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rotting sea cow

Would be possible for Aegon and the GC to liberate Volantis?

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It just occurred to me after replying in another thread. The situation is the following

When Aegon (aka Young Griff) arrived in Volantis, they found themselves in a difficult position. Daenerys hasn't come West and all other possibilities to go East instead were highly unappealing. At that point it seemed to them that without Dany, Aegon cause is lost and the concerns that Tyrion put forwards about how Dany would look at Aegon are reasonable enough.

Could they instead have started a slave revolt in Volantis?

This solves some problems. It helps Dany by preventing Volantis sailing against her. It gives them access to the ships after the battle is done and gives Aegon a propaganda boost both in the eyes of the Essosi and of course Dany.

Of course, to make it happen, Aegon will need to be very audacious, be able to accurately read the situation, get the agreement of the Golden Company,  get the Red Priests on board as well as influential people like the Widow of the Waterfront.

My guess is that despise being the largest and most disciplined Free Company, they will need the Tigers (slave soldiers) to win Volantis, which in turn mean that the Red Priests are key to make it happen.

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7 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

It just occurred to me after replying in another thread. The situation is the following

When Aegon (aka Young Griff) arrived in Volantis, they found themselves in a difficult position. Daenerys hasn't come West and all other possibilities to go East instead were highly unappealing. At that point it seemed to them that without Dany, Aegon cause is lost and the concerns that Tyrion put forwards about how Dany would look at Aegon are reasonable enough.

Could they instead have started a slave revolt in Volantis?

This solves some problems. It helps Dany by preventing Volantis sailing against her. It gives them access to the ships after the battle is done and gives Aegon a propaganda boost both in the eyes of the Essosi and of course Dany.

Of course, to make it happen, Aegon will need to be very audacious, be able to accurately read the situation, get the agreement of the Golden Company,  get the Red Priests on board as well as influential people like the Widow of the Waterfront.

My guess is that despise being the largest and most disciplined Free Company, they will need the Tigers (slave soldiers) to win Volantis, which in turn mean that the Red Priests are key to make it happen.

You have a good point. The Golden Company is perhaps rivaled only by Dothraki and Unsullied. Thus, I feel no city watch could match them, and if the Tigers and slaves turn with the help of Red Priests (the only religion in Planetos that seems to deliver), then Volantis is conquered imo. To have Volantis is a much better prize than the battle worn Stormlands. 

The GC should be on board if the Red priests agree since the financial rewards would probably be greater. A palace behind the Black walls is definently worth more than a Westerosi holdfast. 

I personally think that Aegon jumping into Westeros on the eve of Winter is a mistake that will cost him in the long run. 

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On their own it doesn't seem that they have the power. If Volon Therys and the other satellite "towns" are the size of King's Landing then Volantis as whole would have resources on par with the Reach. They wouldn't have the resources to conquer and keep Volantis. 

More than that they aren't aware about the ideological aspect of Dany's conflict, nor do they share it. They were perfectly happy to be paid in slaves. So neither the GC nor the Volantene slaves would be willing to cooperate. 

The task is too big for an intermediate goal. 

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2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

On their own it doesn't seem that they have the power. If Volon Therys and the other satellite "towns" are the size of King's Landing then Volantis as whole would have resources on par with the Reach. They wouldn't have the resources to conquer and keep Volantis. 

More than that they aren't aware about the ideological aspect of Dany's conflict, nor do they share it. They were perfectly happy to be paid in slaves. So neither the GC nor the Volantene slaves would be willing to cooperate. 

The task is too big for an intermediate goal. 

My understanding is that these Free Cities are basically rich, populous but very weak. Like Renaissance Florence or Papal State Rome. They probably only have like 3000 watchmen on garrison duty, but piece together big mercenary hosts during war time.

10K GC is powerful enough to seize and hold Volantis if the Red Priests cooperate imo. It is true that the GC are not expressly against slavery, but they also wish to return to Westeros where they won't have any slaves. So I think they will be flexible and support abolitionism in return for the wealth behind the Black Walls of Volantis. 

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29 minutes ago, Br16 said:

My understanding is that these Free Cities are basically rich, populous but very weak. Like Renaissance Florence or Papal State Rome. They probably only have like 3000 watchmen on garrison duty, but piece together big mercenary hosts during war time.

10K GC is powerful enough to seize and hold Volantis if the Red Priests cooperate imo. It is true that the GC are not expressly against slavery, but they also wish to return to Westeros where they won't have any slaves. So I think they will be flexible and support abolitionism in return for the wealth behind the Black Walls of Volantis. 

And where do you base that? Volantis has the capacity to send 300 ships (at least) against Dany and presumably fill them with soldiers. And the old city is behind a 200-foot tall wall made of magic stone. It doesn't look like the GC have anywhere near the power or resources to conquer Volantis. 

The Red Priests probably can take over Volantis due to the sway they hold over Volantis' own army. The GC's potential contribution would not be desicive. 

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COULD he? I guess it's possible, but toppling the government of the largest city in the world (at least west of Qarth) seems like a long way to go just to try to make Dany swoon. 

IIRC, the GC broke their contract and joined up with Aegon VI specifically because they wanted to avenge their exiled forefathers and stake a claim on Westeros. If Aegon came up and was like "change of plan, we're taking Volantis" I'm not sure they would be on board, even with the potential wealth. 

As others have said, the Red Priests would have to be on board, but why would they? I mean, yeah, slavery is bad, but if they wanted to topple it, they would have already and some random kid claiming to be a King probably isn't changing their minds. 

Plus it would just open up the same can of worms Dany did in Mereen, only worse because he doesn't have dragons. Does he just up and leave whenever Dany shows up? 

He doesn't seem to care much about slavery, he's after the Throne. If he grew up around Illyrio, he likely has very different views on slavery than Dany. Conquering Volantis doesn't get him much closer. Maybe taking their fleet, but ships don't seem to have been an issue for him. 

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3 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

And where do you base that? Volantis has the capacity to send 300 ships (at least) against Dany and presumably fill them with soldiers. And the old city is behind a 200-foot tall wall made of magic stone. It doesn't look like the GC have anywhere near the power or resources to conquer Volantis. 

The Red Priests probably can take over Volantis due to the sway they hold over Volantis' own army. The GC's potential contribution would not be desicive. 

They have ships that is without doubt, but it is highly unlikely  the 300 ships are packed with elite land forces, as that could mean 30K plus Tiger Marines. If they had that amount of troops to add to the slaver coalition, it would be landslide victory already (unless dragons). 

Most likely the fleet is just big to protect there merchant sea route networks. They're probably like Carthage, big fleet weak army reliant of mercenaries.   I think the 10K would make a big contribution as they would be disciplined enough to counterbalance the angry freed slaves.

Red priests can deal with the magic of the Black Walls, and slaves on the other side could open the gates once the rest of the city has fallen.

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12 minutes ago, Br16 said:

They have ships that is without doubt, but it is highly unlikely  the 300 ships are packed with elite land forces, as that could mean 30K plus Tiger Marines. If they had that amount of troops to add to the slaver coalition, it would be landslide victory already (unless dragons). 

Most likely the fleet is just big to protect there merchant sea route networks. They're probably like Carthage, big fleet weak army reliant of mercenaries.   I think the 10K would make a big contribution as they would be disciplined enough to counterbalance the angry freed slaves.

Red priests can deal with the magic of the Black Walls, and slaves on the other side could open the gates once the rest of the city has fallen.

It is an invasion force. There is no point for a further naval presence as Dany has no navy. Everyone expects them to land and clean house. It isn't that strange either for a state with an urban population of well over a million to mobilise that number of troops. 

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2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

It is an invasion force. There is no point for a further naval presence as Dany has no navy. Everyone expects them to land and clean house. It isn't that strange either for a state with an urban population of well over a million to mobilise that number of troops. 

Could be for naval bombardment only. Kings Landing has 500K people yet crown lands levies are the smallest, and their city watch is but 2k, increasable to 6K. 

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2 minutes ago, Br16 said:

Could be for naval bombardment only. Kings Landing has 500K people yet crown lands levies are the smallest, and their city watch is but 2k, increasable to 6K. 

The Volantenes expect loot, the Yunkai'i expect them to take the city. Everybody is treating it as an invasion. It is the largest navy we have seen in the series; it is not sent for someone else's agenda. 

King's Landing doesn't apply as it is not a city state and the Tigers aren't free watchmen but slave soldiers. Even so, everything points for Volantis to be on a completely different scale than anything on Westeros.

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15 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

The Volantenes expect loot, the Yunkai'i expect them to take the city. Everybody is treating it as an invasion. It is the largest navy we have seen in the series; it is not sent for someone else's agenda. 

King's Landing doesn't apply as it is not a city state and the Tigers aren't free watchmen but slave soldiers. Even so, everything points for Volantis to be on a completely different scale than anything on Westeros.

Volantis certainly does expect loot and riches, another reason why the ships might have a lot of empty space for  the bankers/slave dealers who will assess the haul, and of course the loot.

Volantis Triarch Malaquo did field 5K foot and 1K horse to cut the Golden company off from the Rhoyne Delta Road. The GC is 10K, so it seems odd that the Volantis force would be smaller than a force they were trying to intimidate unless they did not have enough men.

My guess is that Volantis probably has a Tiger land force of 10-12K max. They probably keep a few thousand to protect the Black Walls, a few thousand to garrison the city and have the rest ready for patrol or expedition. 

For a city state, this would be considerable as most of its populace are bound to be artisans, craftsman, scribes, merchants, bankers, administrative staff and servants. 

So perhaps the 300 ships contained a large expeditionary force of 6000 Tiger Troops (20 per ship), augmented by profit driven captains, sell swords, privateers and so forth. 

Moroever, even if K landing is not a city state, it more or less became one during the pre Blackwater Battle part of Wot5K. Hunger is also a strong motivation. Thus Tyrion could easily have used prioritized food rations as a way to raise a more considerable force to defend the city. However, they could still only increase the G cloaks by 4K. Thus, large urban populations such as in the free cities are usually not soldier types.

Thus, the 10K GC, Red Priests and their 1000 guards, Slave Rebels could easily seize the city, especially with the Volantis fleet and main force going to Meereen. 

 

Edited by Br16

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On 6/13/2019 at 11:38 AM, The Sleeper said:

More than that they aren't aware about the ideological aspect of Dany's conflict, nor do they share it. They were perfectly happy to be paid in slaves. So neither the GC nor the Volantene slaves would be willing to cooperate. 

This is the most important point. They do not have the information to understand Dany's reasons, nor they are able to read the situation in Volantis. But, the what if is exactly, if they did, could they have done the stunt?

I disagree they were happy to be paid in slaves. They were offered to be paid, but they didn't accept it.

@Br16 the "Tiger" army of the Volantis must number tens of thousands. They are sending "ships packed of soldiers" upriver to fend off the Dothraki at the same time they sent a force of 5000 to guard against the GC. And afterwards they send at minimum 300 ships against Dany. The typical scaling using in the series is 100 soldiers per ship, which means a force of at least 30 thousands soldiers.

The Tigers are also said to be "fiercely proud" of their station and although they are certainly not Unsullied, they must be much better than the Yunkaii slave army. Still, they are likely inferior to the Golden Company in terms of training and equipment, but you need them on-board if you want to take the city. The GC can spear head the attack but the local forces need to not fight and contribute to keep any post-slaver government in place.

 

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

 

@Br16 the "Tiger" army of the Volantis must number tens of thousands. They are sending "ships packed of soldiers" upriver to fend off the Dothraki at the same time they sent a force of 5000 to guard against the GC. And afterwards they send at minimum 300 ships against Dany. The typical scaling using in the series is 100 soldiers per ship, which means a force of at least 30 thousands soldiers.

The Tigers are also said to be "fiercely proud" of their station and although they are certainly not Unsullied, they must be much better than the Yunkaii slave army. Still, they are likely inferior to the Golden Company in terms of training and equipment, but you need them on-board if you want to take the city. The GC can spear head the attack but the local forces need to not fight and contribute to keep any post-slaver government in place.

Are we sure all of those upriver soldiers are Tigers? I was under the impression that Volantis intends to pay off the Dothraki like past routines.

Also, I am aware of the 100 man capacity per ship not including crew. But I feel most of the space would be filled with sell swords and slavers (to assess and manage the loot/captives) and left empty for carrying back the loot and captives. I still feel my estimate of a 6000 strong Tiger Force (20 per ship out of 100 capacity) is fair for the 300 fleet, with the rest taken up of sells swords, slavers, privateers, loot space etc. 

A 5-6K force to fend of GC, a 6K force to Meereen, perhaps 3K to garrison the city and a thousand Tigers to lead sellsword host upriver, and we would perhaps have 16K Tiger army total. Which is fair in my opinion. I don't think they would have 50-100K Tiger army as the hype seems to imply. If they did send 30K to Meereen and another massive host to check the Dothraki, why mention paying them off? Moreover, if they had so many troops to spare, why not check the GC with at least 10K instead of 5-6K to match them man to man instead of being outnumbered by almost half?

Either way, I agree that the local forces would need to be turned after the GC spear heads the taking of the city, and I feel the Red Priests will help.

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49 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I disagree they were happy to be paid in slaves. They were offered to be paid, but they didn't accept it.

@Br16 

They refused the contract due to their previous engagement, not because the payment was insufficient, or because they had qualms about owning slaves. I expect them for the most part to consider slavery as a part of life and Dany's stance as incomprehensible. As for their character, like most sellswords they would range from the mostly amoral to the criminal. 

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With Illyrio bankrolling them, I can’t imagine him being too happy with them if they disrupted his trade by seizing Volantis and stopping their slave trading

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It could work with the tigers on their side, I guess.

Without them, not a chance.

Volantis is immensely powerful. Their independent merchantmen got the resources to get the entire Golden Company to Westeros while the triarchs were putting the proper resources of the state (the slave army and navy) to the campaign against Daenerys. Victarion Greyjoy has to disguise himself and his intentions when he takes on provisions at Volantis, etc.

The days of the tigers might be over, and Volantis is in decline, but it is still tremendously powerful. Free companies and other sellswords and even the Dothraki were never a true threat to Volantis at this point. Not while the social order there was intact.

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17 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

With Illyrio bankrolling them, I can’t imagine him being too happy with them if they disrupted his trade by seizing Volantis and stopping their slave trading

I don't know how rich Illyrio is, but I think by the time the story ends, he might be poor again. 

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On 6/13/2019 at 3:40 AM, Lord Vance II said:

yeah, slavery is bad, but if they wanted to topple it, they would have already and some random kid claiming to be a King probably isn't changing their minds. 

It's a prickly pear, Wendel.   Daenerys is the one to change the fire priests' minds about slavery, so she better suited to turning them via magic slapfight over Rollr doctrine.   But aren't the priests basically already the champions & shepherds of the people (including slaves).   The church just needs to be told now's the time to take the big risk and launch slave revolts.  Again, you probably can't convince them to roll the dice without the dragons.  (That's why when Volantis happens, it could happen without Danny lifting a finger, because Slavetown will know she's coming and that the world is changing in her wake, so the slave revolt plays out and Volantis.... takes the knee?)

But Aegon taking Volantis would've been great for the Essos plot, a fine romantic gesture among "Targs,"  speeding things up mightily which is what audiences want.   It could have been a more team building link up of the dragonlords, like what Illyrio would push for.   Aegon making his Go Team play separately in the west is as Palpatine would say too aggressive and creates chances for Tryion to outshine the two invasion waves.

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On 6/13/2019 at 5:40 AM, Lord Vance II said:

IIRC, the GC broke their contract and joined up with Aegon VI specifically because they wanted to avenge their exiled forefathers and stake a claim on Westeros. If Aegon came up and was like "change of plan, we're taking Volantis" I'm not sure they would be on board, even with the potential wealth. 

As others have said, the Red Priests would have to be on board, but why would they? I mean, yeah, slavery is bad, but if they wanted to topple it, they would have already and some random kid claiming to be a King probably isn't changing their minds.

Harry Strickland is descended from exiles, but was the least enthusiastic for Young Griff's plan. He only agreed to break a contract because Myles Toyne had already committed the GC to it earlier. I don't think all the GC hold up the old standards of the organization though. Gorys Edoryen suggested exploiting another offered contract in order to obtain ships, only to then reject it and continue with Young Griff's invasion. He's not a Westerosi at all, just a Volantene mercenary, but as a mercenary company the GC will tend to have a lot of people with mercenary motivations. The argument people put in favor of Griff's invasion was in large part an opportunistic one, although some like Franklyn Flowers have a personal resentment towards Westerosi enemies.

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He doesn't seem to care much about slavery, he's after the Throne. If he grew up around Illyrio, he likely has very different views on slavery than Dany. Conquering Volantis doesn't get him much closer. Maybe taking their fleet, but ships don't seem to have been an issue for him. 

He was brought up in the Faith, which prohibits slavery. Most members of the Faith don't go on expeditions east to liberate slaves though. He's also relying for support on the GC, which try to maintain a reputation among Essosi cities for only sacking them if they don't get paid.

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