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Stannis Eats No Peaches

UK Politics: The End of May

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Posted (edited)

They all are (with the exception of Stewart, to some extent). They are campaigning on a bunch of nonsense, with no factual base in observable reality. If this leadership campaign is anything to go by, then it's that June is just an extension of May.

We have the more reasonable candidates, likesay Gove, who are saying they will leave with a deal. The deal on offer is the one negotiated between the EU and the UK under PM May. The EU won't re-open it. So how are those Mayan candidates going to succeed where the original failed, namely getting that deal thru parliament? Yes, arguably anyone from that bunch has probably more charisma than their predecessor, but does anybody think that's enough? So, seriously, how are they gonna get May's deal passed?

Then we have the even more detached from reality candidates, like Johnson. Who basically say, we will leave by October, deal, or not. We will withold the payment of our debts to the EU. That will show them and offer us a sweetheart deal. Spoiler: It won't. All it will do, is destroy whatever shred of good faith and trust is left on the EU's side. They will see the UK off into no-deal land, and wait for it to crawl back with a signed cheque and its name under the WA, before there will be any future trade talk, or participation in EU programs, which the UK quite frankly wants and needs. But hey, lies on the campaign trail. I am genuinely not sure, whether any of the dingbat candidates are crazy enough to actually go for no-deal. I doubt it, but with guys like Raab, or McVei, who knows.

And then we have Stewart. Who comes across as sane and sound, when compared to the other contenders. Which suggests, he doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell.

 

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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3 hours ago, Spockydog said:

The way Johnson is being kept from public gaze, and scrutiny, indicates shows how unfit for PM he is. Fucking coward.

 

Unfortunately the strategy works. We had the same thing with Doug Ford here in Ontario last year.

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5 hours ago, Spockydog said:

The way Johnson is being kept from public gaze, and scrutiny, shows how unfit for PM he is. Fucking coward.

 

How fucked up are those supporting him, who know he has to be protected from himself. They know more than anyone how unfit he is for higher office. 

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Anyway.

FT:  Confidential cabinet note warns UK not ready for a no-deal Brexit on October 31 [I am not sure if it is behind hte paywall, but let's be honest FT's is not particularly difficult to bypass]

However c&p from their site is a pain.

So short summary. Leaving with no-deal on October 31st is bad idea. The UK is far from ready for it. It would need 6-8 months engagement with the pharmaceutical to ensure adequate are in place to build stockpiles of medicine by October 31st.

4-5 months (at least) are needed to improve trader readiness for potential new border checks.

Those two things in particular make it extremely difficult for any PM to conclude preparations for a no-deal departure on October 31st.

Foreign office would need another 1-2 months to communicate with the more than 1m expats in the EU and allow them to prepare for the uncertainty concerning their legal status.

The UK had delivered 85%  of their core no deal preparation, providing a minimum [!!!] viable level of capability. Of the not prepared stuff, the shortcmoings are material.

Key input on that stuff came from Barcley, so one of the Brexiter in cabinet.

Javid , who is banging on about Hammond not coughing up more money for no deal prep, was apparently given additional 500m in April, which are apparently already spent. Javid wants/need another 1bn for no-deal border preparations.

I'll leave it up to your imagination, whether Boris is crazy enough to leave the EU without a deal on October 31st.

 

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What worries me is the following:

1) Boris has said that the UK should leave in October, deal or no deal.

2) He has very slim chances of renegotiating the deal with the EU, who insist May's deal, no deal and cancelled Brexit are the only options. 

3) Result: the UK crashes out without a deal on October 31st

(Please tell me I'm wrong and why!)

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Seems the bookmaker odds on no-deal Brexit should be narrowing a lot.

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On 6/12/2019 at 8:08 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

........

What happens with Scotland under a no-deal scenario? I would think that a half decent Brexit deal could prevent Scotland from going down the independence road, but a no-deal might sent it running to Brussels as fast as it can. Scotland should do some serious polling about a mood for independence in a no-deal situation.

Is Northern Ireland screwed with a no-deal?

Ironically, if Scotland left it would increase the chances of the Torries winning future elections as there goes a whole heap of lefty votes. 

Of course, it might also require a new Hadrian’s wall to stop the trade issues that have caused Brexit the headaches in Ireland. 

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7 hours ago, Erik of Hazelfield said:

What worries me is the following:

1) Boris has said that the UK should leave in October, deal or no deal. 

2) He has very slim chances of renegotiating the deal with the EU, who insist May's deal, no deal and cancelled Brexit are the only options. 

3) Result: the UK crashes out without a deal on October 31st

(Please tell me I'm wrong and why!)

I think it all boils down to 1).

Small fun excercise.

Describe Johnson with adjectives or nouns. Your top ten list of his attributes.

I know the spoiler tag was/is pretentious². I simply could not figure out another way to get you to think about it without guiding/influencing it.

Spoiler

I bet within the top five attributes of Boris Johnson for any poster here was either liar, or lack of principles/convictions, If not both. And that cuts both ways here. So why would you believe him on leaving with no-deal on October 31st?

So that looks more like campaign trail nonsense. Like May was going to get back to Brussels with a strong mandate if Westminster rejected the WA, and then she will renegotiate it with a stronger hand, for realz. For May this shenanigans was about staying in office (for bit longer), for Johnson this is about getting into office. I mean the Tory membership appears to be as dense as a blackhole at this point. They want to hear about standing tall, walking away with no-deal, rule Britania etc. But once they stand in front of empty supermarket shelves, they will all forget about being in favour of no-deal, they will hold the then sitting PM responsible.

2) That is most certainly true. However, I'd like to add 4th, another extension with a referendum attached. Macron might not be particularly happy about that. But I assume that option is still on the table. But that also applies for the other hopeless hopefuls in the running. I said it a few posts before, the political realities have not changed. The EU will not re-open talks on the WA, Westminster won't pass the deal, and there's no majority for no-deal either. But admittedly I think the odds for no-deal have gone up after yesterday's voting fiasco. For once, that was not Corbyn's fault. For most part that was on the spineless Tory rebels, who forgot to rebel.

 

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I expect Boris Johnson would roll the dice and go for an election.  If he wins, he can go for a very hard Brexit.  If he loses, it's someone else's problem (unless he comes back with 310 or so seats).

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Some polls are suggesting that with Johnson in charge, the Tories would win with an actual majority, which is jaw-dropping. I can only assume the Trump effect, that a lot of people will vote for someone they recognise off the telly, absolutely regardless of their competence, past history or ability to do the job.

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47 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Some polls are suggesting that with Johnson in charge, the Tories would win with an actual majority, which is jaw-dropping. I can only assume the Trump effect, that a lot of people will vote for someone they recognise off the telly, absolutely regardless of their competence, past history or ability to do the job.

People admire him for the same reason they admired Mark Antony.  They see him as being "Inimitable at Sex."

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Round 1 of voting

Boris Johnson – 114

Jeremy Hunt – 43

Michael Gove – 37

Dominic Raab – 27

Sajid Javid – 23

Matthew Hancock – 20

Rory Stewart – 19

Andrea Leadsom – 11 (out)

Mark Harper – 10 (out)

Esther McVey – 9 (out)

 

 

I don't think there is any way Boris is not in the final 2.

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Just now, Pebble said:

I don't think there is any way Boris is not in the final 2.

And thus a No-Deal Brexit.

Time to step up the overseas job applications.

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6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

And thus a No-Deal Brexit.

Time to step up the overseas job applications.

Could we perhaps have an early Guy Fawkes celebration?  Only do it right this time?

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21 minutes ago, Pebble said:

Round 1 of voting

Boris Johnson – 114

Jeremy Hunt – 43

Michael Gove – 37

Dominic Raab – 27

Sajid Javid – 23

Matthew Hancock – 20

Rory Stewart – 19

Andrea Leadsom – 11 (out)

Mark Harper – 10 (out)

Esther McVey – 9 (out)

 

 

I don't think there is any way Boris is not in the final 2.

Boris' momentum will now be unstoppable.

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48 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Boris' momentum will now be unstoppable.

Until his head meets the brick wall of reality in October

He will be PM of the Titanic party, for me the only question now is
- does he sink the ship with no deal
- does he u-turn away from no deal, play dress up and get on a lifeboat of either a ref, a GE or a deal?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Pebble said:

Andrea Leadsom – 11 (out) 

Mark Harper – 10 (out)

Esther McVey – 9 (out) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zehrS20ZvX4

With McVey and Leadsom gone, who is the next best crazy person to cheer for now?

45 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

Until his head meets the brick wall of reality in October

He will be PM of the Titanic party, for me the only question now is
- does he sink the ship with no deal
- does he u-turn away from no deal, play dress up and get on a lifeboat of either a ref, a GE or a deal?

Dress up. He will play the tough guy for a bit after he's become leader. Giving some strong man speeches for domestic consumption. Fly to Brussels, they will sit him down, give him a scolding behind closed doors, or slap him down publicly there. Depending on how he acts there. But like you said, reality has that point of being a pretty thick wall (even thicker than Boris) he is going to run into eventually. He will do a u-turn and go for a second referendum for the good fo the country.

If remain wins, he will spin it as him being the saviour of the UK, that took the country back from the fringe of the abyss (where he helped put it in the first place, but I think werthead said something about the memory of the electorate before). Oh, have a guess how the following GE will play out for Labour with Corbyn in charge.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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5 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Their new name is rubbish. It should really be the Democratic Liberals.

I was suggesting The Remain Party, but you win!

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