Why aren’t people intimidated by the dragons?

[Tyrion1991]

A lot of players in the series seem to believe they can fight Danys dragons in open battle and win. Why?

I mean they are intensely aware that three dragons conquered the seven Kingdoms. Most of the Lannister Lords and soldiers have sat in the ruins of Harranhall. The Greatjon makes the point that the only time the North ever submitted was to these creatures. 

So logically if you know this person has three monsters that can lay waste to armies and cities; how come everyone’s always so surprised when that goes poorly for them?

But honestly it never factors into people’s mentality or behaviour. The slavers still sail their fleet into the bay. The Lannister’s still send their army out to fight. Reach Lords join them without any real plan. The Iron fleet joins in. 

I never really understood this. If I was some plump  Westerland lord sitting in my damp castle I’d be a little bit reluctant to be getting involved in this war. I wouldn’t fancy my chances. For a grounded series there must be some suicidally brave people in this show. Because they’re clearly not ignorant of how dangerous dragons are.

Spoiler

Like for example in the Bells. One dragon can do that? How could they ever have considered fighting that? Dany burns a 1000 ships, 20,000 Golden Company, 60,000 Lannister Knights, all the Goldcloaks and the rest of the city in a single day....

 

Rational people don’t enter wars like that unless they have to and in a feudal system it should be immensely difficult to coerce your vassals to commit suicide.

[Aldarion]

Maybe because they had been preparing for them, and are too optimistic? I mean, Aegon's dragons were an outside-context problem. But they are not any longer, and now you have weapons designed to deal with dragons.

Also, if you look at background of the books, there had been cases of dragons taken out by ground weapons. It was never easy, but it did happen.

[Targaryen Peas]

I'm not sure if this is a good example. But during WWII Japan got nuked by America, costing thousands of lives and ravaging a whole city. They were offered terms of surrender before the first bomb, knowing how destructive that could be since Germany conducted research about it etc. 

Yet, they didn't surrender until the second bomb dropped. 

Why? I think people need to see with their eyes the despair to recognize it. Also, You can be sure that human are fools, and decisions makers aren't the one standing on the battlefields. 

[Lady of Mercia]

15 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Also, if you look at background of the books, there had been cases of dragons taken out by ground weapons. It was never easy, but it did happen.

And during the Dance a mob killed a bunch of dragons in the Dragonpit. So they would know that it's been done before (even though a ton of people got killed trying).

[RYShh]

Qyburn : ''Apparently one of Daenerys' dragons was wounded by spears in the fighting pits of Meereen. If they can be wounded, they can be killed.'' (S07E02)

They didn't even need to mention about the incident in the Dragonpit, where they killed several Dragons.

When Aegon first came to the Westeros, he basically caught the S7 Kingdoms off-guard, they didn't know how to deal with it, but then they learned that Dragons are no where near invincible.

[A Ghost of Someone]

On 5/23/2019 at 5:00 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

A lot of players in the series seem to believe they can fight Danys dragons in open battle and win. Why?

I mean they are intensely aware that three dragons conquered the seven Kingdoms. Most of the Lannister Lords and soldiers have sat in the ruins of Harranhall. The Greatjon makes the point that the only time the North ever submitted was to these creatures. 

So logically if you know this person has three monsters that can lay waste to armies and cities; how come everyone’s always so surprised when that goes poorly for them?

But honestly it never factors into people’s mentality or behaviour. The slavers still sail their fleet into the bay. The Lannister’s still send their army out to fight. Reach Lords join them without any real plan. The Iron fleet joins in. 

I never really understood this. If I was some plump  Westerland lord sitting in my damp castle I’d be a little bit reluctant to be getting involved in this war. I wouldn’t fancy my chances. For a grounded series there must be some suicidally brave people in this show. Because they’re clearly not ignorant of how dangerous dragons are.

  Hide contents

Like for example in the Bells. One dragon can do that? How could they ever have considered fighting that? Dany burns a 1000 ships, 20,000 Golden Company, 60,000 Lannister Knights, all the Goldcloaks and the rest of the city in a single day....

 

Rational people don’t enter wars like that unless they have to and in a feudal system it should be immensely difficult to coerce your vassals to commit suicide.

The Show made them more vulnerable than the cannon. Head shots, in particular, the eyes are the way to bring them down when they are flying and are being shot at. like Rheagal was taken out rather easily, getting multiple hits while Drogon had everyone shooting at him and ..... nothing. Also, I am not sure about the NK weapons, which are stymied by Dragon Glass which, if I am not wrong, is dried Dragon Blood, should have basically bounced off Viseryion rather than, what happened. This show was full of contradictions and bad writing, the logic is just not there sad to say.

[Aldarion]

5 hours ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

The Show made them more vulnerable than the cannon. Head shots, in particular, the eyes are the way to bring them down when they are flying and are being shot at. like Rheagal was taken out rather easily, getting multiple hits while Drogon had everyone shooting at him and ..... nothing. Also, I am not sure about the NK weapons, which are stymied by Dragon Glass which, if I am not wrong, is dried Dragon Blood, should have basically bounced off Viseryion rather than, what happened. This show was full of contradictions and bad writing, the logic is just not there sad to say.

Dragon Glass is obsidian. A.K.A. vulcanic glass. A.K.A. fire made stone. Same reason why Valyrian steel weapons are effective: they are made with dragonfire, and dragonfire has magical properties.

[A Ghost of Someone]

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Dragon Glass is obsidian. A.K.A. vulcanic glass. A.K.A. fire made stone. Same reason why Valyrian steel weapons are effective: they are made with dragonfire, and dragonfire has magical properties.

Volcanic, ok, so I wonder if the books will pull the same or similar stunt like they did last year. The books do mention Weirwood Arrows which may have a play in the cannon. Thanks

[Masha]

 

On 5/26/2019 at 8:48 AM, A Ghost of Someone said:

The Show made them more vulnerable than the cannon. Head shots, in particular, the eyes are the way to bring them down when they are flying and are being shot at. like Rheagal was taken out rather easily, getting multiple hits while Drogon had everyone shooting at him and ..... nothing. Also, I am not sure about the NK weapons, which are stymied by Dragon Glass which, if I am not wrong, is dried Dragon Blood, should have basically bounced off Viseryion rather than, what happened. This show was full of contradictions and bad writing, the logic is just not there sad to say.

I don't think the same thing will happen in the books. There were a lot of "rumors" about sightings of ice dragons. I suspect the Others will have at least one of these and they will kill one of Dany's dragons - not weird ice spear. Another dragon probably will get killed by weirwood arrows after Bran clues them in.

Even in the books, Rhaenys and her dragon got killed by a lucky shot from dornish scorpion. Show kind of got it right that if you mount enough scorpions on the walls/ships, catch dragon by surprise and you might get lucky with 1 shot. You won't get another shot if the dragon doesn't go down instantly.

[A Ghost of Someone]

4 hours ago, Masha said:

 

I don't think the same thing will happen in the books. There were a lot of "rumors" about sightings of ice dragons. I suspect the Others will have at least one of these and they will kill one of Dany's dragons - not weird ice spear. Another dragon probably will get killed by weirwood arrows after Bran clues them in.

Even in the books, Rhaenys and her dragon got killed by a lucky shot from dornish scorpion. Show kind of got it right that if you mount enough scorpions on the walls/ships, catch dragon by surprise and you might get lucky with 1 shot. You won't get another shot if the dragon doesn't go down instantly.

The books and show are very different. The Books are cannon, the show is very bad fanfiction.

[Rose of Red Lake]

Well, GRRM has said that Dany has a lot of adversaries who don't want the Targaryens back, so I'm sure he'll have everyone turn into Dorne this time.

[WolfOfWinter]

No one's going to be rolling over for the dragons in the books either. Especially not with the fear of Dany being just like her father looming over everyone's heads. We saw how effective Cersei was with her propaganda in the show, and she made it pretty clear that Dany's army, especially the Dothraki, threatened the safety of the entire realm. In their minds, letting Dany sit the throne would have doomed them anyway while fighting against her at least provided them some chance of winning.

Keep in mind that the dragons during Aegon's conquest were massive and complete strange creatures none of the Westerosi had experienced, yet many initially fought the Targaryens anyway. By comparison, Dany's dragons are much smaller and history has already proven that dragons aren't undefeatable. 

[Br16]

On 5/24/2019 at 6:00 AM, Tyrion1991 said:

I never really understood this. If I was some plump  Westerland lord sitting in my damp castle I’d be a little bit reluctant to be getting involved in this war. I wouldn’t fancy my chances. For a grounded series there must be some suicidally brave people in this show. Because they’re clearly not ignorant of how dangerous dragons are.

  Hide contents

Like for example in the Bells. One dragon can do that? How could they ever have considered fighting that? Dany burns a 1000 ships, 20,000 Golden Company, 60,000 Lannister Knights, all the Goldcloaks and the rest of the city in a single day....

Rational people don’t enter wars like that unless they have to and in a feudal system it should be immensely difficult to coerce your vassals to commit suicide.

First of all, I don't think the Lannisters had anything close to 60,000 during the Bells. Jaime only had 8K with him during the Riverlands campaign and he had to empty Casterly Rock to get that 10K Tyrion mentioned to High Garden. Moreover, he probably lost half his army in the Gold Road Battle since the "tail end" was attacked. So Cersei probably had a total of 10K at Kings Landing between the Red Keep Household Guard, recalled Riverlands detachment and Jaime's surviving half army from the Gold Road. 

As for why people continued to fight even though they knew what dragons were capable off, the simplest explanation is that most of them are hardened risk taking people who don't think like we do. This was a world where simply being cut could cause you to die of sepsis. Yet people still entered tourneys and aspired to be knighted.

I say even if there were 30 Dragons, there would still be resistance. Even in the time of Old Valyria, the Ghiscari and Rhoynar fought to the end. 

The Westerosi military class were the type willing to take the risk and fight. For example, Robb could have sealed of Moat Cailin and tried to negotiate with Lannisters, but he called his banners and gambled with his 20K men. Bronn could have fled with the gold, but chose to access that Scorpion, Jaime could have betrayed Cersei and groveled before Dany, but he tried that St George charge. Ned felt pretty good with his >50 Household Guard and Jon Snow was willing to charge by himself to try and save Rickon. 

[Tyrion1991]

50 minutes ago, Br16 said:

First of all, I don't think the Lannisters had anything close to 60,000 during the Bells. Jaime only had 8K with him during the Riverlands campaign and he had to empty Casterly Rock to get that 10K Tyrion mentioned to High Garden. Moreover, he probably lost half his army in the Gold Road Battle since the "tail end" was attacked. So Cersei probably had a total of 10K at Kings Landing between the Red Keep Household Guard, recalled Riverlands detachment and Jaime's surviving half army from the Gold Road. 

As for why people continued to fight even though they knew what dragons were capable off, the simplest explanation is that most of them are hardened risk taking people who don't think like we do. This was a world where simply being cut could cause you to die of sepsis. Yet people still entered tourneys and aspired to be knighted.

I say even if there were 30 Dragons, there would still be resistance. Even in the time of Old Valyria, the Ghiscari and Rhoynar fought to the end. 

The Westerosi military class were the type willing to take the risk and fight. For example, Robb could have sealed of Moat Cailin and tried to negotiate with Lannisters, but he called his banners and gambled with his 20K men. Bronn could have fled with the gold, but chose to access that Scorpion, Jaime could have betrayed Cersei and groveled before Dany, but he tried that St George charge. Ned felt pretty good with his >50 Household Guard and Jon Snow was willing to charge by himself to try and save Rickon. 

 

This is a contrivance of the plot. 

Tywin tells us that “a million men could have attacked these walls (Harrenhal) and a million men could have been repelled”. So they know how dangerous the dragons are, that fighting them should be suicidal and accomplish nothing. This should have a huge impact on Lords and Soldiers decision making. In the show not a single character is intimidated by the dragons until the absolute end of the series. That is not believable.

Without ignorance you then need an irrational reason to fight. Again Tywin in a deleted scene is quite clear to Pycelle on why Lannister gets respect and authority. “What happens when we are not the strongest house?.”. Their power relies upon their physical strength and people being afraid of them. They do not inspire love and people only serve them out of fear or to profit. That motivation should implode once Daenerys arrives. Daenerys should never have needed to use her dragons to depose Cersei.

I do not buy the nationalist excuse the show uses. Firstly the show never depicted the Southern Lords as being nationalist in their struggle with the FM or Dornish. Secondly, Russian boyars, Muslim Emirs and Chinese officials were equally convinced of their own superiority; but they still broke before the Mongols. Yet the power disparity is infinitely greater. In the books GRRM is already setting Dany up to fail by making Young Griff the perfect King who will win over Lords and People to his side. If you read AFFC it’s obvious that the Lannister’s could never hold the Iron Throne against a military power greater than themselves.

I disagree entirely. It’s the same issue I had with the Slavers in ADWD. I can believe that the Karstarks would forsake Rob or that the Freys would betray him. But those were reasonable risks made for solid reasons. However, I simply do not understand their behaviour. 

I have to come back to the question. If you  were a Westerland Lord with a few hundred men, would you have backed Cersei? Putting your life, lands and title at risk for her with nothing to gain? If I put the same situation to a Pathfinder RP group I would guarantee that they would wriggle their way out and become the “Late Lords of the West”. People generally do not willingly commit mass suicide.

[Br16]

3 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I have to come back to the question. If you  were a Westerland Lord with a few hundred men, would you have backed Cersei? Putting your life, lands and title at risk for her with nothing to gain? If I put the same situation to a Pathfinder RP group I would guarantee that they would wriggle their way out and become the “Late Lords of the West”. People generally do not willingly commit mass suicide

If I were a Westerland Lord, I would know that there might be no pardon after the RW and dragon pit betrayals, especially as the North stands with the Dragons.

Moreover, If I were a Westerland Lord, I would probably remember the days when the Lannisters were Kings of the Rock, that Robb once "foraged" the Westerlands, and that the Scorpions have been successful at least once (and now they have a ton of them). Moreover, if I betrayed my liege and my liege won, my House is doomed 100%, and if I was "late", I would probably be punished for being insincere. So the only choice is honor the oath to Casterly Rock.

So if I were a Westerlord, unless Jaime orders me to stand down, I would leave behind  150 of my few hundred to hold my castle and patrol the lands, and the remaining (perhaps 200-300) to Kings Landing for a life or death gamble.

[Tyrion1991]

1 hour ago, Br16 said:

If I were a Westerland Lord, I would know that there might be no pardon after the RW and dragon pit betrayals, especially as the North stands with the Dragons.

Moreover, If I were a Westerland Lord, I would probably remember the days when the Lannisters were Kings of the Rock, that Robb once "foraged" the Westerlands, and that the Scorpions have been successful at least once (and now they have a ton of them). Moreover, if I betrayed my liege and my liege won, my House is doomed 100%, and if I was "late", I would probably be punished for being insincere. So the only choice is honor the oath to Casterly Rock.

So if I were a Westerlord, unless Jaime orders me to stand down, I would leave behind  150 of my few hundred to hold my castle and patrol the lands, and the remaining (perhaps 200-300) to Kings Landing for a life or death gamble.

 

They did not have scorpions for all of season 7. The one which they did failed. History should tell them that only a fluke hit could kill a dragon even if you had thousands of scorpions. We know this because it’s what happened. They had the support of Dorne and Tyrell. There is no excuse that this never gave them any pause.

They have no reason to assume Cersei could win. Dany single handedly kills a million people and the combined armies of two houses and the Golden Company in a few hours. It was madness that they tried to fight her in the first instance. You are telling me that nobody imagined that as a likely outcome? That is not believable.

If Dany wins, they also 100 percent die. Which is exactly what happened. Why gamble on the person least likely to win? 

The North’s opinion is irrelevant. Dany got to decide that.

Shes not going to punish you because she was always going to lose. We know this because she lost pathetically to just one of the dragons.

Why should they care about an oath to the Lannisters? They have neither wealth and rule by fear. They are tyrants. Cersei worse than most.

So you are telling me that in their situation you would willingly enter a war where you know you will die? Where your death will achieve nothing but target practice?  I don’t believe you. You’re saying that because you want to justify the show railroading Dany into having to use her dragon because nobody in Westeros ever thought “I don’t think we can win this one lads”. They should always have been afraid of her. It is a contradiction that she was always that powerful and nobody was scared of her. 

The fact that they actually did surrender suggests they were never suicidal. Clearly self preservation was important to them. So why, would they ever have thought they could win? It should have been obvious from the outset. The show relies upon the Westerland Lords believing that they could achieve the impossible.

By the shows logic the Lannister army should never have surrendered because they obviously aren’t scared of these dragons. Dany should realise that fear does not work because if they were then they would have surrendered at the outset. Why are they suddenly scared of one dragon when three didn’t even make them blink?

It is stupid.

 

 

[Br16]

13 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

So you are telling me that in their situation you would willingly enter a war where you know you will die? Where your death will achieve nothing but target practice?  I don’t believe you. You’re saying that because you want to justify the show railroading Dany into having to use her dragon because nobody in Westeros ever thought “I don’t think we can win this one lads”. They should always have been afraid of her. It is a contradiction that she was always that powerful and nobody was scared of her. 

I would have heard that Bronn wounded Drogon with that prototype scorpion, and as a Bannerman, I think it would be reasonable for Qyburn to brief us on the better models being crafted. Also, the Lannisters are only tyrants to the rest of Westeros, not to the Westermen. If I were a Westerlord, my family would probably have benefited from Tywin's 20 years as hand or even the sack of Kings Landing during the rebellion.

So as a Westerlord, I'd take my chances and honor my oath than wait and put myself under the discretion of the North/Targaryen alliance. There's basically no trust at that stage. From a Westerlord perspective: Tyrion was a kingslayer, kinslayer and traitor ; The North are here for revenge for Ned, RW and broken promise to fight NK ; Lannister men wiped out Dany's whole family. As long as there are scorpions, its a fair gamble. 

Also, if I were in Kings Landing, I would have suggested that Qyburn also mount scorpions on converted roofs and on different levels of the Red Keep to create cross fire, rather than just put them on the battlements in a straight line, which limited their ability to maneuver. 

For a Westerlord, there is a fair chance of victory against dragons as long as there are scorpions. And if the Lannister faction won, the Riverlands would be securely Lannister, and I might get another estate. So there is reward. 

[Tyrion1991]

38 minutes ago, Br16 said:

I would have heard that Bronn wounded Drogon with that prototype scorpion, and as a Bannerman, I think it would be reasonable for Qyburn to brief us on the better models being crafted. Also, the Lannisters are only tyrants to the rest of Westeros, not to the Westermen. If I were a Westerlord, my family would probably have benefited from Tywin's 20 years as hand or even the sack of Kings Landing during the rebellion.

So as a Westerlord, I'd take my chances and honor my oath than wait and put myself under the discretion of the North/Targaryen alliance. There's basically no trust at that stage. From a Westerlord perspective: Tyrion was a kingslayer, kinslayer and traitor ; The North are here for revenge for Ned, RW and broken promise to fight NK ; Lannister men wiped out Dany's whole family. As long as there are scorpions, its a fair gamble. 

Also, if I were in Kings Landing, I would have suggested that Qyburn also mount scorpions on converted roofs and on different levels of the Red Keep to create cross fire, rather than just put them on the battlements in a straight line, which limited their ability to maneuver. 

For a Westerlord, there is a fair chance of victory against dragons as long as there are scorpions. And if the Lannister faction won, the Riverlands would be securely Lannister, and I might get another estate. So there is reward. 

 

Bronn only did that late season 7. By then the alliance had already committed itself to war. Plus scorpions cannot hurt the dragons unless they hit an eye and actually hitting a moving dragon is difficult. The show ignored the former and the latter is proven in the Bells. 

Because it was a foolish decision to fight. The final episodes showed how severe the power imbalance was between these factions. The initial instinct of “she has three dragons” is a horrifically true assessment of their chances. When your army is being snuffed out like ants you should realise mistakes were made.

There was zero chance of victory. Tyrion makes it quite clear when he says “there won’t be an iron fleet for very long” note how in the Bells Dany effortlessly massacres all of them. He knows how useless those scorpions will be. This is why he is constantly trying to get Cersei to see sense. He was totally right when he told Qyburn outside the gates that “you’re screwed”. Sane people should be aware of this.

Dany forgave Tywin Lannister’s son. They have no reason to believe she would insist on killing the Westerlords in season 7. If they were so convinced she was going to kill them anyway then why surrender in the Bells? Hmm?

Look at what actually happened. The Lannister’s chose to fight a suicidal war they had no realistic chance of winning. It is made clear from the start of season 7 that Dany has but to attack KL with her dragon and she will win. How could the Lannister army not come to the same conclusion? 

They were relying upon a fluke ballista round hitting Dany. That is not a reliable strategy and one likely to get them all killed. Which it did. You are telling me nobody questioned the wisdom of this plan? This is the equivalent of a level 1 party trying to kill an ancient dragon by gaming it.

The plot relies upon one faction not foreseeing the consequences of defying Daenerys. Then suddenly coming to this realisation at the last possible moment and remembering the fear of certain death; which never impacted their decision making. It made no sense that they surrendered since their actions before then show that they were committed to fighting a hopeless war.

 

[Br16]

48 minutes ago, Tyrion1991 said:

They were relying upon a fluke ballista round hitting Dany. That is not a reliable strategy and one likely to get them all killed. Which it did. You are telling me nobody questioned the wisdom of this plan? This is the equivalent of a level 1 party trying to kill an ancient dragon by gaming it.

Well, Jaime was pardoned because he went to honor his oath against the NK, any westerlord would have sat in safety while they faced a Zombie army. 

Also, Jaime was initially quite confident of Cersei's chances when he spoke with Tyrion. So a fluke ballista was always their hope, it had enough credibility to float, especially when you were building scores of them. The Lannisters were like the Germans in 1943-1944 (heck, they even got stuck in two front war). Things were looking bad, but surrender wasn't an option, and they might luck out if they went all in.

Of course, they lost. But that Lannister detachment Jon faced only surrendered because all the scorpions were destroyed, the gamble was worth it.

[Tyrion1991]

8 minutes ago, Br16 said:

Well, Jaime was pardoned because he went to honor his oath against the NK, any westerlord would have sat in safety while they faced a Zombie army. 

Also, Jaime was initially quite confident of Cersei's chances when he spoke with Tyrion. So a fluke ballista was always their hope, it had enough credibility to float, especially when you were building scores of them. The Lannisters were like the Germans in 1943-1944 (heck, they even got stuck in two front war). Things were looking bad, but surrender wasn't an option, and they might luck out if they went all in.

Of course, they lost. But that Lannister detachment Jon faced only surrendered because all the scorpions were destroyed, but the gamble was worth it.

Iam talking about Tyrion.

Which was idiotic and he was manifestly wrong. If it’s that stark then smarter people should come to the conclusion that they are screwed.

The Germans were never that badly outmatched even at the very and we are talking about sane people here. Dany was not demanding unconditional surrender. The Nazis would have accepted those terms in a heartbeat (a chance to walk away, keep their territory and no war crimes). The two are not comparable.

Surrender was clearly an option because they did actually surrender. Just far, far later than they should have. Clearly they presumed they would always have the option but refused it. Dany several times offers them this option from the first episode of season 7. Their refusal is not a rational decision.

It is implied that detachment represents the entire army and city. A microcosm. 

The gamble is not worth it because:

1. It failed and they all got killed

2. Why take that risk for Cersei to sit the Iron Throne?

3 Why is the outcome of Dany sitting the IT so terrible? If it was that terrible then they shouldn’t have surrendered at all.