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UK Politics: Another vote, just not for anyone who might change their minds


Which Tyler

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

On the other hand, it would ensure that Nigel Farage gets on the telly a lot, which is his primary purpose in life.

And it means when he loses his MEP salary through self-inflicted Brexit he can pick up a UK Government wage ...

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Well, at least now we can see the endgame approaching.

Feivel the Mouse PM Johnson is laying the groundwork for blaming the EU and internal saboteurs (who don't believe hard enough in the country and Brexit) for no deal. Let's see if the MPs are willing to walk the walk with stopping no-deal and conservative MPs being willing to bring down their own Goverment. I wouldn't count on the likes of Rudd. But I think Stewart and Hammond might put the money where their mouths are.

This is gonna be interesting.

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The Netflix documentary The Great Hack dropped in the last few days and it's quite interesting, analysing the role of targeted Facebook ads and Cambridge Analytica's dodgy data-mining on the Brexit vote, especially given the people at CA who saw Brexit as a "practice run" for Trump.

Quite remarkable stuff, especially the notion presented that because the margins in Brexit were even tighter than the 2016 US election, it might be that the data-mining, fake information and targeted ads were more effective in swinging Brexit voters than in the US.

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On 7/23/2019 at 10:58 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I really can't speak too strongly about your guys' situation, but we're clearly ahead of you here. Given the wide spread dehumanization of people, I fear we are close to seeing a lot of terrifying incidents, especially with our insane gun culture.

Yeah I agree, civil unrest is never pleasant, but it’s likely to be a lot less severe here than the US, given your very lax gun laws.

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Shouldn't Boris be banned from being an MP. After all he's from the aristocrisy and the lower house is meant to be the house of COMMONS. Boris might be basic, be he ain't common.

Anyway. BoJo's gameplan seems to be to get the EU to negotiate an new deal in the space of 3 months, and do it in enough time for both the EU and UK Parliament to ratify the new WA. And that's how no-deal Brexit will be avoided. Even assuming the best case scenario that the EU would be willing to re-start negotiations afresh, there is simply no way it would agree to getting it all signed and sealed before the end of October. So surely BoJo can only deliver a no-Deal Brexit at the end of October or an extension with an undertaking by the EU that negotiation of a new WA will take place. He's already said the May deal is dead, and I don't think even he would dig that corpse back up to try to save his arse at the 11th hour. And he'd be hung drawn and quartered if he even hinted as any kind of remain possibility.

From the EU side, I'm guessing they will only sign up for an extension if there was another referendum with all realistically available options on the table (remain, no-deal, May deal) and however the referendum shakes out that's what will happen. Maybe hold a preferential vote referendum where people rank each option so that the referendum reaches a 50%+1 threshold for one of the options. So if BoJo isn't up for that, no-deal it is.

One point of confusion for me. the idea behind Proroguing is that Parliament is AWOL when the exit date arrives, and thus Brexit is automatic. So that mean Parliament doesn't need to vote for no-Deal to happpen. So even if parliament is in session, it's not necessary to vote for no-Deal to go ahead. Parliament being in session only provides an opportunity for someone to put up a vote to prevent no-Deal. But can a vote just stop something that is already going to happen or does it need to make something other than no-Deal happen. If you prevent no-deal but don;t do anything else then you've basically caused the UK to remain, and that kind of vote isn't going to happen either, Shirley. So what would an no-deal prevention vote actually be voting for?

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2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

One point of confusion for me. the idea behind Proroguing is that Parliament is AWOL when the exit date arrives, and thus Brexit is automatic. So that mean Parliament doesn't need to vote for no-Deal to happpen. So even if parliament is in session, it's not necessary to vote for no-Deal to go ahead. Parliament being in session only provides an opportunity for someone to put up a vote to prevent no-Deal. But can a vote just stop something that is already going to happen or does it need to make something other than no-Deal happen. If you prevent no-deal but don;t do anything else then you've basically caused the UK to remain, and that kind of vote isn't going to happen either, Shirley. So what would an no-deal prevention vote actually be voting for?

I think the idea is basically to stop parliament from passing legislation that forces Johnson to goto Brussels and unwillingly ask for an extension. Whether that would be granted is another matter. As Macron was not too fond of the current extension, and the question (from the EU's perspective) remains: Extension for what purpose exactly? The WA is not up for renegotiation. If the UK wants to crash out, they might as well go now instead of binding resources for no purpose (Tusk asking the UK not waste this extension comes to mind). If the UK wanted to withdraw article 50, they could've made up their mind about that during this extension (ah, no, actually they were busy resurrecting Unicorns and produce a new PM to parade them). If the UK wanted a new referendum, they (theoretically) could've made preparations for that outcome, too.

But you said as much yourself in the preceding paragraphs.

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Anyway. BoJo's gameplan seems to be to get the EU to negotiate an new deal in the space of 3 months, and do it in enough time for both the EU and UK Parliament to ratify the new WA. And that's how no-deal Brexit will be avoided. Even assuming the best case scenario that the EU would be willing to re-start negotiations afresh, there is simply no way it would agree to getting it all signed and sealed before the end of October. So surely BoJo can only deliver a no-Deal Brexit at the end of October or an extension with an undertaking by the EU that negotiation of a new WA will take place. He's already said the May deal is dead, and I don't think even he would dig that corpse back up to try to save his arse at the 11th hour. And he'd be hung drawn and quartered if he even hinted as any kind of remain possibility. 

There won't be a renegotiation. And most certainly not a new WA without the backstop (or something very similar) in some shape or form. Again, simple question. Why would the EU give a Brexiter like Johnson something they wouldn't give May? May had a lot more goodwil to begin with than Johnson  has. Ofc May duly squadered it. But there's like zero trust in Johnson on the EU side - why should there be any? Apart from that. Ireland will insist on the backstop, so why would the EU prioritize the wishes or a parting member over the wishes of an actual member state? The only answer is some fantasy about German carmakers riding to the rescue of the UK. Spoiler. They didn't come in on their white charger last time, they won't do it this time. The BDI said as much. And Dodge is an American company anyway.

So it's May's deal, No Deal, No Brexit. One of the three. Johnson is very much aware of it; and lying thru his teeth (d'uh). All those speeches are designed to blame the EU for the pending no-deal outcome.

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10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Shouldn't Boris be banned from being an MP. After all he's from the aristocrisy and the lower house is meant to be the house of COMMONS. Boris might be basic, be he ain't common.

Anyway. BoJo's gameplan seems to be to get the EU to negotiate an new deal in the space of 3 months, and do it in enough time for both the EU and UK Parliament to ratify the new WA. And that's how no-deal Brexit will be avoided. Even assuming the best case scenario that the EU would be willing to re-start negotiations afresh, there is simply no way it would agree to getting it all signed and sealed before the end of October. So surely BoJo can only deliver a no-Deal Brexit at the end of October or an extension with an undertaking by the EU that negotiation of a new WA will take place. He's already said the May deal is dead, and I don't think even he would dig that corpse back up to try to save his arse at the 11th hour. And he'd be hung drawn and quartered if he even hinted as any kind of remain possibility.

From the EU side, I'm guessing they will only sign up for an extension if there was another referendum with all realistically available options on the table (remain, no-deal, May deal) and however the referendum shakes out that's what will happen. Maybe hold a preferential vote referendum where people rank each option so that the referendum reaches a 50%+1 threshold for one of the options. So if BoJo isn't up for that, no-deal it is.

One point of confusion for me. the idea behind Proroguing is that Parliament is AWOL when the exit date arrives, and thus Brexit is automatic. So that mean Parliament doesn't need to vote for no-Deal to happpen. So even if parliament is in session, it's not necessary to vote for no-Deal to go ahead. Parliament being in session only provides an opportunity for someone to put up a vote to prevent no-Deal. But can a vote just stop something that is already going to happen or does it need to make something other than no-Deal happen. If you prevent no-deal but don;t do anything else then you've basically caused the UK to remain, and that kind of vote isn't going to happen either, Shirley. So what would an no-deal prevention vote actually be voting for?

I don't think proroguing Parliament is a runner, because it would draw the Queen into party politics.

IMHO, Boris's gameplan is simply to dare the Commons to pass a VONC in his government, and in the end they may not, if the alternative is either making Jeremy Corbyn PM, or holding a fresh general election. 

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15 hours ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

Yeah I agree, civil unrest is never pleasant, but it’s likely to be a lot less severe here than the US, given your very lax gun laws.

OTOH, your lot has that soccer hooliganism in your DNA. Throw in a bit of xenophobia and god help us all. 

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

OTOH, your lot has that soccer hooliganism in your DNA. Throw in a bit of xenophobia and god help us all. 

I’m half American tbf :P, I have thought about moving there as parts of the US would be a lovely place to raise a family but am kind of put off until at least 2020!.

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3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

.... most people attending marches for or against Brexit appear to be old people.

That certainly was not my anecdotal experience of the anti Brexit marches I have been on!

As for the pro Brexit marches, the numbers were too small and too much dominated by the far right to judge.

Perhaps you are thinking of Tory party members?

 

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3 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Any civil unrest is likely to be incredibly polite and slow moving, especially as most  people attending marches for or against Brexit appear to be old people.

This doesn't seem to have any basis in reality, at least for the Remain marches

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From a quick search I can't find any age range data, but given that Remainers tend to be younger than Brexiteers, and that I must have seen many thousands of marchers on the marches I have been on, then I would say that your experience was most likely a fluke.

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The latest scheme the government is floating is to turn some schools into military academies to fill the young with vim and vigour, or something.

Meanwhile, Jacob Rees-Mogg's first day in his job was spent...insisting that stuff only use imperial measurements and not metric.

Johnson has also said that the removal of the backstop is a precondition to any further talks with the EU. He has spoken on the phone to Merkel and said there will be no discussions unless the withdrawal agreement is opened up again in full, although he knows this is impossible from an EU perspective.

At this point I would say that No Deal is by far the most likely outcome, unless Parliament can really pull out the stops to halt it, and Johnson's appointment of Dominic Cummings suggests that he is fully prepared to go for a General Election if necessary and will not hesitate to pull out every idea in the Cambridge Analytica playbook to make sure he wins.

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Just now, Werthead said:

The latest scheme the government is floating is to turn some schools into military academies to fill the young with vim and vigour, or something.

Somehow I had to think of Francois and for some reason this seemed to be the appropriate musical theme to it. Also seems oddly appropriate with regards to the current cabinet.

Just now, Werthead said:

Meanwhile, Jacob Rees-Mogg's first day in his job was spent...insisting that stuff only use imperial measurements and not metric.

Oh c'mon on now, he surely is just in full troll mode now. That victorian gentleman insisting on imperial measurements.

1 minute ago, Werthead said:

Johnson has also said that the removal of the backstop is a precondition to any further talks with the EU. He has spoken on the phone to Merkel and said there will be no discussions unless the withdrawal agreement is opened up again in full, although he knows this is impossible from an EU perspective. 

Yes, no deal full speed ahead. At least that's what it looks like. But then again, in a galaxy far far away and a time long past newly elected PM May was also starting her tenure with full swaggerr determined to show the Eurocrats. This lady was not for turning and shit. So let's see if he will suffer an equally humiliating fate as his predecessor. Of course with this giant ego of his, and just three months to go, this show would be much more spectacular. The EU doesn't really care for domestic strong (wo-)man speeches. He can ask May about that.

7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

At this point I would say that No Deal is by far the most likely outcome, unless Parliament can really pull out the stops to halt it, and Johnson's appointment of Dominic Cummings suggests that he is fully prepared to go for a General Election if necessary and will not hesitate to pull out every idea in the Cambridge Analytica playbook to make sure he wins.

Fighting an election on the back of no-deal? I very much doubt that he has the stomach for that. But then again, it would make things pretty interesting. And we might at least reach some conclusion to this mummer's farce. This cycle of unicorn promises, climbdown, strong man speeches, climbdowns repeat ad nauseaum is becoming kinda boring.

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22 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Johnson has also said that the removal of the backstop is a precondition to any further talks with the EU. He has spoken on the phone to Merkel and said there will be no discussions unless the withdrawal agreement is opened up again in full, although he knows this is impossible from an EU perspective.

At this point I would say that No Deal is by far the most likely outcome, unless Parliament can really pull out the stops to halt it, and Johnson's appointment of Dominic Cummings suggests that he is fully prepared to go for a General Election if necessary and will not hesitate to pull out every idea in the Cambridge Analytica playbook to make sure he wins.

I agree with this, but I have a question. Is it possible for Boris to be ousted before the deadline? I was listening to a NPR podcast, and the Brit seemed to think that infighting due to not going for a full no deal Brexit could lead to Farage stabbing Boris in the back and collapsing his tenure.

6 hours ago, Bittersweet Distractor said:

I’m half American tbf :P

All or nothing! Murika!!!

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I agree with this, but I have a question. Is it possible for Boris to be ousted before the deadline? I was listening to a NPR podcast, and the Brit seemed to think that infighting due to not going for a full no deal Brexit could lead to Farage stabbing Boris in the back and collapsing his tenure.

Farage has no power to do that at the moment, unless you mean try to convince the ERG to collapse the Tory government and force a general election? If Boris keeps saying No Deal on 31 October, there is no reason to do that.

The problem with that move is that you run a high risk of a Tory defeat, a Labour or coalition government, Ref3 and potentially no Brexit at all. All or nothing. Boris will have been bullish about polling a few weeks back suggesting he was more likely to defeat Corbyn than any of his rivals, but polling this week puts Labour ahead (only just) by themselves, let alone in coalition with possible partners, so that becomes a much greater risk.

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Just now, Werthead said:

Farage has no power to do that at the moment, unless you mean try to convince the ERG to collapse the Tory government and force a general election? If Boris keeps saying No Deal on 31 October, there is no reason to do that.

The problem with that move is that you run a high risk of a Tory defeat, a Labour or coalition government, Ref3 and potentially no Brexit at all. All or nothing. Boris will have been bullish about polling a few weeks back suggesting he was more likely to defeat Corbyn than any of his rivals, but polling this week puts Labour ahead (only just) by themselves, let alone in coalition with possible partners, so that becomes a much greater risk.

I thought LibDems might have become the bigger concerns for the Tories by now. As Labour atm seems to be at the brink of imploding themselves. From the ongoing anti-semitism accusations, which do not look like they are going away anytime soon, to the incoherent shambles of their own Brexit policy (I use the term policy generously) and the infighting surrounding the Corbynistas vs. Watson and the hidden Blairites, to the MP who received a resignation from his Twitter account, and has subsequently released a statement accusing Corbyn of bullying him. So I think the resurgent LibDems should scare Tories and Labour alike.

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