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Eddard Waters

If Renly lives, how does the war play out?

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For whatever reason, Renly isn't killed by Melisandre's shadow and Renly crushes Stannis' forces outside Storms End.

So what now? Is there any hope for Joffrey and the Lannisters with Renly (and the Tyrells) victorious?

How do events play out on Dragonstone with Stannis dead and his army annihilated? 

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13 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said:

For whatever reason, Renly isn't killed by Melisandre's shadow and Renly crushes Stannis' forces outside Storms End.

So what now? Is there any hope for Joffrey and the Lannisters with Renly (and the Tyrells) victorious?

How do events play out on Dragonstone with Stannis dead and his army annihilated? 

I think the wild card would be the massive cache of wildfire under Lannister control in Kings Landing. Tywin's 20K troops, the walls of KL and the wildfire cleverly deployed could still be a game changer that scatters Renly's 100k host. 

I see Renly's supporters as fair weather types expecting to simply roll over any opposition with their massive numbers. They know they don't have the legitimacy and were probably hoping to pull a fait accompli. So if the Lannisters managed to use the wildfire to rout Renly's host  and then deploy a well timed charge by Tywin's full force, Renly might see his army dissolve and desert. 

If Stannis fell, Dragonstone would probably be held by the garrison left behind and Stannis' wife and daugther. If Renly won, he'll probably forgive them and give them some sort of settlement. If Renly lost and died at KL for some reason, then it'll depend on the balance of power post battle. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Br16 said:

I think the wild card would be the massive cache of wildfire under Lannister control in Kings Landing. Tywin's 20K troops, the walls of KL and the wildfire cleverly deployed could still be a game changer that scatters Renly's 100k host. 

I see Renly's supporters as fair weather types expecting to simply roll over any opposition with their massive numbers. They know they don't have the legitimacy and were probably hoping to pull a fait accompli. So if the Lannisters managed to use the wildfire to rout Renly's host  and then deploy a well timed charge by Tywin's full force, Renly might see his army dissolve and desert. 

If Stannis fell, Dragonstone would probably be held by the garrison left behind and Stannis' wife and daugther. If Renly won, he'll probably forgive them and give them some sort of settlement. If Renly lost and died at KL for some reason, then it'll depend on the balance of power post battle. 

 

Renly could always just starve out KL.

Also something could go horribly wrong with the wildfire leading to KL getting blown up.

If KL does fall, and Tywin still refuses to back down do to his pride, will that be enough to effect the Westerlords loyalty to Tywin? 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Eddard Waters said:

Renly could always just starve out KL.

Also something could go horribly wrong with the wildfire leading to KL getting blown up.

If KL does fall, and Tywin still refuses to back down do to his pride, will that be enough to effect the Westerlords loyalty to Tywin? 

I was thinking something along the lines of the wildfire being used offensively against Renly somehow by a coordinated defense and Tywin's army.  Its risky, but it's possible.

If KL does fall or get engulfed in wildfire, and Tywin is too proud to yield, I see two possibilities:

1) If for some reason, Renly dies or loses a significant portion of his army in KL (perhaps due to wildfire) and Cersei and her children are gone, then Tywin's army (if still intact) will retreat in good order to Casterly Rock. Robb may or may not attack him depending on his priorities. Westerlords loyalty would probably still stay with Tywin given the unclear situation of the realm.

2)If Renly wins a slam dunk victory wiping out the Lannisters of Kings Landing, and Tywin loses troops in a botched defensive assault, then I could see Tywin's army crumbling down to a few thousand mounted loyalists. He'll probably be able to escape and hold Casterly Rock and Lannisport. Most Westerlords might effectively become neutral at this point but won't say outright (they'll just say they have no strength left). What happens to Tywin depends on how well he marshals his few thousand loyalists, the legendary defenses of Casterly Rock, Lannisport City Watch and his remaining gold. 

Edited by Br16

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I think Renly would go on to win the game of thrones. He was loved. He had a great army. He'd have the Redwyne fleet as well as Stannis'. I think it would play out the way Cat wanted it to. The Lannisters wedged between the North and Southern armies. The RW may still happen, as Roose would still have an eye for the role of Lord Paramount and Walder would still be fuming over Rob reigning on the proposed marriage. But Renly's existence would rob Tywin of his Reach host. 


That all said, it's not wise to bet against Tywin. If he thought his goose was cooked he'd almost certainly change tact and try to use arranged marriages or something to weave his way back in. It's wise to fear Tywin. Even if he did appear to be weak, you know he's not. 

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50 minutes ago, TheThreeEyedCow said:

I think Renly would go on to win the game of thrones. He was loved. He had a great army. He'd have the Redwyne fleet as well as Stannis'. I think it would play out the way Cat wanted it to. The Lannisters wedged between the North and Southern armies. The RW may still happen, as Roose would still have an eye for the role of Lord Paramount and Walder would still be fuming over Rob reigning on the proposed marriage. But Renly's existence would rob Tywin of his Reach host. 


That all said, it's not wise to bet against Tywin. If he thought his goose was cooked he'd almost certainly change tact and try to use arranged marriages or something to weave his way back in. It's wise to fear Tywin. Even if he did appear to be weak, you know he's not. 

Tywin would most likely bargain for Jaime to be out of the KG and retreat back west

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2 hours ago, hnv said:

Tywin would most likely bargain for Jaime to be out of the KG and retreat back west

If Renly lives Reach would still be hostile and that would be huge problem to Tywin bc he would have only 3 options how to return  to WL

A) via Riverlands

B ) via Reach

C) use ships and sail around Dorne

In optio A he would have to beat armies of Riverlands and North. Besides Edmure already stop Tywin's task force when he tried to use that optio.

B optio would mean that he would have to engage with an army that would have more heavy cavalrymen than he had soldiers in his whole army in their home turf. Or optio B would be suicide.

To my knowledge Lannisters do not have enough ships to take his army home so he would have leave most of his men and he could only take with him only very few people. Besides his ships would have to bypass navies of Stannis, Renly, pirates of Stepstones and finally Ironborn. So optio C seems to be even worse than others.

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3 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

If Renly lives Reach would still be hostile and that would be huge problem to Tywin bc he would have only 3 options how to return  to WL

A) via Riverlands

B ) via Reach

C) use ships and sail around Dorne

Honestly, I think he'd just cut his way through the RL as fast as he could. It wouldn't be impossible. And if he did reach the Westerlands... I dunno. I wouldn't want to bet against him. Even if he had bad odds. 
 

6 hours ago, hnv said:

Tywin would most likely bargain for Jaime to be out of the KG and retreat back west

We'd also have to factor in LF. With Cersei on the throne (as regent) there's every chance LF would still be inclined to aid Tywin. He wanted a war, after all.

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I'd say that Renly would use the info that Cersei's children were the product of an incestuous affair with her brother as an excuse to execute her, the kiddies, and Jaime. And publicize it to the max. That would attaint the Lannisters to the extent that Tywin would have to retreat to Casterly Rock in shame, not to mention that he would no longer have dynastic aspirations anent the Iron Throne.

Renly's next step would be to clear his name of kinslaying in connection with Stannis's death. 

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On 6/1/2019 at 8:02 PM, Eddard Waters said:

For whatever reason, Renly isn't killed by Melisandre's shadow and Renly crushes Stannis' forces outside Storms End.

So what now? Is there any hope for Joffrey and the Lannisters with Renly (and the Tyrells) victorious?

How do events play out on Dragonstone with Stannis dead and his army annihilated? 

He dies after he crushes Stannis and Stannis rallies so the story continues as written 

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Renly is the one contender who realistically could have brought peace to the 7k and ruined the Illyrio/Varys/ or Dany plans of a Targaryen Restoration. He could have:

 

-Defeated or appeased the Starks & Tullies (autonomy, semi-autonomy, lands, titles, and/or straight out military defeat). He also could appeal to the starks as being a Baratheon hero who defeats the Stark's enemies (like Bobby B and the Ned back in the Day).

-Same applies to House Arryn

-Defeated the Ironborn

-Appeased Dorne with Lannister heads (yes yes Doran's plan..but Doran the cautious is not going to risk war if the odds are EXTREMELY unfavorable. Heck, he has avoided far better opportunities so far).

-Defeated the Lannisters.

Unfortunately, he would also need to kill Varys and Littlefinger before they kill him/get him killed.

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Would Renly keep Littlefinger around? I think Renly and Littlefinger's "friendship" is overstated, I'm sure Renly found him amusing but little else. Plus, he'll have to  award his loyal followers positions, so he would probably send Littlefinger packing. 

As for Varys, remember that his assassination of Kevan happened when Kevan was isolated and alone in the Red Keep. It would be much harder to kill Renly, a king who would have his King's Guard defending him at all times, as per Westerosi tradition. I don't think Varys could pull it off, and even if he did, the secret tunnels of the Red Keep would be found out. 

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The main thing with Renly winning is that Tywin don't leave Harrenhall to go west, he leaves Harrenhall to protect King's Landing against Renly. And mind you, Renly would then have to cross the Blackwater without Stnanis' navy, most likely, and with Tywin's whole army on the other side. What I see is a bloodbath to put the Redgrass Field to shame, regardless if Tywin or Renly, or perhaps we should say Mace or Olenna, claims victory.

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Posted (edited)

I think Renly sieges KL instead of an immediate attack. Most Of Stannis's army joins him except some supporters with Davos in charge. Tywin goes to save KL but with a way bigger army and without the support from the Tyrells he doesn't crush Renly. Know the Lannister fight in 2 fronts, against Renly and against Robb. Tywin is occupied with the fighting so RW doesn;t happen. Robb return to the north where he recaptures WF,kills Theon and Ramsay. Renly and Lannisters fight in the reach and stormland, northeners fight Lannisters in the riverlands. I guess Lannisters are kinda screwed, Renly wins the throne but costly and has to give the north independence. Dorne would stay neutral, same as the Vale Martells are happy with revenge of the Lannister's   ( difficult to find out what happens to Myrcella) and Tyrell are royal, so Dany or Aegon won't find any support if they comes. Renly is quite ambicious tho, so maybe he tries to conquer the stepstones, Iron islands or Essos after he has gotten the throne. What is difficult is to guess is what Doran/LF/Varys do

Edited by Baelor 'Breakspear'
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27 minutes ago, Baelor 'Breakspear' said:

I think Renly sieges KL instead of an immediate attack. Most Of Stannis's army joins him except some supporters with Davos in charge. Tywin goes to save KL but with a way bigger army and without the support from the Tyrells he doesn't crush Renly. Know the Lannister fight in 2 fronts, against Renly and against Robb. Tywin is occupied with the fighting so RW doesn;t happen. Robb return to the north where he recaptures WF,kills Theon and Ramsay. Renly and Lannisters fight in the reach and stormland, northeners fight Lannisters in the riverlands. I guess Lannisters are kinda screwed, Renly wins the throne but costly and has to give the north independence. Dorne would stay neutral, same as the Vale Martells are happy with revenge of the Lannister's   ( difficult to find out what happens to Myrcella) and Tyrell are royal, so Dany or Aegon won't find any support if they comes. Renly is quite ambicious tho, so maybe he tries to conquer the stepstones, Iron islands or Essos after he has gotten the throne. What is difficult is to guess is what Doran/LF/Varys do

Nice fan service to Stark fans, but not likely going to happen, at least not in terms of the military development.

That most of Stannis' army joins with Renly after having been utterly crushed is not unlikely. Second to that is that when Tywin faces Renly, to prevent the capture of King's Landing, the outcome will be decisive. I for one can only come up with two major battles that did not have a decisive result, Green Fork and the Fords and the battle in the Dance of the Dragons where Lord Lannister got himself killed. At all other points, when there's been a major battle, the losers have been utterly vanquished. I see no reason as to why the loser in the battle between Tywin and Renly would not essentially be destroyed as Stannis was after his defeat on the Blackwater.

If Renly would besiege King's Landing, as in your scenario, he will need both an army on both sides of the Blackwater, put a chain or something over the river and then keep a fleet out at sea. That means being spread out and being vulnerable to both sorties from the enemy within, and a relief force. The only benefit I see for Renly is that with the Tyrells on his side, he is more likely to outlast the capital in terms of supplies, which is a part of sieges that really shouldn't be ignored however.

The most likely scenario is that when Renly's massive army comes north, Tywin goes south along the Kingsroad, and the two faces each other as Renly tries to cross the river. Which if we're looking on the carnage inflicted by a modest garrison on Stannis' army, means that Tywin will be doing the butcher's work more than Renly. Even while Renly should have a good chance to win by attrition over Tywin. And crossing the river is something that Renly would need to do, regardless if it was to take the capital by storm or siege.

But the important part is that I see no reason, according to Westerosi military history and traditions, that this would not be the decisive battle to settle the matter between Joffrey and Renly about who is the king.

After this decisive battle, the winner would deal with the vanquished; the end of either House Lannister or the black-haired Baratheons, and then turn his eyes north to deal with the separatists.

While Renly is ambitious he don't strike me as adventerous or militant so more wars after securing his throne and mending the realm seems very out-of-charater for him.

 

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On 6/1/2019 at 11:02 PM, Eddard Waters said:

For whatever reason, Renly isn't killed by Melisandre's shadow and Renly crushes Stannis' forces outside Storms End.

So what now? Is there any hope for Joffrey and the Lannisters with Renly (and the Tyrells) victorious?

How do events play out on Dragonstone with Stannis dead and his army annihilated? 

No, because Renly was popular.  The surviving Stannis people will jump to his side.  The Lannisters were fighting Robb already.  Their only hope comes from Ironborn forcing Robb to return to the north.   Tyein can consolidate his people against Renly and use his unlimited gold to bring in sellswords.

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3 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

No, because Renly was popular.  The surviving Stannis people will jump to his side.  The Lannisters were fighting Robb already.  Their only hope comes from Ironborn forcing Robb to return to the north.   Tyein can consolidate his people against Renly and use his unlimited gold to bring in sellswords.

An often overlooked point that the Royal Fleet goes to Renly. Conceivable that Mace's Highgarden Force and the Redwyne + Hightower Fleets advance on Lannisport while the Royal fleet blockades KL as Renly marches.

 

Tywin would be in no position to recruit foreign sellswords. He would be landlocked. Even worse is the dilemma of time.

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Another thing is that Reach has enough men to invade WL and bc most of warriors are not there defending their homes that hypothetical task force would cause massive damages and unlike northmen they would have ability to sack Lannisport. If Renly uses that option Tywin would have to make some very troublesome choices like would he really sacrifice his own lands so that his grandson could keep his crown. 

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On 6/2/2019 at 6:02 AM, Eddard Waters said:

For whatever reason, Renly isn't killed by Melisandre's shadow and Renly crushes Stannis' forces outside Storms End.

So what now? Is there any hope for Joffrey and the Lannisters with Renly (and the Tyrells) victorious?

How do events play out on Dragonstone with Stannis dead and his army annihilated? 

The  scenario will be a quagmire to both Lannisters and the newly created Kingdom of Of the North and trident.

Basing on the outcome of Renly victory over Stannis it would mean both Tywin and Robb will have to change strategy and tactics to figure how to deal with Renly on their own terms.

1. For The Lannisters the resources to raise armies will be left to Tywins army 20000 strong at Harrenhal in the Riverlands, 10000 Army led by ser Stafford and ser Forley Prester garrisson at Golden tooth defending the pass to the Westerlands, in KL the almost 7000 Host composed of the gold cloaks,hired sellswords and Knights and men at arms sent by the surrounding castles near the capital KL plus the remaining 50 ships royal fleet protecting blackwater bay in KL.

2.For the Kingdom of the North and the Trident the resources to raise the armies  will be down to the relief force 6000 strong led by Robb in liberating the first siege of Riverrun by Jaime, remnants of Edmure's Riverlands host plus garrison gathered  in Riverrun led by Lord Tytos Blackwood(They did number 11000 at the battle of the fords),retreated 10000 host from the battle on the green fork led by Roose Bolton encamped at the crossroad plus northern 400 garrison left at the Twins castle under the command of Ser Helman Talhart and Lord walder frey(frey also commanded a garrison 0f 400 remaining behind at the Twins .

Renly would have a big host perhaps retain his numbers 70-80000 after defeating Stannis while he figure's  next cause of action either neutralize Tywin or Robb as he stated to Cat before matching with the eventual goal to seize KL

Sidenotes*

Dorne and the Vale might sit out the conflict preserving their armies awaiting to make moves when the it convenient for them.

Redwynes Horas and Hobber will be still kept as hostages in King's Landing, preventing House Redwyne from joining the Tyrells in declaring for King Renly that means no Redwyne Fleet.

At the time of Robb's crowning coinciding with Stannis Siege of Storm's end Theon found out that Balon had already set his mind and plans in motion meaning that the North will still be invaded by the Ironmen and will keep the north reserves engaged offering no chance to support robb in the riverlands.

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22 hours ago, nyser1 said:

An often overlooked point that the Royal Fleet goes to Renly. Conceivable that Mace's Highgarden Force and the Redwyne + Hightower Fleets advance on Lannisport while the Royal fleet blockades KL as Renly marches.

 

Tywin would be in no position to recruit foreign sellswords. He would be landlocked. Even worse is the dilemma of time.

I don't find it very likely that either Redwyne or Hightower would aid in a siege.

Lord Redqyne have two sons already as hostages to the lannisters so it seems that his hands are tied, if I recall. And Lord Hightower didn't raise his banners before Renly defeated Stannis, so why would Lord Hightower do so afterwards? Lord Hightower does not seem particular interested in war or currying favor at court.

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