Heresy 223 and where we go from here

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

So what is the chronology then? 

Feather is referring to discussions on Heresy questioning the orthodoxy that for some unknown reason the Long Night happened. During the Long Night the Others tooled up, but eventually were defeated, whereupon the Wall was built by mortal men to prevent them coming back.

What some of us have discussed is that given that the Wall was actually raised by magic, it may have been the creation of it which caused the Long Night and has upset the seasons, which is one of the reasons some of us in these here parts hold that the fall of the Wall will not be a disaster but the key to sorting this mess

[Direwolf Blitzer]

On 6/7/2019 at 9:21 PM, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Can I please get a link to Markg171's post about Dany's birth? I'd love to read it.

http://thelasthearth.com/thread/572/dany

[Melifeather]

16 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

But that doesn’t account for trade. Jon negotiates a loan from the iron bank in order to do trade during winter, all the merchants from Pentod, Lys, Myr, Tyrosh are going to come over and say “man, you guys are having a long winter!” Under your assumptions, traders and merchants from Essos wouldn’t think it strange that Westeros has strange seasons and Westerosi would wonder why these traders find their seasons odd. There would have to be knowledge of supply and demand for shipping....I am doubtful of the claim that they just didn’t know the other continent had different seasonal variances. I think it’s mucch more likely that they have a different climate but still experience seasonal

changes

The reason why Jon is preparing for a very long winter is because the last summer lasted nine years - well, Tyrion said nine, but everyone else says ten years. If the extended seasons have been going on for 8000 years, it would be widely known and people would be accustomed to it. The majority of mentions regarding the length of seasons are with characters in Westeros. 

Quote

AGOT - Tyrion III

"As you say, my lord." He had been born in the dead of winter, a terrible cruel one that the maesters said had lasted near three years, but Tyrion's earliest memories were of spring.

"When I was a boy, it was said that a long summer always meant a long winter to come. This summer has lasted nine years, Tyrion, and a tenth will soon be upon us. Think on that."

"When I was a boy," Tyrion replied, "my wet nurse told me that one day, if men were good, the gods would give the world a summer without ending. Perhaps we've been better than we thought, and the Great Summer is finally at hand." He grinned.

Valyria and the Lands of the Long Summer indicate a warmer climate. Winter may not reach that far south. I do find it interesting however, that Dany understands that the reason why dragons died out was because magic had died.

Quote

AGOT - Daenerys III

Viserys had told her that the last Targaryen dragons had died no more than a century and a half ago, during the reign of Aegon III, who was called the Dragonbane. That did not seem so long ago to Dany. "Everywhere?" she said, disappointed. "Even in the east?" Magic had died in the west when the Doom fell on Valyria and the Lands of the Long Summer, and neither spell-forged steel nor stormsingers nor dragons could hold it back, but Dany had always heard that the east was different. It was said that manticores prowled the islands of the Jade Sea, that basilisks infested the jungles of Yi Ti, that spellsingers, warlocks, and aeromancers practiced their arts openly in Asshai, while shadowbinders and bloodmages worked terrible sorceries in the black of night. Why shouldn't there be dragons too?

 

Quote

AGOT - Jon VII

The old men called this weather spirit summer, and said it meant the season was giving up its ghosts at last. After this the cold would come, they warned, and a long summer always meant a long winter. This summer had lasted ten years. Jon had been a babe in arms when it began.

 

Quote

ACOK - Prologue

Shireen gave a brave little nod. "Mother said the white raven means it's not summer anymore."

"That is so, my lady. The white ravens fly only from the Citadel." Cressen's fingers went to the chain about his neck, each link forged from a different metal, each symbolizing his mastery of another branch of learning; the maester's collar, mark of his order. In the pride of his youth, he had worn it easily, but now it seemed heavy to him, the metal cold against his skin. "They are larger than other ravens, and more clever, bred to carry only the most important messages. This one came to tell us that the Conclave has met, considered the reports and measurements made by maesters all over the realm, and declared this great summer done at last. Ten years, two turns, and sixteen days it lasted, the longest summer in living memory."

"Will it get cold now?" Shireen was a summer child, and had never known true cold.

The following passage is one of only three mentions of seasonal change in Essos:

Quote

ACOK - Daenerys II

All the great of Qarth will come to see my dragons, Dany thought, yet she thanked Xaro for his kindness before she sent him on his way. Pyat Pree took his leave as well, vowing to petition the Undying Ones for an audience. "A honor rare as summer snows." Before he left he kissed her bare feet with his pale blue lips and pressed on her a gift, a jar of ointment that he swore would let her see the spirits of the air. Last of the three seekers to depart was Quaithe the shadowbinder. From her Dany received only a warning. "Beware," the woman in the red lacquer mask said

.

Daario mentions winter, but it sounds more like a wish than anything:

Quote

ASOS - Daenerys IV

"Are you skilled in the use of those handsome blades?" Dany asked him.

"Prendahl and Sallor would tell you so, if dead men could talk. I count no day as lived unless I have loved a woman, slain a foeman, and eaten a fine meal . . . and the days that I have lived are as numberless as the stars in the sky. I make of slaughter a thing of beauty, and many a tumbler and fire dancer has wept to the gods that they might be half so quick, a quarter so graceful. I would tell you the names of all the men I have slain, but before I could finish your dragons would grow large as castles, the walls of Yunkai would crumble into yellow dust, and winter would come and go and come again."

Dany laughed. She liked the swagger she saw in this Daario Naharis. "Draw your sword and swear it to my service."

 

Quote

 

ADWD - Daenerys X

Dany set off through the tall grass at a brisk pace. The earth felt warm between her toes. The grass was as tall as she was. It never seemed so high when I was mounted on my silver, riding beside my sun-and-stars at the head of his khalasar. As she walked, she tapped her thigh with the pitmaster's whip. That, and the rags on her back, were all she had taken from Meereen.

Though she walked through a green kingdom, it was not the deep rich green of summer. Even here autumn made its presence felt, and winter would not be far behind. The grass was paler than she remembered, a wan and sickly green on the verge of going yellow. After that would come brown. The grass was dying.

 

I wonder what winter is like in the Dothraki sea?

We don't have enough information about Essos to know if they have extended or normal seasons, but if their climate is warmer due to being further south, it may not be noticeable enough to be a topic of discussion.

[MaesterSam]

On 6/7/2019 at 11:40 PM, Feather Crystal said:

These are just a few examples that demonstrate that GRRM has deliberately written dual meanings for Melisandre’s visions. They apply to current events at the Wall and to the geographical areas involving the Greyjoys. This is why I said both of our explanations are correct. Two major Targaryen family members resided at and beyond the Wall on the great northern sea, while Euron and Victarion harry the Sunset and Narrow seas. Even the vision of dragons applies to both sides, because I suspect Euron and Victarion will succeed in securing one or more of Dany's dragons.

You're right - that's where the focus is, and I fully agree that the Greyjoys are somehow related/important to what is happening in the North. Their religion literally worships a dead deity, and their "baptism" ritual symbolizes death and resurrection as a "harder and stronger" being that can not die again. 

What's strange is that some of Mel's visions are of the very near future/almost the present (finding the dead rangers, the grey girl on a dying horse), while others must be of the more distant future as Euron does not yet have a dragon or any dwarves to caper for him. It is also notable that Dany at one point has a dream (shortly before marrying Hizdahr, I believe) where they are hooking up and Hizdahr's lips are blue and his cock is cold as ice. I had previously taken this as foreshadowing of Dany marrying Euron ("one to dread"), but the show has him with Cersei which does fit better. (I can't see Dany choosing to join someone that evil, even if she gets a little carried away with her House words). So now I don't know what to make of it, but it fits with the idea that the rise of Euron is being noticed by all magic users who access prophetic visions. 

The other individual popping up in everyone's visions appears to be Tyrion, which IMO has not received the attention it deserves. So let's take a look:

Dwarves appear in both of Aeron's nightmares/visions, first just capering but then in the second vision they are having sex while Euron and (presumably) Cersei watch and laugh. This looks to me like a plausible future scenario, whereby Euron gives Tyrion to Cersei (as opposed to the Sand Snakes in the show) to win her alliance, and Cersei then takes her revenge starting with his complete humiliation. The other dwarf is most likely Penny.

In Mel's vision, it is not specified that the lovers are dwarves, but there are clear similarities in the descriptions and setting (dragons overhead). Let's compare:

Quote

Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing. Through curtains of fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky. (Melisandre, ADWD)

Quote

Clad head to heel in scale as dark as onyx, he sat upon a mound of blackened skulls as dwarfs capered round his feet and a forest burned behind him.

“The bleeding star bespoke the end,” he said to Aeron. “These are the last days, when the world shall be broken and remade. A new god shall be born from the graves and charnel pits.” Then Euron lifted a great horn to his lips and blew, and dragons and krakens and sphinxes came at his command and bowed before him. (Aeron, The Forsaken)

 

So here we have the framing of first skulls, then either fucking bodies or capering dwarves, followed by dragons. All in the context of Euron and his bloody tide conquering and killing.

Aeron's second vision explains the capering in more detail:
 

Quote

He seemed more squid than man, a monster fathered by a kraken of the deep, his face a mass of writhing tentacles. Beside him stood a shadow in woman’s form, long and tall and terrible, her hands alive with pale white fire. Dwarves capered for their amusement, male and female, naked and misshapen, locked in carnal embrace, biting and tearing at each other as Euron and his mate laughed and laughed and laughed … (Aeron, The Forsaken)

The wording here is clearly very similar... 

bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing.

locked in carnal embrace, biting and tearing at each other

... and with both descriptions occurring between a vision of skulls and a vision of dragons, I am going to assume Mel also saw these dwarves having sex. Tyrion and Penny. Why is this important?? Why is it popping up in both of their visions? And not just theirs:

Quote

What do you see in those flames?”
“Dragons,” Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros. He spoke it very well, with hardly a trace of accent. No doubt that was one reason the high priest Benerro had chosen him to bring the faith of R’hllor to Daenerys Targaryen. “Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all.” (Tyrion, ADWD)

Moqorro also sees a dwarf and dragons. In a later Victarion chapter, he tells him he saw Euron as well (sailing on a sea of blood). So we have a similar combination of events. 

Moqorro tells Tyrion he will be "snarling in the midst of all". Interesting. What does he mean? It certainly doesn't sound like Tyrion will be enjoying himself, does it? 

Together, these 4 visions by three independent observers who are literally as far apart as one can get in this world (the Wall, the Arbor and east of Valyria almost to Meereen) predict a grim future for Tyrion. 

[MaesterSam]

21 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Not to disagree with you - far from it - but if that was so, then the building of the Wall preceded rather than followed the Long Night

Not to disagree with this - far from it - but if that is the case, then we already know that the Wall doesn't stop the Others. 

[MaesterSam]

21 hours ago, Black Crow said:

No matter how strong the Targaryen fleet, if it was caught in the way described there would indeed have been massive losses, and far from its crews providing a garrison for Dragonstone, few would have survived. The loss of life would have been massive.

So in other words ... there was a massive offering to the Drowned God on the night Daenerys was born? Interesting. We already know the Storm God was present as well, hence her name, Stormborn. Maybe we should start including the ironborn in our X + Y = ? theories. 

[Ghost+Nymeria4Eva]

On 6/8/2019 at 10:23 PM, Black Crow said:

It is, but in these here parts we often see things differently and long before the ending of the Mummers' version left a lot of people bewildered and disappointed we've been exploring different and more complicated outcomes and viewpoints; including the old heretic joke that it may not be a matter of the dragons saving Westeros from the Others, but of the Others saving Westeros from the dragons.

GRRM has always planned for the Others to be the major evil threat in the books, not the dragons or any of the people. Also, it's highly doubtful given that the WW attack b4 Dany gets her dragons, esp at a time when dragons are gone. We would also have to ask where they were when Aegon showed up. And hints for WW being really bad are really strong, from Old Nan's tales to what wildlings say and all that. GRRM did write a story about a war between dragon riding factions, and an ice dragon coming to save a girl, but I think this is an old draft by now. 

It's still possible that long, long ago (the long night before the Long Night) that a desperate party summoned or made a sort of a devil's bargain with WW to keep dragons away . But it goes awry and creates a far worse threat for the world. Or it's really possible that dragons were made to fight off WW, but the old Valyrians got dragged into a war with Old Ghis and things went downhill from there. 

Currently in the story, some people see dragons as threats, but not all. Just about everyone (Dany included) realizes that they are dangerous. But in the end, the dangerous dragons could end up being saviors of the world. Rather than dragons being bad, I think signs point to humans being the bad guys, given that they destroy each other, other animals, and the environment. The War of the Five Kings is the best example of this. 

On 6/8/2019 at 10:23 PM, Black Crow said:

As long ago as 1993 GRRM labelled the Danaerys the Dragonlord as a threat, and a lot of us see the parvenu Targaryens as a problem, not a solution in the context of a Westerosi history stretching back thousands of years.

Are  you referring to the letter? Dany is identified as a "greater" threat compared to the warring kings. But the "greatest" threat of them all is identified as the Others. GRRM probably planned for the enemies (Dany and the Starks) to band up together to save the world. It would be different in the sense that in other fantasy books, you don't see that kind of dynamic when people save the world from the Big Bad. 

[Ghost+Nymeria4Eva]

3 hours ago, MaesterSam said:

Dwarves appear in both of Aeron's nightmares/visions, first just capering but then in the second vision they are having sex while Euron and (presumably) Cersei watch and laugh. This looks to me like a plausible future scenario, whereby Euron gives Tyrion to Cersei (as opposed to the Sand Snakes in the show) to win her alliance, and Cersei then takes her revenge starting with his complete humiliation. The other dwarf is most likely Penny.

In Mel's vision, it is not specified that the lovers are dwarves, but there are clear similarities in the descriptions and setting (dragons overhead).

The dwarves are more likely to be fAegon and Arianne, who are set to marry each other. (The dwarves are rulers, like what Dany saw in HotU). We can safely presume that fAegon's reign isn't going to be as great as Jon Connington thinks it would be. Alternatively, it could also be Dany and Jon, who are on enemy sides until his real parents are revealed. 

The woman with pale fire on her arms certainly isn't Cersei. She has no power, magical or otherwise, that Euron might want. People havr speculated that this might be Quaithe or possibly Dany (bound by the dragon horn). 

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

We don't have enough information about Essos to know if they have extended or normal seasons, but if their climate is warmer due to being further south, it may not be noticeable enough to be a topic of discussion.

There's no valid reason to believe that the the rules of seasons are different for different parts of the same planet. The climate in the Lands of the Long Summer are warmer, like in south of Westeros. But they do experience winter. Even the Dothraki have a prophesy of winter and the legend of AA comes from Essos anyway. So the Long Night affects the whole world, not just Westeros. The northern part of Westeros may experience it sooner than other areas. 

[Black Crow]

46 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

There's no valid reason to believe that the the rules of seasons are different for different parts of the same planet. The climate in the Lands of the Long Summer are warmer, like in south of Westeros. But they do experience winter. Even the Dothraki have a prophesy of winter and the legend of AA comes from Essos anyway. So the Long Night affects the whole world, not just Westeros. The northern part of Westeros may experience it sooner than other areas. 

Indeed, and I refer to my earlier post quoting GRRM anent Westeros being further north and the Wiki for references to traditions of the Long Night in Essos and beyond

[MaesterSam]

50 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

The dwarves are more likely to be fAegon and Arianne, who are set to marry each other. (The dwarves are rulers, like what Dany saw in HotU). We can safely presume that fAegon's reign isn't going to be as great as Jon Connington thinks it would be. Alternatively, it could also be Dany and Jon, who are on enemy sides until his real parents are revealed. 

You think Dany and Jon are going to caper at Euron's feet for his amusement? That seems unlikely to me. I also don't know why any of these 4 extremely attractive and overall very likable characters would be portrayed as dwarves, "naked and misshapen". It seems like a stretch, when we already have 2 actual dwarves, male and female, one who has been capering all her life and another who has learned recently, and already capered for Daenerys once. He is not too proud to caper if that's what it takes to stay alive. He spent ADWD learning how to be a dwarf and how to caper. There is also a plausible way for these dwarves to end up in Euron's hands in the near future, with Victarion now arrived in Slavers Bay. 

In addition, the dwarves in the HOTU are said to be very unusual, as Dany notices right away. They are smaller than normal, with pointy rat faces. Aeron makes no note of the dwarves being unusual in any way. Also, Moqorro sees Tyrion himself "in the midst of all". 

But, as always, we'll have to wait and hope one day we get another book. I certainly don't claim to "know", I just don't see any reason for the dwarves to be metaphorical when we have two such exact dwarves in the story.

1 hour ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

The woman with pale fire on her arms certainly isn't Cersei. She has no power, magical or otherwise, that Euron might want. People havr speculated that this might be Quaithe or possibly Dany (bound by the dragon horn). 

She has the Lannister army. That's better than nothing. And Euron won't have that many choices. If Dany rejects him, who else is left for him to make his worthy heir that he wants?

[Ghost+Nymeria4Eva]

34 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

You think Dany and Jon are going to caper at Euron's feet for his amusement? That seems unlikely to me. I also don't know why any of these 4 extremely attractive and overall very likable characters would be portrayed as dwarves, "naked and misshapen". It seems like a stretch, when we already have 2 actual dwarves, male and female, one who has been capering all her life and another who has learned recently, and already capered for Daenerys once.

That imagery of Euron laughing at dwarves having sex and eating each other is highly unlikely to refer to any actual dwarves, much less Tyrion and Penny. Tyrion doesn't want to have sex with her and even if he does, he wouldn't hurt her. The dwarfs obviously represent characters that Euron and the woman manipulate, obviously without their knowledge. Euron isn't interested in royal politics, but he loves sowing chaos for the sake of it. So the dwarves are most likely a highborn couple playing politics and making war, not knowing what they are doing is playing right into Euron's hands. That's what I said this might mean Arianne and fAegon, who might end up married and also working against each other. It could be Dany and Jon, but that's a stretch. 

Also, Tyrion doesn't caper for Dany. He's captured and enslaved and is about to be killed by lions when Dany saves his and Penny's lives (without knowing who they are of course). 

39 minutes ago, MaesterSam said:

She has the Lannister army. That's better than nothing. And Euron won't have that many choices. If Dany rejects him, who else is left for him to make his worthy heir that he wants?

Euron is the closest to a dark lord the series gets. He may not have a land army, but he can probably come up with a way to get rid of the Lannisters. He doesn't need to make deals with anyone in the conventional political sense. He can lay siege to Lannisport with his totally evil fleet and the Lannister army could end up being his. 

Euron wants Dany because she has this magic thing going for her. She has dragons. Cersei has a royal title and nothing else. She doesn't even meet the minimal requirements for the mother of a "worthy heir" Euron wants. What Euron wants to be is a "god" and the mundane politics don't concern him. Also, others have pointed out that what Euron truly wants with Dany might be to recreate the ritual that Dany performed at the end of book 1. 

[MaesterSam]

1 hour ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

That imagery of Euron laughing at dwarves having sex and eating each other is highly unlikely to refer to any actual dwarves, much less Tyrion and Penny. Tyrion doesn't want to have sex with her and even if he does, he wouldn't hurt her. The dwarfs obviously represent characters that Euron and the woman manipulate, obviously without their knowledge. Euron isn't interested in royal politics, but he loves sowing chaos for the sake of it. So the dwarves are most likely a highborn couple playing politics and making war, not knowing what they are doing is playing right into Euron's hands. That's what I said this might mean Arianne and fAegon, who might end up married and also working against each other. It could be Dany and Jon, but that's a stretch. 

Also, Tyrion doesn't caper for Dany. He's captured and enslaved and is about to be killed by lions when Dany saves his and Penny's lives (without knowing who they are of course). 

I wasn't implying that Tyrion would want to do this. He would obviously have to be forced into it, which I'm sure Euron could manage.

As for him not capering for Dany, the definition of capering is "to leap or prance about in a playful manner." Tyrion rode a pig and pretended to be a knight, fighting Penny on a dog in order to make people laugh. He not only did this for Dany, but many times while still on the ship. He is clearly willing to caper if the alternative is death.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

On 6/8/2019 at 2:06 PM, Black Crow said:

Feather is referring to discussions on Heresy questioning the orthodoxy that for some unknown reason the Long Night happened. During the Long Night the Others tooled up, but eventually were defeated, whereupon the Wall was built by mortal men to prevent them coming back.

What some of us have discussed is that given that the Wall was actually raised by magic, it may have been the creation of it which caused the Long Night and has upset the seasons, which is one of the reasons some of us in these here parts hold that the fall of the Wall will not be a disaster but the key to sorting this mess

It seems I need to go back and read all the old Heresy threads!

[Melifeather]

14 minutes ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

It seems I need to go back and read all the old Heresy threads!

Lol, good luck with that! It’s a book in itself! You could try Wolfmaid’s guide to Heresy. She organized the earlier ones and tried to list major themes. 

 

[asongofheresy]

I have  question about Daenerys, you know how she is called Stormborn and was supposed to born when a storm wrecked Dragonstone in summer time? This quote is usually used to question her identity, but during my aDWD rereading - favorite book! - I have realized we do have  mention of a storm during the rebellion! Only it's not about Dragonstone and Rhaella but about the Sisters and Ned, at the start of RR Ned tried to go White Harbor from Fingers, during a storm the Fisherman died but daughter made sure they ended up in Sisters. According to Lord Bowell Ned fathered a child with that woman. Since the Lord of Sisterton names that child as Jon the story is disregarded by the fandom, but if there was actually child born/conceived? then they will be Stormborn? Am I going crazy?  

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Jova Snow said:

I have  question about Daenerys, you know how she is called Stormborn and was supposed to born when a storm wrecked Dragonstone in summer time? This quote is usually used to question her identity, but during my aDWD rereading - favorite book! - I have realized we do have  mention of a storm during the rebellion! Only it's not about Dragonstone and Rhaella but about the Sisters and Ned, at the start of RR Ned tried to go White Harbor from Fingers, during a storm the Fisherman died but daughter made sure they ended up in Sisters. According to Lord Bowell Ned fathered a child with that woman. Since the Lord of Sisterton names that child as Jon the story is disregarded by the fandom, but if there was actually child born/conceived? then they will be Stormborn? Am I going crazy?  

No you're not crazy, but it would be too early for Dany who turns 14 early on in A Game of Thrones while Robb and Jon turn 15. The Fisherman's Daughter tale is too early in the Rebellion for the babe to be Dany, but I thought Robert's fleet was destroyed in a storm and that is why he had to rebuild before he could plan is assault on Dragonstone.

I do recall an SSM where GRRM says some of Dany's chapters actually occur prior to A Game of Thrones, but alas I have been unable to locate it. 

[asongofheresy]

3 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

No you're not crazy, but it would be too early for Dany who turns 14 early on in A Game of Thrones while Robb and Jon turn 15. But I thought Robert's fleet was destroyed in a storm and that is why he had to rebuild before he could get to Dragonstone.

 Well Sansa is thirteen but Alayne is fourteen, Daenerys is supposed to be fourteen but is "Daenerys" really fourteen? But yes I do remember Stannis being ordered to rebuild the fleet - so there was a storm after all? 

[Melifeather]

5 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

 Well Sansa is thirteen but Alayne is fourteen, Daenerys is supposed to be fourteen but is "Daenerys" really fourteen? But yes I do remember Stannis being ordered to rebuild the fleet - so there was a storm after all? 

I too have my doubts that Daenerys was really only 14. We do have inconsistencies with dates in the books. I just posted one yesterday in a Tyrion chapter that someone noted this last summer lasted nine years while everyone else said ten. It was a weird detail that made me wonder if GRRM just made a mistake or if it was an intentional clue that has something to do with the time loops.

[Melifeather]

38 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

 Well Sansa is thirteen but Alayne is fourteen, Daenerys is supposed to be fourteen but is "Daenerys" really fourteen? But yes I do remember Stannis being ordered to rebuild the fleet - so there was a storm after all? 

I'm searching for passages to support that there was a storm. Here are a couple that talk about Stannis building Robert a fleet and then taking Dragonstone in his name. It could be that Robert didn't have his own fleet up until this time.

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Prologue

"Surely half a kingdom is better than none," Cressen said, "and if you help the boy avenge his father's murder—"

"Why should I avenge Eddard Stark? The man was nothing to me. Oh, Robert loved him, to be sure. Loved him as a brother, how often did I hear that? I was his brother, not Ned Stark, but you would never have known it by the way he treated me. I held Storm's End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls. Did Robert thank me? No. He thanked Stark, for lifting the siege when we were down to rats and radishes. I built a fleet at Robert's command, took Dragonstone in his name. Did he take my hand and say, Well done, brother, whatever should I do without you? No, he blamed me for letting Willem Darry steal away Viserys and the babe, as if I could have stopped it. I sat on his council for fifteen years, helping Jon Arryn rule his realm while Robert drank and whored, but when Jon died, did my brother name me his Hand? No, he went galloping off to his dear friend Ned Stark, and offered him the honor. And small good it did either of them."

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Prologue

"Your brother has been the Lord of Storm's End these past thirteen years. These lords are his sworn bannermen—"

"His," Stannis broke in, "when by rights they should be mine. I never asked for Dragonstone. I never wanted it. I took it because Robert's enemies were here and he commanded me to root them out. I built his fleet and did his work, dutiful as a younger brother should be to an elder, as Renly should be to me. And what was Robert's thanks? He names me Lord of Dragonstone, and gives Storm's End and its incomes to Renly. Storm's End belonged to House Baratheon for three hundred years; by rights it should have passed to me when Robert took the Iron Throne."

 

Someone up thread wondered how many men in a war galley. I found this in ACOK Davos III:

Quote

And where was King Robert's Hammer? She was the largest war galley in the royal fleet, four hundred oars, the only warship the boy king owned capable of overmatching Fury. By rights she should have formed the heart of any defense.

As far as I can tell, this is the only passage that mentions a storm that smashed ships:

Quote

AGOT - Daenerys I

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.

She did not remember Dragonstone either. They had run again, just before the Usurper's brother set sail with his new-built fleet. By then only Dragonstone itself, the ancient seat of their House, had remained of the Seven Kingdoms that had once been theirs. It would not remain for long. The garrison had been prepared to sell them to the Usurper, but one night Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast.

It doesn't sound like there were many loyalist forces left after the storm, because Dany describes the remaining forces as "the garrison". They must have felt defeated if they were prepared to sell Viserys and Dany to Robert.

There were loyalist fleets after this storm though. For example, Lord Paxter Redwyne's mighty fleet from the Arbor:
 

Quote

The World of Ice and Fire - The Fall of the Dragons: Robert’s Rebellion

The royalist forces were left reeling and scattered by such victories though they did their best to rally. The Kingsguard were dispatched to recover the remnant of Lord Connington's force, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south to take command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands. And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell. Bringing the might of the Reach to bear, the reachlords swept away all resistance and settled in to besiege Storm's End. Shortly afterward, the host was joined by Lord Paxter Redwyne's mighty fleet from the Arbor, completing the siege by land and sea. That siege wore on until the conclusion of the war.

 

 

[SirArthur]

57 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

There were loyalist fleets after this storm though. For example, Lord Paxter Redwyne's mighty fleet from the Arbor:

As I said before, the war wasn't lost after the battle of the Trident. This even confirms that there were 2 full navies operating in the area. They could have easily reinforced King's Landing within the 2 weeks.