German politics. Flinten-Uschi defying the laws of gravity

[A Horse Named Stranger]

 

18 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Don't celebrate now you'll jinx it 

Nah, they were only barely above the 5% mark (5.0x%) due to a counting error in one of the polling stations Langenhorn (Northern precinct next to the Airport), rather retirees and working class neighbourhood, who are not tradional FDP voters by any stretch of the imagination. The polling station in question was also close by where former chancellor Helmut "Smokey" Schmidt had lived, so there was this additional FDP grudge.

Anyway, there they unexpectedly had a vote share of 23% or so. Which looked suspicious, since the Greens only got 5% in that polling station. Suspicion was, that they accidently got the Green votes, so they double checked it. And yeah, that was exactly what happened.

They were with those Green votes ~100 votes in total above the 5% mark. Now that this error has been corrected they are a few hundreds votes short.

So I am reasonably optimistic.

[Varysblackfyre321]

This will on top of the human life lost to the disease itself probably lead to a massive uptick in the AFD during the next election. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/28/after-refusing-italy-travel-curbs-germany-becomes-a-top-10-coronavirus-nation/amp/

I'll be relieved if I'm wrong. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

11 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

This will on top of the human life lost to the disease itself probably lead to a massive uptick in the AFD during the next election. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/28/after-refusing-italy-travel-curbs-germany-becomes-a-top-10-coronavirus-nation/amp/

I'll be relieved if I'm wrong. 

No upcoming major elections this year. And I doubt we will still be talking about Corona next year.

[The guy from the Vale]

We'll see if this has any effect at all during the municipal elections here in Bavaria. I guess those will be the only ones where Corona might matter. 

[Loge]

4 hours ago, The guy from the Vale said:

We'll see if this has any effect at all during the municipal elections here in Bavaria. I guess those will be the only ones where Corona might matter. 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Coronavirus could have a profound impact on the economy. The Stock markets tanked quite badly last week.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

So the Fascist is now standing as a candidate in Thüringen himself.

This will be fun. Let's see if either CDU or FDP are capable of doing the right thing. Ok, that was poor wording on my part. Whether they are capable of doing the moral thing.

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

So the Fascist is now standing as a candidate in Thüringen himself.

This will be fun. Let's see if either CDU or FDP are capable of doing the right thing. Ok, that was poor wording on my part. Whether they are capable of doing the moral thing.

I put it to the likelihood of Ramsey Bolton becoming a pacifist.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Söder as chancellor? What do you guys think? No, very no or please kill me now?

I get all my information about German politics from the TV show quer nowadays and I'm not really up to date.

Edit: Not completly true I must admit I saw something about a young guy they called "Kurz der CSU" being incompetent at being corrupt.

[Loge]

3 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Söder as chancellor? What do you guys think? No, very no or please kill me now?

I get all my information about German politics from the TV show quer nowadays and I'm not really up to date.

Edit: Not completly true I must admit I saw something about a young guy they called "Kurz der CSU" being incompetent at being corrupt.

There aren't that many alternatives. Laschet obviously wants the job. If he manages to get elected as chairman he might have a chance. Not sure if Merz stands a chance. With AKK's withdrawal and von der Leyen in Brussels there aren't many potential candidates left.

[kiko]

Laschet on the reason that he offends nobody too much. I really hope for Merz as candidate - this should raise the chances for everyone else. But I may eat my own words later. 

Söder only has a chance if everyone else manages to self destruct. As we can see with this Amthor guy ( a very kurz Kurz?!), this is a not too distant possibly.

If Söder then it will get interesting. If SPD is smart (yes, I know) they will nominate Scholz, so the conservatives have the choice between a conservative Sozi or a *Bavarian* everything to everyone. Or obviously Green. 

I feel compelled to say Green because it seems I will get bullied into joining that party, even though I have never voted for them

According to the recent polls  CDU plus Mövenpick-party have a majority now, which sounds slightly scary if you consider the duo März/Lindner.

So kids, vote Green, I guess.

[Wylla Manderly]

51 minutes ago, kiko said:

Laschet on the reason that he offends nobody too much. I really hope for Merz as candidate - this should raise the chances for everyone else. But I may eat my own words later. 

Söder only has a chance if everyone else manages to self destruct. As we can see with this Amthor guy ( a very kurz Kurz?!), this is a not too distant possibly.

If Söder then it will get interesting. If SPD is smart (yes, I know) they will nominate Scholz, so the conservatives have the choice between a conservative Sozi or a *Bavarian* everything to everyone. Or obviously Green. 

I feel compelled to say Green because it seems I will get bullied into joining that party, even though I have never voted for them

According to the recent polls  CDU plus Mövenpick-party have a majority now, which sounds slightly scary if you consider the duo März/Lindner.

So kids, vote Green, I guess.

I partly agreee to your post.

I also think  that Merz as a canidate for the CDU would benefit the left of center parties. I never understood how anyone could be in favor of him. But I actually think Söder is more likely than Laschet. Söder gets benefits by some of his stricter measures in Bavaria against Covid. And Laschet is not handling the recent outbreaks in the meat factories in NRW well. So I think it will be Söder - shudders. Regarding Amthor, I never really understood his appeal to some. He always seemed way "older" than a lot of other politicians and more like someone who sees politics as a career move but without substance.

The current "high" of the CDU is mainly about the handling of the Covid situation imo. I really know how this will develope the next future, especially if the unemployment figures go up. I really hope the AFD won't profit by a declining economy - luckily the are currently preoccupied with themselves.

Regarding the SPD there was an article yesterday in the Zeit (behinde a paywall now, so I won't link) that it is very likely to be Scholz. Even the leftists in the party think he would be the best candidate. Especially because he is now willing to actually spend money during the crisis.

Regarding the Greens I hope they would rather nominate Baerbock than Habeck, but think it is unlikely.

Regarding the F.D.P. the newest poll shows them under 5 %. I hope it stays this way.

And I really wish the AFD would go the same way or atleast stays under 10 %.

Not really care for the Left.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Interessting thanks. 

 

https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000118209069/mehr-als-1000-mitarbeiter-eines-deutschen-schlachthofs-positiv-getestet

The shitty German labor standards when it comes to low status jobs were always a bit of a nightmare from an outsiders point of view but this is even worse than the usual stuff. But the economy right? The land of the Aufstocker  and Werkverträge I guess.  Edit: Not that our treatment of workers from eastern Europe is better.

[Varysblackfyre321]

3 hours ago, Wylla Manderly said:

I partly agreee to your post.

I also think  that Merz as a canidate for the CDU would benefit the left of center parties. I never understood how anyone could be in favor of him. But I actually think Söder is more likely than Laschet. Söder gets benefits by some of his stricter measures in Bavaria against Covid. And Laschet is not handling the recent outbreaks in the meat factories in NRW well. So I think it will be Söder - shudders. Regarding Amthor, I never really understood his appeal to some. He always seemed way "older" than a lot of other politicians and more like someone who sees politics as a career move but without substance.

The current "high" of the CDU is mainly about the handling of the Covid situation imo. I really know how this will develope the next future, especially if the unemployment figures go up. I really hope the AFD won't profit by a declining economy - luckily the are currently preoccupied with themselves.

Regarding the SPD there was an article yesterday in the Zeit (behinde a paywall now, so I won't link) that it is very likely to be Scholz. Even the leftists in the party think he would be the best candidate. Especially because he is now willing to actually spend money during the crisis.

Regarding the Greens I hope they would rather nominate Baerbock than Habeck, but think it is unlikely.

Regarding the F.D.P. the newest poll shows them under 5 %. I hope it stays this way.

And I really wish the AFD would go the same way or atleast stays under 10 %.

Not really care for the Left.

Ah,  I remember the days where the expectation was that they’d stay under 5%. 
Leaves a gross taste in my mouth seeing people hope they just don’t get more than 10%.

[Luzifer's right hand]

8 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Ah,  I remember the days where the expectation was that they’d stay under 5%. 
Leaves a gross taste in my mouth seeing people hope they just don’t get more than 10%.

The CDU could move to the right(just adopt the party line of the CSU?)! . Worked pretty well for Kurz here in Austria. The ÖVP is about as far right now as the FPÖ was in the early 2000s.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 hours ago, Loge said:

There aren't that many alternatives. Laschet obviously wants the job. If he manages to get elected as chairman he might have a chance. Not sure if Merz stands a chance. With AKK's withdrawal and von der Leyen in Brussels there aren't many potential candidates left.

Sorry, the implication of that post is, that Uschi would've been a candidate to become chancellor, if she didn't go to Brussels. Which is on its face an absurd claim. She was deeply unpopular across the board, and widely regarded as one of the weaker ministers (I think only Scheuer is enjoying a more negative job rating). That's what made her promotion to Brussels so outrageous (check first posts on this thread).

I have no idea, who the CDU will pick, my hunch is, they will go with either Merz or Söder (seven help us). The good thing from Merz running is, I can see him cannibalizing the FDP vote. So maybe I should join the the Fritze bandwagon. Even if he is infact a bitter defeated loser, who got beaten pretty badly by Merkel.

5 hours ago, kiko said:

If Söder then it will get interesting. If SPD is smart (yes, I know) they will nominate Scholz, so the conservatives have the choice between a conservative Sozi or a *Bavarian* everything to everyone. Or obviously Green. 

They will pick Scholz, because of the lack of alternatives. Who else are they supposed to pick? Maas?

4 hours ago, Wylla Manderly said:

Regarding the Greens I hope they would rather nominate Baerbock than Habeck, but think it is unlikely.

I am more on team Habeck here. Fellow northener, and more charismatic than Baerbock. Altho, I also do find him to be a bit tiresome, when he falls in love with his own voice.

4 hours ago, Wylla Manderly said:

The current "high" of the CDU is mainly about the handling of the Covid situation imo. I really know how this will develope the next future, especially if the unemployment figures go up. I really hope the AFD won't profit by a declining economy - luckily the are currently preoccupied with themselves.

Basically yes. I don't mean to shit anymore on the SPD than I usually do, but that they as a party in goverment, despite wide approval of the goverments handling do not benefit from it in the slightest, is not good news for them. But this feels like kicking a guy when he is already down. I am mildly curious how much of that corona bonus the CDU will have at the next election (if any). Merkel is definately not running again, and she is as of right now the most popular politician in Germany, for whatever reason.

WRT AfD. I think they will be more busy with their infighting for a while. Kalwitz will fight his expulsion by legal means. The Spiegel ran a cover story on it a few weeks ago. Bottom line: his chances of getting his expulsion voided are pretty good. After that it will get difficult for the more moderate Meuthen to survive this politically. With the Himmler lookalike and Höcke then officially emboldened and running the show, they will drift even further towards the right. Sidenote. It really tells you all you need to know about this party, when von fucking Storch is considered to be a moderate there.

[kiko]

Lucky you added that last sentence. Meuthen isn't at all better than the rest of this shit show. They are just better at concealing their contempt for the republic.

 

 

Can anyone clue me up on this Baerbock vs Habeck? I thought the women in the Green party always have the first pick. So shouldn't it be clear who will be in the pool position?

[kiko]

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

The CDU could move to the right(just adopt the party line of the CSU?)! . Worked pretty well for Kurz here in Austria. The ÖVP is about as far right now as the FPÖ was in the early 2000s.

Funnily enough the CSU under Söder is lurching to the left. (So to a place where they hardly can smell the body odor of the AFD). They protect the bees and everything.

If they keep feeding Söder with doctored pools, he might end up a communist.

But still. Does  anyone really believe that people would vote for a CSU candidate?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, kiko said:

Can anyone clue me up on this Baerbock vs Habeck? I thought the women in the Green party always have the first pick. So shouldn't it be clear who will be in the pool position?

Yes, and no.

The first place on the list is traditionally reserved for a woman. It's a symbolic gesture (a good one), but I wouldn't put more into than that. The Greens run a tandem at the top as sign of equality and to represent both the Fundis (progressives) and Realos (moderates) wing of the party. Looking at it historically, I don't think anybody would claim that Göring-Eckardt had seniority over Trittin. This ticket is a bit different, as both Harbeck and Baerbock are both more on the realo end of the party.

Anyway, this might actually be the first time they are in a position to run a candidate for chancellor. So the question is, who will be the face of the party and represent the party in possible tv debates against one of Merz/Laschet/Söder. They have thus far avoided a showdown on that question, they will have to make a decission on that at the next party conference.

1 hour ago, kiko said:

Funnily enough the CSU under Söder is lurching to the left. (So to a place where they hardly can smell the body odor of the AFD). They protect the bees and everything.

Not really. Söder is an opportunistic pos. Him and Seehofer peddled heavily towards the right, as some sort of AfD light in the spirit of FJS. Which was a somewhat flawed strategy, as in, why would people vote for an AfD light, when they can also vote for the original, and they also started to bleed votes on the moderate/central end. You know how this story ended. The CSU was rewarded with heavy losses at the last Bavarian election, with the Greens happily eating into the moderate CSU vote, who were not fond of their AfD light posturing. The lesson Söder learnt there was, he will lose more votes on the moderate end, than he can hope to win on the right end - add to that the youth vote, where the Greens tend to run the scoreboard, it weakens a bit the older you get, but voters who are now under the age 40 are more likely to show up at election for the next decades. So he is now trying to copy the Green party, or at least paying lip service to it, in order to contain the Green growth.

[kiko]

I agree with that. He is really that shifty. CSU sees Green as their main enemy. Too bad that people her are so darn right wing. Must be something in the air. But even their main competitor only forces them to go to bed with either F.D.P. or CSU light a.k.a. Freie Wähler.

If he really would run for chancellor, he would get 50% here in Bavaria. Not that I see that he will be allowed to run. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

36 minutes ago, kiko said:

I agree with that. He is really that shifty. CSU sees Green as their main enemy. Too bad that people her are so darn right wing. Must be something in the air. But even their main competitor only forces them to go to bed with either F.D.P. or CSU light a.k.a. Freie Wähler.

If he really would run for chancellor, he would get 50% here in Bavaria. Not that I see that he will be allowed to run. 

You live in extremly left leaning area of Bavaria though :p. I live closer to the real "fun" Bavarians than you I think.