German politics. Flinten-Uschi defying the laws of gravity

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, kiko said:

I was somewhat hoping for a Merz win. Nobody sane would vote for him, right? Right?

But on a more serious note. Considering that CDU will win anyway ( coming back to the state of the sanity of the voters...), he is the best choice available. 

Since I'm exiled in Bavaria, how is the situation back home? Any chance to kick out CDU and especially F.D.P. In Düsseldorf now?

Why would you say that?

[Mindwalker]

58 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Why would you say that?

Can't speak or @kiko, but the SPD has been in shambles for years... decades... and have you met their candidate? I know folks are complaining of Biden's lack of charisma, but compared to Olaf Scholz he's, well, excting and inspiring! Their latest strike of genius: Attacking the government's corona policy while being... a part of said government. 

And the threat of Chancellor Merz has not been eliminated, as his defeat for party chair was quite narrow.

[The Wondering Wolf]

35 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

And the threat of Chancellor Merz has not been eliminated, as his defeat for party chair was quite narrow.

Sure, but I think if CDU/CSU think they need a candidate with a more conservative profile than Laschet (whatever that may mean), it will be rather Söder than Merz. Merz lost any important election within the last 20 years, he ran for leadership of his party for two times within two years and lost both times. Laschet could make the different wings of his party support him, Merz would have to fight against the more liberal and progressive ones in his party right from the beginning. He may be the favourite of the CDU base (especially in Eastern Germany), but he is not really favoured by the establishment and the political centre of the country.

I guess it will be Söder. He will get around 32% and form a coalition with the Greens (around 19%). SPD a bit weaker than the Greens, AfD around 11%, the so called Liberals around 6% and the Left Party around 8%. Numbers might change a bit if Laschet runs instead, but not that much in my opinion. And in the end we will get the worst from both the CDU/CSU and the Greens. I am not really optimistic about the whole year (there are at least five federal elections, as well), but I would love to be proven wrong.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

And the threat of Chancellor Merz has not been eliminated, as his defeat for party chair was quite narrow.

Yeah, I hoped he would bugger off again, but seems like he is intent to get the ministry for economic affairs and energy. Assuming the Greens end up forming a coalition with the CDU after the next federal election, the CDU will have to part with either finances or economic affairs, if the CDU insists on the economic affairs ministry, I just assume it won't involve ernergy, as that would become a department for ministry of the enviroment. Anyway, point I wanted to make, he won't get his way, throw a tantrum, and walk away because he couldn't fully implement his agenda. The super ministry, he is probably imagining for himself (basically the chancellor in the shadows) will not materialize.

Now I want to know, which of the two clowns will be the next chancellor. The oafish Franconian jackass, or the the hobbit. Depending on the answer, I can finally make up my mind, who I want to be on top of the Green ticket. If it's Söder, I want Baerbock, if it's Laschet I want Habeck.

[kiko]

I think Söder only has a chance if the CDU can't manage to have an internal truce now. They are really good at that since power is very dear to their hearts. I could imagine that Merz is going to shut up now for the promise of something ego boosting under chancellor Laschet. He knows that Merkel wouldn't even touch him with a ten foot pole. Söder will obviously not be part of a cabinet Laschet, so they need to buy off the CSU with another insane Bavarian project.

But if Merz can't shut up, then they might decide that Söder is a very promising compromise. Soooo....if I were Söder, I would make Merz a counter offer now. Welcome to super minister Merz!

If I were in any position of influence right now, I would start digging for the bodies now. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Merz is a petulant manchild, and a loser. His first bid for power was denied by Merkel. After that he went to into hiding under a black rock. He came back to try to claim his birthright, and was defeated by AKK and Merkel. Now he has been defeated by Laschet. And yet he again he ends up making demands. Fritzchen, if you happen to read this by any off chance. People don't like you, get over it. Just continue being a social cancer at blackrock, where you are at least out of sight.

[Mindwalker]

Ah, remember how a homeless man found Merz' laptop, returned it to him, and got his book as a reward? (Topic: The end of the illusion of wealth, or similar). Or when he, a millionnaire, decribed himself as middle class. Good times.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 1/16/2021 at 4:38 PM, The Wondering Wolf said:

AfD around 11%

Hmm that’s rather disheartening assumption compounded by the fact I don’t think you’re being unreasonable.

[The Wondering Wolf]

18 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm that’s rather disheartening assumption compounded by the fact I don’t think you’re being unreasonable.

Today media reported that the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution is going to classify the AfD as 'suspected case'. While the intelligence service is already observing parts of the AfD, this would extend its observation opportunities to the whole party. And this could lead to conflicts among the party members. There are the ones who consider themselves mere conservatives and have a lot to loose if they get classified as enemies of the state, because they are employed at the police or universities. And there are the ones who think you have to fight the system and not give a damn about reputation. If we are lucky, they will get less than 10%, but noch much less in my opinion. 

I have to admit I am a bit less certain about Söder running for chancellor, though. Laschet may not step back if he does not see a reason why he should. And CSU candidates are always a bit suspicious to many because the party usually fights more for Bavarian interests than German ones (which is their reason to exist at all).

[Varysblackfyre321]

2 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Today media reported that the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution is going to classify the AfD as 'suspected case'. While the intelligence service is already observing parts of the AfD, this would extend its observation opportunities to the whole party. And this could lead to conflicts among the party members. There are the ones who consider themselves mere conservatives and have a lot to loose if they get classified as enemies of the state, because they are employed at the police or universities. And there are the ones who think you have to fight the system and not give a damn about reputation. If we are lucky, they will get less than 10%, but noch much less in my opinion. 

I have to admit I am a bit less certain about Söder running for chancellor, though. Laschet may not step back if he does not see a reason why he should. And CSU candidates are always a bit suspicious to many because the party usually fights more for Bavarian interests than German ones (which is their reason to exist at all).

We could only hope they implode from within.

[The Wondering Wolf]

2 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

We could only hope they implode from within.

That is what many are hoping for since they have been founded, but so far every conflict ended with the defeat of the 'moderate ones' (who were not really moderate from the beginning and got less moderate from time to time). At the moment it is the first time I think the right ones ('moderates' like Meuthen) and the ultra right ones (like Bernd Höcke) are even. I am kind of relieved that despite the corona crisis the AfD is not getting stronger, so if they will not perform well enough at the federal elections, it could be the first time both wings start to fight each other and neither is strong enough to win.

[Varysblackfyre321]

36 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

That is what many are hoping for since they have been founded, but so far every conflict ended with the defeat of the 'moderate ones' (who were not really moderate from the beginning and got less moderate from time to time). At the moment it is the first time I think the right ones ('moderates' like Meuthen) and the ultra right ones (like Bernd Höcke) are even. I am kind of relieved that despite the corona crisis the AfD is not getting stronger, so if they will not perform well enough at the federal elections, it could be the first time both wings start to fight each other and neither is strong enough to win.

True. The far right parties of the expels moderates and try to force everyone else to the right of them.

They do not moderate because they’re supporters love the extremity.

[The Wondering Wolf]

A few weeks ago the federal elections in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate took place and both Kretschmann (Greens) and Dreyer (SPD) were confirmed as Prime Ministers. Although Kretschmann could have formed a coalition with SPD and Liberals, he chose to continue working together with the CDU. Not sure how to feel about that. When asked why politics in Baden-Würtemberg were not more focused on climate protection, the Greens always pointed out that the CDU would prevent that. On the other hand the CDU performed so poorly and wanted to stay in government so badly that they may be easier to be managed than the Liberals who came off rather well. And in case of a Greens/SPD/Liberals coalition CDU and AfD would have been the opposition, which would have meant criticism only from the right wing.

I am not unhappy with the results of the AfD, though. In both BW and RP they lost a lot of votes (this also goes for the less important local elections in Hesse).

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Ah, so somebody bothered with bumping up the German politics thread.

Considering the state eleciton in BaWü and RP.

The first take away is probably, in times of crisis the incumbent bonus is quite big.

Kretschmann remains super popular in his home state, and Dreyer managed to carry her party to victory in her state. Which is bad news for the CDU, as the incumbent is not on the ballot again, and her heirs are not quite as popular. I am not particularly surprised Kretschmann decided to continue to do nothing with the CDU. Two party coalitions are easier to manage than three parties, and if they can continue to eat away at the CDU electorate while keeping the junior partners profile low. And it's not like they would've been able to pass major changes with the FDP. Might even be easier to compensate a few CDU votes with SPD votes this way.

Second take away those results for the CDU in their heartlands should worry them.

Third take away incompetence paired with corruption can hurt conservatives. Again the south west are traditional CDU heartlands.

Fourth take away. The SPD is in deep trouble. That's mainly a quick take from the local elections in Hessen. They even managed to lose in Kassel, which was pretty unthinkable a couple of years ago. But the Greens have managed to beat them there. In Hessen: overall the CDU more or less maintained their result from the previous cycle (28.9% vs 28.5%), the SPD who was head to head with them, lost quite a bit from there previous result (28.5% vs 24%) the Greens grew (11.3% vs 18.4%), the AfD lost quite a bit (11.9 to 6.9%) the FDP remained roughly level at 6.7% (6.4% previously).

So that was a pretty good election night all around for the Greens.

The next elections in Sachsen-Anhalt will be way less favourable terrain for them. Altho latest polls see them closer to 10% then 5% there, but I wouldn't trust those numbers at all. Any result that puts them safely above the magical 5% threshold there would be welcome news.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Is there anything special about Laschet that I missed? 

I get that he is not Söder or Merz which is plus I guess.

[Loge]

15 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Is there anything special about Laschet that I missed? 

I get that he is not Söder or Merz which is plus I guess.

He won North Rhine-Westphalia. And there isn't anybody else in the CDU.

[The Wondering Wolf]

If you have just been elected as chairman of the last big party, you have to run for chancellor as well. It wouldn't have been sustainable for the CDU to compromise their second party leader in a row. At least that's how the party establishment views the matter. The base is usually less focused on power politics and more focused on who and what makes them feel happy. 

[Loge]

21 minutes ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

If you have just been elected as chairman of the last big party, you have to run for chancellor as well. It wouldn't have been sustainable for the CDU to compromise their second party leader in a row. At least that's how the party establishment views the matter. The base is usually less focused on power politics and more focused on who and what makes them feel happy. 

That leaves the question: was it wise to elect him party chair? Time will tell. The real problem, though, is that Merkel didn't step down in time for a successor to run as incumbent.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Loge said:

That leaves the question: was it wise to elect him party chair? Time will tell. The real problem, though, is that Merkel didn't step down in time for a successor to run as incumbent.

That would've risked the SPD trying a hail mary and force an election by a vote of no confidence. I think they said as much. Even if Merkel had planned to step down halfway through her term, Corona would've put an end to that idea.

Baerbock vs Söder would've been a nightmare of a debate for him. Söder being Söder, he would've totally gone into a mansplaning meltdown.

6 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Is there anything special about Laschet that I missed? 

I get that he is not Söder or Merz which is plus I guess.

He claims to be a descendant of Charlelemagne. <Fill in little man with delusions of grandeur joke here.>

 

Ah, well. Now that we at least now the actual main contenders for chancellor's office, we can at least go back to totally ignore Olaf Scholz.

[Jon AS]

9 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Is there anything special about Laschet that I missed? 

Well, his crisis management has been especially ill-advided, indecisive and infuriating.

Other than that, as others have said: he was just elected party chair, if he'd been rejected for this they would have needed to go looking for a new one immediately (and at that point it probably would have been Merz *shudder*).

I don't find any of the parties/candidates that stand a chance of winning the chancellorship this fall particularly inspiring, but Laschet running gives me some hope one of the lesser evils might dethrone the CDU.