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Lord Steffon's Tourney, Another Reading

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Megorova said:

If we'll be using the same kind of reasoning, then it was supposed to be Gerold Hightower, who should have sneaked into Duskendale, to save King Aerys, during his captivity. But instead it was Barristan Selmy.

 

It's not like he was chosen - Barristan offered: 

Quote

 

The World of Ice and Fire - The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

None will ever know for certain, thanks to the courage of Ser Barristan Selmy of the Kingsguard. Ser Barristan offered to enter the town in secret, find his way to the Dun Fort, and spirit the king to safety. Selmy had been known as Barristan the Bold since his youth, but this was a boldness that Tywin Lannister felt bordered on madness. Yet such was his respect for the prowess and courage of Ser Barristan that he gave him a day to attempt his plan before storming Duskendale.

 

 

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

It does makes sense, if at the time of that attack on Elia, she wasn't yet Aerys' daughter-in-law, or even one of prospects to become Rhaegar's bride. If that attack had happened prior death of Steffon Baratheon, then Aerys wouldn't give a shit about Elia and her wellbeing, because prior failure of Steffon's mission, Elia was of no interest to Aerys.

I agree that prior to her betrothal to Rhaegar, Elia would be of no interest to Aerys and therefore no valid reason for Hightower to be with her unless she were already part of the royal family. His presence and defense of her during the attack is confirmation that it occurred after she married Rhaegar. Ulmer's account of the attack places Hightower as Elia's escort. Why should your theory that they just "happened" to be traveling together bear more weight than an account described by one of the characters in the books?

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

For example, the attack on Elia could have happened in the end of 278, and the Brotherhood was finished in the beginning of 281, then there's only a bit over two years between those events. It took some time for those outlaws to become Aerys' concern (maybe over a year after attack on Elia. He could have paid to that event certain attention, only after Elia became Rhaegar's wife. T

I don't think it would take years of effort to win over small folk. Months should be sufficient.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Just because Elia was saved by Gerold Hightower, it doesn't mean, that he was in her escort. He could have been accidentally present in the same area, when Elia was attacked by KB. He could have been just passing by, and wasn't in Elia's escort.

This is just your theory. There isn't even a hint in the text to support it. I don't understand why you would object to the attack occurring after she was already married to Rhaegar? Ulmer's account places Hightower as Elia's escort. There is no reason for him to lie about that. The facts would be well known as being the reasons why Ulmer was sent to the Wall in the first place.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I agree that prior to her betrothal to Rhaegar, Elia would be of no interest to Aerys and therefore no valid reason for Hightower to be with her unless she were already part of the royal family. His presence and defense of her during the attack is confirmation that it occurred after she married Rhaegar.

Jaime is a Kingsguard. He protected Brienne from being raped by three Mummers. Does his presense confirm, that Brienne is a part of royal family? wife of Robert or Joffrey? Of course not. But we can say so, only because in her case, we have significally more information, about events of Brienne's voyage with Jaime, unlike that tiny bit of info, that we have, about what happened between Ulmer, Elia and Gerold.

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

It's not like he was chosen - Barristan offered: 

Arthur also could have offered. Considering that Gerold was already fairly old at that time.

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Why should your theory that they just "happened" to be traveling together bear more weight than an account described by one of the characters in the books?

Because the only character, from whom we have that info, could be lying about that event, and because of the way it was phrased in the book - "In his youth he had been an outlaw, a member of the infamous Kingswood Brotherhood. He claimed he'd once put an arrow through the hand of the White Bull of the Kingsguard to steal a kiss from the lips of a Dornish princess. He had stolen her jewels too, and a chest of golden dragons, but it was the kiss he liked to boast of in his cups."

That Ulmer in his youth was an outlow, is written like a fact. But that bit about him supposedly kissing Elia and wounding Gerold, sounds not like a fact. If that, what he said, that he did, was a fact, and not just his tall-tale, then there would have been no need for him to over and over tell that story to everyone. If it was a fact, then that would have been a reason, why he was sent to The Wall, and people around him would have known about his charges, same as it usually happens in a prison, where people always know, for what crime this or that person was imprisoned. "In his youth he had been an outlaw" - fact, "He claimed he'd once put an arrow through the hand of the White Bull" - not a fact, but a claiming, a claiming that could be true or false.

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

The facts would be well known as being the reasons why Ulmer was sent to the Wall in the first place.

Exactly. If it did happened, then that was the reason, why he ended up at The Wall, and there would have been no need for him to constantly brag and boast, about what he supposedly did. Does anyone else amongst people at The Wall brag about their crimes? - No. So, why is Ulmer doing this? Maybe, because everyone knows, that it's just a story, and not true?

Barristan never mentioned about that attack on Elia and Gerold. Neither did Oberyn, or Doran. Neither did Jaime, who also was a member of Kingsguards under Gerold's leadership. It wasn't mentioned by Jon Connington, who knew Elia. Wasn't mentioned by anyone else, like, for example, Arya thought about outlaws and Wenda. It wasn't even mentioned in The World Book, even though there was a bit of info about those events - "At five-and-ten, Ser Jaime Lannister was already a knight—an honor he had received from the hand of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, whom many considered to be the realm’s most chivalrous warrior. Jaime’s knighthood had been won during Ser Arthur’s campaign against the outlaws known as the Kingswood Brotherhood, and none could doubt his prowess." They could have mentioned then, that those outlaws attacked princess Elia, and wounded Lord Commander, but there was zero mentioning of that event, except from Ulmer.

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Ulmer's account places Hightower as Elia's escort. There is no reason for him to lie about that.

There IS. He's bragging about catching a really big fish, even though he didn't even went on a fishing, methaphorically speaking.

Just think about it - if he really stole a chest of golden dragons and Elia's jewellery, then there would have been no need for him to continue being an outlaw. It seems that you can't imagine how much money that is, and what can be done with it. Have you read Dunk & Egg novels? In span of those three stories, Dunk and Egg had only three silver coins, and they lasted for over two years, and by the end of The Mistery Knight, they still had two coins left. With a chest of golden coins Ulmer could have bought a castle, or several castles. He could have left Kingswood Brotherhood and lived a better life. But he didn't. Because that story of his is, most likely, a lie.

13 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I don't understand why you would object to the attack occurring after she was already married to Rhaegar?

Because that is very very very unlikely. It is a possibility, but very unlikely.

Elia and Rhaegar married in very early 280, and after their wedding went to Dragonstone. There's zero information about them going anywhere from there, between their wedding and them returning to KL, to present their daughter to her grandparents. At that time Rhaenys was 6-7 months old. Elia was breasfeeding her babies herself. A six-months old baby eats every 3-4 hours, so 8-6 times per day. Starting from 6 to 12 months, a baby can start to eat other food, besides breast milk. But that's in modern age, where there are blenders, yogurts, various sorts of purees, which was unavailable in Middle ages. So in that time period little babies were only breastfed, or possibly with time were given cow or goat milk. But I can't imagine Elia leaving her baby-daughter at KL with a wet-nurse, and going somewhere thru Kingswood, with her breasts leaking milk (it lasts for about up to two years after giving birth, if the mother is breastfeeding). Rhaenys was born not earlier than in the middle of September-October of 280, and thus she was 1 year old in September-October of 281. Aegon was born in December of 281. Tournament at Harrenhal happened sometime in the last two months of 281, so in November-December. Elia was present at that tournament, and at that time she was on her last months of her second pregnancy, and Rhaenys at that time was slightly over a year old. So, my guess is that Elia stopped breasfeeding Rhaenys, when she was 1 year old, that's when she became more authonomous, and Elia was able to leave her at KL, and went to Harrenhal. Though I can't imagine Rhaegar not going with his heavily pregnant wife, not escorting her, when she went to Harrenhal. It seems more likely (considering Aerys' physical and mental state at that time), that entire royal family went to Harrenhal via ship, from Blackwater Bay, up Blackwater Rush river, to God's Eye lake, on shore of which was standing Harrenhal. It takes about 2 days to get to Harrenhal fron KL via ship, and 14 days via land. Thus, the most likely option, is that they sailed. And by the time of Harrenhal's tournament, KB was already dealt with. Furthermore, after Jaime participated in KB's dawnfall, prior he went to Harrenhal, he had time to go to KL, then to Casterly Rock, then back again to KL, then to Harrenhal (with Aerys). Round trip KL - Casterly Rock - KL would have taken months. Months prior November of 281, when the tournament took place. Robb said, that the distance between Casterly Rock and KL is  a thousand leagues (3452 miles). Speed of horses on the road is 40 miles per day. But it was still winter, when Jaime went to Casterly Rock, thus the speed was slower, 30 miles per day. So, it took Jaime approximately 172-230 days (5.7-7.6 months) to go KL-CR-KL. And he spent some time with Cersei at KL, and then some time home at CR. So there was 6-8 months between Jaime fighting against Kingswood Brotherhood and his trip to Harrenhal. Six months prior November would be in the end of April, 8 months - in February. Thus, it's fairly possible, that the Kingswood Brotherhood was obliterated, while Elia and Rhaegar were still at Dragonstone. Of course, Jaime could have sailed from KL to CR, and that would have taken significantly less time, than going via land (unless the seas were frozen (because it was still winter), or too stormy to sail). That's why I'm saying, that Elia being attacked by KB in 281 is still a possibility, though a very small possibility. Because Jaime could have faced off against KB later in the year, than in February-April, and had time for his round trip (KL-CR-KL), and could have returned back just in time for Harrenhal's tournament.

But Elia at that time still was a mother of a little baby. Why would have Rhaegar allowed Elia (his wife, and mother of their 6-or-so-months-old baby) to go anywhere without him? Especially thru Kingswood, that was haunted by the band of outlaws? It doesn't make sense!

So, either Ulmer is lying, and that encounter never happened. Or it did happened, but prior 280, when Elia and Rhaegar were still unmarried. Because from after their wedding, Elia was too busy, she was preoccupied with her family, pregnancies and babies. 

That's why I object to the attack occurring after Elia was already married to Rhaegar. That possibility is very unlikely. Possible. But unlikely.

Edited by Megorova

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Jaime is a Kingsguard. He protected Brienne from being raped by three Mummers. Does his presense confirm, that Brienne is a part of royal family? wife of Robert or Joffrey? Of course not. But we can say so, only because in her case, we have significally more information, about events of Brienne's voyage with Jaime, unlike that tiny bit of info, that we have, about what happened between Ulmer, Elia and Gerold.

This is true, but we know it happened, because GRRM has provided the details as part of the story. It fleshes out both Jaime's and Brienne's arc, but we know very little about historical events. We are given general details which I believe do serve a purpose, and that purpose is to demonstrate that history does in fact, repeat itself.

Lyanna's kidnapping was a repeat of the attack on Elia, and the Rebellion itself was the detachment sent out to deal with the kidnappers. Gregor Clegane's raids in the Riverlands repeated the attack again, and then when Ned sent Beric Dondarrion out to deal with him that was a repeat of the detachment again. And then we had Arianne's group repeat the kidnapping, and Areo Hotah was the detachment sent out to deal with the kidnappers.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Arthur also could have offered. Considering that Gerold was already fairly old at that time.

We don't know how old Ser Gerold was or whether or not he was "fairly old". Just because he was referred to as "the old Bull" isn't confirmation of an advanced age. His physical description was that of someone very strong - like a bull - but for all we know he could have been of an age with Ser Arthur. We just don't know, so any speculations about why he did or didn't do something with regards to his age are pure spitballing. 

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Because the only character, from whom we have that info, could be lying about that event, and because of the way it was phrased in the book - "In his youth he had been an outlaw, a member of the infamous Kingswood Brotherhood. He claimed he'd once put an arrow through the hand of the White Bull of the Kingsguard to steal a kiss from the lips of a Dornish princess. He had stolen her jewels too, and a chest of golden dragons, but it was the kiss he liked to boast of in his cups."

Anything is possible my dear fellow Throney, but there must be a narrative  purpose for Ulmer to be lying. 

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Barristan never mentioned about that attack on Elia and Gerold. Neither did Oberyn, or Doran. Neither did Jaime, who also was a member of Kingsguards under Gerold's leadership. It wasn't mentioned by Jon Connington, who knew Elia. Wasn't mentioned by anyone else, like, for example, Arya thought about outlaws and Wenda. It wasn't even mentioned in The World Book, even though there was a bit of info about those events - "At five-and-ten, Ser Jaime Lannister was already a knight—an honor he had received from the hand of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, whom many considered to be the realm’s most chivalrous warrior. Jaime’s knighthood had been won during Ser Arthur’s campaign against the outlaws known as the Kingswood Brotherhood, and none could doubt his prowess." They could have mentioned then, that those outlaws attacked princess Elia, and wounded Lord Commander, but there was zero mentioning of that event, except from Ulmer.

Absence of evidence is not evidence. Enough said.

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Furthermore, after Jaime participated in KB's dawnfall, prior he went to Harrenhal, he had time to go to KL, then to Casterly Rock, then back again to KL, then to Harrenhal (with Aerys). Round trip KL - Casterly Rock - KL would have taken months. Months prior November of 281, when the tournament took place. Robb said, that the distance between Casterly Rock and KL is  a thousand leagues (3452 miles). Speed of horses on the road is 40 miles per day. But it was still winter, when Jaime went to Casterly Rock, thus the speed was slower, 30 miles per day. So, it took Jaime approximately 172-230 days (5.7-7.6 months) to go KL-CR-KL. And he spent some time with Cersei at KL, and then some time home at CR. So there was 6-8 months between Jaime fighting against Kingswood Brotherhood and his trip to Harrenhal.

In my opinion when a character says "a thousand leagues", it's not always literal. More likely the intention is more like "miles away" and akin to when characters say "a thousand, thousand years ago", which simply means "a long time ago".  In AGOT Tyrion III, Jeor Mormont said the Wall was "a hundred leagues long". THAT sounds like a factual number. The word "league" was originally meant to be the distance a person could easily walk in a day, and one league is commonly defined as three miles, therefore the Wall is 300 miles long. Do you really think Casterly Rock to Kings Landing is over ten times longer? Looking at the maps from The Lands of Ice and Fire, Casterly Rock to Harrenhal appears to be twice the distance of the Wall (600 miles) while Casterly Rock to Kings Landing looks like three lengths of the Wall, or rather 900 miles. Go see for yourself. (I used a sticky note just to get a rough estimate. LOL)

I love your enthusiasm as well as your detailed reasoning, but in order for me to believe Ulmer is lying there needs to be a purpose for him to lie.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

We are given general details which I believe do serve a purpose, and that purpose is to demonstrate that history does in fact, repeat itself.

Lyanna's kidnapping was a repeat of the attack on Elia, and the Rebellion itself was the detachment sent out to deal with the kidnappers. Gregor Clegane's raids in the Riverlands repeated the attack again, and then when Ned sent Beric Dondarrion out to deal with him that was a repeat of the detachment again. And then we had Arianne's group repeat the kidnapping, and Areo Hotah was the detachment sent out to deal with the kidnappers.

Hopefully I'm not wandering too far off topic, but I wanted to return to this and expand just a little bit.

I believe GRRM is trying to demonstrate that history does repeat itself. The event itself is repeated, but because there are different "players" with differing motivations "what happens" is a little different as well as the outcome. 

Repeated Historic Event: Kidnapping nobles

1) I suspect Elia's attack was meant to be a kidnapping, but Ser Gerold foiled the kidnappers. Simon Toyne wasn't the only leader of a group that carried out the kidnapping of nobles and held them for ransom. Case in point: see number 2.

2) Tywin and Kevan Lannister often kidnapped nobles who owed their father money. Kevan's wife was even the target of one of those kidnappings.

3) The belief that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna was the impetus that led to the Rebellion. My personal opinion is that he did not do the kidnapping and that he was a "stool pigeon". I suspect Tywin Lannister took advantage of Rhaegar's absence attending Aegon's birth to stage raids in the Riverlands with men dressed to look like Rhaegar and his men in order to undermine support for Rhaegar.

4)Beric Dondarrion's original purpose was to capture Gregor Clegane who had been raiding the Riverland in disguise with no banners. It's why Beric later named his group the Brotherhood Without Banners, because their king was dead so they weren't really fighting for any living person's cause, but rather to uphold the laws of Robert's realm and his Hand Ned. After King Robert died he said he and his men became the outlaws. This was proven true when they captured Arya and intended to hold her for ransom. 

5) Arianne had Ser Arys sneak Myrcella out of Sunspear. Her intent was to crown her as the legal heir to the Iron Throne, because she was older than Tommen. Myrcella wasn't even aware of the reason why Ser Arys brought her to that well in the desert and was confused when everyone began calling her "your grace". She was afraid it meant Tommen was dead. Arianne hoped her "kidnapping" would cause a war with Kings Landing   allowing for the various Houses of Dorne to take revenge for Elia. Arianne's added benefit would be multiple Houses supporting her claim to inheriting Dorne from her father, because she was afraid he was passing her inheritance onto Quentyn.

 

Repeated Historic Event: Detachments sent to deal with the kidnappers

1) King Aerys sent a detachment led by Ser Arthur Dayne to deal with the Kingswood Brotherhood.

2) No detachment was sent out to stop Tywin Lannister. Any House that avoided having a family member kidnapped and mocked or refused to pay Tywin was severely dealt with. Tywin murdered two whole families: the Tarbecks and the Reynes, so I guess you could say Tywin was also his own detachment.

3) Jon Arryn defied King Aerys by refusing to turn over Ned and Robert and raised his own banners to build his own detachment. Houses Baratheon and Stark signed on from the very beginning. House Tully signed on after marriage alliances part way through the Rebellion, and Houses Greyjoy and Lannister joined near the very end. The large detachment killed the "kidnapper" and exterminated the majority of his family.

4) Beric was the detachment sent to deal with Gregor Clegane, and later when Beric became the outlaw, multiple detachments were sent to look for Beric - but Beric wouldn't stay dead until the 7th time and then he passed the torch to Lady Stoneheart. Jaime dispatched Brienne to look for Sansa and Arya, so she's a type of detachment, and she stumbled upon Lady Stoneheart's men who have turned the tables on the detachment. The kidnappers have captured the detachment!

5) Areo Hotah was the leader of the detachment sent to deal with the kidnappers. 

 

Circling back to Ulmer. It is quite possible that he is lying, but we have no evidence that he is. I personally would like some type of confession, because I don't think Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and I think any admission from Ulmer that he made the whole story up might lead to some clues about Lyanna's true kidnappers. That is why I originally pounced on the contradictions with Steffon's Tourney. I suspected Barristan Selmy shared some secret with Jaime, but I have no evidence at this time to support my suspicions.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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