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Stannis Eats No Peaches

UK Politics: The End of May

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8 hours ago, Werthead said:

Watching all four of the rest of them tear into Raab was quite entertaining. Otherwise pretty much as you expect: excessive bloviating from Gove, empty rhetoric from Javid and flies buzzing in and out of Hunt's head, meeting no obstacles along the way.

Rory Stewart emerged as the only one of them remotely in touch with Actual Planet Earth.

Nothing new there then

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I only saw bits and pieces but Rory has consistently impressed me, in comparison to many of the other candidates (who were almost all terrible). I thought he did well in the debate, he's relatively charismatic and seems to be able to articulate the issues in a clear manner, without resorting to bland 'believe in me' rhetoric. 

(btw, Jeremy Hunt's "I was an entrepreneur, I know how to do deals" was so Trumpian I felt sick)

The problem is Stewart is simply not popular (yet) with the conservative voters:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/17/three-quarters-conservative-party-members-think-bo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=conservative_members_june_2019_good_leader

with 50% thinking he would be a poor leader. I think that is unfortunate but it might have more to do with his strange almost computer generated appearance and awkward nature. The more you hear him speak the more you get on board with what he's saying. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I only saw bits and pieces but Rory has consistently impressed me, in comparison to many of the other candidates (who were almost all terrible). I thought he did well in the debate, he's relatively charismatic and seems to be able to articulate the issues in a clear manner, without resorting to bland 'believe in me' rhetoric. 

(btw, Jeremy Hunt's "I was an entrepreneur, I know how to do deals" was so Trumpian I felt sick)

The problem is Stewart is simply not popular (yet) with the conservative voters:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/17/three-quarters-conservative-party-members-think-bo?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=conservative_members_june_2019_good_leader

with 50% thinking he would be a poor leader. I think that is unfortunate but it might have more to do with his strange almost computer generated appearance and awkward nature. The more you hear him speak the more you get on board with what he's saying. 



I think the real reason for Stewart's lack of popularity is his stance on Brexit (I mean this goes without saying right). He is the continuity May candidate and he comes across more remainy than her - I mean she didn't come across remainy at all, but lots of Brexiteers think she did. Support for Brexit now is all about denying reality, in one way or another, and as Stewart is refusing to do that he's not much of a Brexiteer. He's made it much clearer than May ever did that he only thinks Brexit should happen to honour the referendum; she gave the impression that she'd become convinced, or at least accepting, that there would be upsides - he doesn't think there will be any. 

edit: sorry, forgot my punchline: William Hague. You don't not get elected Tory leader for looking weird: Hague looked like a foetus. You do get denied, despite obvious ability, for having the wrong views on Europe. 

Edited by Chaircat Meow

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11 hours ago, Heartofice said:

I only saw bits and pieces but Rory has consistently impressed me, in comparison to many of the other candidates (who were almost all terrible). I thought he did well in the debate, he's relatively charismatic and seems to be able to articulate the issues in a clear manner, without resorting to bland 'believe in me' rhetoric.

He does seem to be worrying some of the rival camps, with the Torygraph leading with a front page story about him being a former spy. It does seem an odd story to run, given that everyone already seemed to assume he worked for MI6, and I'm not sure it's making him any less electable.

Of course, he still doesn't have a chance of winning this time but he might be making himself a leading contender for the next leadership election after Boris manages to mess up Brexit.

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2 hours ago, williamjm said:

He does seem to be worrying some of the rival camps, with the Torygraph leading with a front page story about him being a former spy. It does seem an odd story to run, given that everyone already seemed to assume he worked for MI6, and I'm not sure it's making him any less electable.

Of course, he still doesn't have a chance of winning this time but he might be making himself a leading contender for the next leadership election after Boris manages to mess up Brexit.

Isn't Brexit going to mess up Boris? 

If Boris (or whoever the PM is) does nothing does that mean Brexit just happens? I guess that means the new PMs job on Brexit specifically, if they are a no-dealer, is extremely easy. Sit on your hands and let the October deadline pass and voila! the UK is out of the EU. If a deal is to be had it'll be up to the EU to come knocking and propose changes.

Is the EU prepared accept no deal? If the EU doesn't have a walk away option it's in a weak position leading up to the October deadline. If Boris (or whomever) believes the EU isn't prepared to walk away and that they will deal at the 11th hour to save Britain from itself, then the PM is going to walk headlong into no-deal and wonder what happened when it hits them on the arse as they walk out the EU exit door.

If the EU is prepared to walk away, then it needs to say, again and again until it sinks in that the only options are no-deal, the May deal, or remain, the EU will live with any of those 3 outcomes, and won't negotiate a plan D.

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1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If the EU is prepared to walk away, then it needs to say, again and again until it sinks in that the only options are no-deal, the May deal, or remain, the EU will live with any of those 3 outcomes, and won't negotiate a plan D.

 


It is and has been doing that for ages now. It's not gonna sink in but that's not on the EU, they couldn't possibly have been clearer about it.


 

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3 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

 


It is and has been doing that for ages now. It's not gonna sink in but that's not on the EU, they couldn't possibly have been clearer about it.


 

Yeah, but do they reaaaaaalllllly mean it?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Isn't Brexit going to mess up Boris? 

Yes.

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If Boris (or whoever the PM is) does nothing does that mean Brexit just happens? I guess that means the new PMs job on Brexit specifically, if they are a no-dealer, is extremely easy. Sit on your hands and let the October deadline pass and voila! the UK is out of the EU. If a deal is to be had it'll be up to the EU to come knocking and propose changes. 

That would at the very least lead to a vote of no confidence and a new GE, if MPs can't find a way to block that. Remember no-deal is one of the options MPs are very much against. Even more so than they are against the alternatives.

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Is the EU prepared accept no deal? If the EU doesn't have a walk away option it's in a weak position leading up to the October deadline. If Boris (or whomever) believes the EU isn't prepared to walk away and that they will deal at the 11th hour to save Britain from itself, then the PM is going to walk headlong into no-deal and wonder what happened when it hits them on the arse as they walk out the EU exit door. 

If the EU is prepared to walk away, then it needs to say, again and again until it sinks in that the only options are no-deal, the May deal, or remain, the EU will live with any of those 3 outcomes, and won't negotiate a plan D. 

Yes, it is. It's the least desirable outcome. The message on that has been pretty consistent and clear, sign the WA, withdraw article 50 (remain), or leave without a deal. So I am curious to see what happens, when the next PM comes Brussels with the request for another extension. While no-deal would be extremely unpleasent for the EU, it would be just be a complete disaster for the UK. All the bravado and machismo (as Stewart called it) won't change that. Objective reality and stuff. 

 

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Sit on your hands and let the October deadline pass and voila!

This is probably Boris' (or his men in black minders') strategy :lmao:It seems to be working for his Tory leadership campaign, so if he wins, maybe the new PM will get wheeled back into the asylum and restrained there until well into November, just to see what has happened by then.

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Brexiteer

"Brexiter" is fine. Using "Brexiteer" is playing into the image they - rather desperately - want to project of being romantic heroes out to slay the evil villain of the EU.

And yes, after electing Grey Major, William Hague - who looked like a giant baby, although he was actually a sane and canny politician (at least by Tory standards) - and Iain Duncan Smith - a man who would go on to effectively kill people using the department he was in charge of (which in many cases would lead to you getting arrested or at least sacked, but not the case here) - as leaders, the Tory Party really hasn't got a problem electing someone as leader who has an odd appearance. That at least is laudable, as Major and Hague were capable politicians, whilst Smith was not (and neither is Johnson, Raab, Gove or Hunt, at least).

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Raab is out.  

 

Boris Johnson 126 +12

Jeremy Hunt 46 +3

Michael Gove 41 +4

Dominic Raab 30 +3

Sajid Javid 33 +10

Rory Stewart 37 +18

 

 

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