How destructive should the Others Invasion be?

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I think its pretty certain the Others will either be defeated or will have triumphed by say the third year of Winter. I highly doubt we are going to read about 10 years of guys staring at each other before hearth fires inside stone keeps all day long.

I don't think the Others will be defeated at all, not in battle at least. But then they aren't the actual problem. Cold and starvation is and the latter will show its teeth immediately due to collapsing infrastructure. 

I think the resolution will be some magic reversing or addressing whatever is causing the Winter and the Long Night, not battle with the Others.

I also think odds are good that we won't see spring, just days lengthening and the Others retreating northward along with the snows. The Others will be survived not beaten. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't think the Others will be defeated at all, not in battle at least. But then they aren't the actual problem. Cold and starvation is and the latter will show its teeth immediately due to collapsing infrastructure. 

I think the resolution will be some magic reversing or addressing whatever is causing the Winter and the Long Night, not battle with the Others.

I also think odds are good that we won't see spring, just days lengthening and the Others retreating northward along with the snows. The Others will be survived not beaten. 

Agreed that defeat doesn’t mean defeat them in pitched battle. Magic saved humanity the last time and will do so again this time.

The point is, this is likely to happen fairly early into the 10 year Winter. I’m guessing year 3. Maybe even year 2, unless we start seeing some time jumps in the books.

[The Sleeper]

20 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Agreed that defeat doesn’t mean defeat them in pitched battle. Magic saved humanity the last time and will do so again this time.

The point is, this is likely to happen fairly early into the 10 year Winter. I’m guessing year 3. Maybe even year 2, unless we start seeing some time jumps in the books.

I don't have any particular predictions about the time line. The point was that I think that a lot more people will die from cold and hunger than zombie attacks. Two or three years is more than enough time for people to start starving to death. 

The point also was that the winter and the Long Night are extinction level events on their own if left unchecked. Do the Others bring the cold or the cold the Others? I suspect it is a bit of both and they have a cascade effect.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 minute ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't have any particular predictions about the time line. The point was that I think that a lot more people will die from cold and hunger than zombie attacks. Two or three years is more than enough time for people to start starving to death. 

The point also was that the winter and the Long Night are extinction level events on their own if left unchecked. Do the Others bring the cold or the cold the Others? I suspect it is a bit of both and they have a cascade effect.

One of the reasons the victory will come early is that this Winter has to end within at most 3 years, given the current state of Westeros, else no one will be alive come spring due to starvation.

Winter will therefore be ended long before it reaches the 10 year mark.

[HexMachina]

Some authors do a good job of making their novels span long periods of time and pulling off time jumps. After his need to abandon the 5 year gap i dont think GRRM falls into this category so i wouldn’t think even a 2-3 year Winter likely because GRRM tends to get too drawn in to the finer details. Consider that the books so far have spanned, iirc, 2 1/2 years approximately, some of which is only due to certain characters being introduced at earlier points than others (Dany). So i find speculation of a 2-3 year winter unlikely, personally

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

One of the reasons the victory will come early is that this Winter has to end within at most 3 years, given the current state of Westeros, else no one will be alive come spring due to starvation.

Winter will therefore be ended long before it reaches the 10 year mark.

Not necessarily. Enclaves with access to the sea and fuel could survive, as well as regions well to the south like Dorne or the Summer Islands. 

Without any expectations as to the actual time of the events, I expect for us to see large portions of Westeros rendered uninhabited and uninhabitable, a new long night and the dawn returning. 

[Br16]

8 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Not necessarily. Enclaves with access to the sea and fuel could survive, as well as regions well to the south like Dorne or the Summer Islands. 

Without any expectations as to the actual time of the events, I expect for us to see large portions of Westeros rendered uninhabited and uninhabitable, a new long night and the dawn returning. 

I agree, I feel in Westeros, Dorne is going to be the main beneficiary and survivor. It's funny how luck cycles. The Tully's, Arryns and Starks etc. had a nice long summer under Robert turned into plots, war and winter. While Dorne lost a chance to have Elia as Queen, it now seems Dorne's going to get lucky. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Not necessarily. Enclaves with access to the sea and fuel could survive, as well as regions well to the south like Dorne or the Summer Islands. 

Without any expectations as to the actual time of the events, I expect for us to see large portions of Westeros rendered uninhabited and uninhabitable, a new long night and the dawn returning. 

The reality is a 10 year Winter will leave the North with zero population. Maybe a few tens of thousands out of the current 5 million or so. Effectively ending it as a political force in Westeros forever, and rendering meaningless whether the Starks rule Winterfell or not. They will become the equivalent of a minor Dornish House for centuries.  I don’t see that as Martin’s intention.

[Br16]

6 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The reality is a 10 year Winter will leave the North with zero population. Maybe a few tens of thousands out of the current 5 million or so. Effectively ending it as a political force in Westeros forever, and rendering meaningless whether the Starks rule Winterfell or not. They will become the equivalent of a minor Dornish House for centuries.  I don’t see that as Martin’s intention.

Perhaps ready for a new wave of migration from Essos? It's happened before (e.g. Children of Forest displaced, Andal invasion etc.), it could happen again.

[The Sleeper]

7 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The reality is a 10 year Winter will leave the North with zero population. Maybe a few tens of thousands out of the current 5 million or so. Effectively ending it as a political force in Westeros forever, and rendering meaningless whether the Starks rule Winterfell or not. They will become the equivalent of a minor Dornish House for centuries.  I don’t see that as Martin’s intention.

What makes you think this would be confined to the North? The worst afflicted would be the Riverlands due to the destroyed infrastructure, but I don't think anyone is supposed to escape lightly. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of the population of Westeros perishes. 

[bez263]

On 5/27/2019 at 8:05 AM, Corvo the Crow said:

They would get as far south as Winterfell I think. After that, I don’t know if they can get up.

I think Winterfell falls. We need something big to realise the true power of the Others, and Winterfell has been weakened over the course of the books so far. 'There must always be a Stark in Winterfell' isn't just a saying. There needs to be a Stark in Winterfell to protect it from the Others, and now that there isn't, Winterfell is doomed. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 6/18/2019 at 6:45 AM, The Sleeper said:

I don't think the Others will be defeated at all, not in battle at least. But then they aren't the actual problem. Cold and starvation is and the latter will show its teeth immediately due to collapsing infrastructure. 

It's pretty much this. There's a food shortage already because of the Wot5K, so people are going to die of hunger. 

We don't really know the mechanics of raising wights is. In Thistle's case, we know that wights were near by when she died and then she became one. And with Tormund's son, he only says he died from the cold and became a wight. When Jon arrives at the Fist of the First Men with Mance, he mentions that it was cold and snowing. But the men who were killed there were gone by the time the wildling host arrived. 

So maybe it's enough that whatever magic the Others wield is released in the 7Ks after whatever happens to the Wall happens, that it may not matter if wights and Others overtake Winterfell or cross the Neck because the problem could become wide spread and quickly because it is not an ordinary winter.

I don't think Dorne is safer than any of the 7Ks.