If Renly lives, how does the war play out?

[nyser1]

41 minutes ago, Lion of the West said:

I don't find it very likely that either Redwyne or Hightower would aid in a siege.

Lord Redqyne have two sons already as hostages to the lannisters so it seems that his hands are tied, if I recall. And Lord Hightower didn't raise his banners before Renly defeated Stannis, so why would Lord Hightower do so afterwards? Lord Hightower does not seem particular interested in war or currying favor at court.

Being summoned by his liege lord to fight risks quite serious consequences as well. Particularly if Renly's massive army (plus throw in Stannis survivors and ships) on KL. Tywin is screwed, Tully/Stark forces blocking the West and an army 4-5x times bigger to the East plus ships. PLUS NO friends whatsoever. In fact, it is a perfect time for opportunists to join in.

Lannisport and the Rock are also utterly screwed. Even if the Redwynes and Hightowers don't join the fray until after KL falls, they are not going to stay put after being summoned to face justice from the victors.

[Baelor 'Breakspear']

On 6/5/2019 at 7:50 PM, Lion of the West said:

Nice fan service to Stark fans, but not likely going to happen, at least not in terms of the military development.

That most of Stannis' army joins with Renly after having been utterly crushed is not unlikely. Second to that is that when Tywin faces Renly, to prevent the capture of King's Landing, the outcome will be decisive. I for one can only come up with two major battles that did not have a decisive result, Green Fork and the Fords and the battle in the Dance of the Dragons where Lord Lannister got himself killed. At all other points, when there's been a major battle, the losers have been utterly vanquished. I see no reason as to why the loser in the battle between Tywin and Renly would not essentially be destroyed as Stannis was after his defeat on the Blackwater.

If Renly would besiege King's Landing, as in your scenario, he will need both an army on both sides of the Blackwater, put a chain or something over the river and then keep a fleet out at sea. That means being spread out and being vulnerable to both sorties from the enemy within, and a relief force. The only benefit I see for Renly is that with the Tyrells on his side, he is more likely to outlast the capital in terms of supplies, which is a part of sieges that really shouldn't be ignored however.

The most likely scenario is that when Renly's massive army comes north, Tywin goes south along the Kingsroad, and the two faces each other as Renly tries to cross the river. Which if we're looking on the carnage inflicted by a modest garrison on Stannis' army, means that Tywin will be doing the butcher's work more than Renly. Even while Renly should have a good chance to win by attrition over Tywin. And crossing the river is something that Renly would need to do, regardless if it was to take the capital by storm or siege.

But the important part is that I see no reason, according to Westerosi military history and traditions, that this would not be the decisive battle to settle the matter between Joffrey and Renly about who is the king.

After this decisive battle, the winner would deal with the vanquished; the end of either House Lannister or the black-haired Baratheons, and then turn his eyes north to deal with the separatists.

While Renly is ambitious he don't strike me as adventerous or militant so more wars after securing his throne and mending the realm seems very out-of-charater for him.

 

I don't think the Stark part is fanservice. First they can't attack eachother as they have fought 3 wars in a short span. Secondly Sansa is dead (remember Cersei in the battle of Blackwater).

 

I think just as the Stannis vassals joined the Lannister after they got destroyed at Blackwater, they would join Renly. I don't think that a battle at KL would that decisive. KL doesn't have food (remember that the riot happened because of this) and Renly go a huge army,so he can simply starve out KL, and avoid any fight.

 

Renly does have the power to besiege KL. He has 120 K army and has 3 of the biggest fleets (Redwyne, Hightower and Stannis's). So he van put aroungd 10k-20K in every gate,hire some sellswords with the gold of the Highgarden (They can sell food for A LOT+are the second richest house) the fleet in blackwater and have a big host to guard if Tywin's army comes ( Stannis army+sellswords+ Garlan Tyrell with some of Highgarden's vassals) which would be according to ADWD 10K. 

[Baelor 'Breakspear']

Just now, Baelor 'Breakspear' said:

I don't think the Stark part is fanservice. First they can't attack eachother as they have fought 3 wars in a short span. Secondly Sansa is dead (remember Cersei in the battle of Blackwater).

 

I think just as the Stannis vassals joined the Lannister after they got destroyed at Blackwater, they would join Renly. I don't think that a battle at KL would that decisive. KL doesn't have food (remember that the riot happened because of this) and Renly go a huge army,so he can simply starve out KL, and avoid any fight.

 

Renly does have the power to besiege KL. He has 120 K army and has 3 of the biggest fleets (Redwyne, Hightower and Stannis's). So he van put aroungd 10k-20K in every gate,hire some sellswords with the gold of the Highgarden (They can sell food for A LOT+are the second richest house) the fleet in blackwater and have a big host to guard if Tywin's army comes ( Stannis army+sellswords+ Garlan Tyrell with some of Highgarden's vassals) which would be according to ADWD 10K. 

 

[Minsc]

On ‎6‎/‎6‎/‎2019 at 3:43 PM, Lion of the West said:

And Lord Hightower didn't raise his banners before Renly defeated Stannis, so why would Lord Hightower do so afterwards? Lord Hightower does not seem particular interested in war or currying favor at court. 

2

Lord Hightower had pledged to Renly in ACOK so I don't see why he wouldn't raise banners for him.

[A Ghost of Someone]

On 6/1/2019 at 10:02 PM, Eddard Waters said:

For whatever reason, Renly isn't killed by Melisandre's shadow and Renly crushes Stannis' forces outside Storms End.

So what now? Is there any hope for Joffrey and the Lannisters with Renly (and the Tyrells) victorious?

How do events play out on Dragonstone with Stannis dead and his army annihilated? 

Then Tywin Lannister and his incest offspring have a really big problem. Stannis might make common cause with Robb but I rather see him brooding on Dragonstone. I think Renly and the Tyrells might also make common cause with Robb, and team up to take down Tywin's army but we still have the Theon and the iron born factor. I think Renly would have won the Iron Throne for a time so that is why GRRM took him out and probably why He had the Red Wedding take out Robb as the momentum was on their sides. Stannis was doomed to fail I thit