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Stannis Eats No Peaches

UK Politics: The End of May

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2 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

true, but very rare, certainly too rare to negate the point; or do we have to be 100% literal in everything written today?

Really? Wasn't there a big scandal a few years back with French winemakers adding antifreeze to cheap wine to make it taste better? Don't people in India regularly  die after imbibing methanol laced spirits? As long as liqour has been made, people have tried to make it cheaper to produce by adding nasty stuff. 

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1 hour ago, maarsen said:

Really? Wasn't there a big scandal a few years back with French winemakers adding antifreeze to cheap wine to make it taste better? Don't people in India regularly  die after imbibing methanol laced spirits? As long as liqour has been made, people have tried to make it cheaper to produce by adding nasty stuff. 

Pretty sure Which Tyler already made a joke pre-empting this point. 

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7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The only problem is that the one legal drug in most countries hasn't exactly got a good track record for not still causing misery, violent crime and bad health outcomes. Prohibition doesn't work, but legalisation, taxation and regulation isn't a panacea.

True, it isn't the perfect solution but there arn't nearly as many people whos lives are ruined or the huge amount of violence and murder in communities where alcohol is brewed as there are in parts of the world where coca plants or poppies are grown, nor does it fund organised crime, morally,legalization,taxation and regulation is a far better proposition than what we currently have.

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4 hours ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

All the while it's true that legalizing certain drugs would help stopping certain crime, it's also true that buying and using said drugs today is sustaining those same criminals. I refuse to touch cocaine for precisely that reason, and I don't think you get a free pass just because you're for legalization. 

That is a fair and commendable point of view to have, the thing is, most people can't be objective in that way and its increase in popularity over the last few years points to most people not caring enough to not do it.

I do find the hypocrisy of some people-the ones who like to buy fair trade coffee, are very concious of the environment etc yet shove coke up their noses every weekend sadly funny.

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5 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

This feels like the last GOP primary. So many names, so many winners. And you'll end up with the worst person possible. So instead of the apprentice, you will go with I am a celebrity get me outta here. So Andrea Loathsome and Trump can compare their tv histories at their next state visit. What a time to be alive to witness all of that.

Well, at least with her, you had the chance to vote her to eat shit. I hope all of you used that opportunity back then.

I think you might be confusing Andrea Leadsom with Nadine Dorries in terms of which crazy Brexiteer MP went on I'm a Celebrity, which is admittedly an easy mistake to make.

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12 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

what a depressing list

 

Very true. Javid's backstory is very interesting though, has come up the hard way, fighting for everything.

However, perhaps you want someone from the twat/loony wing to get elected, so they crash and burn the party as it exists today and we get something more 21st century emerging out of the rubble.

 

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Boris Johnson accused of cowardice as he dodges public scrutiny

Quote

 

Boris Johnson has been accused of “not having the guts to face the people” in the Conservative leadership race, coming under fire for dodging interviews and refusing to confirm his participation in a BBC debate with other candidates.

Johnson, the clear frontrunner with MPs and the Tory membership, was implicitly criticised by several of his rivals who said the race must put all the candidates under proper scrutiny.

 

Over to you, News Media. 

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7 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

 

Very true. Javid's backstory is very interesting though, has come up the hard way, fighting for everything.

However, perhaps you want someone from the twat/loony wing to get elected, so they crash and burn the party as it exists today and we get something more 21st century emerging out of the rubble.

 

If the Conservatives crash and burn, the Brexit Party will eclipse them, which would certainly be more 21st century.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, williamjm said:

I think you might be confusing Andrea Leadsom with Nadine Dorries in terms of which crazy Brexiteer MP went on I'm a Celebrity, which is admittedly an easy mistake to make.

Ooops. :blushing:

You are of course correct. Somehow I had Loathsome in mind with I am a Celebrity... Then the idea amused me so much that it developed a dynamic of its own. First the supposed dignity of the office paired with the TV show. Then Trump and said contestant talking about it on a state visit. I had to eat cockroaches on TV. And Twitler explaining, said for him it was harder, that he also had to eat with cochroaches, and black folks. And how even kept Omarosa.

Anyway, thanks for being a killjoy, well, and the factual correction on who went there.

Since it makes little difference with regards to Brexit who wins that contest, I am in favour of Tories going with the most batshit crazy they can find. Don't worry, Brexit will still be the dominating issue.

Anyway, whoever becomes Britain's Next Top Tory, they will inherit the same divided parliament with Bercow determined to stop no deal. The EU won't re-open the WA. Those are simple realities, all the bluster about Britain just forfeiting on its debts will make a difference. And they all know it, I mean, they even prefer to talk about their recreational use of drugs, just to distract from that. So just enjoy the ride.

 

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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22 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If the Conservatives crash and burn, the Brexit Party will eclipse them, which would certainly be more 21st century.

:ack:

No doubt.

I obviously meant the centrist, more sensible element that the core membership has been free riding on for far too long in General Elections. Now that the loonies have found a set of former Labour and some former BNP supporters to hoodwink and exploit with their mirage of hard Brexit, maybe this wing can find an identity.

Probably a pipedream as it looks like organizational capacity on the ground is still a huge thing in elections and unless CUK get their act together quickly (doubtful), you are not going see a mass breakout, but a resigned wait for the right wingers to crash and burn the party before stepping aside from the leadership.

Lib Dems! Please don't bollocks it up this time.

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Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, SeanF said:

If the Conservatives crash and burn, the Brexit Party will eclipse them, which would certainly be more 21st century.

The Brexit Party are a single-issue party with no policies outside of Brexit, which ultimately hurt them in the by-election (where it turned out that not having a single answer for questions on the NHS, policing and education is a good way of pissing off people who might otherwise vote for you). That may change in the medium term if Brexit doesn't happen, but if it does (in whatever fashion) in October, the reasons for the Brexit and UKIP parties' continued existence becomes moot.

Quote

Lib Dems! Please don't bollocks it up this time.

 

They will probably find a way.

Quote

unless CUK get their act together quickly (doubtful)

CUK are already collapsing. Half their MPs have quit, including their most prominent member, and are likely to defect to the Liberal Democrats. The remainder of the party will probably lapse into irrelevance before doing the same thing.

Edited by Werthead

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-no-deal-labour-parliament-prorogue-suspend-tory-leadership-corbyn-a8953896.html

Labour will mount a fresh bid to seize control of the Commons agenda to prevent the next Tory prime minister forcing through a no-deal Brexit.

 

The cross-party bid, led by Jeremy Corbyn, would see opposition MPs hijack the parliamentary timetable on 25 June, allowing them to introduce legislation to prevent the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal.

 

It comes amid mounting fears a new Tory leader could try to force through a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, with several contenders vowing to leave on that date, with or without a deal.

 

Dominic Raab, the ex-Brexit secretary, provoked outrage when he mooted suspending parliament to prevent MPs from blocking Brexit.

I still can't quite my head around ANY MP actually suggesting it in the first place; we live in a truly weird political climate

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1 hour ago, Which Tyler said:

Most Conservatives - certainly this fucking shambles - value themselves and the good of their moribund party ahead of the good of the country. They know if they don't deliver Brexit, they're going to become unelectable for some time to come, as they'll lose their Brexit votes to the Brexit Party and Zombie UKIP, and their Remain votes to the Lib Dems.

Brexit has become an existential crisis for the Conservative Party, which it isn't for any of the other parties (even Labour, although it's problematic for them), so the next leader has to sound as tough as possible and make sure Brexit happens on October 31st even if it blows up the entire country, as long as it saves the Tory Party.

The only two options for them are either getting Brexit done, or holding a General Election very quickly after the leadership contest and a brief pissing contest against the EU that they will lose, so maybe in September, but they can then blame Corbyn for everything that happens afterwards (so Ref3, a further delay of Brexit into 2020 etc) and subsequently hold the party together in opposition.

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Most Conservatives - certainly this fucking shambles - value themselves and the good of their moribund party ahead of the good of the country. They know if they don't deliver Brexit, they're going to become unelectable for some time to come, as they'll lose their Brexit votes to the Brexit Party and Zombie UKIP, and their Remain votes to the Lib Dems.

Brexit has become an existential crisis for the Conservative Party, which it isn't for any of the other parties (even Labour, although it's problematic for them), so the next leader has to sound as tough as possible and make sure Brexit happens on October 31st even if it blows up the entire country, as long as it saves the Tory Party.

The only two options for them are either getting Brexit done, or holding a General Election very quickly after the leadership contest and a brief pissing contest against the EU that they will lose, so maybe in September, but they can then blame Corbyn for everything that happens afterwards (so Ref3, a further delay of Brexit into 2020 etc) and subsequently hold the party together in opposition.

If most of the doom predicted for a no-deal Brexit comes true with a no-deal Brexit doesn't that make the Tories screwed either way? Though perhaps if Britain crashes and burns with a no-deal there's really no party to the right for voters to run off to, so ZUKIP and Brexit Party will be equally blamed for demanding this outcome. So I guess at least that makes the Tories able to hold on to their looney fringe, but likely lose a lot of their center-right support.

What happens with Scotland under a no-deal scenario? I would think that a half decent Brexit deal could prevent Scotland from going down the independence road, but a no-deal might sent it running to Brussels as fast as it can. Scotland should do some serious polling about a mood for independence in a no-deal situation.

Is Northern Ireland screwed with a no-deal?

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Just put a tenner on Stewart @ 22/1. He comes across really well, and amazingly, I actually quite like the bloke. 

 

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8 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I think Boris' team have quietly told him to keep quiet and just let all the other candidates wipe themselves out first before putting himself back in the limelight. A pretty sensible strategy given his history of verbal diarrhoea.

It is a bit risky because it allows the other candidates to attack Boris without him responding directly.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If most of the doom predicted for a no-deal Brexit comes true with a no-deal Brexit doesn't that make the Tories screwed either way? Though perhaps if Britain crashes and burns with a no-deal there's really no party to the right for voters to run off to, so ZUKIP and Brexit Party will be equally blamed for demanding this outcome. So I guess at least that makes the Tories able to hold on to their looney fringe, but likely lose a lot of their center-right support.

What happens with Scotland under a no-deal scenario? I would think that a half decent Brexit deal could prevent Scotland from going down the independence road, but a no-deal might sent it running to Brussels as fast as it can. Scotland should do some serious polling about a mood for independence in a no-deal situation.

Is Northern Ireland screwed with a no-deal?

Remember that in the last two general elections (and the referendum for that matter) a lot of voters held no correlation between five and seven years of crippling, ideologically-driven austerity and a sluggish economy, a collapse in the full time jobs market and rapidly growing inequality (not to mention collapsing police numbers and a drop in NHS staffing), and a Tory government, instead blaming it on immigrants. The ability of people to blind themselves to actual cause and effect is jaw-dropping.

If Britain leaves with a no-deal, it will be firmly 100% blamed on the EU by Brexiters, and the economic hardships that follow will also all be blamed on the EU, creating even more xenophobia and anger than there is in that camp now. The chances of them taking responsibility for their actions and owning the consequences are precisely 0.

Under a no-deal Brexit, Scotland will definitely hold an independence referendum and independence is much more likely to win then in the previous one. Northern Ireland will be proper fucked, from both a likely increase in terror activities and economically (GoT finishing won't help either; the degree to which Northern Ireland's economy was being bolstered by one TV series production is pretty jaw-dropping). That will push the timetable for a unification referendum forward as well, although the timing of that will be delicate.

Edited by Werthead

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Remember that in the last two general elections (and the referendum for that matter) a lot of voters held no correlation between five and seven years of crippling, ideologically-driven austerity and a sluggish economy, a collapse in the full time jobs market and rapidly growing inequality (not to mention collapsing police numbers and a drop in NHS staffing), and a Tory government, instead blaming it on immigrants. The ability of people to blind themselves to actual cause and effect is jaw-dropping.

If Britain leaves with a no-deal, it will be firmly 100% blamed on the EU by Brexiters, and the economic hardships that follow will also all be blamed on the EU, creating even more xenophobia and anger than there is in that camp now. The chances of them taking responsibility for their actions and owning the consequences are precisely 0.

Under a no-deal Brexit, Scotland will definitely hold an independence referendum and independence is much more likely to win then in the previous one. Northern Ireland will be proper fucked, from both a likely increase in terror activities and economically (GoT finishing won't help either; the degree to which Northern Ireland's economy was being bolstered by one TV series production is pretty jaw-dropping). That will push the timetable for a unification referendum forward as well, although the timing of that will be delicate.

"The EU is punishing us for leaving" does sound like a nice and simple narrative for externalising blame for all that ills.

So there's at least one possible silver lining to a no-deal. Would come at the cost of a pretty large and dark cloud though.

What was the contribution of GoT to NI's GDP? I assume NI is no longer the UK's ship-building yard.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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Posted (edited)

The way Johnson is being kept from public gaze, and scrutiny, shows how unfit for PM he is. Fucking coward.

 

Edited by Spockydog

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