What if Rebel Lords decided to seek independence?

[DanaKz]

This thread was insired by "My biggest what if" cause yep, this is my biggest what if - Robert wouldn't proclaim himself the King of Seven Kingdoms, but for all of three of rebels - Jon, Ned and Robert to proclaim independence of their lands. 

What if they proposed to Tywin, Hoster, Mace and Quellon to join their cause as new kings of West,Rivers,  Reach, Iron Islands? that would be interesting I think. 

Of course, I suppose Dorne would stick to Targaryens anyway, as far as Elia's son's legacy is secured and not compromised (yes, I am looking on your second totally legit wife, Rhaegar).  

But what do you think? Would other grandlords deny a chance for their own crowns? What would happen next? 

You know, I lived through USSR collapse (ok, I was a mere child) so this would be very, ahem, interesting times ahead. Would somebody within Reach rebel? Will somebody in Stormlands or Reverlands assume they have more rights to their respective crowns than Baratheons and Tullys? What would Iron Islanders do? How would Targeryen plan to bring them back into one kingdom again?

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, DanaKz said:

This thread was insired by "My biggest what if" cause yep, this is my biggest what if - Robert wouldn't proclaim himself the King of Seven Kingdoms, but for all of three of rebels - Jon, Ned and Robert to proclaim independence of their lands. 

What if they proposed to Tywin, Hoster, Mace and Quellon to join their cause as new kings of West,Rivers,  Reach, Iron Islands? that would be interesting I think. 

Of course, I suppose Dorne would stick to Targaryens anyway, as far as Elia's son's legacy is secured and not compromised (yes, I am looking on your second totally legit wife, Rhaegar).  

But what do you think? Would other grandlords deny a chance for their own crowns? What would happen next? 

You know, I lived through USSR collapse (ok, I was a mere child) so this would be very, ahem, interesting times ahead. Would somebody within Reach rebel? Will somebody in Stormlands or Reverlands assume they have more rights to their respective crowns than Baratheons and Tullys? What would Iron Islanders do? How would Targeryen plan to bring them back into one kingdom again?

A lot to unpack there. Frankly, I imagine that Tywin would still wait until the fighting was done no matter what. An opportunist profits most by waiting until everyone else is done fighting and then takes what they want from the spoils. The Reach might bite, given Mace’s ambition, but then he’d probably have trouble from Houses Tarly, Florent, Redwyne, Rowan and Hightower. Certainly the Iron Islands would join in on that and declare independence. Maybe they could attack the Westerlands and keep Tywin occupied.

If there was such a rebellion, the Great Houses would need to be driven to their knees or else would probably have to be purged by the Targaryens. Then they’d deal with a mess all over again when the noble houses squabble over who gets to be the new lord paramount, etc.

[Lord Vance II]

Would the great lords want to be kings? Of course. 

To be clear, are you proposing Robert plan to break up the kingdoms BEFORE rebelling? I like the thought experiment, but Robert's Rebellion just kind of popped off and no one had really planned anything. If it wasn't for Lyanna and the war was planned, I almost think they wouldn't have to fight - if all the Great Houses just said "we're done, screw you Aerys," what could he do about it?

But, to answer the question - 

The Iron Islands would be so on board. Quellon might not be thrilled, but there is no way Balon and his brothers would let him pass up on the opportunity. 

If the weddings still went through and both of Hoster's son-in-laws declared themselves kings, I think he would easily follow suit. 

Tywin just wants to end up on the right side, so if 5 Lords declared themselves Kings, I think it would be a safe enough bet that he could do so safely too. He hates Aerys anyways. The only thing that would stop him is Jaime's safety. 

If Tywin declared freedom and the count was up to 6, Mace would probably follow suit. I want to say the Hightowers would make a bid to separate themselves and establish Oldtown at a city-state, maybe take some of the lesser lords in the region with them. 

And if all that happened, Dorne is alone one way or another and would probably only stay loyal for Elia and her sons.

What happens after the dissolution of the 7K? If Quellon still dies, the Ironborn under Balon would quickly become a menace and the North, West and maybe Riverlands would have to deal with them by either occupying the islands or splitting them between them. I also think the Riverlands and Reach would be ripe for breaking up. Without the blessing of the Iron Throne, the Tyrells are suddenly very weak kings. I think for sure the HIghtowers would declare independence and houses like Rowan and Tarly could threaten Highgarden.  The same would be true for the Tully's in the Riverlands, but if Cat and Lysa are still married as they are, the backing of the Starks and Arryns would probably be enough to keep them in power for a while. Could also see Tywin making a play for the Riverlands.