Just how many people knew about the incest?

[Headfallsoff]

Renly must have known, or at least suspected. Or is he so stupid that he would try to repudiate a queen without valid reason and whose family held all the power in court? And he was entirely too prepared for Robert's death if he didn't know. Who would kill Robert if not for the incest?

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

They all *know* after Stannis has sent his letters - at least insofar as they deem it convincing or not.

Kevan doesn't find anything out - he just says what's on his mind in that moment, something he would likely never dared to say while Tywin was still alive. And it is the same with other people who talk the incest after the letters.

 

No, Cersei is convinced he knows the truth in AFFC, whereas she did not think he knew before despite the rumours.  

"Speak softly." Her voice sounded strange . . . breathless, almost frightened. "Jaime, Kevan has refused me. He will not serve as Hand, he . . . he knows about us. He said as much."

"Refused?" That surprised him. "How could he know? He will have read what Stannis wrote, but there is no . . ."

"Tyrion knew," she reminded him. "Who can say what tales that vile dwarf may have told, or to whom? Uncle Kevan is the least of it. The High Septon . . . Tyrion raised him to the crown, when the fat one died. He may know as well."

 

We know that Lance had been busy confessing his sins and that his father had been a constant at his side during his illness.

 

"When it seemed that I might die, my father brought the High Septon to pray for me. He is a good man." Her cousin's eyes were wet and shiny, a child's eyes in an old man's face. "He says the Mother spared me for some holy purpose, so I might atone for my sins."   

 

Lance confesses to Jaime, confessed to the High Septon I'm guessing he did the same with his father and Kevan was able to deduce the rest.

 

I always thought that was pretty obvious from the chain of events, Kevan's attitude towards the twins changes completely in AFFC.

[Bernie Mac]

43 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

Renly must have known, or at least suspected.

His words suggest he did not know. His actions make it clear that he did not know.

If he knew, when he was pleading with Ned to arrest the Queen, who he believed wanted him dead. he'd have told Ned there and then. He did not.

He'd not need a Lyanna alternative to remove Cersei from power if he knew the truth, Robert would execute her.

43 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

Or is he so stupid that he would try to repudiate a queen without valid reason and whose family held all the power in court?

His family held most of the power at court, his brother King, his other brother Master of Ships, he Master of Law and his nephew the heir of the Throne. The Barathons held the power.

But yeah, his actions are not actually that unusual. Check the French and English courts of the late middle ages, many powerful nobles were trying to arrange new wives/paramours for the monarch so they could hold more power than the Queen's faction.

 

43 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

And he was entirely too prepared for Robert's death if he didn't know. Who would kill Robert if not for the incest?

How was he prepared? He panicked when Robert was on his deathbed, wanted Ned to arrest the Queen, take charge of Joffrey and rule the kingdom. When Ned refused he fled the city. This was the actions of someone who knew what was happening beyond the dangers of Cersei being queen meant for him.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

No, Cersei is convinced he knows the truth in AFFC, whereas she did not think he knew before despite the rumours.  

That's just Cersei's paranoia speaking - a paranoia that started after he presumed to lecture her and tried to intimidate her with the men he (allegedly) controls. Kevan's final comment on Cersei/Jaime is just him being pretty, well, tired. He is done with Tywin's brats, and he wants them to know this. He always sat there and watched those pampered, spoiled brats bickering and scheming but once his dear brother was dead - and they didn't even have the decency to pretend to love/mourn the guy - he was done with them. Both of them - it is not just Cersei, it is Jaime, too. Remember that he is there when they bicker while Tywin's corpse grows cold in his bed.

That is also why his attitude changes early on in AFfC - why he demands rather than asks Cersei, etc. Part of him wants to sever ties with them. He doesn't want to play the 'close adviser' role for either Cersei or Jaime or both of them, and he definitely had no desire to serve Tommen as Lord Regent or acquire power for himself. He makes it very clear that he only wanted to return his brother's body to Casterly Rock. He only returns to KL because Swyft - his own father-in-law - and Pycelle beg him to do that after the Margaery crisis.

Kevan certainly also got very pissed at Cersei later due to the way she treated Lancel (which Kevan only seemed to have fully understood after Lancel talked to his father at Darry, since he only confronted Cersei about then when he visited her in the Great Sept in ADwD), but Lancel actually wasn't told anything about Cersei's children by her, meaning he didn't know more than they all knew from Stannis' letters. He certainly realized that Stannis' claims were true, etc., but you don't have to fuck Cersei to deduce that.

All Kevan needs for the twincest nonsense is Stannis' letter and looking with a different eye at the twin love thing between his niece and nephew. Olenna basically uses the same routine only a more subtle level when complaining loudly about Cersei wanting to use a Lannister cloak in the marriage ceremony. You don't need more than Stannis' letter to claim Cersei's children are not Robert's. The High Sparrow also just repeats what is already floating around as a rumor when he attaches this thing to the string of accusations laid at Cersei's feet.

[Foot_Of_The_King]

Those who know based on confession from one of the twins 

-Tyrion (already knew but Cersei confirms it)

-Ned 

-Cat (Jamie’s jailhouse confession) 

-Iylin Payne

Am I missing anyone?

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That's just Cersei's paranoia speaking -

Hardly

 

Traitor, she thought. Turncloak. She wondered how much Mace Tyrell had given him. "You would abandon your king when he needs you most," she told him. "You would abandon Tommen."

"Tommen has his mother." Ser Kevan's green eyes met her own, unblinking. A last drop of wine trembled wet and red beneath his chin, and finally fell. "Aye," he added softly, after a pause, "and his father too, I think."

 

Kevan reveals he knows the truth. There is no other way to take that final remark. Which Jaime pretty much confirms when he goes to confront Kevan about it

"Your sister knows my terms. They have not changed. Tell her that, the next time you are in her bedchamber." Ser Kevan put his heels into his courser and galloped ahead, putting an abrupt end to their conversation.

Jaime let him go, his missing sword hand twitching. He had hoped against hope that Cersei had somehow misunderstood, but plainly that was wrong. He knows about the two of us. About Tommen and Myrcella. And Cersei knows he knows. Ser Kevan was a Lannister of Casterly Rock. He could not believe that she would ever do him harm, but . . . I was wrong about Tyrion, why not about Cersei?

[Baelor 'Breakspear']

I think Varys knows, Pycelle has some suspicions and LF knows. LF told something to Stannis (who had already some suspicions) and he later told Arryn, to create chaos. Renly became aware of this or was told by LF most likely

[Headfallsoff]

7 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

His words suggest he did not know. His actions make it clear that he did not know.

If he knew, when he was pleading with Ned to arrest the Queen, who he believed wanted him dead. he'd have told Ned there and then. He did not.

He'd not need a Lyanna alternative to remove Cersei from power if he knew the truth, Robert would execute her.

His family held most of the power at court, his brother King, his other brother Master of Ships, he Master of Law and his nephew the heir of the Throne. The Barathons held the power.

But yeah, his actions are not actually that unusual. Check the French and English courts of the late middle ages, many powerful nobles were trying to arrange new wives/paramours for the monarch so they could hold more power than the Queen's faction.

 

How was he prepared? He panicked when Robert was on his deathbed, wanted Ned to arrest the Queen, take charge of Joffrey and rule the kingdom. When Ned refused he fled the city. This was the actions of someone who knew what was happening beyond the dangers of Cersei being queen meant for him.

No, nothing is clear. There's a good case for Renly knowing and there's a good case for Renly not knowing.

Ned has an aversion to killing children, and Renly was there when he gave up being Hand because he didn't agree with the plan to assassinate Daenerys. So Renly might have thought that if he told Ned the children were incestuous bastards, Ned might think Renly was going to kill them and therefore would not go along with Renly's coup. Or Ned might not believe such a wacky story.

This guy also explains it here: 

https://racefortheironthrone.tumblr.com/post/175782450031/renly-didnt-know-anything-about-incest-idk-why

https://racefortheironthrone.tumblr.com/post/178767438981/about-your-latest-answer-to-renly-knowing-a

I say Renly was prepared because Renly offers Ned a 100 swords immediately. These men either must be very loyal or would have to be informed beforehand, because who would just go along with a treasonous coup to depose the queen on such short notice and without good reason? But if Cersei had committed adultery and incest and her children were bastards, that is a legitimate reason to depose her. Also Loras had 20 in his personal guard which is a lot of men for a third son to have with him, this might have meant that he knew being in KL would be dangerous.

[Tygett Lannister]

On 6/17/2019 at 12:54 AM, Bernie Mac said:

Barristan and Renly did not know.

It was Stannis who told Jon Arryn, not Littlefinger.

We know how Varys knew, he has the best network of spies in the realm.

We don't know when Littlefinger found out, it may have been before or after Stannis.

I never said Barristan knew, as he didn't attend small council. 

Littlefinger definitely had motive to tell Jon Arryn, since it triggers these events:

- Jon Arryn doesn't trusts the Lannisters and doesn't wants to foster Robin with Tywin. 

- Jon Arryn wants to keep Robin safe and sent him to true heir Stannis to foster him. 

- Lysa doesn't wants to have Robin taken away from her so she is motivated to kill Jon Arryn and escape the city. 

If Jon Arryn isn't informed about it he lets Robin stay with Lysa in KL for longer and isn't killed. Stark-Lannister tensions don't happen ect. 

My point was Littlefinger was source of information that the rumor spread on the small council. Littlefinger has a pretty good spy network as well that's how he probably found out. He maybe hinted/told Pycell and Stannis. Stannis told Jon ect. Renly was probably also informed of it but he might not have believed it, considering he wanted to replace Cersei with Margery he probably did. 

 

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Hardly

Kevan reveals he knows the truth. There is no other way to take that final remark. Which Jaime pretty much confirms when he goes to confront Kevan about it.

But he just repeats the stuff from Stannis' letter - he never gives any indication he has proof or more information than everybody has. All he does is actually tell Cersei and Jaime what everybody *knows* or can claim he *knows* at that point, anyway. He no longer cares to pretend - which I interpret as him no longer caring about Tywin's children all that much. Else he would have continued to pretend.

[UnFit Finlay]

On 6/7/2019 at 8:59 PM, Tygett Lannister said:

Everyone on the small council knew because Lord Baelish found out and told everyone (Baratheon brothers, Pycelle, Vayrs already knew and at last Jon Arryn).

Naaah.

There's no way Littlefinger is doing anything that risks putting Stannis on the Throne. That would be his biggest fear and, I'm convinced, is the main reason for his actions throughout the series. He says as much when he tries to convince Ned to rule through Joffrey, at least until they can get rid of Stannis.

12 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Renly must have known, or at least suspected. Or is he so stupid that he would try to repudiate a queen without valid reason and whose family held all the power in court? And he was entirely too prepared for Robert's death if he didn't know.

Erm. We are talking about a guy who tried to seize the Throne from that very same family, even though he no claim at all. The Lannisters had a lot of power *in court* but throughout the realm? They were despised in Dorne and had no chance of support from the Starks, Tullys or Arryns - who were firmly Robert's. Robert marrying Margaery would give him the support of House Tyrell as well. While we know different it'd also be reasonable to assume the Greyjoys would remain loyal, since Ned held Theon.

Tywin was proud but he wasn't an idiot.

Quote

Who would kill Robert if not for the incest?

Loads of folk.

He was the King with an underage heir. Removing him lead to a vacuum of power that other people would have to fill. Robert's death meant that Cersei went from being his trophy wife/punching post to one of the most powerful people in the realm. That's plenty of motivation even if she had no secrets to cover up.

Plus Robert didn't exactly take care of himself. I can completely understand why Renly might be readying himself for Robert's death, even if he didn't suspect foul play.

It's been a while since I've read Clash but doesn't the meeting between Renly, Catelyn and Stannis make it clear that Renly had no idea until Stannis' letter? Even then he thinks Stannis making it up.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Well yeah, I don't think the plan was going to succeed. But they had a plan to remove Cersei either as Queen or her influence over Robert by making another Queen/Paramour to rival her power at court.

But could Robert just up and decide to send Cersie packing? Or does even he need a reason to dispose of his wife of 15 years? I have to believe that Renly and the Tyrells had to be planning on outing Cersei in some way, otherwise all they'd manage to do is send the realm into a tailspin.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I doubt Tyrion knew anything prior to his conversation with Cersei in ACoK and the letter. He certainly may have suspected things, but I don't think there is any evidence that he knew more than, say, that his siblings truly loved each other. This is not the same as knowing/suspecting that they were cuckolding the king and that Cersei's children were Jaime's.

Also, what we know of Stannis makes it very unlikely he would have needed or followed Littlefinger's hints if the man had given him some such - he makes it very clear that he despised Littlefinger and his cronies at court.

And it is not that difficult for Stannis to figure it out. He despised Cersei, and he knew he would be a better king than Robert, so this could easily enough be wishful thinking turning into 'certainty' in his head.

Pycelle also falls in the suspecting category, in my opinion. There is no evidence Cersei/Jaime ever actually told the man who the true father of Robert's children was.

Renly definitely didn't know, and neither did Selmy. If it had been easy to figure out somebody else would have informed Robert a long time ago.

Aegon IV could have just set aside Naerys with a heartbeat - just like Baelor the Blessed freed himself of his sister-wife. The whole accusation thing there was a means not to end his marriage (he liked dominating and fucking Naerys to death) but to ruin her reputation and the reputation of his brother - not to mention to cast doubt on the legitimacy of his son and heir Daeron.

It would have not been that easy to get rid of Cersei, but Robert didn't like her nor her family very much. And he was certainly passionate and reckless enough to not give a damn about Tywin if he had truly found a new Lyanna.

No, Robert would have set Cersei aside. For all we know a king doesn't even need the Faith for that, although the puppet High Septons would have definitely done what the king said. There wouldn't have been a trial or anything of that sort.

Yeah, maybe drop Tyrion into the all-but-certain group. He certainly knew enough to be watching C&J when discussing Bran, and the first time we get that convo with Cersei, he doesn't appear to be all that shocked by it:

Quote

"I do not require your help. It was our father's presence that I commanded."

"Yes," he said quietly, "but it's Jaime you want."

His sister fancied herself subtle, but he had grown up with her. He could read her face like one of this favorite books, and what he read now was rage, and fear, and despair. "Jaime --"

"--is my brother no less than yours."

snip

"I'm sure I don't know. That fool Eddard Stark accused me of the same thing. He hinted that Lord Arryn suspected . . . well, believed . . ."

"That you were fucking our sweet Jaime?"

So it's hard to say when Tyrion puzzled it out, but I doubt he just came to that realization at this moment.

inre Stannis and LF, sure he despises him for his graft and corruption, but that doesn't mean he won't listen to him. They were both members of the small council, and LF has a way of planting ideas into people's heads and making them think they are his own. From LF's PoV, it would make more sense to bring this tale to Stannis first, since he has the most to gain, and I believe there is some text somewhere that had Stannis bring this to Jon Arryn because Robert wouldn't believe it if it came from Stannis. If LF brought this to Arryn, why would he need to involve Stannis in his subsequent investigation?

But yes, there is no evidence that LF was the instigator of this at all, other than the fact that this is exactly the kind of thing he would need to cover his own tracks after the murder.

I think Pycelle's convo with Tyrion pretty much confirms that Pycelle knew all along:

Quote

"And what was Lord Arryn plotting?"

"He knew," Pycelle said. "About . . . about . . ."

"I know what he knew about."

I'm sure Robert could do a great many things by fiat, but if he tried to put Cersei aside just because a younger prettier maid has come along, he would light a fire in the church and across the nobility. Maybe in the end he could have succeeded, but he would be severely weakened politically because the church doesn't appreciate someone, especially kings, tossing its sacraments aside, while the nobility would not want to set a precedent that their politically advantageous marriages could be dissolved on a whim. So even the Tyrells would need to make this a special case in which a long-standing queen has committed such an egregious crime against her king and the realm that she must be removed, and fathering children from your twin brother and passing them off as heirs to the throne would be just the thing. 

[Headfallsoff]

2 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

Naaah.

There's no way Littlefinger is doing anything that risks putting Stannis on the Throne. That would be his biggest fear and, I'm convinced, is the main reason for his actions throughout the series. He says as much when he tries to convince Ned to rule through Joffrey, at least until they can get rid of Stannis.

Erm. We are talking about a guy who tried to seize the Throne from that very same family, even though he no claim at all. The Lannisters had a lot of power *in court* but throughout the realm? They were despised in Dorne and had no chance of support from the Starks, Tullys or Arryns - who were firmly Robert's. Robert marrying Margaery would give him the support of House Tyrell as well. While we know different it'd also be reasonable to assume the Greyjoys would remain loyal, since Ned held Theon.

Tywin was proud but he wasn't an idiot.

Loads of folk.

He was the King with an underage heir. Removing him lead to a vacuum of power that other people would have to fill. Robert's death meant that Cersei went from being his trophy wife/punching post to one of the most powerful people in the realm. That's plenty of motivation even if she had no secrets to cover up.

Plus Robert didn't exactly take care of himself. I can completely understand why Renly might be readying himself for Robert's death, even if he didn't suspect foul play.

It's been a while since I've read Clash but doesn't the meeting between Renly, Catelyn and Stannis make it clear that Renly had no idea until Stannis' letter? Even then he thinks Stannis making it up.

Varys suggests Littlefinger told Stannis:

“He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?”
“Am I suspected? It was not me.”
(...)
“If you were not this whisperer, who was? 
”Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.”
- Tyrion III, ACOK.

The situations are not at all similar. Trying to depose a queen without a strong case against her is very risky and would be hard to pull off, but in ACOK Renly was on his way to win the throne and he would have if it weren't for the shadow baby.

Erm if Robert put aside his wife who did nothing wrong and birthed him three completely healthy heirs just because he got the hots for another girl no one is going to want to support him. That would give the Lannisters a lot of power.

Also read the links I posted up there, Steven Attewell has a solid case for Renly knowing of the incest.

That's actually a good point. But my point about how it wouldn't be easy to convince the nobles to become traitors to the crown simply at Renly's whim still stands.

It's a good idea not to take anything in ASOIAF at face value. It's not like Renly, an adept politician, would have a reason to dismiss the incest claims, nope, it's not like there was an envoy from the North listening in and it's not like he'd want to make it seem like he and Stannis both were usurpers instead of him being a usurper and Stannis the rightful king. His platform rests on his popularity and image is an important part of that.
 

[Headfallsoff]

Also, in this thread there are some good arguments about why Renly might have known: https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/151334-renly-was-a-dummy/

 

[Tygett Lannister]

2 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

Naaah.

There's no way Littlefinger is doing anything that risks putting Stannis on the Throne. That would be his biggest fear and, I'm convinced, is the main reason for his actions throughout the series. He says as much when he tries to convince Ned to rule through Joffrey, at least until they can get rid of Stannis.

Well Littlefinger is well aware of the Stannis' position, which isn't good in terms of becoming a king. He needed to take down the stable rule of Robert. If he was so scared of Stannis becoming a King he would be trying to stabilise Robert's reign not shake it up. Which we can all agree he does with many of his actions. Why would he be giving hints to Ned about the incest, show Robert's bastards ect. 

[UnFit Finlay]

3 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Varys suggests Littlefinger told Stannis:

“He accuses my brother and sister of incest. I wonder how he came by that suspicion.”
“Perhaps he read a book and looked at the color of a bastard’s hair, as Ned Stark did, and Jon Arryn before him. Or perhaps someone whispered it in his ear.” The eunuch’s laugh was not his usual giggle, but deeper and more throaty.
“Someone like you, perchance?”
“Am I suspected? It was not me.”
(...)
“If you were not this whisperer, who was? 
”Some traitor, doubtless.” Varys tightened the cinch.
“Littlefinger?”
“I named no name.”
- Tyrion III, ACOK.

 

Hmm. Good catch.

I suppose that would add to Littlefinger's motives for keeping Stannis away from the Throne - if he's already approached him and been turned down, the same way he did with Ned.

I would've thought Stannis would've mentioned it, however, the only thing I can recall is that he says he told Jon Arryn of his "suspicions". He doesn't moan about Littlefinger anymore than anyone else either. Which you'd think he would if he knew, for a fact, that Littlefinger knew he was telling the truth. Plus I would've thought Littlefinger would be smarter than that.

 

Quote

The situations are not at all similar. Trying to depose a queen without a strong case against her is very risky and would be hard to pull off, but in ACOK Renly was on his way to win the throne and he would have if it weren't for the shadow baby.

Erm if Robert put aside his wife who did nothing wrong and birthed him three completely healthy heirs just because he got the hots for another girl no one is going to want to support him. That would give the Lannisters a lot of power.

 

Seriously? A King divorcing his wife would be harder than Usurpring the Throne with no claim to it at all.

I completely disagree on your second point. "Nobody is going to want to support him"- Not even Ned? The Lord Paramount of the North, who is like a brother to him and hates the Lannisters? Or Jon Arryn? Doran might not support him but he's not siding with Tywin either.

Still, even if that were true, he'd still have the support of Highgarden and Storm's End, which as we saw from Renly's own war was nearly enough to take the Throne.

In all honesty though. Considering how women are treated in the series, I honestly doubt many people would care. Even Tywin, while privately furious, would probably shrug it off in public. Same as he did after Aerys many slights against him.

Quote

That's actually a good point. But my point about how it wouldn't be easy to convince the nobles to become traitors to the crown simply at Renly's whim still stands.

It's a good idea not to take anything in ASOIAF at face value. It's not like Renly, an adept politician, would have a reason to dismiss the incest claims, nope, it's not like there was an envoy from the North listening in and it's not like he'd want to make it seem like he and Stannis both were usurpers instead of him being a usurper and Stannis the rightful king. His platform rests on his popularity and image is an important part of that.

Why though? If anyone wanted Stannis as King then they'd have sided with him anyway. Everybody who followed Renly knew full well that he had no legal right to the Throne from the beginning, yet they still followed him, because they thought he was the best choice. 

On the first point, I think it'd be pretty easy to convince nobles to rebel if they think they'll profit. Look at the Stormlords who rebelled with Renly, went over to Stannis after his death and THEN went over to Joffrey during the Battle of the Blackwater.

[UnFit Finlay]

24 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

Well Littlefinger is well aware of the Stannis' position, which isn't good in terms of becoming a king. He needed to take down the stable rule of Robert. If he was so scared of Stannis becoming a King he would be trying to stabilise Robert's reign not shake it up. Which we can all agree he does with many of his actions. Why would he be giving hints to Ned about the incest, show Robert's bastards ect. 

To use Ned.

Robert wasn't going to live forever, after all, and Littlefinger's position as Master of Coin wasn't exactly iron clad - He was the most minor and least influential of Lords with a hugely important position. Littlefinger "helping" Ned with his investigation and gaining his trust meant that he could manipulate him in the future.

I honestly believe that Baelish was sincere when he encouraged Ned to rule through Joffrey, and things would've turned out differently had Ned agreed. As it was, it really didn't matter, because Littlefinger  had kept his hands clean and was able to use Ned to gain the trust of House Lannister instead. Either way, Stannis was out of the picture.

Plus the cat was already out of the bag at that point. Stannis already knew about Joffrey's real parents. Jon Arryn's death had scared him off but it was only a matter of time before the truth came out. He couldn't hide on Dragonstone forever, after all. Robert would command him to come back and explain himself at some point.

[Ran]

Once you get the idea that Renly wasn't trying to be king in AGoT out of the way, it doesn't matter if "Stannis becomes Robert's heir" because Robert has no problem having offspring (there's literally an infant at the breast as a plot point in AGoT, so he's not gone impotent) and will remarry and have heirs be a new wife in short order once Cersei is gone.

 

Quote

I say Renly was prepared because Renly offers Ned a 100 swords immediately. 

He doesn't offer 100 swords "immediately". He says he can give his personal guard immediately, and in an hour he can get friends and allies to bring more men. He has many friends, is well-liked and charming, is a member of the king's small council and the Lord of Storm's End, so this is not so strange that he can do that -- he is a powerful and influential man! Add to that that he tells them the Hand of the King has need of men to "protect" Prince Joffrey and you'll see men counting how lucky they are to be in the position to do a favor for what will be the two most powerful men at court. 

By way of contrast, the Lannisters are feared and hated to varying degrees, and Cersei has cultivated very few friends at court.

 

Quote

But if Cersei had committed adultery and incest and her children were bastards, that is a legitimate reason to depose her. Also Loras had 20 in his personal guard which is a lot of men for a third son to have with him, this might have meant that he knew being in KL would be dangerous.

She has allegedly had a woman sold into slavery (a capital offense) and allegedly murdered infants. Cause enough to drum up a case against her as a breaker of the king's laws and meriting execution. And worse comes to worse, you just make up stuff (maybe she was fucking Moon Boy, or Meryn Trant, or the Hound...) ... kind of like how she did to Margaery, right?

If you game it out, it's pretty obvious that if Renly knew when Ned came to court, he should have quickly seized the opportunity of Stannis running off to position himself as the loving brother of the king who helped save him and the realm from the perfidious Lannisters by informing the Hand of what was going on and bringing down the Lannisters. Robert and the realm would have owed him a huge debt, and it'd have been easy enough for him to have Robert marry Margaery.

Or you might say he worried Ned was ambitious and would marry Sansa to Robert instead... but then why don't we see Renly actively feeling out this potential powerful pivot point? He goes to him with the locket, why in the world would he not start testing out Ned's interests and views and ambitions? If he had, he would have learned that Ned would probably want quit of the South ASAP, would not have agreed to have Sansa marry someone two decades her elder who's kind of an adopted uncle, etc. So all the more reason to then tell him, and use Ned's backing to get rid of the Lannisters as he wanted, increase his own influence, and arrange the Tyrell dynastic tie that he thought best.

It really makes little sense, really, Renly's behavior in AGoT if he _did_ know about it.

11 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I never said Barristan knew, as he didn't attend small council. 

He sat on the small council as Lord Commander of the Kingsguard. But the "small council" did not all know. I've seen it argued that you'd have to be an idiot to not realize the truth, but I think this is a wild misreading of GRRM's intentions. His _intention_ was that this was _not_ widely known or believed, and only comes out in the course of extraordinary circumstances.

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Littlefinger definitely had motive to tell Jon Arryn, since it triggers these events:

Jon Arryn learned of it from Stannis, not Littlefinger. Stannis served for years on the small council, yet neither he nor Jon Arryn knew until shortly before Jon Arryn's death and the investigation that preceeded it... and Stannis seems to have become suspicious because someone (almost certainly Littlefinger) nudged him towards it.

To go a bit further on Renly, his conversations in ACoK make it quite obvious to me that he didn't know. The common argument for his casting doubt at the parlay, of course, is that if he admits he knew, then he undercuts his claim to the throne. But he says this:

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"All this of snakes and incest is droll, but it changes nothing. You may well have the better claim, Stannis, but I still have the larger army." 

He's genuinely acknowledging that it may indeed be true, the very thing those arguing that he's lying about it say he can't do!

And then the next chapter, when he's speaking to Catelyn:

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Renly was not slow to take the implication. "So you believe the boy caught them at their incest . . ."

This doesn't sound like a guy who's dissembling. He's considering the information she gives him, and thinking about the implications as to Stannis's claim. If he already "knew" it was true, he should shrug it off entirely or deny its validity or truth, but he doesn't. Instead, when he shrugs it off, it's because he's focused on the deciding factor being who is stronger and not who has a "better claim". To him, a king is not king because of the vagaries of blood but instead by being the most powerful person. And generally, this is true to the history of Westeros -- weak kings who are surpassed in might by vassals or rebels are brought down and replaced. Aegon and his sisters overthrew multiple kings, Nymeria overthrew kings, the Hoares overthrew the reigning power in the riverlands when they pushed out the Durrandons, and on and on. 

It's weird, but it seems to me that back before AFfC, the forums were pretty united in reading Renly at face value on this. I think the long wait has tended to lead to more and more conspiratorial readings of events in the novels, more out there theories and more over-thinking of some of the situations and characters.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Yeah, maybe drop Tyrion into the all-but-certain group. He certainly knew enough to be watching C&J when discussing Bran, and the first time we get that convo with Cersei, he doesn't appear to be all that shocked by it:

So it's hard to say when Tyrion puzzled it out, but I doubt he just came to that realization at this moment.

At Winterfell, he quickly realized that his dear siblings may have been behind Bran's fall - because the boy saw or heard something he should not have seen or heard. But that's not the same as him being sure he saw the twins fucking.

Sure, it is certainly possible that always suspected that Cersei and Jaime were a secret romantic couple, but that's not the same as him knowing that this is the case.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

inre Stannis and LF, sure he despises him for his graft and corruption, but that doesn't mean he won't listen to him. They were both members of the small council, and LF has a way of planting ideas into people's heads and making them think they are his own. From LF's PoV, it would make more sense to bring this tale to Stannis first, since he has the most to gain, and I believe there is some text somewhere that had Stannis bring this to Jon Arryn because Robert wouldn't believe it if it came from Stannis. If LF brought this to Arryn, why would he need to involve Stannis in his subsequent investigation?

But yes, there is no evidence that LF was the instigator of this at all, other than the fact that this is exactly the kind of thing he would need to cover his own tracks after the murder.

I'd say both Littlefinger and Varys (the latter is the true master of the art of planting an idea in somebody's head without them even realizing that they were manipulated) have no motive telling Stannis anything - because if Robert buys that story Stannis will become presumptive heir to the Iron Throne until Robert fathers some trueborn children, and that's the last thing either of them wants.

And Littlefinger helped Lysa to poison her husband - he wouldn't have done that had he also pointed Stannis to Jaime/Cersei's secret romance. Or rather: he would have, perhaps, only done it after Stannis/Jon had talked with Robert about that. Because that would have been his goal had he given Stannis a hint.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I think Pycelle's convo with Tyrion pretty much confirms that Pycelle knew all along.

The issue with Pycelle is that this is post hoc - long after Stannis' letter arrived at the Red Keep. Is Pycelle actually referring to knowledge he definitely had when Jon Arryn was dying, or does he just refer to a suspicion he may have had back then which, in his mind, were effectively confirmed by Stannis' letter and Cersei's subsequent actions? We don't know.

True knowledge would imply Cersei actually told Pycelle that the king's children weren't the king's children - and she would have never done that. Varys may have such knowledge, but pretty much nobody else. And Pycelle himself cites Cersei's fear of Varys as a reason why Cersei never actually told him to murder Jon Arryn - which could actually imply that the old man is even imagining things, reading meaning into unspoken words and 'meaningful stares' that was never actually there.

In that sense, I think we can conclude Pycelle's knowledge in AGoT and before was also just a suspicion. Although one can assume that he - and others - grew more convinced as things progressed. First Jon's sudden death (orchestrated by Cersei in Pycelle's mind), then Ned's investigation and his words in front of the court immediately before his arrest, etc. - this certainly should help many smart people to come to a conclusion they would call 'informed'. But all that is not proof - Cersei could just act the way she does because she fears that those rumors are going to ruin herself and her family. And it is clear they would destroy them all considering that the truth of the matter is irrelevant - what's clear is that Robert doesn't love her and would very likely be inclined to side with Jon or Ned against her, never mind whether she actually has an affair with Jaime or not.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm sure Robert could do a great many things by fiat, but if he tried to put Cersei aside just because a younger prettier maid has come along, he would light a fire in the church and across the nobility. Maybe in the end he could have succeeded, but he would be severely weakened politically because the church doesn't appreciate someone, especially kings, tossing its sacraments aside, while the nobility would not want to set a precedent that their politically advantageous marriages could be dissolved on a whim. So even the Tyrells would need to make this a special case in which a long-standing queen has committed such an egregious crime against her king and the realm that she must be removed, and fathering children from your twin brother and passing them off as heirs to the throne would be just the thing. 

The thing is, we know that Cersei feared that something like that would happen in AGoT. That makes it a realistic scenario. And we have no reason to believe that setting aside a wife is a difficult task for a king, nor that this would necessarily provoke opposition from the Faith.

And we don't have to assume that setting aside Cersei would have resulted in her and Robert's children becoming bastards - Robert could have kept them as his children and heirs while simply taking a new young wife.