Cycling - 2022 the remco show

[BigFatCoward]

Giro starts soon, favourites are clearly Yates based on form this year and Bernal assuming he has recovered from his back issues. Landa has looked OK, Evenepoel may be the new coming of Merckx. Other than that I don't see anyone else winning.  Maybe Vlasov as an outsider, and Hindley if he can get back to last years form but he has shown nothing so far this year. 

Off topic but Froome this year being the highest paid rider and not breaking the top 100 in most stages is sad to see. 

[lmanion]

Haven't seen much of the guys going for the giro this year apart from seeing Sagan get back in some form with a stage win at romandie last week. Geraint Thomas was looking pretty good form wise for the tour later in the year. 

I can't wait to see what evanpoel can do with the way a lot of young guys have taken over in the last year or 2.

[BigFatCoward]

Now it begins, 8km TT, nobody should lose more than 30-45 seconds on the best GC candidate. 

1. Ganna, though not been in great form

2. Remco because why not

3. Cavagna because he has looked good recently.  

 

[lmanion]

Ganna was pretty amazing considering his last couple of ITT performances. Showed him putting out 7-800 watts a couple of times when they pulled up the data.

Remco put in a really good performance considering his long layoff and the injury that caused it, very interested to see how he holds up over 3 weeks.

Vlasov and Almeida picked up a nice little advantage over Yates, Bernal and the rest. However with the amount of climbing in this giro 10-20 seconds isnt really a huge differential to make up.

[BigFatCoward]

Poor Landa. It was his best chance with his form seeming to be good, and a route that suited him. 

[BigFatCoward]

Tomorrow could be the best day of the giro, unpaved roads are totally unpredictable. Bernal was 3rd this year in strade bianchie so should be the favourite from the GC contenders. 

[Jon AS]

21 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Tomorrow could be the best day of the giro, unpaved roads are totally unpredictable. Bernal was 3rd this year in strade bianchie so should be the favourite from the GC contenders. 

Good call on that, Bernal looked pretty comfortable there.

[Maltaran]

Bad day for Evenepoel, I guess 9 months out was bound to show sometime. Nice to see Carthy up there.

[BigFatCoward]

First proper Mountain top finish tomorrow. Zoncolan from the easier side but its still a fucking monster. If Yates wants to do anything he needs to light it up tomorrow, but I assume Bernal will take more time out of the other GC contenders. Carthy won on angliru last year which is a similar style climb, so may fancy it. 

[lmanion]

If Carthy wins on zoncolan then that's 2 huge mountains he will have won on that are becoming legendary climbs, would love to see it. I'm hoping Yates is just holding back his form to the last half of the giro and can shake up the top of the gc because the way Bernal is going the last week could get boring if nobody can challenge him. I don't think Ineos just let a breakaway go to the finish today either.

[BigFatCoward]

Meh. Bernal clearly the best by a mile. Yates needs to have a remarkable 3rd week turnaround to make this interesting  

[lmanion]

Yeah can't see anyone topping Bernal can only hope for some crazy racing to mix it up in the last week

[lmanion]

Massive sigh the queen stage has been shortened with only the final climb over 2000m being included. Seems to happen so often in the giro. It's absolutely pissing rain as well.

[Jon AS]

Nice win by Martin that sees him join the club of riders who have stage wins in all three grand tours under their belt.

 

Bernal definitely looked vulnerable today, but even if that's not a one-off, that time cushion should still see him through to the final day.

[BigFatCoward]

15 hours ago, Jon AS said:

Nice win by Martin that sees him join the club of riders who have stage wins in all three grand tours under their belt.

 

Bernal definitely looked vulnerable today, but even if that's not a one-off, that time cushion should still see him through to the final day.

That was excellent by Dan Martin. 

If Yates has timed his peak perfectly he still probably can't win as the remaining stages aren't hard enough, unless Bernal has a total collapse or his back is fucked. Neither are great TT'ers so its a big deficit. I'm betting Bernal is thankful today isn't too taxing. Hopefully it was just a bad day after a rest day for him. 

[Jon AS]

Definitely no collapse by Bernal, even with both Yates and Caruso managing some pretty convincing stage wins in the last few days.

But man, what a terrible mistake by Cavagna in the last corner. That was shaping up to be a super close finish for the stage win. Glad he didn't seem hurt, and even with that crash he still managed to salvage 2nd place.

[lmanion]

Shame for cavagna to lose the TT like that although his comments about evening it up for Ganna because of the flat were definately the right way to deal with it. 

First real look at most of the tdf field in the TT of the dauphine today will be good although obviously missing pogacar and roglic.

[BigFatCoward]

So, we appear to have 2 hot favourites from a teeny tiny country with no cycling pedigree, an insanely strong Ineos team and a load of other contenders who probably need something to go wrong for the real favourites to podium. The route is ok, no massive 7 hour 5 climb queen stage, but the 2 TT with close to 60 km of total Distance is a plus.

Pogacar is clear no 1 favourite for me, he has been great all season, is only going to get better as he gets older and doesn't have any obvious weaknesses (though his team is definitely weaker than ineos and Jumbo). I think he is slightly over rated based on his performance in the final TT last year, he has never done a one like that before or since. 

Roglic is the best one week stage racer in last 20 years. But he has blown a couple of 3 week stage races and his vuelta wins were not hugely impressive. Not racing at all in the build up may help him with his 3rd week performance drop off. 

Carapaz/Thomas, one is a great climber, one is a great TT rider, can Carapaz raise his TT game, or GT recover his 2018 climbing form, and can they use ineos insane team strength and take it to the 2 favourites. If they do their normal Ineos train it plays right into Pogacar's hands. 

Richie Porte/Tao Geoghan Hart, Richie has looked excellent this year, Hart less so, but if they are on form and one of the other leaders has an issue they could need to step up. If they are used to tire out the Slovenians and ditch their teams and leave them isolated it makes it wide open, but they are probably going to be too tired to take advantage themselves if that is the case.

Alaphillipe, no chance, he should forget the GC battle and win stages.

Uran, shit for years but the TT he did last week at tour du Suisse was immense. 

Lopez, no chance, will lose 4 mins in the 2 TT at least. 

Mas, maybe top 5 if the stars align.

Gaudu will lose too much in the TT but expect him to he very strong in the mountains.

Nairo, can't TT and is past it. Should try for mountains Jersey. 

Buchman no chance

Kelderman blew his best chance in the Giro

Froome, I just hope he doesn't embarrass himself. 

Kruijswijk/Kuss, all in for Roglic and even if he crashes out they don't look like they could podium. 

Sagan v Van der Poel v Bennett v van Aert could be great for the green jersey, though van Aert will likely be committed to supporting Roglic too much have a chance. 

No idea why Bahrain aren't sending Padun after his amazing back to back Dauphine mountain wins, but with Caruso being awesome at the Giro they clearly have something up their sleeve  

[lmanion]

Pretty much agree. I'm hoping Uran has a good 3 weeks and I'm not sure about Ineos team selection leaving Dennis out even if he is moving teams that's a lot of horsepower for the flat that can also climb. I don't think Teo is up to being the leader and I think the team will back Porte unless Carapaz and Thomas fail early plus he is lacking a bit on the downhills.

Bahrain is really curious not taking padun or Landa who must not have recovered from the big giro crash. Bilbao and Haig for gc? Maybe top 10 chances.

Israel have straight up said Froome is a support rider for Woods and Martin. I expect him to finish but not well, hopefully he finds his legs towards the end and can try for a break in the mountains.

Van aert apparently had his appendix removed recently so I think he will use most of his energy this year on roglic. Even though he did just win the national road title. Roglic will be interesting because the flatter TTs should suit him better than pogacar who won the national TT title last year on a similar course to the tour TT last year. On a much flatter course this year he finished 3rd. Pogacar has been in good form but it's a bit harder to pick what form roglic has.

The first couple of stages should be excellent fun with bad weather and cross winds forecast for the first week. Van der poel has already said his aim is to wear yellow in honour of his grandfather. Most of what I've seen is he is likely to get to the first rest day and pull out to concentrate on the Olympic mountain bike race. Sagan I think has to be favourite for green this year with Bennett coming back off a knee injury and Van aert using a lot of energy on roglic. Plus it's a contract year for Sagan and he I think already announced he was going to leave Bora.

I'm hoping Ewan can get at least one stage win to give him a chance at winning a stage at all the grand tours this year which he said is his goal for the year. Real shame we won't be seeing Cavendish always been a big fan of his and his return to form this year has been awesome to see.

Movistar and Ineos might be in a big fight in the teams classification by the last week looking at the climbing strength of both teams. Not that anyone really pays attention to that though.

[Maltaran]

1 hour ago, lmanion said:

Pretty much agree. I'm hoping Uran has a good 3 weeks and I'm not sure about Ineos team selection leaving Dennis out even if he is moving teams that's a lot of horsepower for the flat that can also climb. I don't think Teo is up to being the leader and I think the team will back Porte unless Carapaz and Thomas fail early plus he is lacking a bit on the downhills.

Bahrain is really curious not taking padun or Landa who must not have recovered from the big giro crash. Bilbao and Haig for gc? Maybe top 10 chances.

Israel have straight up said Froome is a support rider for Woods and Martin. I expect him to finish but not well, hopefully he finds his legs towards the end and can try for a break in the mountains.

Van aert apparently had his appendix removed recently so I think he will use most of his energy this year on roglic. Even though he did just win the national road title. Roglic will be interesting because the flatter TTs should suit him better than pogacar who won the national TT title last year on a similar course to the tour TT last year. On a much flatter course this year he finished 3rd. Pogacar has been in good form but it's a bit harder to pick what form roglic has.

The first couple of stages should be excellent fun with bad weather and cross winds forecast for the first week. Van der poel has already said his aim is to wear yellow in honour of his grandfather. Most of what I've seen is he is likely to get to the first rest day and pull out to concentrate on the Olympic mountain bike race. Sagan I think has to be favourite for green this year with Bennett coming back off a knee injury and Van aert using a lot of energy on roglic. Plus it's a contract year for Sagan and he I think already announced he was going to leave Bora.

I'm hoping Ewan can get at least one stage win to give him a chance at winning a stage at all the grand tours this year which he said is his goal for the year. Real shame we won't be seeing Cavendish always been a big fan of his and his return to form this year has been awesome to see.

Movistar and Ineos might be in a big fight in the teams classification by the last week looking at the climbing strength of both teams. Not that anyone really pays attention to that though.

Movistar always pays attention to the teams classification