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DanteGabriel

US Politics: RIP EHK FYVM GOP

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Ran said:

A note from a moderator:

 

In a thread full of people sharing links to stories to discuss, it's worthwhile that if you have a countervailing story that you share a source for that story rather than just making a claim that has to be taken on faith. It leads to a lot of trouble when someone shows up and says things that could be construed as misleading or outright false because there's literally nothing offered to show the claim has some kind of basis in fact.

I’ll add a link to my post when I get home. I still don’t know how to add links from my phone...

eta: Er, or did you mean the other guy? Lol! Catholic guilt!

Edited by Fragile Bird

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2 minutes ago, Ormond said:

As a psychologist I'm not sure polling the same people is the best method for this question, as there is research showing that asking someone to publicly state an opinion tends to make it less likely for them to change it. I would expect that factor to operate for some people even on an "anonymous" survey since they know they are being asked the same question by the same organization. 

It does begin to answer the question of who Biden is losing supporters to - mostly Harris, but also many of the other candidates (including Sanders)

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Kalbear said:

A BernieBro told me on Twitter that I was probably making up my son's cancer in order to gain sympathy. Please don't gaslight me and tell me my experiences aren't actually 'real'. 

And that's really not my point, anyway. I would have expected those Sanders voters to have largely stayed with Sanders this time around as well. But instead we have probably half or more of them defecting entirely, both in voting preference and in money. That's unusual in general - usually people who have picked a side stay with that side for a while psychologically - and it's unusual given the relative passion and youth of the supporters that Sanders had. But that doesn't appear to be the case here. 

That just sounds like a dick (and has little to do with Bernie.) This time we have Warren and Bernie and many others. Such a big field makes sense to me--people have a lot of choices. If Warren dropped out tomorrow, I bet Bernie's support would increase dramatically, don't you?

Edit: I'll add too, the craze and excitement surrounding Bernie was never about Bernie. Just his message. As a Marxist, I recognize neither Bernie nor Warren as true socialists, just kind of the best options right now. If AOC could run, I might shift to her. If a true Marxist ran (Richard Wolff or Slavoj Zizek let's say), I'd probably support them. This is not the centrist media's claim of a cult of personality. In fact, that is where the gaslighting has truly occurred. If you support Bernie, it's all about a cult of personality vs. Bernie represents something that a large demographic believes in. Ending income inequality and shutting down the "rich get richer" pyramid scheme (don't worry, if you follow us, it'll trickle down to you! Then yours will trickle down to two more!) that the U.S. is currently built upon.

Edited by Simon Steele

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Posted (edited)

This says Sanders support grew. I'm not sold that his numbers plummeted. I think, if anything, he stayed roughly the same. Which isn't surprising at all. 

538 shows little/no change (within margin of error) for Bernie. I think these narratives of Bernie's drop seem a bit too eager to sell an agenda.

Edited by Simon Steele

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The point about Sanders isn't that he lost support after the debates - it's that Warren had already eaten into his support at a significant clip for the couple weeks before the debates, and that erosion for Sanders appears to have stabilized.

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3 hours ago, Kalbear said:

And that's really not my point, anyway. I would have expected those Sanders voters to have largely stayed with Sanders this time around as well. But instead we have probably half or more of them defecting entirely, both in voting preference and in money. That's unusual in general - usually people who have picked a side stay with that side for a while psychologically - and it's unusual given the relative passion and youth of the supporters that Sanders had. But that doesn't appear to be the case here. 

But the side is based on ideas, not on the person. It was always strange to have Sanders as the youth candidate simply because he was so old -- he's nearly 5 years older than Trump (who is the oldest person to be elected to a first term) and if he were to win in 2020, he'd be the oldest to first assume the office by 9 years. Also, Sanders lost the 2016 primary, but he has already won in that the best of his ideas are now mainstream.

Incidentally, Biden has the same age problem -- he's only a year younger than Sanders. There are individuals who, even past the age of 75, are capable of competing with 50 and 60 somethings in rhetoric, but this is not true of most people.

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1 hour ago, Simon Steele said:

That just sounds like a dick (and has little to do with Bernie.) This time we have Warren and Bernie and many others. Such a big field makes sense to me--people have a lot of choices. If Warren dropped out tomorrow, I bet Bernie's support would increase dramatically, don't you?

Edit: I'll add too, the craze and excitement surrounding Bernie was never about Bernie. Just his message. As a Marxist, I recognize neither Bernie nor Warren as true socialists, just kind of the best options right now. If AOC could run, I might shift to her. If a true Marxist ran (Richard Wolff or Slavoj Zizek let's say), I'd probably support them. This is not the centrist media's claim of a cult of personality. In fact, that is where the gaslighting has truly occurred. If you support Bernie, it's all about a cult of personality vs. Bernie represents something that a large demographic believes in. Ending income inequality and shutting down the "rich get richer" pyramid scheme (don't worry, if you follow us, it'll trickle down to you! Then yours will trickle down to two more!) that the U.S. is currently built upon.

It sounds to me more like you enjoy the exciting new liberal flavor of the month.

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51 minutes ago, DMC said:

Joaquin Castro FTW:

 

Some of the fucking comments blow my goddamn mind. "Troops, homeless people, poor american's etc also live in conditions like that! So it's okay!" Like wtf? Even if that true IT'S NOT FUCKING OKAY THEN EITHER! This is shit to be ashamed of on every level. WTF is wrong with people?

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21 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

Some of the fucking comments blow my goddamn mind. "Troops, homeless people, poor american's etc also live in conditions like that! So it's okay!" Like wtf? Even if that true IT'S NOT FUCKING OKAY THEN EITHER! This is shit to be ashamed of on every level. WTF is wrong with people?

All things are possible through christ.

Meanwhile, I'm reading all about these predictors of a recession and it makes me worry that these dumbasses with their economic warnings are going to stave off a perfectly good depression for a few years and ruin everything. I'm with Randal Quarles, there's nothing wrong and nobody should look at nothing! In fact, if I had the money I'd pay to keep these opinions suppressed.

I mean it, I'm really starting to feel taken advantage of.

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Anecdotal, but...

 

...Hmm - context first -

I have several younger quasi-relatives (cousins, in-laws) who were or are in the army.   This bunch posts on Facebook fairly often; FB being what it is, I see not just their posts, but the posts of their friends, some of whom are also military.  

 

Anyhow, the one quasi-relative (did a tour in Afghanistan in the old days, left the service, reupped) is being deployed to an 'unspecified location' for an extended period (8-10 months) with little or no outside contact.  This is not just him, it is his entire unit, and from the bits dropped, there are a *lot* of other units being sent on the QT to this undisclosed location.  Troop totals likely in the 4-5 digit range.  Said quasi-relatives unit was routed through Hawaii; owing to superb military efficiency, his unit ended up with an extended layover there (aka vacation).

 

Almost like somebody is putting together an army in the ME on the sly....

 

thoughts?

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538 did a bigger detail into where the support came from for Harris. As expected, it's mostly Biden, but the interesting parts to me are the differences between the people who watched the debate and people who didn't. 

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6 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Anecdotal, but...

 

...Hmm - context first -

I have several younger quasi-relatives (cousins, in-laws) who were or are in the army.   This bunch posts on Facebook fairly often; FB being what it is, I see not just their posts, but the posts of their friends, some of whom are also military.  

 

Anyhow, the one quasi-relative (did a tour in Afghanistan in the old days, left the service, reupped) is being deployed to an 'unspecified location' for an extended period (8-10 months) with little or no outside contact.  This is not just him, it is his entire unit, and from the bits dropped, there are a *lot* of other units being sent on the QT to this undisclosed location.  Troop totals likely in the 4-5 digit range.  Said quasi-relatives unit was routed through Hawaii; owing to superb military efficiency, his unit ended up with an extended layover there (aka vacation).

 

Almost like somebody is putting together an army in the ME on the sly....

 

thoughts?

We gonna bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran!

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We are all wondering that, Joshua. 

Quote

In a frazzled hearing on Thursday, DOJ attorney Joshua Gardner practically begged Hazel not to accuse him of misleading the court. “What I told the court yesterday was absolutely my best understanding of the state of affairs,” Gardner said. “The tweet this morning was the first I had heard of the President’s position on this issue, just like the plaintiffs and Your Honor. I do not have a deeper understanding of what that means at this juncture other than what the President has tweeted. But, obviously, as you can imagine, I am doing my absolute best to figure out what’s going on.”

Trump Tweet Causes DOJ to Reverse Course in Census Case After Promising Court It Was Over

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/07/trump-tweet-census-citizenship-question-william-barr-circus.html

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Boys will be boys am I right?

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/07/judge-new-jersey-16-year-old-rape-victim-good-family-college-scores-bias-privilege-destroy-life.html

Really, imagine how many predators this asshole let go because they were from a “good family” and did well in school. 

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2 hours ago, TrueMetis said:

Some of the fucking comments blow my goddamn mind. "Troops, homeless people, poor american's etc also live in conditions like that! So it's okay!" Like wtf? Even if that true IT'S NOT FUCKING OKAY THEN EITHER! This is shit to be ashamed of on every level. WTF is wrong with people?

Exactly why are our citizens being treated like subhumans justification to treat others like subhuman? The logic is so warped. 

And upon reading this statement I couldn’t help but remember Abu Grabi:https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2013/10/30/world/meast/iraq-prison-abuse-scandal-fast-facts/index.html

I wonder if Ingram’s first resonate to that was “well it’s not really worse than the conditions we place on American prisoners”

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Quote

 

President Donald Trump brushed off the inhumane conditions migrants are being held in at U.S. detention centers at the southern border, saying that if migrants are “unhappy” there, “just tell them not to come.” 

“If Illegal Immigrants are unhappy with the conditions in the quickly built or refitted detentions centers, just tell them not to come,” Trump tweeted Wednesday. “All problems solved!”   

Help us tell more of the stories that matter from voices that too often remain unheard.
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In earlier tweets, he said that U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers “are not hospital workers, doctors or nurses,” and he claimed migrants were “living far better now than where they came from.”

 

Trump Dismisses Bad Conditions In Detention Centers Amid Jarring Reports
“If Illegal Immigrants are unhappy with the conditions in… detentions centers, just tell them not to come,” the president tweeted.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/trump-border-detention-centers-conditions_n_5d1d1d1ae4b01b8347311748

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22 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Wait, he died on my birthday? I didn't know that at the time. Though technically not on my birthday as I experienced it, because it was probably the 4th here. So I will toast his memory on the 4th of July from across the other side of the dateline.

I edited the OP. I did a little research and discovered I got the date and year wrong. It was indeed July 4, and it's been ten years. Memory can be so treacherous. I was so sure it was in the heat of the 2008 election. I am crestfallen at the mistake I made. Sorry for making you think it happened on your birthday.

With the way things are going here it's hard to want to celebrate July 4th in some traditional way. For this year, at least, I'll think of it as EHK Day.

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So the debates featured awesome podiums.  See through, futuristic, lit up when someone had the talking conch.   Dems enjoy a clear edge over conservatives in the podium sciences.   The candidates were not as transparent.   Well, Jay was.   He just don't like Trump.  Harris wasn't.   It's a Hillary-ish calculated thing from her---   After you get past the obvious Dem issues, and you start asking yourself what stance she'd take on the kinds of issues that'd actually crop up and have to be dealt with, you realize you have no idea how she'd come down on Anything, in any way.   On purpose.  She's keeping her flock from splitting off, by not being anything other than a symbolic presence, free of specifics, and an angry one.   That bussing shot at oldman Biden was much more "manufactured" than the border crisis- - Biden has always tried, and has always been on the right side of history.  The bussing he was against was of kids from better school districts into worse......and America still agrees with him to this day on that.  You know, the oh so progressive America of now.   So, it was bullshit divisive shit from the OG Bullshit Party, dividing Biden's flock while keeping her own intact by revealing nothing of political identity herself.   Because it's about winning.  And that's all.  Nothing more.  Unfortunately.   It's not about governing, certainly.  As we've seen over the last couple decades.   She did electrify the womens, though, upon occasion, I noticed.  That's telling.   Looks like she's getting the better writers, the sharper tricks squad.

Cory was my guy, though.  First time I'd seen him.  Liked the way he took over the stage and other people's talking time.  Very presidential.   And bald, but in the way that works.  Like, asskicking bald.  I also like the way his answers were all equally intense, no matter what he was talking about.  He'd be just as deadly serious whether the question was about life and death stuff or the possibility of a 90210 reunion:  "I find that question hurtful.  Having been raised near the sewers I know when something smells, and 90210 absolutely reeked."

Hickenlooper came off as surprisingly sane, so of course he's out of the running.  Not with the times.   And was it him or a second guy who kept saying, "I've already DONE all the things the rest of these people are only talking about doing"?   Yeah.  He's done.  Accomplishments aren't going to be popular on that stage.  It only gets in the way of hardcore unicorning, everyone else's sport of choice.

Bernie is promising Trump level changes.  He's here to clean up the swamp too.   He defines the swamp as megacorporations, not the District of Columbia, is the only difference.    The Potus is only one job slot, though.   I doubt Bernie would make any more headway against his swamp than Trump has against his.   And Warren just wants all sorts of things.   She does a better job in person of avoiding that loon sound, unlike Bernie who loons it hard and deep, with gusto.   But the totality of Warren is so inescapably nuts.   I don't know which of them should bow out so the other can double up on supporters.   But the two of them should probably thumb wrestle to figure it out.  Bernie might want to watch her off hand to make sure he doesn't get scalped.  

The author Maryann was charmingly drunk sounding, or maybe that's a debate style in the South that I'm not culturally woke to.   Kind of witchy-bitter in the way she talked about love.   Struck me as an accurate depiction of a random Democrat pulled up on stage and given a microphone to vent their post-2016 mindblown paranoia.    Did anyone else notice how Tulsi Gabbart wasn't allowed to speak for like more than an hour?   I hear she's associated with some kind of cult in her past, but that might just be hearsay, and she's hot.  So I blame the moleman, Chuck Todd, who is the bad kind of bald, because his hairs have all abandoned him to escape the highly concentrated evil in broadcasting he represents, each hair pulling in a random direction in its desperate attempt to find a better place, a more pleasant existence elsewhere.   I remember a time when he could legitimately lay claim to the term Journalist, too.  That makes his weasel turn all the more sad.

There were more candidates.   But they've all disappeared from my recollection like Bubbas receding into the mist.   There was that guy who pledged to undo the environmental damage as the top priority.   But you know what?   Everybody then raised their hands to say they'd do Obamacare II The Sequel for illegal immigrants.  Which was like..... what are we even looking at this party for then?   They just lost the election in unison.    I mean talk about oblivious.    And what a letdown!  It was the equivalent of when pro wrestlers put on a great 30 minute match.....and then someone comes out from backstage to ruin the ending by delivering a chair shot to both of them.  Again, I blame Chuck Todd.    Rachel Maddow made me chuckle a couple times, though, oddly improving my opinion of her.  Overall, it was a good time, both nights, moreso than you'd expect from a non-debate format for a debate.   Party on, Provda!

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43 minutes ago, The Mother of The Others said:

 

There were more candidates.   But they've all disappeared from my recollection like Bubbas receding into the mist.   There was that guy who pledged to undo the environmental damage as the top priority.   But you know what?   Everybody then raised their hands to say they'd do Obamacare II The Sequel for illegal immigrants.  Which was like..... what are we even looking at this party for then?   They just lost the election in unison.    I mean talk about oblivious.    And what a letdown!  It was the equivalent of when pro wrestlers put on a great 30 minute match.....and then someone comes out from backstage to ruin the ending by delivering a chair shot to both of them.  Again, I blame Chuck Todd.    Rachel Maddow made me chuckle a couple times, though, oddly improving my opinion of her.  Overall, it was a good time, both nights, moreso than you'd expect from a non-debate format for a debate.   Party on, Provda!

Well, to be honest, the Dems shouldn't say this (they will lose), but on the flip side, they absolutely should lie about it this time.

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