Just how many people knew about the incest?

[Bernie Mac]

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

If the Tyrells just waited 5 years, Tommen would be 13 and Margaery 19, I don't think she would be infertile then. And are you really arguing that Margaery being older would make it more dangerous for her to go through pregnancy?  They also married Tommen to her later anyway. And the marriage itself would bring them power.

I never claimed she would be infertile then, I'm saying her window of heirs decreases. In GRRM's world the women marry young, they start procreating young.

Having Margaery sit on the shelf for another 5/6/7 years is not in the Tyrells best interests and more importantly there was zero suggestion from either the Tyrells or Robert that such a marriage was on the cards.

I get that you want to be right, but many of your arguments to keep the discussion alive are not things that were ever suggested in the books.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

OK, but it's a factor which supports that he might have known.

How does it support that he might have known?

His words and actions heavily indicate that he did not know.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Littlefinger might have told him, or he might have figured it out like how Stannis might have figured it out.

If Littlefinger told him why would Renly not tell Ned? Why would he not use that information to have Cersei arrested?

Being unfaithful to the king is treason, that is enough to remove Cersei from power. Why does he not do this when he is telling Ned that Cersei is a threat to the both of them?

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

He wouldn't tell Ned because: Ned would immediately tell Robert, and there is the danger that Robert would abdicate for Stannis, there is the danger Robert marries someone else, there is the danger Ned himself marries Sansa to Robert.

Robert was on his deathbed, Renly scared of Cersei taking over, pleading with Ned to arrest Cersei and prevent her from taking power.

It makes zero sense him not telling Ned in that positon.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

If Ned was told of the twincest, it's natural he would assume the children are bastards as well.

Is it? If he was told Cat slept with someone would he assume all his children were bastards?

In the event of a death Ned would need to bring it to a Great Council, where Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella, Edric, Stannis and Renly would all get to make their case to be king/Queen.

There is no reason for Renly to remain silent.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

I don't think Loras has the mind of a politician.

No, but he has a mind. He's not a simpleton.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

I don't dislike Renly, in fact I like him so...

I'm sure you do, but for the last 7 years many people who are hardcore Stannis fans have been spamming the community on why Renly did know. 7 years takes its toll, I guarantee you might not be directly a Stannis fan but your positon on this argument will have been influenced by it. Your earlier citation of Reddit proves my point, Reddit is an echo chamber, popular opinions get upvoted, unpopular ones get downvoted.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Yeah that's cause he hadn't consummated.

At no point in the text is that given the reason.

Can you not see what you are doing? First you say that being put aside is not an option, when the text proves it is an option you then move the goal posts and give another reason (not supported by the text).

Rather than have an unbiased view on the topic you are looking for reasons why it's wrong.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Alys was Maegor's second wife. He was told to put her aside because he couldn't legally get rid of his first wife and their marriage was seen as a sin.

No, her father told him to put his wife aside because he wanted his daughter to be Queen.

But if you want yet other examples there are other examples with Daemon Targareyn (the Rogue Prince) and Duncan Targaryen

Viserys soon heard of it. And whatever version of the tale was true, we do know that Daemon asked for Rhaenyra's hand, if only Viserys would set aside his marriage to Lady Rhea. Viserys refused

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was true that Aegon had been a friend to the smallfolk, had practically grown up among them, but to countenance the marriage of the heir to the throne to a commoner of uncertain birth was beyond him. His Grace did all he could to have the marriage undone, demanding that Duncan put Jenny aside.

 

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

But he didn't love her, so why didnt he agree? There must have been consequences.

Come on. Aegon IV did not care about consequences, he tried to start a war with Dorne and legitimized all his bastards.

He simply did not need to remarry again as he frequently changed paramour.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Renly had a claim because he was Robert's brother and Robert had a claim through his Targaryen blood. But Tywin doesn't have any claim. And Renly had 80,000 men. He was definitely going to win.

He didn't though. So claiming he 'definitely' was going to win is false, in the books we have he did not win. He had a very good chance of winning, there is a difference.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

But it would be very hard to convince The Tyrells, is the thing. If Renly was working in isolation I could buy it but he was working with the tyrells.

Not sure your point here. Why would it be very hard to convince the Tyrells? What part of the books are you basing your knowledge of the Tyrells on?

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

You do realize 2 out of the 5 kings were usurpers because of Robert's precedent?

Did they sit on the Iron Throne? No, they attempted to usurp the throne and failed.

24 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Really? Robb thought he could put aside his Frey wife after the war? I don't remember that.

During the war he had no problem putting aside the betrothal he had agreed upon, the betrothal that possibly almost a thousand Frey men lost their lives for.

 

[Bernie Mac]

3 minutes ago, RYShh said:

 

Why are we assuming that Kevan knows all of Tywin's secrets? I am pretty sure Tywin had his own secrets that even Kevan didn't know about.

It is a fair assumption given the closeness of their relationship, Kevan's loyalty and his positon as his no2.

3 minutes ago, RYShh said:

I think Tywin knew that he couldn't gain any ally from the Riverlands since the Tully girls were married to the Vale and the North, so weakening them before the main conflict seems like a better idea.

Sure he could. It is well established that the Riverlands is the most fractured kingdom in terms of leadership. They have been divided in most wars, allies were a real possibility there.

3 minutes ago, RYShh said:

Which children of Tywin could marry?

I never claimed his children. I was pretty clear on who I meant. Come on, is there any need for this type of cheap point scoring?

3 minutes ago, RYShh said:

 

His cousins are almost irrelevant since they can wait forever to be an heir to the Casterly Rock.

That is not how feudalism works. Many second cousins had high profile marriages, think of Catherin Howard, she was from a daughter of a younger brother of Lord Howard and she married a King.

Or think of Stannis' marriage, Selyse's father is a younger brother of Lord Florent.

On Tywin's uncle Jason's side of the family we know that his granddaughter Lanna was married to Lord Jast while his son Stafford before the war had been negotiating a marriage with the only daughter of Lord Redwyne.

Families that are prestigious and rich will be able to marry many members of their extended family to other high profile nobles. Check out the Tyrell family tree for another example.  Victaria Tyrel is a distant cousin to Mace and yet she is married to Lord Bulwer.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

That is never claimed. He simply did not care. Naerys wanted to be put aside, Aegon IV did not.

When Prince Daeron was born on the last day of 153 AC, Grand Maester Alford warned that another pregnancy might kill her. Naerys was said to address her brother thus: "I have done my duty by you, and given you an heir. I beg you, let us live henceforth as brother and sister." We are told that Aegon replied: "That is what we are doing." Aegon continued to insist his sister perform her wifely duties for the rest of her life.    

His paramours lived at court with him, he did not care about marrying them.

I'd say he never dared marrying either of them, because I honestly think that royal polygamy wasn't an issue the Faith/public of Westeros were willing to condone after Maegor the Cruel. Especially not a rather calculating and somewhat cowardly man like Aegon IV - who could have disinherited his ingrate heir in favor of one of his bastards but chose not to do so because he knew it would mean trouble for him. I'd say that chances are pretty high that many of Aegon's mistresses - especially those he had after becoming king - aimed at a proper marriage, trying to push him to follow in Aegon's and Maegor's footsteps - but for some reason he chose not to do this.

And I honestly doubt that the reason for that was that he wasn't inclined doing that. It was because he knew that meant trouble.

4 hours ago, Ran said:

And this is very much true as well. Renly was a flawed figure who leapt to a crown he wanted because he had an excuse -- protecting himself -- and that's the sort of thing I negatively judge Stannis for (for abandoning Robert and ignoring Ned's efforts to contact him; had he told Ned, Ned would have played the same role as Jon Arryn did ... but Stannis had such a huge chip on his shoulder about Ned that he preferred to leave him and Robert to the lions rather than doing his duty) and the sort of thing I negatively judge Jaime for (for killing Aerys rather than doing the minimum needed to stop his mad plan while following the spirit of his vows). Renly is definitely an usurper. But he didn't know, because the conversations he has and the details around it show that he didn't. You have to ignore the evidence of Renly's and Stannis's conversation, and Renly's conversation with Catelyn, to cook up this idea that he had to know about it.

I think I made a good case up there somewhere that 'Renly protecting himself' is little more than a bad excuse/rationalization. The man had the Stormlands and, through Loras, the Reach, he was one of the most powerful - or the most powerful - man in the Seven Kingdoms after his royal brother died. Once he decided to involve himself in the succession struggle at court he certainly had to go to prevent becoming a hostage, but once he was with his own men, surrounded by his own swords, he basically could have become a Kingmaker rather than a usurper if he had wanted to do that. He controlled so much swords in Westeros that any pretender - Joffrey, Stannis, even Robb and Balon could have come knocking at his door.

But this really wasn't something he wanted to do - just as he didn't want to work with Stannis - or ask him for his opinion. 

We don't have to judge him all that harshly for this kind of thing - it is not all that uncommon. We have the Arryn succession struggles in FaB (Jonos and during the Regency), the ambitions of Cregan's uncle and Arnolf Karstark, Aenys Blackfyre trying to steal the throne of his nephew Daemon III - and, of course, the example set by Robert Baratheon himself - who essentially became king the same was Renly tried to pull it.

We can argue that the rebellion against the Mad King was a justified uprising against a tyrant within the Westerosi legal framework, but Robert's usurpation of the throne was wrong. That the rebels put him on the throne rather than Viserys III - who as an innocent child had basically no hand in his father's crimes - is wrong - as was, of course, the manner in which Robert finally took the throne (sack and murder of children).

There was no need for the rebels to put forth a pretender of their own - they could have just dealt with the Mad King and his mad heir to then turn to the next in line - or call a Great Council to decide the succession.

It is this example of Robert's - that his war hammer was his claim, basically - that Renly uses to justify his own bid for the throne.

And, yeah, you are spot on on Stannis there. Stannis is jealous of Robert's 'chosen brother' Ned, that's why he tells anyone who (doesn't) want(s) to hear it that Eddard Stark was no friend of his. And how hurt Stannis is about Robert not loving him the way he wanted to be loved can be seen in ADwD when the man gets pissed when Asha mentions Robert's stratagems to win battles and recruit people to his cause. Only a man with a lot of family issues would actually react the way he does when somebody mentions the accomplishments of his brother.

And as for Jaime - Jaime killed Aerys II because he wanted to, not because he wanted to save anyone. He actually had already prevented the execution of the wildfire plot by killing Rossart. That was enough. If he wanted to be sure he had prevented it he could have gone into the throne room to ask Aerys whether he had sent other envoys to the pyromancers as a backup - just to play it safe. But he didn't even ask that when he killed Aerys II, did he?

There was no need to reveal that to the man and then gleefully cutting his throat - especially since the Lannister men were essentially already knocking at the door. This is the deed of a man who chose to slay his king in a situation where he felt he could do it and get away - and we know he wanted to get away with it because he actually never wanted to take responsibility for the killing. He wanted the death of Aerys II to be as mysterious as the death of Maegor the Cruel. It is actually a very cowardly thing to do, and no moral dilemma at all. Even if Jaime had been so afraid for the lives of his father, the Westermen, and all the poor Kingslander he could just as well have knocked out Aerys II, arrested him, injured him, etc. There was no need to kill him. On a certain level, one can understand why he did it - being a young man witnessing so many dreadful things - but Jaime knew what he was signing up for. He knew what kind of man this king was and he did it all the same.

But I digress.

Regarding what Tywin knows:

I feel that leads nowhere. Tywin is a huge black hole insofar as his feelings for his family are concerned. Even after the letters his focus is only on keeping up appearances - Cersei has to take another husband. We don't know what he actually believed and why. One could, perhaps, interpret his desire to make Tommen his ward at Casterly Rock as a sign that he sees him as a full-blooded Lannister, but that's just a guess. Considering Tywin's own deep love for Joanna - who could basically have grown up at his side like a sister - I doubt he was abhorred or, in his heart, opposed to his children taking it one step further. But he certainly was not happy about the problems this entire thing caused.

But it is just speculation - we have no idea what he knew or believed about this thing. Joanna's fear what Tywin might do if he knew his twins were having sex has to be seen in context of the age of the children at the time (five!). He would have taught them 'a lesson' since his plans for them were to marry into the royal family (Cersei) and to continue the Lannister line (Jaime). They couldn't do that together, and the very rumor that they were an incest couple could lead to their disgrace.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

If Renly was going to grab the heirs, wouldnt he have to fight the goldcloaks because they were Lannister soldiers.

No, the goldcloaks are the City Watch. Those men are stationed in the garrisons in the city, not the Red Keep itself. They are only there after Robert's death because Ned invited them and allowed them in. If Ned and Renly had teamed up they would have only to deal with the Cersei's personal Lannister guardsmen - the redcloaks - who are stationed in the Red Keep just as Ned's own household guard is. Meaning the fighting could have been over very quickly and things could have been decided while Robert was still dying.

The way authority goes in this world made it pretty much impossible for Cersei to move against Ned while he was still Robert's Hand and Robert was still alive, if only barely. Because the only men she could properly and legally command were her own retainers and household guard. Even the Kingsguard would technically be obliged to obey the Hand, who speaks with the King's Voice, rather than the queen. We can be sure Sandor and the redcloaks and some of Cersei's other retainers would have defended her, but if Renly and Ned had acted swift and with enough men they could easily have won that little skirmish.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Because that also increases his own power.

"By doing this (getting rid of Cersei and getting Robert a better wife), he becomes Robert's golden boy, making him the most powerful man at court. Anything he wants he gets. Not to mention Margaery, who'll be Renly's ally, will be whispering in Robert's ear. With Robert's passive attitude towards ruling, Renly will be the most powerful man in all the Seven Kingdoms."

Renly is already the king's brother and on the king's council. Sure, he isn't Hand (yet), but he is pretty much at the top of the hierarchy insofar as both power and status are concerned. Getting rid of Cersei would rid him of a rival, but I really don't see how this would increase his own power to a meaningful degree.

And Cersei doesn't really have much power at court, at least not insofar as the government of the Realm is concerned. She knows how to get from Robert what she wants, true, but Robert isn't ruling the Seven Kingdoms. And he definitely isn't Cersei's errand boy, convincing the council to enact Cersei's policies.

In that sense I'd say the Margaery plan has more to do with Renly wanting to get rid of Cersei than to increase his own influence at court - or only increase it insofar as Cersei being gone would increase it.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

"It changes the power dynamics of court. He's not only the king's brother but someone known to be intimately close to the new royal line. Once Robert's gone, the Lannisters will have all the influence, and since we know they hate him, he'll be in a precarious position. 

Robert could have lived another 15-20 years - his lifestyle ensured he would not get that old, but he sure as hell could have lived into his late forties or even early fifties - and if that were the case then Lannister influence would no longer be an issue. Tywin would likely be dead already, somebody less competent/impressive would rule Casterly Rock (possibly Jaime or Cersei), and Joffrey Baratheon would be a grown man with a wife and children of his own, changing the power dynamics at court even more.

Renly was never preparing for his brother's death.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Putting a more favorable family in power keeps him politically relevant and elevates him as people wanting to get in with the new queen might look to him. Medieval (and by extension Westerosi) politics are all about personal ties, so having been an instrumental part of gaining them the throne means lots of rewards from the Tyrells (lands, offices, honors, incomes and everything else that comes with such favoritism).

Really not sure what favors Renly of all people could still want. He is a third son and a great lord of the Realm in his own right, thanks to his brother's careless generosity.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

GRRM said the Margaery in the show is what book Margaery would be like is she's older. So on some level she is manipulative and ambitious and wants to be queen. She manipulated both Sansa and Tommen.

George's Margaery is not the show Margaery, not even the show Margaery much, much older. We know pretty much nothing about George's Margaery Tyrell. Littlefinger claims she doesn't care much about either her maidenhead or being queen, but she will keep both. That's basically the description of a pawn. Now, perhaps Littlefinger is wrong there, but if he were then we basically have nothing on Margaery's true character. The only other glimpse of 'the true Margaery' are her last words to Cersei in AFfC, but her knowing what Cersei truly is doesn't make her a political genius or competent plotter.

We can say she is definitely part of the Tyrell machine as run by her grandmother behind the scenes - she certainly got the script for the Purple Wedding, but that also goes for Garlan (who I think actually put the Strangler into the chalice), Alerie (who immediately pushed the 'he choked to death' accident explanation for Joff's death), and even Mace (who ensured nobody would suspect them by playing up the fact that his daughter had been nearly poisoned, putting pressure on Tywin by demanding Tyrion's head) - but this doesn't mean she has her own agenda, just that she can play the role very well her family has chosen for her.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Maybe you're right. But I think a large part of Stannis' inaction is just a plot hole to keep the Lannisters in power.

See above. And think some more on Stannis always repeating that Ned wasn't his friend. That's suspicious.

George didn't have to introduce Stannis as this guy who knew what Jon Arryn was investigating, by the way. He could have only learned of/deduced what was going on after Robert's death. But that's not how things are.

Stannis is a great character, but there is a lot of darkness in him which makes it attractive for him to use Melisandre's methods in the first place. Note that Stannis did obviously not punish Mel for the death of Cressen. Sure, Cressen wanted to kill Melisandre, but Mel took steps to prevent that. She could have told Stannis what the old man was up to - either she did not, or Stannis did not care that she did not after the fact. Because there is no way he did not ask her about why he died and she lived.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Margaery was Loras' sister. And Renly stayed a bachelor at an age where by all rights he should have been married off, perhaps hinting that he didn't desire marriage for himself.

Edmure Tully is still a bachelor at a much older age, as are Brynden Tully, Arianne Martell, and Tyrion Lannister. Plenty of lords don't marry early. In fact, many Targaryens marry rather early compared to some of their lords.

In FaB we get a lot of strange bachelors/childless widowers - Rogar Baratheon is in his thirties in 48 AC, and he didn't remarry after the death of his wife. When he marries Queen Alyssa in 49 AC he chooses a wife who is not likely to give him any heirs. That's not an issue. Boremund Baratheon is still a bachelor in 80 AC when Queen Alysanne present him as suitor to her daughter, Princess Daella. Lord Boremund is 28 years old in that year. Tyland Lannister and Larys Strong are unmarried during the Dance (rather odd for a man like Larys who is a lord himself). And so on.

But what is crystal clear is that ambitious men and women jump at the chance of a great match no matter what personal inclinations they have. Being gay or not being attracted to a potential spouse doesn't matter if said spouse could advance yourself or your house. And marrying a queen dowager and becoming the king's stepfather is basically the best match a man could possibly hope for.

In fact, Cersei's focus on Jaime prevented her from using herself as coin to make a powerful alliance - at least up to this point (I've long argued that she will eventually become Euron's queen) - Alyssa Velaryon had no such scruples.

And thinking about that - one really hopes George gives some of his historical queens the chance to repeat Alyssa's stunt. Daenaera Velaryon is so much younger than her husband, she could outlive Aegon III to take a second or even a third husband. And Shaera Targaryen could do a similar thing. George doesn't have to kill her to get her out of KL - have her marry some Lysene or Volantene nobleman could do the trick, too.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

OK, never said Renly acted out of fear for his life. Its clear he likes attention and wants to be king mostly for that reason.

And likely also because he liked the power that comes with being king. Renly clearly knows what he wants. He is very friendly and likable but it is clear that he wanted Robb to weaken the Lannisters so he has just to clean things up afterwards, just as he made it very clear that he would never accept the independence of the North and the Riverlands.

[Headfallsoff]

7 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

I never claimed she would be infertile then, I'm saying her window of heirs decreases. In GRRM's world the women marry young, they start procreating young.

Having Margaery sit on the shelf for another 5/6/7 years is not in the Tyrells best interests and more importantly there was zero suggestion from either the Tyrells or Robert that such a marriage was on the cards.

I get that you want to be right, but many of your arguments to keep the discussion alive are not things that were ever suggested in the books.

How does it support that he might have known?

His words and actions heavily indicate that he did not know.

If Littlefinger told him why would Renly not tell Ned? Why would he not use that information to have Cersei arrested?

Being unfaithful to the king is treason, that is enough to remove Cersei from power. Why does he not do this when he is telling Ned that Cersei is a threat to the both of them?

Robert was on his deathbed, Renly scared of Cersei taking over, pleading with Ned to arrest Cersei and prevent her from taking power.

It makes zero sense him not telling Ned in that positon.

Is it? If he was told Cat slept with someone would he assume all his children were bastards?

In the event of a death Ned would need to bring it to a Great Council, where Joffrey, Tommen, Myrcella, Edric, Stannis and Renly would all get to make their case to be king/Queen.

There is no reason for Renly to remain silent.

No, but he has a mind. He's not a simpleton.

I'm sure you do, but for the last 7 years many people who are hardcore Stannis fans have been spamming the community on why Renly did know. 7 years takes its toll, I guarantee you might not be directly a Stannis fan but your positon on this argument will have been influenced by it. Your earlier citation of Reddit proves my point, Reddit is an echo chamber, popular opinions get upvoted, unpopular ones get downvoted.

At no point in the text is that given the reason.

Can you not see what you are doing? First you say that being put aside is not an option, when the text proves it is an option you then move the goal posts and give another reason (not supported by the text).

Rather than have an unbiased view on the topic you are looking for reasons why it's wrong.

No, her father told him to put his wife aside because he wanted his daughter to be Queen.

But if you want yet other examples there are other examples with Daemon Targareyn (the Rogue Prince) and Duncan Targaryen

Viserys soon heard of it. And whatever version of the tale was true, we do know that Daemon asked for Rhaenyra's hand, if only Viserys would set aside his marriage to Lady Rhea. Viserys refused

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It was true that Aegon had been a friend to the smallfolk, had practically grown up among them, but to countenance the marriage of the heir to the throne to a commoner of uncertain birth was beyond him. His Grace did all he could to have the marriage undone, demanding that Duncan put Jenny aside.

 

Come on. Aegon IV did not care about consequences, he tried to start a war with Dorne and legitimized all his bastards.

He simply did not need to remarry again as he frequently changed paramour.

He didn't though. So claiming he 'definitely' was going to win is false, in the books we have he did not win. He had a very good chance of winning, there is a difference.

Not sure your point here. Why would it be very hard to convince the Tyrells? What part of the books are you basing your knowledge of the Tyrells on?

Did they sit on the Iron Throne? No, they attempted to usurp the throne and failed.

During the war he had no problem putting aside the betrothal he had agreed upon, the betrothal that possibly almost a thousand Frey men lost their lives for.

 

Cersei had children in her 20s. Cat also had the majority of her children in her 20s. 

All possibilities have to be explored. It would be much better for the Tyrells to try to betroth Margaery to Tommen instead of Robert, because her life would not be in danger and there's no risk involved, and it would also be much easier to do. It would help the two Houses reconcile after the rebellion and add another source of income to the crown.

Because Renly might have made the connection that all the Baratheons he has met have black hair and blue eyes unlike the Lannisters who have blonde hair and green eyes.

So why exactly would Ned believe Renly? Renly has no evidence without mentioning the bastards, and even if he did mention the kids, it's still a hard story to buy. If he just said Cersei was cheating on the king that carries no weight. If you think about it, if Renly really was counting on baseless accusations he must already have falsified accounts or something like that, or if he was counting on the terrible rumours about her, he could have mentioned them to Ned to get him on his side. But he doesn't. So I don't think this is proof Renly didn't know. I'm also sure Renly suspected it was the Lannisters who killed Robert, he could have told Ned of his suspicions.

And if Ned was told Cersei was fucking her brother it isn't hard to see the resemblance between Jaime and Joffrey, or Myrcella and Cersei and how none of them have Robert's traits.

Well I'm not a Stannis fan and it seems you're taking this very personally.

No, Aerys I did not have any children with his wife and there were rumours he didnt consummate. Thats why the Council wanted him to put his wife aside.

Also, about Maegor:

"Maegor quarreled bitterly with his brother, King Aenys, while Ceryse's father, Lord Martyn Hightower, demanded that Maegor set Alys aside. The High Septon denounced the marriage as sin and fornication and called Alys "this whore of Harroway." Many of the pious lords in the realm began to follow his example, openly referring to Alys as "Maegor's Whore". Maegor remained defiant, however, citing that his father had taken two wives as well, claiming that the strictures of the Faith did not rule the blood of the dragon.[1]

Feeling he had no other option,[6] Aenys furiously gave Maegor a choice: set Alys aside or go into exile for five years."

The problem with the marriage is that it was not legitimate because it was his second wife. It wasn't a case of the first wife being set aside for the second, it was the opposite.

Here also, Viserys refused to do so. And the marriage produced no children so a case could be made that it was never consummated.

Duncan and Jenny's marriage also produced no children.

Naerys was very sickly and a second birth could have killed her. Cersei was healthy and had the ability go produce more heirs.  And Aegon was also known as Aegon the Unworthy, and started a series of succession wars which killed thousands. I'm sure the people wouldn't like to see a repeat of that with Margaery's children with Robert, who was planned to be queen and not mistress anyway.

The examples here seem to show marriages have only ended when there was a possibility of non consummation, the couple had no children or if the wife could produce no more heirs, or if it wasn't legal. Renly who is politically astute was trying to replace Cersei when she had committed adultery and incest, ie treason, for years, maybe that's a coincidence but is it really.

That's also another thing, why would Mace feel comfortable with the marriage if Cersei was put aside merely cause Robert didn't like her? That would mean he could do the same to Margaery. Or if they were planning to delegitimize the Lannister children who's saying that he wouldn't do that to Margaery's children as well? And if they were planning on killing the kids that would look very suspicious, I mean a queen and her heirs disappearing after a new queen takes her place? Yeah I'm sure no one would puzzle that out. And there's also the danger of assassination for Margaery and her kids - I'm sure Tywin won't be above it.

It could be that they were planning to get Cersei killed, but if it was that easy I'm sure Tywin would have tried with Elia.

He had a very good chance of winning, but he had a poor chance of putting Cersei aside when the marriage produced three children and Robert owed the Lannisters money.

Yes, and that would mean he would know how much danger the plan would place Margaery in.

Nah there's actually a lot of people who think Renly didn't know on Reddit. 

I admitted that it was possible the Renly and the Tyrells were greedy and reckless and didn't know about the incest. :V 

The part where Mace cares for his children deeply. The part where Mace is shown to be cautious (like when he sieged Storms End in a tactic that would end in his probably not getting executed whichever side won the war). The part where Margaery is their only marriageable daughter. The part where its explicitly said in the letter that the plan was for Margaery to be queen. The part where Olenna mentioned Mace always wanted his grandchildren on the throne.

"Those who argue that the Tyrells would simply try to displace Cersei’s children with Margaery’s children miss a vital point: there would be no legal means of doing so. When the Hightowers attempted to replace the Arryns in the succession during the reign of Viserys I, they could argue that a male child comes before a female child; when Unwin Peake sought to replace Queen Jaehaera with his own daughter, Jaehaera and King Aegon III had had no issue; when the Hightowers and the Harroways and Tyanna of the Tower attempted to supplant one another in the succession through Maegor, they did so because Maegor had no heirs."

Re: Renly acting out of self preservation.

But how would Renly know Cersei would want to get rid of him? And if he fears for his life and dislikes Cersei he could marry some Lannister cousin. He doesn't. 

Cersei was manipulative and controlling of Robert. So if Renly removes her, he gains more influence with Robert and can fill the power gap after Cersei's appointees are gone with his own men.

So it was probably that Renly struck first, by trying to elevate both himself and the Tyrells, and that's why he feared Cersei would get rid of him later. 

https://goodqueenaly.tumblr.com/post/153783396353/what-did-renly-think-he-would-gain-if-he-was-able 

If some random family gained power it would be the same as when the Lannisters held all the power, it wouldn't profit Renly at all.

They failed because of unforeseen circumstances. Faceless men and shadow babies.

Yeah, and it cost him his life. And he also didn't plan on it, he did it because he was too honorable.

And I've argued too much about this, this is my last post.

[Megorova]

Varys probably found out about it back in 281, approximately around that time, when Jaime became a Kingsguard. I think that years ago Littlefinger was one of Varys' people. Varys does have other agents, besides his Little Birds. And Petyr's personal sigil is a mockingbird. So, in my opinion, it's a symbol of Petyr's betrayal and his victory over his ex-master (Varys), whom he outsmarted, and went independant, to play his own Game of Thrones, instead of just being one of Varys' pawns.

So LF knew about JxC, because Varys knew. LF found out about this, when he was still working for Varys. Varys was planning to use this information to begin a civil war at 7K (when fAegon will be older), to make them weaker and easier to invade. He wanted to prepare a foundation for fAegon and Golden Company. Years later, in 296, Varys had added Dany and Dothraki into his plan. The wedding happened in early 298. So the invasion was probably planned to happen in 300.

Though LF had separated from Varys several years ago, some time after he became the Master of Coin. Probably the reason of his betrayal were his ambitions. He managed to become Master of Coin, thanks to his affair with Lysa Arryn, not thanks to Varys. And Varys probably was intending to give that title to Harry Strickland, after fAegon would have became King of 7K, and Varys became the King's Hand. So to get his own significant place at Aegon's court, Littlefinger launched Varys' plan several years prior previously planned date, and he had added several of his own elements into the original plan. Such as death of Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon, fall of House Stark, Red Wedding, Purple Wedding, getting Sansa Stark under his control, to later offer her to fAegon (because, with death of her family, Sansa became a key to three kingdoms - The North, The Vale and Riverlands). And maybe later he planned for Sansa to poison her husband, the King fAegon, and then was going to marry with her, and to become a King of 7K (similar to what he did with Jon and Lysa, and became Lord of The Vale and Warden of the East).

So when Varys arranged Dany's wedding with Khal Drogo, Littlefinger launched his own plan. He hinted to Jon Arryn that Cersei's children are not Robert's. So Jon started his investigation, because he couldn't just accuse the Queen in adultery, while he had no evidences. So while he was gathering those evidences, LF probably adviced him to share this information with Stannis, in case if something will happen to Jon. Because Stannis was the Prince of Dragonstone, and if Cersei's children were bastards, then Stannis was Robert's heir (or at least that was, what Jon thought, same as Ned after him).

At the same time Littlefinger informed Renly about what's going on. Probably he convinced Renly, that Renly and not Stannis should be the one, who will deal with this situation. He influenced Renly into thinking, that he is Robert's heir and not Stannis, because Robert made Renly Lord of Stormlands, even though Stannis was an older brother. And LF suggested to Renly to arrange marriage between Margaery Tyrell and Robert, after Robert will get rid of Cersei and her children. If that's how it all happened, then LF suggested it to Renly because of two reasons - because Renly had connections to Tyrells (thru Loras), and because (in my opinion) part of Varys' original plan was to get for Blackfyres support of The Reach, thru marriage between fAegon and Margaery Tyrell. So LF made sure to spoil this part of Varys' plan, first by scheming marriage between Robert and Margaery (though he wasn't going to let it actually happen, that would have ended everything too soon. So instead LF had hinted to Cersei, that she's in danger, and she got Robert killed), then he married Margaery to Joffrey (and from the books it is obvious, that LF had planned Joffrey's death by Tyrells, when he went to negotiate with them about alliance of Lannisters and Tyrells, months before the wedding), and then he married her to Tommen, all of which prevented Tyrells from providing any support to Varys.

 

Thus, Littlefinger knew about incest, because Varys knew. Jon Arryn, Stannis, Renly, Pycelle, and Lysa had found out about this from Littlefinger, because it was all part of his plan. This information for over 10 years was kept by Varys as a secret, because it was his trump card, that he was planning to use in a right time, when fAegon will be old enough to invade 7K. So the only people that knew about it were Varys and Littlefinger, and Illyrion Mopatis, and that Little Bird that saw JxC, and got this info to Varys (though after that Varys probably killed that Little Bird, to assure that that information will remain a secret).

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Cersei had children in her 20s. Cat also had the majority of her children in her 20s. 

Not to be rude, but do you have issues with reading comprehension? At no point have I stated that women can not have children in their 20's.

What I did say is that in the middle ages, there was a shorter window for childbirth from a Lady, what with miscarriages and infant mortality that window decreased. That is not to say that every woman can not give birth after a certain age but the accepted thought of the day was to marry early.

As I mentioned in another post the actual middle ages did think like this but GRRM seems to have took a step further in his fictional universe with most noble women marrying and procreating while still a teenager.

So a marriage between a 14 year old girl and an 8 year boy is rare. We have 300 years of Westeros history with the ages of many, many marriages. Maegor's marriage seems to be the only one I can think of that ended in disaster.  I'm just pointing this out. If something is rare it is not likely to happen, not that it is impossible.

In the series Tywin did not want that marriage happen, he wanted Jaime to marry Margaery instead as he wanted an heir between their two Houses ASAP. The Tyrells, holding all the power, were able to demand Tommen in that situation.

From what we know of Robert and Cersei they were unlikely to entertain their 8 year old being betrothed to an older woman as they, for the benefit of their dynasty, want Tommen to enter into a marriage were he may not produce as many heirs as they wish for.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

All possibilities have to be explored.

No, they don't. If I start a thread stating how aliens might crash into Winterfell in the TWOW I'd expect people to point out that is extremely unlikely to happen.

That is all I'm doing, explaining to you why such a marriage in 298 was unlikely to happen. Noble males can marry in their own sweet time, noble females get pressured into early marriage. GRRM is clear that this system sucks, but that was the custom of the time.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

It would be much better for the Tyrells to try to betroth Margaery to Tommen instead of Robert, because her life would not be in danger and there's no risk involved, and it would also be much easier to do.

So why did they not? I'm offering you reasons why they did not and you seem to be unhappy with them.

We know they were planning on attempted marriage to Robert. That is cannon. I'm sorry you don't like that, but we have not one source, not two sources but three sources on that happening. Two of them very credible.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Because Renly might have made the connection that all the Baratheons he has met have black hair and blue eyes unlike the Lannisters who have blonde hair and green eyes.

Renly barely knew his parents while his older brother Stannis is bald.

A child looking like their mother is not suspicious, even in Westeros. Ned does not suspect that Edmure is the father of most of his children.

The idea that Cersei's children look more like Cersei than their father is not a big issue in Westeros, not unless you are looking for evidence that they are not and research into the subject and even then it still not conclusive.

We the reader know the truth because Cersei revealed it, but readers not reacting that it is obvious is bizarre. It's not obvious in their world just like it would not be obvious in ours.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

So why exactly would Ned believe Renly? Renly has no evidence without mentioning the bastards.

But Renly does not have the bastards according to the books.

And why would he believe they were bastards but not that they were Robert's children? One is not more believable than the other.  Believing that the Queen cheated on the king is actually far more likely that believing that the Queen cheated on Robert for the last 15 years and all three of their children are not Robert's.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

If he just said Cersei was cheating on the king that carries no weight.

Yes, it does. In the middle ages that was treason for a Queen. Anne Boelyn cheated on the King, Henry did not have to be convinced their daughter was not his for him to believe this.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

If you think about it, if Renly really was counting on baseless accusations he must already have falsified accounts or something like that, or on the terrible rumours about her, he could have mentioned them to Ned too. But he doesn't. So I don't think this is proof Renly didn't know.

The proof that Renly did not know has already been given to you. He laughs at the story.

The fact that his actions also indicate he did not know is just extra, or that Varys did not think he knew are just extra.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

And if Ned was told Cersei was fucking her brother it isn't hard to see the resemblance between Jaime and Joffrey, or Myrcella and Cersei and how none of them have Robert's traits.

Apart from Arya all of Ned's children look  more like Edmure than they do Ned.

Children looking like their mother is not evidence, it is not even suspicious. The Baratheons of Kings Landing are the most famous family in the realm, their likeness will have been described to everyone. In 15 years only a handful of people suspect the truth and one of those handful had literal spies in the Walls of the Red Keep.

You act like knowing that they are bastards is obvious, its not.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Well I'm not a Stannis fan and it seems you're taking this very personally.

Why do you think I'm taking it personally?  I've replied to you the same amount of times you've replied to me.

The forum is here to discuss, no one is claiming you can't, it would be decent if you'd not try to shut down discussion from others to suggest they are taking something personally. It is a fictional universe of fictional characters.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

No, Aerys I did not have any children with his wife and there were rumours he didnt consummate. Thats why the Council wanted him to put his wife aside.

Nope, the text never says the only reason he could put aside his wife because they believed they did not consummate the marriage. If you think the books state that then please quote it as I'm happy to be proven wrong.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Also, about Maegor:

"Maegor quarreled bitterly with his brother, King Aenys, while Ceryse's father, Lord Martyn Hightower, demanded that Maegor set Alys aside. The High Septon denounced the marriage as sin and fornication and called Alys "this whore of Harroway." Many of the pious lords in the realm began to follow his example, openly referring to Alys as "Maegor's Whore". Maegor remained defiant, however, citing that his father had taken two wives as well, claiming that the strictures of the Faith did not rule the blood of the dragon.[1]

And?

The possibility of putting a wife aside was made possible to Maegor. At no point is it stated there are only certain reasons why he could do that. If you think the book does say that please quote it as I'm happy to be proven wrong.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Feeling he had no other option,[6] Aenys furiously gave Maegor a choice: set Alys aside or go into exile for five years."

So the books are clear, Wives can be put aside. Thank you.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

The problem with the marriage is that it was not legitimate because it was his 2nd wife. It wasn't a case of the first wife being set aside for the second, it was the opposite.

eh? Where does it say that in the books? In the many times putting aside a wife is mentioned as an option where does it state that only certain cases can? I'm happy to be proven wrong on the subject, but please quote the evidence rather than relying on your interpretation of the text.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Here also, Viserys refused to do so. And the marriage produced no children so a case could be made that it was never consummated.

Yes, he did refuse it but the fact that his brother thought it was an option means it is an option. THAT IS WHAT PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO EXPLAIN TO YOU, IN WESTEROS IT IS BELEIVED THAT IT IS AN OPTION.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Duncan and Jenny's marriage also produced no children.

We actually don't know that. There is zero evidence that it was not consummated, or is there?

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Yes, and he was known as Aegon the Unworthy, and started a series of succession wars which killed thousands.

And your point here is what? Your original argument was that the only reason he did not put aside his wofe was that he was fearful of the consequences. Clearly that is not the case.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

He had a very good chance of winning, but he had a very poor chance of putting Cersei aside when the marriage produced three children and Robert owed the Lannisters money.

How so? Where is it claimed that wives with children can not be put aside? Where is it claimed that owing money to Lords means a king can not displease them? Some kings have actually purposefully started wars with people they were in debt to as a means to avoid paying the debt.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Yes, and that would mean he would know how much danger the plan would place Margaery in.

Dude, you still don't get it. This might not make sense to you, but this book is based on the real middle ages where families were willing to risk daughters in such a way. This is based on historical fact.

It is not like we are talking dragons here, we are talking events that happened in real life. I don't think 13 year olds marrying makes sense, but it happened in these times. Do you not see how odd your position on this is?

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Nah there's actually a lot of people who think Renly didn't know on Reddit. 

Reddit is an echo chamber. The great thing about a forum like this is that both of our opinions are equally valid, on Reddit is all about populism, people tend to upvote what they want to be right and sometimes downvote the truth if they don't like it.

Obviously its nice feeling having your opinion validated by others but it does not make it any more correct.  A good example on Reddit was last the last American elections. Reddit was convinced that Sanders would beat Clinton, any topic in r/politics that suggests that Clinton might win was downvoted to oblivion. Clinton won. Then it changed and and topic in r/politics that suggested that Trump would beat Clinton was downvoted to oblivion. Trump won.

Right now on Reddit any topic that suggests that Biden may win the democratic nomination is heavily downvoted despite him clearly being in the lead in all polling.

Reddit is an echo chamber.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

The part where Mace cares for his children deeply.

Yes, he cares for his children deeply. He still sends his teenage son Loras, his most beloved, off to fight battles against much older and renowned warriors, still sends him in the Vanguard in wars.

Again, this kind of shit happened in our own middle ages, Mace willing to send one teenage child into battle and the other to seduce a powerful man was not uncommon in our own history with real life Lords.

GRRM is not basing the book on what makes sense to you, he's basing it on the middle ages.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

The part where Mace is shown to be cautious (like when he sieged Storms End in a tactic that would end in his probably not getting executed whichever side won the war).

He's not shown to be cautious. He rebels against the Throne and crowns Renly. In ADWD he marches on Strorm's End when he hears the Golden Companions have taken it. He murders and imprisons Stannis supporters at Bitterbridge despite not knowing who would win the throne.

Reddit might tell you that Mace is cautious but his actions in the series show that he is not. His mother wanted him to be cautious, he ignored her.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

The part where Margaery is their only marriageable daughter.

And? He has sons, he has nephews, nieces, cousins. The Tyrells are like the Lannisters, they are a huge family.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

The part where its explicitly said in the letter that the plan was for Margaery to be queen.

Yes, that was the plan. Plans sometimes fail, sometimes they have a plan B.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

The part where Olenna mentioned Mace always wanted his grandchildren on the throne.

Pretty much every lord does.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Re: Renly acting out of self preservation.

But how would Renly know Cersei would want to get rid of him?

Did he know for a fact? Of course not, no one is suggesting that. But he suspected and thanks to Cersei's POV chapter we know he was right.

Everyone has intuition. Renly's, in regards to Cersei, happened to be bang on the money.

I find it weird that you have no problem with Stannis' intuition when it comes to the bastards, but seem to be perplexed at the idea of any other character being able to figure things out for themselves.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

And if he fears for his life and dislikes Cersei he could marry some Lannister cousin. He doesn't.

Sorry, where in the books is it mentioned Renly had the option of marrying a Lannister.

Renly wants less Cersei influence, marrying one of her cousins increases her influence, it does not decrease it.  Once he's sired an heir from a Lannister bride his life may be over.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

So it was probably that Renly struck first, by trying to elevate both himself and the Tyrells, and that's why he feared Cersei would get rid of him later.

Renly is already elevated. Unless Robert makes him his Hand he can't elevate any higher.

Cersei did not think Renly and Stannis knew, she still wanted them dead before she killed Robert according to her own POV.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

(Not going to touch your dismissals of the advantages it brings him).

Why not?

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

They failed because of unforeseen circumstances. Faceless men and shadow babies.

But they still failed, right? You acknowledge that right? Almost succeeding is still failing, surely we should not be arguing over that.

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Yeah, and it cost him his life. And he also didn't plan on it, he did it because he was too honourable.

No one plans on failure.

 

 

2 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Ok this is my last post

It does not have to be. Just a heads up, no one is trying to stop you from posting, you don't need to say that, if you don't feel like posting on this subject any more then don't but don't feel the need to do so because other people disagree with you. Your opinion on this subject is as equally valid as anyones.

[R2D]

Wow after reading this I actually agree Renly knew. 

I think Tyrion didn't know at first - because he's sincerely confused when Catelyn arrests him for Bran's fall and he wouldn't be confused if he knew about Jaime and Cersei. I think he figured it out between AGOT and ACOK.

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, R2D said:

Wow after reading this I actually agree Renly knew. 

I think Tyrion didn't know at first - because he's sincerely confused when Catelyn arrests him for Bran's fall and he wouldn't be confused if he knew about Jaime and Cersei. I think he figured it out between AGOT and ACOK.

Tyrion knew. His reaction to Jaime while they were still in Winterfell makes that clear

The maester thinks the boy may yet live." He took a sip of beer.

Myrcella gave a happy gasp, and Tommen smiled nervously, but it was not the children Tyrion was watching. The glance that passed between Jaime and Cersei lasted no more than a second, but he did not miss it.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Oh, yes," Tyrion admitted. "I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say."

His brother's smile curdled like sour milk. "Tyrion, my sweet brother," he said darkly, "there are times when you give me cause to wonder whose side you are on."

He even reveals the truth to Jon Snow

Tyrion found himself oddly touched. "Most of my kin are bastards," he said with a wry smile, "but you're the first I've had to friend." He pulled a glove off with his teeth and clasped Snow by the hand, flesh against flesh. The boy's grip was firm and strong.    

And he reveals to Cersie that he knew before Stannis accusations make it to Kings Landing

"Yes," he said quietly, "but it's Jaime you want."

His sister fancied herself subtle, but he had grown up with her. He could read her face like one of his favorite books, and what he read now was rage, and fear, and despair. "Jaime—"

"—is my brother no less than yours," Tyrion interrupted.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Be gentle, Cersei, I'm only jesting with you. If truth be told, I'd sooner have a nice whore. I never understood what Jaime saw in you, apart from his own reflection."    

 

 

Tyrion had always known about his brother and sister.

 

He is shocked about being abducted because he's innocent of the crime Cat is accusing him of. That is the natural reaction to being accused of a crime you did not commit. Especially when Tyrion had seen the awoken Bran at Winterfell on his way back South and no accusations were made. If the Starks were going to arrest him they'd have done so in their domain, the North, rather than do so in the Riverlands as Tyrion was making his way to the capital.

 

 

 

 

[Ran]

1 hour ago, R2D said:

Wow after reading this I actually agree Renly knew. 

So when he's telling Stannis that he doesn't know and Stannis doesn't call him out on it, and Stannis is talking about his plotting to get Margaery into Robert's bed but also clearly thinks Renly does not know, and when Renly is asking Catelyn if she thinks it's true afterwards but admits it doesn't really matter, and when Renly really thinks a bit about the fact that Bran may have witnessed them at their adultery, this leads you to think that Renly knew?

I'm just trying to understand how these explicit pieces of dialog are ignored in favor of head-canon from people who are overthinking things.

[The Sleeper]

Renly didn't know. If nothing else he would have told everybody in order to push Cersei out. It would have helped his plan immensely. 

A better question is if Tywin knew. On the one hand if he knew many of his actions would be a lot more sensible. On the other hand, if he did know, it begs the question of how he found out and why he left the situation as is, as it was very dangerous to his house. Somehow I don't see Pycelle having the stomach to tell him. Cersei and Jaime certainly wouldn't tell him.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Tyrion knew. His reaction to Jaime while they were still in Winterfell makes that clear

The maester thinks the boy may yet live." He took a sip of beer.

Myrcella gave a happy gasp, and Tommen smiled nervously, but it was not the children Tyrion was watching. The glance that passed between Jaime and Cersei lasted no more than a second, but he did not miss it.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Oh, yes," Tyrion admitted. "I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say."

His brother's smile curdled like sour milk. "Tyrion, my sweet brother," he said darkly, "there are times when you give me cause to wonder whose side you are on."

He even reveals the truth to Jon Snow

Tyrion found himself oddly touched. "Most of my kin are bastards," he said with a wry smile, "but you're the first I've had to friend." He pulled a glove off with his teeth and clasped Snow by the hand, flesh against flesh. The boy's grip was firm and strong.    

And he reveals to Cersie that he knew before Stannis accusations make it to Kings Landing

"Yes," he said quietly, "but it's Jaime you want."

His sister fancied herself subtle, but he had grown up with her. He could read her face like one of his favorite books, and what he read now was rage, and fear, and despair. "Jaime—"

"—is my brother no less than yours," Tyrion interrupted.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Be gentle, Cersei, I'm only jesting with you. If truth be told, I'd sooner have a nice whore. I never understood what Jaime saw in you, apart from his own reflection."    

 

 

Tyrion had always known about his brother and sister.

 

He is shocked about being abducted because he's innocent of the crime Cat is accusing him of. That is the natural reaction to being accused of a crime you did not commit. Especially when Tyrion had seen the awoken Bran at Winterfell on his way back South and no accusations were made. If the Starks were going to arrest him they'd have done so in their domain, the North, rather than do so in the Riverlands as Tyrion was making his way to the capital.

You play this up too much. Tyrion does know how his siblings feel about each other, and he concludes that they might have something to do with Bran's fall, that Bran might have seen or overheard something he should not have seen or overheard. But this doesn't mean he knows they (still) have an affair. Or that Robert's children are Jaime's.

He might suspect something like that, but he doesn't know.

38 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Renly didn't know. If nothing else he would have told everybody in order to push Cersei out. It would have helped his plan immensely. 

A better question is if Tywin knew. On the one hand if he knew many of his actions would be a lot more sensible. On the other hand, if he did know, it begs the question of how he found out and why he left the situation as is, as it was very dangerous to his house. Somehow I don't see Pycelle having the stomach to tell him. Cersei and Jaime certainly wouldn't tell him.

As I think I laid out above, it is actually pretty irrelevant whether Tywin knew or suspected. We can assume that he would have done something about it had he known back when they were still children, before Jaime joined the KG and Cersei married Robert, but if he suspected/knew later didn't really matter.

I'd say the fact that he wanted to raise Tommen effectively as his ward at Casterly Rock - a true Lannister - sort of implies he implicitly accepted Stannis' letter as fact. He disguises his belief there as keeping appearances to deal with the foul rumors when he insist that Jaime has to marry and Cersei has to remarry, but one could make the case that him giving credence to the rumors implies he buys them.

After all, Stannis doesn't permanently separate Selyse and Patchface after those rumors reached KL. He does not try to prevent people from viewing this nonsense as possibly true. But Tywin actually gives the rumors credence. That implies he might have bought them.

But Tywin is basically a black hole as a character. We don't know what went on in his head, especially since vast aspects of his persona seems to have been fake.

[Ran]

He wants Tommen away not because of the rumors -- he's no less an alleged bastard born of incest at Casterly Rock than he is at King's Landing, so this idea that this is a response to the claims feels nonsensical to me -- but because Cersei will ruin the boy. She's a toxic mother and Tommen needed to be raised in a different environment (especially given that her attitude towards him -- and Joffrey's behavior towards him -- seems to have left Tommen very soft and timid).

Tywin wilfully blinded himself to it, just as Kevan says. He saw the same signs as others close to the two did but construed them as something other than they were to preserve his vision of what he and his family and his house were.

[R2D]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

So when he's telling Stannis that he doesn't know and Stannis doesn't call him out on it, and Stannis is talking about his plotting to get Margaery into Robert's bed but also clearly thinks Renly does not know, and when Renly is asking Catelyn if she thinks it's true afterwards but admits it doesn't really matter, and when Renly really thinks a bit about the fact that Bran may have witnessed them at their adultery, this leads you to think that Renly knew?

I'm just trying to understand how these explicit pieces of dialog are ignored in favor of head-canon from people who are overthinking things.

When Renly said he was planning on making her queen Stannis might have thought that could mean as a second wife, polygamy has happened before. And I imagine Stannis thinks Renly is short sighted enough to replace Cersei without knowing of the incest, like anyone else listening in. And later a lot of things happened (like Renly getting killed) which would put Catelyn's mind off thoughts of Renly's scheme.

In my opinion Renly was testing Catelyn's opinion, he first asks her what she thinks of the story, and when she says it makes Stannis the legal heir, he shifts to making it about his own suitability for the throne. 

And, Renly had already received the letter about the incest and "King Stannis" when he told Catelyn Stannis would join him so we already know he's capable of lying. I mean Renly should know his brother and that he's obsessed about the law.

@ Bernie

Thanks for the correction about Tyrion knowing. 

And why exactly couldn't Renly marry a Lannister? Cerenna and Myrielle Lannister are two eligible wives close to his age. Tywin would accept it because it would neutralize Renly as a threat. So I agree with Headfallsoff that either Renly didn't want to get married or he wasn't that fearful for his life.

Now, why didn't Renly tell Robert if he knew? It could be that that Renly didn't want Robert knowing until he'd shifted the balance of power away from the Lannisters, for fear of – well, exactly what ended up happening. RIP Robert. If Margaery was Robert's mistress first, that would decrease Cersei's power and influence, and a contingent from Highgarden could have come to combat the red cloaks and other Lannister appointees. Renly also had to make sure that the children would be in a position where they couldn't be smuggled away while mass confusion reigned, if he told Robert himself he might not believe him so readily unless he has a very good reason to want Cersei gone, that could give the Lannisters time to come up with a backup plan. If he waited it would make everyone safer when the incest is finally revealed; perhaps Renly wanted to secure power so he could handle the situation more tactfully than how Stannis did. He was in the stage of asking Mace for Margaery to be sent to KL when Robert abruptly died.

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, The Sleeper said:

Renly didn't know. If nothing else he would have told everybody in order to push Cersei out. It would have helped his plan immensely. 

There was no gain in it, for either Stannis or Renly, in revealing this information to general public prior Robert's death. They found out about incest, shortly after Jon Arryn. And they knew, that Cersei knew, that some people already know about her and Jaime (that's the reason why Cersei wanted Robert Arryn to be fostered by Tywin, and taken to Westerlands. Because Cersei knew that Lysa knew, so she wanted to use Lysa's kid, as a hostage, and to keep Lysa quiet about what she knows).

When Stannis and Renly became aware that Cersei knows, and that she will take action, to prevent anyone from exposing her, they escaped from King's Landing. Though Stannis did it earlier than Renly, because he was smarter, and he realised, that Cersei will kill even her husband, to protect herself and her children. Probably they (Stannis and Renly, or at least Stannis) thought, that Jon Arryn's death was Cersei's doing. So Stannis was weary, that Cersei will get rid of him too, even before he will reveal the big secret to Robert. Though Stannis couldn't do it, while he still had no evidences.

And majority of evidences got lost with Jon Arryn's death, and Robert's bastards haven't yet arrived to King's Landing. Someone was gathering them in KL, to show them as an evidence to King Robert, that all of his children are dark-haired and blue-eyed, all except Cersei's three, so this in an evidence, that they are not Robert's. Though it required time, to gather them all, and Cersei already became aware of what's going on. So Stannis figured out, that if Cersei won't be able to get her hands on Lysa Arryn and on Stannis, then she will have to kill Robert. Without evidences, Stannis couldn't have accused the Queen in adultery, and by the time, that the evidences were gathered, it would have been already too late to save Robert. So Stannis decided not to reveal this information to Robert, and to let Cersei kill him. By that time Stannis would have already had evidences (Edric Storm, and others), and when he would have revealed that Cersei's children are bastards, then that would have made him the King of 7K (because he was Robert's heir presumptive, in case if Robert had no legitimate children).

The case with Renly is similar. The only difference is that he didn't realised, what Cersei may do, to protect herself. He thought that he still has time to wait for the evidences, and then he was planning to reveal everything to Robert, and Robert was supposed to cast Cersei aside, and then Renly was going to suggest to Robert to marry with Margaery Tyrell. He was hanging at KL longer than Stannis, because Robert's death wasn't part of his plan, like it was part of Stannis' plan. Unlike Renly, Stannis had a valid reason to want Robert's death. Robert made Stannis the Prince of Dragonstone. But that was an empty title - Robert's heir in the throne line was Joffrey, and in Baratheon line - Renly. So Robert gave that title to Stannis, out of spite, as a punishment for letting Viserys and Dany to get away from Dragonstone. So, Stannis probably thought, that it will be only fair, if Robert will die, and then Stannis, as the Prince of Dragonstone, will become the new King of 7K. 

[Megorova]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

But Tywin actually gives the rumors credence. That implies he might have bought them.

"Cersei and Jaime slept together in the same bed when they were very young,^[23] and experimented together in a sexual manner at a young age.^[22] During one of these encounters, they were caught by a servant who informed their mother. A guard was placed near Cersei's bedchamber, whilst Jaime's bedchamber was moved to the other side of the castle. The twins were told never to do anything like that ever again, as Joanna would otherwise be forced to tell their father.^[25]

Cersei's mother died not long thereafter,^[25] in 273 AC,^[1][2] when giving birth to Cersei's younger brother, Tyrion.^[9]"

Shortly after that happened, Johanna died in childbirth. Which means, that at the time, when Jaime and Cersei were caught playing Doctor, Tywin was at Casterly Rock. He would have noticed, that there is a guard standing at Cersei's chamber, and that Jaime was moved away from her room, and to the other side of the castle. If the servant knew, and the guard knew (because he was probably instructed not to let Jaime into Cersei room under no pretext), then Tywin would have either figured out, why his children are kept separated, or he could have asked, either his wife, or that guard. So, most likely, Tywin was aware of that incident, so after hearing those rumors, he figured out, that it could be true.

[Lady Winter Rose]

10 minutes ago, Megorova said:

"Cersei and Jaime slept together in the same bed when they were very young,^[23] and experimented together in a sexual manner at a young age.^[22] During one of these encounters, they were caught by a servant who informed their mother. A guard was placed near Cersei's bedchamber, whilst Jaime's bedchamber was moved to the other side of the castle. The twins were told never to do anything like that ever again, as Joanna would otherwise be forced to tell their father.^[25]

Cersei's mother died not long thereafter,^[25] in 273 AC,^[1][2] when giving birth to Cersei's younger brother, Tyrion.^[9]"

Shortly after that happened, Johanna died in childbirth. Which means, that at the time, when Jaime and Cersei were caught playing Doctor, Tywin was at Casterly Rock. He would have noticed, that there is a guard standing at Cersei's chamber, and that Jaime was moved away from her room, and to the other side of the castle. If the servant knew, and the guard knew (because he was probably instructed not to let Jaime into Cersei room under no pretext), then Tywin would have either figured out, why his children are kept separated, or he could have asked, either his wife, or that guard. So, most likely, Tywin was aware of that incident, so after hearing those rumors, he figured out, that it could be true.

I would usually disagree with you, but this has more sense than "Renly knew" theory.

[Megorova]

18 minutes ago, Lady Winter Rose said:

I would usually disagree with you, but this has more sense than "Renly knew" theory.

Renly did knew. How else could be explained his question to Ned, whether Margaery looks like Lyanna?

What does it matter, whether she looks like Lyanna or not, unless Renly was intending to suggest to Robert to get married to Margaery? And how could have Robert married to Margaery, if he was already married to Cersei? So, the only logical conclusion is that Renly knew about JxC, furthermore he knew that Cersei's children are not Robert's, and thus, after Robert will cast Cersei aside, he will need a new wife, and that's when Renly was intending to approach him, and introduce him to Margaery. And because for some reason Renly thought, that Margaery looks similar to Lyanna Stark, and Robert loved Lyanna, Renly thought that Robert will become interested in Margaery. Someone said to Renly, that Margaery looks like Lyanna. In my opinion it was Littlefinger. He's the one who informed Renly about incest, and the one who suggested to him to introduce Margaery to Robert, and said that Margaery looks like Lyanna. That's because in my opinion Varys was planning to marry Margaery to fAegon, and Littlefinger used Renly to snatch her away from Varys' grasp.

Why to ask Ned, whether Margaery looks like Lyanna? Why was Renly intending to introduce her to Robert? How is it relevant whether Margaery looks like Lyanna, or doesn't look like Lyanna, unless this was going to be used against Robert? Why did Renly thought, that there is a possibility, that Robert will become interested in Margaery, and will marry with her, even though he is already married, to Cersei? All of that doesn't make sense, unless Renly knew about incest.

Thus, he did knew.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Renly didn't know, which makes him a usurper. 

But I think the main thing, or at least my main take away from this, is that Stannis sent his letters about the incest and the children being Jaime's, but none of these great lords, excluding Doran Martell, seem to care that the throne has been usurped by the Lannisters. 

[The Sleeper]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You play this up too much. Tyrion does know how his siblings feel about each other, and he concludes that they might have something to do with Bran's fall, that Bran might have seen or overheard something he should not have seen or overheard. But this doesn't mean he knows they (still) have an affair. Or that Robert's children are Jaime's.

He might suspect something like that, but he doesn't know.

As I think I laid out above, it is actually pretty irrelevant whether Tywin knew or suspected. We can assume that he would have done something about it had he known back when they were still children, before Jaime joined the KG and Cersei married Robert, but if he suspected/knew later didn't really matter.

I'd say the fact that he wanted to raise Tommen effectively as his ward at Casterly Rock - a true Lannister - sort of implies he implicitly accepted Stannis' letter as fact. He disguises his belief there as keeping appearances to deal with the foul rumors when he insist that Jaime has to marry and Cersei has to remarry, but one could make the case that him giving credence to the rumors implies he buys them.

After all, Stannis doesn't permanently separate Selyse and Patchface after those rumors reached KL. He does not try to prevent people from viewing this nonsense as possibly true. But Tywin actually gives the rumors credence. That implies he might have bought them.

But Tywin is basically a black hole as a character. We don't know what went on in his head, especially since vast aspects of his persona seems to have been fake.

I disagree. It is relevant in terms of characterization, as his invasion of the Riverlands is a lot more sensible than otherwise. And even if he couldn't do anything publicly about the incest, he had dozens of ways of making Cersei's life a living hell. Starting with depriving her of coin. If Jaime was exempt from his sharp lessons Cersei wasn't. 

 

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

There was no gain in it, for either Stannis or Renly, in revealing this information to general public prior Robert's death. They found out about incest, shortly after Jon Arryn. And they knew, that Cersei knew, that some people already know about her and Jaime (that's the reason why Cersei wanted Robert Arryn to be fostered by Tywin, and taken to Westerlands. Because Cersei knew that Lysa knew, so she wanted to use Lysa's kid, as a hostage, and to keep Lysa quiet about what she knows).

When Stannis and Renly became aware that Cersei knows, and that she will take action, to prevent anyone from exposing her, they escaped from King's Landing. Though Stannis did it earlier than Renly, because he was smarter, and he realised, that Cersei will kill even her husband, to protect herself and her children. Probably they (Stannis and Renly, or at least Stannis) thought, that Jon Arryn's death was Cersei's doing. So Stannis was weary, that Cersei will get rid of him too, even before he will reveal the big secret to Robert. Though Stannis couldn't do it, while he still had no evidences.

And majority of evidences got lost with Jon Arryn's death, and Robert's bastards haven't yet arrived to King's Landing. Someone was gathering them in KL, to show them as an evidence to King Robert, that all of his children are dark-haired and blue-eyed, all except Cersei's three, so this in an evidence, that they are not Robert's. Though it required time, to gather them all, and Cersei already became aware of what's going on. So Stannis figured out, that if Cersei won't be able to get her hands on Lysa Arryn and on Stannis, then she will have to kill Robert. Without evidences, Stannis couldn't have accused the Queen in adultery, and by the time, that the evidences were gathered, it would have been already too late to save Robert. So Stannis decided not to reveal this information to Robert, and to let Cersei kill him. By that time Stannis would have already had evidences (Edric Storm, and others), and when he would have revealed that Cersei's children are bastards, then that would have made him the King of 7K (because he was Robert's heir presumptive, in case if Robert had no legitimate children).

The case with Renly is similar. The only difference is that he didn't realised, what Cersei may do, to protect herself. He thought that he still has time to wait for the evidences, and then he was planning to reveal everything to Robert, and Robert was supposed to cast Cersei aside, and then Renly was going to suggest to Robert to marry with Margaery Tyrell. He was hanging at KL longer than Stannis, because Robert's death wasn't part of his plan, like it was part of Stannis' plan. Unlike Renly, Stannis had a valid reason to want Robert's death. Robert made Stannis the Prince of Dragonstone. But that was an empty title - Robert's heir in the throne line was Joffrey, and in Baratheon line - Renly. So Robert gave that title to Stannis, out of spite, as a punishment for letting Viserys and Dany to get away from Dragonstone. So, Stannis probably thought, that it will be only fair, if Robert will die, and then Stannis, as the Prince of Dragonstone, will become the new King of 7K. 

Renly's circumstances and character are very different from Stannis's. He is both charismatic and self-confident and wouldn't have bothered with evidence. He would use it as ammunition to push Cersei out as he intended and he would have been correct. Unlike Stannis, he would have been believed both because of the difference in their personalities and the fact that he wouldn't be the immediate beneficiary of the developments and would be seen as more impartial. Besides I don't believe he would have been able to sit on it. 

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Ran said:

I don't think that's quite right:

 

She's actually looking at a scenario where the incest isn't the issue, it's merely that Robert decides he wants rid of her and then will turn on her using his power as king to railroad her out of the marriage and set her aside.

She's a short-term thinker on this, and she thinks Robert is a short-term thinker as well. Robert wants her gone, he gets rid of her, and he deals with the consequences later.

 

 

Sorry, but you're not posting the entire conversation. Before that, she says:

Quote

"Don't play the fool. Stannis and Renly are one thing, and Eddard Stark is quite another. Robert will listen to Stark."

Listen to Stark about what? That Cersei is a biotch? Robert already knows that. What other thing could Robert listen to that would jeopardize Cersei at court other than the incest?

There's more:

Quote

"His wife is Lady Arryn's sister. It's a wonder Lysa was not here to greet us with her accusations."

Those accusations, of course, are that C&J killed her husband because he had found the truth of their incest.

So when we get to the quote you posted, sure, Cersei is worried that Robert will set her aside for a new Lyanna, but not just because he wants to shag a younger, more beautiful queen but because the truth of her incest will come out and she will be removed, if not executed as a traitor, and her children disinherited.

My point here is not that Robert cannot set Cersei aside, but that he needs plausible grounds to do that, and simply having a young hot maid waiting in the wings is not enough.