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German politics. Flinten-Uschi defying the laws of gravity


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49 minutes ago, Loge said:

I think a similar result is possible in Hamburg if the SPD wins all constituencies. 

IF Martin finally manages to retake Hamburg Nord. That'd be a 10 point increase. Possible since this year Hejduk (Anja Magarete Helene, just to write out her full name) isn't running again, and Beck hasn't quite her profile. So chances are Beck won't be getting 15% of the vote. And then the question is, whether Scholz as former Mayor is bonus or malus for Martin. But I think Ploß :ack: (which I assume is the sound a giraffe makes throwing up) will keep it.

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On 9/25/2021 at 5:35 PM, Toth said:

Mmh, but as it is now, it doesn't look like they have enough votes for a Grand Coalition,

Just want to reiterate, that I called it. Both of has been big parties are projected to be around 25%, that's enough. Overhangs will probably seal the deal for Laschet (if the CDU doesn't axe him).

Since the ARD just had Weidel on. Time for an appropriate song. I think the ARD should be required by law to play it, when they bring on air.

Going back to the Bundestag XXL, and Bavaria's role in it. Another song from my misspent youth comes to mind.

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6 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

Red-red-green is out.

As another Grand Coalition seems impossible, too (thank the gods, but the alternatives aren't necessarily better), the Greens and the effing FDP will be courted by both the SPD and CDU...

Do you see other results than I? Last thing I saw, they'd be able to continue. Barely, but a majority, is a majority, is a majority.

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2 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Do you see other results than I? Last thing I saw, they'd be able to continue. Barely, but a majority, is a majority, is a majority.

They could, but I only see that happening if neither the CDU nor the SPD can get the Greens and the FDP on board. And that seems unlikely, even with Lindner being as capricious as he is.

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2 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

I was going off the prognoses as reported by das Erste; unlike ZDF, they had both SPD and CDU at 25%.

First forecast: 24,7% (CDU), 24,9% (SPD)

Yep,, and they just showed them being comfortably over the threshold.

Spiegel also has them as potential majority.

Only thing that doesn't work is RRG.

 

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

They could, but I only see that happening if neither the CDU nor the SPD can get the Greens and the FDP on board. And that seems unlikely, even with Lindner being as capricious as he is.

I have a continuation of the Grand Coalition as most likely scenario.

Jamaica is the next likely, SPD along side the Greens and FDP as the least likely.

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1 minute ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I have a continuation of the Grand Coalition as most likely scenario.

Jamaica is the next likely, SPD along side the Greens and FDP as the least likely.

I'd say Jamaica is the most likeliest scenario. The Greens desperately want to be in charge again. And Lindner has learned his lesson after the last election. He won't stand in the way of a coalition, either.

A Grand Coalition is only possible if Jamaica doesn't work.

The FDP won't agree to a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, but the Greens won't refuse an offer for a Jamaica coalition.

If the SPD were to be the strongest party they might be short Sondierungsgespräche for SPD-Greens-FDP, but that will only be pretense. If Laschet makes the race he'll forge a Jamaica coalition without much difficulty.

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4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd say Jamaica is the most likeliest scenario. The Greens desperately want to be in charge again. And Lindner has learned his lesson after the last election. He won't stand in the way of a coalition, either.

A Grand Coalition is only possible if Jamaica doesn't work.

The FDP won't agree to a coalition with the SPD and the Greens, but the Greens won't refuse an offer for a Jamaica coalition.

If the SPD were to be the strongest party they might be short Sondierungsgespräche for SPD-Greens-FDP, but that will only be pretense. If Laschet makes the race he'll forge a Jamaica coalition without much difficulty.

Remains to be seen.

We'd have three Alpha males setting their sights on the ministry of finance. Merz :ack:, Lindner :rolleyes: and Habeck. That's on top of the political differences between FDP and Greens.

Overall I still think the Grand Coalition is way more likely.

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4 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

These 4 parties share far more values with each other than with the other parties though and Laschet seems to be pretty far to the right of Merkel.

But not that far. His so called competence team had the education minister from Schleswig-Holstein, who very thinly veiled asked voters in Thüringen not to vote for Maaßen. Her response to whether she would vote for him was something along the lines, that she had always been fascinated by athletes (the SPD candidate running in that district is former Biathlete Frank Ulrich).

 

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30 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

We'd have three Alpha males setting their sights on the ministry of finance. Merz :ack:, Lindner :rolleyes: and Habeck. That's on top of the political differences between FDP and Greens.

Overall I still think the Grand Coalition is way more likely.

There are not that many real differences ... or rather: there are not many real differences the Greens cannot overcome if they will be part of the government.

I don't see Merz having a shot at the ministry of finance in a three party coalition - and if there was another Grand Coalition then the party who doesn't have the Chancellor will demand and get the ministry of finance.

I'd expect that Baerbock becomes minister of foreign affairs with Lindner possibly getting the ministry of finance. And, of course, Andi Scheuer will continue in his old job ;-).

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3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There are not that many real differences ... or rather: there are not many real differences the Greens cannot overcome if they will be part of the government.

The Greens have a younger more leftish group of MPs this time around. That kinda makes life for Habeck and Baerbock as the most likely negotiators somewhat more difficult. There are a couple of fundamental differences wrt to social and tax policies, where the Greens are somewhat more likely to move if they get something in return. Then we have the issue of climate policies, where the FDP would need to move. I don't think the Greens can really sell out there. They'd have to get their compromise through a party convention. Habeck himself questioned, whether they would've been able to get their deal through last time around. And that was very obviously not enough for the yellow collaborateurs.

Either way, once the two small parties have an agreement in place, they can offer that deal to either party. There I think the CDU is more likely to bite.

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Don't know German politics well enough to contribute to the debate, but can anyone recommend good German-language accounts to follow on Twitter? I'd like to start paying more attention to politics/current events/culture again, and Twitter helps by hooking my interest regularly.  At the moment, I just follow Der Spiegel. 

Just spent ten minutes looking up the coalition nicknames. 

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1 hour ago, dog-days said:

Don't know German politics well enough to contribute to the debate, but can anyone recommend good German-language accounts to follow on Twitter? I'd like to start paying more attention to politics/current events/culture again, and Twitter helps by hooking my interest regularly.  At the moment, I just follow Der Spiegel. 

Just spent ten minutes looking up the coalition nicknames. 

I don't follow many German accounts. For satire, check out heute-show, extra3, Die Anstalt and Die Partei. You could also try newspapers like Frankfurter Rundschau, FAZ, taz. TV stations: daserste, zdf, Phoenix. tagesschau (most important news show)

 

Here's a graphic on what government (leader) the voter groups prefer:

Just found on twitter:

Finde jemanden, der dir deine Fehler so verzeihen kann, wie deutsche Wähler der CDU.

And:

 

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