US Politics: Reaching the Tipping Point

[Jace, Extat]

17 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Disapproval doesn't mean won't vote for him. At the end of the day, most Republicans will come home to roost.

It's spelled 'all'.

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

Democrats do have certain factors playing in their favor. They hope Trump’s low approval rating could ride some of their candidates to victory. After all, Trump is polling on net at -13 in Colorado, -15 in Maine, and -7 in Arizona — the places where Democrats have their best shots — according to Morning Consult. Even in reddish states like Iowa, the president’s trade war with China could make Sen. Joni Ernst, who is in her first reelection race in the state, vulnerable. Even historically red states like Kansas, where there is an open Senate seat, could give Democrats hope. After all, distaste for Trump-like Republicans landed a Democrat in the Kansas governor’s office last year.

But the path is tenuous. To retake the majority, Democrats would likely have to:

1) Keep Sen. Doug Jones’s seat in deep-red Alabama. (Trump has a +27 approval rating there.)

2) Win Arizona and Colorado — and they could, since there are already strong candidates declared or interested in running.

3) Turn out an extremely enthusiastic Democratic base and put tough states — Maine, Georgia, Texas, Montana, and Iowa — within reach. Democrats, by the way, still need to recruit “top tier” candidates in all of these states.

4) Take advantage of divisive Republican primaries in Kansas and North Carolina, where Trump has anemic approval ratings. But again, they need solid candidates to compete.

 

Democrats’ extremely uphill battle to retake the Senate majority in 2020, explained
Senate Democrats are technically on offense in 2020, but they’re still dealing with a very tough map.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/5/18306339/senate-democrats-2020-election-map

[maarsen]

6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Honestly I’ve had bad luck with food South of the border. Mexico was really hit or miss outside of the tourist spots, Caribbean food just didn’t agree with me and food in Argentina is tasteless outside of the steaks and chorizo sausages. It was so funny when I made host family spicy fajitas. It was like they had never had spices before.

But regardless, food would be the last thing that would stop me from visiting Cuba. It really is a shame that the government is reversing course.

Come to Canada, and book a trip to Cuba. There are flights every day.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

He would have fought if it was the Nazis though, definitely.

 

Senator Tammy Duckworth Says Trump Has A ‘Yellow Streak Down His Back’
The military veteran called out the president for what he said to Piers Morgan about not serving in the Vietnam War.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/tammy-duckworth-donald-trump-vietnam-war_n_5cf816c0e4b0e63eda94bb3d

 

The fact that trump couldn't answer in a way that respected the people who fought, were wounded and died in a war that should never have happened, and express a the same time that it was an ill conceived and immoral venture from start to finish so he would never have volunteered because of it, is quite telling. I do wonder if there is any record of Trump voicing an opinion (for or against) on the war at the time. Was he for it until he was against it?

[Wethers]

1 hour ago, Triskele said:

More stuff to make leftist dream of Texas.  

 

Over at TPM Marshall talks about a new poll showing Trump getting owned badly in Michigan and says that Pennsylvania looks bad for Trump too but Wisconsin perhaps less so.  I believe that if every other state stays the same as 2016 but for these three and Michigan and Pennsylvania flip back Dem but Wisconsin stays Trump then Trump still wins.  Wouldn't that be something.  

That scenario you laid out is one that I've thought about as well - repeat of 2016 except Dems win Pennsylvania and Michigan, but can't flip Wisconsin or Florida or any others - so Trump wins 270-268.  It's what makes me think, sadly, that Trump has a great chance of getting re-elected even without shenanigans.  Dems really have to win Pennsylvania, Michigan AND Wisconsin.

Aside:  what if your scenario unfolds, but Dems also pick up the lone elector in NE-2 (or the one they lost in Maine)?  269-269

Of course, besides PA, WI, MI, Dems should compete hard in other close blue (MN, NV, NH) and close red (FL, AZ, NC, IA) states.  Really they should compete in all 50 states, especially because the race is not just for President.  But frankly if Texas goes blue in 2020 (extremely unlikely), then it won't matter for the Presidential race - the Dem candidate will already have won it based on other states.

Basically, the chances of Texas being the "tipping point" state (shout out to thread title) in the 2020 Presidential election are vanishingly small.  PA, MI and WI are probably the tipping point states, with an outside chance of the other close states I outlined being the tipping point.  Obviously Florida swinging blue would be huge, but it probably won't happen without some of the other close states also going blue and making it moot.

The key significance of Texas getting bluer would be the possibility of Dems eventually picking up more house seats and maybe (probably not in 2020) even a Senate seat someday.  Maybe state legislature gains too.  Still, I'll believe it when I see it.

[The Anti-Targ]

While the presidential predicters normally look at the national economy for MI, WI and PA it might be worth looking at how those state economies are doing and especially the blue collar jobs. Have the jobs Trump promised materialised / been retained and have those state's economies grown? If the answer is yes, then I can see all those states sticking with Trump. If you are relying on GHG emitting industries for your livelihood then you will probably vote Republican regardless of whether you've been a lifelong union member Democrat. There aren't too many people willing to risk spending time on welfare and struggling to pay the bill because global warming policies might put you out of a job. Not enough people are willing to make short term personal sacrifices for long term benefits. That is not what capitalism is all about. Indeed capitalism is really almost exactly the opposite.

 

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, Triskele said:

More stuff to make leftist dream of Texas.  

ETA:  At the moment I really do wish that Beto was running for Senate in Texas again.  I think that there'd be a prayer of a win, and he's probably not going to be the national nominee.  And even if he didn't win I think it would force the GOP to put more effort into defending Texas.  

Over at TPM Marshall talks about a new poll showing Trump getting owned badly in Michigan and says that Pennsylvania looks bad for Trump too but Wisconsin perhaps less so.  I believe that if every other state stays the same as 2016 but for these three and Michigan and Pennsylvania flip back Dem but Wisconsin stays Trump then Trump still wins.  Wouldn't that be something.  

Iowa is even worse for him than wisconsin

[lokisnow]

Yes

[Maithanet]

I haven't seen much to indicate that Iowa would be an easier pickup than Wisconsin.  Wisconsin was much more favorable in 2016 Presidential and 2018 Governor's races. 

I know I've said this before, but the tipping point states are (in order of most to least likely) WI, FL, PA, MI, AZ, NC, NH, IA.  Even the last three are real stretches, those first five are the big ones. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 hours ago, maarsen said:

Come to Canada, and book a trip to Cuba. There are flights every day.

I believe that’s illegal, or at the very least would cause a ton of problems at customs when I’d reenter the U.S.

[lokisnow]

I am so delighted I am not the only one.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-sac-skelton-california-legislature-disapproval-rating-20190606-story.html

californias do nothing coward legislature, a democratic supermajority, has a lower approval rating in California than president trump.

this garbage legislature full of horrible humans, none of which deserve reeelection, have never met a crisis they couldn’t make worse with inaction or lately, with vanity plates. True senator Portantino suggested a new fee on vanity plates to solve the housing crisis after They killed or destroyed via amendment all the bills addressing the housing crisis. It has certainly been a victory for lobbyists who have succeeded in making the crisis worse with their total control of the legislature, but things are bad and getting worse because of these incompetent buffoons.

and where is Ghost Gavin the nations worst governor? He’s nowhere to be seen, he wouldn’t want to do anything that might affect the 2024 presidential run he’s entitled to!

[Which Tyler]

I see Donald has demonstrated a deep and detailed understanding of the issues surrounding a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Lolz, of course he hasn't, he even referred to that border as being a wall.

[Varysblackfyre321]

13 hours ago, Triskele said:

More stuff to make leftist dream of Texas.  

ETA:  At the moment I really do wish that Beto was running for Senate in Texas again.  I think that there'd be a prayer of a win, and he's probably not going to be the national nominee.  And even if he didn't win I think it would force the GOP to put more effort into defending Texas.  

Over at TPM Marshall talks about a new poll showing Trump getting owned badly in Michigan and says that Pennsylvania looks bad for Trump too but Wisconsin perhaps less so.  I believe that if every other state stays the same as 2016 but for these three and Michigan and Pennsylvania flip back Dem but Wisconsin stays Trump then Trump still wins.  Wouldn't that be something.  

Yeah, he also was performed badly in the polls for these states in 2016: 

https://theweek.com/articles-amp/845453/why-dont-believe-polls-showing-trump-behind-midwestern-states

I would like it if it was a given Trump would totes lose in 2020. But, I think this level of confidence did in fact help him secure his victory in 2016. 

16 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Disapproval doesn't mean won't vote for him. At the end of the day, most Republicans will come home to roost.

Agreed. Democrats should be mindful in celebrating too early. Such things could lead to a complacency that could bite them in the ass.

[Maithanet]

11 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah, he also was performed badly in the polls for these states in 2016: 

https://theweek.com/articles-amp/845453/why-dont-believe-polls-showing-trump-behind-midwestern-states

I would like it if it was a given Trump would totes lose in 2020. But, I think this level of confidence did in fact help him secure his victory in 2016.

I think there is a healthy medium between those two positions.  We definitely should remember that in mid-2015, Clinton was polling ahead of Trump by 6-10 points, with a few outlier polls looking even better.  That edge 18 months before voting occurred did not end up mattering much.

But at the same time, Trump did win the Presidency very narrowly and since then he has done VERY little to expand his support beyond his initial base.  So while it is safe to assume that the vast majority of Trump voters will vote for him again, that alone probably isn't enough.  2020 will see demographic changes since 2016, fewer third party voters, and (hopefully) increased Democratic enthusiasm for their candidate.  All of those things were the story in 2018, and led to a Democratic Wave.  They should not be ignored either. 

[Jace, Extat]

10 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

Agreed. Democrats should be mindful in celebrating too early. Such things could lead to a complacency that could bite them in the ass.

Agreed agreed. 

You'd think the goofy fucks would have learned. I can't wait to see what the new FBI director releases in October because he knew Mr. Trump was supposed to lose.

[Mexal]

14 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah, he also was performed badly in the polls for these states in 2016: 

https://theweek.com/articles-amp/845453/why-dont-believe-polls-showing-trump-behind-midwestern-states

I would like it if it was a given Trump would totes lose in 2020. But, I think this level of confidence did in fact help him secure his victory in 2016. 

Agreed. Democrats should be mindful in celebrating too early. Such things could lead to a complacency that could bite them in the ass.

I don't think any Democrats are celebrating. They're very aware of what happened in 2016 which is why they're being passive fucks.

[maarsen]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I believe that’s illegal, or at the very least would cause a ton of problems at customs when I’d reenter the U.S.

Only if you get you get your passport stamped in Cuba. I have met Americans who did travel through Canada to visit Cuba.

[DMC]

14 hours ago, Triskele said:

Over at TPM Marshall talks about a new poll showing Trump getting owned badly in Michigan and says that Pennsylvania looks bad for Trump too but Wisconsin perhaps less so. 

I don't see any reason to be more worried about WI than the other two, and Marshall doesn't provide any other than he's friends with the new state party chair.  Walker was close in 2018?  Yeah, he was a two-term incumbent who won by 6-7 in his past three elections (counting the recall).  Conversely, Tammy Baldwin doubled her margin from 2012.

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

know I've said this before, but the tipping point states are (in order of most to least likely) WI, FL, PA, MI, AZ, NC, NH, IA.  Even the last three are real stretches, those first five are the big ones. 

I think MI, PA, WI are all clearly tied for first - I'm getting pretty cynical about Florida.   In fact I'd say AZ and NC have just as much of a chance as FL - especially because they'll have competitive Senate elections.  NH shouldn't even be on the list.

33 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah, he also was performed badly in the polls for these states in 2016: 

What Maith and Mexal said, but also it's time to start getting this through people's heads:  one's polling numbers as an incumbent are fundamentally different than polling as a challenger.

2 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Only if you get you get your passport stamped in Cuba. I have met Americans who did travel through Canada to visit Cuba.

I've met many that traveled via Mexico, it's quicker.  Regardless I wouldn't worry about it.

[Ormond]

18 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Only if you get you get your passport stamped in Cuba. I have met Americans who did travel through Canada to visit Cuba.

I have friends who've told me the Cuban authorities are quite happy not to stamp your passport if you ask them not to. 

[Fragile Bird]

Yup, I have too. The question is,what are the consequences if you get caught? Though I don't know how you get caught,unless you are foolish enough to bring back Cuban rum.