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How could we find out about Aegon

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4 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

but there's one mistake - The Holy Trinity doesn't consist of Mother, Son and Holy Ghost but of Father, Son and Holy Ghost.

I know, though GRRM possibly used not an exact parallel, but something similar. Mother instead of Father.

4 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

Rather, it seems, she is the Whore Babylon, riding the horrible Beast, the ''Mother of Sin'',

:blink: Babylonian Whore is Cersei, or Margaery, or Arianne, not Dany. And the Whore's partner is either Euron, or fAegon. There could be several Antichrists in GRRM's version (there are two of those creatures in the Bible too), and both of them Beasts out of the Sea. fAegon and Golden Company are the Beast with seven heads, one of which was mortally wounded, and Euron is a Scarlet Beast, which was riden by the Harlot, and on whose body were written names of blasphemy (Euron did defiled multiple gods in The Forsaken chapter in TWOW, and committed numerous blasphemies).

Dany is more in parallel to Mother Mary. That scene from the Bible, when three magi/wisemen from the east, following the star-of-Bethlehem, came to see Mary's newborn son, is similar to how three visitors from Qarth came to Dany, following the Bleeding Star, to see her newborn dragons.

4 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

That the hope of her bringing peace and mercy will be completely crushed is basically confirmed by GRRM in regards to how the TV-series played out.

GRRM has nothing to do with that ending. It has as much in common with GRRM's work, as the movie "Romeo + Juliet" with what was written by Shakespeare - not much.

4 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

It does seem plausible that Varys turns out to be the False Prophet

The False Prophet seems more likely to fit to Littlefinger. And Varys is a Dragon. There was a distinctive difference between those two in the Bible. The Dragon was the one, who was pursuing The Woman Clothed in the Sun, and he was the one, who gave authority to the Beast out of the Sea. While the False Prophet appeared later, and he was telling people to make an image of the Beast.

4 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

There are also other, smaller indications for the equation Jon = Jesus:

That's the thing, GRRM wrote a lot of parallels between Jesus and all three of ASOIAF's dragonriders - Dany, Rhaego, and Jon.

And besides being parallels to Jesus, they are also parallels to other characters from the Bible and other books. Dany - Jesus, Mother Mary, the Bride of the Lamb (the Bible ends with their wedding) / bride of fire in the vision with the blue rose (Jon) on the wall of ice. Jon - King Arthur Pendragon, King Aragorn, the Lamb and the True Pearl from the Arthurian "Pearl Poem" (that's why there was a pearl direwolf on the Stark's side of Joffrey's wedding chalice). GRRM is Tolkien's fan (the Poem is Tolkien's translation, of the work written by the same author as wrote "Sir Gawain and the Green Knight". Which has also some parallels in ASOIAF - Bran is Sir Gawain, Jojen is the Green Knight, the Three-Eyed Crow/Shiera Seastar/Quaithe is that elderly lady at Gawain's castle, who was actually Morgana le Fay in disguise, and caused Gawain to go on his journey.)

https://allpoetry.com/poem/8499963-Pearl-by-J-R-R-Tolkien

"23 - For what you lost was but a rose
That by nature failed after flowering brief;
Now the casket's virtues that it enclose
Prove it a pearl of price in chief;

65 - 'Why, immaculate bride of brightest flame,
Who royalty have so rich and bare,
Of what kind can He be, the Lamb you name,
Who would you His wedded wife declare?

98 - I woke in that garden as before,
My head upon that mound was laid
Where once to earth my pearl had strayed.
I stretched, and fell in great unease,
And sighing to myself I prayed:
'Now all be as that Prince may please.' "

Bran is a parallel to the sleeper in the garden, and Jon is both the rose, that died, and the pearl, that was resurrected.

5 hours ago, LadyOfCastamere said:

On a different note - IF Varys indeed switched baby Aegon with some other baby, then why did he leave out Rhaenys? Was she too old, too recognizable? If it was truly about reestablishing the Targaryen rule then it would've been wiser to save her as well as the potential bride.

I totally don't believe that Varys saved little Aegon. He was Rhaegar's enemy, he was constantly saying to Aerys, that his son is planning to usurp him. So why would he save Rhaegar's son? Doesn't make sense.

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@Megorova if Whore's partner is Euron than the Whore is Daenerys. If the Wjore's partner is Aegon than the partner is Daenerys. Both men want to marry her not someone else. Frankly the talks about of Antichrist and Messiahs are comical because neither exists in my religion. 

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5 hours ago, Jova Snow said:

if Whore's partner is Euron than the Whore is Daenerys. If the Wjore's partner is Aegon than the partner is Daenerys.

Both of those guys are in Westeros, and Dany is still in Essos, many months away from her trip to 7K. Thus, there's more possibility, that by the time of Dany's arrival, fAegon will already hook up with Arianne, and Euron with Cersei. I think, that when Arianne will be pregnant, Euron will kill fAegon, and will take Iron Throne. In The Hedge Knight novel, there was a scene -

"The puppeteer's stall had been knocked on its side. The fat Dornishwoman was on the ground weeping. One man-at-arms was dangling the puppets of Florian and Jonquil from his hands as another set them afire with a torch. Three more men were opening chests, spilling more puppets on the ground and stamping on them. The dragon puppet was scattered all about them, a broken wing here, its head there, its tail in three pieces."

In my opinion, it's a prediction of fAegon's death. fAegon is a mummer's dragon. That dragon puppet is also a mummer's dragon.

I think that "Florian" and "Jonquil" are fAegon's parents - Barristan Selmy (who is possibly grandson of Aenys Blackfyre) and septa Lemore, who is Lady Jeyne Swann and the Perfumed Seneschal (because in Medieval Ages jonquil oil was used for making perfumes, and because it's likely, that Johanna Swann, the Black Swan of Lys, was working as a courtesan at the Perfumed Garden pillow house, owned by the Rogare family, and after that Johanna became one of Lysandro's wives, and gave birth to Larra Rogare - grandmother of the first Blackfyre, of Bloodraven, Bittersteel (founder of Golden Company), Shiera Seastar, and Daeron II Targaryen), that in 281 was saved by Barristan Selmy from Kingswood Brotherhood, whose leader, Simon Toyne, possibly was brother of ex-captain-general of Golden Company, Myles Toyne.

And a fat Dornishwoman is pregnant Arianne Martell, and the father is fAegon.

In my opinion, this depicts appearance of Golden Company at Westeros, and their defeat by Euron, and then Tyrion with Penny, or maybe Euron with Cersei, or fAegon with Arianne: ADWD, Melisandre -

"Visions danced before her, gold and scarlet, flickering, forming and melting and dissolving into one another, shapes strange and terrifying and seductive. She saw the eyeless faces again, staring out at her from sockets weeping blood. Then the towers by the sea, crumbling as the dark tide came sweeping over them, rising from the depths. Shadows in the shape of skulls, skulls that turned to mist, bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing. Through curtains of fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky."

Gold and scarlet - Golden Company VS Euron (Scarlet Beast). Dark tide, shadows in the shape of skulls - Golden Company. Skulls that turned to mist - GC defeated by Euron. Bodies locked together in lust, writhing and rolling and clawing - looks like a scene with dwarfs, from Aeron's second vision in The Forsaken chapter from TWOW. And then, after those battles will be over, Dany will arive to Westeros - Through curtains of fire great winged shadows wheeled against a hard blue sky. By that time Euron will be already sitting on Iron Throne, like in that vision. And in the first of Aeron's visions, in my opinion, was depicted the battle between Euron and fAegon, and Euron won.

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On 6/26/2019 at 6:53 PM, btfu806 said:

Well, we knew the mountain was going after Elia and her family right? Varys could make the assumption or come up with other ways to make the baby unidentifiable (paying a soldier to burn the bodies or something).

And Elia must have known the war wasn't going in her favor... Raegar had just died at the battle of the trident and before the sack of king's landing happened she could have easily sent away her son. That's not that hard to believe in my opinion.

There is only one big problem with the baby-swap: There was still a King's Guard in the Red Keep, and Varys could never know what Jaime would do.

Sure, he just stayed in the Throne Room, waiting for the other to arrive, but when you look at Jaime's dreams, you see that he is feeling guilty for not going to look after Elia and the children (He, too, thought them save - and Elia would not have thought different). He could have - and when? Do you really think, Gregor would have cut through Jaime to rape and kill Elia and slaughter her children?

That's why I don't buy the story: Sure, Varys tried to raise the perfect king (plus hidden prince topos), but it would be very underwhelming if he would actually succeed, that's why I also don't see "Aegon" being a good ruler. :dunno:

But we may never get the true, just hints and assumptions by other characters.

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@Morte Jaime was there to serve Aerys, Rhaegar specifically left him in KL because Aerys was more afraid of Tywin than the rebels, he essentially said fuck I really don't care if my heir dies, my bastard is more important right after Elia died giving birth to Aegon. Elia would do everything to save her child so he can be King. 

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On 6/26/2019 at 7:02 AM, Wolfbynature said:

But to take advantage of this fact before the murder happened, Varys had to know, that the the boy would not only be killed, but killed in a way that leaves him unrecognisable.

"The Accursed Kings" didn't require that the baby was unrecognizable. I do agree that it seems strange Varys was able to make all these preparations. On the other hand, we do know that Varys arranged for the less-important Gendry to be smuggled out of King's Landing in the wake of Robert's death.

On 6/26/2019 at 7:34 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Tywin's wanting Rhaenys dead was probably less about anyone potentially leading a rebellion in her name than the danger that Robert would be persuaded to wait for her to grow up and marry her (not a bad plan as it would bring Targaryen loyalists in, and allow Robert more than a decade of playing around as much as he liked). Tywin saw his shot to get Cersei married to a king and he wasn't going to let anyone get in the way, even an innocent three year old girl.

That's too long of a wait, particularly considering the rates of chilhood mortality in a pre-modern society. Jon Arryn will insist on a political marriage earlier than that. If she grows up, she could make for a replacement wife if Robert becomes a widower in the meanwhile.

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21 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That's too long of a wait, particularly considering the rates of chilhood mortality in a pre-modern society. Jon Arryn will insist on a political marriage earlier than that. If she grows up, she could make for a replacement wife if Robert becomes a widower in the meanwhile.

The mortality rates drop off dramatically after the first two years of life. Rhaenys was already 3, so her chances of dying were lower.  And they could easily have done the marry-the-little-girl-and-wait-to-consummate thing that was done by royalty in history (and was done in the series, see Tyrek and Ermesande). If she died, then Robert could take another, older wife.

Would Tywin know that Jon Arryn would insist on a political marriage before Rhaenys could grow up? After all the new king had two healthy brothers and a bunch of bastards who could be legitimized if necessary. His best shot for Cersei as queen was to make get rid of all possible competition, and hope the Stark girl was either dead or so tainted in Robert's mind that he'd never be able to touch her.

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On 6/27/2019 at 7:37 AM, Wolfbynature said:

On the one hand, Varys was very smart in saving the boy, on the other hand he didn´t knew about the danger for Rhaenys live? E.g. the hatred of Robert against all Targaryans, the political situation of Hause Lannister... No, it was very likely for her to be killed. 

Rhaenys would have been more valuable alive than dead. She was a princess of House Targaryen and Robert's having control of her would have ensured that Dorne did nothing and he could have sold her off in marriage to someone loyal to him later, if he didn't get talked into marrying her himself. With the only precedent for a queen regnant being Rhaenyra's disastrous six months, it is unlikely that any plan to put Rhaenys on the throne would have found enough backers to make it a realistic threat to Robert. Especially as no one would have wanted a 3 year old on the throne.

No one knew how bad Robert's hatred of Targaryens was until AFTER Tywin presented the bodies to him and Ned protested about the "babies." Everyone would have figured out that he hated Rhaegar, and probably Aerys, but hating all the other Targaryens wasn't necessarily something everyone would expect. Robert is part Targaryen himself...a fact he conveniently ignores.

On 6/27/2019 at 7:37 AM, Wolfbynature said:

I have to disagree. You presume that Robert, Eddard and Tywin are stupid. That they won´t ask the right people to indentify persons they did not knew personally. They certainly asked someone who knew Elia and her children, to identify the dead bodies as the royal family. And if it had been necessary (or useful) there were for sure a lot people involved in the fostering of a royal baby. Wetnurses,  midwifes, servants... 

I don't presume that they're stupid. Well, maybe Robert. And Ned is certainly pretty naive about some things.

I do presume that they had no reason to need the bodies identified because who the heck else would they expect them to be? Varys didn't show up in KL until after Tywin had quit as Hand. And no one else would have had the balls (pardon the unfortunate pun, given the character) to try a switch. If you don't expect a switch, you don't need an ID. Though Tywin really should have followed up on the one with the shattered face, because the most recognizable Targ features were shattered too. If Tywin didn't know Varys, he wouldn't know Varys might pull in a stunt-double.

Tywin is intelligent yes, but he's not very creative. He's not the one who came up with the Red Wedding, he just promised he wouldn't do anything about it if the Freys and Roose Bolton went ahead with it. Walder Frey is a creative man. A rotten, stinking, scoundrel and a lecher, but a creative man. Varys is also a creative man. It's the thinking outside the box that makes the difference.

I do presume that if it was put off until the last minute no one knew about the switch or had reason to think one would have occurred or look closely at the baby or the body. I do presume that Targaryen servants would absolutely lie if they realized a switch had taken place and it gave the real prince a chance to escape far enough away that Tywin couldn't get him, especially after seeing what was done to stunt-double, Elia, and Rhaenys.

Elia didn't use a wetnurse. She nursed Aegon herself. 

Midwives are for pregnancies and births. They do not care for the babies much past birth.

Any servants still in the castle after they found out that Lannister men were sacking the city would be staunch Targaryen loyalists. The rebel sympathizers and cowards would have run.

On 6/27/2019 at 7:37 AM, Wolfbynature said:

I would not dare to lie in front of Tywin Lannister. Especially if I were not the only person who is
asked. And please do not presume that all of them were paid by Varys.

You are not a Targaryen loyalist. You did not stay in the Red Keep even after it was known that Tywin's men had taken the city. And you did not know the prince, the princess, or their mother. So you would have no personal ties or feelings that would impel you to lie. 

It would be ridiculous to suggest that Varys paid everyone to keep their mouths shut. Quite frankly, anyone who would take the gold would be more likely to rat him out. If your silence can bought at one price, it can be unbought at another, and everyone knew the Lannisters were wealthy and powerful. A fool might even think they could put one over on Tywin to their own benefit and help the little prince escape by lying. There are plenty of fools in the world, and in this book series.

Please do not presume to think you know the way I think or what I'm going to say next.

On 6/27/2019 at 7:37 AM, Wolfbynature said:

I had babys myself. You can differ them, even if they have the same hair and eye colour.

Me too. Four of them. If I had identical twins I could probably tell them apart, but only because I'd be their mother. There are people who spend every day with children who look similar (not even identical) and still can't keep them straight. 

Has it not occurred to you that babies who share the same genetics can have more in common than just hair and eye color? GRRM has said that Daenerys looks like her ancestress Queen Naerys. It's not outside the realm of possibility that a child with Targaryen looks might look very much like another child with Targaryen looks, enough so that it might take even someone who knows toddler #1 a few hours or so to figure out that he's not toddler #1 at all, especially if he's dead and thus not moving around, making noise, or acting like himself because, you know...he's dead. A few hours could be the difference between life and death. 

Kevan's POV epilogue rather allows for the possibility that Tywin did not ask for IDs of the bodies, or that Tywin knew it might not be Aegon. Tywin said it was him, so they all accepted it. Sounds like Kevan's having some doubts. Kevan knew his brother as well as anyone else did, and better than most. If he has doubts about Tywin's thoroughness, or honesty, in the matter, why shouldn't the readers?

On 6/27/2019 at 7:37 AM, Wolfbynature said:

Aegon and Rhaenys without her Mother? Why not all of them? And if all of them, then the baby swap becomes useless. A mother would never agree to be seperated from her children without a VERY good reason and a lot of trust. I do´nt see the reason and the trust.

Okay, let's assume Varys thought Rhaenys would be in imminent danger of being killed and had time to find a salty Dornish looking three year old in King's Landing who looked like, and could be trained to act like, and sound like Rhaenys. Let's assume he did this far enough in advance to get said three year old playing along well with pretending to be the princess. Okay, so the stunt double is in place. Everything is ready for go.

Why not include Elia? Because no one expected her life to be in danger, not even Tywin

You don't see the reason Elia would allow her child a chance to escape being murdered? I'd say that's a very good reason to agree to separation. If he's taken out, not only does he maybe live but might one day reclaim the throne that should have been his father's and should have been his. And Elia might hope to live to see that day. If the plan was to get both of her children to safety, she'd be even more on board. She might even think in time she could slip off quietly, claim to be thinking about becoming a Septa or Silent Sister, and be reunited with them.

Why wouldn't she trust Varys? Varys had never done her any harm. Varys had connections all over Planetos. Varys had served the king loyally. Varys was Aegon's only chance for survival.

As a mother, if I knew without doubt that one of my children would be killed if they stayed with me, but someone who had served my family well and never done me any harm, someone I had no reason not to trust, said he thought he could get them to safety, yes I would let them go. If I think I can maybe talk the bad guys into not killing the other kids then I only send the one in the most danger away. Why? Because the "I can't bear to be parted from you so I'll keep you and watch you slaughtered" attitude makes no sense. Because putting my need to be with my children ahead of their safety would be selfish. And if I knew the one in the most danger could be king or president one day, because the entire country is at stake, not just me and my family.

Elia was a princess. She was trained to put the people first, as her mother did, as her brother tried to teach her niece Arianne. Don't forget that Elia knew about the prophecy. If she believed Aegon was TPtwP it was her duty not only to Westeros but to the entire world to see that he was safe.

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On 6/30/2019 at 12:51 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The mortality rates drop off dramatically after the first two years of life. Rhaenys was already 3, so her chances of dying were lower.  And they could easily have done the marry-the-little-girl-and-wait-to-consummate thing that was done by royalty in history (and was done in the series, see Tyrek and Ermesande). If she died, then Robert could take another, older wife.

Would Tywin know that Jon Arryn would insist on a political marriage before Rhaenys could grow up? After all the new king had two healthy brothers and a bunch of bastards who could be legitimized if necessary. His best shot for Cersei as queen was to make get rid of all possible competition, and hope the Stark girl was either dead or so tainted in Robert's mind that he'd never be able to touch her.

Tyrek was a FAR less valuable match than King Robert. He's also nearly a decade younger than Robert was at the time.

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On 7/6/2019 at 12:11 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

Tyrek was a FAR less valuable match than King Robert. He's also nearly a decade younger than Robert was at the time.

I'm not sure what you're getting at with that. Tyrek wasn't a king? Well the little Hayford girl wasn't a princess. The only thing Ermesande has going for her is money, and that poor Tyrek won't have to deal with any difficult in-laws. There's no throne or war at stake with those two. 

If it's the age difference that's bothering you, remember that political marriages have nothing to do with age. William Marshall was 34 to Eleanor Plantagenet's 9 years old when they married. 

If it's the heir bit, Jon Arryn pushed too hard on that. Robert had two trueborn brothers and a passel of bastards he could have legitimized. He didn't really need an heir right away.  What he needed were powerful allies, and however much Tywin Lannister might have been feared or even revered, the Prince of Dorne as an ally is nothing to sneeze at, also the prospect of Rhaenys being queen would have gone a long way toward reconciling the more stubborn Targaryen loyalists to Robert's being king. And no one, not even the Martells would have expected Robert to be celibate while his wife was growing up. It would have been pure politics. 

Robert's age shouldn't be an issue because men can father children much longer than women can, and again two brothers and all those bastards. If he waits until she's 15, he'll be 33. Robert is in his late 30s at the start of the series when Renly is planning to have him ditch Cersei and her children and start over with Margaery. 

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On 7/8/2019 at 5:47 AM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

 

I'm not sure what you're getting at with that. Tyrek wasn't a king? Well the little Hayford girl wasn't a princess. The only thing Ermesande has going for her is money, and that poor Tyrek won't have to deal with any difficult in-laws. There's no throne or war at stake with those two. 

If it's the age difference that's bothering you, remember that political marriages have nothing to do with age. William Marshall was 34 to Eleanor Plantagenet's 9 years old when they married. 

 If it's the heir bit, Jon Arryn pushed too hard on that. Robert had two trueborn brothers and a passel of bastards he could have legitimized. He didn't really need an heir right away.  What he needed were powerful allies, and however much Tywin Lannister might have been feared or even revered, the Prince of Dorne as an ally is nothing to sneeze at, also the prospect of Rhaenys being queen would have gone a long way toward reconciling the more stubborn Targaryen loyalists to Robert's being king. And no one, not even the Martells would have expected Robert to be celibate while his wife was growing up. It would have been pure politics. 

Robert's age shouldn't be an issue because men can father children much longer than women can, and again two brothers and all those bastards. If he waits until she's 15, he'll be 33. Robert is in his late 30s at the start of the series when Renly is planning to have him ditch Cersei and her children and start over with Margaery. 

Robert's need heirs asap, it makes no sense to wait so long, Rhaenys should marry Robert firstborn son or one of his brothers if he doesn't have children, not wait 14 years for the kid to become a woman.

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If Aegon is real or not matters to very few people, the principal of whom is Dany. I think you see a scenario where Tyrion/Sansa subtly push Dany in the direction of questioning Aegon's lineage which will see her investigate matters ending in the truth coming from Illyrio's corner.

The Tattered Prince is a good chance to be a piece in this story thread too.

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Regarding the baby swap, it may have been initiated by Rhaegar, rather than Varys alone.  Aerys was keeping Rhaegar's family in the keep both to keep Dorne AND Rhaegar in line.  Rhaegar was very concerned with prophecy, so he may have asked Varys to secure his children.  And then when Rhaegar died and everything fell apart, Varys would be left holding onto a kid and not knowing what to do with him at first, maybe he gives him to Illyrio to adopt.  Then they come up wtih their plan for a Targ Restoration.

Do we know how Varys felt about Rhaegar?  Maybe he came to regreat snitching on him.

Edited by argonak

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22 minutes ago, argonak said:

Regarding the baby swap, it may have been initiated by Rhaegar, rather than Varys alone.  Aerys was keeping Rhaegar's family in the keep both to keep Dorne AND Rhaegar in line.  Rhaegar was very concerned with prophecy, so he may have asked Varys to secure his children.  And then when Rhaegar died and everything fell apart, Varys would be left holding onto a kid and not knowing what to do with him at first, maybe he gives him to Illyrio to adopt.  Then they come up wtih their plan for a Targ Restoration.

Do we know how Varys felt about Rhaegar?  Maybe he came to regreat snitching on him.

That is a possible scenario.

My personal guess would be that it would have been Elia who approached Varys with such an idea, after the news of the Trident reached court. Both to protect Aegon from Aerys II's madness (Viserys had just been named Heir Apparent and Prince of Dragonstone (presumably), and she may also have been known or been told - by Varys - about the wildfire plan) as well as to ensure that the boy would not be killed by a victorious Robert. As a male heir he was in much more danger than the women of the royal family (Rhaenys could have been married to Robert's heir like Jaehaera Targaryen was married to Aegon III).

The other point being is that Rhaenys clearly was too old to be swapped - both to fool the victorious rebels but, especially, the king and his retainers, servants, guardsmen, etc. If there was a baby swap and they did it behind Aerys II's back - which would be pretty likely - then it is quite clear while it would have worked only with Aegon and not both children.

In light of the fact that Varys is the likeliest candidate for Doran's mysterious court informant who told him about Cersei's Trystane plan (something Cersei would have kept very quiet, meaning the little birds are the best source for this plan) one can imagine that Elia helped to set up some sort of working relationship between Varys and Doran - without the latter never being told that there had been a baby swap, of course.

I don't really buy that Varys wanted to drive a wedge between Rhaegar and Aerys II. Pointing out traitors during the Rebellion may have been actual traitors, and Aerys II going to Harrenhal may have prevented a civil war because Rhaegar backed down.

And how stable or promising Rhaegar looked after the Lyanna affair is completely unclear. Could be that Varys preferred the madness he knew to the madness of broken marriage (contracts) and polygamy.

But that's all a scenario where Aegon is actual Rhaegar's son. It could work, but I'm not sure it is the likeliest scenario.

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