegon was likewise educated for a ruler, but spent a long time as a commoner. But unlike Aragorn, in all likelihood Aegon is not the rightful king of Westeros; rather he is "stealing the thunder" from Jon and Daenerys. Even so, much like Aragorn has Narsil, so does Aegon have Blackfyre, ancestral sword of Targaryen royal house. Meanwhile, Euron Greyjoy is a Sauron or maybe Saruman parallel: he dabbles in sorcery, leads people who are apart from common run of mankind (Dunlendings / Ironborn) which live segregated from their cousins (Rohirrim / Westerosi), and even has a "dark and a terrible eye". All four characters come into story from essentially nowhere (except no, not really). Both Aragorn and Aegon had been raised as deus ex machinae, set to take the throne when required for salvation of the Middle Earth / Westeros. Meanwhile, Aegon and Euron both invade Westeros when it is ripe for conquest, both plan to marry Daenerys, and are invading the same places. Essentially, it is a mummer's show.

Edited by Aldarion

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6 hours ago, Ser Loras The Gay said:

But don't you think that these reasons to be appointed "rightful" to something is in itself something that needs to be believed first? Like a social contract ou a social construct? If we got a democratic system in Westeros the "power" resides in the votes, and why people votes resides on what we believe is right. But no matter how we try to spin it. It resides on what we believe or what we think is the right thing.

 

 

We are a long way from a Democratic process in Westeros. Perhaps it will come down to, like it has in the past, A Great Council to determine who is the King or Queen but with Dragons, and armies at play, I doubt the fighting parties, whether they are currently engaged or about to be, are going to defer to such a body. As to the social Construct, that is iffy as Aerys The Mad King was King, no question and Rheagar was the heir but their murders of Richard and Brandon Stark, the Westeros-Wide view that Rheagar kidnapped Lyanna, the murder of Jon Arryn's heir and other highborns from The North pretty much destroyed the Social Contract for almost all from those Regions alone. Then, calling for Ned and Robert's heads was pretty much it. They had to be removed for they were Tyranical, unstable and no one could trust them to be fair and just. It is a thin line but it happens.

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32 minutes ago, Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn said:

GRRM in latest post specifically mentioned Garlan but not Loras and Willas. I am dying to know what later developments in WoW make him more important.

He specifically mentioned characters that never showed up in the show. Loras did show up in the show.

Garlan did already show up in the books; Willas has yet to appear there, but we already do know that he is going to become important since George has said that long ago.

But Garlan is undoubtedly going to become a rather important character as well. He is one of the greatest warriors of his generation, after all - and, if he was indeed the guy to put the Strangler into the chalice (since Olenna seems to have been too small to do that unless she actually threw the thing), also one of the greatest actors Westeros has ever had...

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Garlan is undoubtedly going to become a rather important character as well. He is one of the greatest warriors of his generation, after all - and, if he was indeed the guy to put the Strangler into the chalice (since Olenna seems to have been too small to do that unless she actually threw the thing), also one of the greatest actors Westeros has ever had...

I still think it was the pie, but it really makes us wonder who else is going to be a big actor in the later books. Maybe we'll see some of the Doran's plan in action with his daughter and something.

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11 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

I don't know. While the Tyrells are probably correct to be regarded as schemers and untrustworty, they don't strike me as cowards. And they did join their strength to the Lannisters when the Lannister ship was looking anything but strong in the first place.

The main problem I have with the "sinking ship" example is that it is based on that there would be no incentive for the Tyrells to stay and fight with their massive army, not to mention that they have a very strong hold over the small council last I checked. A dead Margaerys will certainly sour the Tyrells on Cersei, and perhaps the Lannisters in general, and the High Sparrow. But I would expect them, who raised a rebellion with Renly and joined with the Lannisters against Stannis and Robb, not to get scared before a blow has been struck, clear the house out for Aegon and then let the Targaryens and Martells march in to claim all the rewards and which Aegon, maybe after giving them some worthless scraps, sends the Tyrells back where they came, and tell them to stay there or else. I am utterly convinced that unless something drastic happens beyond that the Lannisters are weakened, the Tyrells will just give up and go home after having finally secure their prize with dominance at court and a puppet king. It don't make sense with the ambitions they've displayed so far in the series.

Generally speaking the Tyrells are just fine the way they are. They more or less have everything. 

The same actually applies to the High Septon. After all it is Tommen's law that allowed the Faith to rearm. If they care for legitimacy at all, they want Tommen on the Throne.

The thing that would blow this whole thing apart is Tommen's death. Which is where I think Tyene Sand comes in. 

Arianne pledges Dorne's support to Aegon in exchange for her becoming his queen. Tyene having infiltrated the Faith, gains access to Maegor's holdfast by joining the Septa's attending Cersei and poisons Tommen. 

This leaves the Tyrells very high and dry. Unless they want to crown Margaery as queen regnant, they would need to either support Stannis or Myrcela. Things basically fall apart for them and I wouldn't care to venture as to what they would do in such a case. 

The High Septon can and I think will join Aegon's side. He can provide the legitimacy Aegon desperately needs so he can keep what he gained from Tommen and more. I think there are decent odds he will be part of Aegon's Council.

I think these developments have been set up. Cersei's trial is hard to predict. It is a bit of a farcical affair, as the High Septon, regardless to how much he bares his teeth at the regime, he cannot afford to actually have it overthrown as his new found status depends on it. Likewise, the Tyrells despite how much they hate Cersei and want her out of the way they can't afford to have Tommen's paternity come into question. If the Tyrells and the high Septon were in tandem they could use this as an opportunity to force Cersei out of public life for good, but as the church laid hands on Margaery, any collaboration between them is out of the question. 

Margaery herself is a bit of a dark horse. She is rarely a part of the discussion about the potential developments, which I think is a mistake as she is the only one in position to hold the alliance together. 

I do think Aegon is set up to sit on the throne, but it still requires a bit of doing. And child murder. 

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16 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

There is simply no hint of Lemore having the sort of blue or purple eyes that AeGriff has., especially when Tyrion makes a point to describe pretty much everyone else of note in AeGriff's little crew.

What if fAegon inherited his eye-color from his father, Barristan Selmy? It's possible, that Barristan is a dragonseed, and that he is a grandson of Aenys Blackfyre (this I'm basing on his biography and the history of Blackfyre Rebellions). Real Aegon got his eye-color from his father, while his sister Rhaenys had the same eye-color as their mother Elia - brown. So even if Lemore has brown eyes, and fAegon has blue, it's still possible, that his father is Barristan. Those three even repeat the same coloring pattern as real Aegon, Elia and Rhaegar.

16 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The theories that say Lemore is AeGriff's mother run into some of the same issues as the theories that say Ashara is Lemore.

Ashara is in her 30s, and Lemore is in her 40s, so they are obviously not the same person.

16 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

As for the rest, I enjoy considering theories as much as the next person, but this level of tin foil and fan fiction has no appeal to me, sorry.

Unless Illyrio and Serra were fAegon's parents, then someone else is his parents. And Lemore/Jeyne Swann and Barristan Selmy is one of possibilities.

Do you think that fAegon is a mummer's dragon?

There was a scene in The Hedge Knight:

"The fat Dornishwoman was on the ground weeping.

One man-at-arms was dangling the puppets of Florian and Jonquil from his hands as another set them afire with a torch. Three more men were opening chests, spilling more puppets on the ground and stamping on them. The dragon puppet was scattered all about them, a broken wing here, its head there, its tail in three pieces."

GRRM is using Dunk&Egg novels to give foreshadowings, about what will happen in the main series (such as appearance of Bloodraven, Shiera Seastar (Quaithe's real identity), etc.) So that scene could be describing fAegon's death - he is a toy-dragon, Barristan and Lemore are going to be burned like Florian and Jonquil, and while this will be happening, pregnant Arianne Martell (fAegon's wife) will be weeping on the ground.

You may think, that this is tin foil and fan fiction, but it doesn't mean, that my theory is wrong. I could be right. There's a lot of clues in the books, that support my theory.

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16 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Olenna certainly speaks of Mace as if he is an idiot, and it isn't inconceivable that she actually believes that. But I suspect that they perpetuate this idea because they have found it to work to their benefit for Mace to be underestimated.

Whatever the case, by the end of ADWD:

Mace is father-in-law and Hand of the King.

His bannerman Randyll Tarley is Master of Laws.

His bannerman Paxter Redwyne is Master of Ships.

His uncle Garth had been invited by Tywin to become Master of Coin, only for Cersei to rush to appoint Gyles Rosby then Harrys Swyft. By the end of ADWD, Mace is again trying to get Garth appointed to the position.

His uncle Gormon was chosen by the Conclave to replace Pycelle as Grand Maester, leading Tywin to raise Pycelle back to the position. However, by the end of ADWD Pycelle is dead.

He also has some amount of his army with him in King's Landing, and if I recall correctly he has infused the Gold Cloaks with some number of Reach men.

And while Margaery and Tommen had a wedding ceremony, there is no question that the marriage has not been consummated, and will not be consummated for a number of years.

If AeGriff is already wed to Arianne by then, they may be willing to accept Margaery being a second wife, or perhaps some other reward. Or maybe that will be enough for them to choose to go down fighting on the side of the Lannisters. But I think the Tyrells will be looking to jump ship.

How does he marry two wives when he needs support of the Faith (High Sparrow)? 

 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Crona said:

Well Aegon doesn’t have to marry Arianne because she is his cousin and will most likely pledge to him after hearing of Quentyn’s death. In this scenario I think there is a chance that Aegon can marry Margery.

Well Mace doesn't knows about Ollena's doing in murder of Joffrey (if Lord Baelish is to be trusted and it wasn't him trying to poison Tyrion with the pie). Since he wants Tyrion dead because Margery drank from the same cup. Margery definitely knew about it. 

Well it is possible Dorne just joins for sake of Aegon being Elia's son. And Tyrells proclaim Tommen a bastard and on that basis demand annulment and join Aegon true heir that they would be supporting all along if they knew was alive (supposedly). 

Edited by Tygett Lannister

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38 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:
42 minutes ago, Megorova said:

What if fAegon inherited his eye-color from his father, Barristan Selmy?

Aaaaand you lost me.

Probably, I phrased it incorrectly (English is my 4th language, and I'm still learning). What I meant, is that it doesn't matter what is Lemore's eye-color, even if she is fAegon's mother. Because the child can "inherite" his/her eyes and hair color from one parent, or from the other (or even from one of grandparents). Like nearly all children of Ned Stark have auburn hair and blue eyes, like Catelyn's; Aegon's sister, Rhaenys, had the same coloring as their mother Elia, while real Aegon looked more like his father - "blue"-eyed "blond".

So if, for example, septa Lemore has brown eyes and brown hair, and she is fAegon's mother, and Barristan Selmy, who is (possibly) fAegon's father, has blue eyes and, when he was younger, his hair was "blond" (i.e. Valyrian silver-gold), then fAegon coul have got his coloring from his father (Barristan, not Rhaegar), so it doesn't matter what is Lemore's coloring.

So, even if Lemore doesn't have violet or purple eyes, it doesn't mean, that she can't be fAegon's mother.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Generally speaking the Tyrells are just fine the way they are. They more or less have everything. 

The same actually applies to the High Septon. After all it is Tommen's law that allowed the Faith to rearm. If they care for legitimacy at all, they want Tommen on the Throne.

The thing that would blow this whole thing apart is Tommen's death. Which is where I think Tyene Sand comes in. 

Arianne pledges Dorne's support to Aegon in exchange for her becoming his queen. Tyene having infiltrated the Faith, gains access to Maegor's holdfast by joining the Septa's attending Cersei and poisons Tommen. 

This leaves the Tyrells very high and dry. Unless they want to crown Margaery as queen regnant, they would need to either support Stannis or Myrcela. Things basically fall apart for them and I wouldn't care to venture as to what they would do in such a case. 

The High Septon can and I think will join Aegon's side. He can provide the legitimacy Aegon desperately needs so he can keep what he gained from Tommen and more. I think there are decent odds he will be part of Aegon's Council.

I think these developments have been set up. Cersei's trial is hard to predict. It is a bit of a farcical affair, as the High Septon, regardless to how much he bares his teeth at the regime, he cannot afford to actually have it overthrown as his new found status depends on it. Likewise, the Tyrells despite how much they hate Cersei and want her out of the way they can't afford to have Tommen's paternity come into question. If the Tyrells and the high Septon were in tandem they could use this as an opportunity to force Cersei out of public life for good, but as the church laid hands on Margaery, any collaboration between them is out of the question. 

Margaery herself is a bit of a dark horse. She is rarely a part of the discussion about the potential developments, which I think is a mistake as she is the only one in position to hold the alliance together. 

I do think Aegon is set up to sit on the throne, but it still requires a bit of doing. And child murder. 

Would Doran actually order a murder of Tommen though? Seems out of character and thematically incorrect. 

Edited by Tygett Lannister

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4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The same actually applies to the High Septon. After all it is Tommen's law that allowed the Faith to rearm. If they care for legitimacy at all, they want Tommen on the Throne.

Not really. Tommen did rubber-stamp the overturning of Maegor's laws, but the sparrows and High Septon already had reformed the Poor Fellows before that happened - there are Poor Fellows among the sparrows during Cersei's first visit in the Great Sept.

Not facing opposition from the Crown while the Faith properly rearm themselves is an advantage, but there are very strong hints that the sparrows continue to despise the boy king born of incest and adultery, never mind that he actually helped.

And once the Faith actually has the power base it has right now they no longer need the king who helped them acquire it. If they respected Tommen or Cersei they would have never dared to arrest and try both Margaery and Cersei, no?

4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The thing that would blow this whole thing apart is Tommen's death. Which is where I think Tyene Sand comes in. 

Arianne pledges Dorne's support to Aegon in exchange for her becoming his queen. Tyene having infiltrated the Faith, gains access to Maegor's holdfast by joining the Septa's attending Cersei and poisons Tommen. 

Tyene could play a crucial role in the destruction of Margaery if it ever comes to a proper trial for her because I think chances are very good that she will be one of the judges. Although she could also turn the table there and demand a high price from the Tyrells for acquitting her.

But I think the more crucial event is Cersei's trial-by-combat. It is supposed to happen first, and if the double murder doesn't change the schedule (which it definitely could) then Ser Robert should make short work of the Faith's champion and whoever else dares to accuse Cersei.

While this looks like an easy win for Cersei, there is the fact to consider that Ser Robert Strong is actually Ser Gregor Clegane and, most likely, some undead monster. What do you think the High Septon would do if he were to find out what kind of creature just butchered the champion of the Seven? Does anybody think this man is going to accept that an abomination created by black magic helps to rig a judgment of the gods?!

I don't think so. Which means chances are very high that Cersei is going to be declared guilty of all her crimes, resulting in Tommen and Myrcella being declared bastards as well. With Qyburn's and Ser Robert's help Cersei should be able to escape and her children might die in that process, too. If Lady Nym actually comes to court (and does not drop off Myrcella at Storm's End because she is captured by the Golden Company) one could see her cutting Myrcella's throat once she realizes that Cersei lied and Gregor Clegane is not dead. That could make her snap.

Tommen's death certainly could also sever the ties between the Lannisters and Tyrells, but the trial-by-combat is likely going to come first, so that could do that trick as well. If Tommen and Myrcella were declared bastards then Mace simply wouldn't have a king left to support. His only choice would be to join Aegon - or crown some other guy with even a weaker claim. But there is nobody around as far as we know.

4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

This leaves the Tyrells very high and dry. Unless they want to crown Margaery as queen regnant, they would need to either support Stannis or Myrcela. Things basically fall apart for them and I wouldn't care to venture as to what they would do in such a case.

If Tommen is just dead they would certainly jump on the Myrcella chance. Kevan already suspects they want to marry Willas to Myrcella in the Epilogue. So that would be an option if Myrcella makes it back to KL.

4 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The High Septon can and I think will join Aegon's side. He can provide the legitimacy Aegon desperately needs so he can keep what he gained from Tommen and more. I think there are decent odds he will be part of Aegon's Council.

If the trial-by-combat goes awry as I laid out above - or if there is going to be blood between Tommen's people (Lannisters or Tyrells) and the Faith Militant (over Margaery's trial, for instance) then the High Septon would most definitely proclaim with his divine authority that Aegon is who he says he is and the rightful king.

This is a very likely scenario anyway, considering that the sparrows are basically a commoner movement - and the High Sparrow himself is a commoner. And the commoners, especially those in the Riverlands where the sparrow movement originated - worship the Targaryens. The High Septon also looks for a savior to restore peace and prosperity to the Seven Kingdoms, and he doesn't think he himself is that guy. So chances are very high that the Faith Militant is actually going to become Aegon's fanatic army. Sure, he will have concede their existence and the relative strength of the new Faith. He doesn't have dragons.

With the introduction of the Doctrine of Exceptionalism Aegon's incestuous ancestry (the marriage of his grandparents and great-grandparents) shouldn't be a problem since the Faith itself affirms that the Targaryens are different from other men. Not to mention that Aegon's parents weren't brother and sister and his likely future wife Arianne is only his first cousin.

One can also expect that the Faith's influence at Aegon's future court will be one of the reasons why there is going to be a Second Dance since chances are very high that the High Septon will oppose the possibility of a King Aegon VI sharing power with a Queen Daenerys I.

18 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

How does he marry two wives when he needs support of the Faith (High Sparrow)? 

He doesn't. And most definitely not Margaery. She should be far too tarnished by the very fact that there was an arrest/investigation/trial.

I could see Aegon eventually making Sansa his second wife if the Vale declared for him and came to his aid, simply because she is so damned hot, and the boy can follow the example of the Conqueror and Maegor, but something like that could only happen after he sits pretty safely on the throne.

Although it is rather difficult to imagine that he should not be completely bedazzled by Arianne. She really is one of the hottest women in Westeros.

17 hours ago, Crona said:

Well Aegon doesn’t have to marry Arianne because she is his cousin and will most likely pledge to him after hearing of Quentyn’s death. In this scenario I think there is a chance that Aegon can marry Margery.

No, that is not very likely. Here we have to look at the time line and at events in Meereen. We know Slaver's Bay is not exactly a popular place to travel since Dany is there, making news travel slower and more infrequently from there to other places.

The news that are going to be spread rather quickly by the people in charge there - the Yunkish Allies who control the harbors and ships in Slaver's Bay since before Dany made peace with them - are (1) Daenerys Targaryen marrying Hizdahr zo Loraq and (2) Daenerys Targaryen's alleged death shortly after her wedding.

(1) is going to interpreted by Doran Martell and Arianne and all people in Westeros that the Mad King's daughter has decided to settle down at the end of the world and build herself a kingdom and empire there. It will convince them that she is not likely going to come soon or at all. And it will send the message to Doran and Arianne that the Quentyn plan has failed because Dany is not going to marry Quentyn after she has just married some Ghiscari nobleman. This means that the only dragon the Martells can back now if they want to get their revenge, etc. is Aegon. Because he is there and dependent on their help.

(2) should end all speculation that Dany might come to Westeros in the future. It will likely be the news causes Connington to agree to and support the idea that Aegon marry Arianne.

The news about Quentyn should come to Westeros much later considering that it was actually a rather secret event taking place in the middle of a coup in the city and is immediately followed by a renewal of the hostilities against the Yunkish Allies.

It might take as long as Gerris and Archibald to return to Dorne - or at least them being able to send messages to Dorne - to actually send news of those developments to Sunspear via some of Doran's agents in the Free Cities.

Once they arrive in Westeros they will likely be the news that is going to harden Arianne's heart against Daenerys even more, being one of the main roots for the eventual Second Dance of the Dragons.

But the thing causing the Aegon-Arianne marriage is going to be the news about Dany-Hizdahr and/or the news of Dany's death.

What reason Arianne is going to have to actually give Aegon the support of Dorne in the coming battles we don't know. We will have to wait and see. Is going to get the hots for him? Will she be impressed by him, wanting to believe he is her first cousin? Or is she actually going to sit back and wait before she commits Dorne to his cause until after he has fought against the Tyrell army?

We don't know yet. But if the later were the case the news about Dany's marriage/alleged death might already have reached her via Doran, so those things might figure into her decision.

But I honestly expect she will make the decision herself, and it will revolve around her secret desire to be queen. I even could her being almost certain Aegon is not Elia's son but still going along with it because it suits her desires. And if this were her motivation then this could also explain why she is going to stick with him until the very end. Because it will have been her call to make this boy king.

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8 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

How does he marry two wives when he needs support of the Faith (High Sparrow)? 

Who said, that he needs support of High Sparrow? Also, the official Faith and High Sparrow are two different things. It's fairly likely, that someone will deal with High Sparrow, and his army of fanatics. They could be proclaimed outlaws and enemies of the official Church. Sooner or later people of 7K will become unsattisfied with High Sparrow's actions. Same as it happened with Baelor the Blessed. People love Margaery, and it is obvious, that Varys had a deal with Tyrells, concerning her - marriage with fAegon (it was part of Varys' plans for many years).

Aegon the Conqueror had two wives, but still was anointed by High Septon. And under Aegon's rule were united 6 of Westeros' Kingdoms, which stopped all those constant wars between them. So Aegon's rule had brought peace and prosperity to people of Westeros. Which could be seen as a sign, that he was blessed by the Gods, even though he had two wives. And first Lord of Dragonstone, Aenar Targaryen, also had more that one wife. Thus, fAegon's people can say, that because Targaryens are special, they are allowed to have more than one wife, same as how they were allowed to marry with their siblings.

It seems to me, that, according to Varys' original plan, fAegon was supposed to get married with Arianne Martell and with Margaery Tyrell. Then, after Dany became a significant player in a Game of Thrones, Blackfyres/Varys altered their plans to include marriage with Dany, instead of a marriage with Arianne. And Littlefinger, who knew nearly everything about Varys' original plan (because it's likely, that he used to be one of Varys' agents. And his personal sigil, mockingbird, is a hint about it. Amongst Varys' people there's not only street urchins and orphans. For example, his agents were Bronn, Shae, Gerold Dayne, Balon Swann.), decided to utilise elements of that plan for his own benefit. He altered Varys' original plan, and launched it several years prior time planned by Varys. While in Varys' original plan, there was a marriage alliance between fAegon and Margaery Tyrell, which would have secured for Blackfyres support of The Reach, in Littlefinger's altered plan, he replaced Margaery with Sansa Stark, and orchestrated events in 7K in a way, that made Sansa the key to The North, The Vale, and Riverlands. Which is significantly more, than what fAegon will get, if he will take Varys' offer of a marriage with Margaery. 

So originally fAegon's wives were supposed to become Margaery and Arianne. Then Margaery and Dany. Now it's Margaery and Sansa, because thru marriage with Aryanne fAegon will get only support of one Kingdom (Dorne), though thru marriage with Sansa, he will get support from three Kingdoms. And Blackfyres can't remove Margaery from their plans, because Tyrells' military forces is the main trump card, that Varys planned to use, to seize control over King's Landing and 7K.

So, to marry fAegon with two girls, was always a part of Varys' plan. Thus, he had some sort of a strategy, how to deal with the Faith. So eventually he will deal even with this uprising of Sparrows, and secure for fAegon a right to have two wives, like Aegon the Conqueror had.

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15 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

I don't know. While the Tyrells are probably correct to be regarded as schemers and untrustworty, they don't strike me as cowards. And they did join their strength to the Lannisters when the Lannister ship was looking anything but strong in the first place.

It has nothing to do with cowardice. Every house must do what they believe is in their best interest. The Tyrells are a powerful house in a powerful position. They command the largest army in Westeros, and rule over the largest and richest region in Westeros, a region that has been untouched by war until the invasion of the Iron Islanders. The Tyrells chose to lend their strength to prop up the weakened Lannisters when their only other choice was Stannis, who was no real choice at all.

But since the death of Tywin the Lannisters have proven to be an unstable partner, and the Tyrells now find themselves wed to this unstable house, and a boy king that is unable to consummate his marriage to their daughter, let alone father children with her. They might have been comfortable with that situation when Tywin was still alive and stability looked more attainable, but now? They could attempt to take full possession of Tommen from what remains of the Lannisters, but they are going to have to decide whether that really gives their house the best chance at survival and success going forward.

It was one thing for them to prop up the Lannisters against the rival kings of a divided Westeros, but it will be quite another if/when the many Lannister hating houses of Westeros begin flocking to AeGriff, especially with the launch of the invasion of the Reach by the Iron Islanders. The circumstances have changed a great deal since they chose to prop up the Lannisters, and I would be surprised for them to choose to take their chances with the Lannisters against AeGriff.

17 hours ago, Lion of the West said:

The main problem I have with the "sinking ship" example is that it is based on that there would be no incentive for the Tyrells to stay and fight with their massive army, not to mention that they have a very strong hold over the small council last I checked. A dead Margaerys will certainly sour the Tyrells on Cersei, and perhaps the Lannisters in general, and the High Sparrow. But I would expect them, who raised a rebellion with Renly and joined with the Lannisters against Stannis and Robb, not to get scared before a blow has been struck, clear the house out for Aegon and then let the Targaryens and Martells march in to claim all the rewards and which Aegon, maybe after giving them some worthless scraps, sends the Tyrells back where they came, and tell them to stay there or else. I am utterly convinced that unless something drastic happens beyond that the Lannisters are weakened, the Tyrells will just give up and go home after having finally secure their prize with dominance at court and a puppet king. It don't make sense with the ambitions they've displayed so far in the series.

Their only tenuous tie to the Iron Throne is a flimsy marriage between their daughter and the child king. They will not be able to create a blood tie/claim to the Iron Throne for years through Tommen. Tommen could catch a cold and die at any time and there goes their only claim. Are they really going to be prepared to risk the future of their house, and expect their bannermen to risk their houses, for that?

Their alliance with the Lannisters made sense at the time. But if AeGriff takes Storm's End, and once the lords of the realm start learning about him, it is going to be a much different situation. 

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