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UK Politics: The End of May


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7 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

 

Very true. Javid's backstory is very interesting though, has come up the hard way, fighting for everything.

However, perhaps you want someone from the twat/loony wing to get elected, so they crash and burn the party as it exists today and we get something more 21st century emerging out of the rubble.

 

If the Conservatives crash and burn, the Brexit Party will eclipse them, which would certainly be more 21st century.

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14 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think you might be confusing Andrea Leadsom with Nadine Dorries in terms of which crazy Brexiteer MP went on I'm a Celebrity, which is admittedly an easy mistake to make.

Ooops. :blushing:

You are of course correct. Somehow I had Loathsome in mind with I am a Celebrity... Then the idea amused me so much that it developed a dynamic of its own. First the supposed dignity of the office paired with the TV show. Then Trump and said contestant talking about it on a state visit. I had to eat cockroaches on TV. And Twitler explaining, said for him it was harder, that he also had to eat with cochroaches, and black folks. And how even kept Omarosa.

Anyway, thanks for being a killjoy, well, and the factual correction on who went there.

Since it makes little difference with regards to Brexit who wins that contest, I am in favour of Tories going with the most batshit crazy they can find. Don't worry, Brexit will still be the dominating issue.

Anyway, whoever becomes Britain's Next Top Tory, they will inherit the same divided parliament with Bercow determined to stop no deal. The EU won't re-open the WA. Those are simple realities, all the bluster about Britain just forfeiting on its debts will make a difference. And they all know it, I mean, they even prefer to talk about their recreational use of drugs, just to distract from that. So just enjoy the ride.

 

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25 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

I think Boris' team have quietly told him to keep quiet and just let all the other candidates wipe themselves out first before putting himself back in the limelight. A pretty sensible strategy given his history of verbal diarrhoea.

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22 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If the Conservatives crash and burn, the Brexit Party will eclipse them, which would certainly be more 21st century.

:ack:

No doubt.

I obviously meant the centrist, more sensible element that the core membership has been free riding on for far too long in General Elections. Now that the loonies have found a set of former Labour and some former BNP supporters to hoodwink and exploit with their mirage of hard Brexit, maybe this wing can find an identity.

Probably a pipedream as it looks like organizational capacity on the ground is still a huge thing in elections and unless CUK get their act together quickly (doubtful), you are not going see a mass breakout, but a resigned wait for the right wingers to crash and burn the party before stepping aside from the leadership.

Lib Dems! Please don't bollocks it up this time.

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46 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If the Conservatives crash and burn, the Brexit Party will eclipse them, which would certainly be more 21st century.

The Brexit Party are a single-issue party with no policies outside of Brexit, which ultimately hurt them in the by-election (where it turned out that not having a single answer for questions on the NHS, policing and education is a good way of pissing off people who might otherwise vote for you). That may change in the medium term if Brexit doesn't happen, but if it does (in whatever fashion) in October, the reasons for the Brexit and UKIP parties' continued existence becomes moot.

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Lib Dems! Please don't bollocks it up this time.

 

They will probably find a way.

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unless CUK get their act together quickly (doubtful)

CUK are already collapsing. Half their MPs have quit, including their most prominent member, and are likely to defect to the Liberal Democrats. The remainder of the party will probably lapse into irrelevance before doing the same thing.

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-labour-parliament-prorogue-suspend-tory-leadership-corbyn-a8953896.html

Labour will mount a fresh bid to seize control of the Commons agenda to prevent the next Tory prime minister forcing through a no-deal Brexit.

 

The cross-party bid, led by Jeremy Corbyn, would see opposition MPs hijack the parliamentary timetable on 25 June, allowing them to introduce legislation to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

 

It comes amid mounting fears a new Tory leader could try to force through a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, with several contenders vowing to leave on that date, with or without a deal.

 

Dominic Raab, the ex-Brexit secretary, provoked outrage when he mooted suspending parliament to prevent MPs from blocking Brexit.

I still can't quite my head around ANY MP actually suggesting it in the first place; we live in a truly weird political climate

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Most Conservatives - certainly this fucking shambles - value themselves and the good of their moribund party ahead of the good of the country. They know if they don't deliver Brexit, they're going to become unelectable for some time to come, as they'll lose their Brexit votes to the Brexit Party and Zombie UKIP, and their Remain votes to the Lib Dems.

Brexit has become an existential crisis for the Conservative Party, which it isn't for any of the other parties (even Labour, although it's problematic for them), so the next leader has to sound as tough as possible and make sure Brexit happens on October 31st even if it blows up the entire country, as long as it saves the Tory Party.

The only two options for them are either getting Brexit done, or holding a General Election very quickly after the leadership contest and a brief pissing contest against the EU that they will lose, so maybe in September, but they can then blame Corbyn for everything that happens afterwards (so Ref3, a further delay of Brexit into 2020 etc) and subsequently hold the party together in opposition.

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Most Conservatives - certainly this fucking shambles - value themselves and the good of their moribund party ahead of the good of the country. They know if they don't deliver Brexit, they're going to become unelectable for some time to come, as they'll lose their Brexit votes to the Brexit Party and Zombie UKIP, and their Remain votes to the Lib Dems.

Brexit has become an existential crisis for the Conservative Party, which it isn't for any of the other parties (even Labour, although it's problematic for them), so the next leader has to sound as tough as possible and make sure Brexit happens on October 31st even if it blows up the entire country, as long as it saves the Tory Party.

The only two options for them are either getting Brexit done, or holding a General Election very quickly after the leadership contest and a brief pissing contest against the EU that they will lose, so maybe in September, but they can then blame Corbyn for everything that happens afterwards (so Ref3, a further delay of Brexit into 2020 etc) and subsequently hold the party together in opposition.

If most of the doom predicted for a no-deal Brexit comes true with a no-deal Brexit doesn't that make the Tories screwed either way? Though perhaps if Britain crashes and burns with a no-deal there's really no party to the right for voters to run off to, so ZUKIP and Brexit Party will be equally blamed for demanding this outcome. So I guess at least that makes the Tories able to hold on to their looney fringe, but likely lose a lot of their center-right support.

What happens with Scotland under a no-deal scenario? I would think that a half decent Brexit deal could prevent Scotland from going down the independence road, but a no-deal might sent it running to Brussels as fast as it can. Scotland should do some serious polling about a mood for independence in a no-deal situation.

Is Northern Ireland screwed with a no-deal?

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8 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I think Boris' team have quietly told him to keep quiet and just let all the other candidates wipe themselves out first before putting himself back in the limelight. A pretty sensible strategy given his history of verbal diarrhoea.

It is a bit risky because it allows the other candidates to attack Boris without him responding directly.

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2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If most of the doom predicted for a no-deal Brexit comes true with a no-deal Brexit doesn't that make the Tories screwed either way? Though perhaps if Britain crashes and burns with a no-deal there's really no party to the right for voters to run off to, so ZUKIP and Brexit Party will be equally blamed for demanding this outcome. So I guess at least that makes the Tories able to hold on to their looney fringe, but likely lose a lot of their center-right support.

What happens with Scotland under a no-deal scenario? I would think that a half decent Brexit deal could prevent Scotland from going down the independence road, but a no-deal might sent it running to Brussels as fast as it can. Scotland should do some serious polling about a mood for independence in a no-deal situation.

Is Northern Ireland screwed with a no-deal?

Remember that in the last two general elections (and the referendum for that matter) a lot of voters held no correlation between five and seven years of crippling, ideologically-driven austerity and a sluggish economy, a collapse in the full time jobs market and rapidly growing inequality (not to mention collapsing police numbers and a drop in NHS staffing), and a Tory government, instead blaming it on immigrants. The ability of people to blind themselves to actual cause and effect is jaw-dropping.

If Britain leaves with a no-deal, it will be firmly 100% blamed on the EU by Brexiters, and the economic hardships that follow will also all be blamed on the EU, creating even more xenophobia and anger than there is in that camp now. The chances of them taking responsibility for their actions and owning the consequences are precisely 0.

Under a no-deal Brexit, Scotland will definitely hold an independence referendum and independence is much more likely to win then in the previous one. Northern Ireland will be proper fucked, from both a likely increase in terror activities and economically (GoT finishing won't help either; the degree to which Northern Ireland's economy was being bolstered by one TV series production is pretty jaw-dropping). That will push the timetable for a unification referendum forward as well, although the timing of that will be delicate.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Remember that in the last two general elections (and the referendum for that matter) a lot of voters held no correlation between five and seven years of crippling, ideologically-driven austerity and a sluggish economy, a collapse in the full time jobs market and rapidly growing inequality (not to mention collapsing police numbers and a drop in NHS staffing), and a Tory government, instead blaming it on immigrants. The ability of people to blind themselves to actual cause and effect is jaw-dropping.

If Britain leaves with a no-deal, it will be firmly 100% blamed on the EU by Brexiters, and the economic hardships that follow will also all be blamed on the EU, creating even more xenophobia and anger than there is in that camp now. The chances of them taking responsibility for their actions and owning the consequences are precisely 0.

Under a no-deal Brexit, Scotland will definitely hold an independence referendum and independence is much more likely to win then in the previous one. Northern Ireland will be proper fucked, from both a likely increase in terror activities and economically (GoT finishing won't help either; the degree to which Northern Ireland's economy was being bolstered by one TV series production is pretty jaw-dropping). That will push the timetable for a unification referendum forward as well, although the timing of that will be delicate.

"The EU is punishing us for leaving" does sound like a nice and simple narrative for externalising blame for all that ills.

So there's at least one possible silver lining to a no-deal. Would come at the cost of a pretty large and dark cloud though.

What was the contribution of GoT to NI's GDP? I assume NI is no longer the UK's ship-building yard.

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They all are (with the exception of Stewart, to some extent). They are campaigning on a bunch of nonsense, with no factual base in observable reality. If this leadership campaign is anything to go by, then it's that June is just an extension of May.

We have the more reasonable candidates, likesay Gove, who are saying they will leave with a deal. The deal on offer is the one negotiated between the EU and the UK under PM May. The EU won't re-open it. So how are those Mayan candidates going to succeed where the original failed, namely getting that deal thru parliament? Yes, arguably anyone from that bunch has probably more charisma than their predecessor, but does anybody think that's enough? So, seriously, how are they gonna get May's deal passed?

Then we have the even more detached from reality candidates, like Johnson. Who basically say, we will leave by October, deal, or not. We will withold the payment of our debts to the EU. That will show them and offer us a sweetheart deal. Spoiler: It won't. All it will do, is destroy whatever shred of good faith and trust is left on the EU's side. They will see the UK off into no-deal land, and wait for it to crawl back with a signed cheque and its name under the WA, before there will be any future trade talk, or participation in EU programs, which the UK quite frankly wants and needs. But hey, lies on the campaign trail. I am genuinely not sure, whether any of the dingbat candidates are crazy enough to actually go for no-deal. I doubt it, but with guys like Raab, or McVei, who knows.

And then we have Stewart. Who comes across as sane and sound, when compared to the other contenders. Which suggests, he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.

 

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3 hours ago, Spockydog said:

The way Johnson is being kept from public gaze, and scrutiny, indicates shows how unfit for PM he is. Fucking coward.

 

Unfortunately the strategy works. We had the same thing with Doug Ford here in Ontario last year.

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5 hours ago, Spockydog said:

The way Johnson is being kept from public gaze, and scrutiny, shows how unfit for PM he is. Fucking coward.

 

How fucked up are those supporting him, who know he has to be protected from himself. They know more than anyone how unfit he is for higher office. 

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Anyway.

FT:  Confidential cabinet note warns UK not ready for a no-deal Brexit on October 31 [I am not sure if it is behind hte paywall, but let's be honest FT's is not particularly difficult to bypass]

However c&p from their site is a pain.

So short summary. Leaving with no-deal on October 31st is bad idea. The UK is far from ready for it. It would need 6-8 months engagement with the pharmaceutical to ensure adequate are in place to build stockpiles of medicine by October 31st.

4-5 months (at least) are needed to improve trader readiness for potential new border checks.

Those two things in particular make it extremely difficult for any PM to conclude preparations for a no-deal departure on October 31st.

Foreign office would need another 1-2 months to communicate with the more than 1m expats in the EU and allow them to prepare for the uncertainty concerning their legal status.

The UK had delivered 85%  of their core no deal preparation, providing a minimum [!!!] viable level of capability. Of the not prepared stuff, the shortcmoings are material.

Key input on that stuff came from Barcley, so one of the Brexiter in cabinet.

Javid , who is banging on about Hammond not coughing up more money for no deal prep, was apparently given additional 500m in April, which are apparently already spent. Javid wants/need another 1bn for no-deal border preparations.

I'll leave it up to your imagination, whether Boris is crazy enough to leave the EU without a deal on October 31st.

 

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What worries me is the following:

1) Boris has said that the UK should leave in October, deal or no deal.

2) He has very slim chances of renegotiating the deal with the EU, who insist May's deal, no deal and cancelled Brexit are the only options. 

3) Result: the UK crashes out without a deal on October 31st

(Please tell me I'm wrong and why!)

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On 6/12/2019 at 8:08 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

........

What happens with Scotland under a no-deal scenario? I would think that a half decent Brexit deal could prevent Scotland from going down the independence road, but a no-deal might sent it running to Brussels as fast as it can. Scotland should do some serious polling about a mood for independence in a no-deal situation.

Is Northern Ireland screwed with a no-deal?

Ironically, if Scotland left it would increase the chances of the Torries winning future elections as there goes a whole heap of lefty votes. 

Of course, it might also require a new Hadrian’s wall to stop the trade issues that have caused Brexit the headaches in Ireland. 

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