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Stannis Eats No Peaches

UK Politics: The End of May

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7 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Has he really. Who cares. He's said some really stupid things about the GoT finale, apparently anyone who complained about the bad plotting and piss poor characterisation is 'entitled.' That's Dunt all over, he's terrified of being against popular opinion in his own little circle of right on fruit munchers. I am bored of him. 

Really?

I haven'T read whatever Dunt hd to say about GoT, nor do I care to find out tbh. I agree with 90% of his political writing/Assessments.  You don't like his writings, fair enough. But before we got into a (honestly speaking rather dull discussion) about what political commentators we like (are there trading cards for that sort of thing?). Your guess for next Tory leader, and (not necessarily the same) your choice.

15 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

There's a lot to criticise her for in the time between taking the premiership and triggering art 50. Not that it was rushed, but that it was ignored for too long - and yes, I do believe she wouldn't have been under so much pressure to trigger if she'd been in the process of building consensus, cross-party talks etc. 

All of that is a fair and legit critcism. However, I think the tabloids would have egged her on to trigger it, and thus by extension also the conservative grass roots.

By all accounts (feel free to correct me on that), but British politics does not really seem to be build upon reaching consensus. You have a majority, you plow thru on your party manifestos. I mean you could see her own party revolting, for the mere fact of her starting talks with Labour, and god forbid offering him something. Infact she has offered very little, but that was already too much.

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4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

All of that is a fair and legit critcism. However, I think the tabloids would have egged her on to trigger it, and thus by extension also the conservative grass roots.

By all accounts (feel free to correct me on that), but British politics does not really seem to be build upon reaching consensus. You have a majority, you plow thru on your party manifestos. I mean you could see her own party revolting, for the mere fact of her starting talks with Labour, and god forbid offering him something. Infact she has offered very little, but that was already too much.

I think it depends how known it was that concensus was being sought. Though of course, the tabloids would have stirred shit up just for the giggles anyway.

Yup, British politics is set up to be adversarial, but that's not a good thing (IMO) and there are times to put aside those differences and work together - it's happened before and it sure as hell should have happened here, which goes triple once she pissed away her majority.

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Yup, British politics is set up to be adversarial, but that's not a good thing (IMO) and there are times to put aside those differences and work together - it's happened before and it sure as hell should have happened here, which goes triple once she pissed away her majority.

Not for me to judge. Afterall you have (one of) the oldest Democracies. But as you said, you don't have a consensus based tradition/system. So that looks like a tough ask from a great politician to defy the political customs/traditions they have been brought up in (afterall the current politicans are a product of that system). And without being mean or nasty, I think we can agree, that May was not really blessed with greatness as a politician. And arguably, she also underestimated what Brexit actually meant/was. Not that the next Tory hopeful will (presumably) be any wiser on that account.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger

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I really don't see what someone's opinion on some random fantasy show has to do with their outlook on anything else.

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Really?

I haven'T read whatever Dunt hd to say about GoT, nor do I care to find out tbh. I agree with 90% of his political writing/Assessments.  You don't like his writings, fair enough. But before we got into a (honestly speaking rather dull discussion) about what political commentators we like (are there trading cards for that sort of thing?). Your guess for next Tory leader, and (not necessarily the same) your choice.

I don't care to guess, genuinely don't know.

Preferences:

1. Rory Stewart 

2. Michael Gove

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7 hours ago, A wilding said:

Well it currently looks like your choice is going to be between Boris "Leave in October with No Deal" Johnson and someone slightly less obnoxious , probably Gove or Hunt. Though this being the Tory party there are doubtless many twists to come.

Its a sad sad state of affairs “we’re in, that has led to this ominous wedding.”  where Hunt is the slightly less obnoxious one

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11 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Has he really. Who cares. He's said some really stupid things about the GoT finale, apparently anyone who complained about the bad plotting and piss poor characterisation is 'entitled.' That's Dunt all over, he's terrified of being against popular opinion in his own little circle of right on fruit munchers. I am bored of him. 

I always though Dunt was rhyming slang.

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

1. Rory Stewart

Of all the options; he probably is the best of a bad bunch. At least he's capable of sounding reasonable, even when he isn't.

 

ETA: Ouch:

 

Edited by Which Tyler

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I'll take this moment to nominate that old Everton Great (or, these days, Really Big) most-certainly-not-a-tory, Neville Southall, for the next PM.

You'd have to get him into politics and have an election first, but I think this idea beats the current reality by light years.

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33 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

 

ETA: Ouch:

 

My man.

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20 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

How about Andrea Loathsome or Chris Grayling?

I mean if you want to go stupid, why stop half-way, when you go the whole grayling. The Tories have so much first class talent to choose from. The last time I saw such a dense group of political talent was during the last GOP primary in the US; and in the end that worked out for the best in the end...

:leaving:

Sadly there is a deep lack of talent in both main parties, I honestly don’t know what would be worse, a Boris led government or a Corbyn led one.

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For the the non-Brits. Rory Stewart is the guy that looks a bit like Alfred E. Neumann?

Fitting face for British politics these days then.

Ok, silly remarks aside.

Has anyone noticed the absence of one name in the Tory leadership challenge? JRM. I know I've been banging this drum for a very long time, but it sows again. JRM has no interest of actually becoming PM, he likes being a backbencher, pushing for legislation that fit his investments (like Brexit). If he actually were to compete, all his financial investments and how he (and his hedge fund) personally benefit from Brexit would face way more scrutiny.

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27 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 

Has anyone noticed the absence of one name in the Tory leadership challenge? JRM. I know I've been banging this drum for a very long time, but it sows again. JRM has no interest of actually becoming PM, he likes being a backbencher, pushing for legislation that fit his investments (like Brexit). If he actually were to compete, all his financial investments and how he (and his hedge fund) personally benefit from Brexit would face way more scrutiny.

It probably has more to do with him being too divisive a figure. While he’s pretty popular with brexiteers, a lot of people are going to see a Beano looking toff with some pretty out of touch views on social issues and run screaming. 

I do wish people would drop this stuff about hedge funds and secret personal wealth etc, it really doesn’t look good.

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JRM has already said he’s supporting Boris for leader

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I have a question: the previous two extensions of Article 50 came after the PM asked for it, right? Was this on behalf of parliament, or was it technically the government that took the decision?

Point being, could a hard Brexit PM get what he wants just by refusing to ask for a further extension or recalling Article 50, thereby crashing out on purpose on October 31st, even if the HoC is against it?

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Theoretically yes, but the House could try and pass a no-confidence vote if he attempts such a thing

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Theoretically yes, but the House could try and pass a no-confidence vote if he attempts such a thing

Boris is a much more polarising figure than almost anyone else (JRM may be more, Raab probably not far behind) and if he got in, it'd seriously piss off that 50+ bloc of Tory Remainers and the additional bloc of soft Brexiteers, who might then be tempted to crash their own government if it mean shooting down a hard Brexit. However, many (and maybe most) would also be at risk of losing their seats in a General Election. Sometime saying you have integrity and will put the good of the country above your own political ambition, and actually doing it, are two different things.

Interesting that Amber Rudd decided not to run. A few analyses suggest that she's a prime "kingmaker" between different voting blocs in the party and could support Boris in return for him softening his approach (and possibly being made Chancellor). Although I can't see Boris backing down on his hard Brexit rhetoric after his recent statements, so I don't know what the wriggle room is there.

Boris becoming PM - which is not a given - doesn't change the maths in Parliament, so apart from there being no further EU negotiations of substance going forward (the EU hold Boris in utter contempt and would shoot down any attempts by him to change May's deal, which was already a massive compromise by them), the exact same problem would remain as now: no support for no deal, no support for any existing deal and almost enough support but not quite for Ref3 or a custom union. Boris might have no choice but to calculate that his personal popularity among the cretinous sector of the public might be enough to make up for the votes he'd lose from people who hate him, and of course the vast reams of people who'd turn away from the Tories because they know it would really be a vote for No Deal versus (presumably) a Deal with a Customs Union. In fact, such a choice might see huge numbers of people on both sides simply refusing to vote at all.

Edited by Werthead

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14 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Theoretically yes, but the House could try and pass a no-confidence vote if he attempts such a thing

Can they though? I mean, I hope so, but all the wonks seem to be saying that if we get a Brextremist PM, determined on No Deal, then there's nothing the House can do to stop them. Would be delighted if someone corrected me here.

My own hope is that there are just enough Tory MPs who find the prospect of No Deal unconscionable enough to ensure the likes of Johnson are not even put before the membership.

I never thought I'd be saying this, but I hope Rory gets it. He's a spook, but that might be just what we need right now. I'd imagine the British Intelligence Community are in favour of remaining in the EU, so if they've got one of their own in Downing Street I would say that's a nailed on outcome.

 

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13 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Can they though? I mean, I hope so, but all the wonks seem to be saying that if we get a Brextremist PM, determined on No Deal, then there's nothing the House can do to stop them. Would be delighted if someone corrected me here.

My own hope is that there are just enough Tory MPs who find the prospect of No Deal unconscionable enough to ensure the likes of Johnson are not even put before the membership.

I never thought I'd be saying this, but I hope Rory gets it. He's a spook, but that might be just what we need right now. I'd imagine the British Intelligence Community are in favour of remaining in the EU, so if they've got one of their own in Downing Street I would say that's a nailed on outcome.

The problem is, I think, that it really doesn't matter who is PM. If the numbers stay exactly as they are now, they can't get a deal through Parliament, they can't renegotiate the deal with Brussels, they can't call a second referendum, they (probably) can't call a general election and they can't get No Deal through Parliament. They can just fuck around and waste time until October and try to let us crash out without a deal, which I suspect is Boris's plan, with an intervening several months of bloviating in the meantime.

Responding to an earlier question on the timescale, Gordon Brown was PM for 2 years, 319 days. May is, as of today, at 2 years, 316 days. May will overtake Brown on Tuesday, so she won't be the shortest-serving PM this century (but will go down as the most ineffectual). More to the point, May officially ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party on 7 June (2 years, 329 days, for those still counting) but she continues to be Prime Minister until the leadership contest is resolved. That could be quite quickly, but if all five candidates duke it out to the bitter end, the new PM might not be in place until the second half of July (or ~12 weeks from when we crash out of the EU).

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