Just how many people knew about the incest?

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

If Robert finds out the truth Cersei would not be put aside, she'd be executed. GRRM knows what the term 'set aside' means, as he has used it multiple times in the works on the series.

I agree with you that Robert would likely need plausible reasons to set aside his wife. Renly does not think that. Renly thinks the Warhammer is all you need as king.

It is Cersei who says she will be set aside, not Martin as an independent narrative voice. Indeed, there is no independent narrative voice in asoiaf because all text is conveyed through the beliefs and understandings of the PoV.

So whether Cersei is truly ignorant of her peril, willfully ignorant or just shielding the awful truth from Jaime is unclear. The fact is that if this is the only thing that Cersei fears, then the whole rest of the conversation is pointless. She should have no reason to worry about Ned becoming Hand, or what he might say to Robert or what Lysa knows or does not know. All of this is irrelevant because Robert can send her packing just because he's grown tired of her.

Read correctly, this is Cersei explaining what she is truly concerned about, and then as an afterthought noting that Robert could get himself a new Lyanna once she has been thoroughly shamed and set aside.

The only way any of this works is if Robert can convince the court and the church of Cersei's moral failings. Then he has a free hand to do with her what he will. Without that, he has a succession crisis and civil war in his once peaceful kingdom, and he goes down in history not as the warrior king who overthrew a tyrant and ushered in an era of peace and plenty but a dirty old lecher who tore apart the realm when he shoved his loyal, loving wife aside in order to shag a teenager.

As I say above, marriage is a holy sacrament from the gods, administered by the church. For Robert to undo this without just cause would mean he is exalting himself above the gods, not bound by their laws anymore. And this is something the church and the realm simply won't abide. We saw how the realm reacted with Maegor tried to pull this kind of crap, and he had a dragon.

[Lord Varys]

46 minutes ago, R2D said:

Hey, now I'm undecided. You bring up very good points.

But, Lord Varys, I have a counter point. If Renly tried this method, there's every chance Robert would rather brush it off because no one wants to be a cuckold and he has a habit of being blind to things that are uncomfortable to him.

That is a valid point - but I think my scenario of Renly just giving Robert hints here and there, allowing Robert to come to the conclusion himself rather than trying to sell him the entire incest case, should prevent that from happening.

Also keep in mind that while Robert doesn't want to be a cuckold there are kings in history - both in Westerosi history (Maegor the Cruel, Aegon IV, Cersei later with Margaery) and real world history (Henry VIII) who basically invented accusations of adultery and incest to get rid of queens they wanted to get rid of. It gave the pretext to execute them. Robert could have jumped on such a scenario, too, with Renly's help.

46 minutes ago, R2D said:

Robert may hate the Lannisters, but he was also rather weak willed and spineless and let them control everything, shown when he let Jaime be named Warden of The West, took on two Lannister squires, and let Cersei kill Lady. 

Robert gives Cersei what she wants more often than not, true, but his court is not full of Lannister toadies. There are no Lannister men on Robert's council. Whatever offices and positions the Lannisters don't amount to much. Jaime being named Warden of the East seems to be something that resulted from Robert no longer having Jon Arryn around. Stannis would have left as soon as he realized he would not be named Hand, and it seems that part of the reason why Robert did not allow Lord Robert to become Warden of the East was that Lysa fled from court without even saying goodbye. He interpreted this as a personal insult and slight. Jon's son was named after Robert, and Robert feels responsible for the boy. He wanted to care for him and thought him becoming Lord Tywin's ward was a great idea.

46 minutes ago, R2D said:

So he wouldn't want to go against them. But if Robert fell in love with Margaery, first, he'd want Margaery to be his queen, and that would give him greater cause to oust Cersei. I think this makes more sense than Renly hoping Robert would get rid of his wife because he disliked her.

It might make sense in a fantasy scenario were Renly was very perceptive and smart and knew stuff, but the text tells us that Renly had no clue. So it actually makes no sense.

46 minutes ago, R2D said:

(Actually what makes most sense imo is that Renly had suspicions that Cersei was cheating, but not with whom.)

That also seems to make no sense since nothing implies Renly knew anything. We really are talking about contra-factual scenarios here. We have every reason to believe Renly had no suspicion and basically no reason to doubt that.

I mean, speculating that Renly suspected things is about as likely as assuming Robert suspected stuff, too, but was unwilling to admit it to himself. That's just ridiculous.

46 minutes ago, R2D said:

But re: self preservation again. Renly knew Cersei would kill him because....INTUITION, DUH isn't a good argument. Cersei lived with Stannis in court for 15 years and didn't make any moves against him in all that time. Nor did Stannis suspect she would harm him in any way. (Though we know from Cersei's POV and from Varys that she was actually trying to do that.)

We don't know that for sure. That's part of the problem of George not really flashing out Robert's reign in detail up to that point. We don't know how often Cersei-Stannis or Cersei-Renly clashed. My point merely is that I don't buy the idea that only Cersei is to be blamed for not getting along with Renly. With Stannis it is clear - nobody gets along with him, and nobody likes him, but Cersei could have gotten along with Renly had she tried, just as Renly should have been able to get along with her had he tried.

46 minutes ago, R2D said:

Renly could even bring up how Dragonstone is the seat of the heir, and wouldn't Cersei want that for Tommen instead? Then he could go on living in Storms End.

Dragonstone should be Joffrey's since he is the heir - as it was in the Targaryen days. Which means Tommen would be the one to get Storm's End.

[Ran]

2 hours ago, R2D said:

But re: self preservation again. Renly knew Cersei would kill him because....INTUITION, DUH isn't a good argument.

No, it's not intuition. Both he and Stannis know that when Robert dies, Cersei will not allow anyone to lay claim to influence by blood over the court. Both Renly and Stannis, as Joffreys' "uncles", could make a claim to become his regents or protectors. This would be intolerable for Cersei.

And, as it happens, we have independent confirmation of this, in the quote I already noted from Varys:

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"I expect they will. The queen would not have waited long in any case. Robert was becoming unruly, and she needed to be rid of him to free her hands to deal with his brothers.

Bear in mind that at this time neither Stannis nor Renly have proclaimed for the crown. She needs to "deal" with them to secure the control of the throne by herself and by House Lannister.

 

ETA:

And yet more proof that Renly did not know, but that he was indeed plotting to have Cersei "set aside" (and not necessarily executed). When Tyrion confronts Pycelle in ACoK:

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"He was a wretched king . . . vain, drunken, lecherous . . . he would have set your sister aside, his own queen . . . please . . . Renly was plotting to bring the Highgarden maid to court, to entice his brother . . . it is the gods' own truth . . ."
"And what was Lord Arryn plotting?"

"He knew," Pycelle said. "About . . . about--"

So Pycelle talks about Renly's plot... as being completely unrelated to Jon Arryn having learned about the incest. 

People who tipped their hand about the incest were targets for being killed, as far as Pycelle understood it. But Renly wasn't. Because as Pycelle understood it, Renly didn't know. And yet he was still plotting to have Cersei set aside, so it was understood he was using some other mechanism (probably by royal fiat) to get it done.

I'm going to end up doing a video and just lay down all those quotes and how they all point to the same thing, and maybe we can start considering the mechanics by which a king might set aside a wife that don't depend on formal annulment instead of wasting our time ignoring the text.

[R2D]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a valid point - but I think my scenario of Renly just giving Robert hints here and there, allowing Robert to come to the conclusion himself rather than trying to sell him the entire incest case, should prevent that from happening.

Also keep in mind that while Robert doesn't want to be a cuckold there are kings in history - both in Westerosi history (Maegor the Cruel, Aegon IV, Cersei later with Margaery) and real world history (Henry VIII) who basically invented accusations of adultery and incest to get rid of queens they wanted to get rid of. It gave the pretext to execute them. Robert could have jumped on such a scenario, too, with Renly's help.

Robert gives Cersei what she wants more often than not, true, but his court is not full of Lannister toadies. There are no Lannister men on Robert's council. Whatever offices and positions the Lannisters don't amount to much. Jaime being named Warden of the East seems to be something that resulted from Robert no longer having Jon Arryn around. Stannis would have left as soon as he realized he would not be named Hand, and it seems that part of the reason why Robert did not allow Lord Robert to become Warden of the East was that Lysa fled from court without even saying goodbye. He interpreted this as a personal insult and slight. Jon's son was named after Robert, and Robert feels responsible for the boy. He wanted to care for him and thought him becoming Lord Tywin's ward was a great idea.

It might make sense in a fantasy scenario were Renly was very perceptive and smart and knew stuff, but the text tells us that Renly had no clue. So it actually makes no sense.

That also seems to make no sense since nothing implies Renly knew anything. We really are talking about contra-factual scenarios here. We have every reason to believe Renly had no suspicion and basically no reason to doubt that.

I mean, speculating that Renly suspected things is about as likely as assuming Robert suspected stuff, too, but was unwilling to admit it to himself. That's just ridiculous.

We don't know that for sure. That's part of the problem of George not really flashing out Robert's reign in detail up to that point. We don't know how often Cersei-Stannis or Cersei-Renly clashed. My point merely is that I don't buy the idea that only Cersei is to be blamed for not getting along with Renly. With Stannis it is clear - nobody gets along with him, and nobody likes him, but Cersei could have gotten along with Renly had she tried, just as Renly should have been able to get along with her had he tried.

Dragonstone should be Joffrey's since he is the heir - as it was in the Targaryen days. Which means Tommen would be the one to get Storm's End.

"Robert was blind to things he'd rather not see". That means Robert would go on ignoring any of Renly's hints or what they could mean, because he doesn't accept anything until it's staring him in the face. Consider how he didn't accept that he was wrong about his orders to kill Daenerys and that Ned was right until he was on his deathbed.

And aren't you arguing against yourself here? That's exactly it, Renly's MO is not to be subtle or even cunning. If he was, he would have cultivated Lord Stark as an ally instead of alienating him, he would have made the case Stannis practised an unlawful religion, he would have backed Stannis and then assasinated him instead of being seen as a usurper. So in all likelihood he would not go for the slow and steady route. Renly's plan if he knew would probably be to plop Margaery into Robert's bed and then let the adultery be discovered in some manner and hope things went his way.

Robert could have taken Ned's side against Cersei but he wouldn't because he just hated conflict that much. He would need due cause to get rid of Cersei, especially when doing so would cause a political storm of epic proportions. If Renly gets him to fall in love with Margaery, Robert would start feeling trapped in his marriage, and then Renly could play the part of the concerned brother and bring his suspicions about Cersei to Robert, Robert would likely sieze on this chance to be rid of her and get to be with Maid Margaery once and for all.

And I am not at all arguing that Renly is perceptive. He could have been hinted about Cersei's adultery like how Stannis seemed to have been. Arguing Robert had suspicions makes no sense because Robert didn't have a plot to make Margaery queen. And "Renly was just dumb and naive" etc etc can't be argued, because his shadow backers, the Tyrells are not, and they were part of the plot. 

I was talking to Bernie Mac here actually, and I agree with you, I was arguing Renly wasn't trying to replace Cersei out of fear for his life.

I imagine Joffrey would stay in KL since he's the heir, and so Tommen could get Dragonstone.

@ Ran 

Renly had no way of knowing Robert would die any time soon. Robert was only in his 30s. And if he did know, it would only be because he knew of the incest. So....really a case of a snake eating it's own tail there.

That's because Jon Arryn was investigating the incest and Pycelle was a Lannister spy so he knew about it. Renly was likely not investigating anything, because that's not how he does things , and because his method was for Robert to fall for Margaery and then to try to convince Robert. It hinged on Robert's interest in Margaery, not proof (though if he wanted proof of some sort, he could have procured Edric Storm from his castle and he might have met Gendry while shopping for armour).

Though this is all speculation.

[Ran]

52 minutes ago, R2D said:

Renly had no way of knowing Robert would die any time soon. Robert was only in his 30s. And if he did know, it would only be because he knew of the incest. So....really a case of a snake eating it's own tail there.

My reference to Renly not needing intuition to know he was in danger was when he fled King's Landing after Ned turned down his offer to strike immediately. He knew he'd be in the black cells right next to Ned if he waited around to see what happened thanks to Ned planning to delay making any moves until after Robert was dead. This was not because he knew about the incest, but because Cersei hated him and Stannis, and wanted sole control of Joffrey and the throne with no challengers to pre-eminence.

52 minutes ago, R2D said:

That's because Jon Arryn was investigating the incest and Pycelle was a Lannister spy so he knew about it.

But he doesn't think there's anything strange that Renly is trying to set Cersei aside while believing that Renly knows nothing about the incest. Just as Stannis thinks there's nothing strange in Renly plotting while not having knowledge or suspicion of the incest, and indeed denying it to his face! 

Again, Renly did not know or suspect. Everything points to it. The only "evidence" against it is the same setting aside of Cersei that Stannis, Cersei, and Pycelle all indicate was Renly's plan while all three believed he was unaware of the incest. 

To put it another way, there's far more evidence that Renly did not know but was plotting then there is that the plot turned on Renly knowing.

[R2D]

8 minutes ago, Ran said:

My reference to Renly not needing intuition to know he was in danger was when he fled King's Landing after Ned turned down his offer to strike immediately. He knew he'd be in the black cells right next to Ned if he waited around to see what happened thanks to Ned planning to delay making any moves until after Robert was dead. This was not because he knew about the incest, but because Cersei hated him and Stannis, and wanted sole control of Joffrey and the throne with no challengers to pre-eminence.

But he doesn't think there's anything strange that Renly is trying to set Cersei aside while believing that Renly knows nothing about the incest. Just as Stannis thinks there's nothing strange in Renly plotting while not having knowledge or suspicion of the incest, and indeed denying it to his face! 

Again, Renly did not know or suspect. Everything points to it. The only "evidence" against it is the same setting aside of Cersei that Stannis, Cersei, and Pycelle all indicate was Renly's plan while all three believed he was unaware of the incest. 

To put it another way, there's far more evidence that Renly did not know but was plotting then there is that the plot turned on Renly knowing.

Double back a bit here. It was argued that Renly was trying to make Margaery queen because he knew Cersei would try to get rid of him. But Renly was safe as long as Robert was alive, and Robert wasn't going to up and die any time soon. So imo his actions against her before the tragic boar hunt was to increase his own power and the Tyrells power, not to save his own skin. Indeed as has been repeatedly pointed out he could have made himself a useful ally to the Lannisters if he was scared instead of moving against them.

Hm...maybe. If there was precedent of a marriage being set aside because the king simply did not like his wife that's all it would take to convince me.

[Megorova]

Edric Storm was fostered at Storm's End for many years, when Renly was still living there. So, if Renly ever saw one of Robert's other bastards, he could have started to suspect, that because Cersei's children don't look like Robert's other children, then they are not his. And then Littlefinger gave him more clues, at about the same time, when Jon Arryn started his investigation. He could have given those clues to Renly indirectly, thru one of his agents.

Brella - 1. Renly's ex-servant, 2. which later became Sansa's servant, 3. and currently is working at a brothel as a washerwoman, supposedly because she couldn't find a job elsewhere (majority of brothels at KL are owned by LF), 4. after Joffrey's poisoning, when she was questioned, she misdirected Tywin to think that Sansa is intending to return to The North, 5. hinted to Brienne, that if she wants to find Sansa, she should look for Dontos Hollard, and 6. she said to Podrick that Brienne is looking for Sansa, and that if Podrick will go after Brienne, then thru Sansa he would be able to find Tyrion.

So, my conclusion is that all this time Brella was (and still is) working for Littlefinger, even when she was running Renly's household at KL. She has connections with brothels, so she could have sort of accidentally said to Renly something about Robert's newest bastard-child - Barra. Renly knew Edric Storm, probably he have met Mya Stone, and after hearing about Barra, that she looks like Robert/like Mya Stone as a child, Renly could have realised, that Cersei's children are not Robert's. And the one who "enlightened" him (indirectly) was Littlefinger.

[Ran]

24 minutes ago, R2D said:

It was argued that Renly was trying to make Margaery queen because he knew Cersei would try to get rid of him.

Ah, I'm not sure he was thinking about that per se. As you say, he was aiming to increase his influence and that of the Tyrells, and to diminish that of the Lannisters.

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Hm...maybe. If there was precedent of a marriage being set aside because the king simply did not like his wife that's all it would take to convince me.

Do you feel that this is in keeping with Renly Baratheon's views on the matter of precedents and legalities?

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"Tell me, what right did my brother Robert ever have to the Iron Throne?" He did not wait for an answer. "Oh, there was talk of the blood ties between Baratheon and Targaryen, of weddings a hundred years past, of second sons and elder daughters. No one but the maesters care about any of it. Robert won the throne with his warhammer."

He is not a legalist. He does not think precedent really determines things. He believes in kratocracy, that those who have the power to seize control should do so, and should use that power to do what they think best rather than allowing past precedents to hamper them.

When he was plotting, what he saw was that the Lannisters had inordinate influence despite being isolated among the Great Houses. If Cersei were displaced and Tywin Lannister rose in rebellion, he would do it alone, as Renly could see that the Vale, the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, the Reach, and the lords of the narrow sea would unite against the West (Dorne alone might not fall in line, but they would surely stay out of the business entirely rather than joining the Lannister side), and Robert would simply have his way.

This is exactly how a kratocratic monarch, the kind that Renly believed Robert should be and that he himself aspired to be after Robert's death, would do things. Hence, needing a "precedent" for the setting aside of a wife is a mistake. The point is that people believed that Robert could indeed try to do so, trusting in the strength of his alliances and his power to be able to have his way.

[R2D]

32 minutes ago, Ran said:

Ah, I'm not sure he was thinking about that per se. As you say, he was aiming to increase his influence and that of the Tyrells, and to diminish that of the Lannisters.

Do you feel that this is in keeping with Renly Baratheon's views on the matter of precedents and legalities?

He is not a legalist. He does not think precedent really determines things. He believes in kratocracy, that those who have the power to seize control should do so, and should use that power to do what they think best rather than allowing past precedents to hamper them.

When he was plotting, what he saw was that the Lannisters had inordinate influence despite being isolated among the Great Houses. If Cersei were displaced and Tywin Lannister rose in rebellion, he would do it alone, as Renly could see that the Vale, the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands, the Reach, and the lords of the narrow sea would unite against the West (Dorne alone might not fall in line, but they would surely stay out of the business entirely rather than joining the Lannister side), and Robert would simply have his way.

This is exactly how a kratocratic monarch, the kind that Renly believed Robert should be and that he himself aspired to be after Robert's death, would do things. Hence, needing a "precedent" for the setting aside of a wife is a mistake. The point is that people believed that Robert could indeed try to do so, trusting in the strength of his alliances and his power to be able to have his way.

It could also be to help his brother in a way - Renly would see how unhappy he was in his marriage with Cersei and want him to get a nice new wife. Or maybe that's too charitable a view.

It could even be as simple a reason as wanting a valid reason for Loras to be at court, by acting as Margaery's sworn sword. Probably the reason so many knew of the relationship is that he stayed with Renly even after his squiring was over. 

No, but I think it's in keeping with the Tyrells' views. As pointed out elsewhere in this thread, Mace Tyrell had to know of the plot. That said, Mace did back a usurper and the Tyrells had been craving royal favour since the Rebellion. So yeah, I could see them going for it. But only if Lady O's complaints were ignored.

[Bernie Mac]

50 minutes ago, R2D said:

It could also be to help his brother in a way - Renly would see how unhappy he was in his marriage with Cersei and want him to get a nice new wife. Or maybe that's too charitable a view.

It could be. But we have Renly's words to Ned on Robert's deathbed expressly telling Ned that Cersei was a danger to the both of them, we also have Cersei's POV that she always planned on ridding herself of Stannis and Renly even before Ned became Hand.

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It could even be as simple a reason as wanting a valid reason for Loras to be at court, by acting as Margaery's sworn sword. Probably the reason so many knew of the relationship is that he stayed with Renly even after his squiring was over. 

Loras is a champion Knight, the son of one of the most powerful Lords in the realm and an ambassador of the second wealthiest region. He's also liked by both Robert and the smallfolk. Loras does not need a reason to be at court.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Ah, I'm not sure he was thinking about that per se. As you say, he was aiming to increase his influence and that of the Tyrells, and to diminish that of the Lannisters.

 

I think it can be both. Usually people make decisions based on a variety of reasons, Renly thinking Cersei is a threat while wanting to increase his influence are not mutually exclusive.

Lord Renly took a step back, taut as a bowstring. "Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late . . . for both of us."

Renly suspects that Cersei is against him and we know from Cersei's POV that she was. Also in this plan Joffrey would be King, Ned his regent, Sansa Queen. Renly does not actually increase his influence in the situation he presented to Ned, Ned does, Renly not so much. His plan seemed to be based on stopping Cersei gaining control.

 

 

[Ran]

9 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

Renly suspects that Cersei is against him and we know from Cersei's POV that she was. Also in this plan Joffrey would be King, Ned his regent, Sansa Queen. Renly does not actually increase his influence in the situation he presented to Ned, Ned does, Renly not so much. His plan seemed to be based on stopping Cersei gaining control.

Sure, but the point here is that Renly did not plot over getting rid of Cersei over some sense of urgency that he was in  imminent danger. He recognized that sometime in the distant future, when Robert died, they would be in conflict. But a lot can happen in ten or twenty years.

His primary motivator was ambition, simple enough. Anything else was secondary.

 

[Bernie Mac]

2 hours ago, R2D said:

Consider how he didn't accept that he was wrong about his orders to kill Daenerys and that Ned was right until he was on his deathbed.

Robert was not wrong. By the time the series is over Dany and her invading foreign army will invade Westeros. She does not care that Robert is dead, she'd still be invading even if Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella were legitimate Baratheon heirs.

Robert's decision was correct for the world he lived in. Jon Arryn, Ned Stark and Barristan were wrong on this occasion.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It is Cersei who says she will be set aside, not Martin as an independent narrative voice. Indeed, there is no independent narrative voice in asoiaf because all text is conveyed through the beliefs and understandings of the PoV.

She lives in that world. If the concept does not exist how is she using it? And she's not the first to use, it many other characters have talked about the same concept.

Clearly the concept exists in Westeros. When characters bring up putting wives aside they are not looked at like they are speaking a different language.

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Read correctly, this is Cersei explaining what she is truly concerned about, and then as an afterthought noting that Robert could get himself a new Lyanna once she has been thoroughly shamed and set aside.

lol no, it is not. This is Cersei worried about being put aside due to Robert becoming more restless, not due to the truth 

"My husband grows more restless every day. Having Stark beside him will only make him worse. He's still in love with the sister, the insipid little dead sixteen-year-old. How long till he decides to put me aside for some new Lyanna?"    

Robert is growing more and more unhappy in his life, he craves adventure and the past. His taking half of the royal court to Wintefell on a half year journey, him wanting to participate in tourneys after years of not even being in a suit of armour, presumably him going after younger women like the mother of Barra and his growing resentment of Joffrey are all evidence of him becoming more restless and unruly.

 

 

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

The only way any of this works is if Robert can convince the court and the church of Cersei's moral failings.

No, he's King and not a cautious one nut a reckless one. If he knew the truth he's convinced that it is true he's not waiting on a court to decide if its true.

Tywin may offer that to his son Tyrion but Robert would not.  Ned who knows Robert as well as most knows exactly what Robert would do

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

Then he has a free hand to do with her what he will. Without that, he has a succession crisis and civil war in his once peaceful kingdom,

No, not really. He did not have a succession crisis before Joffrey was born and he would not have one had all three of Cersei's children died of natural causes. He has brothers and is still capable of having more heirs, he after all has a new born daughter in AGOT.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

and he goes down in history not as the warrior king who overthrew a tyrant and ushered in an era of peace and plenty but a dirty old lecher who tore apart the realm when he shoved his loyal, loving wife aside in order to shag a teenager.

He's also going down as the Usurper King. Robert only starts caring about his reputation when he is on his deathbed when he asks Ned if he was worse than Aerys.

Your arguments thus far are not being true to the published work in the series.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

As I say above, marriage is a holy sacrament from the gods, administered by the church.

It is, but we have zero idea how they view putting wives aside or if Kings are above the law in this regard. There is no actual evidence that the Faith has an issue with king putting aside their wives.

Quentyn Ball actually made his wife join the Silent Sisters so he could be eligible for the Kingsguard. There are ways for powerful men to get what they want and Robert is the most powerful man alive.

I'm not saying he would do this, but that nothing suggests that an irresponsible King like Robert would not have the authority to do what he wanted.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

 

For Robert to undo this without just cause would mean he is exalting himself above the gods, not bound by their laws anymore.

You are going to have to back this up with evidence as you are making assumptions about the Faith and the Laws of Westeros that, to my knowledge, have never been stated in the books.

Your head cannon is your head cannon.

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

We saw how the realm reacted with Maegor tried to pull this kind of crap, and he had a dragon.

Maegor did not pull this crap, he committed polygamy.

 

21 minutes ago, Ran said:

Sure, but the point here is that Renly did not plot over getting rid of Cersei over some sense of urgency that he was in  imminent danger. He recognized that sometime in the distant future, when Robert died, they would be in conflict. But a lot can happen in ten or twenty years.

His primary motivator was ambition, simple enough. Anything else was secondary.

 

I agree in regards to the marriage plan, but obviously once Robert was on his deathbed his priorities switched from ambition to self preservation.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I honestly don't see how you could think that people could easily deduce a sexual relationship between Cersei and Jaime but remain utterly oblivious to the possibility that Cersei's blonde, green-eyed children are Jaime's. Robert clearly does not suspect the former, so it stands to reason that he would not suspect the latter, and most people follow this same track because Cersei would have to be absolutely mad to think she could get away with such a thing. 

Because two people having a sexual relationship at point A doesn't allow you to conclude that they also had had such a relationship at point B. Jaime and Cersei could have technically started to fuck only a couple of years or months ago. It would be still treason, of course, but it would not mean that Cersei's children are not Robert's.

I mean, George himself knows all that and he has Cersei play with that fact in ADwD when she confesses her fornication. She admits to have had sex after Robert's death - in our analogy at point C - but stalwartly refuses to admit that she committed adultery while Robert was still alive.

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Nobody, not even Jon Arryn, has proof of anything. It is the mere accusation that Cersei is worried about, and the possibility that Robert would believe those accusations. Whether Robert was with Cersei or not is irrelevant (and the text shows that, pretty early in the marriage, even when he was with her, drunk and stinking of wine, Cersei never let him inside); what's important is whether Jaime was with her.

Both would be important if you try to convince Robert. Because Robert is also aware that his children all look like Cersei and he is the only guy who actually can know what he and Cersei were doing in bed. The fact that he never wondered - which any man who didn't have sex with his wife around the time a child must have been conceived would - implies that he is reasonably certain that he is the father of her children. And that's a problem anyone trying to convince him that his children aren't his children has to face.

Because there is a huge difference between Robert believing Cersei and Jaime have an affair and convincing Robert that his children aren't his children but Jaime's.

And the fact that Jon never told Robert anything and only mumbled his cryptic nonsense when he finally closed his eyes sort of implies, in my opinion, that he was not yet (completely) convinced that Stannis' suspicions were correct.

Which would mean that Jon Arryn may also have not *known* that Cersei and Jaime had an affair nor that Robert's children were not his.

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Yes, as I said, Tyrion could go either way here. What we do know is that between him suspiciously eyeing his brother and sister when discussing Bran and then revealing to Cersei that he knows she is fucking Jaime, there is no "Ah Ha" moment in the text when he comes upon this revelation, nor is their a subsequent moment when he recalls when all of this became clear to him. So based on what we actually know, the evidence strongly suggests that Tyrion has known for some time.

Just as there is no 'Ah ha' moment in relation to Aegon, despite the fact that there are hints that Tyrion was catching some of the hints the narrator gives us - Illyrio's sadness, the blue-purple eyes, Griff being a lord, Griff having red hair under the blue dye, etc.

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Hmm, no poison in the wine . . . I wonder if that same thought could be applied in another situation.  It is certainly possible that Varys could have set all this up, but it's an iffy plan at best. Did he supply all wine sellers, cheese merchants, fish mongers, spice dealers etc. with fake poisoned goods? Even those coming from Asshai'i, Quarth, Yi Ti? How could he count on Dany stopping at this particular merchant among the hundreds that are there?

Think about the time line. The Pentoshi (!) caravan was the first to arrive in Vaes Dothrak from the West since the Small Council had decided to murder Daenerys. Do you think there is a vast army of freelancer poisoners risking to poison a Dothraki khal and his khaleesi in the middle of Vaes Dothrak? I don't think so. It is also quite silly to assume the Iron Throne would ever reward a guy who claimed who killed the targets - he could only get away, one assumes, if he used a poison that simulated a death by illness - so how is Robert going to know the guy the claiming he killed Dany and Drogo and Viserys III is telling the truth?

Only actual agents of the Iron Throne could do the job - and they would do it because they are paid and/or promised rewards. The wine seller had a closed cask of allegedly poisoned wine. He would not have poisoned it himself but would have gotten it from his superiors.

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A more likely scenario, IMO, is that Jorah received word that Robert was offering a lordship to whomever kills her, and he put two-and-two together on the spot because by this time he is in love with Dany and doesn't want to see her killed.

Jorah would have gotten letters from both Varys and Illyrio telling him about the attempt - Illyrio warning him, Varys telling him that Robert had sent out agents but he, Varys, did not want Dany dead. That's what Jorah later confesses to Dany in ASoS.

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In the end, though, this is not what I'm talking about. Lots of people can manipulate situations to their advantage, even seeming dolts like Ned and Theon. Littlefinger uses words to trick people into thinking they are doing things of their own volition (ie, the dwarf joust, the Loras appointment), when in fact they are doing his bidding. Schemer he may be, but I see no evidence that Varys is this skilled.

Varys is more subtle. Littlefinger only put thoughts in Joffrey's head, and that's not that difficult. We also see how Littlefinger gets manipulated by Tyrion in ACoK. His greed gets the better of him, whereas Varys is smart enough to see through the ruse.

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Why would Tywin need Varys' help to get Shae to his chambers? Who is he hiding from? Who is going to tell Tywin that he is not allowed to have a bed-warmer?

Nobody knew that Tywin had taken the whore in his chambers, no? And it is quite clear, one assumes, why he would do that - because Tywin cannot be seen fucking a whore - especially not his dwarf son's former mistress - just as he couldn't be seen frequenting a brothel.

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Varys probably knew Shae was there the same way he knows about everything else, little birds. Sure, Varys knows that Tyrion has gone to great lengths to keep Shae a secret, mostly from Cersei and Tywin, but to say his sole objective is to alienate Tyrion from his family is understating it. His objective is to use people's secrets to advance his own agenda, whatever it is.

Sure, but he quickly realizes Tyrion could be a great asset and does everything to ensure that the man abandons his family.

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I believe it went like this:

• LF alerted Stannis to the incest, something that Stannis had probably already considered. He also subtly hinted (aka, put the idea into his head) that simply going to Robert would not be enough, but if a trusted friend were to conduct an actual investigation into Robert's bastards . . .
• Stannis brings JA into it, exactly as LF wanted.
• LF waits until the investigation is underway and the book is in hand and then tells Lysa to drop the poison. Ta-da, a murder of a man who is directly investigating a dark secret held by very powerful political interests rather than a man who is about to deprive his screwball wife of the sickly son she obsesses over. And nobody but nobody could connect this to a Machiavellian scheme to unleash war on the 7K.

Do you see Littlefinger as this comic book villain with a giant master plan? He knows what he wants, of course, but he doesn't have a giant plan. Littlefinger didn't necessarily a war as soon as it came - he had no problem with it. But he has nothing to do with the start of the war. He couldn't foresee Tyrion's arrest and didn't want that to happen, and he had nothing to do with Robert's death. He himself offered Ned a deal that could have prevented the war.

Littlefinger wanted Ned and Cat in KL, he wanted to replace Lysa with Cat and Jon with Ned, hoping Ned could help him rise even higher.

He improvises a lot, which he can because basically everybody in KL besides Stannis likes him.

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Now we have LF as the architect -- manipulator, if you will -- of these events, rather than, once again, just the beneficiary of dumb luck.

You really make him appear greater than he is. Yes, the Lysa revelation in ASoS was a great shock, and while that was very well played, it didn't cause the war. It just fueled already existing animosities and mistrust. Littlefinger shares part of the blame for the war, but him nudging people along does not make him more responsible or guilty than the likes of Jaime, Catelyn, Ned, Tywin, Robb, etc. 

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If all of this was simply to solve Lysa's problem, then there would be no need to send the letter to Winterfell, no need to get involved with the dagger, no need to finger Tyrion . . . As per his MO, however, LF is manipulating everyone here: JA, Stannis, Lysa, Ned, Catelyn, Tyrion, Cersei . . . It's all part of his massive power grab.

It would be a rather nonsensical move to tell Jon something via Stannis and then think you can stop Jon from telling Robert via poison. As things turned out Jon didn't tell Robert, but not because the poison prevented him - he was with Jon and spent hours with him. It is just lucky coincidence that Jon never told him, just as it was later lucky coincidence that Ned never told Renly or Robert or hundreds of other lords.

Littlefinger would have sold Jon's murder to Lysa as (1) the solution to her immediate problem, and (2) the first step in their grand scheme to finally get married. Because that clearly was 'the plan' as sold to Lysa. It is why she kept the Vale out of the later conflict. But Littlefinger's own plan A wouldn't have been to hook up with the fat woman he never loved. He wanted Cat - which changed when he realized that Cat was truly in camp Stark now but then he saw Sansa...

But for Littlefinger's power game it is utterly irrelevant who gives him a great seat to make him a suitable husband for Catelyn, Lysa, or Sansa - somebody has to. It turned out to be Tywin in the end, but it could have been Ned - I'm sure a great seat and Sansa's hand would have been 'the modest reward' he would have demanded from Ned in exchange for his help in the succession crisis.

Do you know that short video from George about Littlefinger's character? It makes clear that Littlefinger is actually a complex character whose power agenda is at odds with his sexual and romantic desires. For George there are three Littlefinger's (two of which Sansa has seen in the books): The one who sees Sansa as a pawn (the manipulator/player), the one who sees her as his daughter (the romantic young boy who was in love with Catelyn seeing Sansa as the daughter they should have had), and the one who wants Sansa to love/marry him to finally realize the fantasy of his childhood in the only way possible.

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What rewards would Jon and Stannis reap? Robert is now going to give them carte blanche to dismiss the man who has enriched the realm to the nth degree? And then they would rat out this same man who was responsible for bringing them these great honors in the first place? Robert would also rely on Littlefinger to war against Tywin, since you can't field an army without coin. And whatever enmity exists between Stannis and Littlefinger pales in comparison to that between Stannis and Robert. So, no, Littlefinger is perfectly safe if this tale reaches Robert's ears, but LF is aware of exactly where the investigation stands, so he is able to strike JA down long before it gets to this point.

If a scandal as huge as the Cersei/Jaime thing came out we would see a lot of arrests. Scores, perhaps hundreds of people ending up in black cells, being accused or suspected of having a hand in the thing. Littlefinger was friends with Cersei and the Lannisters. He could become entangled in the entire thing, especially if Jon and Stannis also wanted to get rid of him. Robert would be so enraged that he would not act rationally.

And the war with Tywin could become a small affair. The children might not be killed immediately, so they could be used as hostages. Would Tywin call his banners risking the deaths of his grandchildren? We don't know. In any case, the entire Realm would stand with Robert in this (and Dorne would not stand against him), so this should be a minor affair. Not something the Crown needs vast amounts of coin for.

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In what way is Littlefinger under "Lannister influence"? He has borrowed from Tywin, OK, but he has also borrowed from Mace Tyrell, the Iron Bank and any number of trading cartels. He has been Robert's loyal man all along, doing more to bring wealth and stability to the realm than any man alive, save perhaps Jon Arryn.

He has connections to them, just like any other courtier. You could just as well ask what connections various courtiers that were accused of having slept with Margaery actually have with her - possibly none. But all Jon/Stannis - or anyone, really - would need to rid the court of Littlefinger in such a scandal would be to accuse him. Then the torturers would see to it that he confessed.

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I believe LF started with Stannis, but sure, there is no reason why Lysa could not have dropped the hint to Jon. Stannis has a greater interest in making a stink of it, though.

One could also imagine Varys told Littlefinger about the investigation - if Lysa didn't - so that they solve the Jon problem for him. Chances are not that bad that Lysa would refuse to murder her husband unless she was absolutely sure she would never be accused of the crime. She is not exactly the most determined or stable of characters...

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All right, so then before he fled, why didn't Stannis just go to Robert and tell him everything, if Jon's death makes Lannister guilt so eminently clear? Remember, at this time, no one is even sure if Jon was poisoned, so Stannis now has two unproven suspicions to deal with.

Because he didn't give a damn. He no longer cared whether his brother lived or died. Not after the man had decided to make Ned Stark his Hand.

Stannis loudly proclaims that Cersei murdered Jon Arryn later in the books. He believes this as firmly as he believes that Cersei's children are Jaime's. Why couldn't he tell that to Robert? There is only one answer - he did not want to do it. Not himself, not via envoy or raven, and not via Ned. He wanted to wait, prepare for war, and take the Iron Throne when Robert was dead.

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I guess I don't understand your original point then. You said LF may have told Robert long ago, but now he never would have because it would benefit Stannis. Call me confused.

It was a hypothetical scenario, a scenario to underline that Littlefinger has no motive to tell anyone about the incest thing.

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Yes, we can be sure about Pycelle because at the time he knew Cersei wanted him dead because he (Arryn) knew about . . . about . . . He wouldn't simply assume that Cersei wanted him dead unless he knew the reason why.

Why not? If he is truly her creature ... but I already addressed that, no? Pycelle could also have realized that Cersei was afraid of the mere accusation that she may have an affair with Jaime.

Because that alone would have destroyed her most definitely.

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According to Jaime, both he and Cersei cooked up the scheme to be together on their own.

Why do we assume that Jaime knows what happened between Varys/Cersei or Aerys/Cersei? Jaime actually needed to be fucked into thinking joining the KG was a good idea... He didn't exactly have the thinking part in that 'plot'. I can also not buy any scenario that has 14-15-year-old Cersei convince the Mad King that making Jaime a KG is a great idea. She is Tywin's daughter, meaning she wouldn't have spent any time alone with paranoid Aerys. Anything coming from her would also be seen as something Tywin may have sent her to say, so Aerys wouldn't follow such advice. Not to mention that Aerys should have been very keen to know why the hell Tywin's daughter wanted her brother to join the KG...

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Whether Baelor actually consummated or not is irrelevant. The church ruled that he had not and was granted an annulment so he could go off and pray and become a hermit king, not to climb all over a younger queen. WIthout the incest charge, Robert can make no such claims about Cersei's fidelity nor his intentions.

Baelor set aside Daena in accordance with the Faith - he was a very pious guy, after all. But that doesn't mean other kings have to go down his route.

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No, it is not obvious that any king could set his queen aside for any reason at all. As I've point out, if this were the case that we would have seen at least one example of it. Tywin and Tyrion provide the clearest explanation of the rules, and they are perfectly in keeping with our own history.

They only talk about mortal men, not kings. Tysha was also set aside without the Faith. Tywin did that all by himself.

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Why would Tywin need to make a point of saying "a marriage that has not been consummated" when the same thing applies to all marriages? Why is Cersei so concerned about Margaery marrying Tommen when it could be set aside at any time for any reason? Over and over and over again, we get examples of why even kings cannot simply dispose of their wives just because they are old and hoary. Even Aegon the Unworthy had to go through the whole mummer's farce of accusing his wife of adultery and then throwing it to an uncertain fate in the TbC. Why would he do that rather than exercise is right as king to just send her packing?

Because Margaery being Tommen's wife makes her queen and allows her to be close to Tommen, gaining influence over him. Aegon IV didn't want to set aside Naerys, he wanted to ruin her and Aemon's and Daeron's reputation. Naerys begged him to end their marriage and allow her to join the Faith, but he refused.

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Ancient customs and pre-Conquest traditions are irrelevant. Since the creation of this kingdom, no king on the Iron Throne has ever treated his queen this way, even those who despised their queens.

And this is relevant how? Ancient precedents could be cited, and were apparently in the heads of Cersei - who feared that Robert would set her aside. Just as Renly thought this could happen, not giving a damn about things you apparently think is important in Westeros.

Those people don't much less about their own laws and customs and regulations than some readers do.

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Marriage is a holy sacrament -- a gift from the gods administered by the church. Man and woman pledge themselves to one another, making a solemn promise to the gods to forsake all others and promise to bring new souls into the world, with the septon declaring them "one flesh, one heart, one soul, now and forever." The king may be the maker of laws on earth, but this is a law of heaven, so for Robert to up and declare that he is no longer married through no fault of Cersei's, simply because he wants to shag a younger, prettier women, is the same as him saying that he is exalted above the gods and is no longer bound by their laws. This is simply not something that the Church, nor the people, will abide. If he were to try such a thing, his kingdom would be torn asunder and his ability to rule would be crippled. This is why he must prove that Cersei violated the marriage in a profound way, even going so far as to execute her as a traitor (a violation of his law, not the god's), and then disinheriting the children -- but only if the realm, and the church in particular, can be convinced of her guilt as well.

The king is the master of the Faith, not the other way around. That's how the power dynamic is since Maegor and Jaehaerys I - Jaehaerys I's power over the Faith is much larger than we ever suspected, considering he not controlled who would become High Septon but also had the power to add a new doctrine to the Faith. And Baelor the Blessed seemed to have wielded a similar power over the Faith.

To a king, marriage basically is what he decides, not what the Faith does. The Faith serves the Iron Throne, not the other way around.

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Whatever reasons there may be for why this or that king simply didn't rid himself of his unloved queen, the fact remains that this has never happened, even when kings openly loathed their queens. So the only logical conclusion is that kings need a better reason to undo their marriages; namely, some unseemly moral turpitude by their queens.

Which king was ever in a position where he really wanted to be rid of her? In the dragon days it would have been utter madness to anger your sister-wife in such a manner - and Aegon IV never wanted to rid himself of Naerys. He liked fucking her to death, basically.

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Lady Olenna is the brains in Highgardern. This much is eminently clear from the text. She makes all the important decisions -- outwardly deflecting to Mace but privately hectoring him mercilessly to do as he is told. Margaery is not going to marry anyone without Olenna's leave, and she is certainly not going to become a second wife whose children will be fourth or fifth in line to the throne. Sorry, no way, no how.

Sorry, it is nowhere stated that Olenna has that kind of power. We don't even know whether she had a say in the Renly-Margaery match. Could be, but since she was apparently against 'King Renly' I doubt anybody asked her opinion on the matter.

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Olenna agreed to the Joffrey match because it was the quickest, easiest way to put a Tyrell on the Iron Throne. If Joffrey hadn't eaten the poison pie, she would have had her goal within a year or two. Like all highborn maidens, Margaery's happiness, even her safety, comes second to the interests of her house. They are all, Olenna included, pieces in the Game of Thrones.

Olenna was never asked whether she wanted to support the Joffrey match, either. She certainly made her voice heard and influenced the decision-making process at Highgarden, but we have no idea who decided that. We don't even know whether she is still particularly interest to see a Tyrell become queen or give birth to a new king.

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Cersei lays out the whole reason why she is concerned. Indeed, if we accept your premise that Robert could just dump her at will, then the entire conversation is pointless. Cersei should have no reason to fear Ned becoming Hand, or what he might say to Robert or what Lysa knows or does not know. None of this matters because Robert doesn't need any of it to get rid of her. As the conversation makes clear, though, all of this does matter because if Robert, or anyone else, can make these charges stick, then he could dump her, dispossess the children and take a new wife. What you see as the sum total of what frightens Cersei is merely an afterthought to what is really keeping her up at night.

She fears that Robert will eventually set her aside for new Lyanna, she does not think that this is going to happen now or tomorrow. She also, quite correctly, fears that Ned might make things worse - because Robert will listen to Ned. Which means he is no longer/to a lesser degree being influenced by her.

I mean, seriously, Robert does not yet want to set aside Cersei in AGoT. That's why she is still his queen.

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Ran said:

I'm going to end up doing a video and just lay down all those quotes and how they all point to the same thing, and maybe we can start considering the mechanics by which a king might set aside a wife that don't depend on formal annulment instead of wasting our time ignoring the text.

Well, I'm going to make a thread for that thing. Because that's really an interesting topic, and it would be interesting to get something from George eventual on that thing because while FaB elaborated on the whole 'annulment because non-consummation' thing, we still have no real concept on how this 'setting aside thing' is going.

I'd say the best legal hint that a king can basically do that by fiat is the thing that he can also legitimize bastards without going through the Faith. Legitimizing a bastard means a child born out of wedlock is suddenly treated as it it was born in wedlock, which can also been seen as the sex act leading to the conception of such a child is post hoc re-imagined as having occurred in matrimony.

If a king can do that without consulting with the Faith or High Septon, then it is really difficult to argue how he could not rule on his own marriage and the status of his wife and children. If you have the power to declare bastards legitimate you should also have the power to declare trueborn children bastards.

[LadyBlackwater]

On 6/16/2019 at 4:34 PM, nyser1 said:

Everyone should have known but apparently:

 

Definitely: Varys

Very likely/close to acknowledging: Pycelle, LF, Arryn

Suspected: Stannis. 

Clueless: the field.

Yes, wasn't Stannis actually the one to bring it to Jon Arryns attention? When Stannis, Renly, and Catelyn met up to parlay at Storms End(ish) and Renly and Catelyn asked him why he never took it to Robert he said he thought that if HE brought it to Robert, it would seem like he was trying to upjump himself. Coming from Jon however, brings clout. 

[LadyBlackwater]

On 6/17/2019 at 7:35 PM, Headfallsoff said:

Renly must have known, or at least suspected. Or is he so stupid that he would try to repudiate a queen without valid reason and whose family held all the power in court? And he was entirely too prepared for Robert's death if he didn't know. Who would kill Robert if not for the incest?

And if Renly could sweep Margery into the mix, it puts him in a position of power right alongside the Tyrells 

[HallowedMarcus]

   I believe by the time of Ned as Hand the ones who really knew were Varys, LF and Ned himself. Othes might be guessing but not certain. Stannis and Jon Arryn guessed strongly but did not know for sure. Stannis believed with certainty after Ned´s letter. Tyrion and Cat discovered for certainty later on.

5 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robert was not wrong. By the time the series is over Dany and her invading foreign army will invade Westeros. She does not care that Robert is dead, she'd still be invading even if Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella were legitimate Baratheon heirs.

Robert's decision was correct for the world he lived in. Jon Arryn, Ned Stark and Barristan were wrong on this occasion.

   King Robert was right about the invasion but wrong about stopping (killing) as a pregnant lady. It was unhonorable. By then there were no Dragons yet. 

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If a king can do that without consulting with the Faith or High Septon, then it is really difficult to argue how he could not rule on his own marriage and the status of his wife and children. If you have the power to declare bastards legitimate you should also have the power to declare trueborn children bastards.

   You might be right but there are not the same thing and not just as easy as to legitimize. Indeed Cersey was afraid that Robert might do that even without discovering about her children true father. But there are not the same thing King Henry of England asked permission from the Pope to divorce and it was denied. He had to become the Ruler of the Church itself (Anglican Church) to set her aside. Also in Westeros Story Aegon (the fourth I guess) could have just declared Darien a bastard and it would be over. But he had to show that his wife was unfaithful and then get rid of her and their son as the legitimate heir. Is not that easy. I am not saying the King could not do it but some cause I believed should be presented to make his sons bastards and marry another.

[R2D]

8 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

Robert was not wrong. By the time the series is over Dany and her invading foreign army will invade Westeros. She does not care that Robert is dead, she'd still be invading even if Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella were legitimate Baratheon heirs.

Robert's decision was correct for the world he lived in. Jon Arryn, Ned Stark and Barristan were wrong on this occasion.

Disagree, Drogo wasn't going to bother crossing the Narrow Sea until the assassination attempt. If Dany was assassinated, it just gives Khal Drogo more motive to invade. It would just mean the war came sooner rather than later. Actually wasn't that Varys' whole motive...Viserys was to wed Arianne Martell, and ally with Dorne, while using Khal Drogo's army to invade Westeros.

Anyway the whole Margaery plot was mad because even if Cersei got set aside, her children would  be in the line of succession. And Tywin could keep them safe from any assassins because he has the means and money, meaning they could wreak bloody vengeance if anything were to happen to Robert.

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, R2D said:

"Robert was blind to things he'd rather not see". That means Robert would go on ignoring any of Renly's hints or what they could mean, because he doesn't accept anything until it's staring him in the face. Consider how he didn't accept that he was wrong about his orders to kill Daenerys and that Ned was right until he was on his deathbed.

I don't think we can play it up in this fashion. That would be internally inconsistent. I mean, if Robert were besotted with Cersei, if he was deeply in love with her and the children she gave him we could see him turning a blind eye even if half the Realm were convinced Cersei was cuckolding him. Sort of like Aegon the Conqueror may have ignored Queen Rhaenys' lovers.

But Robert actually doesn't love Cersei. He resents and they don't get along well. Cersei herself fears that Robert would set her aside for a new Lyanna. That means she is afraid that Robert would dump her, basically.

And Ned is very afraid that Robert would kill Cersei, Jaime, and the children once he is informed about the incest. He doesn't believe Robert will ignore that.

In that sense, I'd say that a careful presentation of a case against Cersei and Jaime to Robert should work very well to destroy Cersei - because Robert doesn't love her, and once the notion that she might cheat on him has taken root it is not likely he will ever be able to let it go. 

16 hours ago, R2D said:

And aren't you arguing against yourself here? That's exactly it, Renly's MO is not to be subtle or even cunning. If he was, he would have cultivated Lord Stark as an ally instead of alienating him, he would have made the case Stannis practised an unlawful religion, he would have backed Stannis and then assasinated him instead of being seen as a usurper. So in all likelihood he would not go for the slow and steady route. Renly's plan if he knew would probably be to plop Margaery into Robert's bed and then let the adultery be discovered in some manner and hope things went his way.

Part of the problem here is that Renly is little more than featured extra in AGoT. He is not really a character, and he gets scarcely more depth in ACoK. But if you try to see his plans in context then Renly has little reason to cultivate Ned as an ally - he does not plan for Robert's death, he wants him to replace Queen Cersei with a Queen Margaery. And as brother of the king he doesn't really need the favor of the Hand.

What could Renly gain from backing Stannis? He wanted to be king himself, not the presumptive heir of a man who would be the least popular king in Westerosi history. Stannis also just started to follow R'hllor when Renly died. Renly had neither the time nor the need to attack Stannis with his new religion.

It is also quite clear that Renly tried a subtle approach with the Margaery thing. He showed around her picture, he told Robert about her, trying to pique his interest even before she came to court, etc.

16 hours ago, R2D said:

Robert could have taken Ned's side against Cersei but he wouldn't because he just hated conflict that much. He would need due cause to get rid of Cersei, especially when doing so would cause a political storm of epic proportions. If Renly gets him to fall in love with Margaery, Robert would start feeling trapped in his marriage, and then Renly could play the part of the concerned brother and bring his suspicions about Cersei to Robert, Robert would likely sieze on this chance to be rid of her and get to be with Maid Margaery once and for all.

Yeah, that could make sense if we have reason to believe Renly knew about the incest - but he didn't.

Which means he planned to make Margaery Robert's queen some other way.

16 hours ago, R2D said:

And I am not at all arguing that Renly is perceptive. He could have been hinted about Cersei's adultery like how Stannis seemed to have been. Arguing Robert had suspicions makes no sense because Robert didn't have a plot to make Margaery queen. And "Renly was just dumb and naive" etc etc can't be argued, because his shadow backers, the Tyrells are not, and they were part of the plot.

Loras is the only Tyrell at court, and he is neither perceptive nor particularly smart or subtle. He is basically a rash and foolish young man. But even if he wasn't - there is, of course, even less evidence that any of the Tyrells knew about the incest while Renly didn't know, either, no?

16 hours ago, R2D said:

I imagine Joffrey would stay in KL since he's the heir, and so Tommen could get Dragonstone.

Traditionally, the Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne was also the Prince of Dragonstone. It might be that Cersei wanted that honor for Joffrey, too. But perhaps she would have preferred it if Robert had kept Storm's End for such a purpose - to make the Heir Apparent the Prince of Storm's End until he became king. As Stannis points out repeatedly, Dragonstone is nothing compared to Storm's End.

But we really don't know what Cersei's issues with Robert's brothers were. It is not unreasonable to assume that Robert making both of them great lords in their own right didn't exactly please her.

At this point, though, we still don't know when exactly Renly was named Lord of Storm's End, though. We also don't know when Stannis got Dragonstone, but chances are pretty high that he got the island essentially as soon as he had taken it from the Targaryens early on during Robert's reign. Did Robert then part with Storm's End as well, making Renly Lord of Storm's End while he was still a young boy? Or did that come later during Robert's reign? We have no idea.

[Lady Winter Rose]

It's obvious Pycelle knew, because he mistreat Lord Arryn for that. He knew even before Ned...