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MLB 2019: The Good, The Bad, and The Mets


Myshkin

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1 hour ago, Ferrum Aeternum said:

They must fix the bullpen if they hope to challenge for a title, but yeah, the way they're playing lately is pretty exciting from the perspective of a fan. The prevailing wisdom is they'll pick up a closer (at least) by the trade deadline, but I'd rather they go ahead and make a move now if one is on the table. They can't afford for Jackson, Minter or whoever to blow 3 or 4 more games before the end of July. 

We have ample material such a trade. I think it is a mistake to trade too much for relief pitching, as it is such a crap shoot. Almost categorically, it has been a bad idea to sign relief pitchers. Minter looked great in his most recent appearance. Jackson...well he needs to get his head on straight if he's going to be the 9th inning guy. 

You're not wrong though, it is the obviously lacking bit of the Braves. But we have a lot of pitchers, hopefully Ynoa and other reinforcements can make only one closer necessary. We'll see over the next few weeks.

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32 minutes ago, Demetri said:

We have ample material such a trade. I think it is a mistake to trade too much for relief pitching, as it is such a crap shoot. Almost categorically, it has been a bad idea to sign relief pitchers. Minter looked great in his most recent appearance. Jackson...well he needs to get his head on straight if he's going to be the 9th inning guy. 

You're not wrong though, it is the obviously lacking bit of the Braves. But we have a lot of pitchers, hopefully Ynoa and other reinforcements can make only one closer necessary. We'll see over the next few weeks.

Agree on all. No need to give away too many of those young tradeable assets on bullpen help, but it still feels like something is needed and that the right guy at the back end could make a world of difference. Minter was so awful to start the year that I'm still not sure I trust him at this point to be the guy. 

Your point on Ynoa is a good one; someone needs to emerge from among all those power arms we have floating around AAA. I had, and still have really high hopes for Wright and Sobotka, but they've both struggled this year.

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1 hour ago, Arch-MaesterPhilip said:

Not with Florial lurking down there

If they could, I'd rather they trade Florial and keep Frazier.  But the latter probably has significantly more trade value right now.  Plus, Florial has the advantages of being a lefty and capable of playing center.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

If they could, I'd rather they trade Florial and keep Frazier.  But the latter probably has significantly more trade value right now.  Plus, Florial has the advantages of being a lefty and capable of playing center.

I think you might be overestimating Frazier's trade value. First, he has less team control than Florial. Second, he is a terrible defender. Like, breaking the metrics bad. Most FOs are savvy enough to realize this. Despite his wRC+ of 118 (18% better than league average), ALL defensive metrics agree that he bleeds value defensively (it is super rare for multiple defensive metrics to paint someone as aggressively bad at defense.) That certainly mitigates his value moving forward. He is a liability in the field and, as a result, his fWAR is on pace for about 1.5 for the season. And that's assuming his offensive production stays on par, with most projections seeing him as playing well above his skill level.

Meanwhile, Florial still has some prospect hype. His value already has baked in his lefty status and defensive positive. At 21, he's just outside of top 100 prospect lists and is probably worth about $28 million in excess value as a 50 FV prospect. He's also trending towards increasing value, and moving from a 50 FV to 55 if his hit tool plays up nearly doubles that excess value.  That is a fair amount of value, especially if traded for a MLer and especially if that MLer signed a FA contract. 

Frazier is also likely to be overpaid in arbitration as his offensive stats look fine, and defensive metrics are less thoroughly examined than counting stats. Frazier is a nice piece, but he is NOT an attractive OFer, instead he looks decidedly like a liability. He would be a fantastic occasional DH, PH for interleague games, guy off the bat who can at least play as well as a cardboard cutout in the field. That's a fair amount of utility for one roster spot with questionable value. He also represents a ceding of trade leverage to the other team who can easily ask "So....what is Frazier to you moving forward? Why ya trading the guy?" and changing the asking price. 

 

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2 hours ago, Ferrum Aeternum said:

Agree on all. No need to give away too many of those young tradeable assets on bullpen help, but it still feels like something is needed and that the right guy at the back end could make a world of difference. Minter was so awful to start the year that I'm still not sure I trust him at this point to be the guy. 

Your point on Ynoa is a good one; someone needs to emerge from among all those power arms we have floating around AAA. I had, and still have really high hopes for Wright and Sobotka, but they've both struggled this year.

If you're a big Braves fan I highly recommend www.talkingchop.com . If you ask me, best single team sports blog around. We'd love to have ya.

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13 minutes ago, Demetri said:

If you're a big Braves fan I highly recommend www.talkingchop.com . If you ask me, best single team sports blog around. We'd love to have ya.

I think I'm a Facebook fan of that blog? I'll check it out.  I've been a fan of the team since '82. 

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Just now, Ferrum Aeternum said:

I think I'm a Facebook fan of that blog? I'll check it out.  I've been a fan of the team since '82. 

I can't overstate what a great community it is. Minor League recaps every week. Great prospect guys. One of the best analytics/statistically minded guys that writes as baseball stuff as a hobby. Really active both on posts and comments. I'm GumpBrave over there. Feel free to say hello. It can be a bit daunting to join in, but it is a really friendly group and most people are incredibly welcoming. It is fairly analytics driven, but it can be a great way to spruce up on that viewpoint of baseball understanding.

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3 hours ago, Demetri said:

I think you might be overestimating Frazier's trade value. First, he has less team control than Florial.

Strongly disagree with the notion Florial > Frazier in terms of trade value, or even that they're close to equal.  I'm well aware of Frazier's defensive woes and subsequent horrid metrics, but, first, defensive metrics are suspect and volatile for an individual player anyway - I still think they often don't comport to the eye test.  Second, we're really only basing this off his 319 innings in right field this year, that's not a lot to go off of.  Third, he clearly has all the physical tools to be a solid fielder, his problems this year are obviously in his head, which indicates he can improve considerably, especially because he's still only 24.  Fourth, he's always graded out as average defensively by evaluators - with a strong arm - which supports the expectation that his fielding can be considerably improved going forward.  Fifth, his metrics weirdly have graded pretty damn well in left this year (granted, in only 91 innings) while league-worst in right, which doesn't make much sense considering left is the much tougher position in Yankee stadium.

Offensively, Frazier demonstrated he can be an ~120 wRC+ in the major leagues this year.  He has an .843 OPS in 53 MLB games this year while Florial has a .758 OPS in 9 games at High A this year.  You're wrong that Florial's value is trending up.  He dropped off most top 100 prospect lists this offseason, then missed the first two months of the year to injury.  Hopefully he can regain that value by the deadline, but he still has yet to prove he can even make consistent contact against breaking balls and still has yet to face even Double A pitching.  As for years of control, the guy who's shown he can perform at the major league level (offensively, at least) and is still under control through 2023 definitely has significantly more value than a complete lotto pick like Florial, who may never even reach the majors.

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2 hours ago, DMC said:

Strongly disagree with the notion Florial > Frazier in terms of trade value, or even that they're close to equal.  I'm well aware of Frazier's defensive woes and subsequent horrid metrics, but, first, defensive metrics are suspect and volatile for an individual player anyway - I still think they often don't comport to the eye test.  Second, we're really only basing this off his 319 innings in right field this year, that's not a lot to go off of.  Third, he clearly has all the physical tools to be a solid fielder, his problems this year are obviously in his head, which indicates he can improve considerably, especially because he's still only 24.  Fourth, he's always grade out as average defensively by evaluators - with a strong arm - which supports the expectation that his fielding can be considerably improved going forward.  Fifth, his metrics weirdly have graded pretty damn well in left this year (granted, in only 91 innings) while league-worst in right, which doesn't make much sense considering left is the much tougher position in Yankee stadium.

Offensively, Frazier demonstrated he can be an ~120 wRC+ in the major leagues this year.  He has an .843 OPS in 53 MLB games this year while Florial has a .758 OPS in 9 games at High A this year.  You're wrong that Florial's value is trending up.  He dropped off most top 100 prospect lists this offseason, then missed the first two months of the year to injury.  Hopefully he can regain that value by the deadline, but he still has yet to prove he can even make consistent contact against breaking balls and still has yet to face even Double A pitching.  As for years of control, the guy who's shown he can perform at the major league level (offensively, at least) and is still under control through 2023 definitely has significantly more value than a complete lotto pick like Florial, who may never even reach the majors.

I'm not very sure that either really has tremendous value at this point, my point was not so much Florial > Frazier. His defensive metrics have been very consistent over his piecemeal playing time. They also stabilize more quickly than you might think, so while full year sample sizes would be preferable, he has sufficient information to judge.

And even aggregated, his defensive numbers really bear out the positional adjustment from LF to RF. He has had a decent 91 innings in LF, but also has 236 additional LF innings that grade out as very bad. The LF number are probably anomalously bad, but he hasn't shown the ability to be even an average defender yet. Additionally, various metrics agree that he has been bad and almost agree on how bad (which is super duper rare and suggestive.) The problem appears to be that he isn't fielding all the really high percentage plays and doesn't field any of the low percentage plays. Normally, the profile for a defender set for improvement is that he makes some of the really unlikely plays but also misses some of the easier plays, suggesting that raw athleticism and mental errors are being reconciled. Not so for Frazier.  Sure, there is a possibility to improve, but that's as speculative as Florial's value. 

I don't really think either has tremendous value and I think if Frazier is traded, that unless a team gets had, you'll probably be disappointed by the return. Frazier is on pace for either about 1.5 fWAR or 1.0 bWar. There is not a lot of excess value there, whereas a generic 50 FV position player is valued at around $28 million (just outside of top 100, as you mentioned.) That is a prospect valuation general rule of thumb, irrespective of distance from minors. Florial's hit tool is certainly questionable, but I think Frazier has plenty of question marks of his own and only 3.5 years of team control for a player who, as you cede, is a project at least defensively doesn't make for an attractive trade candidate. Maybe a AL team will take a flier, but I don't think NL teams would be that interested. That further limits his trade value.

I personally think Frazier is actually over-performing at the moment. His BB% is ghastly, his K% remains super high, he's simply gotten quality contact that has allowed a high ISO to prop up a .330 OBP. Combine those concerns with very legitimate concerns about his glove, and I think lots of ML clubs view him as a known commodity. Defensive awakenings at age 24 (soon to be 25) are rare. Even rarer when you consider that he has a sufficient sample size at the ML level and both UZR and Total Zone basically agreeing on how bad of a fielder he is (and even why). He might be more valuable than Florial, but he isn't going to get back more than a 50 FV prospect (precisely what Florial is) unless someone overpays. Frazier has yet to suggest that he's anything more than a sub at this point. Only an overpay gets you more value than that, to be honest.

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2 hours ago, Demetri said:

He might be more valuable than Florial, but he isn't going to get back more than a 50 FV prospect (precisely what Florial is) unless someone overpays. Frazier has yet to suggest that he's anything more than a sub at this point. Only an overpay gets you more value than that, to be honest.

Well, that was basically my point.  Overall, you have far more faith in the defensive metrics than I do, and I think many evaluators believe Frazier's defense is perfectly capable of improving to at least only slightly below average - it's simply wrong to suggest someone with as few innings as he does (which is compounded by him switching from left to right, as you note) and is only 24 does not have a good opportunity to improve his performance considerably.  

I'm not saying he can net a big-name pitcher by himself, but he's certainly could (and almost certainly now will) be part of a package to shore up their rotation.  Generally, I'm saying he has rebuilt his trade value, which was basically kaput when the season started after lost season last year.  And I think teams value him significantly higher than Florial because he has that big league success at the bat, whereas Florial has a very glaring hole that quite possibly could prevent him from reaching the majors even with his arguably four 60+ tools.  

ETA: 

Quote

Frazier is on pace for either about 1.5 fWAR or 1.0 bWar. There is not a lot of excess value there, whereas a generic 50 FV position player is valued at around $28 million (just outside of top 100, as you mentioned.) That is a prospect valuation general rule of thumb, irrespective of distance from minors. Florial's hit tool is certainly questionable, but I think Frazier has plenty of question marks of his own and only 3.5 years of team control for a player who, as you cede, is a project at least defensively doesn't make for an attractive trade candidate. Maybe a AL team will take a flier, but I don't think NL teams would be that interested. That further limits his trade value.

I also think you're fundamentally mistaken in terms of his valuation.  Just because he has a fWAR (I prefer fWAR for hitters) of .5 in 53 games doesn't peg him as 1.5 guy for the next three and a half years.  If he improves he defense, that'd become a.7, or maybe even a .9, which means he could definitely be a 2-3 WAR guy for three years.  That's certainly more valuable than a fringy lotto pick with basically no experience above High A like Florial.  Mike Axisa, at least, thinks Frazier could be the centerpiece of a deal for Trevor Bauer:

Quote

The Indians desperately need outfield help and a Frazier for Kluber or Bauer framework could make sense -- Cleveland originally drafted Frazier and sent him to New York in the Andrew Miller deal -- depending whether the Indians actually sell. The Yankees did ask about Kluber and Carlos Carrasco over the winter, though that was due diligence more than anything. With the Indians falling out of it and the Yankees needing a starter, they could rekindle those talks in earnest in the coming weeks. 

Now, yes, Axisa is biased as a lifelong Yankee fan, but he's always strived to be pretty fair in his trade proposals I think.  And he certainly knows as much about analytics as you or I.  You're treating Frazier like teams perceive him as a fourth outfielder type.  I do not think that's the case.

ETA II:  Also, just to clarify, Frazier has 4 and a half years left of control, not 3 and a half, according to spotrac.

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So quite the gem from Tanaka tonight, that was nice to see.  Didn't follow the gamecast religiously, but looks like he's got his splitter going again.  Also, Boone said before the game that he expects Judge back "in a few days."  Sound like he may be up for the Astros series.  Any other Yank fans here (or anybody) have any thoughts on how the "A" lineup should look when both he and Stanton return?  Here's what I got:

  1. Hicks
  2. Judge
  3. Sanchez
  4. Stanton
  5. Voit
  6. Encarnacion
  7. Didi
  8. Torres
  9. LeMahieu

This is assuming Hicks returns to form, which he hasn't as of yet - although his June has been much better than his May (in almost exactly the same plate appearances).  May seem weird to demote DJ all the way from 1 to 5, but 2017-18 Hicks is an on base machine, and even with LaMahieu hitting .311 his OBP is only .355.  He can serve as the "second leadoff man" that Torres served as last year.  Five righties in a row isn't ideal, but damn that's a lot of power.  I don't expect this to be the lineup though.  Boone seems to prefer Voit over Sanchez (at least IRT higher in the lineup), and I doubt he's gonna demote LeMahieu even though his wRC+ is lower than everyone else's (except Hicks right now).

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9 hours ago, DMC said:

So quite the gem from Tanaka tonight, that was nice to see.  Didn't follow the gamecast religiously, but looks like he's got his splitter going again.  Also, Boone said before the game that he expects Judge back "in a few days."  Sound like he may be up for the Astros series.  Any other Yank fans here (or anybody) have any thoughts on how the "A" lineup should look when both he and Stanton return?  Here's what I got:

  1. Hicks
  2. Judge
  3. Sanchez
  4. Stanton
  5. Voit
  6. Encarnacion
  7. Didi
  8. Torres
  9. LeMahieu

This is assuming Hicks returns to form, which he hasn't as of yet - although his June has been much better than his May (in almost exactly the same plate appearances).  May seem weird to demote DJ all the way from 1 to 5, but 2017-18 Hicks is an on base machine, and even with LaMahieu hitting .311 his OBP is only .355.  He can serve as the "second leadoff man" that Torres served as last year.  Five righties in a row isn't ideal, but damn that's a lot of power.  I don't expect this to be the lineup though.  Boone seems to prefer Voit over Sanchez (at least IRT higher in the lineup), and I doubt he's gonna demote LeMahieu even though his wRC+ is lower than everyone else's (except Hicks right now).

I was at the game last night and thought they were going to pull him after the strikeout to end the eighth inning. I am glad I was wrong about that, best pitched game I've ever seen in person. I like your lineup just like that. LeMahieu should get tons of RBI opportunities like that. 

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On 6/17/2019 at 8:27 PM, DMC said:

I also think you're fundamentally mistaken in terms of his valuation.  Just because he has a fWAR (I prefer fWAR for hitters) of .5 in 53 games doesn't peg him as 1.5 guy for the next three and a half years.  If he improves he defense, that'd become a.7, or maybe even a .9, which means he could definitely be a 2-3 WAR guy for three years.  That's certainly more valuable than a fringy lotto pick with basically no experience above High A like Florial.  Mike Axisa, at least, thinks Frazier could be the centerpiece of a deal for Trevor Bauer:

I don't think a single team will accept valuations that suggest he's a 2-3 WAR guy. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that. It requires that he both a) Continue hitting at his current pace, b) reverse his trends defensively. I'm with you that perhaps he can become a below average guy instead of terrible, but any addition to overall war is because his defensive contributions become less negative. Teams can sometimes be convinced that a guy is a 2-3 WAR guy if he's done it before. But Frazier as a 3 WAR guy is a lotto ticket, too as you're buying the chance of a potential upturn in value that doesn't really have a very strong basis in reality. I think his defensive metrics will get better (they really can't get worse) but not enough to really shift the narrative. What is concerning though, is that he's also due (perhaps even moreso) for some serious regression at the plate. Altogether (and even with a rosy outlook defensively), I think 2-3 with regularity is unfathomable.

Speaking to Frazier's success at the plate this year in particular. It looks to be flukey when you dive into the numbers. First of all, Yankees stadium gifted him with two HRs that are outs in most stadiums (4-16 and 4-22). https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/clint-frazier-640449?stats=career-r-visuals-mlb Shows his spray chart and with an overlay of average stadium dimensions. The short RF porch in NY has dramatically altered his result and in only 53 games has transformed two possible (one very likely) out into HRs, contributing tremendously to his SLG%. The 4-16 HR was the more respectable of the two at 364 ft, a 100.6 mph exit velocity and a 29 (!!!) degree launch angle. It had an xBA (probability of being a hit) of .670. Let's say that one turns into a double. The 4-20 HR, however, was simply an out that Yankee Stadium made into a HR. It had an .xBA of .270, travelling 356 feet with a pedestrian exit velocity and a poor launch angle at 34 degrees. That's an out elsewhere. There is a very good argument that his home stadium has helped his numbers (including defensively, given the limited range to cover). In fact, it already has. 

That all sounds very anecdotal, but when you delve into his batted ball profile, it is apparent that he isn't doing anything special. His exit velocity is below average, he isn't making solid contact at a higher rate. His spray chart is consistent. His BB% is TERRIBLE (6.4%), his K% is slightly improved but still quite bad at 29.3%. He doesn't really do anything particularly well that would give you any reason to think he's a 120 wRC+ guy moving forward, or will even retain this level of hitting.

To illustrate how luck driven his 2019 has been thus far: his BABIP of .347 is going to lead to regression and it's going to be painful. A BABIP of .347 is extremely elite (average is about .300). That's a huge expected drop-off in production. Frazier has a sprint speed above average, but he's not a candidate for having a sustainably high BABIP. Even if he was, .347 is not within the realm of possibility. With regression, he probably ends up a slightly above average to average hitter (as Steamer, ZiPS and the other prominent projections predicted). The difference between his wOBA and his xwOBA (expected wOBA) is around .030, a meaningful and notable gap also suggesting that his results are largely driven by luck (.322 xwOBA vs .355 wOBA, which shows that his results have indicated performance beyond what we would expect given what he has actually done.) Regression is coming, and it's coming hard. Meaningful data suggesting that he's going to sustain or improve on his 2019 isn't really out there. 

There is a quantifiable reason to believe that he will regress as a hitter, but what suggests that it is a) improvable or even b) sustainable? But the up-to-date projections systems (which incorporate data from 2019 thus far) ALL have a pretty bleak outlook on his future. I looked at his batted ball profile before looking at the projections and we basically agree on the output (a hitter about average or up to 10% better than average.) Most projections agree that he will remain a poor defender over the course of the year but not continue to bleed value on his present pace. (sidenote: I was not intending to suggest that his present defensive performance will persist at these low levels, but merely that there is reason to believe that he is not a very good defender. His rates at the moment are some of the worst in statcast history. That won't continue, but he's still probably pretty bad.) Those projections have him as about a 1.2 WAR contributor over the course of a year. I tend to agree.

He is a generic power hitter who isn't really good at anything and has been getting very lucky so far this year. Even with that luck, he is only 20% better than the average hitter. That is not a rosy outlook. Notice the percentile rankings on the top right which bear out that he has a poor hard hit %, poor exit velocity, poor launch angle, and a poor xBA and xwOBA (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/clint-frazier-640449?stats=career-r-visuals-mlb). There is no good explanation for his luck beyond luck. Therefore, regression looms.

Two final notes on Frazier:

1) Thank you for clarifying the team control number. I noticed it didn't fit with what I was reading, but the issue for me was more about what he'll be moving forward. More concerning than team control is age. People continue to have a collective misunderstanding of aging curves for baseball players. The conventional wisdom is that peak is 27-32 (or something similar) but that isn't the case anymore. At nearly 25 (24, 9 months, I believe) Frazier is either in his prime or leaving his prime, depending on what source you look at. This really hurts arguments that suggest that he is due for improvement. To further undermine those arguments, his prospect pedigree directly suggests that "late bloomer" is not really the case for him as it has been a confounding factor for some (read: few) other players. It isn't impossible. But 25 can no longer be said to be pre-peak. It is damning for what sort of improvement can rightfully be expected. The age chart for defenders is even less forgiving and suggests that his age already comes with some defensive decline.

2) For the sake of rough math I tripled his current figures when they rightfully should be doubled to reflect his contributions moving forward. Steamer thinks he'll get just over double his current appearances, others think he'll get far less. But they all agree that BABIP and xwOBA is about to regress like mad. 

(Here is a source overlaying his hits on various parks. I picked Atlanta just for funsies to help illustrate the point made on the two HRs- 2 of 11. But there really is at least one more HR that is questionable.) https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=triple|home\.\.run|&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R|&hfC=&hfSea=2019|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&batters_lookup[]=640449&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

Florial is also, in my opinion, poorly characterized as a "fringy lotto pick" unless you think that all low-minors prospects are inherently fringy lotto picks. You're obviously more informed on having observed him, but I'm looking at industry consensus which has him as AT LEAST a 45 FV, most as a 50 FV. For prospect evaluators, that's approximately a top 100 prospect (which seems to be the GENERAL area of Florial- let's not quibble over top 100 versus top 125). Given his injury issues and being 1.5 years younger than the average at A+ (not famous for housing AAAA players), I think his outlook is better than you seem to (given what I've inferred.) True lotto picks have no carrying tools. Florial has two in speed and arm. Speed, as a carrying tool, actually presents value with regularity (and is also baked into defense and, to a lesser extent, hitting ability). If he had 0 carrying tools and was simply a 5 tool potential player with nothing manifested, I'd agree. That isn't really the case. Which is probably why he's still a 50 FV (very, very good) top 100-125 prospect. Those have a lot of value. Yes, it depends on what you think of him personally. But that applies to everything in baseball evaluation.

As a numbers guy, check this fun little thing out. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

It does exactly what it says, it calculates surplus value and does the calculations for proposed trades for ya. It also, interestingly, has Florial and Frazier as having a difference of value of precisely $500,000. I happened upon this site earlier and put it in for funsies and would have posted it regardless of what it said on that particular valuation. But it isn't controversial. 50 FV position prospects have a general consensus value and are only lotto picks insofar as any other 50 FV prospect is a lotto pick and that is only because all players not in MLB are, by definition, lotto picks.

Edit: You're absolutely right Frazier can be a centerpiece for Bauer, but you need to nearly double Frazier's value to really get there. And that assumes that the Indians (currently -0.5 of a WC spot) are willing to sell. Luckily, Bauer's value drops more precipitously from the passage of time than Frazier's, so if you wait he'll become a larger slice of the value-pie required. But to convince the Indians to sell and abandon 2019 playoff hopes, you'd have to purposefully overpay. Yanks should be perfectly happy waiting until the trade deadline or until the Indians are willing sellers, at which point Frazier will represent a higher percentage of the value required for Bauer.

 

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2 hours ago, Demetri said:

I don't think a single team will accept valuations that suggest he's a 2-3 WAR guy. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that. It requires that he both a) Continue hitting at his current pace, b) reverse his trends defensively. I'm with you that perhaps he can become a below average guy instead of terrible, but any addition to overall war is because his defensive contributions become less negative.

Yeah, we just fundamentally disagree in terms of our perceptions of how teams evaluate Frazier.  And I think you're quite clearly wrong.  I think most teams view him as a solid corner outfield starter that can provide above average offense and hopefully only slightly below average defense - who's under team control for 4.5 years and is ready to go right now.  And it's not just me and Axisa who think it.  This Indians blog thinks Frazier as the key piece in a Bauer trade is an attractive prospect.  This Giants blog thinks he'd be "really attractive" in a trade for Bumgarner.  And while I'm definitely not a fan of Jim Bowden, he presumably still has many contacts in the industry and said the tweet below.  Honestly, if you google "clint frazier trade," I can't find any source that has nearly as low of an opinion of his value as you do.  It's just you.

 

2 hours ago, Demetri said:

What is concerning though, is that he's also due (perhaps even moreso) for some serious regression at the plate.

From our previous discussions, I assume you're at least somewhat trained in statistics, so you should know regression goes both ways.  You mentioned in a previous post his overly high K rate and very low walk rate.  Both of those should regress as well - as wells as his inflated ISO.  It's  really not hard to expect Frazier to be an above average, or a 110-120 wRC+ hitter, for the next five years.

 

Alright, I'm tapping out after your first paragraph.  I appreciate the very detailed response, but I took the day off and watched the Yanks kick the shit of the Rays to complete the sweep.  Pretty pumped, pretty drunk, and the above are pretty much my main points anyway.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Yeah, we just fundamentally disagree in terms of our perceptions of how teams evaluate Frazier.  And I think you're quite clearly wrong.  I think most teams view him as a solid corner outfield starter that can provide above average offense and hopefully only slightly below average defense - who's under team control for 4.5 years and is ready to go right now.  And it's not just me and Axisa who think it.  This Indians blog thinks Frazier as the key piece in a Bauer trade is an attractive prospect.  This Giants blog thinks he'd be "really attractive" in a trade for Bumgarner.  And while I'm definitely not a fan of Jim Bowden, he presumably still has many contacts in the industry and said the tweet below.  Honestly, if you google "clint frazier trade," I can't find any source that has nearly as low of an opinion of his value as you do.  It's just you.

From our previous discussions, I assume you're at least somewhat trained in statistics, so you should know regression goes both ways.  You mentioned in a previous post his overly high K rate and very low walk rate.  Both of those should regress as well - as wells as his inflated ISO.  It's  really not hard to expect Frazier to be an above average, or a 110-120 wRC+ hitter, for the next five years.

 

Alright, I'm tapping out after your first paragraph.  I appreciate the very detailed response, but I took the day off and watched the Yanks kick the shit of the Rays to complete the sweep.  Pretty pumped, pretty drunk, and the above are pretty much my main points anyway.

I am most certainly not "quite clearly wrong" but disagreements are fine. We don't have anything suggesting how most teams view him. We do know that Scott Boras, of all people, has said that teams have reached a general agreement and that that general perception of value is tied into analytics. And it isn't just me who thinks he's, at best, a 4th outfielder. I put more stock in statistical projection models than blog posts, but I could easily dredge up contradicting opinions. Hell, the link provided for trade value is a static tool that inputs data and pops out other data and it disagrees with you. He might be ready to go now, but the concern is what he's going to be able to do when he gets out there. All data indicates a 4th or 5th outfielder (depending on the quality of the team.) I explained my rationale in detail as a basis for why I (and the projection systems, and this random resource that is linked below) all tend to agree that he is limited. He's being traded because he is not a legitimate starter. We can say "Oh, maybe he turns into Hank Aaron" and that's fine, but we have no reason to think he will. We have a lot of reason to think his offensive production is going to drop as he adds more and more data to 2019. I highly recommend scanning over the rest of my post because I explain precisely what is happening with Frazier as a player and why he's likely to be worse moving forward. It wasn't an assertion, it was carefully constructed support for my contention.

I'm not simply asserting that he'll get worse at the plate. BABIP and xwOBA demonstrate that he is paying over his head. The regression isn't theoretical, we can point to numbers that indicate why and how much he'll regress. It might not be hard to imagine him as a 110-120 wRC+ hitter, but it is still imagining. But the projections that incorporate his data total and from this year all see that his results are luck driven. Without him being super lucky, he's not a 120 wRC+ guy. He's a 100-110 wRC+ guy who, with bad defense, has extremely limited value. Namely, his value is that of a 4th of 5th OFer (this isn't some rogue assertion, look at the projections! look at his batted ball profile, look at the gap between his production and his expected production.) 

I'm deep-diving in the numbers to reach these conclusions, which happen to jive with projections. Teams use such models and data in valuing player. In fact, the player trade link I provided is based on a bunch things, including past trades, market value, arbitration history etc. They value him as providing $20.4 million in surplus value, which is right around Florial and what I've been saying.

Sure, regression goes both ways and in all things, but there is a subtle distinction here as I'm speaking directly to how and why his offensive output will regress to HIS mean. The luck driven results indicated by BABIP and xwOBA show WHY regression is going to happen. Projection systems have his BB% regressing UP to maybe 8%ish. That still isn't great. His K% is very unlikely to regress. It isn't high relative to his performance or any expectation, simply high compared to the league average. But he is unlikely to regress to THAT mean because he doesn't have a league average batted ball profile. He's a generic power hitter, and with that comes a high K%. That K% might be the most predictable stat we have on him. BB% will go up, but it won't ever be good. 

The regression from him comes from his performance indicating better results than his below average hard hit %, exit velocity, xwOBA and launch angle suggests. That's where the regression comes from, not simply cancelling out the noise from data. This isn't hypothetical. I guarantee you that his BA is going to go down over the course of the year UNLESS his luck holds. Again, note that the gap between average BABIP and his BABIP is bout .040-.050 points. That's what I mean when I say it's going to hit hard. Everything points to him playing well over his head, if you guys find a suitor willing to buy a half season of solid, luck-driven offensive production then pull that trigger immediately. After all, you only have to find one team willing to trade.

I also agreed with you that he can be a centerpiece for Bauer (that link I provided earlier and mentioned earlier in this post, this one: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/) is super interesting. So, centerpiece, yes. But that calculator suggests you need to at least provide 80% of Frazier's value to Frazier's already $20.4 mill surplus value to reach Bauer's value. 

Sidenote: I hope Snell is okay. I didn't see the play, but after Newcomb had a 102 mph hit bounce off of his head into foul territory, perhaps it is time to start seriously considering those protective pitcher caps.

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1 minute ago, Demetri said:

All data indicates a 4th or 5th outfielder (depending on the quality of the team.)

What data?  ZiPS?  How often are those even updated?  They may very well change after his recent performance.  Regardless, I'll take actual real life data over projections, thanks.  Same thing with expect wOBA.  As for BABIP, there's an inherent difference between every player.  I don't think it's an indicator, really.  It's a reflection of actual indicators - like exit velocity, ground/fly ball rates, or even barrels, which his pretty solid in.  Also, no one's saying he's gonna turn into Hank Aaron, that's a strawman.

14 minutes ago, Demetri said:

I also agreed with you that he can be a centerpiece for Bauer (that link I provided earlier and mentioned earlier in this post, this one: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/) is super interesting.

Ok, then I don't really know what we're arguing about.  That's all I'm arguing.  And I don't see Florial as being the centerpiece of a trade for Bauer or Bumgarner or Stroman (although I'm suspect Frazier as the centerpiece could net Stroman myself).

Oh, and yeah I hope Snell is OK as well.  I saw the play, didn't look like much, but you never know what the training staff sees that we don't.  Plus, it was just an unbelievably terrible inning for him.  He was at 39 pitches with only one out.  They probably wanted to get him out of there if they saw something funky or not.

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9 minutes ago, DMC said:

What data?  ZiPS?  How often are those even updated?  They may very well change after his recent performance.  Regardless, I'll take actual real life data over projections, thanks.  Same thing with expect wOBA.  As for BABIP, there's an inherent difference between every player.  I don't think it's an indicator, really.  It's a reflection of actual indicators - like exit velocity, ground/fly ball rates, or even barrels, which his pretty solid in.  Also, no one's saying he's gonna turn into Hank Aaron, that's a strawman.

Ok, then I don't really know what we're arguing about.  That's all I'm arguing.  And I don't see Florial as being the centerpiece of a trade for Bauer or Bumgarner or Stroman (although I'm suspect Frazier as the centerpiece could net Stroman myself).

Oh, and yeah I hope Snell is OK as well.  I saw the play, didn't look like much, but you never know what the training staff sees that we don't.  Plus, it was just an unbelievably terrible inning for him.  He was at 39 pitches with only one out.  They probably wanted to get him out of there if they saw something funky or not.

They incorporate live stats as the season goes. Current projections seen on fangraphs are what the projection systems think will happen MOVING FORWARD, meaning add that production (or rate of production) to the present figures. As to how often they're updated, I'm not sure, they keep their methodology hush-hush. But it is updated and is approximately live and inclusive of all data he's produced.

He is also not solid in exit velocity and hard hit%, he is actually below average. For hard hit %, he is the 25th percentile of MLers, his exit velocity is at the 37th percentile. This is the "generic power hitter who doesn't do anything well" thing I was saying. The baseball savant link shows that he is below average in both categories. His hard hit % is actually a major cause for concern, as is his exit velocity. I wasn't trying to prop up a straw man with the Hank Aaron thing, I meant to say that anything is possible, but the numbers don't suggest any reason for optimism.  

Yes, there are some players who inherently have high BABIP and xwOBA players. They are the exception, not the rule. And generally there is some skill that can be identified to explain it (such as preternatural speed.) No such explanation exists for Frazier. It would be nearly unprecedented to outperform your peripheral stats by THAT much. A BABIP of .347 is super elite. A great way to illustrate how flexible BABIP is is that pitchers and hitters EACH have an approximate average BABIP of .300. A BABIP of .347 only makes sense with elite contact. His current .347 would tie him with Baez from last year's leaderboards. The only player from 2018 to have a similar BABIP with a BA below .290 was Brandon Nimmo (BABIP of .351, BA of .263.) This year, he's regressed in a big way. BABIP is just luck accumulation, on average, with rare cases in which especially speedy guys can outperform. Frazier is graded as fast, but he is not fast enough that he's worth of that luck.

He has simply gotten lucky. And almost all FOs (We miss you Dave Stewart, we can also probably include the Orioles) are savvy to this. They won't pay for half a year's worth of luck-driven stats that only make him 20% better than average. I concede that his defense will bounce back (it virtually has to) but his offensive stats are gloom and doom.

I'd be down for a sig bet if you are with the terms being some level of production with some PA threshold for him. 

As to the trade value, yea I'm not sure we disagree on Frazier having value. I'm not saying he's without value. But while the Yanks might push to have FOs consider him as a 2-3 WAR player, it is based solely on speculation and a best case scenario. By centerpiece, if you mean more than half the trade value for Bauer, then sure. But industry consensus is that Florial provides almost the same value (the calculator has it off by $500,000 which is consistent with various other prospect valuation figures). These figures ARE hypothetical, but they're grounded in common practice and past trades. Once again, you need to add about 80% of Frazier's value to Frazier to get to Bauer's surplus value. I'd agree that that is a centerpiece, but you still need about 16-18 million value added onto the $20.4 million for Frazier. And that is disregarding market factors for the Indians (are they competitive, when will they decide to sell, if they rebuild what is their timeframe). If I'm the Indians and I decide to sell, 50-55 FV prospects (especially position prospects with some pedigree/history) are my target, not 25 year olds with looming questions.

Once again, industry consensus suggests Florial and Frazier have nearly identical value moving forward. Frazier has a smaller range of outcomes, Florial has MUCH more upside. Pick your poison. I simply struggle to term any 50 FV position player a "lotto pick", especially when he already has two carrying tools. Yes, there is risk, but also more upside. A club fully devoted to a rebuild might well prefer the prospect with loud tools but inconsistency over Frazier. But speaking objectively, disregarding for a moment who Florial is as a player, he is worth about the same amount (approximately $20 million in surplus value). Florial and Frazier together only exceed the suggested surplus value of Bauer by $3 million and change (or something very close to that.)

MadBum isn't really that valuable. SF fans think he is, but Frazier and Florial are about double his value. I also have major doubts about his efficacy moving forward, but that's a different subject. I think the calculator also overvalues him but it might be baking in a compensation pick if he is kept (which isn't a ton in reality but does represent an opportunity cost both of choice and of slot money flexibility.) Stroman is super close. You'd need to add something to Frazier, but that could almost get it done and only leaves about $5 million surplus value needed. You're right on Stroman, he's close but I would be surprised if he alone is sufficient. MadBum would be a HUGE overpay at Frazier alone. 

Yea, we don't disagree that much once we come down to that. Those 4.5 years of team control are exceptionally valuable, even for a 4th/5th outfielder (which context suggests Frazier is). It is interesting that we come to about the same general view despite the fact that you think I'm undervaluing him and I think you're overvaluing him. Florial, however, is much more a philosophical disagreement based on a tools v. ability approach to scouting that I'm trying to smooth over by pointing to general industry consensus. As a result, I won't argue about deep stats for Florial as it is perfectly legitimate to want to see ability whereas someone else might salivate over the 5-tool potential and adjust value accordingly. 

As a bit of a wander, teams are more and more approaching hitters with the mindset of "Is this prospect viable for a swing adjustment." Clint Frazier is who is he, basically, or at least in terms of general batted ball profile (generic power hitter who doesn't excel at anything in particular) but Florial's upside and relative youth might lead some teams to believe he is a viable candidate for a swing renaissance. This generally happens more in the draft than trades (at least, with a top 100ish prospect) but the shift in thinking is happening.

To take it big picture again, it is happening because the industry is more and more looking at the same stuff. Some of, but not nearly all, are the factors mentioned above that give me great concern about Frazier moving forward.

On Snell: Did you see the Newcomb come-backer? (https://www.mlb.com/video/comebacker-hits-newcomb-in-head) That....is scary. But concussion is a wonky pursuit. They just put him on the 7 day IL, but reports are that it is largely precautionary. Yet, we all know that concussion symptoms can be dormant or present themselves a time after the initial injury. Super scary. Tyler Flowers and AJ Pierzynski each have companies or products designed for the health of catchers. I think maybe it is time for pitchers to start considering wearing SOME gear. I mean the 102 mph liner on Newcomb bounced off his head INTO THE STANDS!!! That is super scary stuff. 

When I played, a friend of mine was getting BP from his dad (sans an L, I think you see where this story is going). Hit one low and right back up the middle. His father now has 1 testicle as a result of the shot. Obviously, he should have taken more precautions. But the combination of a throwing motion that leaves you somewhat helpless, the nature of balls hit back at the pitcher on a line, and the short reaction time means that seriously bad things can happen.

I'm glad to hear that Snell is okay, or at least that it wasn't horrific.

Sorry if I'm throwing a lot out here. I LOVE baseball and I derive great joy from talking about it. I think we probably love it for similar reasons (we both seem to enjoy stats and baseball is a game in which EVERYTHING can be expressed mathematically). I'm not trying to pick on you at all, or nitpick, so much as stoking conversations. Cheers for playing along. Drinking and watching baseball is a perfectly valid excuse, so if you'd respond later I'm about to be on the drunk baseball train myself.

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