Heresy 223 and where we go from here

[Lady Rhodes]

14 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

The thing to remember is that the seasonal control is magical and has nothing to do with the normal rotation of Planetos nor its path around the sun, so it’s quite possible that it’s only occurring in Westeros. The rest of the world may be unaffected..

I understand that, but I think we would be seeing a mass migration from Westeros to Essos if that were true, and we aren’t seeing that. If anything, it is the opposite. The narrow sea voyage isn’t comparable to the Americas to Europe or Africa. It is a much quicker passage - i have seen estimate vary from a week to a month. 

[Black Crow]

GRRM has previously answered this question by pointing out that the top end of Westeros is further north and is therefore affected more, ie; more of Westeros lies within the Arctic Circle: https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2008/07

[Are the seasons irregular only in Westeros or also in the eastern continent?]

The eastern continent (Essos) is further south than Westeros, and feels the North of the great sweep of the eastern sweep of the eastern lands is a huge ocean, the Shivering Sea. Only Westeros extends to the far north.

As for the rest of his world: https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Long_Night

[JNR]

On 6/7/2019 at 1:47 AM, Black Crow said:

"Guiding principle" yes, but even then, as I recall all we got was a rather jazzed-up version of Old Nan's tale which didn't gell with some of the things GRRM said either in text or in SSM.

In some ways... but I think there were rough dates given for various historical events -- "eight thousand years ago," etc -- and those dates did gel with the canonical timeline pretty well.  

If so, they also blatantly contradicted the subsequent idea (presented in a much later season) that the Popsicles predated the Pact.  However, I'd have to look it up to be sure.  It's been a while since I watched the DVD History features.

On 6/7/2019 at 1:47 AM, Black Crow said:

At no point are the three-fingered tree-huggers involved, far less engaged in transforming the sacrifice

This is where the Mummers version gets dangerous

I'd add that Bran's visions from ADWD are not rendered on the show at all.  In this there is a clear recreation of the near-total failure with the book's HOTU visions... which on the show, were so infamously, childishly simple they all but announced Dany would die at the end of the show as far as I was concerned.  Quite a spoiler, coming as it did more than six years ago.

[JNR]

19 hours ago, Matthew. said:

"She had to come up with the setting and characters" and "we bounced ideas off each other" is not evasion, it's a straightforward description of process.

That GRRM and the prequel show-runner were bouncing ideas of various kinds, on various subjects, is not much use IMO.   Of course they were; they'd have to do that.

What we're interested in doing is solving book mysteries, and so, toward that end, sometimes we consider the extent to which the solutions provided by HBO make any kind of sense.  

So far, they haven't.  They haven't even been consistent within the world of the show, never mind the world of the books too.   D&D did just as poor a job of logical continuity with their puzzles as they did with teleporting Varys, annulling a marriage that has produced children, and on and on.

It appears to me when the prequel show is out, it is going to cheerfully contradict GOT's bullshit wherever it pleases (possibly creating its own, special bullshit).   And we are really going to be looking at three worlds at that point: Book World, GOT World, and Prequel World.

19 hours ago, Matthew. said:

The 1993 letter, nearly every interview that GRRM has ever given about his writing process, and the basic pace at which he has released books should make this uncontroversial--if a plot point is not published, then it's not final, and open to gardening

Depends on what you call "gardening."  GRRM came up with many things by the time he wrote AGOT that he's known all along he would do. 

The details involved are subject to implementation; he hasn't always known how sentences would be phrased, for instance.  But the event itself is non-negotiable.  An obvious example:

Quote

There is this figure which I always knew that they will die, from the moment of their introduction they were doomed to die. But I did not know how she would die.

This is typical of his process.   He always had a good idea where he's going, but the route getting there has meandered a bit -- in fact, that's the same analogy he himself has used countless times.

19 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I don't know what precisely you're arguing against here. I didn't say that's the "canon chronology," I said it's Show World chronology

Yes, that's my point.  It is not Show World chronology, because Show World contradicted itself on that (surprise, surprise).

The early seasons featured a chronology that was much closer to the canon and never involved Popsicles or the Long Night happening before the Pact.

[Brad Stark]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

I disagree. I think the seasons and the repeated events are clearly inspired of two outside works: the Marvel comics Dr Strange storyline with his time-controlling Eye of Agamotto, and Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time series. Both works are centered around controlling and repeating time to save mankind. GRRMs world is also utilizing a type of seasonal and repeated time control to contain a growing threat.

The only known threat is the white walkers and wights soon to be invading Westeros. Whatever happened in Essos and to the far east of Asshai isn't impacting the current story. Even the Doom is over and done - it's in the past. The present story is centered on the events of Westeros. Sure, you could look for clues as to what happened in the past in Essos, but the seasonal control is only mentioned as occurring in Westeros. We never hear comments from characters in Essos about how long the current summer has lasted or that winter is coming. Braavos is always rainy and the Dothraki sea is always summer.

Going by canon, whatever happened in Ashai long ago to throw off the seasons might never be explained or more relevant than has been.   However GRRM has said that the reason the seasons are off will be explained at the end.   So not only will it be revealed, it is almost certainly relevant to the ending. 

[JNR]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

n some ways... but I think there were rough dates given for various historical events -- "eight thousand years ago," etc -- and those dates did gel with the canonical timeline pretty well.  

If so, they also blatantly contradicted the subsequent idea (presented in a much later season) that the Popsicles predated the Pact.

Yes, the season one history (DVD extras) section is quite clear:

Quote

Twelve thousand years ago, the First Men came from the eastern continent, crossing a land-bridge called the Arm of Dorne.

Quote

For it was in the North, some 8,000 years ago, that the First Men drove back the White Walkers

These numbers are straight out of the books, too.  I wasn't surprised to see them on the show at all, at that time, when it seemed like the show was going to be a reasonable translation of ASOIAF.

But in season six, by which time it was clear the show had become a turd buffet, they came up with their kooky origin of white walkers... so they had to do a retcon of the history they had already established way back in season one (see above). 

This violated not only the canon, but the show itself, and in seasons seven and eight, crapping on logical continuity became the rule, not the exception... thus inventing the new Hollywood genre of the hour-length inadvertent sitcom.

[Ghost+Nymeria4Eva]

18 hours ago, Matthew. said:

This is something I've pondered as well, since Othor and Jafer are able to pass through the Wall without it invalidating their magic. Both Mormont and Jon Snow are present, so one prospect is that they were able to pass the wards because they were 'granted' passage by the LC, and an alternative prospect would be that they were granted passage by a Stark, a descendant of Bran the Builder.

I know right! I thought so after I read the bit about Alyssanne's dragon. What if the importance of Jon's Targ heritage is that he can allow dragons to finally fly over the Wall? His Stark blood is more prominent, but being a half Targ should make the dragons like him. And if he takes up with Dany, all the better. I mean, any LC can give the rider permission to fly over. But what if the dragon requires its own permission, which requires an LC with a dragon affinity? This could be a game changer for the warm bloods, given that it would allow them to bring fire and blood to the WW, while the enemy has no way to breach the Wall ( at least, not early on). The last LC who could do that I think would have been Bloodraven, but back then the dragons weren't there. I think the WW breach the Wall somehow and go down south as far as the Trident at least. But to win, the dragons would have to travel all the way up north to the Heart of Winter. To do that. Jon the LC might be key. 

This is just speculation on my part of course.

[Black Crow]

47 minutes ago, Ghost+Nymeria4Eva said:

I know right! I thought so after I read the bit about Alyssanne's dragon. What if the importance of Jon's Targ heritage is that he can allow dragons to finally fly over the Wall? His Stark blood is more prominent, but being a half Targ should make the dragons like him. And if he takes up with Dany, all the better. I mean, any LC can give the rider permission to fly over. But what if the dragon requires its own permission, which requires an LC with a dragon affinity? This could be a game changer for the warm bloods, given that it would allow them to bring fire and blood to the WW, while the enemy has no way to breach the Wall ( at least, not early on). The last LC who could do that I think would have been Bloodraven, but back then the dragons weren't there. I think the WW breach the Wall somehow and go down south as far as the Trident at least. But to win, the dragons would have to travel all the way up north to the Heart of Winter. To do that. Jon the LC might be key. 

This is just speculation on my part of course.

It is, but in these here parts we often see things differently and long before the ending of the Mummers' version left a lot of people bewildered and disappointed we've been exploring different and more complicated outcomes and viewpoints; including the old heretic joke that it may not be a matter of the dragons saving Westeros from the Others, but of the Others saving Westeros from the dragons. As long ago as 1993 GRRM labelled the Danaerys the Dragonlord as a threat, and a lot of us see the parvenu Targaryens as a problem, not a solution in the context of a Westerosi history stretching back thousands of years.

 

[alienarea]

The longer the tv show has finished the more frustrated I get with GRRMs inability to move the story forward.

In my opinion he piles beginnings on top of beginnings and his gardening approach got overtaken Wildweed (btw, great album by Jeffrey Lee Pierce).

We don't have a clue who/what the White Walkers are, and the more we speculate I'm inclined to believe GRRM doesn't know either, including not knowing how to end their threat. A deus ex machina explanation in the last (?) book will not work. In LOTR it was known from the beginning what needed to be done to defeat Sauron.

Maybe GRRM can only write short stories.

[SirArthur]

A while ago I talked about the size of the Targaryen fleet at Dragonstone (if it existed at all)and assumed it with 5000 man. This is what I have found out so far:

1. there was a fleet according to the myths Dany was told 

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.

2. about fleet sizes:

"In the Free Cities, there are ships by the thousand," Dany told him, as she had told him before. "Wooden horses with a hundred legs, that fly across the sea on wings full of wind." A Game of Thrones - Daenerys VI

He sang of Jonquil and Florian, of Prince Aemon the Dragonknight and his love for his brother's queen, of Nymeria's ten thousand ships.  - A Clash of Kings - Sansa VI

Lord Gylbert began to speak. He told of a wondrous land beyond the Sunset Sea, a land without winter or want, where death had no dominion. "Make me your king, and I shall lead you there," he cried. "We will build ten thousand ships as Nymeria once did and take sail with all our people to the land beyond the sunset. There every man shall be a king and every wife a queen." A Feast for Crows - The Drowned Man

"A thousand ships?" Ser Harys Swyft was wheezing. "Surely not. No lord commands a thousand ships." A Feast for Crows - Cersei VII

"Can we walk across the waves, ser?" asked Lysono Maar. "I tell you again, we cannot reach the silver queen by sea. I slipped into Volantis myself, posing as a trader, to learn how many ships might be available to us. The harbor teems with galleys, cogs, and carracks of every sort and size, yet even so I soon found myself consorting with smugglers and pirates. We have ten thousand men in the company, as I am sure Lord Connington remembers from his years of service with us. Five hundred knights, each with three horses. Five hundred squires, with one mount apiece. And elephants, we must not forget the elephants. A pirate ship will not suffice. We would need a pirate fleet … and even if we found one, the word has come back from Slaver's Bay that Meereen has been closed off by blockade." A Dance with Dragons - The Lost Lord

Out on the river, Bold Wind unshipped her oars and glided downstream in the wake of Seaswift. Last came King Robert's Hammer, the might of the royal fleet. . . or at least that portion that had not fled to Dragonstone last year with Stannis. Tyrion had chosen the ships with care, avoiding any whose captains might be of doubtful loyalty, according to Varys . . . but as Varys himself was of doubtful loyalty, a certain amount of apprehension remained. I rely too much on Varys, he reflected. I need my own informers. Not that I'd trust them either. Trust would get you killed. A Clash of Kings - Tyrion IX

With four times as many ships as the boy king, Ser Imry saw no need for caution or deceptive tactics. He had organized the fleet into ten lines of battle, each of twenty ships. The first two lines would sweep up the river to engage and destroy Joffrey's little fleet, or "the boy's toys" as Ser Imry dubbed them, to the mirth of his lordly captains. Those that followed would land companies of archers and spearmen beneath the city walls, and only then join the fight on the river. The smaller, slower ships to the rear would ferry over the main part of Stannis's host from the south bank, protected by Salladhor Saan and his Lyseni, who would stand out in the bay in case the Lannisters had other ships hidden up along the coast, poised to sweep down on their rear. A Clash of Kings - Davos III

3. about men to ship ratios

"How would the queen suggest they accomplish that, without sufficient ships?" asked Ser Loras. "Willas and Garlan can raise ten thousand men within a fortnight and twice that in a moon's turn, but they cannot walk on water, Your Grace." A Feast for Crows - Cersei VII (regarding the thousand ships of the Iron Fleet)

 

My observations:

- the Arbor has the largest "Lordling fleet"

- no Lord has a thousand ships, that may include "Lord" Euron. The quote really works in both ways, arguing against his ship size and against a possible counter.

- a general ship to men ratio for all types of ships may be 100

- Even the relative "small" invasion of Connington needs a (pirate) fleet to support.

- A large part of the royal fleet fled to Stannis, Stannis had 200 large combat ships and a lot of smaller "cargo" ships

- a thousand ships is a possibility for rich city states though. (And I count Oldtown towards it)

My conclusions:

- The Baratheon royal fleet is only 15 years old, that is not the lifespan of a wooden warship. The Targaryen fleet can include ships from a much larger timespan

- there is no knowledge about the size of a royal fleet, it is clear that it could "in theory" have a thousand ships, a more grounded calculation may include 100 warships and 400 other ships from the crownlands. 

- I tend to go the Feather way of the mirror for reasons of simplicity and conclude that Stannis fleet is the fleet size of the royal fleet, which included 4600 transported infantry. 

- Overall I still think my guess of 5000 sailors is very possible and very grounded. If I just assume 100 warships in the royal fleet (which is the size of the Baratheon royal fleet) and downsize the sailors to 100 per ships (they are larger warships though, the King Robert's hammer has 400 oars), I would come to 10.000 men. 

 

So my conclusion, that a storm that grounded the royal fleet, would have left a sizeable defence force at Dragonstone, still stands. We know that the attack:defence ratio for castles is 4:1 - 6:1. So Stannis should need at least 20k men upwards (for a larger army) to take a defended Dragonstone.

So either there was never a fleet at Dragonstone and the royal fleet vanished or something else must have happened. Even if everyone just gave up, the men would still be stranded on Dragonstone.

[Matthew.]

4 hours ago, JNR said:

This is typical of his process.   He always had a good idea where he's going, but the route getting there has meandered a bit -- in fact, that's the same analogy he himself has used countless times.

Yes, but the ways in which the route meanders, grows, and changes cannot be disconnected from their impact on the destination. For example, the show tried to force a "Villain Dany" destination, but they did it without Young Griff along the road--even if they were competent writers, changing the road but trying to keep the destination seems like a flawed idea.

For at least some of GRRM's destinations, I would imagine they'll have to change once it comes time to actually write them, even if he hopes he won't have to change them--and I get the impression that he isn't always realistic on that front (eg, the TWOW twist that he thought wouldn't be that hard to introduce). 

In elaborating on the reasoning for the proposed five year gap, GRRM has explained that his original plan was to have months pass between AGOT chapters, so characters like Arya and Bran would be aging up, but that didn't really work, so the five year gap was supposed to fix that, but he couldn't make the five year gap work either.

So now he's stuck with a narrative that has moved at a snail's pace, and certain important characters that are nowhere near the adulthood he'd originally intended for them to be approaching (or passing) as the narrative moves into its final arc--will their destinations still work? Maybe, maybe not, and I suspect that GRRM doesn't actually worry about that sort of stuff too much until it comes time to actually write the destination. He works stuff out on the page.

[Matthew.]

7 hours ago, JNR said:

Yes, that's my point.  It is not Show World chronology, because Show World contradicted itself on that (surprise, surprise).

The early seasons featured a chronology that was much closer to the canon and never involved Popsicles or the Long Night happening before the Pact.

I don't agree with the chronology, but I don't think it's contradicting itself either--Histories and Lore is not intended as objective fact, but characters narrating history as they know it; by Show World Logic, stuff Catelyn and Bran are narrating in S1 is unreliable oral history, while Max von Sydow's information is to be seen as more reliable.

They're not placing the LN before the Pact--the thing specifically being contradicted is the notion that the LN was the first time that men encountered the Others; the Pact and LN are still meant to occur on the same time table (eg, 10,000 and 8,000 years ago, respectively), with the context for the LN being that the CotF no longer have control over their creation. The NK being used to defend the deep woods is to be seen as a separate, distinct event, thousands of years before the LN.

Put another way, their premise is "Old Nan doesn't know the whole story;" I don't think that's a good storytelling approach, but I also don't think it inherently violates Show World continuity, particularly if the Others were initially created to be a stealthy sentinel of the deep woods that doesn't leave surviving eyewitnesses, rather than an apocalyptic threat leading hosts of the slain.

Even GRRM is guilty of having his characters be selectively ignorant about important details (eg, the Watch not knowing about obsidian killing WWs, even though its recorded in their annals) for the sake of hiding reveals, and he's also treating the timetable established by the oral history as dubious:

https://ew.com/author-interviews/2018/11/19/george-rr-martin-interview/

Quote

This book takes place hundreds of years ago and Westeros seems pretty different than in Thrones. I wonder, since HBO’s prequel pilot takes place 10,000 years before Game of Thrones, will that world even be recognizable to fans as Westeros since there’s such a huge time jump?

“10,000 years” is mentioned in the novels. But you also have places where maesters say, “No, no, it wasn’t 10,000, it was 5,000.” Again, I’m trying to reflect real-life things that a lot of high fantasy doesn’t reflect. In the Bible, it has people living for hundreds of years and then people added up how long each lived and used that to figure out when events took place. Really? I don’t think so. Now we’re getting more realistic dating now from carbon dating and archeology. But Westeros doesn’t have that. They’re still in the stage of “my grandfather told me and his grandfather told him.” So I think it’s closer to 5,000 years.

 

[Brad Stark]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

A while ago I talked about the size of the Targaryen fleet at Dragonstone (if it existed at all)and assumed it with 5000 man. This is what I have found out so far:

1. there was a fleet according to the myths Dany was told 

She had been born on Dragonstone nine moons after their flight, while a raging summer storm threatened to rip the island fastness apart. They said that storm was terrible. The Targaryen fleet was smashed while it lay at anchor, and huge stone blocks were ripped from the parapets and sent hurtling into the wild waters of the narrow sea. Her mother had died birthing her, and for that her brother Viserys had never forgiven her.

2. about fleet sizes:

"In the Free Cities, there are ships by the thousand," Dany told him, as she had told him before. "Wooden horses with a hundred legs, that fly across the sea on wings full of wind." A Game of Thrones - Daenerys VI

He sang of Jonquil and Florian, of Prince Aemon the Dragonknight and his love for his brother's queen, of Nymeria's ten thousand ships.  - A Clash of Kings - Sansa VI

Lord Gylbert began to speak. He told of a wondrous land beyond the Sunset Sea, a land without winter or want, where death had no dominion. "Make me your king, and I shall lead you there," he cried. "We will build ten thousand ships as Nymeria once did and take sail with all our people to the land beyond the sunset. There every man shall be a king and every wife a queen." A Feast for Crows - The Drowned Man

"A thousand ships?" Ser Harys Swyft was wheezing. "Surely not. No lord commands a thousand ships." A Feast for Crows - Cersei VII

"Can we walk across the waves, ser?" asked Lysono Maar. "I tell you again, we cannot reach the silver queen by sea. I slipped into Volantis myself, posing as a trader, to learn how many ships might be available to us. The harbor teems with galleys, cogs, and carracks of every sort and size, yet even so I soon found myself consorting with smugglers and pirates. We have ten thousand men in the company, as I am sure Lord Connington remembers from his years of service with us. Five hundred knights, each with three horses. Five hundred squires, with one mount apiece. And elephants, we must not forget the elephants. A pirate ship will not suffice. We would need a pirate fleet … and even if we found one, the word has come back from Slaver's Bay that Meereen has been closed off by blockade." A Dance with Dragons - The Lost Lord

Out on the river, Bold Wind unshipped her oars and glided downstream in the wake of Seaswift. Last came King Robert's Hammer, the might of the royal fleet. . . or at least that portion that had not fled to Dragonstone last year with Stannis. Tyrion had chosen the ships with care, avoiding any whose captains might be of doubtful loyalty, according to Varys . . . but as Varys himself was of doubtful loyalty, a certain amount of apprehension remained. I rely too much on Varys, he reflected. I need my own informers. Not that I'd trust them either. Trust would get you killed. A Clash of Kings - Tyrion IX

With four times as many ships as the boy king, Ser Imry saw no need for caution or deceptive tactics. He had organized the fleet into ten lines of battle, each of twenty ships. The first two lines would sweep up the river to engage and destroy Joffrey's little fleet, or "the boy's toys" as Ser Imry dubbed them, to the mirth of his lordly captains. Those that followed would land companies of archers and spearmen beneath the city walls, and only then join the fight on the river. The smaller, slower ships to the rear would ferry over the main part of Stannis's host from the south bank, protected by Salladhor Saan and his Lyseni, who would stand out in the bay in case the Lannisters had other ships hidden up along the coast, poised to sweep down on their rear. A Clash of Kings - Davos III

3. about men to ship ratios

"How would the queen suggest they accomplish that, without sufficient ships?" asked Ser Loras. "Willas and Garlan can raise ten thousand men within a fortnight and twice that in a moon's turn, but they cannot walk on water, Your Grace." A Feast for Crows - Cersei VII (regarding the thousand ships of the Iron Fleet)

 

My observations:

- the Arbor has the largest "Lordling fleet"

- no Lord has a thousand ships, that may include "Lord" Euron. The quote really works in both ways, arguing against his ship size and against a possible counter.

- a general ship to men ratio for all types of ships may be 100

- Even the relative "small" invasion of Connington needs a (pirate) fleet to support.

- A large part of the royal fleet fled to Stannis, Stannis had 200 large combat ships and a lot of smaller "cargo" ships

- a thousand ships is a possibility for rich city states though. (And I count Oldtown towards it)

My conclusions:

- The Baratheon royal fleet is only 15 years old, that is not the lifespan of a wooden warship. The Targaryen fleet can include ships from a much larger timespan

- there is no knowledge about the size of a royal fleet, it is clear that it could "in theory" have a thousand ships, a more grounded calculation may include 100 warships and 400 other ships from the crownlands. 

- I tend to go the Feather way of the mirror for reasons of simplicity and conclude that Stannis fleet is the fleet size of the royal fleet, which included 4600 transported infantry. 

- Overall I still think my guess of 5000 sailors is very possible and very grounded. If I just assume 100 warships in the royal fleet (which is the size of the Baratheon royal fleet) and downsize the sailors to 100 per ships (they are larger warships though, the King Robert's hammer has 400 oars), I would come to 10.000 men. 

 

So my conclusion, that a storm that grounded the royal fleet, would have left a sizeable defence force at Dragonstone, still stands. We know that the attack:defence ratio for castles is 4:1 - 6:1. So Stannis should need at least 20k men upwards (for a larger army) to take a defended Dragonstone.

So either there was never a fleet at Dragonstone and the royal fleet vanished or something else must have happened. Even if everyone just gave up, the men would still be stranded on Dragonstone.

The largest wooden ships in our world held about a thousand sailors, and could carry armies of many more.   One person boats (no one would call them ships) were rare, but 2 person boats were common, as were boats with 3-12 people. 

My point is, the size of the navy depends more on the types of boats than the number of them.  The largest Navy in our world today has less than 500 ships. 

 

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I understand that, but I think we would be seeing a mass migration from Westeros to Essos if that were true, and we aren’t seeing that. If anything, it is the opposite. The narrow sea voyage isn’t comparable to the Americas to Europe or Africa. It is a much quicker passage - i have seen estimate vary from a week to a month. 

Not if everyone thinks extended seasons are normal. I’m assuming the seasons went all wonky when the Wall was built - 8000 years of weird seasons that nobody thinks that much about, because it’s just the way it is.

[Black Crow]

Not to disagree with you - far from it - but if that was so, then the building of the Wall preceded rather than followed the Long Night

[Black Crow]

23 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

The largest wooden ships in our world held about a thousand sailors, and could carry armies of many more.   One person boats (no one would call them ships) were rare, but 2 person boats were common, as were boats with 3-12 people. 

My point is, the size of the navy depends more on the types of boats than the number of them.  The largest Navy in our world today has less than 500 ships. 

 

Ah, here's where it gets complicated, while the largest wooden ships in our world could carry hundreds of men on three decks or more, comparatively few men were needed to sail them. Most of the crew were required to man the guns so conspicuously lacking from our world.

Martin's fleets on the other hand appear to be made up of Mediterranean style warships, carrying sails but chiefly relying on oarsmen, with proportionately few soldiers to fight the ship. I'll spare you a lecture on ship design but essentially they are fast and warlike, but fragile - and especially in a blow. No matter how strong the Targaryen fleet, if it was caught in the way described there would indeed have been massive losses, and far from its crews providing a garrison for Dragonstone, few would have survived. The loss of life would have been massive.

[Lord Aegon The Compromiser]

15 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Not to disagree with you - far from it - but if that was so, then the building of the Wall preceded rather than followed the Long Night

So what is the chronology then? 

[SirArthur]

30 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I'll spare you a lecture on ship design but essentially they are fast and warlike, but fragile - and especially in a blow. No matter how strong the Targaryen fleet, if it was caught in the way described there would indeed have been massive losses, and far from its crews providing a garrison for Dragonstone, few would have survived. The loss of life would have been massive.

To which I reply the ships were anchored and smashed against the coast. This may be terrible on the high sea or to an incoming ship capsizing on the Cornwall coast (let's stay in England). But anchored implies the crew has a high chance to be on land.

[Black Crow]

 

28 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

To which I reply the ships were anchored and smashed against the coast. This may be terrible on the high sea or to an incoming ship capsizing on the Cornwall coast (let's stay in England). But anchored implies the crew has a high chance to be on land.

Its possible some were ashore, but a"fleet" is more than just wooden walls and unless the text actually says that large numbers of sailors were ashore [which it doesn't] the default assumption has to be that ships and sailors were both destroyed

[Lady Rhodes]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Not if everyone thinks extended seasons are normal. I’m assuming the seasons went all wonky when the Wall was built - 8000 years of weird seasons that nobody thinks that much about, because it’s just the way it is.

But that doesn’t account for trade. Jon negotiates a loan from the iron bank in order to do trade during winter, all the merchants from Pentod, Lys, Myr, Tyrosh are going to come over and say “man, you guys are having a long winter!” Under your assumptions, traders and merchants from Essos wouldn’t think it strange that Westeros has strange seasons and Westerosi would wonder why these traders find their seasons odd. There would have to be knowledge of supply and demand for shipping....I am doubtful of the claim that they just didn’t know the other continent had different seasonal variances. I think it’s mucch more likely that they have a different climate but still experience seasonal

changes