Who will be Lord Commander after Jeor and Jon were killed by mutiny?

[Ser Hedge]

10 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Meh, I think this is overestimating Jon’s popularity.

Sure not all but probably the vast majority  given Jon’s policies aren’t depicted as well received. Pyke and Malister want the wildlings as dead and gone as Marsh. It could be reasonably assumed their men probably take after their leader in this regard.

The Stewards who make up the vast majority of people at Castle-black have shown to be Marsh’s main base. I imagine most of them would support the action given they see Jon as a flat out abomination.

And plenty of those who aren’t Marsh’s followers aren’t necessarily pro-Jon. He is making sweeping changes to the watch to which run countenance to how they’ve taught.  That wildlings are the enemy and that during winter  taking more people to feed is suicidal. 

I mean the average man in the NW as of now hasn’t seen a Walker. What they have seen is wildlings torturing and killing their brothers, and among the older members many probably  also seen people they’ve loved be slowly killed by the hunger caused by winter. 

Or he could try to take the hostages(that includes Tormund’s son)  and demand Tormund massacre the Queen’s men then leave.

 

And I can’t help but think Malister would be anything but sympathetic to Marsh if anything.

I mean Jon had a former whore as his personal Steward(a position reserved for noblemen and those who the LC wants to groom as a potential successor) accepted savages into the holy institution of the Nightwatch, and would have pardoned abominations like the Weeper. 

Jon’s policies were taking the watch on a progressive path that appealed no more to Malister than Marsh. Probably less so for Malister. Remember Malister’s main point for why Janos shouldn’t be LC wasn’t that he was corrupt, or unqualified, it was that the man was born a peasant. 

Hell a conservative  like Malister I could imagine being tempted to kill Jon.

 

Good points, but condoning a mutiny is quite a thing. Sets a really bad precedent, even if you kind of agree why it was done. And you can't send the perpetrators to take the black, since obviously .... 

If another election is organized at some point and Mallister is on the list, he should be a safe option for most of the NW. Or an experienced Ranger. I see your point about the steward support base and maybe the builders as well, and I  see @Lollygag's point that if the story needs the NW to collapse completely, then that requires someone as bad as Marsh in charge.

We will have to see ... 

 

 

[Nevets]

18 hours ago, Lollygag said:

So Horse, Rory and Leathers just stand there doing nothing while Jon starts to clearly fail and gets stabbed over and over by two weakling stewards? And Jon never thinks, "Dudes! wtf? Some help here!"

When I said screaming, I was referring to something like "Hey look! Marsh is attacking/killing the LC!" followed by people trying to join in or stop it. You know, what usually happens in an unexpected fight. 

You can think whatever you want - I want evidence that makes sense. 

He was stabbed 4 times, I believe, before losing conciousness.  That could be done quite quickly, 10-15 sec,  maybe.  It probably took longer to read it than it did to happen.  By the time anybody realizes what is happening, Jon is passed out.  Once anybody notices, the game is up.

13 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Yeah, anyone tailing Jon would probably be in on it. Jon didn't do bodyguards. That was Ghost's job, hence Mel's unheaded warning. 

I seem to recall Mel noticing he usually had a tail with him.  I could be wrong, though.

Even if he did, 4 guys surrounding him suddenly and stabbing him could catch them by surprise.

As to the OP,, I think that the wildlings, Queen's men, and Jon's supporters in the NW probably outnumber the builders and stewards, and are probably better fighters as well.

My guess is that the NW fractures, and the Others might take advantage of the chaos.

By the way, I am not convinced that Jon is actually dead, as opposed to being seriously injured, in which case he would remain as LC.

[Ser Hedge]

23 hours ago, Gerg Sknab said:

Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown clumsy. Somehow he couldn't get the sword out of the scabbard. 

 Re-read the book leading up to the above. @Lollygag, the "Men were screaming" is very suggestive of their screaming in response to Wick attempting to stab Jon twice, but not completely conclusive either. To me it can still be interpreted either way 

17 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Or he could try to take the hostages(that includes Tormund’s son)  and demand Tormund massacre the Queen’s men then leave.

Yes, that is a possible scenario if he manages to get out of the crazy situation (potentially) rapidly developing into a free for all first. If he gets into a tower or keep where some of the key hostages are, bar the door and announce from a window with a knife to the hostage's throat what he is going to do, that cools down the Wildlings. But until then ...

Agree with @Nevets that it all happened quickly enough that help for Jon may not have arrived quickly enough. We cannot say for sure no one else saw 3 or 4 NW brothers surround and take down their LC no matter how entertaining the Wun Wun show was.

The key is who exactly saw the ides of March? If it was only Wildlings, then the situation on the ground has the potential for taking on the shape of Queen's men (angry over Ser Patrek and then seeing Wildlings attack Bowen, Wick and party w/o realising why) combining with the mutineers and other NW who don't know exactly what happened, and perhaps joined by the Northmen, traditionally suspicious of Wildlings.

This is pretty attritional and can result in a lot of players on either side being killed, but the Wildlings ultimately prevailing with larger numbers and Wun Wun. However,  it seems pointless to bring mountain clansmen to the Wall just for them to get killed in this melee. And equally pointless for Jon to win the rousing support of the Wildlings only for them to get slaughtered RW-style. For these story-external reasons, I don't think it will be Wildlings vs everyone else, but another combination and in any other combination, the mutineers still do not end up surviving unless a) they run or b) they get to the hostages.

[Gerg Sknab]

Quote

 

There were 588 NW votes from Black, eastwatch and westwatch when Jon was elected, those numbers have dwindled drastically since, shucks Black is lucky if there are 100 brothers there at the time of Jon's stabbing fewer are at Eastwatch if Tormund is travelling there and Westwatch is probably on its last legs if the rumours the Weeper is going to attack again. 3000+FreeFolk and the handful of Queens Men are more than enough to decimate the NW at Black effectively making an LC useless and redundant

[Lollygag]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

 Re-read the book leading up to the above. @Lollygag, the "Men were screaming" is very suggestive of their screaming in response to Wick attempting to stab Jon twice, but not completely conclusive either. To me it can still be interpreted either way 

 

I just don't buy it. Why would they scream, but Jon, Wick and Marsh don't even look that way to see if it's help or hinderance? No one joins or intervenes. Not one. For either side. Sorry to repeat myself so much, but people keep ignoring this.

This is what looks normal especially with a crowd of hyped up men. A fight starts, people see, and they jump right in no hesitation to help their respective sides.  

 

[Legitimate_Bastard]

On 5/26/2019 at 7:34 PM, Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn said:

Don't you think that Lord Commander became more dangerous position than Prince of Pentos? Who guarantees (after Stannis's death) that soldiers surrounded by Others' and winter threat will not try the third mutiny?

Cotter Pyke is who I want.

[Ser Hedge]

23 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I just don't buy it. Why would they scream, but Jon, Wick and Marsh don't even look that way to see if it's help or hinderance? No one joins or intervenes. Not one. For either side. Sorry to repeat myself so much, but people keep ignoring this.

This is what looks normal especially with a crowd of hyped up men. A fight starts, people see, and they jump right in no hesitation to help their respective sides.  

 

Thx for the video, maybe that's the way Bowie and co thought it would play out 

Btw, at the beginning of my post I meant "(I just) re-read the book (again)", just realized wasn't clear. Wasn't asking you to.

I don't disagree that Wildlings and mountain clansmen wouldn't intervene on Jon's behalf as soon as they realize what's going on. What is possible is that they are not close enough yet and could be held back by NW, some of them mutineers, and the others just following Jon's orders earlier to keep everyone away from Wun Wun. If they had their back to Jon, they wouldn't know what had just happened.

To your point that Jon, Wick or Bowie haven't turned around to look at the screaming:

Jon has just been grazed in the throat. He's put his hand to his throat and feels the blood well, that's a bigger shock than the screaming, and his martial instincts are kicking in as he tries to draw Longclaw.

We don't know that Wick did not turn around.

Bowie probably knows he had seconds to complete the mission before he's torn into pieces, or he thinks the NW cordon holds long enough. 

Is that not feasible?

I don't think your interpretation is necessarily wrong btw, just that we don't have enough data. George has left this dangling in the most tantalising way possible.

 

[Lollygag]

Just now, Ser Hedge said:

Thx for the video, maybe that's the way Bowie and co thought it would play out 

Btw, at the beginning of my post I meant "(I just) re-read the book (again)", just realized wasn't clear. Wasn't asking you to.

I don't disagree that Wildlings and mountain clansmen wouldn't intervene on Jon's behalf as soon as they realize what's going on. What is possible is that they are not close enough yet and could be held back by NW, some of them mutineers, and the others just following Jon's orders earlier to keep everyone away from Wun Wun. If they had their back to Jon, they wouldn't know what had just happened.

To your point that Jon, Wick or Bowie haven't turned around to look at the screaming:

Jon has just been grazed in the throat. He's put his hand to his throat and feels the blood well, that's a bigger shock than the screaming, and his martial instincts are kicking in as he tries to draw Longclaw.

We don't know that Wick did not turn around.

Bowie probably knows he had seconds to complete the mission before he's torn into pieces, or he thinks the NW cordon holds long enough. 

Is that not feasible?

I don't think your interpretation is necessarily wrong btw, just that we don't have enough data. George has left this dangling in the most tantalising way possible. 

 

I'm picturing Bowen Marsh combined with David Bowie now and wow, that's weird!

Don't know that Wick (or Marsh) didn't turn around. If someone's attacking you, you watch them very, very closely. Especially as them looking around implies they suspect something impacting the fight one way or another. 

Do what you want, but I rarely buy into ideas that string together so many maybes. If there were these huge game-changer events that Jon/Wick/Marsh didn't notice just because GRRM wanted to pull a gotcha! moment on the reader, and one which goes against basic human nature and instincts, I'd be ticked. And it's just not his style. I'm sticking with what's on the page. 

[Gerg Sknab]

Nah your just making up  your own vision. The shieldhall holds 300. The NW is outnumbered by Freefolk by 5 to 1 in other words 250 to 50. You can carry on in your belief however reread pages 911/12/13.   I will give that Bowen Yarwyck, Whittlestick and the builders and stewarts in their cadre are well prepared for their ambush and asassination attempt and being a surprise Jon ill prepare with only two or three  rangers to back him however 3000 freefolkwill make short work of the NW and Queens Men while they are at it.

[Ser Hedge]

2 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

I'm picturing Bowen Marsh combined with David Bowie now and wow, that's weird!

Ziggy Marsh the space(d out) steward!

4 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Do what you want, but I rarely buy into ideas that string together so many maybes. If there were these huge game-changer events that Jon/Wick/Marsh didn't notice just because GRRM wanted to pull a gotcha! moment on the reader, 

Hmmmmm ok, I didn't see it as a gotcha! on the way really, with a lot of maybes required to make it work. Just as my last post on this particular topic:

Wick has already stepped away with his hands up before men scream. 

Bowen enters the fray after the men scream sentence.

So there is really nothing in the text that suggests both are focused on their quarry like Shaolin monks and do not turn around. They can both be looking at the screaming in the time Jon tries to draw Longclaw and fails.

I agree Jon has not turned away. He knows he has been attacked, knows he is bleeding already and he has been in a few scraps upto this point, and has been well trained. He registers the screaming, surmises it's most likely his allies, or the audience gawping at Wun Wun, and is more focussed on the adversaries near to hand. 

In other words if you know you are have 2 or more guys near you trying to stab you, what difference does it make if there are more people on the way? If they are with the attackers, you are finished anyway. If they are your friends, you still need to hold out until they get here, you need to focus on the immediate threat. Can you resist the natural instinct to gawp? I would think a well trained fighter or soldier would when s/he is in immediate mortal danger.

I did not analyze the whole failure to react to the screaming when reading it obviously, but this sequence of events is how I pictured it in the first instance - not trying to manufacture an argument for the sake of it, but we can only wait and see.

Curious what others members think.

 

[Lollygag]

Just now, Gerg Sknab said:

Nah your just making up  your own vision. The shieldhall holds 300. The NW is outnumbered by Freefolk by 5 to 1 in other words 250 to 50. You can carry on in your belief however reread pages 911/12/13.   I will give that Bowen Yarwyck, Whittlestick and the builders and stewarts in their cadre are well prepared for their ambush and asassination attempt and being a surprise Jon ill prepare with only two or three  rangers to back him however 3000 freefolkwill make short work of the NW and Queens Men while they are at it.

If you're referring to me, again crowd =/= witnesses to a specific event especially as nothing in the text indicates any witnesses. Show me something solid without assumptions. 

[Ser Hedge]

Yeah different discussions here. 

1. How many witnesses to the stabbing? @Lollygag's contention is if no one saw it, Bowie may not even be suspected.

2. In an all out disorderly free for all, can the NW as a unit hold out? Based on numbers no, but if they get back to the hostages first and keep the Queen's men onside, maybe, but I don't see how it serves the narrative tbh.

@Gerg Sknab: 3000 includes the old, non-spearwife women and children. Fighters 1000-1500 maybe, but they are not all at CB, some have been settled at different castles already.

SH ratio skewed in favour of wildings since they cared about Hardhome, the NW not so much, esp stewards and builders who would not be sent on the mission anyway.

That's just to get the data right. I don't disagree if all the wildlings present at CB fight together as one body, they prevail, unless hostages ...

[Lollygag]

 

55 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Ziggy Marsh the space(d out) steward!

55 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Hmmmmm ok, I didn't see it as a gotcha! on the way really, with a lot of maybes required to make it work. Just as my last post on this particular topic:

Wick has already stepped away with his hands up before men scream. 

Bowen enters the fray after the men scream sentence.

So there is really nothing in the text that suggests both are focused on their quarry like Shaolin monks and do not turn around. They can both be looking at the screaming in the time Jon tries to draw Longclaw and fails.

I agree Jon has not turned away. He knows he has been attacked, knows he is bleeding already and he has been in a few scraps upto this point, and has been well trained. He registers the screaming, surmises it's most likely his allies, or the audience gawping at Wun Wun, and is more focussed on the adversaries near to hand. 

In other words if you know you are have 2 or more guys near you trying to stab you, what difference does it make if there are more people on the way? If they are with the attackers, you are finished anyway. If they are your friends, you still need to hold out until they get here, you need to focus on the immediate threat. Can you resist the natural instinct to gawp? I would think a well trained fighter or soldier would when s/he is in immediate mortal danger.

I did not analyze the whole failure to react to the screaming when reading it obviously, but this sequence of events is how I pictured it in the first instance - not trying to manufacture an argument for the sake of it, but we can only wait and see. 

Curious what others members think.

 

You're assuming the screaming was about the attack when there was Wun Wun ripping up Patrek going on with a freaked out huge crowd of folks who hate each other who are about to break out into a fight Outsiders-style at any time on a good day. A fight's about to break out - see how Jon is worried about the Queen's men and folks have their blades out. It makes more sense that the screaming is about the potential fight Jon worried about in the immediately preceding paragraph to the start of the attack. 

The rest just goes against how these things normally go. Yes, it matters a lot if others join in either way. It's bad writing to have people see and make the witness(es) thing a big deal in the next book as a way to resolve a huge cliffhanger and not put in there why no one joins or helps. 

"Let him go," Jon shouted. "Wun Wun, let him go."

Wun Wun did not hear or did not understand. The giant was bleeding himself, with sword cuts on his belly and his arm. He swung the dead knight against the grey stone of the tower, again and again and again, until the man's head was red and pulpy as a summer melon. The knight's cloak flapped in the cold air. Of white wool it had been, bordered in cloth-of-silver and patterned with blue stars. Blood and bone were flying everywhere.

Men poured from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, free folk, queen's men … "Form a line," Jon Snow commanded them. "Keep them back. Everyone, but especially the queen's men." The dead man was Ser Patrek of King's Mountain; his head was largely gone, but his heraldry was as distinctive as his face. Jon did not want to risk Ser Malegorn or Ser Brus or any of the queen's other knights trying to avenge him.

Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun howled again and gave Ser Patrek's other arm a twist and pull. It tore loose from his shoulder with a spray of bright red blood. Like a child pulling petals off a daisy, thought Jon. "Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we're scaring him." Couldn't they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun's strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. "No blades!" he screamed. "Wick, put that knife …"
 

A few things: 

Jon thinks Wun Wun should hear him, but he doesn't. 

Jon's running around trying to get control of the situation and he's being ignored. The spectacle is too big. He needs a horn for people to pay attention. No one responds to him and he's frantic.

A lot of people have their blades out and are defensive, making Wick and Marsh blend in. 

Jon notes that they don't see Wun Wun getting cut even though they're hyper focused on him. Kinda weird, eh, as Jon gets cut next.

Wun Wun just howled and tore Patrek's arm off in a splay of gore. What's he gonna do next? Stomp into the crowd, go after more people when he's done? They're in fight or flight mode and Wun Wun is the threat. We're getting a reason why no one pays attention to Jon despite him running about like a chicken with its head cut off trying to get control of the situation.

Jon is actually near a lot of people as he's trying to get control of them, talk to them, which makes them seeing and not intervening or joining that much weirder if they did see what happened. 

Adding: Jon actually *screams* to Wick in the crowd to put away the knife and apparently no one heard or paid attention as no one intervened. 

 

[Ser Hedge]

@Lollygag thank you for writing it up like this. More convincing now. Going to sleep over it and re-read the chapter again tomorrow. If Ziggy Martian comes out of this with no suspicion attached, it obviously changes the way the whole situation plays out hugely.

[Nevets]

This is not a fight.  This is an attack, an ambush.  The conspirators are counting on the element of surprise to succeed. 

Events are happening in quick sequence, and quite suddenly.  In such events, it can take a few seconds to register what is going on.

I expect thought processes of those who saw Jon were:

what are those guys doing?

Are they stabbing...

HOLY SHIT, They're stabbing the LC!!!

Meanwhile, Jon is passing out due to pain and blood loss and isn't in a position to hear clearly.

Elapsed time; well  under a minute, probably well under 30 sec. 

Given that they are stuck using daggers, I expect that they will stab him until they are prevented from doing so.  Judging by their demeanor, I don't think they are expecting to not get caught.

[Lollygag]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

This is not a fight.  This is an attack, an ambush.  The conspirators are counting on the element of surprise to succeed. 

Events are happening in quick sequence, and quite suddenly.  In such events, it can take a few seconds to register what is going on.

I expect thought processes of those who saw Jon were:

what are those guys doing?

Are they stabbing...

HOLY SHIT, They're stabbing the LC!!!

Meanwhile, Jon is passing out due to pain and blood loss and isn't in a position to hear clearly.

Elapsed time; well  under a minute, probably well under 30 sec. 

Given that they are stuck using daggers, I expect that they will stab him until they are prevented from doing so.  Judging by their demeanor, I don't think they are expecting to not get caught.

The LC getting stabbed by the NW isn't shocking anymore. Jeor got killed by mutiny in the NW which is how Jon got the job. Mel warned him that he was in danger. People glared at him and thought he'd gone wildling, was hooking up with Mel, traitor, traitor's bastard, breaking his vows with Stannis, he was some demon warg with the "mark of the beast" on him, just announced he was breaking his vows leading wildlings to take Winterfell and giving a wildling command of the NW to go to Hardhome, more. No, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Jon would be getting stabbed. Just the readers who assumed he had plot armor. 

And this isn't modern society where they would be shocked by that sort of thing. We have a bunch of people who all severely distrust each other at best and threaten rape, murder and burn each other alive at worst. That anyone is stabbing anyone is expected. It's a deeply violent society and it's all they know. It takes massive spectacles like giants whom they thought extinct just days ago bashing the queen's knight to pulp at Castle Black of all places to shock them. 

His ears still work. And if you read the passage above, Jon was close to people who weren't paying attention to him despite Jon trying to control them, which means people were very close by yet no one helped or joined in and Jon isn't wondering wtf at people standing around just watching him get stabbed to death like a bunch of mouth breathers. 

I don't agree that this is a suicide mission. It was committed during a massive distraction. Bowen Marsh is killing Jon because he wants certain things to happen, and if he's dead, there's less of a chance that these will happen and Marsh is in a position to do that as Jon's #2 and likely candidate for the next LC. For the Watch. He can't do anything if he's dead, too and his supporters are routed out. See below for the support that Marsh personally has. 

ADWD Jon IV

No. You would close our gates forever and seal them up with stone and ice. Half of Castle Black agreed with the Lord Steward's views, he knew. The other half heaped scorn on them. "Seal our gates and plant your fat black arses on the Wall, aye, and the free folk'll come swarming o'er the Bridge o' Skulls or through some gate you thought you'd sealed five hundred years ago," the old forester Dywen had declared loudly over supper, two nights past. "We don't have the men to watch a hundred leagues o' Wall. Tormund Giantsbutt and the bloody Weeper knows it too. Ever see a duck frozen in a pond, with his feet in the ice? It works the same for crows." Most rangers echoed Dywen, whilst the stewards and builders inclined toward Bowen Marsh. 

 

 

Blood loss is another assumption. It doesn't add up. 

AGOT Sansa VI

"Here, girl." Sandor Clegane knelt before her, between her and Joffrey. With a delicacy surprising in such a big man, he dabbed at the blood welling from her broken lip. 

 

ADWD Jon XIII

… away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. "Why?" 

"For the Watch." Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.
 

Note:

Jon's been scuffling with Robb since they could walk. Jon knows what a bad wound is and one he doesn't need to worry about. He knows about the problems with neck wounds because that's a great area to hit to incapacitate an opponent. Jon sees the blood from his neck and doesn't show any worry in the slightest. He knows the difference between a barely grazing cut and a substantial cut. He doesn't think he has only a brief time before blood loss hits. He doesn't report blood spurting from his neck, running down his neck, his clothes getting wet with blood. We're only told that his fingers are damp. And if one is taking the position that Jon is wrong about the barely grazing part, then he should adjust his estimation of his wound if he saw or felt a bunch of blood. But he doesn't. He sees as much blood as he expects from a barely grazing cut. 

After the neck wound, Jon does a fancy pants move on Wick's wrist to disarm him. We found out with Jon's hand injury that he's super right-handed with no ambidexterity at all (like Jaime), so he uses his right hand for this. He's suffering no effects at all from the wound on his neck. 

Seconds later, Jon is disoriented. Wick who is skinny as a spear, Wick whose very name sounds skinny, Wick who is gangly. GRRM repeats what's important. Longclaw's hilt is probably not so different in size from Wick's wrist. We're supposed to compare how Jon handled Wick's wrist and manhandled him with a fancy move and just a second or so later, can't handle his sword hilt of nearly the same size. He goes down too suddenly and too sharply (a few seconds) for blood loss that he's not worried about in the slightest. Jon assumes his hand has gone stiff as it will sometimes, but it wasn't stiff or weak in the slightest a second ago. 

Poison on the blade makes more sense especially for a steward trying to go up against a competent swordsman. Wick is skinny as a spear....That seemed to amuse him. "Has someone made a song about Gregor Clegane dying of a poisoned spear thrust? 

 

 

 

 

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. "For the Watch." He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger's hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. "Ghost," he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold … 
 

Bowen Marsh is standing there stabbing Jon completely unimpeded, with time to feel the impact of his emotions (tears) and to explain to Jon why. Then there's time for another knife. There's just nothing at all about witnesses. Based on the lack of intervention of any type at all, Marsh & Co melt back into the crowd. 

[Lollygag]

Comparing the last time a LC was killed in mutiny by his own men. GRRM knows how to write this believably with realistic reactions from his characters in this world. If anyone saw, why not write it this way the second time with Jon as it's more realistic and doesn't require brain pretzeling to explain?

 

ASOS Samwell II

There are no laws beyond the Wall, old man. Remember?" Dirk grabbed one of Craster's wives by the arm, and shoved the point of his bloody dirk up under her chin. "Show us where he keeps the food, or you'll get the same as he did, woman."

"Unhand her." Mormont took a step. "I'll have your head for this, you—"

Garth of Greenaway blocked his path, and Ollo Lophand yanked him back. They both had blades in hand. "Hold your tongue," Ollo warned. Instead the Lord Commander grabbed for his dagger. Ollo had only one hand, but that was quick. He twisted free of the old man's grasp, shoved the knife into Mormont's belly, and yanked it out again, all red. And then the world went mad. 

Later, much later, Sam found himself sitting crosslegged on the floor, with Mormont's head in his lap. He did not remember how they'd gotten there, or much of anything else that had happened after the Old Bear was stabbed. 
Garth of Greenaway had killed Garth of Oldtown, he recalled, but not why. Rolley of Sisterton had fallen from the loft and broken his neck after climbing the ladder to have a taste of Craster's wives. Grenn . . .

Grenn had shouted and slapped him, and then he'd run away with Giant and Dolorous Edd and some others. Craster still sprawled across Ser Byam, but the wounded knight no longer moaned. Four men in black sat on the bench eating chunks of burned horsemeat while Ollo coupled with a weeping woman on the table.
 

The NW saw the attack. They joined in right away no hesitation, some to help Mormont, some to try to finish the job. And then the world went mad. 

[Ser Hedge]

1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

Longclaw's hilt is probably not so different in size from Wick's wrist. We're supposed to compare how Jon handled Wick's wrist and manhandled him with a fancy move and just a second or so later, can't handle his sword hilt of nearly the same size. He goes down too suddenly and too sharply (a few seconds) for blood loss that he's not worried about in the slightest. Jon assumes his hand has gone stiff as it will sometimes, but it wasn't stiff or weak in the slightest a second ago. 

Poison on the blade makes more sense especially for a steward trying to go up against a competent swordsman.

Yes, I thought about poison too, just wasn't sure if a common poison could take effect that quickly. I've seen it suggested on the forum that the sword has been tampered with (stuck in its scabbard), but the "fingers grown stiff and clumsy) is more indicative of poisoning. 

Earlier in the chapter, it's quite clear Selyse is very displeased with Jon (over Hardhome, I'm not saying she ordered it, just that some Queen's men taking their cue from her views), and we know Jon had a big run-in with Axell over Val, so I wouldn't rule out some Queen's men (w/o Mel being aware of course) being involved in a poisoning conspiracy as well FWIW. They might have access to better poisons. Of course the pink letter taken at face value aligns NW mutineers with the Boltons and against Stannis' camp, but the conspiracy would predate the letter reading. Just another random thought.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 6/7/2019 at 4:34 AM, Ser Hedge said:

Good points, but condoning a mutiny is quite a thing. Sets a really bad precedent, even if you kind of agree why it was done. And you can't send the perpetrators to take the black, since obviously ....

Meh, I think it’s probable there were plenty of NW brothers who rebelled against the Night’s king or one of the other LC who went rouge. And who weren’t executed once order was restored. 

But even ignoring one must note the members of the NW do not swear allegiance to the LC.

They swear to uphold the institution. The mission. Not a specific individual.

Quite frankly there appears to be nothing in the oaths that necessitates the position exists at all.

If Jon desires to let wildlings in (to which in Malister’s eye would run completely countenance to the mission as he understands it), and even join(tarnishing the institution further), then I think Malister would see the revolt not only justified but necessary.

Jon’s words even he thinks what he’s doing breaks his oaths-hence saying no one could say he asked any of his brothers forswear his vows after his declaration-making any legitimately he had probably vanish in the eyes of most as well.

20 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Yes, that is a possible scenario if he manages to get out of the crazy situation (potentially) rapidly developing into a free for all first. If he gets into a tower or keep where some of the key hostages are, bar the door and announce from a window with a knife to the hostage's throat what he is going to do, that cools down the Wildlings. But until th

I think this sort of plan had already been prepared well-before, Jon’s announcement. I suspect  Marsh and co, weren’t eagerly hoping for it, but thought it’d increasingly likely Jon would do something this extreme that demanded extreme action.

I don’t think it probable that they believed in the PL. Hell Tormund didn’t believe in it initially. And he generally likes Jon. To Marsh and his followers it could have been recognized  as hoax by Jon to justify his leaving, with a wildling army to war with House Bolton. 

Making it so that the Watch would be put in danger due to their leaders’ personal agenda.

Or if they did believe in it it’s entirety it looks like Jon excused one of the worst traitors in Watch’s history in order to kidnap his sister from her legally wed husband-putting the watch in danger for his own personal agenda, making it clear they cannot simply allow him to handle it.

[Lollygag]

Let's look at the books for Mallister's view of the wildlings rather than just guessing. 

ADWD Jon VI

And where am I to get more men? Jon had sent ten of the Mole's Town wildlings to each of them: green boys, old men, some wounded and infirm, but all capable of doing work of one sort or another. Far from being pleased, Pyke and Mallister had both written back to complain. "When I asked for men, I had in mind men of the Night's Watch, trained and disciplined, whose loyalty I should never have reason to doubt," wrote Ser Denys. Cotter Pyke was blunter. "I could hang them from the Wall as a warning to other wildlings to stay away, but I don't see any other use for them," Maester Harmune wrote for him. "I wouldn't trust such to clean my chamber pot, and ten is not enough." 
 

Mallister and Pyke complain first about the wildlings not being useful enough, and their loyalty is mentioned second. They're both extremely desperate for men and neither reject them and send them back.