Political Map at the end of TWoW

[nyser1]

What do you think the map looks like at the end of the upcoming book/the beginning of the final book?

[The Young Maester]

• To start off the Stormlands will be under the Golden companys control, with maybe kings landing as well.
• The Reach i reckon we shall see a civil war break out where some ambitious lord desires to unseat the Tyrells (looking at Tarly).
• Dorne will be Dorne.
• The Westerlands are hard to say. Its obvious that by the end of twow, lannister power will be deteriorating.
• If Red Wedding 2.0 happens at riverrun, the Riverlands will become a mess, full of brigands and outlaws, whilst i also suspect a frey civil war if Walder were to die. 
• The North will probably be under full control of either bolton, stannis, or one of the stark children.
• Iron Islands might just abandon Euron once they realise how mad he is. And if Asha is released somehow, they might actually follow the Kraken's daughter.   
• The Vale will remain as it is, but probably will involve itself on the ongoing wars. With either Harry as lord or sweetrobin under the regency of the lords declarant, because Sansa will be littlefingers downfall. 
• Whilst the Crownlands will be under whoever controls kings landing, cuz thats all they are good for. 

[asongofheresy]

• Stormlands will be under Aegon's rule

• Reach will witness a conflict between Ironborn and Golden Company

• Riverlands will be war torn with BWB active

• KL will be a mess as the two queens fight

• Vale will be neutral

• Dorne will be neutral but news of Quentyn's death may affect them

• Westerlands will be absent but deaths of Tywin and Kevan will affect them as the ruling house is reduced to boy lords 

• North will fight against Boltons with Stannis leading them - the Wall will be a mess considering another LC was murdered by mutiny and Wildling and kneelers clashing with each other 

[Moiraine Sedai]

The landscape will be under the ice.  There won't be any politicking going on.  Westeros reverts to hunting and scavenging.  The smart ones will have gone to Essos or at the least swallowed whatever amount of pride is needed and established relationships with the east.  Food has to come from somewhere.

 

[nyser1]

I am in agreement with some of what I see above. I think by the end of the book, the Vale and Dorne will have entered the fray.

 

North: This could go so many ways. By the end of this book, the Boltons are done. Stannis/Rickon are up in the air. I think they will both be dead before the Others are stopped, but I will guess at this point that they are both dead. The North is behind Jon/Bran (perhaps Sansa has returned North?).

 

Vale: I would like to see Baelish continue to scheme, but I think both he and Harry the heir will die. Sansa will use what she had learned to exert her influence over Robin. The Vale will militarily become involved in the North (on the side of the Stark family).

 

Riverlands: Instability central. The Tullies are still around (Edmure alive, Blackfish on the run, Cat/Stoneheart hanging Freys). I think we will see a combo of Stoneheart/BWB kiling Freys along with Freys killing Freys. Combined with what is going on in the Crownlands/Reach/Stormlands/North, the Riverlands will be a mess until ADOS.

 

Crownlands: Bloodbath. While the Tyrells move out to engage Aegon/Ironborn, Cersei unleashes the wildfire plot. Many die including Marg and her son. The Sand Snakes contribute to some of the chaos.

Stormlands: Aegon convinces the Tyrell forces he faces to join him. Additionally, a formal marriage pact is made between him and Arianne. When he approaches the capital, he either finds a city of Ashes or joins the Ashes.

Dorne: The Sand Snakes cause problems for the Tyrells and Lannisters via KL and Oldtown. Myrcella dies early on, Doran and Trystane die by the end of the book.

 

Reach: Euron is losing to the Redwyne Fleet when he uses magic to win. Garlan dies heroically (Willas lives). The region is torn by conflicts on multiple fronts and lords are tempted to pick a variety of factions. With that said, most of the fighting by the Reach's forces will be in the Crownlands, Stormlands, or by Oldtown.

 

Iron Islands: We will not see anything from here. We will see Euron's fight through Damphair and Victarion bringing Dany a navy.

 

Across the narrow sea: Dany sets sail west (sadly Barristan will be dead at this point).

[Lumosaca]

Meereen is simply going to colapse with so many problems happening at the same time. It's destiny is fire and blood. 

Roose Bolton will not be controlling Winterfell for more than a year. His vassals despise him and someone needs to get him out of that castle before the Others start their invasion. Stannis and Manderly should take care of this problem, but Jon and Sansa are also possible options.

The South will be slowly consumed by Aegon's campaign. He will defeat Mace, conquer the Stormlands, forge an alliance with House Martell, receive support from Targaryen loyalists across the continent and maybe even save Oldtown from the Ironborn. There, he could be proclaimed Lord of the Seven Kingdoms with the same crown Aegon the Conqueror used three hundred years ago, since history tends to repeat itself. The next and easier step would be take the capital and finally sit on the Iron Throne. Cersei will probably sail to Casterly Rock after taking revenge on Margaery and the High Sparrow. 

After that, War of the Dawn and Dance of the Dragons.

[sweetsunray]

Stormlands: under control of Aegon

Dorne: alliance with Aegon in the form of a marriage pact between Aegon and Arianne. Doran Martell might be dead before the end of tWoW, though like Cersei he might live ong enough to see what his careful games have wrought.

Crownlands: several rebellious lords ally with Aegon and become important in withholding food from KL: Rosby, Stokeworth, Duskendale. At some point several of the towns and castles ruled by Lords who once backed Renly but accepted Joffrey after being defeated at the Battle of the Blackwater and are close to the border of the Crownlands will defect for Aegon as well. The castles that were abandoned by those who followed Stannis North will readily surrender to Aegon.

KL: much of the initial focus will be on the murder of Kevan and Pycelle, the High Sparrow's political games and trials, the Dornish snakes in council and with the High Sparrow. Cersei will mainly ignore the danger of Aegon, feel confident in the capture of Dragonstone and Mace Tyrell being stupid, and will continue to gun for Margaery. She will ignore the choke hold the rest of the Crownlands have on KL, do atrocious things with wildfire, making all but sure that Tyrell allies turn on her. While stubbornly clinging to hold the city, people will open its gates to Aegon. Cersei flees with one last remaining child (Tommen or Myrcella) to Casterly Rock.

The Reach: Oldtown falls. The Ironborn will continue to wreck the Reach. With the Crown's inattention, those who are not conquered by Ironborn will flock to Aegon.

Iron Islands: still in the hands of Euron and loving him for all the victories he ensures for them.

Riverlands: RW2 at Riverrun, and retaking of Darry + ambush attack on the Lannister force in valley of the Golden Tooth killing the whole force there (Ambiorix ambush style who slaughtered a whole Roman legion this way) the Many houses will rebel against the crown again. Vance, Piper, Smallwood, Blackwood, Mallister and those who followed Robb before, will ally with the BwB (in fact, I think they already are). Once Edmure but most of all his child is out of Lannister hands, they will openly defy the Lannisters again. This will keep many of the Lannister forces stationed in the RL unable to come to Cersei's and Tommen's aid, ending up mostly slaughtered by BwB, rebelling houses and wolves. Meanwhile Maidenpool will join Aegon's side. With the help of Crannogmen, I expect an ambush on the Twins itself. By this point I expect Arya to be a POV in the Riverlands. I think the Crannogmen have a lock system in the Neck with which they can flood areas. This they will use to blanket the area around the Twins, making the bridge between the twin castles accessible. While yes, most of the Freys would kill one another once Walder Frey dies, much of that will already be happening in suspicious ways. The BwBs actions in aFfC and aDwD already made half-brothers openly hostile to one another.

The Vale: an avalanche followed by an attack of the Clans of the Mountains of the Moon, under Timett's leadership, on the Bloody Gate will be the death of many, including HtH and Littlefinger. Sansa (and SR?) escapes to the one house least affected by this: Yohn Royce. It's no coincidence that Lord Grafton of Gulltown comes to the tourney, while Runestone is that close to it. Gulltown most likely will end up allying with Royce. When Sansa (and SR?) fall into Royce's hands, this will make the other houses who've lost many of their formed lords and ladies in the avalanche flock to him. Depending on SR dying or not, the rest of the Vale houses will either unite behind SR's new regent or they will be at each other's throat, as several have some Arryn blood in their branch. If SR survives, Royce will arrange a marriage between SR and one of his daughters or granddaughters. If not, Royce might be cunning enough to arrange a marriage between Timett (an Arryn by blood) and a daughter/granddaughter of his. Despite the natural inclination to regard all of the Clans as murderous trash, I think Timett is actually a figure who unites three factions within him: Arryn Andal blood, First Men following, Firy religion. tWoW will end with either Sansa leaving for White Harbor or arriving there, and (some) backing by the Vale.

The North: Stannis wins the Battle of the Ice Lakes - most of the Frey soldiers end up drowning, freezing and killed. Winterfell is taken by subterfuge. Much of the early part of the book will be about retaking Winterfell, allowing time for Stannis or a Manderly or one of the lords who signed Robb's will to claim Winterfell for a Stark. In that time Davos manages to acquire Rickon, Osha and Shaggy and potentially make a deal win the Skagosi over into an alliance. Unfortunately I fear Davos will land in Eastwatch, believing the NW to still be backing Stannis. But Cotter Pyke is believed to be lost at Hardhome, a Slynt ally has command there instead, and Kettlebacks with men for the NW with the mission to kill Starks will have arrived too. Hence Rickon falls in the hands of the enemy, costing his life. Nevertheless, the news of his existence and survival is enough to make more houses flock behind Stark. If Rickon wasn't killed, then so wasn't Bran. This is further fueled by Sansa's arrival at White Harbor with Vale support. Rule reverts back to the Starks in name over the North. I do not think Stannis survives tWoW, though I think he may not fall anywhere near Winterfell. Perhaps it's the Nightfort or as he aims to come down on the Twins. The North will declare independence once again, with the Riverlands and Vale as ally. Davos is symbolically reborn a Stark man the moment he was sent away from the Wolf's Den. By the time he arrives at Eastwatch he will believe Stannis dead. He'll escape or be freed and make it to Last Hearth.

The Wall: there are quite strong foreshadowing hints that the Others are in fact at the rim of the Haunted Forest just north of CB during the assassination attempt. The drawing of Jon's blood suffices to allow the Others the raise the dead in Castle Black as wights. It actually might have been happened unseen (but heard) at the end of Jon's last chapter in aDwD after Wittlestick cut Jon's neck. The mayhem will come at further great cost of lives, but the mutiny will be very, very short-lived. The survivors mourn their dead and Mel ends up burning Shyreen and Patchface either at CB or Nightfort. The Wall will be split in those who follow Jon's "legacy" from CB to the Shadow Tower (serpent looking), while the eastern half especially Eastwatch believe both Stannis and Jon to be dead. Eventually the Wall and the NW will ally with Jon (resurrected or healed) and might even come to support to release him from his vows to be KitN, once they learn of Robb's will. Having an independent king who fully backs the Wall's purpose who was one of theirs might be appealing to them, especially after Cersei's plotting comes fully known, the news of Cersei's impending loss to Aegon, etc...

Beyond the Wall: George alluded we might go more norht than we've ever been before. Sounds like there will be a group of people attempting to venture to the Heart of the Lands of Always Winter to strike out at the Others. I don't immediately see how Bran will manage to physically get from the cave to CB in the present state of the Lands of Always Winter. I think Bran sends Meera, Hodor and Summer (and pack) to reach Castle Black. Summer and the other wolves basically will be Meera's escort to safety, and Summer will be the evidence that Bran lives.

Essos: Dany goes to Vaes Dothrak and rallies a great many Dothraki to back her. Meereen will win the battle with the slaver force outside their walls. They will however lose the fight against the Pale Mare, and the in-fighting of factions. I think Selmy Barristan will fall victim to Shakaz's plotting. Eventually there will be an exodus to conquer Volantis, and Dany will join this effort with the Dothraki. Once Volantis falls, I expect the other remaining Free Cities such as Lys to work out a deal where she will not attack them in return for their agreement not to further buy slaves (the slave cathcing and markets have dried up mostly anyway). With Tyrion revealing the existence of Aegon and Illyrio's involvement in this to Dany, she fully agrees to sack Pentos and hand it to the Tattered Prince. She sets sail for Westeros around the time Aegon is hailed as a heroic king in KL.

 

 

 

 

[Br16]

On 6/29/2019 at 10:50 PM, nyser1 said:

What do you think the map looks like at the end of the upcoming book/the beginning of the final book?

Reach: Mace loses to Young Griff and dies in battle in an Agincourt style mess. Oldtown is breached by Euron through sorcery and deception. House Hightower is wiped out and Citadel is sacked. Survivors (including many wealthy and highborn) are enslaved (to foreign slavers and Iron islands) to the shock of the realm. Reach left in Chaos as Tyrell power disintegrates. Lynesse becomes Lady of Hightower as sole survivor and Jorah wins jackpot due to still being technically married to her.

North: Wall is brought down and worst case scenario happens. Stannis defeats Boltons but is destroyed by NK zombie hoard. Refugees stream to Moat Cailin and White Harbor.

Crownlands: Cersei regains control and calls in Lannister reinforcements while Mace rushes to protect his lands from Euron, and is defeated by Young Griff halfway. Young Griff plans secret assault on capital with help of Varys and Dornish Spears.

Vale: Harry the Heir and LF both die unexpectedly while civil war erupts over control of the young sickly lord. Sansa stuck with bastard status and flees to Braavos with LF's secret money stash. 

Stormslands: Under control of Young Griff. 

Riverlands: Lord Frey dies and is succeeded by Frey Succession War. General mess continues. 

Westerlands: Under Lannister control but deteriorating. 

Dorne: Sides with (F)Aegon after Quentyn death news arrives. 

Essos: Dany rallies Dothraki and manages to use her dragons effectively. Defeats Slavers and leaves a smoldering disease ridden Meereen to conquer/liberate Volantis and link up with Red priests. Victorian, Barristan are dead at this point. Dany supports destruction of Pentos after concluding Illyrio is supporting Blackfyre Aegon (Mummer's dragon).