Arianne's snitch

[It_spelt_Magalhaes]

We've all been very trained in always seeing plots within plots. But here I think it was a bit amateur hour. Quite like Maester Aemon knew Jon would try to leave, Arianne's plan and the people involved seem a bit novice. Even she notices. All it would take was someone bragging, some two or more of her conspirators speaking in an unguarded place. Imo, this is one instance where we're hearing zebra hooves when it's just an unshod horse.

Aero says 'someone told' but it might simply be his view on it or indeed a lesson from Doran. After all, 'someone always tells'. It doesn't need to be directly. Some secrets start being told in confindence, but end up being whispered in reach of the wrong ears. In the future, it'd befit a Princess of Dorne to be more skillful in her plots.

And wouldn't it be worse? To make her doubt her chosen conspirators, despite her not wanting to?

I'm more inclined to think it was an amateur's mistake that sold them out. When playing at treason, sometimes the breadth of people in on the secret gets too large, maybe more easily still than one of few 'snitching'.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 7/1/2019 at 4:19 PM, Davjos said:

I agree with the reasoning of @sweetsunray. The person who betrayed Ariane knew where the boat was leaving from, thus it cannot be Drey, despite him being on face value the most likely candidate.  Good read! 

I don't think the snitch had to know that necessarily. If Doran or Hotah knew the area well enough and knew the final destination, they could rather easily have worked out which route Arianne would take to get there. Hotah got ahead of them, which means he not only knew how to get to the right spot, but possibly how to get there via another route so they wouldn't see him go past them (or he just got up insanely early, which makes sense, plus a lone rider can go faster than a group, don't mind me, just thinking out loud here). S

I still think it was Arys, but I'm okay with that being wrong.

sweetsunray, you've laid out a decent case but I'm not convinced that's what happened.

What about Tyene? If she and Arianne talked about a plan to crown Myrcella they might well have talked about different ways to go about it, potential routes to take, etc. And while Tyene was on house arrest she might have thought she could bargain for her freedom by telling Doran his daughter had a dangerous plan that could ruin everything. She could even have told Uncle Doran well in advance and he could have had Arianne watched a bit more closely, waiting to see if she actually would try it rather than condemning her based on Tyene's word alone.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 7/1/2019 at 4:58 PM, sweetsunray said:

I know many believe so, but his actions to kill Myrcella contradict this.

Assuming he was trying to kill her and not trying to save her from someone else who was trying to kill her. Since we don't see what's going on (thank you, Arianne, for being focused on Arys and Hotah) we don't know for sure what happened.

 

On 7/1/2019 at 4:05 PM, Ran said:

I'm inclined to Drey as well. He has an obvious motive, namely the hope to marry Arianne, which he might have believed this show of loyalty toward Doran would have opened the door to. His alacrity in surrendering, and in particular his urging Arianne to surrender as well, can be explained as his just being sensible... but maybe also he's just ready for what happened.

I get the idea of him trying to get in good with her father, but if he wants to marry the girl betraying her trust is not the best way to get her consent to the match.

On 7/1/2019 at 7:19 PM, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

Rosemund Lannister ,

As ye olde snitch? I doubt it. Who would tell the stunt double? All she'd need to know is her cousin and the KG were going somewhere. 

 

[sweetsunray]

10 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I don't think the snitch had to know that necessarily. If Doran or Hotah knew the area well enough and knew the final destination, they could rather easily have worked out which route Arianne would take to get there. Hotah got ahead of them, which means he not only knew how to get to the right spot, but possibly how to get there via another route so they wouldn't see him go past them (or he just got up insanely early, which makes sense, plus a lone rider can go faster than a group, don't mind me, just thinking out loud here). S

I still think it was Arys, but I'm okay with that being wrong.

sweetsunray, you've laid out a decent case but I'm not convinced that's what happened.

You could make that case for a general location. But it wasn't a general location that Garin was racing towards at the end, but some secluded spot, hidden by a tree. Garin obviously knew where he was going precisely and he greets the people he expects to be there as if he knows them really well. That is not something that Hotah could have done on any information from Drey or Dayne, let alone Sylva. He had that from the people of the boat themselves.

10 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

What about Tyene? If she and Arianne talked about a plan to crown Myrcella they might well have talked about different ways to go about it, potential routes to take, etc. And while Tyene was on house arrest she might have thought she could bargain for her freedom by telling Doran his daughter had a dangerous plan that could ruin everything. She could even have told Uncle Doran well in advance and he could have had Arianne watched a bit more closely, waiting to see if she actually would try it rather than condemning her based on Tyene's word alone.

Tyene already hinted at crowning Myrcella of her own accord, but hers was a different plan than Arianne's. Arianne doesn't work out her plan later, when she starts to convince Arys. And since Arianne believed Tyene and the other Sand Snakes were being badly treated and accomodated in her confrontation with Doran, while they were not, this shows Arianne had no contact with the Sand Snakes and thus not Tyene, since they were locked away. All that Tyene could have told to Doran was that Arianne meant to crown Myrcella. And that's too vague for Doran and Hotah to work out Arianne's plan themselves. Tyene would also have known that Arianne would have had an affair with Ser Arys, something she would not have discussed as 24-year old with her male friends anymore. Doran did not know this until Arianne says so during the confrontation.

It's also curious how he demands to know how Arianne discovered that Quentyn was abroad (through Garin and his cousins), and afterwards Doran makes the comment about Garin being a gossip like any Orphan.

[Likely Luke Strong]

I think the arguments for Drey and Garin are both more or less convincing so I’ll just combine them and say Drey was the snitch but Areo could pinpoint the location because of Garin’s loose lips

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 7/1/2019 at 4:05 PM, Ran said:

I'm inclined to Drey as well. He has an obvious motive, namely the hope to marry Arianne, which he might have believed this show of loyalty toward Doran would have opened the door to. His alacrity in surrendering, and in particular his urging Arianne to surrender as well, can be explained as his just being sensible... but maybe also he's just ready for what happened.

I'm also very uncertain at the idea that Drey did not know about where they were going next. Arianne's explanation of the plan is for Myrcella's benefit, this doesn't mean the rest are in the dark.

I'm not sure where I fall on the snitch belief -- I used to think it was Darkstar but this thread is illuminating -- but I'd like to defend Drey a little bit here. He basically tells the group he's not very bold and Garin more or less calls him a coward in a friendly way. His speedy surrender is in line with what little we know of his character.

“High Hermitage is not the only castle in Dorne,” Spotted Sylva pointed out, “and you have other knights who love you well. Drey is a knight.”
“I am,” he affirmed. “I have a wonderful horse and a very fine sword, and my valor is second to . . . well, several, actually.”
“More like several hundred, ser,” said Garin.”

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 7/12/2019 at 6:07 PM, sweetsunray said:

<snip

I'll keep this thread in mind when I get to AFFC in my re-read.

[sweetsunray]

On 7/2/2019 at 3:10 PM, Seams said:

I don't know if it would help to examine other "foiled escape" scenarios, but I can think of a couple.

When Ned plans to leave King's Landing, he tells Arya and Sansa. Sansa informs Cersei and Joffrey.

The Redwyne Twins have a connection to Myrcella's Dorne sojourn:

When Jon Snow tries to desert from the Night's Watch at the end of AGoT, the Lord Commander tells him that his attempt was anticipated and watched and that he would have been brought back by other means if his friends had not persuaded him to return.

I don't know that there are clear parallel characters in Arianne's arc that would match up with Sansa, Varys and Sam Tarly (Maester Aemon?) in these other examples, but maybe a detail surrounding one of the other snitches could help to identify the tattle-tale in Arianne's story.

On the other hand, the "someone always talks" explanation may be like the vague explanation for how Varys knows so much: "little birds."

Yes, we even get the warning between Jon and Arya: "Don't tell Sansa!" early on, because she cannot keep something to herself. 

Doran specifically points out that Garin is a well intended blab, and Arianne actually thinks of Orphans and Garin as gossips and boasters herself, but fails to make the realisation that Garin blabbing about others to her, also can work the other way around. 

[sweetsunray]

On 7/2/2019 at 5:20 PM, It_spelt_Magalhaes said:

We've all been very trained in always seeing plots within plots. But here I think it was a bit amateur hour. Quite like Maester Aemon knew Jon would try to leave, Arianne's plan and the people involved seem a bit novice. Even she notices. All it would take was someone bragging, some two or more of her conspirators speaking in an unguarded place. Imo, this is one instance where we're hearing zebra hooves when it's just an unshod horse.

Aero says 'someone told' but it might simply be his view on it or indeed a lesson from Doran. After all, 'someone always tells'. It doesn't need to be directly. Some secrets start being told in confindence, but end up being whispered in reach of the wrong ears. In the future, it'd befit a Princess of Dorne to be more skillful in her plots.

And wouldn't it be worse? To make her doubt her chosen conspirators, despite her not wanting to?

I'm more inclined to think it was an amateur's mistake that sold them out. When playing at treason, sometimes the breadth of people in on the secret gets too large, maybe more easily still than one of few 'snitching'.

Yes, Arianne's seduction of Arys may have been well played, but both she and the Sand Snakes come across as summer children so green behind the ears you can smell the grass. And then when you have the actual chapter where Arianne and Co abduct Myrcella and intend to "runaway" and crown her, almost all of Arianne's friends read like these super naive teens on a field trip they only planned out less than half of the way.  Only Arys acts weary enough, but even he is quite naive we know from Sansa's chapters.  Gerold Dayne is the sole man within the team who comes across as an adult knowing what he's about, and he's up to no good. So, yeah, team amatueur plotting treason less than half the way acting as if it's a field trip. 

I also agree that both Areo and Doran do not actually reveal how they came to know of it, exactly because Arianne needs to learn to be less trusting with people, even those who are indeed loyal to her, but just way too naive and trusting of others themselves. 

However, we do get tips that Garin is the most naive and easiest talker of all, and also the one who was necessary to help make the contacts for the first leg of the journey. Sylva and Drey are written as far less knowledgeable of the actual route that was planned out, and are going along to please Arianne.  

 

[Bronn Urgandy]

Keep an eye out for a character called ‘someone’ in the next book

[Greywater-Watch]

Darkstar has been excluded by many posters due to his attack on Myrcella at the very last possible moment (when Hotah appeared and told all conspirators to surrender).

It still bothers me though that Doran called Darkstar the "most dangerous man in Dorne".

What if Darkstar told Doran/Hotah about the plan and then - completely unexpected for Hotah (and for Doran) - attacked Myrcella. Thus taking Hotah by surprise?

I mean, if Darkstar was the one who told Doran/Hotah, then Hotah would have told his men not to shoot at Darkstar, thus Darkstar could hope to be safe in the middle of the confusion and thus have free hands for some seconds?

And this surprising action taking even Doran aback and lead him to call Darkstar the most dangerous man in Dorne?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I think Spotted Sylva is the snitch. Doran sent Garin and Drey into exile, is sending Hotah and Obara to allegedly kill Darkstar, but Sylva's punishment did not come down from him, but from her father instead. Maybe he was never intent on punishing her at all and didn't think her father's punishment would be as harsh as not only sending her away, but marrying her off to a seventy year old man.