German politics. Flinten-Uschi defying the laws of gravity

[Arakan]

1 minute ago, Mindwalker said:

Shockingly, most of the first-time voters voted for the FDP (liberals). Even more so than for the Greens.

That was also my what the fuck moment but then after thinking about it for a while it totally makes sense for Generation Insta. Faking, posing, get rich or die trying, get the fame no matter how. Form over content and substance. Get that marketing slogans and #philosophy in. Do you wanna become a life coach? Occupation: consultant 
Hey it’s all about Brand Value, let me promote your stuff . #lifeisgood 

In that light the FDP (which is all of the above) fits quite well with that sub Milieu of the young generation (they exist as well but media focuses way more on the idealistic FFF).

[DMC]

6 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

I'd say the closest US equivalent would probably be the Clintonian wing of the US Democrats.

Meh, I'd say the German party most closely representing the Clintonian triangulation and center-oriented approach is Merkel's CDU.  The classical liberalism of the FDP is most closely associated with American libertarians, or simply disaffected right-leaning independents - as reflected by their strength with younger and infrequent voters.

Anyway, it's quite the juxtaposition reading the coverage of the SPD pulling out a narrow win yesterday while everyone on this thread seems convinced the CDU will end up leading the governing coalition.  Not saying the latter's wrong, but seems to me a traffic light coalition is the most logical outcome based on yesterday's results.

[The Wondering Wolf]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

Remembering the Möllemann FDP   

Sure, but in the end he was cast out because the FDP suffered too much damage from him. It's not because the FDP is such a good and nice party, it's because their voters usually are there for the capitalism bullshit, not the racism bullshit.

[Mindwalker]

They aren't racist, quite the contrary: the bigger the pool of people to exploit, the better! Er, I mean they're cosmopolitan.

[Arakan]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Meh, I'd say the German party most closely representing the Clintonian triangulation and center-oriented approach is Merkel's CDU.  The classical liberalism of the FDP is most closely associated with American libertarians, or simply disaffected right-leaning independents - as reflected by their strength with younger and infrequent voters.

Anyway, it's quite the juxtaposition reading the coverage of the SPD pulling out a narrow win yesterday while everyone on this thread seems convinced the CDU will end up leading the governing coalition.  Not saying the latter's wrong, but seems to me a traffic light coalition is the most logical outcome based on yesterday's results.

I think it’s more a bit of disappointment. Most in this thread (me included) don’t like the FDP with their typical pro-business, pro-market, low tax (for the rich) mantra and their „the market will solve everything“ credo. It’s the party of the neoliberal yuppies and bankers, trickle down economics and what not. Wasn’t always the case but they forgot sometime in the 90s the political part in their classic liberalism. 

But they will be part of a new government and that sickens a bit. 

[Zorral]

55 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

They aren't racist, quite the contrary: the bigger the pool of people to exploit, the better! Er, I mean they're cosmopolitan.

Like the Hansa League? (though established prior to Protestanism) but they were about nothing BUT profit. The deal was sacrifice yourself and relatives and friends if not doing so would cut into your League City's profit.

[Fez]

I know very little to nothing about German politics, so I won't try to make any guesses about what the next government looks like. I do have a larger question though. The two largest parties, who are also the closest to the center (I think), have just had their lowest combined vote % since 1990, or since 1949 if you look at West elections. Prior to this, 2017 had the lowest combined %, and before that 2013 did.

In other countries, this kind of change seems to usually be accompanied by increased polarization and political gridlock, along with extremist parties gaining strength by focusing more messaging on economic popularism. Is Germany at a growing risk for this as well? Or is there enough ideological overlap between the mainstream parties that they'll be able to cooperate relatively easily once a government is in place?

[Arakan]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

The classical liberalism of the FDP is most closely associated with American libertarians, or simply disaffected right-leaning independents - as reflected by their strength with younger and infrequent voters.

This is how the FDP would like to be seen, the party promoting the classic 19th century liberalism but that’s a lie. Your libertarians over there in the US, they at least believe in something, have some universal idealism, no matter how whacky. At least this is how it seems to me. Example would be Ron Paul. Yes, from an economic point of view he would be FDP but he also had a political side, total personal Freedom, anti-interventionist, anti-neocolonial policies, citizen rights etc. 

The FDP is just about the Money Part, they believe in nothing except status, money, lifestyle, fame. 

[Arakan]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

I know very little to nothing about German politics, so I won't try to make any guesses about what the next government looks like. I do have a larger question though. The two largest parties, who are also the closest to the center (I think), have just had their lowest combined vote % since 1990, or since 1949 if you look at West elections. Prior to this, 2017 had the lowest combined %, and before that 2013 did.

In other countries, this kind of change seems to usually be accompanied by increased polarization and political gridlock, along with extremist parties gaining strength by focusing more messaging on economic popularism. Is Germany at a growing risk for this as well? Or is there enough ideological overlap between the mainstream parties that they'll be able to cooperate relatively easily once a government is in place?

The FDP is money-radical but otherwise relatively mainstream. The Greens moved quite to the center as well, which leaves the Left and the AfD. One can disagree with the Left but on a personal matter, they are good people. The AfD is the big bogey man but they couldn’t gain in West Germany. They are now biggest party in large parts of the East, which is a huge worry. 

But to answer your question correctly I have to go meta and „philosophical“. In Germany the biggest political value is „consensus“, finding the best possible solution at all costs and of course „stability“. Germans expect their parties to work together in the end anr don’t make too much of a show. Different mindset to „winning at all costs“. It makes German politics often quite boring but it guarantees that coalition can be formed. 

Coalition building means compromising and compromising is the opposite of polarization. The big exception being the AfD.

 

 

 

[Toth]

10 minutes ago, Fez said:

In other countries, this kind of change seems to usually be accompanied by increased polarization and political gridlock, along with extremist parties gaining strength by focusing more messaging on economic popularism. Is Germany at a growing risk for this as well? Or is there enough ideological overlap between the mainstream parties that they'll be able to cooperate relatively easily once a government is in place?

To expand upon Arakan's answer, you don't have to overlook the very strong federalism aspect of the German constitution. Altogether we have 17 governments where nearly every possible combination of coalitions has been tried out in one way or another. The parties can't afford to burn too many bridges, though this particular campaign contained quite some villification of the Greens and the SPD by the Union and the FDP, which makes me quite frustrated about any possible coalition talks. And yes, this means all parties have a strong push to centrism, which actually is a major source for voter frustration because all parties feel the same and you easily get the impression that your vote doesn't matter.

Though it should be noted that CDU/CSU and Die Linke have some elements that had been more or less openly tried to compete with the far-right populist AfD, mostly because them cutting into the CDU's right fringe and the Left's Eastern German strongholds hurt them very much. One of my main concerns with Laschet is that he seems a bit too eager to placate his party's fringe lunatics by handing them offices while Merkel before did her best to pretend they don't exist. That the AfD had been loosing votes despite trying to hijack the corona denier crowd in addition to their usual 'we are against everything and take every cartoonishly evil position imaginable' is somewhat encouraging, though their grip on Saxonia is indeed deeply concerning. We will probably have to evacuate Leipzig and then cede that whole region to Czechia.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

This is how the FDP would like to be seen, the party promoting the classic 19th century liberalism but that’s a lie. Your libertarians over there in the US, they at least believe in something, have some universal idealism, no matter how whacky. At least this is how it seems to me. Example would be Ron Paul. Yes, from an economic point of view he would be FDP but he also had a political side, total personal Freedom, anti-interventionist, anti-neocolonial policies, citizen rights etc. 

The FDP is just about the Money Part, they believe in nothing except status, money, lifestyle, fame. 

Meh I think you're idealizing American libertarians.  Generally they're just about the money part as well.  Ron Paul was a solid Reaganite Republican whose break with the GOP was wholly based on economic issues (taxes/spending/size of government) in the 80s.  His "civil liberties" cred is also betrayed by encouraging racist policies and politics - to the extent of opposing the CRA and VRA.

[Arakan]

1 hour ago, Toth said:

The parties can't afford to burn too many bridges, though this particular campaign contained quite some villification of the Greens and the SPD by the Union and the FDP, which makes me quite frustrated about any possible coalition talks.

Speak it out loud. What the conservatives and FDP have done in the last 4 weeks is simply devious, callous and beyond any morality. To fearmonger about „historic left shift“ while at the same time corona deniers, anti maskers and rightwing extremists murder a 20 year old student because of a fucking mask, this is Trumpism. Meanwhile it was the anniversary of the Hanau massacre (15 km from where I live). Those people in the Union and FDP didn’t give a shit, they are amoral bastards.

[Arakan]

1 minute ago, DMC said:

Meh I think you're idealizing American libertarians.  Generally they're just about the money part as well.  Ron Paul was a solid Reaganite Republican whose break with the GOP was wholly based on economic issues (taxes/spending/size of government) in the 80s.  His "civil liberties" cred is also betrayed by encouraging racist policies and politics - to the extent of opposing the CRA and VRA.

Ah ok, guess you are right. I remember Ron Paul to be against military interventions though. It was nice to hear a different Republican voice from time to time. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

1 hour ago, Arakan said:

One can disagree with the Left but on a personal matter, they are good people.

There are good people in the party, certainly.

However, calling Oscar Fremdarbeiter Lafontaine and Sarah Lifestyle Linke Wagenknecht good people is pushing it.

If there was a way to launch a rocketship into the sun with all the AfD folks, I will happily direct that couple to their seats.

A friend of mine voted for that party, and he I am fairly certain, he will gladly help the two of them pack for their journey.

[Arakan]

6 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

There are good people in the party, certainly.

However, calling Oscar Fremdarbeiter Lafontaine and Sarah Lifestyle Linke Wagenknecht good people is pushing it.

If there was a way to launch a rocketship into the sun with all the AfD folks, I will happily direct that couple to their seats.

A friend of mine voted for that party, and he I am fairly certain, he will gladly help the two of them pack for their journey.

I will not argue about those two but, you have them everywhere (Sarazin, Boris Palmer).

During the campaign it was awesome here in Frankfurt, no matter SPD, Greens or Linke. All brothers and sisters, differences yes, some more progressive, others more cautious, but like differences in a family (I am SPD member I have to admit). Our dream was RRG. 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Arakan said:

Ah ok, guess you are right. I remember Ron Paul to be against military interventions though. It was nice to hear a different Republican voice from time to time. 

That's true, his noninterventionism was unique and generally legit.  I'd just apply that more to a Paul eccentricity than representative of libertarians by-and-large (albeit that facet certainly did help Paul attract younger voters).

[A Horse Named Stranger]

3 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

Sure, but in the end he was cast out because the FDP suffered too much damage from him. It's not because the FDP is such a good and nice party, it's because their voters usually are there for the capitalism bullshit, not the racism bullshit.

Are you implying, that he flew too high for the FDP, before coming back down to earth crashing?

[JoannaL]

2 hours ago, Fez said:

I know very little to nothing about German politics, so I won't try to make any guesses about what the next government looks like. I do have a larger question though. The two largest parties, who are also the closest to the center (I think), have just had their lowest combined vote % since 1990, or since 1949 if you look at West elections. Prior to this, 2017 had the lowest combined %, and before that 2013 did.

In other countries, this kind of change seems to usually be accompanied by increased polarization and political gridlock, along with extremist parties gaining strength by focusing more messaging on economic popularism. Is Germany at a growing risk for this as well? Or is there enough ideological overlap between the mainstream parties that they'll be able to cooperate relatively easily once a government is in place?

No, this was a great result for anti-polarization. The parties on the far right and left lost ( in case of the left the lost even very strong and almost didnt make it into parlament, - and I am happy about that - there are also really strange idiots there - remember the lets shoot the 2 % richest people when we are finally in charge discussion?). In my opinion a great result overall and we will see traffic light and no jamaika. I also disagree with the analysis of the FDP. If you see the election behavior broken down on age groups its the Greens and FDP the younger age group  elected and the older elected the SPD and CDU. For the last 4 years we had a coalition of parties of pensioneers and to break that up with parties interest in climate and education ( and yes, education and science and digitalisation are core fields of the FDP its not only about money even if the left want to smear them with that) is really so much better and  forward looking.

[Arakan]

16 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

No, this was a great result for anti-polarization. The parties on the far right and left lost ( in case of the left the lost even very strong and almost didnt make it into parlament, - and I am happy about that - there are also really strange idiots there - remember the lets shoot the 2 % richest people when we are finally in charge discussion?). In my opinion a great result overall and we will see traffic light and no jamaika. I also disagree with the analysis of the FDP. If you see the election behavior broken down on age groups its the Greens and FDP the younger age group  elected and the older elected the SPD and CDU. For the last 4 years we had a coalition of parties of pensioneers and to break that up with parties interest in climate and education ( and yes, education and science and digitalisation are core fields of the FDP its not only about money even if the left want to smear them with that) is really so much better and  forward looking.

Yeah the progressive FDP, gimme a Break :))). But let’s just agree to disagree. When I see helping FDP youths giving refugees water to drink I will change my opinion. They are entitled, arrogant, thinking they are better than everyone else. Don’t hijack the Green Base. But let’s agree to disagree. We obviously have a different perception of that party. 

But please stop your devious false equivalence. Remember Hanau, remember Lübke, remember NSU, remember Alex. Since 1990 something like 300 rightwing murders vs. 1 or 2 leftwing murders. Not woulda coulda shoulda, but the reality. 

[Paxter]

From the outside looking in, it seems slightly absurd that the CDU is still laying claim to the Chancellorship despite having their worst ever result, while the SPD had its best result since the Schroder era.

What exactly does it take to convince these guys that they didn't win :P.