NBA Finals 2019: Can the Raptors Claw Out a Win?

[SkynJay]

It seems like going out too soon could have caused an injury, but i would love to hear what a doctor says.  Ive seen some fluke Achilles tears, including a friend who bent over to pick up a ball for his kid.  

Feels easy to blame the last injury on tjis one but i wonder if it really is a csuse/effect thing.

[Mexal]

NM. Wrong link.

 

[Jaime L]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I told you @Jaime L. You’ll get your game six. And guess what? You’ll get a seventh too.

On Durant, yes that sucks, but he’ll still get his money. But now we have to wonder if the Warriors were lying the whole time about his injury. It’s easy to say he should have been playing given what his teammates are playing through, but if it was really his Achilles the whole time, then no, he should have never played on it. That’s the one super risky injury for basketball players.  

Also, regardless of how you feel about the Warriors, soak last night in. The best thing in sports over the last five years has been the Warriors down late and scared, and we got a vintage performance.

And all it took was the most improbable, roller coaster Finals game we've seen in years. But, no, that felt more like a last stand of a champion refusing to go down quietly than the start of an epic comeback.

Life's not a sports movie. The Warriors don't have close to the horses necessary at this point without KD/Looney the rest of the way. All that's left are guys Kerr has done everything in his power to avoid playing. Cousins was literally benched before being forced into action when other guys went down and he was the best option Kerr had. And he almost cost them the game with the moving pick call, incredibly shaky ballhandling, and Kyle Lowry blowing by him like 27 times in the 4th quarter when he got switched onto him. 

The only other options with any size at all are Jordan "where am I supposed to be on the court again" Bell and Jonas Jerebko a guy who was literally run off the court because he couldn't hang in the series. They have so many minutes they now need to fill with semi-competent guy X and they don't even have that. If you shade 2 guys onto Steph/Klay at all times, I don't know how this team scores enough. They got just enough points from a combination of 12 minutes of Durant, Cousins having a surprisingly competent flurry out of nowhere and having everything go right to drain 20 3's. No team is more adept at pulling rabbits out of their ass than this Warriors team....but last night felt like them cashing in every lucky charm they have.

The only case I can see for the Warriors is if they mentally broke the Raptors last night with them getting so close to a title and having it yanked away in the final 3 minutes. And if "make KD's sacrifice worth it" galvanizes the Warriors to some superhuman level.

But these are big reaches here. They've been overmatched, outsized, outplayed all series long and nothing I saw last night changed that. They've now won all of 4 of 20 quarters in the series. It's semi-miraculous they've won two games in the series. Even when they were playing perfect Warriors basketball in the first quarter with Steph, Klay and KD unconsciously draining 3 after 3 the Raptors were still right there with them.

All things being equal, the way this ends is Kawhi methodically dismantling them in a game 6 that never feels close. I would love to be wrong and have a game 6 as tense and dramatic as game 5 but it's hard for me to visualize how we get that short of "Quinn Cook drinks from the elixir of life before the game and drains 7 threes"or something equally as random. 

 

 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

The only case I can see for the Warriors is if they mentally broke the Raptors last night with them getting so close to a title and having it yanked away in the final 3 minutes. And if "make KD's sacrifice worth it" galvanizes the Warriors to some superhuman level.

I am a little more concerned about the Raptors.  They are a team that needs strong discipline, communication and execution from their entire top 7 to win.  If even two or three of those guys start to lose confidence, then things could go downhill fast. 

However, I totally understand what you mean about the holes in the Warriors roster.  Right now their best lineup is almost assuredly Curry, Livingston, Thompson, Iguodala and Green.  That is three very good defenders and two smart but small/slow guys in Livingston and Curry.  On offense that gives them two great shooters and five great passers, but virtually no floor spacing.  It is also badly undersized if the Raptors play some combination of Siakam/Ibaka/Gasol (which they will probably 90% of the time).  Iguodala and Thompson are going to really suffer and wear down if they're banging with those guys all game for rebounds. 

If they need more size, the only options are Bogut, who is washed defensively and terrible on offense, and Cousins, who had one of the most up and down games I've ever seen in the NBA last night.  Several times in this series he has been played off the court by the Raptors, but really there's no one else.

If you assume that Curry, Thompson, Green and Iguodala all combine to play 40 minutes each (and that's real tough for Iggy at his age), then you have 80 minutes left over for other players.  Normally, that would be 40 minutes to Durant, 25 minutes to Looney and 15 minutes to assorted fill in guys.  Now?  I expect we'll see 20-25 minutes each of Cousins, Livingston, and Cook, and a few fill in minutes from Bell and Jerebko.  But those are all very limited players - they have no business playing important minutes against a team like the Raptors. 

[David Selig]

Looney may play in Game 6, he certainly wants too and apparently what happened in last game wasn't that serious. But he's pretty reckless to risk his health this way, especially before free agency IMO.

[Jaime L]

16 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I am a little more concerned about the Raptors.  They are a team that needs strong discipline, communication and execution from their entire top 7 to win.  If even two or three of those guys start to lose confidence, then things could go downhill fast. 

However, I totally understand what you mean about the holes in the Warriors roster.  Right now their best lineup is almost assuredly Curry, Livingston, Thompson, Iguodala and Green.  That is three very good defenders and two smart but small/slow guys in Livingston and Curry.  On offense that gives them two great shooters and five great passers, but virtually no floor spacing.  It is also badly undersized if the Raptors play some combination of Siakam/Ibaka/Gasol (which they will probably 90% of the time).  Iguodala and Thompson are going to really suffer and wear down if they're banging with those guys all game for rebounds. 

If they need more size, the only options are Bogut, who is washed defensively and terrible on offense, and Cousins, who had one of the most up and down games I've ever seen in the NBA last night.  Several times in this series he has been played off the court by the Raptors, but really there's no one else.

If you assume that Curry, Thompson, Green and Iguodala all combine to play 40 minutes each (and that's real tough for Iggy at his age), then you have 80 minutes left over for other players.  Normally, that would be 40 minutes to Durant, 25 minutes to Looney and 15 minutes to assorted fill in guys.  Now?  I expect we'll see 20-25 minutes each of Cousins, Livingston, and Cook, and a few fill in minutes from Bell and Jerebko.  But those are all very limited players - they have no business playing important minutes against a team like the Raptors. 

That Cousins game was batshit. I don't think either they (nor he) know what they're getting from him minute to minute, let alone game to game. And I guess that's still better in Kerr's mind than whatever Frankenstein Bogut can provide? 

And I very much agree that one of the bigger issues is that Kawhi (let alone Gasol, Siakam and Ibaka) is taller than anyone the Warriors actually want to play at this point. Warriors need to swarm and frantically team rebound to ever end a Raptors possession but it's gotta be exhausting. Maybe we'll see more McKinnie for this reason as rebounding is literally the one skill he possesses. 

Also it's clear Gasol is a built in mismatch when they run the offense through him in the post because he's just too big for everyone but Cousins to deal with. But you almost don't want to double him because he lacks aggression and happily chooses passing over scoring. 

What's noticeable is this phenomenon is reversed for the guards. As good as Lowry and VV are at staying in Curry/Klay's hip pocket, the splash bros have shown a willingness and ability to just shoot over them. These are the only two guys the Raptors need to worry about defensively. Wonder if we'll see more of Siakam/Kawhi on them to try to mix up looks and bother them with size (and bait Iggy/Draymond to try to score more over a smaller guy which will usually go poorly). Defensively, Siakam wrecked Wall in the playoffs last year. I get chasing a splash bro through endless screens is a different challenge but length and athleticism is always a useful defensive counter and just noting yet another area where the Raptors have options and versatility on both ends of the floor where the Warriors simply don't at this point. The Warriors will need to draw an inside straight to pull this off. 

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

What's noticeable is this phenomenon is reversed for the guards. As good as Lowry and VV are at staying in Curry/Klay's hip pocket, the splash bros have shown a willingness and ability to just shoot over them. These are the only two guys the Raptors need to worry about defensively. Wonder if we'll see more of Siakam/Kawhi on them to try to mix up looks and bother them with size (and bait Iggy/Draymond to try to score more over a smaller guy which will usually go poorly). Defensively, Siakam wrecked Wall in the playoffs last year. I get chasing a splash bro through endless screens is a different challenge but length and athleticism is always a useful defensive counter and just noting yet another area where the Raptors have options and versatility on both ends of the floor where the Warriors simply don't at this point. The Warriors will need to draw an inside straight to pull this off. 

That was actually one thing that was pretty surprising to me last night was that when the Raptors went up 6 and Kerr called timeout, I expected Leonard to be guarding Curry the rest of the way.  I think putting Lowry or Van Vleet on Iguodala is definitely sustainable - by the end of the game Iggy looked gassed. 

[DanteGabriel]

10 hours ago, Relic said:

Have to say that for as much as i bitch at KD's decision to join GS he really showed heart and character yesterday. The injury really sucks. 

Also, Toronto deserved o lose for the way their fans reacted when he went down. That was some bullshit, right there. 

Yeah, agree on KD's heart, especially since I made a bit of a snide remark about him after the last game. To be fair to our fellow KD detractors, it seemed even one of his teammates doubted him.

I was frankly shocked by the crowd reaction in Toronto, given the stereotype of nice, polite Canadians. Then again, I know Canadians have stereotypes about Toronto, so maybe less surprising? I admit, a few seconds after I realized that the fans were actually cheering and injury, I was just glad it wasn't Boston fans doing that.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Jaime L said:

The only case I can see for the Warriors is if they mentally broke the Raptors last night with them getting so close to a title and having it yanked away in the final 3 minutes. And if "make KD's sacrifice worth it" galvanizes the Warriors to some superhuman level.

This my thought as well. The Raptors have been getting great shooting from their role players. Meanwhile the Warriors have not. Anything goes if that flips or even just balances out.

If we were in the second round, I'd say they have no shot. But they need to just win the next two games and all is well. I have faith in Klay and Curry, and to some extent in Green as well. Don't forget that he was their best player in game seven against the Cavs. The challenge is large, but this is the greatest dynastical run since Jordan's Bulls. I'll treat them like an episode of GoT and only except that their dead once I see them die.

Quote

All things being equal, the way this ends is Kawhi methodically dismantling them in a game 6 that never feels close. I would love to be wrong and have a game 6 as tense and dramatic as game 5 but it's hard for me to visualize how we get that short of "Quinn Cook drinks from the elixir of life before the game and drains 7 threes"or something equally as random. 

I think GS comes out and punches the Raptors in the face to start game six, and I have no idea how anyone outside of Kawhi will respond to that.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Man, the more I think about the injury, the more I feel bad for KD. Set aside the money, which he lost tens of millions last night. His career is over as we know it. There will always be a place in the NBA for a 7 footer who can shoot, but he'll never be the same. In the year in which the king was unseated, Durant had a pathway to be legitimately be the best player in the world. And now he'll never have that crown. Never. I hope KD is at peace with how he decided to play last night, because if he's not, the next year is going to be really dark psychologically for him. 

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

I was frankly shocked by the crowd reaction in Toronto, given the stereotype of nice, polite Canadians. Then again, I know Canadians have stereotypes about Toronto, so maybe less surprising? I admit, a few seconds after I realized that the fans were actually cheering and injury, I was just glad it wasn't Boston fans doing that.

There can be truly nothing worse at times than crowd mentality. I'm betting most of the people who cheered feel pretty stupid about it today. Probably minutes after they jeered Durant.

Like I said, I was in a bar last night surrounded by fanatics. When Durant got injured there was an immediate reaction, all right, of anger directed at the GSW medical team for letting KD play.

And for all the Drake haters, it may surprise you to read this but Drake is a huge KD fan, and even has Durant's name tattooed on his wrist.

[Rhom]

7 hours ago, Triskele said:

I am dying to know what the full behind-the-scenes story is with the injury and the decision to play and don't know if we'll ever get it or not.  

And perhaps since my finals thoughts have proven fairly off base I'm still desirous of seeing my other recent rant supported, but last night feels like it supports the theory that this was some kind of Achilles all along and something more serious than a calf strain.  

If it really was just a calf strain all along and a professional med staff said he didn't have any risk of future injury and meant it than what happened last night was incredibly, historically unlucky.  So was that it?  Or was the behind-the-scenes dicier than that on what was up with the injury and how the decision to play was made.  Would sure love to know.

I’d love to know too, but I suspect this will go down in history alongside all the great NBA conspiracy theories.

We will be hearing tales of guys who had a second cousin twice removed who was operating the MRI for the first injury and swears it was a near complete tear the first time.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Rhom said:

I’d love to know too, but I suspect this will go down in history alongside all the great NBA conspiracy theories.

We will be hearing tales of guys who had a second cousin twice removed who was operating the MRI for the first injury and swears it was a near complete tear the first time.

I actually don’t think it’s that complicated. We know KD wants to be the best and we know he’s extremely sensitive about what people think about him. He’s on social media and saw everyone questioning him, so he tried to give it a go. It just happened to go as poorly as humanly possible. At the end of the day everyone owns some blame. The fans, the media, the medical staff, his teammates, the organization. Everyone. And the cost of our greed was ruining one of the 25 best players off all time. Keep that in mind the next time we find ourselves here.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

There can be truly nothing worse at times than crowd mentality. I'm betting most of the people who cheered feel pretty stupid about it today. Probably minutes after they jeered Durant.

Like I said, I was in a bar last night surrounded by fanatics. When Durant got injured there was an immediate reaction, all right, of anger directed at the GSW medical team for letting KD play.

And for all the Drake haters, it may surprise you to read this but Drake is a huge KD fan, and even has Durant's name tattooed on his wrist.

I think the major problem is not just the cheering of an injury, but that most people think the Raptors wouldn’t have a chance without the injuries. I suspect most basketball fans outside of Canada will not respect this championship if the Raptors pull it out. The cheering only codifies that.

Also, Drake has his number, not his name, tattooed on his wrist. Steph’s too. And people don’t like Drake because he’s a notorious jock sniffer. The latest champion is his favorite team.

[DanteGabriel]

13 hours ago, Triskele said:

I am dying to know what the full behind-the-scenes story is with the injury and the decision to play and don't know if we'll ever get it or not.  

And perhaps since my finals thoughts have proven fairly off base I'm still desirous of seeing my other recent rant supported, but last night feels like it supports the theory that this was some kind of Achilles all along and something more serious than a calf strain.  

If it really was just a calf strain all along and a professional med staff said he didn't have any risk of future injury and meant it than what happened last night was incredibly, historically unlucky.  So was that it?  Or was the behind-the-scenes dicier than that on what was up with the injury and how the decision to play was made.  Would sure love to know.

There's also the possibility that he was moving differently or tentatively because he was recovering from the earlier injury which put strain on other parts of his leg and led to another injury. But this is all just speculation and guesswork. I suspect Rhom is right and maybe we'll never get the real story but there will be endless grist for conspiracy theories.

[Jaime L]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I actually don’t think it’s that complicated. We know KD wants to be the best and we know he’s extremely sensitive about what people think about him. He’s on social media and saw everyone questioning him, so he tried to give it a go. It just happened to go as poorly as humanly possible. At the end of the day everyone owns some blame. The fans, the media, the medical staff, his teammates, the organization. Everyone. And the cost of our greed was ruining one of the 25 best players off all time. Keep that in mind the next time we find ourselves here.

Well, and him too. Here's the thing, there's no star player worth his salt who is not going to push himself to come back before he's ready with a title on the line. Saw Richard Sherman/Chris Long make comments to this effect on twitter. There's a reason we still lionize Willis Reed to this day. 

It's just really sad how it ended up. Reminded me of RGIII in that playoff game against Seattle. 

[Maithanet]

4 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

It's just really sad how it ended up. Reminded me of RGIII in that playoff game against Seattle. 

Well you know I'm gonna comment on this .

RG3 was a much more egregious case than Durant.  Both guys were coming back from an injury ~ a month ago.  But RG3 reinjured himself early in the game and then kept playing for another excruciating 30 minutes until he reinjured himself again (much more severely).  Durant seemed fine - he was moving and shooting very well, right up until his catastrophic injury.  All early indications were that Durant/GSW had made the right call, until the moment when everything went horribly wrong. 

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think the major problem is not just the cheering of an injury, but that most people think the Raptors wouldn’t have a chance without the injuries. I suspect most basketball fans outside of Canada will not respect this championship if the Raptors pull it out. The cheering only codifies that.

Also, Drake has his number, not his name, tattooed on his wrist. Steph’s too. And people don’t like Drake because he’s a notorious jock sniffer. The latest champion is his favorite team.

Gee, the last I heard most of North America was cheering for the Raptors to win, now they’ve flip-flopped?

Drake was asked to be the Raptors’ global rep back in 2013, so you know, he kinda meets players from every team and has done so for years. Not to mention he’s a rap star. Not to mention he has a mansion in Hidden Hills, outside LA, which is in California, which is where GS plays, so it’s ok to be a fan of players not playing for Toronto. And that includes players who used to play for Toronto and who Drake just may have been a fan of, who moved to a team that became champions and then moved to another team that became champions. If you get my drift.

I understood it was the name, not the number, I stand corrected and informed.

I'm not even a Drake fan, but I think a lot of other people are.   I am a fan of the Super Fan, though, a great rep for the team.

[Jaime L]

17 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Well you know I'm gonna comment on this .

RG3 was a much more egregious case than Durant.  Both guys were coming back from an injury ~ a month ago.  But RG3 reinjured himself early in the game and then kept playing for another excruciating 30 minutes until he reinjured himself again (much more severely).  Durant seemed fine - he was moving and shooting very well, right up until his catastrophic injury.  All early indications were that Durant/GSW had made the right call, until the moment when everything went horribly wrong. 

Pretty much agree. The Skins absolutely will always do the diametrically wrong thing 100% of the time. If this was an organization that was focused on protecting its franchise guy or was just ever interested in doing the right thing to begin with, he wouldn't have played the last 5 weeks of the season. 

The Warriors though, it's a greyer area. What I hear is he looked really shaky/not ready in practice. But maybe he looked better the day of the game? Or maybe that's what they told themselves?

The one thing I would really have an issue with is if it's true the team doctors told Durant he couldn't make the injury worse. If so, that's malpractice. Let him make his own choice but you have to tell him the risks. 

[Maithanet]

16 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

The Warriors though, it's a greyer area. What I hear is he looked really shaky/not ready in practice. But maybe he looked better the day of the game? Or maybe that's what they told themselves?

The one thing I would really have an issue with is if it's true the team doctors told Durant he couldn't make the injury worse. If so, that's malpractice. Let him make his own choice but you have to tell him the risks. 

It's impossible to know.  Even when they say "you can't make the injury worse", that just means that there's nothing about the injury that makes reinjury more likely.  Which is possible (although in this particular case seems unlikely). 

I've no doubt that everyone - trainers, doctors, coaches, Durant himself, EVERYONE had a lot of pressure on them to get back on the court.  It's what we expect of star athletes, and part of why they're paid millions of dollars.  Now, that doesn't mean it isn't the wrong call, it obviously was.  But everyone is going to lean on the side of "play through the injury" rather than "wait till next year".  Can you imagine a situation where Durant is mostly healthy, probably able to play, but he decides to just sit through game 5 because he doesn't want to risk it?  I mean...that's just not how professional athletes think.

The kinda scary/crazy hypothetical is if the situation would have been any different if Durant were under contract for 3 more years.  It's no different for Durant himself (the calculus is the same), but for the Warriors trainers and coaches, they have a lot more incentive to think about next year if they know Durant is going to be a Warrior.  Whereas if he's 90% gone, then the only thing that matters is whether he can help you win this year.  In which case, you do everything you can to push him onto the court.  I don't know whether that happened or not, but it's very possible.