Who will be Lord Commander after Jeor and Jon were killed by mutiny?

[Gerg Sknab]

Nothing I've read here changes my opinion there will be no LC in the forthcoming TWOW

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Mallister and Pyke complain first about the wildlings not being useful enough, and their loyalty is mentioned second. They're both extremely desperate for men and neither reject them and send them back. 

“Useful enough” more like they complain the wildlings aren’t useful at all. They don’t say the wildlings are underperforming in their duties. It’s made clear the commanders legitimately don’t see what duties could be entrusted to a wildling.

Pyke mockingly  says the only use he could find for these men is to have them murdered and made into warning for other wildlings.

Its clear neither of them are anymore in favor of Jon’s policies concerning the Wildlings than Marsh

They simply don’t send the wildlings back because it’s clear doing so would be spitting in the face of Jon and clear undermining of his leadership publicly rebuffing the aid Jon has given him. 

The men Jon sent over are seen as useless because they’re wildlings. Wildlings could/should not be trusted. They  give no other reasonable alternative for why these able bodied men aren’t useful. Because they have none. 

 

You’re mistaking Pyke and Malister tolerating the Wildlings presence with approval of them being there. There’s a difference. 

[Gerg Sknab]

38 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

“Useful enough” more like they complain the wildlings aren’t useful at all. They don’t say the wildlings are underperforming in their duties. It’s made clear the commanders legitimately don’t see what duties could be entrusted to a wildling.

Pyke mockingly  says the only use he could find for these men is to have them murdered and made into warning for other wildlings.

Its clear neither of them are anymore in favor of Jon’s policies concerning the Wildlings than Marsh

They simply don’t send the wildlings back because it’s clear doing so would be spitting in the face of Jon and clear undermining of his leadership publicly rebuffing the aid Jon has given him. 

The men Jon sent over are seen as useless because they’re wildlings. Wildlings could/should not be trusted. They  give no other reasonable alternative for why these able bodied men aren’t useful. Because they have none. 

 

You’re mistaking Pyke and Malister tolerating the Wildlings presence with approval of them being there. There’s a difference. 

There are no NW at eastwatch 11 ships have been losteven with crews of more than 10 the 100 supposedly at esastwatch before Hardhome are no longer there and as far as Malister goes westwatch has lost 100 (half of their strength) from Joer's ranging, uncounted losses from the Weepers first attack including the wounding of the pomegranate so NW has maybe mid one zero numbers there.

[kissdbyfire]

On 5/27/2019 at 5:56 PM, Lady Valicious said:

I think he will carry on. I doubt he'll come back as he used to be. He will be focused on stopping the Others, more so now that he was brought back by R'hllor

Erhm... Jon wasn’t brought back by Red Rahloo.

Spoiler

That only happened in the abomination.

Mel playing a part is one possibility, yes. But if he’s not dead he doesn’t have to be brought back. 

On 5/28/2019 at 9:51 AM, Ser Hedge said:

I give him 2 minutes. Which brings us to the next question, who after Bowen Marsh's shortest-ever stint as an LC, will take over as the next LC?

There won’t even be a “stint”. Marsh, Wick, and whoever else is w/ them are as good as dead, and good riddance. The free folk will take over, w/ the aid of the black brothers who are loyal to Jon. 

[Lollygag]

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

“Useful enough” more like they complain the wildlings aren’t useful at all. They don’t say the wildlings are underperforming in their duties. It’s made clear the commanders legitimately don’t see what duties could be entrusted to a wildling.

Pyke mockingly  says the only use he could find for these men is to have them murdered and made into warning for other wildlings.

Its clear neither of them are anymore in favor of Jon’s policies concerning the Wildlings than Marsh

They simply don’t send the wildlings back because it’s clear doing so would be spitting in the face of Jon and clear undermining of his leadership publicly rebuffing the aid Jon has given him. 

The men Jon sent over are seen as useless because they’re wildlings. Wildlings could/should not be trusted. They  give no other reasonable alternative for why these able bodied men aren’t useful. Because they have none. 

 

You’re mistaking Pyke and Malister tolerating the Wildlings presence with approval of them being there. There’s a difference. 

Bold 1: I didn't say that and neither did the text. Don't hack my posts so you can mischaracterize them. Jon says in the books that they are capable of some work, not as you warped to "aren't useful at all". Read it again. If you don't like it, take it up with GRRM. 

8 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Let's look at the books for Mallister's view of the wildlings rather than just guessing. 

ADWD Jon VI

And where am I to get more men? Jon had sent ten of the Mole's Town wildlings to each of them: green boys, old men, some wounded and infirm, but all capable of doing work of one sort or another. Far from being pleased, Pyke and Mallister had both written back to complain. "When I asked for men, I had in mind men of the Night's Watch, trained and disciplined, whose loyalty I should never have reason to doubt," wrote Ser Denys. Cotter Pyke was blunter. "I could hang them from the Wall as a warning to other wildlings to stay away, but I don't see any other use for them," Maester Harmune wrote for him. "I wouldn't trust such to clean my chamber pot, and ten is not enough." 
 

Mallister and Pyke complain first about the wildlings not being useful enough, and their loyalty is mentioned second. They're both extremely desperate for men and neither reject them and send them back. 

Here's the paragraph just before that one:

ADWD Jon VI

Cotter Pyke's galleys were reporting ever-increasing numbers of free folk along the wooded shores to the north and east of the Wall. Camps had been seen, half-built rafts, even the hull of a broken cog that someone had begun repairing. The wildlings always vanished into the woods when seen, no doubt to reemerge as soon as Pyke's ships had passed. Meanwhile, Ser Denys Mallister was still seeing fires in the night north of the Gorge. Both commanders were asking for more men.
 

Bold 2: I'm not mistaking it with approval, it's a lesser of the evils for them. That's a gross oversimplification of the situation. If you read the carefully, you'll notice that Pyke and Mallister aren't happy with them being there. But needing people on the Wall and having wildlings on the their side of the Wall as opposed to attacking the Wall either as humans or wights is the preferable situation. 

 

I won't read any more posts where you hack my words with the intent of intellectual dishonesty and when you knowingly mischaracterize the text to suit your fan fiction.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

9 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Bold 1: I didn't say that and neither did the text. Don't hack my posts so you can mischaracterize them. Jon says in the books that they are capable of some work, not as you warped to "aren't useful at all". Read it again. If you don't like it, take it up with GRRM. 

Here's the paragraph just before that one:

ADWD Jon VI

Cotter Pyke's galleys were reporting ever-increasing numbers of free folk along the wooded shores to the north and east of the Wall. Camps had been seen, half-built rafts, even the hull of a broken cog that someone had begun repairing. The wildlings always vanished into the woods when seen, no doubt to reemerge as soon as Pyke's ships had passed. Meanwhile, Ser Denys Mallister was still seeing fires in the night north of the Gorge. Both commanders were asking for more men.
 

Bold 2: I'm not mistaking it with approval, it's a lesser of the evils for them. That's a gross oversimplification of the situation. If you read the carefully, you'll notice that Pyke and Mallister aren't happy with them being there. But needing people on the Wall and having wildlings on the their side of the Wall as opposed to attacking the Wall either as humans or wights is the preferable situation. 

 

I won't read any more posts where you hack my words with the intent of intellectual dishonesty and when you knowingly mischaracterize the text to suit your fan fiction.

 

I excluded one sentence where you just say “Let's look at the books for Mallister's view of the wildlings rather than just guessing 

I don’t really see it’s exclusion as taking away any necessary context to your argument  and make my response less fair to what you’ve said. 

You’re really partial to the threat of discontinuing responding to those who use the quoting system in the way you deem appropriate. 

I’d suggest you kick this habit. 

Though I am going to attempt quote all your posts for now. Mostly because I am bored. 

Also yeah you kinda do say their complaints are about the Wildlings not being useful enough. Which is off the mark. The two fail  see a use for the wildlings  at all. 

17 hours ago, Lollygag said:

Let's look at the books for Mallister's view of the wildlings rather than just guessing. 

ADWD Jon VI

And where am I to get more men? Jon had sent ten of the Mole's Town wildlings to each of them: green boys, old men, some wounded and infirm, but all capable of doing work of one sort or another. Far from being pleased, Pyke and Mallister had both written back to complain. "When I asked for men, I had in mind men of the Night's Watch, trained and disciplined, whose loyalty I should never have reason to doubt," wrote Ser Denys. Cotter Pyke was blunter. "I could hang them from the Wall as a warning to other wildlings to stay away, but I don't see any other use for them," Maester Harmune wrote for him. "I wouldn't trust such to clean my chamber pot, and ten is not enough." 
 

Mallister and Pyke complain first about the wildlings not being useful enough, and their loyalty is mentioned second. They're both extremely desperate for men and neither reject them and send them back. 

And please do me the same courtesy of not doing the very thing you accuse me of  by mischaracterizing what I said.  I did not say I thought the wildlings Jon sent were useless. I argued  Malister and Pyke saw the Wildlings as useless. Seriously you might as well take the statement “The seven kingdoms  generally sees women as being best when  subservient to men to” as meaning “I see women at they’re best when they’re subservient to men”

Second: . It’s clear the two do not see working with the wildlings seeking refuge is the lesser of two evils in terms of them simply going over to the Weeper, or turning into wights. Because they(the refugees), are not distinguishable from their enemies in any meaningful way to the commanders. 

Again Pyke  literally says he desires to hang the men Jon sent over. Not because of any specific grievance the old men, disabled men, and boys Jon sent over are guilty of any specific grievance. But because they are Wildlings. Malister’s words were more PC but the core message was the same. That there is no point in trying to work with the wildlings. Hence making it a point to lament when he refers to needing men, he in no way means Wildlings. 

Perhaps you could try to rationalize why even though Pyke literally says he could not find a use for the wildlings other than simply killing them as a warning to the wildlings under the Weeper, and says flat-out he would never entrust the chore of cleaning his chamber pot to these men, he actually thinks the Watch should try working with the wildlings. Though I don’t think you’d succeed.

[Ser Hedge]

8 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

There won’t even be a “stint”. Marsh, Wick, and whoever else is w/ them are as good as dead, and good riddance. The free folk will take over, w/ the aid of the black brothers who are loyal to Jon. 

Yeah, it was a throw away remark in response to a lot of posts predicting Bowie to be elected LC.

The thread become more interesting later on with the possibility that Bowie, Wick and co were not seen (What do you think about that, btw?). That's the only scenario where Bowie as LC is even feasible (assuming Jon is medically 'dead') and while maybe he lasts longer than 2 minutes, he is certainly doomed. OTOH if he has been seen, he better get to a tower or keep with key wildling hostages and try his luck with a Texas standoff, otherwise he joins Ser Patrek.

To be clear, my base case is Jon is only in a coma, so there will be no LC election. We are really talking about who takes temporary charge at CB.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

Yeah, it was a throw away remark in response to a lot of posts predicting Bowie to be elected LC.

The thread become more interesting later on with the possibility that Bowie, Wick and co were not seen (What do you think about that, btw?). That's the only scenario where Bowie Bowen as LC is even feasible (assuming Jon is medically 'dead') and while maybe he lasts longer than 2 minutes, he is certainly doomed. OTOH if he has been seen, he better get to a tower or keep with key wildling hostages and try his luck with a Texas standoff, otherwise he joins Ser Patrek.

To be clear, my base case is Jon is only in a coma, so there will be no LC election. We are really talking about who takes temporary charge at CB.

Oh I know what you meant. Just couldn’t resist!

Also, fixed that sacrilege (autocorrect?), because Bowie is god. 

And Bowen & co were seen... Leathers is right there, Jon tells him to try to talk to Wun Wun in the OT. Also, the Shieldhall is not far, since Jon hears the commotion immediately as he steps out of the Shieldhall. So, yeah, dead meat, all of them.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

11 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

There won’t even be a “stint”. Marsh, Wick, and whoever else is w/ them are as good as dead, and good riddance. The free folk will take over, w/ the aid of the black brothers who are loyal to Jon. 

They will probably be rebuffed. Though, I have reservations on this idea of Jon massacring the majority of the brothers at Castle black. 

 

[Ser Hedge]

25 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

autocorrect

Ha, yeah, first time and then kept it going for comedy value long after several sharks were jumped or just run through clean with the water skis as you do 

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, yeah, dead meat, all of them.

 

Definitely keeps the story progressing briskly. Not sure you want see the reign and fall of Bowen through several Mel POVs.

[Ser Hedge]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Though, I have reservations on this idea of Jon massacring the majority of the brothers at Castle black. 

The FF should have done it for him while he's out of action. He's also likely to come back much more 'wolfish' anyway.

[Varysblackfyre321]

58 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

The FF should have done it for him while he's out of action. He's also likely to come back much more 'wolfish' anyway.

Or not if Marsh takes the hostages. Which would be the logical course to follow. I don’t see the FF if a full on massacre  does break out only stopping at those likely affiliated with Jon. A crow is still a crow, if they’re going wild, it’s likely the few Jon supporters, and those who’ve decided not to back Marsh, will be massacred as well.

Though, I guess Jon could  decide to kill around 70% of the brothers at Castle black out of anger with no thought on how this would be viewed by the Northern lord’s. 

Wouldn’t be the first time he’s done something drastic out of emotion. Probably wouldn’t  be the last.

Though I think given the Watch’s severity of the situation I feel  it’s probable he merely takes the heads of the most blatant offenders and ringleaders. 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Or not if Marsh takes the hostages. Which would be the logical course to follow. 

Thing is, Marsh and co won’t have time to go round up the hostages to keep the FF in check. The hostages are scattered, doing different things, learning different skills. To get them all in one place would take time, and Marsh doesn’t have time. He has a few men w/ him, we don’t know exactly how many, but Leathers is there w/ more men, Jon notes men are running towards them from all the surrounding buildings, and there’s everyone at the Shieldhall where the FF outnumber the crows 5:1. 

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I don’t see the FF if a full on massacre  does break out only stopping at those likely affiliated with Jon. A crow is still a crow, if they’re going wild, it’s likely the few Jon supporters, and those who’ve decided not to back Marsh, will be massacred as well.

I don’t think this mentality will apply here. Every black brother thinking every wildling is an enemy and vice versa. It will become very clear very quickly which crows are loyal to Jon and which aren’t. Leathers, a black brother now, will be instrumental imo. Martin could have had any number of characters where Leathers is when Jon gets stabbed, and I believe this was a very deliberate choice. 

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Though, I guess Jon could  decide to kill around 70% of the brothers at Castle black out of anger with no thought on how this would be viewed by the Northern lord’s. 

Wouldn’t be the first time he’s done something drastic out of emotion. Probably wouldn’t  be the last.

Though I think given the Watch’s severity of the situation I feel  it’s probable he merely takes the heads of the most blatant offenders and ringleaders. 

I think there’s a good chance the traitors will have been dealt w/ by the time Jon is back on his feet. But I would rather they saved a few for him to execute. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Thing is, Marsh and co won’t have time to go round up the hostages to keep the FF in check. The hostages are scattered, doing different things, learning different skills. To get them all in one place would take time, and Marsh doesn’t have time. 

All? Perhaps not. But not all are needed. But a few. Tormund’s son, and the wildling prince(to which Val has shown love), would probably be the main objective. 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

He has a few men w/ him, we don’t know exactly how many, but Leathers is there w/ more men, Jon notes men are running towards them from all the surrounding buildings, and there’s everyone at the Shieldhall where the FF outnumber the crows 5:1.

In the ambush. It could very well be Marsh sent other men to try for the hostages during this period. Or had them on standby for just such an occasion. 

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I don’t think this mentality will apply here. Every black brother thinking every wildling is an enemy and vice versa. It will become very clear very quickly which crows are loyal to Jon and which aren’t. Leathers, a black brother now, will be instrumental imo. Martin could have had any number of characters where Leathers is when Jon gets stabbed, and I believe this was a very deliberate choice

I don’t think hyped-up, and probably at least a little intoxicated warriors who’ve already begun killing will suddenly stop if Leathers says stop. It’s near impossible to stop a mob like that once it gets started. Leathers at best could say “kill all the stewards and builders” and probably identify the apparent ring leaders of the coupbut Tormund and crew could not reasonably be expected to know who the stewards are. 

Like I’m not sure what more you’re imagining Leathers doing in terms of singling out those who’ve shown little to no support  of Jon. Is Leathers simply going to go up to every Brother, and declare him guilty or innocent? Whether or not a person likes Jon or not they’re still going to raise they’re weapons in wake of seeing a wildling attack a Night-watchmen. 

Too be clear I do think, it’ll become more apparent throughout the coup on which people are loyal to who. 

The majority of the Castle’s brothers will probably go to Marsh. Making the few “loyalists” easier to distinguish.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think there’s a good chance the traitors will have been dealt w/ by the time Jon is back on his feet. But I would rather they saved a few for him to execute. 

We’ll have disagree to disagree on the traitor comment. After Jon’s declaration it’s unreasonable to think he is entitled to any form of loyalty from the NW. 

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

If even Jon saw his mission as in keeping within the bounds of his oaths or at least thought there would be a general sentiment from his brothers that he was doing just that, he wouldn’t said he ask them to break them by following him. 

 I’d like a frank discussion between Marsh and Jon before the man’s death. Jon simply ignored the building resentment caused by his policies and chose to do nothing. He acted like they must accept what he does. Jon must re-learn the lessons he learned as a trainee. Mainly that his peers will kill him if him if he irritates them enough. And I hope learn not to ignore the telltale signs of potential rebellion and hope things cool. I’m thinking of Val, comments concerning her basically announcing she’d lead a rebellion to protect the Wildlings spiritual identity. It’d be unfortunate if Jon learns nothing from this assasaination other than Marsh is bad. Hello 

I mean, if Marsh and his followers did believe the letter, then the game’s over, and they’d either have to try to stop Jon or be destroyed. They could not be reasonably be expected to reasonably trust the 19 year old boy(who has apparently been lying to them) to succeed where Stannis failed. 

If Marsh, and his followers didn’t believe the letter, a likely assumption they made is that Jon is lying, and has made up this elaborate ruse to justify going to war with House Bolton.

Honestly, I think Jon showed a fundamental lack of empathy concerning many of his subordinates. Which is a very bad trait to have.

[kissdbyfire]

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

All? Perhaps not. But not all are needed. But a few. Tormund’s son, and the wildling prince(to which Val has shown love), would probably be the main objective. 

It’s possible Marsh felt he had to act then and there, regardless of what his original plan was.

In which case, he definitely won’t have had time to get any of the hostages. For instance, Tormund’s son was going to serve as Jon’s own page; to get to Monster”, Marsh and his cronies have to get past a very pissed off giant, so I don’t really see them succeeding, especially in a spur-of-the-moment scenario. 

What we do know about Jon’s “blood price” is, he took 100 hostages, and these hostages were going to be put to work, as squires in training, and everything else. 

ADwD, Jon X

“None but them whose sires displeased the Kings o’ Winter,” said The Norrey. “Those came home shorter by a head. So you tell me, boy … if these wildling friends o’ yours prove false, do you have the belly to do what needs be done?”
Ask Janos Slynt. “Tormund Giantsbane knows better than to try me. I may seem a green boy in your eyes, Lord Norrey, but I am still a son of Eddard Stark.”
Yet even that did not appease his Lord Steward. “You say these boys will serve as squires. Surely the lord commander does not mean they will be trained at arms?”
Jon’s anger flared. “No, my lord, I mean to set them to sewing lacy smallclothes. Of course they shall be trained at arms. They shall also churn butter, hew firewood, muck stables, empty chamber pots, and run messages … and in between they will be drilled with spear and sword and longbow.”

—-

There’s no way Marsh holds even a few of these hostages IMO. Marsh acted before he had planned to, and more importantly, before he was ready. Big mistake, and he will pay dearly for it. Marsh is a stupid “moral coward” (thank you, @Alexis-something-Rose), but even he is not so stupid as to attack Jon when he did. 

 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

In the ambush. It could very well be Marsh sent other men to try for the hostages during this period. Or had them on standby for just such an occasion. 

In the ambush... what? I’m not sure what you mean. 

See above. I think it was a rash decision brought on because he felt that’s what he had to do. Therefore, no way he has men holding the hostages. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I don’t think hyped-up, and probably at least a little intoxicated warriors who’ve already begun killing will suddenly stop if Leathers says stop. It’s near impossible to stop a mob like that once it gets started. Leathers at best could say “kill all the stewards and builders” and probably identify the apparent ring leaders of the coupbut Tormund and crew could not reasonably be expected to know who the stewards are. 

Again, this is a bit confusing. Who are you referring to when you mention “hyped up, and probsbly at least a little intoxicated warriors who’ve already begun killing”? 

Leathers is someone the FF know and trust, and he is now master-at-arms at CB. He was right there when it happened, and IMO, chances are, he will play a pivotal role in the aftermath of the assassination attempt. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Like I’m not sure what more you’re imagining Leathers doing in terms of singling out those who’ve shown little to no support  of Jon. Is Leathers simply going to go up to every Brother, and declare him guilty or innocent? Whether or not a person likes Jon or not they’re still going to raise they’re weapons in wake of seeing a wildling attack a Night-watchmen. 

I don’t quite get why a lot of people seem to think events will unfold over time at CB. I just don’t see it. The amount of people around/nearby will make any slow development impossible. It will be immediate chaos, and there will be at least two clearly distinct factions: on one side, the FF loyal to Jon and the black brothers loyal to Jon, and on the other the losers those who oppose Jon. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Too be clear I do think, it’ll become more apparent throughout the coup on which people are loyal to who. 

The majority of the Castle’s brothers will probably go to Marsh. Making the few “loyalists” easier to distinguish.

Don’t see it. Best case scenario for Marsh is 50/50, and even that is a stretch in his favour IMO. But it is impossoble to be sure either way at this point, so we will have to wait and see. 

But just for the fun of it, even if the majority of crows currently at CB sides w/ Marsh, the FF still outnumber them vastly, so... 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

We’ll have disagree to disagree on the traitor comment. After Jon’s declaration it’s unreasonable to think he is entitled to any form of loyalty from the NW. 

Erhm... Ok? We disagree to disagree then, whatever that means. 

And which declaration are you referring to exactly? 

Also, what you consider “unreasonable” another may consider the most reasonable thing ever, it’s just your opinion, not fact. As I said above, we will have to wait and see. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

If even Jon saw his mission as in keeping within the bounds of his oaths or at least thought there would be a general sentiment from his brothers that he was doing just that, he wouldn’t said he ask them to break them by following him. 

Jon knows what he wants to do may be seen as a breaking of vows, and he doesn’t want to put his brothers in that situation. So what?  But more importantly, what if it is breaking the vows? It’s the right decision, the right thing to do. Fuck the vows. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 I’d like a frank discussion between Marsh and Jon before the man’s death.

They've had several, to no avail. Marsh has proven to be too biased, too prejudiced, and too much of a bigot to understand. One more discusssion wouldn’t change anything. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Jon simply ignored the building resentment caused by his policies and chose to do nothing. 

All evidence to the contrary. Because we have quite a few chats between them, where Jon tries to explain again and again why trying to save the FF is the right thing to do, but Marsh just doesn’t get it, and doesn’t care about anything other than saving his own arse.

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

He acted like they must accept what he does.

Well, the do. That’s how it works in a military organisation like the NW.  

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

Jon must re-learn the lessons he learned as a trainee. Mainly that his peers will kill him if him if he irritates them enough.

I’m sorrry, what?

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

And I hope learn not to ignore the telltale signs of potential rebellion and hope things cool. I’m thinking of Val, comments concerning her basically announcing she’d lead a rebellion to protect the Wildlings spiritual identity. It’d be unfortunate if Jon learns nothing from this assasaination other than Marsh is bad. Hello 

I have no idea what you mean here.

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I mean, if Marsh and his followers did believe the letter, then the game’s over, and they’d either have to try to stop Jon or be destroyed. They could not be reasonably be expected to reasonably trust the 19 year old boy(who has apparently been lying to them) to succeed where Stannis failed. 

I think they did believe the letter, and that’s why (in part) Marsh decided to speed things up. 

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If Marsh, and his followers didn’t believe the letter, a likely assumption they made is that Jon is lying, and has made up this elaborate ruse to justify going to war with House Bolton.

This doesn’t make sense imo.

4 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Honestly, I think Jon showed a fundamental lack of empathy concerning many of his subordinates. Which is a very bad trait to have.

Lack of empathy, really? Let’s see...

(Paraphrasing)

Jon: “there’s thousands of men, women and children who will die if we don’t do anything [and make things even worse for us when they join the army of the dead].

Marsh: “let them die” (just like Selyse, another example of outstanding awesome human being. NOT). 

 

[teej6]

On 6/6/2019 at 2:08 PM, Lollygag said:

So Horse, Rory and Leathers just stand there doing nothing while Jon starts to clearly fail and gets stabbed over and over by two weakling stewards? And Jon never thinks, "Dudes! wtf? Some help here!"

 

We are seeing that scene from Jon’s POV. Things happen so fast that even Jon doesn’t realize what’s happening until it’s too late. We only see Jon’s immediate reactions to the stabbing which is a total unexpected occurrence. He doesn’t have enough time to comprehend the whole situation let alone call out for help. When Jon sees Wick’s blade, his first instinct is to tell him to put it away because it doesn’t occur to Jon that he is under attack. It’s only after the second slash that Jon reacts and tries to disarm Wick and then goes for his sword. GRRM gives us three small paragraphs... which are like seconds of Jon’s thoughts, and you want Jon to turn around scream for help?

On 6/6/2019 at 2:08 PM, Lollygag said:

You can think whatever you want - I want evidence that makes sense. 

@Gerg Sknab gave you textual evidence. It’s not his/her fault that you chose to ignore it. It’s your argument that there were no witnesses to the act and that no one will know Marsh and Co did the deed which makes no sense. We know at least Horse, Rory, and Leathers from the NW are at the scene when Jon gets stabbed. Then we have the Queen’s men, Northmen and the Wildings on the scene. Just because GRRM did not show us the others reaction that doesn’t mean they weren’t there or didn’t witness the event. GRRM wrote the whole scene which btw happens in a matter of seconds in three short paragraphs and all from the victim’s POV who was caught completely unawares. I’ve seen arguments that state Marsh will have support from some of the men of the NW for the act, or that he was acting with the support of the Lannisters, but this is the first I’m hearing the argument that no one will know who stabbed Jon. Totally baffling. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Nobody .

[teej6]

On 6/7/2019 at 5:19 PM, Lollygag said:

If you're referring to me, again crowd =/= witnesses to a specific event especially as nothing in the text indicates any witnesses. Show me something solid without assumptions. 

Jon is talking to Leathers and the men around him when Wick slashes. So your argument that the crowd does not equal witnesses makes no sense. Jon is the LC who is trying to diffuse a situation that a lot of people are witnessing. He’s in the thick of things and shouting out commands. There are men all around him, including his own men. It’s complete BS to suggest that people around Jon don’t see him getting stabbed and falling. 

Quote

Wun Weg Wun Dar Wun howled again and gave Ser Patrek’s other arm a twist and pull. It tore loose from his shoulder with a spray of bright red blood. Like a child pulling petals off a daisy, thought Jon. “Leathers, talk to him, calm him. The Old Tongue, he understands the Old Tongue. Keep back, the rest of you. Put away your steel, we’re scaring him.” Couldn’t they see the giant had been cut? Jon had to put an end to this or more men would die. They had no idea of Wun Wun’s strength. A horn, I need a horn. He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it. “No blades!” he screamed. “Wick, put that knife …”  … away, he meant to say. When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?” “For the Watch.” Wick slashed at himagain. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard. Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it. Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end. When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

How can one read the above and suggest that the crowd gathered did not witness Jon’s stabbing??

[The Fattest Leech]

On 5/26/2019 at 7:34 PM, Prince Yourwetdream Aeryn said:

Don't you think that Lord Commander became more dangerous position than Prince of Pentos?

No. There are too many moving parts to this arc of the story to claim anything will remain after the wars that were that way before the wars. Society will eventually evolve because the way things have been operating for the last 5,000-300-two years ago have all been for shit!

Your main thread title posed this question:

• Who will be Lord Commander after Jeor and Jon were killed by mutiny?

That depends on what happens after all of these wars and battles Martin has planned. Will there be a wall? Are the Others defeated, or just pushed back again? Will everyone learn the true history of the wall and the NW vows?

Speculatin' now: Jon is the 998th, Tormund may bring things under control as a 999th LC figurehead, and Bran (after graduating tech school) becomes the 1000th figurehead, because that is the highest ranking Night's Watch+greenseer position you can have... a watcher over humanity, and you need a thousand eyes in one to achieve that.

Quote

Who guarantees (after Stannis's death) that soldiers surrounded by Others' and winter threat will not try the third mutiny?

That would be the dumbest decision they could make and maybe these thrice damned three-pete's need to be removed from the guard pool. The solution to a difficult situation should not be murder.

[sweetsunray]

I'm on the "no elections" side, especially because I'm reading a 3rd issue in the fray that is happening that Jon is not aware of. Imo, the Others are just north of the Wall at the rim of the Haunted Forest and they're wighting the dead and fallen in CB, the moment Wick drew Jon's blood (there's power in King's Blood). There are several people that are smelly or stinky in Jon's aDwD arc. George made them smell because they foreshadow an issue that ends with the mayhem in Jon's last chapter

• The people in Mole's Town => link to the people of Hardhome who followed Mother Mole. Cotter Pyke sailed to rescue, and gave command to a friend of Janos Slynt and Alliser Thorn. Once Cotter Pyke was stuck waiting for rescue, that now will never come, the interim Commander feels secure enough likely to help instigate a mutiny. In aSoS, Jon notices that Benjen's words about the wall are correct: from Eastwatch to CB it's a sword, from CB to the Shadow Tower it's a snake. Since Bowen & co stuck Jon with the pointy end, the pommel is likely held by Eastwatch. Bowen had opportunity to communicate with Eastwatch, since he had to communicate about the toll that the FF paid to be allowed through.
• Cregan Karstark throws shit to his guards, and is put in a cell in the LC tower in the last chapter. Alys informed Jon about the Karstark betrayal in the company of Clydas, and she did so in terms as if she expected any warning to Stannis would arrive too late, and that he's certain to lose and die. Even if Clydas is loyal to Jon, the man has not sworn maester vows and since aGoT, we know there's a blabber mouth when it comes to news from letters sent to maester Aemon and the LC or anybody of the NW. So, Clydas talked, and Bowen fears ending up on the losing side. So, Cregan Karstark's presence and whatever shit he told guards and especially Wick Whittlestick (who carries all the keys) was the foremost reason Bowen & co at least started to plot mutiny. I wouldn't be surprised if Wick let Cregan out of his cell and that he's amongst the men stabbing Jon from behind.  
• The author of the Pink Letter wants his "reek" back (more stinky business), and claims Stannis is dead. Bowen's worst fears came true at the reading of the Pink Letter, and he acted with the few men he could gather to kill Jon in the hope Ramsay Snow and the Karstarks would not massacre the NW.
• Axell Florent "stinks" in Jon's mind when he makes demands about Val. Axell Florent doesn't get to marry Val, because he ends up betrothed to Gerrick Kingsblood's daughter, but Selyse betrothes Ser Patrek to her, and none of Selyse's men are present during the Shieldhall speech. We learn Ser Patrek tried to steal Val, which caused the chaos with Wun Wun in the yard, and thus the opportunity by Bowen & co to attack Jon.

But there is a 5th one: Borroq and his boar. The boar is the reason why Jon keeps Ghost in the armory and not with him, but that's not the sole thing. Borroq tries to make clear he's on Jon's side: calling him brother, staying far away from the rest of CB and keep his boar away. But we get a paragraph about where Borroq and his boar stayed: in the lichyard, and that boar has been rooting around the graves. This reminds me of Ygritte telling about Mance digging up graves and letting "shades" go free. The NW has taken to burning their dead since aGoT, but they obviously haven't burned their prior dead. And while yes a lot of those would have decomposed, let us not forget that "the cold preserves", so some may not, and with that boar rooting around in the graves, the earth may be loose enough for wights to emerge.

And this brings me to the hints that Others are there: ghost's and the raven's behavior earlier that day. Ghost is so "wild" he nearly took a chunk out of the guardsmen. These two were relieved of their watch by the time of the shieldhall speech, and one of them had proposed to let Cregan Karstark freeze in his ice cell. So, I very much doubt they are mutineers. In fact, Ghost behaves aggressive to Jon even at that point. Meanwhile the raven is screaming "Snow!" all the time and cannot be calmed either. And this time I don't think the raven is just calling out Jon's name, but trying to alert Jon about the source of the snow-sky that Jon sees as he looks up at the Wall and the sky above it (thus looking north) before he arrives at the armory and learns of the alarming behavior of Ghost.

You might think they behave like this because they sense Bowen & co's plans... but actually, Bowen and Yarwick visit Jon over Hardhome, and by then both animals are calmer. Ghost does have an upright tail and bristles when he sniffs Bowen in passing by when they go out, but he doesn't try to take a chunk out of him. Basically, Ghost was more aggressive 1-2 hours earlier to Jon himself than he is to Bowen Marsh who is considering to kill Jon if they learn Stannis lost. Strange!!!! But not if you consider that Ghost and the raven were making a ruckus over another issue altogether: the smell of wights and the Others (if they have a smell) at the rim of the Haunted Forest. Because when Bowen, Yarwick and Jon leave the armory the wind is coming from the south. The animals are somewhat calmer, because the wights and Others at the rim of the Haunted Forest are downwind. The raven gets so calm later that Tormund jokes around about the bird's comments.

Jon blamed the boar for Ghost's behavior, but then why would he be calmer later. Ghost would be in a constant state then, and for days already. This misdirection in Jon's POV was also applied in the chapter before that, when Borroq and his boar are about to pass through the Wall as the last FF. Ghost acted protectively aggressive towards the boar once he smelled him and Tormund talked about "boar and wolves, best keep them apart". George here leads the reader to assume that when sometime later the boar suddenly stands as if to charge, this means the boar threatens to charge at Jon or Ghost, because of what Tormund said. However, Borroq had just called Jon, "brother" and right after warns Jon "they are coming". It seems to me that the boar possibly took a stand to charge, because he smelled wights nearing, and Borroq is a far more experienced skinchanger than Jon to know what his boar smelled.

This is imo why Jon's so clumsy in unsheathing his sword, and why he only feels the cold that NIGHT (it's after the change of the evening watch, so it's nighttime). Once Wick drew blood from Jon, that was enough for the Others at the rim of the Haunted Forest to use magic to wight the dead that weren't burned. And this is possibly the rd reason why men are screaming: the appearance of a wight.

So, several things are happening all at once:

• Men trying to get at Wun Wun
• Bowen & co stabbing Jon
• Wights appearing in their midst, including a dead Patrek
• a potentially wighted boar
• FF pouring out and starting to fight whomever threatens them
• Whomever is killed that night becomes a wight

And you really think Bowen will survive this and get elected, after trying to kill the one man who recognized the sole real threat are the Others? No way.