UK Politics: The End of May

[Heartofice]

25 minutes ago, A wilding said:

A good PM, one who actually had the best interests on the UK at heart, would have tried to marginalise them and attempted to form some sort of cross party concensus, or at least a majority, on Brexit. When May in desperation finally started in that direction, it was too little and too late

Even now I'm not sure what that cross party consensus would have been. There still seems to be a massive gulf between the two parties on key issues, issue which there doesn't even appear to be a middle ground. 

[Which Tyler]

23 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Even now I'm not sure what that cross party consensus would have been. There still seems to be a massive gulf between the two parties on key issues, issue which there doesn't even appear to be a middle ground. 

This is certainly true now, and to a lesser extent was true 3 years ago.

However, there was a lot more goodwill and willingness to find a compromise back when they al votes on art.50 for example.

May is responsible for oissin all that away and ramping up the rhetoric of enemies

[Heartofice]

5 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

This is certainly true now, and to a lesser extent was true 3 years ago.

However, there was a lot more goodwill and willingness to find a compromise back when they al votes on art.50 for example.

May is responsible for oissin all that away and ramping up the rhetoric of enemies

Undoubtedly her strategy all the way through has been to pressure people into going her way by creating hard deadlines and small windows of opportunity. It totally backfired predictably.

The time for cross party talks was before triggering A50. Instead she rushed ahead because she didn’t trust anyone.

[Zorral]

She's finally going to be gone.  Alas that this will not make anything any better.  National trainwrecks everywhere!

[Jen'ari]

Good riddance, wonder who’ll be throwing their hats in the ring for the poisoned chalice, I’m hoping it doesn’t end up being Gove or Boris.

[SeanF]

I've nothing against her especially.  "Just not up to it" as Attlee told one of his ministers, when he sacked him.  The WA she negotiated was not at all bad, but she lacked any of the interpersonal skills needed to sell it.

I'll be one of the voters choosing her successor. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

21 minutes ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

Good riddance, wonder who’ll be throwing their hats in the ring for the poisoned chalice, I’m hoping it doesn’t end up being Gove or Boris.

How about Andrea Loathsome or Chris Grayling?

I mean if you want to go stupid, why stop half-way, when you go the whole grayling. The Tories have so much first class talent to choose from. The last time I saw such a dense group of political talent was during the last GOP primary in the US; and in the end that worked out for the best in the end...

[A wilding]

36 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I'll be one of the voters choosing her successor. 

Well it currently looks like your choice is going to be between Boris "Leave in October with No Deal" Johnson and someone slightly less obnoxious , probably Gove or Hunt. Though this being the Tory party there are doubtless many twists to come.

[Heartofice]

Raab is probably in second place I think, but he might be too hard core Brexiteer 

[SeanF]

1 minute ago, A wilding said:

Well it currently looks like your choice is going to be between Boris "Leave in October with No Deal" Johnson and someone slightly less obnoxious , probably Gove or Hunt. Though this being the Tory party there are doubtless many twists to come.

It's a mug's game, trying to predict who will win at this stage.  As a good rule of thumb,  though, the early favourite usually loses.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

This feels fitting:

 

Quote

The results of a new survey revealed that British people are getting drunk more often than any other nationality.

Last week, the 2019 Global Drug Survey was released to the public. It’s the largest drug survey in the world, analyzing data on drug and alcohol use from over 123,000 people in more than 30 countries. This year, in the survey’s eighth annual report, U.K. respondents reported getting drunk more times per year than people from anywhere else.

British people who drink admitted to having been drunk 51 times in the past 12 months — 18 more times than the GDS average of 33. Several other English-speaking countries were not far behind, with Americans reporting getting drunk 50 times a year, Canadians reporting 48 times a year and Australians reporting 47 times a year.

“We have never grasped moderation. It’s not part of our culture or conversation,” Adam Winstock, an addiction psychiatrist and founder of the Global Drug Survey, told CNN. “We need to learn that more fun with better health and fatter wallets can follow from a bit less, a bit less often.”

https://people.com/food/british-people-globa-drug-survey/

[Mentat]

1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

The last time I saw such a dense group of political talent was during the last GOP primary in the US; and that worked out for the best in the end...

Why not simply skip the middle-man and become the 51st State of the USA? No more problems with trade deals! A currency everyone can trust! The EU would have a fit! Immigrants not welcome! What's not to like? 

49 minutes ago, A wilding said:

Well it currently looks like your choice is going to be between Boris "Leave in October with No Deal" Johnson...

At this point, is there any other realistic choice?

May's deal is tainted to the point nobody will touch it with a 10 foot pole. It's not coming back.

Negotiating a different deal would require a long (2 years?) extension post-October and an amount of political good-will that I can't conceivably imagine May's successor will elicit from the EU (or from the Commons or the British people, for that matter).

Revoking Article 50 and disregarding the referendum seems like a political impossibility at this point. You could have a second referendum to kill the first one, but I just can't see that happening with the current Commons unless Corbyn has a Damascene conversion and a good part of the Conservatives revolt (again). It also comes with problems of its own (a very big chunk of disenfranchised and polarised voters who will fall right into Farage's lap).

A General election before Brexit is likely to result in a mishmash of parties with no one anywhere near a clear majority and at least half a dozen very different ideas of what Brexit should be (or if it should be in the first place). Neither the Conservatives nor Labour will find this idea appealing. They have much to lose.

Is there anything I'm missing?

[Spockydog]

How many times has an early front runner won this race? History suggests it will not be Johnson. 

[Which Tyler]

4 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Undoubtedly her strategy all the way through has been to pressure people into going her way by creating hard deadlines and small windows of opportunity. It totally backfired predictably.

The time for cross party talks was before triggering A50. Instead she rushed ahead because she didn’t trust anyone.

Exactly this.

She went out of her way to make sure nobody would be willing to compromise; insisted that the only form of compromise she understands is other people agreeing with her; and then gets all upset when a compromise can't be reached.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Small factual correction. She did not rush to trigger A50 because she hadn't been trusting anyone, but because there was pressure to do so quickly. A certain Jeremy Corbyn for isntance was really adamanet about the will of the people had to be respected, and thus article 50 to be triggered asap. Not to mention the Brexiter press also expecting to see it thru rather sooner than later. So that timing was not down solely down to her. If you want to give her a kicking, do it for the stuff she is actually guilty of (there's sufficient material already). But then again, a strong leader would've ignored the pressure.

Dunt has written a nice eulogy on her premiership.

[Chaircat Meow]

2 hours ago, Mentat said:

Why not simply skip the middle-man and become the 51st State of the USA? No more problems with trade deals! A currency everyone can trust! The EU would have a fit! Immigrants not welcome! What's not to like? 

At this point, is there any other realistic choice?

May's deal is tainted to the point nobody will touch it with a 10 foot pole. It's not coming back.

Negotiating a different deal would require a long (2 years?) extension post-October and an amount of political good-will that I can't conceivably imagine May's successor will elicit from the EU (or from the Commons or the British people, for that matter).

Revoking Article 50 and disregarding the referendum seems like a political impossibility at this point. You could have a second referendum to kill the first one, but I just can't see that happening with the current Commons unless Corbyn has a Damascene conversion and a good part of the Conservatives revolt (again). It also comes with problems of its own (a very big chunk of disenfranchised and polarised voters who will fall right into Farage's lap).

A General election before Brexit is likely to result in a mishmash of parties with no one anywhere near a clear majority and at least half a dozen very different ideas of what Brexit should be (or if it should be in the first place). Neither the Conservatives nor Labour will find this idea appealing. They have much to lose.

Is there anything I'm missing?

Yes you are. Brexit is probably going to die by repeated extensions. Parliament won't allow no deal nor will it pass the withdrawal agreement. Unless PM Boris really wants to try to use executive powers to circumvent Parliament the UK will just have to stay in the EU until Parliament eventually formalises the reality by repealing article.50, possibly through a second referendum. The one great hope of the Brexiteers, these sterling patriots, is Macron. If he convinces the EU to refuse an extension Parliament will have to repeal the article.50 notification and it might baulk at doing so or lack the time. Otherwise I don't see Brexit passing. 

[Chaircat Meow]

35 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Small factual correction. She did not rush to trigger A50 because she hadn't been trusting anyone, but because there was pressure to do so quickly. A certain Jeremy Corbyn for isntance was really adamanet about the will of the people had to be respected, and thus article 50 to be triggered asap. Not to mention the Brexiter press also expecting to see it thru rather sooner than later. So that timing was not down solely down to her. If you want to give her a kicking, do it for the stuff she is actually guilty of (there's sufficient material already). But then again, a strong leader would've ignored the pressure.

Dunt has written a nice eulogy on her premiership.

Has he really. Who cares. He's said some really stupid things about the GoT finale, apparently anyone who complained about the bad plotting and piss poor characterisation is 'entitled.' That's Dunt all over, he's terrified of being against popular opinion in his own little circle of right on fruit munchers. I am bored of him. 

[Which Tyler]

30 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Small factual correction. She did not rush to trigger A50 because she hadn't been trusting anyone, but because there was pressure to do so quickly. A certain Jeremy Corbyn for isntance was really adamanet about the will of the people had to be respected, and thus article 50 to be triggered asap. Not to mention the Brexiter press also expecting to see it thru rather sooner than later. So that timing was not down solely down to her. If you want to give her a kicking, do it for the stuff she is actually guilty of (there's sufficient material already). But then again, a strong leader would've ignored the pressure.

Dunt has written a nice eulogy on her premiership.

It wasn't so much rushed, as it was that she decided to make no moves to make any progress (in terms of finding out what the country, parliament, her own party, or hell, even her cabinet - actually wanted to get out of Brexit).

She spent 6 months faffing about, annoying everyome, and seemingly talking to no-one.

Then she set the 24 month timer ticking, then wasted 3 months losing a GE etc etc.

There's a lot to criticise her for in the time between taking the premiership and triggering art 50. Not that it was rushed, but that it was ignored for too long - and yes, I do believe she wouldn't have been under so much pressure to trigger if she'd been in the process of building consensus, cross-party talks etc.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

7 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Has he really. Who cares. He's said some really stupid things about the GoT finale, apparently anyone who complained about the bad plotting and piss poor characterisation is 'entitled.' That's Dunt all over, he's terrified of being against popular opinion in his own little circle of right on fruit munchers. I am bored of him. 

Really?

I haven'T read whatever Dunt hd to say about GoT, nor do I care to find out tbh. I agree with 90% of his political writing/Assessments.  You don't like his writings, fair enough. But before we got into a (honestly speaking rather dull discussion) about what political commentators we like (are there trading cards for that sort of thing?). Your guess for next Tory leader, and (not necessarily the same) your choice.

15 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

There's a lot to criticise her for in the time between taking the premiership and triggering art 50. Not that it was rushed, but that it was ignored for too long - and yes, I do believe she wouldn't have been under so much pressure to trigger if she'd been in the process of building consensus, cross-party talks etc. 

All of that is a fair and legit critcism. However, I think the tabloids would have egged her on to trigger it, and thus by extension also the conservative grass roots.

By all accounts (feel free to correct me on that), but British politics does not really seem to be build upon reaching consensus. You have a majority, you plow thru on your party manifestos. I mean you could see her own party revolting, for the mere fact of her starting talks with Labour, and god forbid offering him something. Infact she has offered very little, but that was already too much.

[Which Tyler]

4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

All of that is a fair and legit critcism. However, I think the tabloids would have egged her on to trigger it, and thus by extension also the conservative grass roots.

By all accounts (feel free to correct me on that), but British politics does not really seem to be build upon reaching consensus. You have a majority, you plow thru on your party manifestos. I mean you could see her own party revolting, for the mere fact of her starting talks with Labour, and god forbid offering him something. Infact she has offered very little, but that was already too much.

I think it depends how known it was that concensus was being sought. Though of course, the tabloids would have stirred shit up just for the giggles anyway.

Yup, British politics is set up to be adversarial, but that's not a good thing (IMO) and there are times to put aside those differences and work together - it's happened before and it sure as hell should have happened here, which goes triple once she pissed away her majority.