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Just how many people knew about the incest?


Selere

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

Once you get the idea that Renly wasn't trying to be king in AGoT out of the way, it doesn't matter if "Stannis becomes Robert's heir" because Robert has no problem having offspring (there's literally an infant at the breast as a plot point in AGoT, so he's not gone impotent) and will remarry and have heirs be a new wife in short order once Cersei is gone.

I think he was preparing to seize the throne himself after the boar. Ned was wise not to trust the copper boy. His men would have helped 'the Lord Regent' to arrest and guard Cersei and the children, and we know that the spikes in the moat are rather pointed and the walls of Maegor's Holdfast are harder than the skulls of children... Renly had no issues murdering children.

With the Margaery marriage plan he wasn't aiming at the throne - but once he realized he could be king now that Robert suddenly died the wheels were turning.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

By way of contrast, the Lannisters are feared and hated to varying degrees, and Cersei has cultivated very few friends at court.

Technically true, but Robert's court is still dominated by Lannisters or Lannister toadies. There are no Stormlanders or friends of Robert's at his own court or council (unless you count Selmy as a Stormlander) aside from his two brothers (who both don't exactly love him).

1 hour ago, Ran said:

She has allegedly had a woman sold into slavery (a capital offense) and allegedly murdered infants. Cause enough to drum up a case against her as a breaker of the king's laws and meriting execution. And worse comes to worse, you just make up stuff (maybe she was fucking Moon Boy, or Meryn Trant, or the Hound...) ... kind of like how she did to Margaery, right?

That would be very nasty business considering who Cersei was and who was controlling a lot of the Crown's debts. Ending the marriage is one thing, trying to execute Cersei another.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

If you game it out, it's pretty obvious that if Renly knew when Ned came to court, he should have quickly seized the opportunity of Stannis running off to position himself as the loving brother of the king who helped save him and the realm from the perfidious Lannisters by informing the Hand of what was going on and bringing down the Lannisters. Robert and the realm would have owed him a huge debt, and it'd have been easy enough for him to have Robert marry Margaery.

Yeah, that sounds like something Renly would have done had he known ... just as Stannis retreating and remaining on Dragonstone, preparing for war, means he definitely didn't want to tell Ned or Robert what he suspected/believed he knew, meaning he wanted - likely without admitting that to himself - that Robert and Ned fail and die. He could have saved them both.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Or you might say he worried Ned was ambitious and would marry Sansa to Robert instead... but then why don't we see Renly actively feeling out this potential powerful pivot point? He goes to him with the locket, why in the world would he not start testing out Ned's interests and views and ambitions? If he had, he would have learned that Ned would probably want quit of the South ASAP, would not have agreed to have Sansa marry someone two decades her elder who's kind of an adopted uncle, etc. So all the more reason to then tell him, and use Ned's backing to get rid of the Lannisters as he wanted, increase his own influence, and arrange the Tyrell dynastic tie that he thought best.

To neutralize Sansa in such a scenario he and Loras could easily enough have suggested Loras as Sansa's new spouse considering that both most definitely must have picked up on the fact that Sansa really had a thing for the Knight of Flowers.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Jon Arryn learned of it from Stannis, not Littlefinger. Stannis served for years on the small council, yet neither he nor Jon Arryn knew until shortly before Jon Arryn's death and the investigation that preceeded it... and Stannis seems to have become suspicious because someone (almost certainly Littlefinger) nudged him towards it.

Stannis himself has yet to comment on that. What he has said about his beliefs regarding the incest don't indicate that he needed help to figure it out. And Stannis is perceptive in his own way, and very good at judging the characters of people (the best example for that would be how he talks about his own men in the Theon sample chapter). It could be that somebody tipped him off, but as I point out above I don't buy either Littlefinger or Varys had a motive doing that - nor did anybody else.

And Varys is clearly messing with Tyrion when he talks about Stannis being tipped off - if somebody tipped off Stannis then said person likely wasn't a traitor, at least not because of that, because it would be for King Robert to decided whether this was treason or not. Accusing somebody of a crime is not as such treason.

By the way:

Has anybody ever tried to reconcile Pycelle's claim from AGoT to Ned that Cersei and the children weren't there when Jon Arryn fell ill and died and that only Robert sat at his bedside, etc. with the later claim from ACoK that Pycelle believed Cersei wanted Jon Arryn to die but was afraid to actually say anything?

Do we believe this reflects different points in time - the nameday tourney and the days before that, when Stannis and Jon were investigating things and Cersei realized that something was afoot and Pycelle sensed it, too, and the actual poisoning shortly after the tourney while Cersei was indeed escorting Lord Tywin back home - or do we believe Pycelle lied there? Or is that inconsistency? Because it could be interpreted that Cersei silently implored Pycelle to see to it that Jon died after he had gotten sick.

If Cersei was truly gone when Jon got sick then Pycelle actually acted on his own accord when he dismissed Colemon and took Jon's 'care' in his own hands - that would make him look much nastier than he was before. Ensuring Jon's death because the queen desperately wanted him dead - in his opinion at least - and him only recalling the queen's wishes from days/weeks before and then lonely deciding he would ensure the sick/poisoned man would die is a difference... The latter makes him look much more like a lickspittle thug.

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11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I think he was preparing to seize the throne himself after the boar.

Possibly, but also possibly not. It feels to me like he was quite earnestly trying to save his own life when he spoke to Ned, because he knew that as the king's uncle and a power in his own right that Cersei would have it out for him, just as she would have it out for Ned. Ned didn't fail to take up Renly's offer because he didn't trust him (he had counted on his support), but purely because he objected to such a thing while Robert was alive. More fool Ned.

Maybe after the children were in hand and Ned revealed their illegitimacy,  Renly would start thinking... but then again, maybe not. But before he knew about the illegitimacy,  he could also have just as easily thought that Ned would want to leave ASAP, and he'd be in position to become regent for his nephew thanks to his pivotal role and because Stannis was off sulking when all this went down, and Joffrey would be married to Margaery with Mace as Hand.  It'd be a pretty nice position for him and the Tyrells.

Also, it's worth noting that while Stannis is quite clear that Cersei's "abominations" are not safe from him, Renly never did articulate what would be done with the children. Given his strong interest in appearances, I feel like he would not be executing children and sticking their heads on spikes, to say the least. Joffrey could be sent to the Wall and Tommen and Myrcella could essentially be kept as hostages against Tywin, I suppose, might also have worked quite well. Or they could just disappear.

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19 minutes ago, Ran said:

Possibly, but also possibly not. It feels to me like he was quite earnestly trying to save his own life when he spoke to Ned, because he knew that as the king's uncle and a power in his own right that Cersei would have it out for him, just as she would have it out for Ned. Ned didn't fail to take up Renly's offer because he didn't trust him (he had counted on his support), but purely because he objected to such a thing while Robert was alive. More fool Ned.

Hm, the problem I have with that idea is that Renly as Robert's youngest brother and Lord of Storm's End could actually have been a valuable ally and asset Cersei could have used against both the Starks/Tullys and Stannis - and she knew he might suspect/believe something about her children that could motivate him to crown himself king. If one considers Renly's claim as such he shouldn't have been that great of a danger to King Joffrey.

Now, we do know that Cersei/Joffrey and Renly did not get along, but we never learn why. We don't even know whether Renly schemed to replace Cersei because he feared her merely because he despised her. However, what little we do know - think of Renly semi-publicly ridiculing the Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne in the wake of the Mycah affair - implies that Renly is not exactly all that innocent in not getting along with Cersei. Which is odd to some degree - we know he cannot have lived permanently at court for long since Loras was his squire at Storm's End, not in KL, meaning that he must also be a rather late addition to the council, somewhat limiting his chances to rub Cersei the wrong way for years.

I think we can assume that Robert's decision to make Renly Lord of Storm's End also vexed Cersei, not just Stannis, but she never gives that as a reason why she didn't like the guy, and we don't know whether that grant was made before or after Cersei had given birth to any of her children.

Bottom line is - why didn't Renly never try to bridge the gulf between him and Cersei? She could need any help she could get while Robert was dying, so there must have been the same kind of potential for a Renly-Cersei alliance as there was for a Renly-Ned alliance.

I mean, what about Cersei offering Renly Myrcella's hand in marriage? The Baratheons are no strangers to avuncular marriages, and it would have given Renly a very exalted position at court. In exchange he could have given King Joffrey the support of both the Stormlands and the Reach.

Unless there was truly a lot of bad blood between these two - if that was the case then it would really be great if George were to give some hints in that direction in the future. We now know less about Robert's reign than we do about the reign of Aerys II...

And Renly is the first pretender to come forth. Why is that? If he was just/mainly afraid for his life, why didn't he sent a raven to Stannis, asking him to make common cause against the Lannisters without either of them crowning themselves yet? Renly's actions are not the actions of man who doesn't know what he wants...

And since Loras is clearly no schemer we can, I think, be reasonably certain that he was never a puppet of the Tyrells, either. The Margaery-Robert plan was, in my opinion, Renly's plan, and 'King Renly' himself was also Renly's plan, not something the Tyrells came up with - the fact that Olenna apparently opposed/disliked the idea (at least in retrospect; her post hoc view on the end of her betrothal to Prince Daeron also doesn't necessarily reflect reality...) seems to indicate to me that Renly must have pitched that idea to Mace, and he, backed by Loras, went along with it

19 minutes ago, Ran said:

Maybe after the children were in hand and Ned revealed their illegitimacy,  Renly would start thinking... but then again, maybe not. But before he knew about the illegitimacy,  he could also have just as easily thought that Ned would want to leave ASAP, and he'd be in position to become regent for his nephew thanks to his pivotal role and because Stannis was off sulking when all this went down, and Joffrey would be married to Margaery with Mace as Hand.  It'd be a pretty nice position for him and the Tyrells.

Yeah, that is a possible scenario, too, and as the eventual true regent, Renly could also have ensured he would eventually sit the throne, anyway, no need to rush things. I'm a strong proponent of the idea that Littlefinger's offer to Ned - use Joff/the Lannisters to deal with Stannis, then use the incest revelation to destroy Cersei's children to make Renly the ultimate king - was actually genuine. And it entails or hints at the fact that Littlefinger believed/knew that Renly actually wanted to be king himself - it is also something that's included in Cressen's story of Renly being the boy who always wanted to shine and be the center of attention ('Look at me, I'm the rain god').

19 minutes ago, Ran said:

Also, it's worth noting that while Stannis is quite clear that Cersei's "abominations" are not safe from him, Renly never did articulate what would be done with the children. Given his strong interest in appearances, I feel like he would not be executing children and sticking their heads on spikes, to say the least. Joffrey could be sent to the Wall and Tommen and Myrcella could essentially be kept as hostages against Tywin, I suppose, might also have worked quite well. Or they could just disappear.

Oh, I don't think the children can be executed as such. They are innocents. They would have to be murdered the way Elia's children were - although likely not in the same gruesome manner they were. Stannis is not afraid of saying that he would do that, basically (although part of his talk also implies that butchering 'abominations' was what the Faith and the people and the lords and kings also did to children born of incest in the Pre-Conquest days), but Renly shows his true colors, in my opinion, when he has no problem with the murders of Daenerys and her unborn child, insisting that it should have been done a long time ago.

Also, Renly is later on only concerned with appearances when they discuss the murder of Stannis. It is quite clear that Renly's brave knights will kill Stannis 'in battle' - in a manner that's not going to make Renly look all that bad, but they wanted to do that. Sure, Stannis is not a child, and I guess chances are pretty high that Renly wouldn't have killed Myrcella, considering she was a girl, but Joffrey was a crowned king. He had to go. Tommen may have been young enough to spare him technically, but that would depend on whether Renly wanted to do that or not.

It would help to answer question such as this if we knew what happened to little Maegor later on - if he eventually rose against his dear uncle Aegon V and had to be put down I find it rather unlikely that Renly would have taken any chances.

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9 hours ago, UnFit Finlay said:

Hmm. Good catch.

I suppose that would add to Littlefinger's motives for keeping Stannis away from the Throne - if he's already approached him and been turned down, the same way he did with Ned.

I would've thought Stannis would've mentioned it, however, the only thing I can recall is that he says he told Jon Arryn of his "suspicions". He doesn't moan about Littlefinger anymore than anyone else either. Which you'd think he would if he knew, for a fact, that Littlefinger knew he was telling the truth. Plus I would've thought Littlefinger would be smarter than that.

 

Seriously? A King divorcing his wife would be harder than Usurpring the Throne with no claim to it at all.

I completely disagree on your second point. "Nobody is going to want to support him"- Not even Ned? The Lord Paramount of the North, who is like a brother to him and hates the Lannisters? Or Jon Arryn? Doran might not support him but he's not siding with Tywin either.

Still, even if that were true, he'd still have the support of Highgarden and Storm's End, which as we saw from Renly's own war was nearly enough to take the Throne.

In all honesty though. Considering how women are treated in the series, I honestly doubt many people would care. Even Tywin, while privately furious, would probably shrug it off in public. Same as he did after Aerys many slights against him.

Why though? If anyone wanted Stannis as King then they'd have sided with him anyway. Everybody who followed Renly knew full well that he had no legal right to the Throne from the beginning, yet they still followed him, because they thought he was the best choice. 

On the first point, I think it'd be pretty easy to convince nobles to rebel if they think they'll profit. Look at the Stormlords who rebelled with Renly, went over to Stannis after his death and THEN went over to Joffrey during the Battle of the Blackwater.

I dont think Littlefinger told him directly - maybe dropped a few hints or started whispers like he did in AFFC about Joffrey's cruelty.

If you think about it, Littlefinger might have made sure Renly and Stannis both knew because he knew they didn't get along, so he knew they wouldn't work with each other and  Renly would work against Stannis becoming king since he had that alliance with the Tyrells and was ambitious.

Yes, that's exactly what I mean. Getting rid of Cersei is much harder than winning the throne. You're just agreeing with me..?

Tywin, the man who razed the Riverlands when his least favorite son was kidnapped while Robert was still alive wouldn't go to war when his daughter become humiliated and lost her position as queen? I doubt that.

John Suburbs also offers some good points about why the nobles would have a reason to go on the Lannisters' side. Also think about how the nobles would feel threatened if the hugely powerful Reach was married to the crown - that's another incentive to go against the crown. Read Dance of the Dragons, many people joined Tywin.

Context: I'm talking about him saying his friends would take up arms against the queen, not about his usurpation.

@Ran

Still a very risky endeavor - the Lannisters had control of the gold cloaks and there was still a great chance they would lose their lives fighting or even if they lived, be branded traitors forever and when Joffrey came of age he might execute them. 

Talking about the attempted coup, not the scheme here. And did Renly even know of those things? Lord Varys also points out how that wouldn't necessarily work. And the fact remains that even if Cersei was executed, her children still remain. There's no legal basis to get rid of the children.

Renly was going through his plan when Ned came to court - but he was making sure Robert fell in love with Margaery first. Again there is no guarantee Robert marries Margaery without seeing her just because his brother says so, and he might even decide he's sick of being king and pass the crown to Stannis. Renly and the Tyrells wouldn't want that at all.

Also, Ran, don't you work with GRRM? Why don't you ask him? People argue about this almost every week.

@Lord Varys

I don't think it is fair to say Renly had no problem killing children because he agreed with assassinating Daenerys. That was about a stranger a whole continent away who posed a danger to them which he might have said just so that Robert would like him. Very different from murdering his niece and nephews straight up.

I don't think Renly wanted either Robert or Ned to die. He might not have any solid proof to make them believe him and it would be risky to tell Robert he had been cuckolded (shoot the messenger and all that). If Robert was already in love with Margaery however, that would give it a greater chance that Robert would not be angry at him and  believe him and get rid of Cersei. 

I think we argued about it once before and the only evidence you gave that Loras wasn't at KL is that Ned didn't meet him which doesn't prove anything much. Actually they both must have lived for some time at court because almost everyone at court knew about Renly and Loras.

Also the Faith doesn't support niece-uncle marriages and Myrcella is Renly's niece.

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12 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

But could Robert just up and decide to send Cersie packing? Or does even he need a reason to dispose of his wife of 15 years? I have to believe that Renly and the Tyrells had to be planning on outing Cersei in some way, otherwise all they'd manage to do is send the realm into a tailspin.

Cersei believes he could, she says as much in the conversation Bran overhears before he is pushed. Being put aside for another Lyanna was a real threat to Cersei.  So it is clear he could do it.

Would he? Probably not, he was not a romantic like Henry VIII who married for love and also needed heirs, Robert may look like him in appearance and past times but Robert had no issue sleeping with whores and moved on very quickly. He also barely cared about the children, both legitimate and illegitimate, that he did have.

Cersei was being paranoid but it was a possibility. Varys reads the letters sent back and forth to Highgarden and knew of the plan for Margaery to seduce the king into bed and then make him marry her, in the same paragraph he calls Ned the real danger because he is close to finding out the truth.

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21 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

And the fact remains that even if Cersei was executed, her children still remain. There's no legal basis to get rid of the children.

 

Why is that an issue?

21 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Also, Ran, don't you work with GRRM? Why don't you ask him? People argue about this almost every week.

 

This forum has tens of thousands of unanswered questions on characters motives, origins, family connections, past actions.

Ran probably does not want to annoy a friend with a constant barrage of questions. Or if he does, said friend may not want everything revealed and prefer a level of mystique around the series so fans can carry on discussing such topics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

Why is that an issue?

This forum has tens of thousands of unanswered questions on characters motives, origins, family connections, past actions.

Ran probably does not want to annoy a friend with a constant barrage of questions. Or if he does, said friend may not want everything revealed and prefer a level of mystique around the series so fans can carry on discussing such topics.

 

Because Margaery's children can't inherit and Mace wants his grandchildren on the throne. You said something about nobles wanting their daughters to be mistresses to the king but I don't remember that happening in ASOIAF. And if Robert were to die Joffrey would assume power and could severely punish Margaery or even execute her.

If that was rude, then I apologize. But that also means people shouldn't state their opinions as objective facts, because it's about exploring the text not about being right or wrong.

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15 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Because Margaery's children can't inherit and Mace wants his grandchildren on the throne.

He'd also be overjoyed with his daughter as Queen and his grandchildren as Princes and Princess's.

Obviously every Lord wants their grandchild to be king, but they'd also be hugely ecstatic to have a royal wife.

Look at Walder Frey, hundreds of heirs and Houses are still supplying daughters for him to marry. Being Robert's second wife would be a huge boon for any House.

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You said something about nobles wanting their daughters to be mistresses to the king but I don't remember that happening in ASOIAF.

During the reign of Aegon IV this was hugely common, from the Brackens and Blackwoods competing for paramour status to other Lords literally pimping their daughters out for a night for a Dragon Egg.

A King's favour is something most Lords desire, with favour along comes titles, riches and lands to some.

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And if Robert were to die Joffrey would assume power and could severely punish Margaery or even execute her.

That is a possibility. But that has never stopped Lords doing just that in both the real middle ages and in Westeros.

They don't think longterm, they think of accumulating power and influence as quickly as possible.

The wives of Henry VIII tried, and did, get along with his other children. As did Daeron II with his step siblings and his father's paramours. The expectation of revenge is simply not there in these situations.

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2 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

He'd also be overjoyed with his daughter as Queen and his grandchildren as Princes and Princess's.

Obviously every Lord wants their grandchild to be king, but they'd also be hugely ecstatic to have a royal wife.

Look at Walder Frey, hundreds of heirs and Houses are still supplying daughters for him to marry. Being Robert's second wife would be a huge boon for any House.

During the reign of Aegon IV this was hugely common, from the Brackens and Blackwoods competing for paramour status to other Lords literally pimping their daughters out for a night for a Dragon Egg.

A King's favour is something most Lords desire, with favour along comes titles, riches and lands to some.

That is a possibility. But that has never stopped Lords doing just that in both the real middle ages and in Westeros.

They don't think longterm, they think of accumulating power and influence as quickly as possible.

The wives of Henry VIII tried, and did, get along with his other children. As did Daeron II with his step siblings and his father's paramours. The expectation of revenge is simply not there in these situations.

Hm thanks for the correction. I suppose it's possible that they were so greedy they didn't think of the long term ramifications.

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2 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

Hm thanks for the correction. I suppose it's possible that they were so greedy they didn't think of the long term ramifications.

Robert is only in his 30's. There is potentially decades to pacify the heir of the Throne as well as insulate themselves with more power and titles.

At the end of the day Joffrey's wrath would be focused on his father, the man who put his wife aside, rather than his new step mother and her family. An end to Cersei's influence and presence at  Court would see the Tyrells be able to try to get on his good side.

It is not like they'd be expecting Margaery to be Queen/Paramour for a short amount of time, but a sustained period.

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Another piece of proof from Renly's parlay with Stannis:

 

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"We both know your wedding was a mummer's farce. A year ago you were scheming to make the girl one of Robert's whores."
 
"A year ago I was scheming to make the girl Robert's queen," Renly said, "but what does it matter?"

Stannis seemed to know of Renly's plotting while at the same time seeming to believe that Renly knew nothing of the incest... and at the same time, Renly admits plotting while also indicating that he did not know about the incest. And neither of them react as if this didn't make sense.

It's one of those things where it's simply obvious that if George had intended Renly to have known, he would have used moments like that to make it clear that either Renly's plot has to be predicated on the knowledge of the incest or at least Stannis believed it was predicated on it.

Instead, what we're left with is that Renly didn't know and had some unknown plans for supplanting Cersei, whether legal accusations or underhanded methods (like poison). Atwell and others on Tumblr and Twitter are simply mistaken on this point.

 

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6 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

I dont think Littlefinger told him directly - maybe dropped a few hints or started whispers like he did in AFFC about Joffrey's cruelty.

If you think about it, Littlefinger might have made sure Renly and Stannis both knew because he knew they didn't get along, so he knew they wouldn't work with each other and  Renly would work against Stannis becoming king since he had that alliance with the Tyrells and was ambitious.

Still a bit of a risk though.

I will acknowledge that it is possible that he told Stannis directly, which would explain his "He won't thank you" comment to Ned. I'm still confident that Renly knew nothing. After all, his relationship with Robert was nowhere near as strained as Stannis' was and he wouldn't benefit from the story. I think he'd have just went to Robert.

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Yes, that's exactly what I mean. Getting rid of Cersei is much harder than winning the throne. You're just agreeing with me..?

No. I'm asking if you're serious?

Robert was the highest authority in the realm. If he chose to put Cersei aside then who, exactly, is going to stop him? The only person who potentially could have would be the High Septon but they were all basically puppets until the High Sparrow took over.

Plots like Renly's were hardly unheard of either. Aerys I's small council openly encouraged him to set his wife aside, for example. 

Usurping the Throne and getting people to recognise *you* as the highest authority in the realm though? That's an entirely different ball game. The ONLY reason Robert was able to do it was because Aerys II was *that* bad that the rebels felt that they had no other option. Even then, people still stayed loyal to Aerys. Even Stannis, Robert's brother, was torn between supporting him or the psychopath who'd demanded his head for no reason at all.

 

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Tywin, the man who razed the Riverlands when his least favorite son was kidnapped while Robert was still alive wouldn't go to war when his daughter become humiliated and lost her position as queen? I doubt that.

 

Yes. There's even precedent to support that. He groomed Cersei to marry Rhaegar and flat out told her that it was going to happen. When Aerys scoffed at the notion, what did he do? Likewise when Aerys took "liberties" with Joanna? Or appointed his favourite son to the Kingsguard without asking him? Where was Tywin's rebellion? Even with all those humiliations, he didn't join Robert's Rebellion until it was already over.


There is also a massive difference between attacking a neighbour in disguise and open rebellion against the King.

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John Suburbs also offers some good points about why the nobles would have a reason to go on the Lannisters' side. Also think about how the nobles would feel threatened if the hugely powerful Reach was married to the crown - that's another incentive to go against the crown. Read Dance of the Dragons, many people joined Tywin.


 

The thing is, though, you're talking about "nobles" like we don't know them. At the time Renly was plotting this the Great Houses were led by Ned Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, Mace Tyrell, Doran Martell, Tywin and Renly himself. Of those, who exactly would side with Tywin over Robert? Renly, Ned and Jon are firmly Robert's. As is Hoster through his marriage ties with Ned and Jon. Mace isn't objecting to anything that makes his wife Queen and the Martells have been itching for revenge against the Lannisters for over a decade. Who does that leave to support Tywin? He couldn't even count on support from any Targaryen loyalists, who hate him as well.

People joining Tywin later isn't really relevant  It was a different time and situation. For starters he was *representing* the Throne and, secondly, people only joined him once he secured the Alliance with the Tyrells and started winning. That would not have happened if Robert was still King and married Margaery.

From Renly's perspective, the only real risk to him was if his plot *wasn't* successful and the Lannisters retained influence, which is what happened.

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8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

I dont think Littlefinger told him directly - maybe dropped a few hints or started whispers like he did in AFFC about Joffrey's cruelty.

This stuff has to imply that Littlefinger has known for a considerable time - and as I try to convince you guys the entire time, knowledge isn't the correct word here. Strong suspicion, perhaps.

And Littlefinger was still a relative newcomer at Robert's court. He was only Master of Coin for a couple of years. Stannis lived at Robert's court (presumably) since his brother made him Master of Ships - which seems to have been immediately after his coronation. He had more time and opportunity to grow suspicious, especially since he actually would have interacted with Robert, Cersei, the children, and Jaime on a private level - unlike a secondary courtier like Littlefinger.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Tywin, the man who razed the Riverlands when his least favorite son was kidnapped while Robert was still alive wouldn't go to war when his daughter become humiliated and lost her position as queen? I doubt that.

He would likely go to war, but chances are pretty high that very few people would join him. The Lannisters are not popular. You see how much they must be hated when the entire Reach actually follows suit and sticks with King Renly. Mace crowns a king with basically a very bad claim, yet nobody cares. They all are enthusiastic Renly followers.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

 

Still a very risky endeavor - the Lannisters had control of the gold cloaks and there was still a great chance they would lose their lives fighting or even if they lived, be branded traitors forever and when Joffrey came of age he might execute them. 

Cersei doesn't have the Goldcloaks until they are bought. And we still don't know how that went. Cersei actually think Sansa gave her the means to defeat Ned. She doesn't credit Littlefinger for that, which is odd considering that, in the end, the City Watch were the deciding factor. From what we know about Slynt it seems he was Littlefinger's man first and Cersei's second, but in the end it must have been Lannister gold that decided his allegiance. Because Cersei can buy out Littlefinger any day. And the fact that Slynt rather than Littlefinger originally got Harrenhal implies that Slynt knew his power in this struggle and really was able to sell himself to the highest bidder.

Did Cersei also sent Littlefinger to buy Slynt for her? Did Littlefinger then choose between her and Ned? Or did she send her own envoys to Slynt and buy him before Littlefinger even arrived? We still don't know.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Renly was going through his plan when Ned came to court - but he was making sure Robert fell in love with Margaery first. Again there is no guarantee Robert marries Margaery without seeing her just because his brother says so, and he might even decide he's sick of being king and pass the crown to Stannis. Renly and the Tyrells wouldn't want that at all.

If you view Renly as the guy behind the Robert-Margaery scheme - and that's how we have to see it - then the point of that scheme was mostly to rid the court of Cersei, not to please the Tyrells. Renly intended to use Margaery for his own ends - to destroy Cersei.

And as I laid out above - we still don't really know or understand what exactly the problems were Cersei and Renly had with each other. That's something I really would like to know.

Renly is not exactly a very developed character, and that's a pity.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

I don't think it is fair to say Renly had no problem killing children because he agreed with assassinating Daenerys. That was about a stranger a whole continent away who posed a danger to them which he might have said just so that Robert would like him. Very different from murdering his niece and nephews straight up.

The difference is one of degree. Daenerys Targaryen is also Renly's cousin. It doesn't seem to be a murder in kinslaying territory, but it is an ugly thing the more honorable advisers of King Robert - Ned and Selmy - are against. And even Pycelle cites the good of the Realm, etc. to justify it. They all know this is an ugly thing. But Renly has no problem with that at all. He shows that he/can be a very cold fish.

Renly is, in my opinion, a man who can project this very pleasant and amicable aura, but he is not afraid to get his hands dirty. Not at all. And that tells us something about him. He is not as worse as Littlefinger or Tywin but he is closer to them than to, say, Robert. Because Robert actually had a change of heart on his deathbed. He is more talk and little action. If he was more surrounded by good people like Ned he would nearly always swing to the right side, making the moral decision in the end. But a man like Renly would always follow his own Machiavellian tendencies.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

I don't think Renly wanted either Robert or Ned to die. He might not have any solid proof to make them believe him and it would be risky to tell Robert he had been cuckolded (shoot the messenger and all that). If Robert was already in love with Margaery however, that would give it a greater chance that Robert would not be angry at him and  believe him and get rid of Cersei. 

I don't think Renly wanted Ned or Robert to die - I said Stannis wanted them to die (or didn't care whether they were killed/would fail) because he chose to keep his mouth shut after Jon Arryn died. Stannis believed he knew Jon had been murdered and why and he kept his mouth shut all the same, abandoning his brother and preparing for war. It would have been his duty to talk to Robert about what he thought to be the truth.

Citing self-preservation as an excuse is just that - a (cowardly) excuse. Or do you think Stannis would pardon, say, Davos if Davos learned that Selyse was cuckolding Stannis with Patches and not telling him immediately? I don't think so. The man uses different standards - one for himself and then another for everybody else.

As for Renly - Robert doesn't need a reason to want to rid himself of Cersei. If he had a noble lover he would want to make his new queen that would be enough. And Renly knows that.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

I think we argued about it once before and the only evidence you gave that Loras wasn't at KL is that Ned didn't meet him which doesn't prove anything much. Actually they both must have lived for some time at court because almost everyone at court knew about Renly and Loras.

Very few people actually know about Renly and Loras. The evidence we have for them living at Storm's End is Renly's secret burial place as well as the fact that it is said that Loras was sent to Storm's End to squire there for Renly. There would have been visits and the like, but Renly is far too young to have been Master of Laws for more than a couple of years.

It would be interesting to know what young Lord Renly did - who he squired for, etc. But we don't. If he was Robert's squire, say, then he would have been at court from an earlier age. If he squired for the castellan of Storm's End - perhaps Cortnay Penrose even back then - then he would have spent more time at Storm's End.

8 hours ago, Headfallsoff said:

Also the Faith doesn't support niece-uncle marriages and Myrcella is Renly's niece.

The Faith's power has been broken. And Jocelyn Baratheon did marry her half-nephew Prince Aemon Targaryen. The Baratheons are no strangers to that kind of thing. Incest as per the Faith's definition is just among siblings and parents, not more distant relations.

But then - a widowed Cersei Lannister could also have offered herself in marriage to Renly, along with the office of Lord Regent or, if Cersei wanted to be Queen Regent, Hand and Protector of the Realm. There were ways how these two could have gotten along.

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2 minutes ago, UnFit Finlay said:

Still a bit of a risk though.

I will acknowledge that it is possible that he told Stannis directly, which would explain his "He won't thank you" comment to Ned. I'm still confident that Renly knew nothing. After all, his relationship with Robert was nowhere near as strained as Stannis' was and he wouldn't benefit from the story. I think he'd have just went to Robert.

No. I'm asking if you're serious?

Robert was the highest authority in the realm. If he chose to put Cersei aside then who, exactly, is going to stop him? The only person who potentially could have would be the High Septon but they were all basically puppets until the High Sparrow took over.

Plots like Renly's were hardly unheard of either. Aerys I's small council openly encouraged him to set his wife aside, for example. 

Usurping the Throne and getting people to recognise *you* as the highest authority in the realm though? That's an entirely different ball game. The ONLY reason Robert was able to do it was because Aerys II was *that* bad that the rebels felt that they had no other option. Even then, people still stayed loyal to Aerys. Even Stannis, Robert's brother, was torn between supporting him or the psychopath who'd demanded his head for no reason at all.

 

Yes. There's even precedent to support that. He groomed Cersei to marry Rhaegar and flat out told her that it was going to happen. When Aerys scoffed at the notion, what did he do? Likewise when Aerys took "liberties" with Joanna? Or appointed his favourite son to the Kingsguard without asking him? Where was Tywin's rebellion? Even with all those humiliations, he didn't join Robert's Rebellion until it was already over.


There is also a massive difference between attacking a neighbour in disguise and open rebellion against the King.

The thing is, though, you're talking about "nobles" like we don't know them. At the time Renly was plotting this the Great Houses were led by Ned Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, Mace Tyrell, Doran Martell, Tywin and Renly himself. Of those, who exactly would side with Tywin over Robert? Renly, Ned and Jon are firmly Robert's. As is Hoster through his marriage ties with Ned and Jon. Mace isn't objecting to anything that makes his wife Queen and the Martells have been itching for revenge against the Lannisters for over a decade. Who does that leave to support Tywin? He couldn't even count on support from any Targaryen loyalists, who hate him as well.

People joining Tywin later isn't really relevant  It was a different time and situation. For starters he was *representing* the Throne and, secondly, people only joined him once he secured the Alliance with the Tyrells and started winning. That would not have happened if Robert was still King and married Margaery.

From Renly's perspective, the only real risk to him was if his plot *wasn't* successful and the Lannisters retained influence, which is what happened.

Renly doesn't benefit in the same way and it's risky if he just told Robert directly. Read my links and my other points.

I haven't read TWOIAF but I just read the wiki and it says The Small Council urged Aerys I to put aside his marriage because he had no heirs and there were even rumours he hadn't consummated the marriage. Cersei birthed Robert three healthy heirs.

There are numerous examples of unhappy royal marriages in Westerosi history, and each time the pair have just had to suffer through.

eg. Maegor the Cruel dealt with his marital dissatisfaction by taking multiple wives, but that's not an option anymore. Aegon IV refused to grant Naerys' request to join the Faith as a septa after she provided an heir in Daeron, even though he was happily rooting his way through the Seven Kingdoms and ultimately starting trying to set up his bastard Daemon Waters/Blackfyre as an alternative heir. (Agentknitter on reddit)

Robert doesn't like confrontation and openly spitting in Tywin's face is just calling for war. He let Cersei dictate his life.

That's because Aerys was quite popular in his youth. The Lannisters aren't, and no one liked Stannis either. Renly took advantage of the confusion to present himself as the best and it worked.

He did it quite easily. Almost everyone from the Reach and Stormlands followed him. There were really, very few things that could have stopped him.

That's because Tywin was biding his time and  still hoping to have Cersei as queen. And what exactly would happen if he went into rebellion? He'd be put down immediately. Not in this case.

He was also a young man and I imagine was better able to take slights against his character. In AGOT he was a man who seemingly had everything he wanted, his daughter as queen, his grandchildren ready to take the throne, everything bar Jaime as his heir. He would definitely go to war.

Tywin only got off because Robert died in the boar hunt. He was hoping to kidnap the Hand of the King too, Robert's best friend. 

Tywin had a shit ton of gold and could buy sellswords, and he could spin the propaganda in his favour: "Look, he's putting aside his wife just because he got tired of her, what kind of example does that set for our people, do you want that to be a tradition? What if his heir marries into your family, and then he tosses her aside just because due to Robert's example? What if you marry your daughter into another House and they do the same?" I bet a ton of smaller houses wouldn't want that. Also just because the Lord Paramount of a region would follow Robert doesn't mean all their vassals will. Let's take your own example of Robert's vassals rebelling against him when he went to war.

And another thing: Why would the Tyrells work to marry Margaery to Robert, when Joffrey was heir, way closer to her age, and available? Maybe because they found out he was a bastard born of incest. Plus Margaery is House Tyrell's only daughter. Would they risk her in such a plan if they had no guarantee the Lannisters could be put down? I find it hard to believe. As mentioned, there's the risk Joffrey grows up and executes her, there's also the risk that Robert sleeps with her, gets her pregnant and then tosses her aside, or that Cersei would kill her while she was seducing Robert.

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You all need to remember this one thing:

Ned come to adultery being a thing from Sansa's he does look nothing like a drunk king. Incest was his own conclusion.

Neither Varys or LF actually mentioned that to Ned.

I wonder how Stannis got its doubts even if he's tipped like does he even comment on his findings...

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18 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

And another thing: Why would the Tyrells work to marry Margaery to Robert, when Joffrey was heir, way closer to her age, and available?

He wasn't available because Robert planned to betroth Joffrey to Sansa, and for all we know had already begun to noodle about it.

Quote

Maybe because they found out he was a bastard born of incest.

But they didn't know.

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Plus Margaery is House Tyrell's only daughter. Would they risk her in such a plan if they had no guarantee the Lannisters could be put down? I find it hard to believe. As mentioned, there's the risk Joffrey grows up and executes her, there's also the risk that Robert sleeps with her, gets her pregnant and then tosses her aside, or that Cersei would kill her while she was seducing Robert.

We have seen ambitious families risk much in the setting, and in history; consider all the mistresses of Louis XIV, the wives of Henry VII, the mistresses of Aegon the Unworthy, and so on and so forth. Some may have thought their women would be the mothers of kings, but others thought... well, no, but it was still pretty great to be lover or wife of a king.

Renly and Loras obviously thought they had a plan that could work, that could make Margaery queen, and for all we know that was the sum total of their ambition at the time. It wasn't a plan based on revealing Cersei's adultery and incest, because they didn't know about it, but we know that Cersei had (at least allegedly) commited crimes that could lead to execution, we know that taking religious vows can break a marriage (see Fireball sending his wife to the silent sisters) and they might have thought they could somehow blackmail Cersei into doing so, etc., etc. 

The fact that we don't know the details of the plan doesn't mean we should suppose that the plan had to be one thing and only that one thing, especially when there's evidence directly contradictory.

 

@Lady Winter Rose

To be fair, Ned had been getting pieces of information around the topic of Robert and his children for a good while before that. Sansa was the one who made him realize how all the pieces fit together.

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3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This stuff has to imply that Littlefinger has known for a considerable time - and as I try to convince you guys the entire time, knowledge isn't the correct word here. Strong suspicion, perhaps.

And Littlefinger was still a relative newcomer at Robert's court. He was only Master of Coin for a couple of years. Stannis lived at Robert's court (presumably) since his brother made him Master of Ships - which seems to have been immediately after his coronation. He had more time and opportunity to grow suspicious, especially since he actually would have interacted with Robert, Cersei, the children, and Jaime on a private level - unlike a secondary courtier like Littlefinger.

He would likely go to war, but chances are pretty high that very few people would join him. The Lannisters are not popular. You see how much they must be hated when the entire Reach actually follows suit and sticks with King Renly. Mace crowns a king with basically a very bad claim, yet nobody cares. They all are enthusiastic Renly followers.

Cersei doesn't have the Goldcloaks until they are bought. And we still don't know how that went. Cersei actually think Sansa gave her the means to defeat Ned. She doesn't credit Littlefinger for that, which is odd considering that, in the end, the City Watch were the deciding factor. From what we know about Slynt it seems he was Littlefinger's man first and Cersei's second, but in the end it must have been Lannister gold that decided his allegiance. Because Cersei can buy out Littlefinger any day. And the fact that Slynt rather than Littlefinger originally got Harrenhal implies that Slynt knew his power in this struggle and really was able to sell himself to the highest bidder.

Did Cersei also sent Littlefinger to buy Slynt for her? Did Littlefinger then choose between her and Ned? Or did she send her own envoys to Slynt and buy him before Littlefinger even arrived? We still don't know.

If you view Renly as the guy behind the Robert-Margaery scheme - and that's how we have to see it - then the point of that scheme was mostly to rid the court of Cersei, not to please the Tyrells. Renly intended to use Margaery for his own ends - to destroy Cersei.

And as I laid out above - we still don't really know or understand what exactly the problems were Cersei and Renly had with each other. That's something I really would like to know.

Renly is not exactly a very developed character, and that's a pity.

The difference is one of degree. Daenerys Targaryen is also Renly's cousin. It doesn't seem to be a murder in kinslaying territory, but it is an ugly thing the more honorable advisers of King Robert - Ned and Selmy - are against. And even Pycelle cites the good of the Realm, etc. to justify it. They all know this is an ugly thing. But Renly has no problem with that at all. He shows that he/can be a very cold fish.

Renly is, in my opinion, a man who can project this very pleasant and amicable aura, but he is not afraid to get his hands dirty. Not at all. And that tells us something about him. He is not as worse as Littlefinger or Tywin but he is closer to them than to, say, Robert. Because Robert actually had a change of heart on his deathbed. He is more talk and little action. If he was more surrounded by good people like Ned he would nearly always swing to the right side, making the moral decision in the end. But a man like Renly would always follow his own Machiavellian tendencies.

I don't think Renly wanted Ned or Robert to die - I said Stannis wanted them to die (or didn't care whether they were killed/would fail) because he chose to keep his mouth shut after Jon Arryn died. Stannis believed he knew Jon had been murdered and why and he kept his mouth shut all the same, abandoning his brother and preparing for war. It would have been his duty to talk to Robert about what he thought to be the truth.

Citing self-preservation as an excuse is just that - a (cowardly) excuse. Or do you think Stannis would pardon, say, Davos if Davos learned that Selyse was cuckolding Stannis with Patches and not telling him immediately? I don't think so. The man uses different standards - one for himself and then another for everybody else.

As for Renly - Robert doesn't need a reason to want to rid himself of Cersei. If he had a noble lover he would want to make his new queen that would be enough. And Renly knows that.

Very few people actually know about Renly and Loras. The evidence we have for them living at Storm's End is Renly's secret burial place as well as the fact that it is said that Loras was sent to Storm's End to squire there for Renly. There would have been visits and the like, but Renly is far too young to have been Master of Laws for more than a couple of years.

It would be interesting to know what young Lord Renly did - who he squired for, etc. But we don't. If he was Robert's squire, say, then he would have been at court from an earlier age. If he squired for the castellan of Storm's End - perhaps Cortnay Penrose even back then - then he would have spent more time at Storm's End.

The Faith's power has been broken. And Jocelyn Baratheon did marry her half-nephew Prince Aemon Targaryen. The Baratheons are no strangers to that kind of thing. Incest as per the Faith's definition is just among siblings and parents, not more distant relations.

But then - a widowed Cersei Lannister could also have offered herself in marriage to Renly, along with the office of Lord Regent or, if Cersei wanted to be Queen Regent, Hand and Protector of the Realm. There were ways how these two could have gotten along.

It is possible Stannis learnt of it himself.

Maybe, but he could cause considerable destruction, even ravage the Reach like he did the Riverlands.

Renly didn't talk about the goldcloaks at all so I'm assuming he thought they would be on Cersei's side.

See, your problem is that you think Renly wants to get rid of Cersei merely because he disliked her and you can't figure out the reason for the dislike. It could be that Renly wanted to get rid of Cersei because he wanted The Tyrells to rise up and then he could act as the gatekeeper to royal favour in court, since all the nobles who wanted an in with the new regime  would come to him. Cersei was the 2nd most powerful person in court after Jon Arryn died and the court was filled with Lannisters, so Renly would want Margaery who was sympathetic to his interests to replace her. It could be it was to increase his own power and to help Loras' family.

I don't think people view killing cousins as kinslaying. Rhaegar was Robert's cousin.

Jaime knew. Cersei knew. Stannis knew. Littlefinger knew. Varys knew. Gregor, who isn't exactly sharp, and his followers all knew. That's a lot of people, that's even more than those who knew of the twincest so it must have been some time.

I don't think Robert chose Renly to be Master of Laws because of his ability, but because of nepotism so his age wouldn't matter much. I'd say it was most probable that Renly was named as Master of Laws at 18, close to Stannis' age when he became Master of Ships.

GRRM explains that Stannis didn't tell Robert because he had bad relations with him and wasn't sure Robert would believe him. What if tbat did happen and be was left in KL with Lannistrrs surrounding him on all sides? In this case I think self preservation is a valid excuse.

The High Septon protested against Maegor's marriage to Rhaena.

And it could also be Renly didn't want to get married, considering he's gay and all. The Maragery plan allows him to get power while remaining unattached.

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29 minutes ago, Ran said:

He wasn't available because Robert planned to betroth Joffrey to Sansa, and for all we know had already begun to noodle about it.

But they didn't know.

We have seen ambitious families risk much in the setting, and in history; consider all the mistresses of Louis XIV, the wives of Henry VII, the mistresses of Aegon the Unworthy, and so on and so forth. Some may have thought their women would be the mothers of kings, but others thought... well, no, but it was still pretty great to be lover or wife of a king.

Renly and Loras obviously thought they had a plan that could work, that could make Margaery queen, and for all we know that was the sum total of their ambition at the time. It wasn't a plan based on revealing Cersei's adultery and incest, because they didn't know about it, but we know that Cersei had (at least allegedly) commited crimes that could lead to execution, we know that taking religious vows can break a marriage (see Fireball sending his wife to the silent sisters) and they might have thought they could somehow blackmail Cersei into doing so, etc., etc. 

The fact that we don't know the details of the plan doesn't mean we should suppose that the plan had to be one thing and only that one thing, especially when there's evidence directly contradictory.

 

It would be great if we just don't state our opinions as objective fact, we don't know until we hear it from the author. 

This plan must have been in place a long time back, before Robert went to Winterfell,  because Cersei talks about being set aside when we first see her, so it was still possible to have betrothed Joffrey to Margaery.

And Mace Tyrell values his family, he even enlisted Loras in the Kingsguard so he could protect Margaery and immediately came to her aid when she got imprisoned.

 

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11 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

This plan must have been in place a long time back, before Robert went to Winterfell,  because Cersei talks about being set aside when we first see her, so it was still possible to have betrothed Joffrey to Margaery.

As I said, we don't know when Robert started talking about betrothing Joffrey to Sansa. We also don't know what Renly's plans for Joffrey would be if he displaced Cersei with Margaery. He may indeed have planned to work on Robert to name his children by Margaery as his heirs, he may have planned to have accidents meet the children, he may have planned ... whatever, really. There's a lot of options! We don't know. What we do know, because again there's significant evidence for this, is that Renly was not making his plans with any knowledge of the illegitimacy of Cersei's children. The people arguing otherwise are substituting their belief about what Renly's plan had to have been in the face of contrary evidence.

11 minutes ago, Headfallsoff said:

And Mace Tyrell values his family, he even enlisted Loras in the Kingsguard so he could protect Margaery and immediately came to her aid when she got imprisoned.

Sure he does. He also values the idea of being father of a queen.

Nothing says these people are judging the risks correctly or have foolproof plans. They just have plans based on the risks they are willing to take according to what they judge those risks to be. 

And for that matter, to be very precise, it's not even obvious that Mace Tyrell knew there was a plan being fomented by Renly and Loras to have Margaery bed and wed Robert. We're told Loras was sending letters to Mace urging him to send Margaery to court, and that's all we know about it -- we don't know the reasons given, his responses, etc. This could have been 100% them plotting together without letting other people into the plan.

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1 hour ago, Ran said:

 

As I said, we don't know when Robert started talking about betrothing Joffrey to Sansa. We also don't know what Renly's plans for Joffrey would be if he displaced Cersei with Margaery. He may indeed have planned to work on Robert to name his children by Margaery as his heirs, he may have planned to have accidents meet the children, he may have planned ... whatever, really. There's a lot of options! We don't know. What we do know, because again there's significant evidence for this, is that Renly was not making his plans with any knowledge of the illegitimacy of Cersei's children. The people arguing otherwise are substituting their belief about what Renly's plan had to have been in the face of contrary evidence.

Sure he does. He also values the idea of being father of a queen.

Nothing says these people are judging the risks correctly or have foolproof plans. They just have plans based on the risks they are willing to take according to what they judge those risks to be. 

And for that matter, to be very precise, it's not even obvious that Mace Tyrell knew there was a plan being fomented by Renly and Loras to have Margaery bed and wed Robert. We're told Loras was sending letters to Mace urging him to send Margaery to court, and that's all we know about it -- we don't know the reasons given, his responses, etc. This could have been 100% them plotting together without letting other people into the plan.

No.... we don't know that either. There's a lot of evidence that supports Renly knew. He had Edric Storm in his castle, for example. He was a member of the Small Council, who all knew except for Barristan. He had reasons for waiting to reveal it to Robert. He had reasons for not telling Ned. He had reasons for not admitting he knew about it later. And the examples I gave above showed that kings didn't put aside their wives just because they didn't like them. 

There's also Loras. He would be a terrible brother if he did this knowing full well there was a small chance Cersei would be neutralized. And we know he's not a terrible brother and he loves Margaery, as Joffrey was killed because Olenna feared Loras would become the new Kingslayer if he ever laid a hand on her.

If Renly did that, he would be a full on moron. As I explained in another thread, Renly was very transparent in his efforts, so much so that even Stannis knew. Cersei named Renly one of her "ambitious enemies" in AGOT, if she thought he was planning on replacing her he wouldn't hesitate to get rid of him, which she had already planned to do. Jaime wouldn't hesitate either. That means he worked on this plot for a long time, when there's a very small chance of success and when it put him in danger, without telling Mace when he had every reason to tell him, because he needed his cooperation to get Margaery out of Highgarden, and then wrote to him out of nowhere telling him of a foolhardy plot that would put his daughter in danger and hoped he agreed to it... There's also the miniature of Margaery that was commissioned. Ned thinks Renly is interested in her and is also not disturbed about it, so that means Margaery is of age that Renly taking an interest in her would be appropriate, so at the least she was 13-14, which means it was recent. Renly also had no reason to have a portrait of Margaery unless it was for the plot, so what's most probable is that it was painted for the plot and Loras gave it to Renly when he arrived to KL to carry it out. And that means Mace and his family would have to know, because they must be told the reason for the portrait and Renly has no need to lie. 

And I don't know why people are so passionate about this. Does it make Renly a better or worse person if he did or didn't know? Hardly.

EDIT: And why not betroth Tommen to Margaery, if Joffrey wasn't available? That gives them the same amount of power with less risks - and there's only a 6 year age difference. In the letter it was mentioned that they were trying to make Margaery Robert's queen, not his mistress.

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