NBA Finals 2019: Can the Raptors Claw Out a Win?

[Maithanet]

I'm pretty excited about the Finals.  I am relatively high on the Raptors.  I think that they present a challenge to these Warriors unlike really any team they've faced in their 5 year run.  I didn't go back and look, but I think this might be the most talented defensive team they've ever faced in a series (possibly excepting the 2016 OKC WCF?).  Combine that with the injuries to Durant, Cousins and Iguodala, and their depth is going to be really tested.

I know that Curry will get his, but the Raptors have four different capable defenders they can throw at him to give different looks.  I expect it'll be Lowry/VanFleet/Green checking him for most of the game and then Leonard taking him in the 4th.  Siakam matches up well with Green given his length, and Leonard will probably take Green at times to neutralize the Curry/Green pick and roll. 

The Raptors have a lot of different looks they can try out and see what works best.  If GSW goes small they can counter by going even smaller with VanFleet/Lowry/Green/Leonard/Siakam.  If they want to go big and attack the glass, they have Gasol and Ibaka.  They look well suited to attack GSW's two main weaknesses, namely turnovers and rebounding. 

All in all, I think that this is going to come down (somewhat anticlimactically) to health.  If the Warriors are missing Durant for the series and Iguodala is less than 100%, I think that the Raptors take it.  If Iguodala is healthy and Durant comes back at nearly full speed for games 5-7, then I think the Warriors win it in seven. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

I just want to see how Kawhi's defensive talent fares against the Warriors. But the Warriors have two good playoff defenders in the form of Green and Iguodala whereas the Raptors lean fairly heavily on Kawhi.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I just want to see how Kawhi's defensive talent fares against the Warriors. But the Warriors have two good playoff defenders in the form of Green and Iguodala whereas the Raptors lean fairly heavily on Kawhi.

Seems a little strange to leave Thompson off that list (and Durant too, when healthy).  The Warriors have capable defenders, no doubt.  The Warriors do have a weak link in Curry, who is a worse defender than anyone in Toronto's rotation. 

[Matrim Fox Cauthon]

Just now, Maithanet said:

Seems a little strange to leave Thompson off that list (and Durant too, when healthy).  The Warriors have capable defenders, no doubt.  The Warriors do have a weak link in Curry, who is a worse defender than anyone in Toronto's rotation. 

How is it strange? I think that Green and Iguodala are the better defenders on the Warriors regardless of the defensive talents of Thompson and Durant. These are the two that really show up on the defensive side of things.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I was going to say a good title would be “NBA Finals: NorCal versus North America.”

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

How is it strange? I think that Green and Iguodala are the better defenders on the Warriors regardless of the defensive talents of Thompson and Durant. These are the two that really show up on the defensive side of things.

I think that Thompson is every bit the defender the Iguodala is now, given that Iguodala is slowing down in his mid-30s.  And Durant is primarily known as more of an offensive guy, but his playoff defense is excellent. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Seems a little strange to leave Thompson off that list (and Durant too, when healthy).  The Warriors have capable defenders, no doubt.  The Warriors do have a weak link in Curry, who is a worse defender than anyone in Toronto's rotation. 

I think the key lies here, assuming KD can’t go (and I suspect they are not being honest about his injury). Thompson hasn’t been good during these playoffs. If that continues,  the Raptors will win in six.

[Jaime L]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

All in all, I think that this is going to come down (somewhat anticlimactically) to health.  If the Warriors are missing Durant for the series and Iguodala is less than 100%, I think that the Raptors take it.  If Iguodala is healthy and Durant comes back at nearly full speed for games 5-7, then I think the Warriors win it in seven. 

What's interesting is 538 also has the Raptors as slight favorites. Basically made the case that their current starting 5 which only came together late in the year is really good (a 65 win type team), they have homecourt and there's no guarantee Durant plays or is effective if he does. This has the potential to be a fantastic finals.

Still give the Warriors a slight edge because of the F.U. edge Durant's injury seems to have given them (especially Curry and Draymond) and because of the insane load Kawhi is carrying. Like I said in the last thread, I can't recall seeing a guy dominate both ends of the floor like this in the playoffs. Generally offensive studs are given easier defensive matchups to rest a little a bit but the Raptors needed him on Giannis so that wasn't the case. He's averaging 40.5 MPG over the last 13 intensely contested playoff games against the Sixers/Bucks. 

Of course the guy is also an alien so not going to put any possibility past him. And if he carries the Raptors past the Warriors, he'll cement himself on the Mount Rushmore of greatest playoff performances ever (and honestly not sure I could name one I'd take over it). If...

[Maithanet]

18 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Of course the guy is also an alien so not going to put any possibility past him. And if he carries the Raptors past the Warriors, he'll cement himself on the Mount Rushmore of greatest playoff performances ever (and honestly not sure I could name one I'd take over it). If...

I can't speak for anything earlier than 2000 since I wasn't paying attention then, but the only thing that really comes to mind since then would be 2016 Lebron.  I think you can make a case that the 2016 Cavs minus Lebron are worse than the 2019 Raptors minus Kawhi.  But it also depends on the manner in which the victory happens.  If Durant and Cousins come back, this Warriors team is (WTF) significantly more talented than the 73 win Warriors squad from 2016.  But if neither of those guys are healthy enough to make an impact, then it would make beating the 2019 Warriors less impressive than Lebron beating the 2016 version. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

59 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I can't speak for anything earlier than 2000 since I wasn't paying attention then, but the only thing that really comes to mind since then would be 2016 Lebron.  I think you can make a case that the 2016 Cavs minus Lebron are worse than the 2019 Raptors minus Kawhi.  But it also depends on the manner in which the victory happens.  If Durant and Cousins come back, this Warriors team is (WTF) significantly more talented than the 73 win Warriors squad from 2016.  But if neither of those guys are healthy enough to make an impact, then it would make beating the 2019 Warriors less impressive than Lebron beating the 2016 version. 

Wade in 06? I can't recall his entire playoff run, but his Finals performance is in the conversation for greatest ever. That said, let's not act like Kawhi is carrying garbage. The Raptors 1-8 are the deeper and more versatile team while also being the better defensive team. The Raptors can play literally any style you want, and I'm sure they'll figure out one that gives the Warriors fits.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

On a separate note, how are you guys feeling about the possible incorporation of European football style midseason tournaments? 

[DanteGabriel]

31 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Wade in 06? I can't recall his entire playoff run, but his Finals performance is in the conversation for greatest ever.

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but that Finals performance, to me, was tainted by some ridiculous officiating. Really felt like the NBA's thumb was on the scale, and I didn't have a rooting interest going in to that series.

[briantw]

12 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I was going to say a good title would be “NBA Finals: NorCal versus North America.”

Should be: Call me when the Raptors win a game.

[Proudfeet]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

On a separate note, how are you guys feeling about the possible incorporation of European football style midseason tournaments? 

Depends on how they implement it.

I've thought for awhile that with all the controversy with the East/West playoff seeding that you should make every team play each other twice only and replace the remaining divisional games as group stages + tournament knockout games. Double elimination maybe depending on how many games it takes.

This way, you can solve the seeding issue with a straight 1-16 because all teams play each other twice, you retain division rivalries for whatever its worth, you don't add additional games to the already packed schedule, you lose a minimal amount of games for teams that get knocked out early and you get an extra trophy.

[Wilbur]

6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

On a separate note, how are you guys feeling about the possible incorporation of European football style midseason tournaments? 

Is there talk of such a thing?

The NBA season is way too long, grinding players down and making the playoffs less interesting because half the players are carrying injuries.  Think of how the 1987 and 1989 Finals were so badly marred by absent or hurt players.

Ever since I was a kid, I have wanted to see a 30-game first half that ends at Thanksgiving, followed by a Christmas tournament, followed by the second half of the season lasting 30 games that re-starts in January, with the Finals back in May where they belong.

The Christmas tournament I envision is played entirely at the Palestra or some place similar, single-elimination with some big cup and cash prizes, and the winner gets an automatic bid to the playoffs.

I know in today's commerical world this would never fly - the Palestra is too small, the league wants the money generated by all the games, etc.  But the basketball quality would probably improve.

[Proudfeet]

12 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Is there talk of such a thing?

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26509079/silver-again-mulls-nba-midseason-tournament

Basically, Silver is interested but its still in a concept phase and is not in discussion. 

[Relic]

Hard to imagine the Raptors winning more than a game in this series unless Kawhi has another fucking level he can get to, and unless his supporting cast really steps it up. The key winning here for the Raps boils down to defense, rebounding, and not turning the ball over. They will also need a secondary scorer to avg around 18 - 20, imho. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but that Finals performance, to me, was tainted by some ridiculous officiating. Really felt like the NBA's thumb was on the scale, and I didn't have a rooting interest going in to that series.

I’ve heard this complaint a lot. My counterpoint would be that Wade was the more aggressive player and the Mavs had no one who could guard him. He attacked the rim most of the time which is what gets you a lot of calls, especially if you’re not that big (see Iverson).

Besides, why would the NBA favor Miami, a small market that has awful sports viewership over Dallas, a major market that loves their sports?

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

snip

 

8 hours ago, Wilbur said:

snip

Frankly I’d totally restructure the league. Add two teams, one in Seattle and one where ever (maybe Vancouver). Change the season to soccer style rules, where each team plays one another twice, one home and one away. Nuke the conferences and just have an up and down 32 team league. Have a mid-season tournament, single elimination, with the winner getting an additional lottery pick with a 1% chance of the top pick, and have a second postseason tournament where all non-playoff teams compete for the top pick so we eliminate tanking.

Boom, I just fixed the NBA!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Relic said:

Hard to imagine the Raptors winning more than a game in this series unless Kawhi has another fucking level he can get to, and unless his supporting cast really steps it up. The key winning here for the Raps boils down to defense, rebounding, and not turning the ball over. They will also need a secondary scorer to avg around 18 - 20, imho. 

I strongly disagree, especially if KD is out. The Warriors have more stars, but the Raptors have the better team. They’re going to put Kawhi on Green and nuke the Curry/Green pick and roll. I expect the Raptors to win big tonight.